1961-2005年西藏飞蝗潜在分布的变化

青藏高原是气候变暖的敏感地区, 温度是影响青藏高原昆虫分布的重要因素。作为青藏高原的本地物种的蝗虫, 西藏飞蝗Locusta migratoria tibetensis Chen对高原升温的反应就是获得的有效积温增加, 分布范围扩大。为了准确估计西藏飞蝗发生面积, 以期为西藏飞蝗监测、 预警及控制提供依据, 本研究以1961－2005年90个高原气象站点地面温度资料计算了西藏飞蝗的有效积温(accumulated degree-days, ADD), 建立了1961－2005年有效积温与地理位置的模型; 并根据这些模型利用GIS技术, 计算了各年西藏飞蝗的潜在分布面积(area of potential distribution, APD)。结果表明： 温度升高能明显增加西藏飞蝗获得的有效积温, 西藏飞蝗的分布主要沿高原河谷分布。1961－2005年, 西藏飞蝗平均潜在分布面积为91 081 km², 约占高原面积3%; 次热年1998年西藏飞蝗的潜在分布面积最大, 达142 988 km², 是最冷年1968年的1.9倍。相关分析表明： 西藏飞蝗潜在发生面积与年平均地面温度显著相关。趋势线分析表明： 45年间青藏高原每年平均增温0.0301℃, 而西藏飞蝗潜在发生面积平均每年增加504.38 km², 两者之比为16 756.8, 温度的增加能够引起西藏飞蝗潜在分布面积大幅上升。本文为全球气候变暖对青藏高原生态的影响提供了事例依据。     

Climate change at the landscape scale: predicting fine-grained spatial heterogeneity in warming and potential refugia for vegetation

Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are based on coarse‐grained climate surfaces or idealized scenarios of uniform warming. These predictions may erroneously estimate the risk of extinction because they neglect to consider spatially heterogenous warming at the landscape scale or identify refugia where species can persist despite unfavourable regional climate. To address this issue, we investigated the heterogeneity in warming that has occurred in a 10 km × 10 km area from 1972 to 2007. We developed estimates by combining long‐term daily observations from a limited number of weather stations with a more spatially comprehensive dataset (40 sites) obtained during 2005–2006. We found that the spatial distribution of warming was greater inland, at lower elevations, away from streams, and at sites exposed to the northwest (NW). These differences corresponded with changes in weather patterns, such as an increasing frequency of hot, dry NW winds. As plant species were biased in the topographic and geographic locations they occupied, these differences meant that some species experienced more warming than others, and are at greater risk from climate change. This species bias could not be detected at coarser scales. The uneven seasonal nature of warming (e.g. more warming in winter, minimums increased more than maximums) means that climate change predictions will vary according to which predictors are selected in species distribution models. Models based on a limited set of predictors will produce erroneous predictions when the correct limiting factor is not selected, and this is difficult to avoid when temperature predictors are correlated because they are produced using elevation‐sensitive interpolations. The results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse‐grained (∼50 km) temperature surfaces, and suggest that the accuracy of this process could be improved by considering regional weather patterns (wind speed, direction, humidity) and topographic exposure to key wind directions.     

Forest composition in Mediterranean mountains is projected to shift along the entire elevational gradient under climate change

Aim Species distribution models have been used frequently to assess the effects of climate change on mountain biodiversity. However, the value and accuracy of these assessments have been hampered by the use of low‐resolution data for species distributions and climatic conditions. Herein we assess potential changes in the distribution and community composition of tree species in two mountainous regions of Spain under specific scenarios of climate change using data with a high spatial resolution. We also describe potential changes in species distributions and tree communities along the entire elevational gradient. Location Two mountain ranges in southern Europe: the Central Mountain Range (central west of the Iberian Peninsula), and the Iberian Mountain Range (central east). Methods We modelled current and future distributions of 15 tree species (Eurosiberian, sub‐Mediterranean and Mediterranean species) as functions of climate, lithology and availability of soil water using generalized linear models (logistic regression) and machine learning models (gradient boosting). Using multivariate ordination of a matrix of presence/absence of tree species obtained under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2) for two different periods in the future (2041–70 and 2071–2100), we assessed the predicted changes in the composition of tree communities. Results The models predicted an upward migration of communities of Mediterranean trees to higher elevations and an associated decline in communities of temperate or cold‐adapted trees during the 21st century. It was predicted that 80–99% of the area that shows a climate suitable for cold–wet‐optimum Eurosiberian coniferous and broad‐leaved species will be lost. The largest overall changes were predicted for Mediterranean species found currently at low elevations, such as Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota and Juniperus oxycedrus, with sharp increases in their range of 350%. Main conclusions It is likely that areas with climatic conditions suitable for cold‐adapted species will decrease significantly under climate warming. Large changes in species ranges and forest communities might occur, not only at high elevations within Mediterranean mountains but also along the entire elevational gradient throughout this region, particularly at low and mid‐elevations. Mediterranean mountains might lose their key role as refugia for cold‐adapted species and thus an important part of their genetic heritage.     

Comparative phylogeography of five avian species: implications for Pleistocene evolutionary history in the Qinghai‐Tibetan plateau

Pleistocene climate fluctuations have shaped the patterns of genetic diversity observed in extant species. In contrast to Europe and North America where the effects of recent glacial cycles on genetic diversity have been well studied, the genetic legacy of the Pleistocene for the Qinghai‐Tibetan (Tibetan) plateau, a region where glaciation was not synchronous with the North Hemisphere ice sheet maxima, remains poorly understood. Here, we compared the phylogeographical patterns of five avian species on the Qinghai‐Tibetan plateau by three mitochondrial DNA fragments: the Tibetan snow finch (Montifringilla adamsi), the Blanford’s snow finch (Pyrgilauda blanfordi), the horned lark (Eremophila alpestris), the twite (Carduelis flavirostris) and the black redstart (Phoenicurus ochruros). Our results revealed the three species mostly distributed on the platform region of the plateau that experienced population expansion following the retreat of the extensive glaciation period (0.5–0.175 Ma). These results are at odds with the results from avian species of Europe and North America, where population expansions occurred after Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 0.023–0.018 Ma). A single refugium was identified in a restricted semi‐continuous area around the eastern margin of the plateau, instead of multiple independent refugia for European and North American species. For the other two species distributed on the edges of the plateau (the twite and black redstart), populations were maintained at stable levels. Edge areas are located on the eastern margin, which might have had little or no ice cover during the glaciation period. Thus, milder climate may have mitigated demographic stresses for edge species relative to the extremes experienced by platform counterparts, the present‐day ranges of which were heavily ice covered during the glaciation period. Finally, various behavioural and ecological characteristics, including dispersal capacities, habitat preference and altitude specificity along with evolutionary history might have helped to shape different phylogeographical structures appearing in these five species.     

The future of cold‐adapted plants in changing climates: Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) as a case study

Research has shown species undergoing range contractions and/or northward and higher elevational movements as a result of changing climates. Here, we evaluate how the distribution of a group of cold‐adapted plant species with similar evolutionary histories changes in response to warming climates. We selected 29 species of Micranthes (Saxifragaceae) representing the mountain and Arctic biomes of the Northern Hemisphere. For this analysis, 24,755 data points were input into ecological niche models to assess both present fundamental niches and predicted future ranges under climate change scenarios. Comparisons were made across the Northern Hemisphere between all cold‐adapted Micranthes, including Arctic species, montane species, and species defined as narrow endemics. Under future climate change models, 72% of the species would occupy smaller geographical areas than at present. This loss of habitat is most pronounced in Arctic species in general, but is also prevalent in species restricted to higher elevations in mountains. Additionally, narrowly endemic species restricted to high elevations were more susceptible to habitat loss than those species found at lower elevations. Using a large dataset and modeling habitat suitability at a global scale, our results empirically model the threats to cold‐adapted species as a result of warming climates. Although Arctic and alpine biomes share many underlying climate similarities, such as cold and short growing seasons, our results confirm that species in these climates have varied responses to climate change and that key abiotic variables differ between these two habitats.     

The permafrost carbon inventory on the Tibetan Plateau: a new evaluation using deep sediment cores

The permafrost organic carbon (OC) stock is of global significance because of its large pool size and the potential positive feedback to climate warming. However, due to the lack of systematic field observations and appropriate upscaling methodologies, substantial uncertainties exist in the permafrost OC budget, which limits our understanding of the fate of frozen carbon in a warming world. In particular, the lack of comprehensive estimates of OC stocks across alpine permafrost means that current knowledge on this issue remains incomplete. Here, we evaluated the pool size and spatial variations of permafrost OC stock to 3 m depth on the Tibetan Plateau by combining systematic measurements from a substantial number of pedons (i.e. 342 three‐metre‐deep cores and 177 50‐cm‐deep pits) with a machine learning technique (i.e. support vector machine, SVM). We also quantified uncertainties in permafrost carbon budget by conducting Monte Carlo simulations. Our results revealed that the combination of systematic measurements with the SVM model allowed spatially explicit estimates to be made. The OC density (OC amount per unit area, OCD) exhibited a decreasing trend from the south‐eastern to the north‐western plateau, with the exception that OCD in the swamp meadow was substantially higher than that in surrounding regions. Our results also demonstrated that Tibetan permafrost stored a large amount of OC in the top 3 m, with the median OC pool size being 15.31 Pg C (interquartile range: 13.03–17.77 Pg C). 44% of OC occurred in deep layers (i.e. 100–300 cm), close to the proportion observed across the northern circumpolar permafrost region. The large carbon pool size together with significant permafrost thawing suggests a risk of carbon emissions and positive climate feedback across the Tibetan alpine permafrost region.     

Long‐term physiological and growth responses of Himalayan fir to environmental change are mediated by mean climate

High‐elevation forests are experiencing high rates of warming, in combination with CO₂ rise and (sometimes) drying trends. In these montane systems, the effects of environmental changes on tree growth are also modified by elevation itself, thus complicating our ability to predict effects of future climate change. Tree‐ring analysis along an elevation gradient allows quantifying effects of gradual and annual environmental changes. Here, we study long‐term physiological (ratio of internal to ambient CO₂, i.e., C_i/C_a and intrinsic water‐use efficiency, iWUE) and growth responses (tree‐ring width) of Himalayan fir (Abies spectabilis) trees in response to warming, drying, and CO₂ rise. Our study was conducted along elevational gradients in a dry and a wet region in the central Himalaya. We combined dendrochronology and stable carbon isotopes (δ¹³C) to quantify long‐term trends in C_i/C_a ratio and iWUE (δ¹³C‐derived), growth (mixed‐effects models), and evaluate climate sensitivity (correlations). We found that iWUE increased over time at all elevations, with stronger increase in the dry region. Climate–growth relations showed growth‐limiting effects of spring moisture (dry region) and summer temperature (wet region), and negative effects of temperature (dry region). We found negative growth trends at lower elevations (dry and wet regions), suggesting that continental‐scale warming and regional drying reduced tree growth. This interpretation is supported by δ¹³C‐derived long‐term physiological responses, which are consistent with responses to reduced moisture and increased vapor pressure deficit. At high elevations (wet region), we found positive growth trends, suggesting that warming has favored tree growth in regions where temperature most strongly limits growth. At lower elevations (dry and wet regions), the positive effects of CO₂ rise did not mitigate the negative effects of warming and drying on tree growth. Our results raise concerns on the productivity of Himalayan fir forests at low and middle (<3,300 m) elevations as climate change progresses.     

Seed dispersers help plants to escape global warming

Plants are shifting their ranges towards higher elevations in response to global warming, yet such shifts are occurring at a rate slower than is needed to keep pace with a rapidly changing climate. There is, however, an almost complete lack of knowledge on seed dispersal across altitude, a key process to understand what constrains climate‐driven range shifts. Here, we report the first direct empirical evidence on altitudinal seed dispersal mediated by two common frugivorous mammals: the red fox Vulpes vulpes and the pine marten Martes martes. We conducted a three‐year (bait‐marking) experiment in a mountainous region of Spain. We offered experimental fruits containing colour‐coded seed mimics at feeding stations that simulated source trees. The colour codes allowed us to identify the exact origin of seed mimics found later in mammal scats. Nearly half (47%) of the dispersal events occurred towards higher elevations, despite only ca 25% of the study area being above the average altitude of the feeding stations (1344 m). Seeds dispersed uphill gained an average of 106 m (median = 111 m) and a maximum of 288 m, greatly exceeding the estimated requirements to escape warming (35.4 m per decade). Yet, foxes mediated much more uphill seed dispersal than martens (57% and 26% of dispersal events, respectively), which can be explained by between‐disperser differences in home range size and habitat specificity. Dispersers with larger home ranges move farther and potentially disperse more seeds to higher altitudes, while habitat generalism is necessary to transport seeds above vegetation belts delimiting contrasting habitat types. We discuss how both traits (home range size and habitat specificity) can be used to infer altitudinal seed dispersal across disperser species and mountainous landscapes.     

Phenology model from surface meteorology does not capture satellite-based greenup estimations

Seasonal temperature change in temperate forests is known to trigger the start of spring growth, and both interannual and spatial variations in spring onset have been tied to climatic variability. Satellite dates are increasingly being used in phenology studies, but to date that has been little effort to link remotely sensed phenology to surface climate records. In this research, we use a two‐parameter spring warming phenology model to explore the relationship between climate and satellite‐based phenology. We employ daily air temperature records between 2000 and 2005 for 171 National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration weather stations located throughout New England to construct spring warming models predicting the onset of spring, as defined by the date of half‐maximum greenness (D₅₀) in deciduous forests as detected from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The best spring warming model starts accumulating temperatures after March 20th and when average daily temperatures exceed 5°C. The accumulated heat sums [heating degree day (HDD)] required to reach D₅₀ range from 150 to 300 degree days over New England, with the highest requirements to the south and in coastal regions. We test the ability of the spring warming model to predict phenology against a null photoperiod model (average date of onset). The spring warming model offers little improvement on the null model when predicting D₅₀. Differences between the efficacies of the two models are expressed as the ‘climate sensitivity ratio’ (CSR), which displays coherent spatial patterns. Our results suggest that northern (beech‐maple‐birch) and central (oak‐hickory) hardwood forests respond to climate differently, particularly with disparate requirements for the minimum temperature necessary to begin spring growth (3 and 6°C, respectively). We conclude that spatial location and species composition are critical factors for predicting the phenological response to climate change: satellite observations cannot be linked directly to temperature variability if species or community compositions are unknown.     

Leaf area index and net primary productivity along subtropical to alpine gradients in the Tibetan Plateau

Aim Our aims were to quantify climatic and soil controls on net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) along subtropical to alpine gradients where the vegetation remains relatively undisturbed, and investigate whether NPP and LAI converge towards threshold‐like logistic patterns associated with climatic and soil variables that would help us to verify and parameterize process models for predicting future ecosystem behaviour under global environmental change. Location Field data were collected from 22 sites along the Tibetan Alpine Vegetation Transects (TAVT) during 1999–2000. The TAVT included the altitudinal transect on the eastern slope of the Gongga Mountains in the Eastern Tibetan Plateau, with altitudes from 1900 m to 3700 m, and the longitudinal‐latitudinal transect in the Central Tibetan Plateau, of approximately 1000 km length and 40 km width. Methods LAI was measured as the product of foliage biomass multiplied by the ratio of specific leaf area. NPP in forests and shrub communities was estimated as the sum of increases in standing crops of live vegetation using recent stem growth rate and leaf lifespan. NPP in grasslands was estimated from the above‐ground maximum live biomass. We measured the soil organic carbon (C) and total and available nitrogen (N) contents and their pool sizes by conventional methods. Mean temperatures for the year, January and July and annual precipitation were estimated from available meteorological stations by interpolation or simulation. The threshold‐like logistic function was used to model the relationships of LAI and NPP with climatic and soil variables. Results Geographically, NPP and LAI both significantly decreased with increasing latitude (P < 0.02), but increased with increasing longitude (P < 0.01). Altitudinal trends in NPP and LAI showed different patterns. NPP generally decreased with increasing altitude in a linear relationship (r² = 0.73, P < 0.001), whereas LAI showed a negative quadratic relationship with altitude (r² = 0.58, P < 0.001). Temperature and precipitation, singly or in combination, explained 60–68% of the NPP variation with logistic relationships, while the soil organic C and total N variables explained only 21–46% of the variation with simple linear regressions of log‐transformed data. LAI showed significant logistic relationships with both climatic and soil variables, but the data from alpine spruce‐fir sites diverged greatly from the modelled patterns associated with temperature and precipitation. Soil organic C storage had the strongest correlation with LAI (r² = 0.68, P < 0.001). Main conclusions In response to climatic gradients along the TAVT, LAI and NPP across diverse vegetation types converged towards threshold‐like logistic patterns consistent with the general distribution patterns of live biomass both above‐ground and below‐ground found in our earlier studies. Our analysis further revealed that climatic factors strongly limited the NPP variations along the TAVT because the precipitation gradient characterized not only the vegetation distribution but also the soil N conditions of the natural ecosystems. LAI generally increased with increasing precipitation and was well correlated with soil organic C and total N variables. The interaction between LAI growth and soil N availability would appear to have important implications for ecosystem structure and function of alpine spruce‐fir forests. Convergence towards logistic patterns in dry matter production of plants in the TAVT suggests that alpine plant growth would increase in a nonlinear response to global warming.     

Carbon dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau during the 20th century: an analysis with a process‐based biogeochemical model

Aim The Tibetan Plateau accounts for about a quarter of the total land area of China and has a variety of ecosystems ranging from alpine tundra to evergreen tropics. Its soils are dominated by permafrost and are rich in organic carbon. Its climate is unique due to the influence of the Asian monsoon and its complex topography. To date, the carbon dynamics of the Tibetan Plateau have not been well quantified under changes of climate and permafrost conditions. Here we use a process‐based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), which was incorporated with a soil thermal model, to examine the permafrost dynamics and their effects on carbon dynamics on the plateau during the past century. Location The Tibetan Plateau. Methods We parameterize and verify the TEM using the existing data for soil temperature, permafrost distribution and carbon and nitrogen from the region. We then extrapolate the model and parameters to the whole plateau. Results During the 20th century, the Tibetan Plateau changed from a small carbon source or neutral in the early part of the century to a sink later, with a large inter‐annual and spatial variability due to changes of climate and permafrost conditions. Net primary production and soil respiration increased by 0.52 and 0.22 Tg C year^?1, respectively, resulting in a regional carbon sink increase of 0.3 Tg C year^?1. By the end of the century, the regional carbon sink reached 36 Tg C year^?1 and carbon storage in vegetation and soils is 32 and 16 Pg C, respectively. On the plateau, from west to east, the net primary production, soil respiration and net ecosystem production increased, due primarily to the increase of air temperature and precipitation and lowering elevation. In contrast, the decrease of carbon fluxes from south to north was primarily controlled by precipitation gradient. Dynamics of air temperature and associated soil temperature and active layer depth resulted in a higher plant carbon uptake than soil carbon release, strengthening the regional carbon sink during the century. Main conclusions We found that increasing soil temperature and deepening active layer depth enhanced soil respiration, increasing the net nitrogen mineralization rate. Together with the effects of warming air temperature and rising CO₂ concentrations on photosynthesis, the stronger plant nitrogen uptake due to the enhanced available nitrogen stimulates plant carbon uptake, thereby strengthening the regional carbon sink as the rate of increase net primary production was faster than that of soil respiration. Further, the warming and associated soil thermal dynamics shifted the regional carbon sink from the middle of July in the early 20th century to early July by the end of the century. Our study suggests that soil thermal dynamics should be considered for future quantification of carbon dynamics in this climate‐sensitive region.     

Variation of biomass and morphology of the cushion plant Androsace tapete along an elevational gradient in the Tibetan Plateau

Alpine ecosystems are among those biomes that are most vulnerable to climate change. Cushion plants are an important life form of alpine ecosystems and will likely play a critical role for the resilience of these habitats to climate change. We studied cushion size distribution and different measures of the compactness of cushions (biomass and rosette density, leaf area index) of the cushion plant, Androsace tapete along an elevational gradient from 4500 to 5200 m a.s.l. in the Nyainqentanglha Mountains of the central Tibetan Plateau. Cushion size distribution, total cover, and compactness of cushions varied substantially along the elevational gradient. At the driest site at low elevation we found the lowest total cushion cover, a particularly high proportion of very small cushions, and the most compact cushions (highest rosette and biomass densities, and leaf area index (LAI) per cushion). Our results indicate that in the semi‐arid Tibetan Plateau water availability is the more important climate factor than temperature affecting cushion plant traits and morphology.     

Plant population differentiation and climate change: responses of grassland species along an elevational gradient

Mountain ecosystems are particularly susceptible to climate change. Characterizing intraspecific variation of alpine plants along elevational gradients is crucial for estimating their vulnerability to predicted changes. Environmental conditions vary with elevation, which might influence plastic responses and affect selection pressures that lead to local adaptation. Thus, local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity among low and high elevation plant populations in response to climate, soil and other factors associated with elevational gradients might underlie different responses of these populations to climate warming. Using a transplant experiment along an elevational gradient, we investigated reproductive phenology, growth and reproduction of the nutrient‐poor grassland species Ranunculus bulbosus, Trifolium montanum and Briza media. Seeds were collected from low and high elevation source populations across the Swiss Alps and grown in nine common gardens at three different elevations with two different soil depths. Despite genetic differentiation in some traits, the results revealed no indication of local adaptation to the elevation of population origin. Reproductive phenology was advanced at lower elevation in low and high elevation populations of all three species. Growth and reproduction of T. montanum and B. media were hardly affected by garden elevation and soil depth. In R. bulbosus, however, growth decreased and reproductive investment increased at higher elevation. Furthermore, soil depth influenced growth and reproduction of low elevation R. bulbosus populations. We found no evidence for local adaptation to elevation of origin and hardly any differences in the responses of low and high elevation populations. However, the consistent advanced reproductive phenology observed in all three species shows that they have the potential to plastically respond to environmental variation. We conclude that populations might not be forced to migrate to higher elevations as a consequence of climate warming, as plasticity will buffer the detrimental effects of climate change in the three investigated nutrient‐poor grassland species.     

Temperature and snowfall trigger alpine vegetation green‐up on the world's roof

Rapid temperature increase and its impacts on alpine ecosystems in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, the world's highest and largest plateau, are a matter of global concern. Satellite observations have revealed distinctly different trend changes and contradicting temperature responses of vegetation green‐up dates, leading to broad debate about the Plateau's spring phenology and its climatic attribution. Large uncertainties in remote‐sensing estimates of phenology significantly limit efforts to predict the impacts of climate change on vegetation growth and carbon balance in the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, which are further exacerbated by a lack of detailed ground observation calibration. Here, we revealed the spatiotemporal variations and climate drivers of ground‐based herbaceous plant green‐up dates using 72 green‐up datasets for 22 herbaceous plant species at 23 phenological stations, and corresponding daily mean air temperature and daily precipitation data from 19 climate stations across eastern and southern parts of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau from 1981 to 2011. Results show that neither the continuously advancing trend from 1982 to 2011, nor a turning point in the mid to late 1990s as reported by remote‐sensing studies can be verified by most of the green‐up time series, and no robust evidence for a warmer winter‐induced later green‐up dates can be detected. Thus, chilling requirements may not be an important driver influencing green‐up responses to spring warming. Moreover, temperature‐only control of green‐up dates appears mainly at stations with relatively scarce preseason snowfall and lower elevation, while coupled temperature and precipitation controls of green‐up dates occur mostly at stations with relatively abundant preseason snowfall and higher elevation. The diversified interactions between snowfall and temperature during late winter to early spring likely determine the spatiotemporal variations of green‐up dates. Therefore, prediction of vegetation growth and carbon balance responses to global climate change on the world's roof should integrate both temperature and snowfall variations.     

The capacity to cope with climate warming declines from temperate to tropical latitudes in two widely distributed Eucalyptus species

As rapid climate warming creates a mismatch between forest trees and their home environment, the ability of trees to cope with warming depends on their capacity to physiologically adjust to higher temperatures. In widespread species, individual trees in cooler home climates are hypothesized to more successfully acclimate to warming than their counterparts in warmer climates that may approach thermal limits. We tested this prediction with a climate‐shift experiment in widely distributed Eucalyptus tereticornis and E. grandis using provenances originating along a ~2500 km latitudinal transect (15.5–38.0°S) in eastern Australia. We grew 21 provenances in conditions approximating summer temperatures at seed origin and warmed temperatures (+3.5 °C) using a series of climate‐controlled glasshouse bays. The effects of +3.5 °C warming strongly depended on home climate. Cool‐origin provenances responded to warming through an increase in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to enhanced growth of 20–60%. Warm‐origin provenances, however, responded to warming through a reduction in photosynthetic capacity and total leaf area, leading to reduced growth of approximately 10%. These results suggest that there is predictable intraspecific variation in the capacity of trees to respond to warming; cool‐origin taxa are likely to benefit from warming, while warm‐origin taxa may be negatively affected.     

Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C–4.0°C global warming

Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan's ecosystems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo industries. We examined past (1975–1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic bamboos (Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides) in areas adjacent to 145 weather stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three decades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we reproduced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the potential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habitats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the current climate (1980–2000) to 46%–48%, 51%–54%, 61%–67%, and 77%–83% under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in predicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan.     

On the use of weather data in ecological studies along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients

Global warming has created a need for studies along climatic gradients to assess the effects of temperature on ecological processes. Altitudinal and latitudinal gradients are often used as such, usually in combination with air temperature data from the closest weather station recorded at 1.5–2 m above the ground. However, many ecological processes occur in, at, or right above the soil surface. To evaluate how representative the commonly used weather station data are for the microclimate relevant for soil surface biota, we compared weather station temperatures for an altitudinal (500–900 m a.s.l.) and a latitudinal gradient (49–68°N) with data obtained by temperature sensors placed right below the soil surface at five sites along these gradients. The mean annual temperatures obtained from weather stations and adjusted using a lapse rate of ?5.5°C km^?1 were between 3.8°C lower and 1.6°C higher than those recorded by the temperature sensors at the soil surface, depending on the position along the gradients. The monthly mean temperatures were up to 10°C warmer or 5°C colder at the soil surface. The within‐site variation in accumulated temperature was as high as would be expected from a 300 m change in altitude or from a 4° change in latitude or a climate change scenario corresponding to warming of 1.6–3.8°C. Thus, these differences introduced by the decoupling are significant from a climate change perspective, and the results demonstrate the need for incorporating microclimatic variation when conducting studies along altitudinal or latitudinal gradients. We emphasize the need for using relevant temperature data in climate impact studies and further call for more studies describing the soil surface microclimate, which is crucial for much of the biota.     

Historical comparisons reveal multiple drivers of decadal change of an ecosystem engineer at the range edge

Biogenic reefs are important for habitat provision and coastal protection. Long‐term datasets on the distribution and abundance of Sabellaria alveolata (L.) are available from Britain. The aim of this study was to combine historical records and contemporary data to (1) describe spatiotemporal variation in winter temperatures, (2) document short‐term and long‐term changes in the distribution and abundance of S. alveolata and discuss these changes in relation to extreme weather events and recent warming, and (3) assess the potential for artificial coastal defense structures to function as habitat for S. alveolata. A semi‐quantitative abundance scale (ACFOR) was used to compare broadscale, long‐term and interannual abundance of S. alveolata near its range edge in NW Britain. S. alveolata disappeared from the North Wales and Wirral coastlines where it had been abundant prior to the cold winter of 1962/1963. Population declines were also observed following the recent cold winters of 2009/2010 and 2010/2011. Extensive surveys in 2004 and 2012 revealed that S. alveolata had recolonized locations from which it had previously disappeared. Furthermore, it had increased in abundance at many locations, possibly in response to recent warming. S. alveolata was recorded on the majority of artificial coastal defense structures surveyed, suggesting that the proliferation of artificial coastal defense structures along this stretch of coastline may have enabled S. alveolata to spread across stretches of unsuitable natural habitat. Long‐term and broadscale contextual monitoring is essential for monitoring responses of organisms to climate change. Historical data and gray literature can be invaluable sources of information. Our results support the theory that Lusitanian species are responding positively to climate warming but also that short‐term extreme weather events can have potentially devastating widespread and lasting effects on organisms. Furthermore, the proliferation of coastal defense structures has implications for phylogeography, population genetics, and connectivity of coastal populations.     

Different trends and divergent responses to climate factors in the radial growth of Abies georgei along elevations in the central Hengduan Mountains

Climate change has been unprecedented in the last half-century. Tree growth dynamics and responses to climate warming at different elevations vary by study area due to regional diversity in site-specific climatic conditions in the central Hengduan Mountains. A. georgei is the dominant species in high-elevation montane forests in the central Hengduan Mountains. To study the response of A. georgei radial growth to climate and identify tree growth trends at different elevations, tree-ring width chronologies at four elevations across the subalpine A. georgei forest belt were built and growth-climate relationships were analyzed. The primary findings of this study were as follows: (1) radial growth rates of A. georgei decreased with elevation; (2) warming alleviated the limitation of low temperatures and abundant precipitation on tree radial growth at the highest sampling site; and (3) unlike at other elevations, the trend of trees basal area increment (BAI) at the lowest sampling site showed a significant decline over the past 20 years. This suggests the presence of an elevational inflection point, likely between 3800 m and 4000 m, where tree growth trends diverge. These results confirmed that A. georgei at higher elevation in the central Hengduan Mountains currently benefits from higher temperatures. However, the effects of drought on A. georgei at lower elevations would cause radial growth to decrease with climate warming. Therefore, it is critical to establish effective management strategies based on how A. georgei responds to climate change at various elevations.     

Long‐term responses of leaf litter decomposition to temperature,litter quality and litter mixing in plateau wetlands

相似文献