Declining body size: a third universal response to warming?

A recently documented correlate of anthropogenic climate change involves reductions in body size, the nature and scale of the pattern leading to suggestions of a third universal response to climate warming. Because body size affects thermoregulation and energetics, changing body size has implications for resilience in the face of climate change. A review of recent studies shows heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of size responses, exposing a need for large-scale phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses of temporal size change. Integrative analyses of museum data combined with new theoretical models of size-dependent thermoregulatory and metabolic responses will increase both understanding of the underlying mechanisms and physiological consequences of size shifts and, therefore, the ability to predict the sensitivities of species to climate change.     

Investigating yellow dung fly body size evolution in the field: Response to climate change?

Uncovering genetic responses to selection in wild populations typically requires tracking individuals over generations and use of animal models. Our group monitored the body size of one Swiss Yellow Dung Fly (Scathophaga stercoraria; Diptera: Scathophagidae) field population over 15 years, including intermittent common‐garden rearing in the laboratory to assess body size with minimized environmental and maximized genetic variation. Contrary to expectations based on repeated heritability and phenotypic selection assessments over the years (reported elsewhere), field body sizes declined by >10% and common‐garden laboratory sizes by >5% from 1993 to 2009. Our results confirm the temperature‐size rule (smaller when warmer) and, albeit entirely correlational, could be mediated by climate change, as over this period mean temperature at the site increased by 0.5°C, although alternative systematic environmental changes cannot be entirely excluded. Monitoring genetic responses to selection in wild invertebrate populations is thus possible, though indirect, and wild populations may evolve in directions not consistent with strongly positive directional selection favoring large body size.     

BVOCs: plant defense against climate warming?

Plants emit a substantial amount of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) into the atmosphere. These BVOCs represent a large carbon loss and can be up to approximately 10% of that fixed by photosynthesis under stressful conditions and up to 100gCm(-2) per year in some tropical ecosystems. Among a variety of proven and unproven BVOC functions in plants and roles in atmospheric processes, recent data intriguingly link emission of these compounds to climate. Ongoing research demonstrates that BVOCs could protect plants against high temperatures. BVOC emissions are probably increasing with warming and with other factors associated to global change, including changes in land cover. These increases in BVOC emissions could contribute in a significant way (via negative and positive feedback) to the complex processes associated with global warming.     

Do cities simulate climate change? A comparison of herbivore response to urban and global warming

Cities experience elevated temperature, CO₂, and nitrogen deposition decades ahead of the global average, such that biological response to urbanization may predict response to future climate change. This hypothesis remains untested due to a lack of complementary urban and long‐term observations. Here, we examine the response of an herbivore, the scale insect Melanaspis tenebricosa, to temperature in the context of an urban heat island, a series of historical temperature fluctuations, and recent climate warming. We survey M. tenebricosa on 55 urban street trees in Raleigh, NC, 342 herbarium specimens collected in the rural southeastern United States from 1895 to 2011, and at 20 rural forest sites represented by both modern (2013) and historical samples. We relate scale insect abundance to August temperatures and find that M. tenebricosa is most common in the hottest parts of the city, on historical specimens collected during warm time periods, and in present‐day rural forests compared to the same sites when they were cooler. Scale insects reached their highest densities in the city, but abundance peaked at similar temperatures in urban and historical datasets and tracked temperature on a decadal scale. Although urban habitats are highly modified, species response to a key abiotic factor, temperature, was consistent across urban and rural‐forest ecosystems. Cities may be an appropriate but underused system for developing and testing hypotheses about biological effects of climate change. Future work should test the applicability of this model to other groups of organisms.     

Climate change and unequal phenological changes across four trophic levels: constraints or adaptations?

1. Climate change has been shown to affect the phenology of many organisms, but interestingly these shifts are often unequal across trophic levels, causing a mismatch between the phenology of organisms and their food. 2. We consider two alternative hypotheses: consumers are constrained to adjust sufficiently to the lower trophic level, or prey species react more strongly than their predators to reduce predation. We discuss both hypotheses with our analyses of changes in phenology across four trophic levels: tree budburst, peak biomass of herbivorous caterpillars, breeding phenology of four insectivorous bird species and an avian predator. 3. In our long-term study, we show that between 1988 and 2005, budburst advanced (not significantly) with 0.17 d yr(-1), while between 1985 and 2005 both caterpillars (0.75 d year(-1)) and the hatching date of the passerine species (range for four species: 0.36-0.50 d year(-1)) have advanced, whereas raptor hatching dates showed no trend. 4. The caterpillar peak date was closely correlated with budburst date, as were the passerine hatching dates with the peak caterpillar biomass date. In all these cases, however, the slopes were significantly less than unity, showing that the response of the consumers is weaker than that of their food. This was also true for the avian predator, for which hatching dates were not correlated with the peak availability of fledgling passerines. As a result, the match between food demand and availability deteriorated over time for both the passerines and the avian predators. 5. These results could equally well be explained by consumers' insufficient responses as a consequence of constraints in adapting to climate change, or by them trying to escape predation from a higher trophic level, or both. Selection on phenology could thus be both from matches of phenology with higher and lower levels, and quantifying these can shed new light on why some organisms do adjust their phenology to climate change, while others do not.     

Geroscience and climate science: Oppositional or complementary?

Two of this century's most significant public health challenges are climate change and healthy aging. The future of humanity will be both warmer and older than it is today. Is it socially responsible, in a warming planet of a population exceeding 8 billion people, for science to aspire to develop gerotherapeutic drugs that aim to reduce the burden of aging-related diseases that may also increase lifespan? This question is the “elephant in the room” for geroscience advocacy. Science communication concerning what constitutes empirically valid and morally defensible ways of navigating the dual public health predicaments of climate change and healthy aging must be sensitive to both the interdependence of the environment (including planetary health) and the mechanisms of aging, as well as the common (mis)perceptions about the potential conflict between the goals of climate science and geroscience. Geroscience advocacy can transcend narratives of intergenerational conflict by highlighting the shared aspirations of climate science and geroscience, such as the goals of promoting health across the lifespan, redressing health disparities, and improving the economic prospects of current and future generations.     

Early effects of climate change: do they include changes in vector-borne disease?

The world's climate appears now to be changing at an unprecedented rate. Shifts in the distribution and behaviour of insect and bird species indicate that biological systems are already responding to this change. It is well established that climate is an important determinant of the spatial and temporal distribution of vectors and pathogens. In theory, a change in climate would be expected to cause changes in the geographical range, seasonality (intra-annual variability), and in the incidence rate (with or without changes in geographical or seasonal patterns). The detection and then attribution of such changes to climate change is an emerging task for scientists. We discuss the evidence required to attribute changes in disease and vectors to the early effects of anthropogenic climate change. The literature to date indicates that there is a lack of strong evidence of the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, dengue, leishmaniasis, tick-borne diseases). New approaches to monitoring, such as frequent and long-term sampling along transects to monitor the full latitudinal and altitudinal range of specific vector species, are necessary in order to provide convincing direct evidence of climate change effects. There is a need to reassess the appropriate levels of evidence, including dealing with the uncertainties attached to detecting the health impacts of global change.     

Global warming and Bergmann’s rule: do central European passerines adjust their body size to rising temperatures?

Recent climate change has caused diverse ecological responses in plants and animals. However, relatively little is known about homeothermic animals’ ability to adapt to changing temperature regimes through changes in body size, in accordance with Bergmann’s rule. We used fluctuations in mean annual temperatures in south-west Germany since 1972 in order to look for direct links between temperature and two aspects of body size: body mass and flight feather length. Data from regionally born juveniles of 12 passerine bird species were analysed. Body mass and feather length varied significantly among years in eight and nine species, respectively. Typically the inter-annual changes in morphology were complexly non-linear, as was inter-annual variation in temperature. For six (body mass) and seven species (feather length), these inter-annual fluctuations were significantly correlated with temperature fluctuations. However, negative correlations consistent with Bergmann’s rule were only found for five species, either for body mass or feather length. In several of the species for which body mass and feather length was significantly associated with temperature, morphological responses were better predicted by temperature data that were smoothed across multiple years than by the actual mean breeding season temperatures of the year of birth. This was found in five species for body mass and three species for feather length. These results suggest that changes in body size may not merely be the result of phenotypic plasticity but may hint at genetically based microevolutionary adaptations.     

Behavioural and body mass changes before egg laying in the Barn Owl: cues for clutch size determination?

To investigate laying decision and clutch size determination in indeterminate layers, we analysed in-nest activity (nest presence, and copulation, prey deliveries, and entrance frequencies) and female body mass change, as well as their relation to clutch size variation in five Barn Owl pairs (Tyto alba) nesting in eastern France. Body mass of the female and behaviour [copulation frequency, entrance frequency, and prey delivery to the nest by the male (in number and mass)] were monitored using an automated weighing system and a video camera. There was a consistent change of behaviour and foraging activity among pairs ca. 18 days before laying indicating that the females may be tied to the nest at this time. Barn Owls being indeterminate layers have their clutch size determined at the oviposition of the first egg of the clutch. Window correlation analyses between the clutch size and the female body mass gain indicate that the clutch size might be determined no later than a few days before the laying of the first egg. Our results suggest that female Barn Owls may use the pre-laying period to determine the clutch size using cues such as the male food deliveries (a proxy for male quality).     

Relationships between abundance and body size: where do tourists fit?

Abstract.

• 1 The possible effects of the inclusion of ‘tourist’ species have been the cause of some concern in investigations of interspecific relationships between abundance and body size.
• 2 Data for adult beetles (Coleoptera) from oak trees in Britain are used to investigate the relationship of abundance to body size when tourists are and are not included.
• 3 For this particular assemblage, tourists do not fundamentally alter the basic statistics of the relationship between abundance and body size. However, they are not a random sample of the beetle assemblage. They have lower abundances and are also of smaller body size than other species.

     

Can we predict ectotherm responses to climate change using thermal performance curves and body temperatures?

Thermal performance curves (TPCs), which quantify how an ectotherm's body temperature (T_b) affects its performance or fitness, are often used in an attempt to predict organismal responses to climate change. Here, we examine the key – but often biologically unreasonable – assumptions underlying this approach; for example, that physiology and thermal regimes are invariant over ontogeny, space and time, and also that TPCs are independent of previously experienced T_b. We show how a critical consideration of these assumptions can lead to biologically useful hypotheses and experimental designs. For example, rather than assuming that TPCs are fixed during ontogeny, one can measure TPCs for each major life stage and incorporate these into stage‐specific ecological models to reveal the life stage most likely to be vulnerable to climate change. Our overall goal is to explicitly examine the assumptions underlying the integration of TPCs with T_b, to develop a framework within which empiricists can place their work within these limitations, and to facilitate the application of thermal physiology to understanding the biological implications of climate change.     

Interrelation between size of body and of digestive tract organs in some myomorpha: Isometry or allometry?

Using nonparametric tests, we analyzed the weights of the digestive tract organs of 198 rodent individuals belonging to 11 species of Arvicolinae (family Cricetidae) and Murinae (family Muridae), using both fresh and fixed material, the weight characteristics of which were identical. It has been shown that no unique dependence exists between the body weight and the entire digestive tract one in Arvicolinae rodents weighing 8–73 g. It was also shown that interspecific differences in the relative mass of such a dynamic system of organs as the digestive system cannot always be regarded as a function of the body size alone.     

Hybridization rate and climate change: are endangered species at risk?

Many species are altering their geographic range due to climate change creating new sympatric populations of otherwise allopatric populations. We investigated whether climate change will affect the distribution and thus the pattern of hybridization between two pairs of closely related damselfly species [Ischnura damula and I. demorsa, and I. denticollis and I. gemina (this, an endangered species)]. Thus, we estimated the strength of pre and postmating reproductive barriers between both pairs of species, and we predicted future potential distribution under four different Global Circulation Models and a realistic emissions scenario of climate change by using maximum entropy modelling technique. Our results showed that reproductive isolation (RI) is complete in I. damula × I. demorsa individuals: F₁ (first generation) hybrids are produced but do not reach sexual maturation. However, RI in I. denticollis × I. gemina hybrids is high but incomplete and unidirectional: only I. gemina females produced F₁ hybrids which mate with males and females of I. denticollis and between them producing BC₁ (backcrosses) and F₂ (second generation) viable hybrids. Maximum entropy models revealed a northern and westward shift and a general reduction of the potential geographic ranges. Based on the pattern of hybridization, for I. damula and I. demorsa there is a current threat as well as a rapid displacement and/or extinction of I. gemina by I. denticollis. However, the current pattern of extinction may not continue due to the contraction in ranges of the four species.     

Nonlinear climate change and Andean feedbacks: an imminent turning point?

A 370 000‐year paleoecological record from Lake Titicaca provides a detailed record of past climate change in which interglacial periods are seen to have some elements of commonality, but also some key differences. We advance a conceptual feedback model to account for the observed changes that includes previously ignored lake effects. Today Lake Titicaca serves to warm the local environment by about 4–5 °C and also to increase rainfall. We observe that as water levels in the lake are drawn down due to warm, dry, interglacial conditions, there is a possible regional cooling as the lake effect on local microclimates diminishes. Positive feedback mechanisms promote drying until much of the lake basin is reduced to salt marsh. Consequently, the usual concept of upslope migration of species with warming would not be applicable in the Altiplano. If, as projected, the next century brings warmer and drier conditions than those of today, a tipping point appears to exist within ca. 1–2 °C of current temperatures, where the relatively benign agricultural conditions of the northern Altiplano would be replaced by inhospitable arid climates. Such a change would have profound implications for the citizens of the Bolivian capital, La Paz.     

Plasticity of preferred body temperatures as means of coping with climate change?

Thermoregulatory behaviour represents an important component of ectotherm non-genetic adaptive capacity that mitigates the impact of ongoing climate change. The buffering role of behavioural thermoregulation has been attributed solely to the ability to maintain near optimal body temperature for sufficiently extended periods under altered thermal conditions. The widespread occurrence of plastic modification of target temperatures that an ectotherm aims to achieve (preferred body temperatures) has been largely overlooked. I argue that plasticity of target temperatures may significantly contribute to an ectotherm's adaptive capacity. Its contribution to population persistence depends on both the effectiveness of acute thermoregulatory adjustments (reactivity) in buffering selection pressures in a changing thermal environment, and the total costs of thermoregulation (i.e. reactivity and plasticity) in a given environment. The direction and magnitude of plastic shifts in preferred body temperatures can be incorporated into mechanistic models, to improve predictions of the impact of global climate change on ectotherm populations.     

The advancing timberline on Mt. Fuji: natural recovery or climate change?

The alpine timberline on Mt. Fuji (central Japan) is at 2,400-2,500 m above sea level. Over a 21-year period (1978-1999), we tracked changes in this vegetation boundary on a transect at a site impacted by the 1707 volcanic eruption. The timberline advanced rapidly upwards during this time period. Dominant tree species at the timberline (Alnus maximowiczii, Salix reinii, and Larix kaempferi) colonized sites that were initially largely free of vegetation at higher altitudes. Seedlings of L. kaempferi were particularly abundant at the border of advancing vegetation. According to tree age, we found that this was the first canopy species in the colonized areas. L. kaempferi is drought resistant, and this probably contributes to its establishment capability in the high-altitude climate. Most seedlings of Abies veitchii invaded patches of herbs and shrubs. These vegetation patches in the upper kampfzone provide important shelter for seedlings of invading tree species. We predict that the upward advance of the alpine timberline is a recovery process following the volcanic eruption, and that climate change may accelerate this advance.     

Biodiversity: climate change or habitat loss - which will kill more species?

Habitat loss and climate change both kill off species. New studies show that the latter is a potent threat. Worse, its victims will likely be mostly those not presently threatened by habitat loss.