Site Occupancy Dynamics of Northern Spotted Owls in the Eastern Cascades,Washington, USA, 1990–2003

Abstract: Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) have received intense research and management interest since their listing as a threatened species by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. Several spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) response variables have been examined in various investigations, but recent advances in statistical modeling permit evaluations of temporal and spatial variability in site occupancy, local-extinction, and colonization probabilities while incorporating imperfect detection probabilities. Following recent work by other researchers on site occupancy dynamics of spotted owls in Oregon, USA, we evaluated temporal variability of detection, occupancy, local-extinction, and colonization probabilities for spotted owls, as well as potential influences of barred owl (Strix varia) presence on these parameters. We used spotted owl survey data collected from 1990 to 2003 on a study area in the eastern Cascades Mountains, Washington, USA, to compare competing occupancy models from Program PRESENCE using Akaike's Information Criterion. Detection probabilities for individual spotted owls ranged from 0.54 to 0.80 if barred owls were not detected during the survey season and from 0.19 to 0.71 if barred owls were detected during the survey season. Pair detection probabilities ranged from 0.27 to 0.67 if barred owls were not detected during an individual survey and from 0.09 to 0.36 if barred owls were detected during an individual survey. During the study, site occupancy probabilities for spotted owl pairs declined by approximately 50%. For all spotted owls, both singles and pairs, site occupancy probabilities declined moderately during the study. Barred owl presence was negatively associated with spotted owl detection probabilities, and it had a positive association with local-extinction probabilities for all spotted owls, both singles and pairs. Given that our study area has supported higher densities of barred owls for longer periods than other study areas, our results may provide insight into how barred owls have influenced spotted owl site occupancy dynamics in adjacent British Columbia, Canada, or will influence spotted owl site occupancy dynamics in Oregon and California, USA, in the future.     

Empirical support for a despotic distribution in a California spotted owl population

Territorial species, such as the spotted owl (Strix occidentalis),are predicted to follow an ideal despotic distribution. However,debate exists on whether wild populations actually meet theassumptions of an ideal distribution, such as perfect perceptualabilities (i.e., the ability to recognize high- and low-qualitysites without error). Because this hypothesis has importantlife history ramifications for spotted owls, we investigatedwhether occupancy rates of California spotted owl (S. o. occidentalis)territories in the San Bernardino Mountains of southern Californiapositively correlated with a qualitative "potential fitness"(denoted by _pf) estimated from survival and reproduction ofterritorial owls. Spotted owls in our study tended to occupyterritories with the highest _pf, supporting the assumption ofideal perceptual abilities within this population. However,this relationship was noisy, and we suggest that some individualsdo not assess site quality accurately because of perceptuallimitations, prey dynamics, and large territory sizes. Furthermore,dispersal processes, high survival rates, and long life spansof spotted owls may be other key factors preventing some individualsfrom selecting sites of the highest quality and, consequently,our ability to precisely estimate _pf.     

Site occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls in managed interior Douglas fir forests,California, USA, 1995–2009

Northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) have received intense research and management interest since their listing as a threatened species by the United States Fish and Wildlife Service in 1990. For example, public and private forest managers in the Pacific Northwest, USA, conduct surveys to determine presence or absence of spotted owls prior to timber harvest operations. However, although recently developed statistical methods have been applied to presence–absence data collected during research surveys, the effectiveness of operational surveys for detecting spotted owls and evaluating site occupancy dynamics is not known. We used spotted owl survey data collected from 1995 to 2009 on a study area in interior northern California, USA, to evaluate competing occupancy models from Program PRESENCE using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). During 1,282 individual surveys, we recorded 480 spotted owl detections (37.4%) and 13 barred owl (1.0%) detections. Average per visit detection probability (85% CL) for single and paired spotted owls was 0.93 (0.90–0.96) for informed daytime, stand-based searches and 0.47 (0.43–0.51) for nighttime, station-based surveys (estimated from the best model); the average per visit detection probability from the null model was 0.67 (0.64–0.70). Average pair-only detection probabilities were 0.86 (0.81–0.90) for informed daytime, stand-based searches and 0.23 (0.18–0.29) for nighttime, station-based surveys; the average per visit detection probability from the null model was 0.63 (0.58–0.68). Site occupancy for any owl declined from 0.81 (0.59–0.93) in 1995 to 0.50 (0.39–0.60) in 2009; pair occupancy declined from 0.75 (0.56–0.87) to 0.46 (0.31–0.61). Our results suggest that a combination of 1 informed stand and 2 station-based operational surveys can support determinations of spotted owl site status (either a single or a pair) at desired levels of confidence. However, our information was collected in an area where barred owls were rarely detected. Surveys conducted in areas that support well-established barred owl populations are likely to be less effective for determining presence or absence of spotted owls and may require more surveys and/or different survey methods to determine site status with confidence. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Potential Changes in Tree Species Richness and Forest Community Types following Climate Change

Potential changes in tree species richness and forest community types were evaluated for the eastern United States according to five scenarios of future climate change resulting from a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). DISTRIB, an empirical model that uses a regression tree analysis approach, was used to generate suitable habitat, or potential future distributions, of 80 common tree species for each scenario. The model assumes that the vegetation and climate are in equilibrium with no barriers to species migration. Combinations of the individual species model outcomes allowed estimates of species richness (from among the 80 species) and forest type (from simple rules) for each of 2100 counties in the eastern United States. Average species richness across all counties may increase slightly with climatic change. This increase tends to be larger as the average temperature of the climate change scenario increases. Dramatic changes in the distribution of potential forest types were modeled. All five scenarios project the extirpation of the spruce–fir forest types from New England. Outputs from only the two least severe scenarios retain aspen–birch, and they are largely reduced. Maple–beech–birch also shows a large reduction in area under all scenarios. By contrast, oak–hickory and oak–pine types were modeled to increase by 34% and 290%, respectively, averaged over the five scenarios. Although many assumptions are made, these modeled outcomes substantially agree with a limited number of predictions from researchers using paleoecological data or other models. Received 12 May 2000; accepted 20 October 2000.     

Subspecific relationships and genetic structure in the spotted owl

Hierarchical genetic structure was examined in the three geographically-defined subspecies of spotted owl (Strix occidentalis) to define relationships among subspecies and quantify variation within and among regional and local populations. Sequences (522 bp) from domains I and II of the mitochondrial control region were analyzed for 213 individuals from 30 local breeding areas. Results confirmed significant differences between northern spotted owls and the other traditional geographically defined subspecies but did not provide support for subspecific level differences between California and Mexican spotted owls. Divergence times among subspecies estimated with a 936 bp portion of the cytochrome b gene dated Northern and California/Mexican spotted owl divergence time to 115,000–125,000 years ago, whereas California/Mexican spotted owl divergence was estimated at 15,000 years ago. Nested clade analyses indicated an association between California spotted owl and Mexican spotted owl haplotypes, implying historical contact between the two groups. Results also identified a number of individuals geographically classified as northern spotted owls (S. o. caurina) that contained haplotypes identified as California spotted owls (S. o. caurina). Among all northern spotted owls sampled (n=131), 12.9% contained California spotted owl haplotypes. In the Klamath region, which is the contact zone between the two subspecies, 20.3% (n=59) of owls were classified as California spotted owls. The Klamath region is a zone of hybridization and speciation for many other taxa as well. Analyses of population structure indicated gene flow among regions within geographically defined subspecies although there was significant differentiation among northern and southern regions of Mexican spotted owls. Among all areas examined, genetic diversity was not significantly reduced except in California spotted owls where the southern region consists of one haplotype. Our results indicate a stable contact zone between northern and California spotted owls, maintaining distinct subspecific haplotypes within their traditional ranges. This supports recovery efforts based on the traditional subspecies designation for the northern spotted owl. Further, although little variation was found between California and Mexican spotted owls, we suggest they should be managed separately because of current isolation between groups.