Long-Term Climate Sensitivity of Grazer Performance: A Cross-Site Study

Climate change will affect grasslands in a number of ways, but the consequences of a warmer, drier world for grazers is uncertain. Predicting future grazer performance is complex since climate change affects both the quantity and quality of forage through a combination of processes that occur over a range of time scales. To better predict the consequences of climate change for grazer performance, a dataset was compiled of over a quarter million bison weights distributed across 22 US herds that span a large range of climates. Patterns of bison body mass among sites, age classes, and sexes were analyzed with respect to differences in geographic patterns of climate and interannual variation in climate. While short-term effects of climate variability are likely to depend on the magnitude and timing of precipitation during the year, grazers will be negatively affected by sustained hotter, drier conditions most likely associated with reductions in forage quality. Short-term, little effect of high temperatures on bison performance is observed, which suggests that the long-term effects of higher temperatures are likely to accrue over time as nitrogen availability in grasslands is reduced and forage quality declines. If relationships observed for bison are general for cattle, the economic consequences of higher temperatures due to decreased weight gain in US cattle could be on the order of US$1B per 1°C increase in temperature. Long-term monitoring of forage quality as well as native and domesticated grazer performance is recommended to better understand climate change effects on grazers.     

Carryover effects from environmental change in early life: An overlooked driver of the amphibian extinction crisis?

Ecological carryover effects, or delayed effects of the environment on an organism's phenotype, are central predictors of individual fitness and a key issue in conservation biology. Climate change imposes increasingly variable environmental conditions that may be challenging to early life-history stages in animals with complex life histories, leading to detrimental physiological and fitness effects in later life. Yet, the latent nature of carryover effects, combined with the long temporal scales over which they can manifest, means that this phenomenon remains understudied and is often overlooked in short-term studies limited to single life-history stages. Herein, we review evidence for the physiological carryover effects induced by elevated ultraviolet radiation (UVR; 280–400 nm) as a potential contributor to recent amphibian population declines. UVR exposure causes a suite of molecular, cellular and physiological consequences known to underpin carryover effects in other taxa, but there is a lack of research linking embryonic and larval UVR exposures to fitness consequences post-metamorphosis in amphibians. We propose that the key impacts of UVR on disease-related amphibian declines are facilitated through carryover effects that bridge embryonic and larval UVR exposure with potential increased disease susceptibility post-metamorphosis. We conclude by identifying a practical direction for the study of ecological carryover effects in amphibians that could guide future ecological research in the broader field of conservation physiology. Only by addressing carryover effects can many of the mechanistic links between environmental change and population declines be elucidated.     

Synergistic effects associated with climate change and the development of rocky shore molluscs

Global climate change and ozone layer thinning will simultaneously expose organisms to increasingly stressful conditions. Early life stages of marine organisms, particularly eggs and larvae, are considered most vulnerable to environmental extremes. Here, we exposed encapsulated embryos of three common rocky shore gastropods to simultaneous combinations of ecologically realistic levels of ultraviolet radiation (UVR), water temperature stress and salinity stress to identify potential interactions and associated impacts of climate change. We detected synergistic effects with increases in mortality and retardation in development associated with the most physiologically stressful conditions. The effects of UVR were particularly marked, with mortality increasing up to 12‐fold under stressful conditions. Importantly, the complex outcomes observed on applying multiple stressors could not have been predicted from examining environmental variables in isolation. Hence, we are probably dramatically underestimating the ecological impacts of climate change by failing to consider the complex interplay of combinations of environmental variables with organisms.     

Climate change–contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change‐associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change–contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change–contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat‐soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein‐binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change–contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision‐making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants.     

Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA

Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641–20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030–12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.     

Contrasting effects of warming and increased snowfall on Arctic tundra plant phenology over the past two decades

Recent changes in climate have led to significant shifts in phenology, with many studies demonstrating advanced phenology in response to warming temperatures. The rate of temperature change is especially high in the Arctic, but this is also where we have relatively little data on phenological changes and the processes driving these changes. In order to understand how Arctic plant species are likely to respond to future changes in climate, we monitored flowering phenology in response to both experimental and ambient warming for four widespread species in two habitat types over 21 years. We additionally used long‐term environmental records to disentangle the effects of temperature increase and changes in snowmelt date on phenological patterns. While flowering occurred earlier in response to experimental warming, plants in unmanipulated plots showed no change or a delay in flowering over the 21‐year period, despite more than 1 °C of ambient warming during that time. This counterintuitive result was likely due to significantly delayed snowmelt over the study period (0.05–0.2 days/yr) due to increased winter snowfall. The timing of snowmelt was a strong driver of flowering phenology for all species – especially for early‐flowering species – while spring temperature was significantly related to flowering time only for later‐flowering species. Despite significantly delayed flowering phenology, the timing of seed maturation showed no significant change over time, suggesting that warmer temperatures may promote more rapid seed development. The results of this study highlight the importance of understanding the specific environmental cues that drive species’ phenological responses as well as the complex interactions between temperature and precipitation when forecasting phenology over the coming decades. As demonstrated here, the effects of altered snowmelt patterns can counter the effects of warmer temperatures, even to the point of generating phenological responses opposite to those predicted by warming alone.     

Simulated climate change,epidemic size,and host evolution across host–parasite populations

Climate change is causing warmer and more variable temperatures as well as physical flux in natural populations, which will affect the ecology and evolution of infectious disease epidemics. Using replicate seminatural populations of a coevolving freshwater invertebrate‐parasite system (host: Daphnia magna, parasite: Pasteuria ramosa), we quantified the effects of ambient temperature and population mixing (physical flux within populations) on epidemic size and population health. Each population was seeded with an identical suite of host genotypes and dose of parasite transmission spores. Biologically reasonable increases in environmental temperature caused larger epidemics, and population mixing reduced overall epidemic size. Mixing also had a detrimental effect on host populations independent of disease. Epidemics drove parasite‐mediated selection, leading to a loss of host genetic diversity, and mixed populations experienced greater evolution due to genetic drift over the season. These findings further our understanding of how diversity loss will reduce the host populations’ capacity to respond to changes in selection, therefore stymying adaptation to further environmental change.     

Interactive influences of ozone and climate on streamflow of forested watersheds

The capacity of forests to mitigate global climate change can be negatively influenced by tropospheric ozone that impairs both photosynthesis and stomatal control of plant transpiration, thus affecting ecosystem productivity and watershed hydrology. We have evaluated individual and interactive effects of ozone and climate on late season streamflow for six forested watersheds (38–970 000 ha) located in the Southeastern United States. Models were based on 18–26 year data records for each watershed and involved multivariate analysis of interannual variability of late season streamflow in response to physical and chemical climate during the growing season. In all cases, some combination of ozone variables significantly improved model performance over climate‐only models. Effects of ozone and ozone × climate interactions were also consistently negative and were proportional to variations in actual ozone exposures, both spatially across the region and over time. Conservative estimates of the influence of ozone on the variability (R²) of observed flow ranged from 7% in the area of lowest ozone exposure in West Virginia to 23% in the areas of highest exposure in Tennessee. Our results are supported by a controlled field study using free‐air concentration enrichment methodology which indicated progressive ozone‐induced loss of stomatal control over tree transpiration during the summer in mixed aspen‐birch stands. Despite the frequent assumption that ozone reduces tree water loss, our findings support increasing evidence that ozone at near ambient concentrations can reduce stomatal control of leaf transpiration, and increase water use. Increases in evapotranspiration and associated streamflow reductions in response to ambient ozone exposures are expected to episodically increase the frequency and severity of drought and affect flow‐dependent aquatic biota in forested watersheds. Regional and global models of hydrologic cycles and related ecosystem functions should consider potential interactions of ozone with climate under both current and future warmer and ozone‐enriched climatic conditions.     

Climate Change-related Health Impacts in the Hindu Kush–Himalayas

Our goal was to identify the climate change-related health risks and vulnerable populations specific to the mountainous regions of the Hindu Kush–Himalayas. We reviewed published information of the likely health consequences of climate change in mountain regions, especially the findings of a workshop for countries in the Hindu Kush–Himalaya region, organized by the World Health Organization, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environment Programme, and United Nations Development Programme. The main climate-related risks in the Hindu Kush–Himalaya region include the expansion of vector-borne diseases as pathogens take advantage of new habitats in altitudes that were formerly unsuitable. Diarrheal diseases could become more prevalent with changes in freshwater quality and availability. More extreme rainfall events are likely to increase the number of floods and landslides with consequent death and injuries. A unique risk is sudden floods from high glacier lakes, which cause substantial destruction and loss of life. Because glaciers are the main source of freshwater for upland regions and downstream countries, the long-term reduction in annual glacier snowmelt is expected to heighten existing water insecurity in these areas. Climate change also is bringing some benefits to mountain populations, including milder winters and longer growing seasons. Populations in mountain regions have unique combinations of vulnerabilities to climate change. The extent of the health impacts experienced will depend on the effectiveness of public health efforts to identify and implement low-cost preparedness and response measures, and on the speed at which emissions of greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced.     

Climate changes, environment and infection: facts, scenarios and growing awareness from the public health community within Europe

Climate change is a current global concern and, despite continuing controversy about the extent and importance of causes and of its effects, it seems likely that it will affect the incidence and prevalence of both residual and imported infections in Europe. Climate affects mainly the range of infectious diseases, whereas weather affects the timing and intensity of outbreaks. Climate change scenarios include a change distribution of infectious diseases with warming and changes in outbreaks associated with weather extremes. The largest health impact from climate change for Europe doesn’t come from vector borne infectious diseases. This does not mean that these types of health impacts will not arise in Europe. The ranges of several vector-borne diseases or their vectors are already changing in altitude due to warming. In addition, more intense weather events create conditions conductive to outbreaks of infectious diseases: Heavy rains leave insect breeding sites, drive rodents from burrows, and contaminate clean water systems. The incidence of mosquito-borne parasitic and viral diseases, are among those diseases most sensitive to climate. Climate change affect disease transmission by shifting the vector’s geographic range and by shortening the pathogen incubation period. climate-related increases in temperature in sea surface and level would lead to higher incidence of waterborne infectious and toxin-related illnesses, such as cholera and seafood intoxication. Climate changes all around the world with impact in Europe are demonstrated by the fact that recent cases of cholera have been imported to Europe from Kenya, where spreading epidemic has been linked to the El Niño phenomenon, originated from the Pacific Ocean. Human migration and damage to health infrastructures from aberrant climate changes could indirectly contribute to disease transmission. Human susceptibility to infections might be further compounded by alterations in the human immune system caused by increased exposure to ultraviolet radiation and malnutrition due to alterations in agricultural products. Different kind of incidents in Europe with extreme weather events demonstrated effects on public health. The recent outbreak of the insect-borne Chikungunya virus in Italy in 2007 is an example of the kind of new health threat that the EU must be vigilant to confront. In addition, health effects of flooding, have been related to an excess cases of leptospirosis and campylobacter enteritis. Such examples have been demonstrated reported after flooding in the Czech Republic. Similarly, an increase of cryptosporidiosis in the United Kingdom has been related to flooding. Changing vector distributions associated with tickborne encephalitis and malaria have also been dempostrated in EU. A recently reported case of malaria in Italy in June 2008, suspected to be indigenously acquired, has shown how easily malaria could be reintroduced into several countries in the region. Another case of malaria in Greece in May 2010 affecting a young man living in a forestry region was claimed at KEELPNO-the Greek Center for disease control. Would this latest case be considered closely related to the one from Italy? If yes, then Public Health Services should elaborate plans to affront possible tickborne diseases. Heat waves are important causes of mortality on mortality are important. The deaths seen in France in 2003 from a heat wave are projected to be repeated, as heat waves become more severe. However, heat waves impacts on the transmission and severity of infectious diseases have not been elucidated. Finally scientific challenges include the elucudation of climate changes and extreme weather condition impact on infection transmission and outcome, human immune system changes and infection response, outbreak scenarios, animal and plant health and public health preparedness. European action plans to affront climate changes related health and infection problems are developed by the EU Commission at different levels and jointly by different DGs. In a few words within the EU the following points on human, animal and plant health are considered a priority: * Strengthening cooperation between the services of these three branches of health (human, animals, plants); * Developing action plans in the event of extreme weather conditions, in order to be better prepared and to react in the best way; * Gathering more reliable information on the risks of climate change whilst maintaining international cooperation, in particular with the WHO, as cooperation beyond that between Member States will be required to be more effective; * Providing additional effort to identify the most effective measures; * Improving the surveillance and the control of the animal diseases. The European Commission has decided to consider climate change, and the consequences it has on health, with greater importance whilst being aware that it is at the root of numerous diseases.     

A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change

Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003–2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector‐borne disease under climate change.     

Evaluating within‐population variability in behavior and demography for the adaptive potential of a dispersal‐limited species to climate change

Multiple pathways exist for species to respond to changing climates. However, responses of dispersal‐limited species will be more strongly tied to ability to adapt within existing populations as rates of environmental change will likely exceed movement rates. Here, we assess adaptive capacity in Plethodon cinereus, a dispersal‐limited woodland salamander. We quantify plasticity in behavior and variation in demography to observed variation in environmental variables over a 5‐year period. We found strong evidence that temperature and rainfall influence P. cinereus surface presence, indicating changes in climate are likely to affect seasonal activity patterns. We also found that warmer summer temperatures reduced individual growth rates into the autumn, which is likely to have negative demographic consequences. Reduced growth rates may delay reproductive maturity and lead to reductions in size‐specific fecundity, potentially reducing population‐level persistence. To better understand within‐population variability in responses, we examined differences between two common color morphs. Previous evidence suggests that the color polymorphism may be linked to physiological differences in heat and moisture tolerance. We found only moderate support for morph‐specific differences for the relationship between individual growth and temperature. Measuring environmental sensitivity to climatic variability is the first step in predicting species' responses to climate change. Our results suggest phenological shifts and changes in growth rates are likely responses under scenarios where further warming occurs, and we discuss possible adaptive strategies for resulting selective pressures.     

Interactive effects of ozone and climate on water use, soil moisture content and streamflow in a southern Appalachian forest in the USA

* Documentation of the degree and direction of effects of ozone on transpiration of canopies of mature forest trees is critically needed to model ozone effects on forest water use and growth in a warmer future climate. * Patterns of sap flow in stems and soil moisture in the rooting zones of mature trees, coupled with late-season streamflow in three forested watersheds in east Tennessee, USA, were analyzed to determine relative influences of ozone and other climatic variables on canopy physiology and streamflow patterns. * Statistically significant increases in whole-tree canopy conductance, depletion of soil moisture in the rooting zone, and reduced late-season streamflow in forested watersheds were detected in response to increasing ambient ozone levels. * Short-term changes in canopy water use and empirically modeled streamflow patterns over a 23-yr observation period suggest that current ambient ozone exposures may exacerbate the frequency and level of negative effects of drought on forest growth and stream health.     

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context‐dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non‐native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.     

Dispersal response to climate change: scaling down to intraspecific variation

Range shift, a widespread response to climate change, will depend on species abilities to withstand warmer climates. However, these abilities may vary within species and such intraspecific variation can strongly impact species responses to climate change. Facing warmer climates, individuals should disperse according to their thermal optimum with consequences for species range shifts. Here, we studied individual dispersal of a reptile in response to climate warming and preferred temperature using a semi‐natural warming experiment. Individuals with low preferred temperatures dispersed more from warmer semi‐natural habitats, whereas individuals with higher preferred temperatures dispersed more from cooler habitats. These dispersal decisions partly matched phenotype‐dependent survival rates in the different thermal habitats, suggesting adaptive dispersal decisions. This process should result into a spatial segregation of thermal phenotypes along species moving ranges which should facilitate local adaptation to warming climates. We therefore call for range shift models including intraspecific variation in thermal phenotype and dispersal decision.     

Photoperiod cues and patterns of genetic variation limit phenological responses to climate change in warm parts of species’ range: Modeling diameter‐growth cessation in coast Douglas‐fir

The phenology of diameter‐growth cessation in trees will likely play a key role in mediating species and ecosystem responses to climate change. A common expectation is that warming will delay cessation, but the environmental and genetic influences on this process are poorly understood. We modeled the effects of temperature, photoperiod, and seed‐source climate on diameter‐growth‐cessation timing in coast Douglas‐fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree) using high‐frequency growth measurements across broad environmental gradients for a range of genotypes from different seed sources. Our model suggests that cool temperatures or short photoperiods can induce cessation in autumn. At cool locations (high latitude and elevation), cessation seems to be induced primarily by low temperatures in early autumn (under relatively long photoperiods), so warming will likely delay cessation and extend the growing season. But at warm locations (low latitude or elevation), cessation seems to be induced primarily by short photoperiods later in autumn, so warming will likely lead to only slight extensions of the growing season, reflecting photoperiod limitations on phenological shifts. Trees from seed sources experiencing frequent frosts in autumn or early winter tended to cease growth earlier in the autumn, potentially as an adaptation to avoid frost. Thus, gene flow into populations in warm locations with little frost will likely have limited potential to delay mean cessation dates because these populations already cease growth relatively late. In addition, data from an abnormal heat wave suggested that very high temperatures during long photoperiods in early summer might also induce cessation. Climate change could make these conditions more common in warm locations, leading to much earlier cessation. Thus, photoperiod cues, patterns of genetic variation, and summer heat waves could limit the capacity of coast Douglas‐fir to extend its growing season in response to climate change in the warm parts of its range.     

Quantifying the health impacts of air pollution under a changing climate—a review of approaches and methodology

Climate change has been predicted to affect future air quality, with inevitable consequences for health. Quantifying the health effects of air pollution under a changing climate is crucial to provide evidence for actions to safeguard future populations. In this paper, we review published methods for quantifying health impacts to identify optimal approaches and ways in which existing challenges facing this line of research can be addressed. Most studies have employed a simplified methodology, while only a few have reported sensitivity analyses to assess sources of uncertainty. The limited investigations that do exist suggest that examining the health risk estimates should particularly take into account the uncertainty associated with future air pollution emissions scenarios, concentration-response functions, and future population growth and age structures. Knowledge gaps identified for future research include future health impacts from extreme air pollution events, interactions between temperature and air pollution effects on public health under a changing climate, and how population adaptation and behavioural changes in a warmer climate may modify exposure to air pollution and health consequences.     

Asynchronous range shifts drive alpine plant–pollinator interactions and reduce plant fitness

Climate change is driving species' range shifts, which are in turn disrupting species interactions due to species‐specific differences in their abilities to migrate in response to climate. We evaluated the consequences of asynchronous range shifts in an alpine plant–pollinator community by transplanting replicated alpine meadow turfs downslope along an elevational gradient thereby introducing them to warmer climates and novel plant and pollinator communities. We asked how these novel plant–pollinator interactions affect plant reproduction. We found that pollinator communities differed substantially across the elevation/temperature gradient, suggesting that these plants will likely interact with different pollinator communities with warming climate. Contrary to the expectation that floral visitation would increase monotonically with warmer temperatures at lower elevations, visitation rate to the transplanted communities peaked under intermediate warming at midelevation sites. In contrast, visitation rate generally increased with temperature for the local, lower elevation plant communities surrounding the experimental alpine turfs. For two of three focal plant species in the transplanted high‐elevation community, reproduction declined at warmer sites. For these species, reproduction appears to be dependent on pollinator identity such that reduced reproduction may be attributable to decreased visitation from key pollinator species, such as bumble bees, at warmer sites. Reproduction in the third focal species appears to be primarily driven by overall pollinator visitation rate, regardless of pollinator identity. Taken together, the results suggest climate warming can indirectly affect plant reproduction via changes in plant–pollinator interactions. More broadly, the experiment provides a case study for predicting the outcome of novel species interactions formed under changing climates.     

Increases in disturbance and reductions in habitat size interact to suppress predator body size

Food webs are strongly size‐structured so will be vulnerable to changes in environmental factors that affect large predators. However, mechanistic understanding of environmental controls of top predator size is poorly developed. We used streams to investigate how predator body size is altered by three fundamental climate change stressors: reductions in habitat size, increases in disturbance and warmer temperatures. Using new survey data from 74 streams, we showed that habitat size and disturbance were the most important stressors influencing predator body size. A synergistic interaction between that habitat size and disturbance due to flooding meant the sizes of predatory fishes peaked in large, benign habitats and their body size decreased as habitats became either smaller or harsher. These patterns were supported by experiments indicating that habitat‐size reductions and increased flood disturbance decreased both the abundance and biomass of large predators. This research indicates that interacting climate change stressors can influence predator body size, resulting in smaller predators than would be predicted from examining an environmental factor in isolation. Thus, climate‐induced changes to key interacting environmental factors are likely to have synergistic impacts on predator body size which, because of their influence on the strength of biological interactions, will have far‐reaching effects on food‐web responses to global environmental change.     

Winter Conditions and Land Cover Structure the Subnivium,A Seasonal Refuge beneath the Snow

In seasonally snow-covered environments, many organisms endure winter by using the subnivium, a below-snow thermally stable seasonal refugium. Because the insulation of snow is dependent on snow depth and density, the stability of temperatures within the subnivium varies across land cover types. Additionally, across much of the Northern Hemisphere snow extent, depth and duration are generally decreasing while snow density is increasing due to climate change. These changes are likely to destabilize the thermal profile of the subnivium, although they have not yet been quantified. To explore the effects of land cover and climate change on the subnivium, we measured snow pack characteristics (depth and density), and ambient and subnivium temperatures from three different land cover types (prairie, deciduous forest, and coniferous forest) and within a micro-greenhouse (2.5 x 2.5 x 2 m) that maintained a temperature of 5°C warmer than outdoor ambient temperatures, and automatically opened during snow events throughout the winter of 2013/14. We found that the mean daily subnivium temperature was significantly colder in the deciduous cover type than the prairie cover type, and that prairie had higher maximum subnivium temperatures than both of the other cover types. Our climate change simulation revealed that, although ambient temperatures within the micro-greenhouse were 5°C warmer than outside the greenhouse, the daily minimum subnivium temperature was significantly lower inside the greenhouse. Our findings suggest that climate change could have considerable effects on the refuge quality of the subnivium, and that some cover types appear to be more susceptible to these effects than others.