Climate,environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is owing not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but also, perhaps most crucially, to the multitude of epidemiological, ecological and socio-economic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the past 10–15 years. In this review, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector–pathogen systems.     

Invited review: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,agriculture, and food—A case of shifting cultivation and history

Since 1990, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has produced five Assessment Reports (ARs), in which agriculture as the production of food for humans via crops and livestock have featured in one form or another. A constructed database of the ca. 2,100 cited experiments and simulations in the five ARs was analyzed with respect to impacts on yields via crop type, region, and whether adaptation was included. Quantitative data on impacts and adaptation in livestock farming have been extremely scarce in the ARs. The main conclusions from impact and adaptation are that crop yields will decline, but that responses have large statistical variation. Mitigation assessments in the ARs have used both bottom‐up and top‐down methods but need better to link emissions and their mitigation with food production and security. Relevant policy options have become broader in later ARs and included more of the social and nonproduction aspects of food security. Our overall conclusion is that agriculture and food security, which are two of the most central, critical, and imminent issues in climate change, have been dealt with an unfocussed and inconsistent manner between the IPCC five ARs. This is partly a result of not only agriculture spanning two IPCC working groups but also the very strong focus on projections from computer crop simulation modeling. For the future, we suggest a need to examine interactions between themes such as crop resource use efficiencies and to include all production and nonproduction aspects of food security in future roles for integrated assessment models.     

Impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health outcomes: an umbrella review of global evidence

The impact of air pollution and climate change on mental health has recently raised strong concerns. However, a comprehensive overview analyzing the existing evidence while addressing relevant biases is lacking. This umbrella review systematically searched the PubMed/Medline, Scopus and PsycINFO databases (up to June 26, 2023) for any systematic review with meta-analysis investigating the association of air pollution or climate change with mental health outcomes. We used the R metaumbrella package to calculate and stratify the credibility of the evidence according to criteria (i.e., convincing, highly suggestive, suggestive, or weak) that address several biases, complemented by sensitivity analyses. We included 32 systematic reviews with meta-analysis that examined 284 individual studies and 237 associations of exposures to air pollution or climate change hazards and mental health outcomes. Most associations (n=195, 82.3%) involved air pollution, while the rest (n=42, 17.7%) regarded climate change hazards (mostly focusing on temperature: n=35, 14.8%). Mental health outcomes in most associations (n=185, 78.1%) involved mental disorders, followed by suicidal behavior (n=29, 12.4%), access to mental health care services (n=9, 3.7%), mental disorders-related symptomatology (n=8, 3.3%), and multiple categories together (n=6, 2.5%). Twelve associations (5.0%) achieved convincing (class I) or highly suggestive (class II) evidence. Regarding exposures to air pollution, there was convincing (class I) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to solvents and a higher incidence of dementia or cognitive impairment (odds ratio, OR=1.139), and highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between long-term exposure to some pollutants and higher risk for cognitive disorders (higher incidence of dementia with high vs. low levels of carbon monoxide, CO: OR=1.587; higher incidence of vascular dementia per 1 μg/m³ increase of nitrogen oxides, NO_x: hazard ratio, HR=1.004). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between exposure to airborne particulate matter with diameter ≤10 μm (PM₁₀) during the second trimester of pregnancy and the incidence of post-partum depression (OR=1.023 per 1 μg/m³ increase); and for the association between short-term exposure to sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and schizophrenia relapse (risk ratio, RR=1.005 and 1.004 per 1 μg/m³ increase, respectively 5 and 7 days after exposure). Regarding climate change hazards, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased temperature and suicide- or mental disorders-related mortality (RR=1.024), suicidal behavior (RR=1.012), and hospital access (i.e., hospitalization or emergency department visits) due to suicidal behavior or mental disorders (RR=1.011) or mental disorders only (RR=1.009) (RR values per 1°C increase). There was also highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between short-term exposure to increased apparent temperature (i.e., the temperature equivalent perceived by humans) and suicidal behavior (RR=1.01 per 1°C increase). Finally, there was highly suggestive (class II) evidence for the association between the temporal proximity of cyclone exposure and severity of symptoms of post-traumatic stress disorder (r=0.275). Although most of the above associations were small in magnitude, they extend to the entire world population, and are therefore likely to have a substantial impact. This umbrella review classifies and quantifies for the first time the global negative impacts that air pollution and climate change can exert on mental health, identifying evidence-based targets that can inform future research and population health actions.     

The broad impacts of corn stover and wheat straw removal for biofuel production on crop productivity,soil health and greenhouse gas emissions: A review

Biofuel production from crop residues is widely recognized as an essential component of developing a bioeconomy, but the removal of crop residues still raises many questions about the sustainability of the cropping system. Therefore, this study reviews the sustainability effects of crop residues removal for biofuel production in terms of crop production, soil health and greenhouse gas emissions. Most studies found little evidence that residue management had long‐term impacts on grain yield unless the available water is limited. In years when water was not limiting, corn and wheat removal rates ≥90% produced similar or greater grain yield than no removal in most studies. Conversely, when water was limiting, corn grain yield decreased up to 21% with stover removal ≥90% in some studies. Changes in soil organic fractions and nutrients depended largely on the amount of residue returned, soil depth and texture, slope and tillage. Reductions in organic fractions occurred primarily with complete stover removal, in the top 15–30 cm in fine‐textured soils. Soil erosion, water runoff and leaching of nutrients such as total nitrogen (N) and extractable soil potassium decreased when no more than 30% of crop residues were removed. Stover management effects on soil bulk density varied considerably depending on soil layer, and residue and tillage management, with removal rates of less than 50% helping to maintain the soil aggregate stability. Reductions in CO₂ and N₂O fluxes typically occurred following complete residue removal. The use of wheat straw typically increased CH₄ emissions, and above or equal to 8 Mg/ha wheat straw led to the largest CO₂ and N₂O emissions, regardless of N rates. Before using crop residues for biofuel production, it should therefore always be checked whether neutral to positive sustainability effects can be maintained under the site‐specific conditions.     

The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

There is strong evidence to suggest that climate change has, and will continue to affect the occurrence, distribution and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain (GB). This paper reviews how climate change could affect livestock diseases in GB. Factors influenced by climate change and that could affect livestock diseases include the molecular biology of the pathogen itself; vectors (if any); farming practice and land use; zoological and environmental factors; and the establishment of new microenvironments and microclimates. The interaction of these factors is an important consideration in forecasting how livestock diseases may be affected. Risk assessments should focus on looking for combinations of factors that may be directly affected by climate change, or that may be indirectly affected through changes in human activity, such as land use (e.g. deforestation), transport and movement of animals, intensity of livestock farming and habitat change. A risk assessment framework is proposed, based on modules that accommodate these factors. This framework could be used to screen for the emergence of unexpected disease events.     

Climate change-induced ecosystem disturbance: a review on sclerophyllous and semi-deciduous forests in Tunisia

According to the sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global climate change is now unequivocal. Tunisia, like many other countries, has been affected by climate changes, including rising temperatures, intense heatwaves, and altered precipitation regimes. Tunisia's mean annual temperatures has risen about +1.4 °C in the twentieth century, with the most rapid warming taking place since the 1970s. Drought represents a primary contributing factor to tree decline and dieback. Long-term drought can result in reduced growth and health of trees, thereby increasing their susceptibility to insect pests and pathogens. Reported increases in tree mortality point toward accelerating global forest vulnerability under hotter temperatures and longer, more intense droughts. In order to assess the effect of these climate changes on the current state of forest ecosystems in Tunisia and their evolution, an investigative study was required. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the effects of climate change on sclerophyllous and semi-deciduous forest ecosystems in Tunisia. Natural disturbance during recent years, as well as the adaptability and resilience of some forest species to climate change, were surveyed. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is a multi-scalar drought index based on climate data that has been used to analyse drought variability. The SPEI time scale analysis showed a negative trend over the 1955–2021 period in Tunisian forest regions. In 2021, Tunisia lost 280 km² of tree cover to fires, which is equivalent to 26% of the total lost area between 2008 and 2021. Changing climate conditions have also affected phenological parameters, with an advance in the start of the green season (SOS) of 9.4 days, a delay at the end of the green season (EOS) of 5 days, with a consequent extended duration of the green season (LOS) by an average of 14.2 days. All of these alarming findings invite us to seek adaptation strategies for forest ecosystems. Adapting forests to climate change is therefore a challenge for scientists as well as policymakers and managers.     

Omega-3: a link between global climate change and human health

In recent years, global climate change has been shown to detrimentally affect many biological and environmental factors, including those of marine ecosystems. In particular, global climate change has been linked to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide, UV irradiation, and ocean temperatures, resulting in decreased marine phytoplankton growth and reduced synthesis of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs). Marine phytoplankton are the primary producers of omega-3 PUFAs, which are essential nutrients for normal human growth and development and have many beneficial effects on human health. Thus, these detrimental effects of climate change on the oceans may reduce the availability of omega-3 PUFAs in our diets, exacerbating the modern deficiency of omega-3 PUFAs and imbalance of the tissue omega-6/omega-3 PUFA ratio, which have been associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes, and neurodegenerative disease. This article provides new insight into the relationship between global climate change and human health by identifying omega-3 PUFA availability as a potentially important link, and proposes a biotechnological strategy for addressing the potential shortage of omega-3 PUFAs in human diets resulting from global climate change.     

The ozone component of global change: potential effects on agricultural and horticultural plant yield, product quality and interactions with invasive species

The productivity,product quality and competitive ability of important agricultural and horticultural plants in many regions of the world may be adversely affected by current and anticipated concentrations of groundlevel ozone (O3).Exposure to elevated O3 typically results in suppressed photosynthesis,accelerated senescence,decreased growth and lower yields.Various approaches used to evaluate O3 effects generally concur that current yield losses range from 5% to 15% among sensitive plants.There is,however,considerable genetic variability in plant responses to O3.To illustrate this,we show that ambient O3 concentrations in the eastern United States cause substantially different levels of damage to otherwise similar snap bean cultivars.Largely undesirable effects of O3 can also occur in seed and fruit chemistry as well as in forage nutritive value,with consequences for animal production.Ozone may alter herbicide efficacy and foster establishment of some invasive species.We conclude that current and projected levels of O3 in many regions worldwide are toxic to sensitive plants of agricultural and horticultural significance.Plant breeding that incorporates O3 sensitivity into selection strategies will be increasingly necessary to achieve sustainable production with changing atmospheric composition,while reductions in O3 precursor emissions will likely benefit world food production and reduce atmospheric concentrations of an important greenhouse gas.