Corridors and barriers in biodiversity conservation: a novel resource-based habitat perspective for butterflies

Habitat loss and fragmentation, exacerbated by projected climate change, present the greatest threats to preservation of global biodiversity. As increasing habitat fragmentation and isolation of residual fragments exceeds the dispersal capacity of species, there is the growing need to address connectivity to maintain diversity. Traditionally, habitat corridors have been proposed as a solution. But, the concept of corridors (barriers) is poorly understood; typically they are defined as linear habitats linking up habitat patchwork, and are advocated without a detailed understanding of the elements making up species’ habitats and the cost-effectiveness of alternative solutions. Yet, landscapes comprise an enormous range of ‘linear’ structures that can function in different ways to promote species’ persistence and diversity. In this review, a functional definition of corridor (barrier) is developed to give prominence to connectivity as opposed to ad hoc structures purported to advance connectivity. In developing the concept, urgency to accommodate environmental changes compels a growing emphasis on organism diversity rather than a preoccupation with single species conservation. The review, in focusing on butterflies to address the issue of corridors for patchwork connectivity, draws attention to fundamental divisions among organisms in any taxon: generalists and specialists. Both groups benefit from large patches as these necessarily house species with specialist resources as well as generalists with very different resource types. But, generalists and specialists require very different solutions for connectivity, from short-range habitat corridors and gateways for specialists to habitat and resource stepping stones (nodes, surfaces) for generalists. Connectivity over extensive areas is most critical for moderate generalists and their conservation requires emphasis being placed on space–time resource heterogeneity; landscape features, of whatever dimensionality and structure, provide a vital framework for developing the variety of suitable conditions and resources for enhancing their diversity.     

Assessing the landscape functional connectivity using movement maps: a case study with endemic Azorean insects

There is a vast body of literature aiming to predict, for a large number of taxa, the spatial distribution of suitable areas given the expected future changes of climatic conditions. However, such studies often overlook the role of landscape functional connectivity. This is particularly relevant for species with low vagility, as ground-dwelling insects, inhabiting areas with high human pressure due to habitat destruction and fragmentation, namely in the islands. In this study, we developed an individual-based model (IBM) that simulates individual movement according to landscape resistance and mortality probability, in order to derive the landscape movement map, and applied it to five endemic ground-dwelling insects of Terceira Island (Azores). We then confronted the movement maps of each species against the species distribution models previously developed for both current and future climatic conditions, quantifying the amount of important movement areas that are enclosed by the distribution polygons. We further sought to identify where habitat restoration would increase the overall connectivity among large habitat patches. Our results showed that, for both timeframes, the distribution models enclosed small amounts of areas predicted to be important for animal movement. Additionally, we predicted strong reductions (up to 94%) of these important areas for functional connectivity. We also identified areas in-between native forest of primary importance for restoration that may significantly increase the probability of persistence of our model species. We anticipate that this study will be useful to both conservation planners and ecologists seeking to understand species movement and dispersal both is islands and elsewhere.     

How interactions between animal movement and landscape processes modify local range dynamics and extinction risk

Forecasts of range dynamics now incorporate many of the mechanisms and interactions that drive species distributions. However, connectivity continues to be simulated using overly simple distance-based dispersal models with little consideration of how the individual behaviour of dispersing organisms interacts with landscape structure (functional connectivity). Here, we link an individual-based model to a niche-population model to test the implications of this omission. We apply this novel approach to a turtle species inhabiting wetlands which are patchily distributed across a tropical savannah, and whose persistence is threatened by two important synergistic drivers of global change: predation by invasive species and overexploitation. We show that projections of local range dynamics in this study system change substantially when functional connectivity is modelled explicitly. Accounting for functional connectivity in model simulations causes the estimate of extinction risk to increase, and predictions of range contraction to slow. We conclude that models of range dynamics that simulate functional connectivity can reduce an important source of bias in predictions of shifts in species distributions and abundances, especially for organisms whose dispersal behaviours are strongly affected by landscape structure.     

MigClim: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Aim Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distributions using models based on ecological niche theory, but most of them have ignored dispersal‐limitations, assuming dispersal to be either unlimited or null. Depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under‐ or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of ‘potentially suitable’ and ‘potentially colonizable’ habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed Mig Clim, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. Mig Clim implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, landscape fragmentation or long‐distance dispersal. Location Western Swiss Alps. Methods Using our Mig Clim model, several simulations were run for two virtual species by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the 100‐year period 2001–2100 and three different IPCC‐based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Results of dispersal‐limited projections were compared with unlimited and no‐dispersal projections. Results Our simulations indicate that: (1) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using Mig Clim can differ significantly (up to more than 95% difference in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (2) this divergence increases under more extreme climate warming scenarios and over longer time periods; and (3) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be as large as the one related to dispersal parameters. Main conclusions Accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections of species distribution under climate change scenarios.     

Traits related to species persistence and dispersal explain changes in plant communities subjected to habitat loss

Aim Habitat fragmentation is a major driver of biodiversity loss but it is insufficiently known how much its effects vary among species with different life‐history traits; especially in plant communities, the understanding of the role of traits related to species persistence and dispersal in determining dynamics of species communities in fragmented landscapes is still limited. The primary aim of this study was to test how plant traits related to persistence and dispersal and their interactions modify plant species vulnerability to decreasing habitat area and increasing isolation. Location Five regions distributed over four countries in Central and Northern Europe. Methods Our dataset was composed of primary data from studies on the distribution of plant communities in 300 grassland fragments in five regions. The regional datasets were consolidated by standardizing nomenclature and species life‐history traits and by recalculating standardized landscape measures from the original geographical data. We assessed the responses of plant species richness to habitat area, connectivity, plant life‐history traits and their interactions using linear mixed models. Results We found that the negative effect of habitat loss on plant species richness was pervasive across different regions, whereas the effect of habitat isolation on species richness was not evident. This area effect was, however, not equal for all the species, and life‐history traits related to both species persistence and dispersal modified plant sensitivity to habitat loss, indicating that both landscape and local processes determined large‐scale dynamics of plant communities. High competitive ability for light, annual life cycle and animal dispersal emerged as traits enabling species to cope with habitat loss. Main conclusions In highly fragmented rural landscapes in NW Europe, mitigating the spatial isolation of remaining grasslands should be accompanied by restoration measures aimed at improving habitat quality for low competitors, abiotically dispersed and perennial, clonal species.     

Interactive effects of landscape and weather on dispersal

Over the last decades, many species have been forced to track their shifting climate envelopes, and at the same time man‐induced landscape fragmentation has led to the global decrease of natural habitat availability and connectivity. The interaction between these two co‐occurring global environmental changes might have very strong effects on biodiversity that are still understudied. Species‐specific responses to these environmental changes critically depend on individual dispersal, either to track suitable climatic conditions or to cope with landscape fragmentation. Here we study how dispersal in an ectotherm is affected by interactions between landscape fragmentation and weather conditions. We show that both the emigration rates out of suitable habitats and the topology of the trajectory of dispersing individuals were affected by temperature and landscape fragmentation. The emigration rate was temperature‐dependent in fragmented landscapes, with butterflies emigrating more at high temperatures. The emigration rate was temperature insensitive in more continuous landscapes. Move length was farther at low temperatures and less at high temperatures in fragmented landscapes. Move length was less at low temperatures and farther at high temperatures in more continuous landscapes. To our knowledge only two recent studies have documented patterns of interactions between climate and fragmentation, despite the fact that they are the two main drivers of biodiversity loss worldwide. Here, we go a step further by providing mechanistic explanations to such patterns.     

Predicting the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of an imperiled freshwater mussel,Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Margaritiferidae), in riverine systems

In the face of global climate change, organisms may respond to temperature increases by shifting their ranges poleward or to higher altitudes. However, the direction of range shifts in riverine systems is less clear. Because rivers are dendritic networks, there is only one dispersal route from any given location to another. Thus, range shifts are only possible if branches are connected by suitable habitat, and stream‐dwelling organisms can disperse through these branches. We used Cumberlandia monodonta (Bivalvia: Unionoida: Margaritiferidae) as a model species to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity because a majority of contemporary populations are panmictic. We combined ecological niche models (ENMs) with population genetic simulations to investigate the effects of climate change on population connectivity and genetic diversity of C. monodonta. The ENMs were constructed using bioclimatic and landscape data to project shifts in suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. We then used forward‐time simulations to project potential changes in genetic diversity and population connectivity based on these range shifts. ENM results under current conditions indicated long stretches of highly suitable habitat in rivers where C. monodonta persists; populations in the upper Mississippi River remain connected by suitable habitat that does not impede gene flow. Future climate scenarios projected northward and headwater‐ward range contraction and drastic declines in habitat suitability for most extant populations throughout the Mississippi River Basin. Simulations indicated that climate change would greatly reduce genetic diversity and connectivity across populations. Results suggest that a single, large population of C. monodonta will become further fragmented into smaller populations, each of which will be isolated and begin to differentiate genetically. Because C. monodonta is a widely distributed species and purely aquatic, our results suggest that persistence and connectivity of stream‐dwelling organisms will be significantly altered in response to future climate change.     

Grassland connectivity by motor vehicles and grazing livestock

In addition to habitat loss and fragmentation, agricultural change has led to a change in seed dispersal processes in the rural landscape through a loss of structural and functional connectivity. Here, human‐mediated dispersal vectors are prevalent, and we explored whether the loss of connectivity via free‐ranging livestock could be mitigated by the increase in roads and motor vehicles. We found that structurally, 39% of all valuable semi‐natural grassland habitats in southern Sweden are adjacent to public road verges, which in the rural landscape are often considered to be suitable habitat for grassland species. Additionally, by collecting mud attached to cars and farming machinery and manure from livestock (cattle, horse, sheep) grazing semi‐natural grassland pasture, we found that motor vehicles are also capable seed dispersers. A similar number of species were dispersed by both vectors, although the composition of samples was quite different. Motor vehicles dispersed more grassland specialists than invasive species, although in much lower abundances than did grazing livestock. Despite these differences, motor vehicles were found to be able to disperse species with the same kinds of dispersal traits as livestock. A high number of seeds, species and specialists in manure samples means that greater movement of livestock is desirable to increase functional grassland connectivity. However, effective management could improve the suitability of roadsides as grassland corridors and increase the availability of seeds for long‐distance human‐mediated dispersal via cars and tractors. Our results suggest that in many rural landscapes, connectivity by road networks could help mediate habitat loss and fragmentation of grasslands. However, such effects can be context dependent, and the connectivity provided by roads could have serious negative consequences in other regions.     

Immigrants and refugees: the importance of dispersal in mediating biotic attrition under climate change

Montane tropical rainforests are critically important areas for global bird diversity, but are projected to be highly vulnerable to contemporary climate change. Upslope shifts of lowland species may partially offset declines in upland species but also result in a process of lowland biotic attrition. This latter process is contingent on the absence of species adapted to novel warm climates, and isolation from pools of potential colonizers. In the Australian Wet Tropics, species distribution modelling has forecast critical declines in suitable environmental area for upland endemic birds, raising the question of the future role of both natural and assisted dispersal in species survival, but information is lacking for important neighbouring rainforest regions. Here we use expanded geographic coverage of data to model the realized distributions of 120 bird species found in north‐eastern Australian rainforest, including species from potential source locations in the north and recipient locations in the south. We reaffirm previous conclusions as to the high vulnerability of this fauna to global warming, and extend the list of species whose suitable environmental area is projected to decrease. However, we find that expansion of suitable area for some species currently restricted to northern rainforests has the potential to offset biotic attrition in lowland forest of the Australian Wet Tropics. By examining contrasting dispersal scenarios, we show that responses to climate change in this region may critically depend on dispersal limitation, as climate change shifts the suitable environmental envelopes of many species south into currently unsuitable habitats. For lowland and northern species, future change in vegetation connectivity across contemporary habitat barriers is likely to be an important mediator of climate change impacts. In contrast, upland species are projected to become increasingly isolated and restricted. Their survival is likely to be more dependent on the viability of assisted migration, and the emergence and persistence of suitable environments at recipient locations.     

Potential impacts of climate and landscape fragmentation changes on plant distributions: Coupling multi-temporal satellite imagery with GIS-based cellular automata model

Climate change and landscape fragmentation are considered to be the main treats to biodiversity. In this study, probable alteration of future species distribution was tested based on the association of landscape fragmentation and climate change scenarios compared to the classical approach that assumed an unchanged landscape. Also, projected range shifts including realistic dispersal scenarios were compared with classical models, in which no or full dispersal has been supposed.A GIS-based cellular automata model, MigClim, was implemented to projection of future distribution over the 21st century for three plant species in a study area of the central Germany. For each species, simulations were run for four dispersal scenarios (full dispersal, no dispersal, realistic dispersal, and realistic dispersal with long-distance dispersal events), two landscape fragmentation (static and dynamic change) and two climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. In this research, temporal satellite data were utilized to simulate landscape changes by the use of a hybrid (CA-Markov) model for the years 2020, 2040, 2060 and 2080.A significant difference appears to be between the simulations of realistic dispersal limitations and those considering full or no dispersal for projected future distributions. Although simulations accounting for dispersal limitations produced, for our study area, results that were closer to no dispersal than to full dispersal. Additionally, our results revealed that change in landscape fragmentation is more effective than the climate change impacts on species distributions in this study.     

Seed‐dispersal interactions in fragmented landscapes – a metanetwork approach

Mutualistic interactions repeatedly preserved across fragmented landscapes can scale‐up to form a spatial metanetwork describing the distribution of interactions across patches. We explored the structure of a bird seed‐dispersal (BSD) metanetwork in 16 Neotropical forest fragments to test whether a distinct subset of BSD‐interactions may mediate landscape functional connectivity. The metanetwork is interaction‐rich, modular and poorly connected, showing high beta‐diversity and turnover of species and interactions. Interactions involving large‐sized species were lost in fragments < 10 000 ha, indicating a strong filtering by habitat fragmentation on the functional diversity of BSD‐interactions. Persistent interactions were performed by small‐seeded, fast growing plant species and by generalist, small‐bodied bird species able to cross the fragmented landscape. This reduced subset of interactions forms the metanetwork components persisting to defaunation and fragmentation, and may generate long‐term deficits of carbon storage while delaying forest regeneration at the landscape level.     

Prioritization of landscape connectivity for the conservation of Peary caribou

Adequate connectivity between discontinuous habitat patches is crucial for the persistence of metapopulations across space and time. Loss of landscape connectivity is often a direct result of fragmentation caused by human activities but also can be caused indirectly through anthropogenic climate change. Peary caribou (Rangifer tarandus pearyi) are widely dispersed across the islands of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and rely on sea ice to move seasonally between island habitats throughout their range. Seasonal connectivity provided by sea ice is necessary to maintain genetic diversity and to facilitate dispersal and recolonization of areas from which caribou have been extirpated. We used least‐cost path analysis and circuit theory to model connectivity across Peary caribou range, and future climate projections to investigate how this connectivity might be affected by a warming climate. Further, we used measures of current flow centrality to estimate the role of High Arctic islands in maintaining connectivity between Peary caribou populations and to identify and prioritize those islands and linkages most important for conservation. Our results suggest that the Bathurst Island complex plays a critical role in facilitating connectivity between Peary caribou populations. Large islands, including Banks, Victoria, and Ellesmere have limited roles in connecting Peary caribou. Without rigorous greenhouse gas emission reductions our projections indicate that by 2100 all connectivity between the more southern Peary caribou populations will be lost for important spring and early‐winter movement periods. Continued connectivity across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and possibly Peary caribou persistence, ultimately hinges on global commitments to limit climate change. Our research highlights priority areas where, in addition to emission reductions, conservation efforts to maintain connectivity would be most effective.     

Does dispersal capacity matter for freshwater biodiversity under climate change?

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Estimates of connectivity reveal non-equilibrium epiphyte occurrence patterns almost 180 years after habitat decline

Habitat loss is a major cause of species decline and extinction. Immediately after habitat loss, species occurrences are not in equilibrium with the new landscape and more closely reflect the previous landscape structure. Species with slow colonisation–extinction dynamics may display long time-lags before reaching a new equilibrium. We investigated the importance of connectivity to current and historical dispersal sources with the aim of explaining the occurrence pattern of epiphytic lichens with different traits among 104 old oaks. We used oak survey data collected from 1830 and 2009 for a Swedish landscape where oak densities declined drastically shortly after 1830. We fitted a commonly used connectivity measure and estimated the confidence interval for the spatial scale parameter. Small differences in the spatial scale parameter resulted in large differences in model fit. Connectivity to trees in 1830 better explained the occurrence of three of the four species compared to the connectivity in 2009. The explanatory power of the historical landscape structure was highest for the species with traits that may result in a low colonisation rate—both a narrow niche (here few suitable trees) and large dispersal propagules. The results suggest that oak-dependent epiphytic lichens have not reached equilibrium with the spatial landscape structure 180 years after the drastic decline in habitat. For the long-term persistence of epiphytes associated with old trees, conservation efforts should focus on (1) protecting and restoring stands where specialised species with large dispersal propagules (i.e. with low colonisation rates) occur today and (2) promoting tree regeneration in their near vicinity.     

A model-based framework for assessing the vulnerability of low dispersal vertebrates to landscape fragmentation under environmental change

Environmental changes are driving rapid geographic shifts of suitable environmental conditions for species. These might survive by tracking those shifts, however successful responses will depend on the spatial distribution of suitable habitats (current and future) and on their connectivity. Most herptiles (i.e., amphibians and reptiles) have low dispersal abilities, and therefore herptiles are among the most vulnerable groups to environmental changes. Here we assessed the vulnerability of herptile species to future climate and land use changes in fragmented landscapes. We developed and tested a methodological approach combining the strengths of Species Distribution Models (SDMs) and of functional connectivity analysis. First, using SDMs we forecasted current and future distributions of potential suitable areas as well as range dynamics for four herptile species in Portugal. SDM forecasts for 2050 were obtained under two contrasting emission scenarios, translated into moderate (low-emissions scenario) or large (high-emissions scenario) changes in climate and land use conditions. Then, we calculated and analysed functional connectivity from areas projected to lose environmental suitability towards areas keeping suitable conditions. Landscape matrix resistance and barrier effects of the national motorway network were incorporated as the main sources of fragmentation. Potential suitable area was projected to decrease under future conditions for most test species, with the high-emissions scenario amplifying the losses or gains. Spatiotemporal patterns of connectivity between potentially suitable areas signalled the most important locations for maintaining linkages and migration corridors, as well as potential conflicts due to overlaps with the current motorway network. By integrating SDM projections with functional connectivity analysis, we were able to assess and map the vulnerability of distinct herptile species to isolation or extinction under environmental change scenarios. Our framework provides valuable information, with fairly low data requirements, for optimizing biodiversity management and mitigation efforts, aiming to reduce the complex and often synergistic negative impacts of multiple environmental change drivers. Implications for conservation planning and management are discussed from a global change adaptation perspective.     

景观历史对物种多样性的影响: 以内蒙古伊敏露天煤矿为例

矿产开采等人类活动极大地改变着生态环境和景观格局, 景观变化又是导致区域和全球物种多样性丧失的主要原因之一。然而, 物种多样性对周边景观变化响应的时间尺度问题往往被人们忽略。作者以内蒙古草原区伊敏露天煤矿为例, 从物种和功能群两个层次上, 探讨了不同的空间范围(1 km、2 km、3 km、4 km、6 km、8 km、10 km)内在不同时期(1975年、1990年、2000年、2010年)的景观格局(景观优势度指数、生境综合连接度指数和生境连接度概率指数)与生物多样性之间的关系。结果显示: 当前物种多样性与开矿前和开矿初期周边景观格局之间的相关性更高, 而且与4–8 km缓冲区范围内景观格局之间的关系更加密切。不同功能群物种丰富度与景观格局之间的关系不同, 其中, 多年生根茎禾草物种丰富度和当前小尺度(1–3 km)景观格局之间呈显著相关; 多年生杂类草和开矿前和开矿初期大尺度(4–10 km)景观格局之间相关显著; 多年生丛生禾草与景观格局的相关性并未达到显著水平, 但是随着空间尺度的增加出现单峰趋势, 在6 km范围上最高; 灌木、半灌木与景观格局的相关关系随着空间尺度的增加而增加; 一二年生草本与景观格局的相关性始终最低。为此, 本文得出如下结论: (1)物种多样性对周边景观格局变化的响应存在一定时间的滞后, 人类当前不合理的土地利用方式可能引起未来一段时间内该地区一些物种的消失; (2)区域种库决定小尺度物种多样性的大小, 研究区4–8 km范围内具有连通性的生境斑块是主要的种库资源; (3)植物的繁殖策略及种子传播方式是破碎化生境中物种多样性维持的重要机制。     

Coupling inter-patch movement models and landscape graph to assess functional connectivity

Landscape connectivity is a key process for the functioning and persistence of spatially-structured populations in fragmented landscapes. Butterflies are particularly sensitive to landscape change and are excellent model organisms to study landscape connectivity. Here, we infer functional connectivity from the assessment of the selection of different landscape elements in a highly fragmented landscape in the Île-de-France region (France). Firstly we measured the butterfly preferences of the Large White butterfly (Pieris brassicae) in different landscape elements using individual release experiments. Secondly, we used an inter-patch movement model based on butterfly choices to build the selection map of the landscape elements to moving butterflies. From this map, functional connectivity network of P. brassicae was modelled using landscape graph-based approach. In our study area, we identified nine components/groups of connected habitat patches, eight of them located in urbanized areas, whereas the last one covered the more rural areas. Eventually, we provided elements to validate the predictions of our model with independent experiments of mass release-recapture of butterflies. Our study shows (1) the efficiency of our inter-patch movement model based on species preferences in predicting complex ecological processes such as dispersal and (2) how inter-patch movement model results coupled to landscape graph can assess landscape functional connectivity at large spatial scales.     

Climate and land use changes will degrade the configuration of the landscape for titi monkeys in eastern Brazil

Land use changes have profound effects on populations of Neotropical primates, and ongoing climate change is expected to aggravate this scenario. The titi monkeys from eastern Brazil (Callicebus personatus group) have been particularly affected by this process, with four of the five species now allocated to threatened conservation status categories. Here, we estimate the changes in the distribution of these titi monkeys caused by changes in both climate and land use. We also use demographic‐based, functional landscape metrics to assess the magnitude of the change in landscape conditions for the distribution predicted for each species. We built species distribution models (SDMs) based on maximum entropy for current and future conditions (2070), allowing for different global circulation models and contrasting scenarios of glasshouse gas concentrations. We refined the SDMs using a high‐resolution map of habitat remnants. We then calculated habitat availability and connectivity based on home‐range size and the dispersal limitations of the individual, in the context of a predicted loss of 10% of forest cover in the future. The landscape configuration is predicted to be degraded for all species, regardless of the climatic settings. This include reductions in the total cover of forest remnants, patch size and functional connectivity. As the landscape configuration should deteriorate severely in the future for all species, the prevention of further loss of populations will only be achieved through habitat restoration and reconnection to counteract the negative effects for these and several other co‐occurring species.     

Differences in mammal communities between forest fragments and restoration areas in the Atlantic Forest

The persistence of larger mammals in fragmented forest landscapes depends not only on the protection of remaining habitats but also on ecological restoration sites. It is known that the landscape context is an important predictor of species persistence, abundance and distribution. Here we evaluate how landscape characteristics influence the recovery of larger mammals in ecological restoration sites. We assess the richness and composition of mammals in forest fragments and restoration sites using landscape metrics such as forest cover and connectivity. Forest fragments and restoration sites present the same richness (n = 26), but differ in species composition. Some seed-dispersing mammals were absent in restoration areas, such as Alouatta guariba (brown howler monkey) and Coendou spinosus (paraguayan hairy dwarf porcupine). The percentage of forest cover in the landscape was responsible for 29.09% of the variation in species composition between the evaluated forest formations, exerting a positive or negative influence depending on the species requirements. The results demonstrate the importance of considering not only landscape metrics in an ecological restoration plan, but also the historical landscape context, such as the fauna composition before the disturbance and how these species respond to environmental changes, thus improving the success of future ecological restoration measurements and policies.     

Disregarding the edaphic dimension in species distribution models leads to the omission of crucial spatial information under climate change: the case of Quercus pubescens in France

Species distribution modelling is an easy, persuasive and useful tool for anticipating species distribution shifts under global change. Numerous studies have used only climate variables to predict future potential species range shifts and have omitted environmental factors important for determining species distribution. Here, we assessed the importance of the edaphic dimension in the niche‐space definition of Quercus pubescens and in future spatial projections under global change over the metropolitan French forest territory. We fitted two species distribution models (SDM) based on presence/absence data (111 013 plots), one calibrated from climate variables only (mean temperature of January and climatic water balance of July) and the other one from both climate and edaphic (soil pH inferred from plants) variables. Future predictions were conducted under two climate scenarios (PCM B2 and HadCM3 A2) and based on 100 simulations using a cellular automaton that accounted for seed dispersal distance, landscape barriers preventing migration and unsuitable land cover. Adding the edaphic dimension to the climate‐only SDM substantially improved the niche‐space definition of Q. pubescens, highlighting an increase in species tolerance in confronting climate constraints as the soil pH increased. Future predictions over the 21st century showed that disregarding the edaphic dimension in SDM led to an overestimation of the potential distribution area, an underestimation of the spatial fragmentation of this area, and prevented the identification of local refugia, leading to an underestimation of the northward shift capacity of Q. pubescens and its persistence in its current distribution area. Spatial discrepancies between climate‐only and climate‐plus‐edaphic models are strengthened when seed dispersal and forest fragmentation are accounted for in predicting a future species distribution area. These discrepancies highlight some imprecision in spatial predictions of potential distribution area of species under climate change scenarios and possibly wrong conclusions for conservation and management perspectives when climate‐only models are used.