Development and validation of a nomogram to predict overall survival of T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients with lymph node metastasis

PurposeTo develop a nomogram for predicting the prognosis of T1 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients with positive lymph node.MethodsT1 ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and Final Results (SEER) database. The entire cohort was randomly divided in the ratio of 7:3 into a training group (n=457) and validation group (n=192), respectively. Prognostic factors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression models. Harrell''s concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of the nomogram. The accuracy and clinical net benefit of the nomogram compared with the 7^th AJCC staging system were evaluated using net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsThe nomogram consisted of eight factors: insurance, T stage, summary stage, primary site, radiation code, chemotherapy, surgery, and radiation sequence with surgery. In the training and validation cohorts, the AUCs exceeded 0.700, and the C-index scores were 0.749 and 0.751, respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination. The consistency between the survival probability predicted by the nomogram and the actual observed probability was indicated by the calibration curve in the training and validation cohorts. For NRI>0 and IDI>0, the predictive power of the nomogram was more accurate than that of the 7^th AJCC staging system. Furthermore, the DCA curve indicated that the nomogram achieved better clinical utility than the traditional system.ConclusionsUnlike the 7^th AJCC staging system, the developed and validated nomogram can help clinical staff to more accurately, personally and comprehensively predict the 1-year and 3-year OS probability of T1 ESCC patients with lymph node metastasis.     

A predictive model with a risk-classification system for cancer-specific survival in patients with primary osteosarcoma of long bone

BackgroundOsteosarcoma (OS), most commonly occurring in long bone, is a group of malignant tumors with high incidence in adolescents. No individualized model has been developed to predict the prognosis of primary long bone osteosarcoma (PLBOS) and the current AJCC TNM staging system lacks accuracy in prognosis prediction. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on the clinicopathological factors affecting the prognosis of PLBOS patients to help clinicians predict the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of PLBOS patients.MethodWe studied 1199 PLBOS patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015 and randomly divided the dataset into training and validation cohorts at a proportion of 7:3. Independent prognostic factors determined by stepwise multivariate Cox analysis were included in the nomogram and risk-stratification system. C-index, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to verify the performance of the nomogram.ResultsAge, Histological type, Surgery of primary site, Tumor size, Local extension, Regional lymph node (LN) invasion, and Distant metastasis were identified as independent prognostic factors. C-indexes, calibration curves and DCAs of the nomogram indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination and validity. The risk-stratification system based on the nomogram showed significant differences (P < 0.05) in CSS among different risk groups.ConclusionWe established a nomogram with risk-stratification system to predict CSS in PLBOS patients and demonstrated that the nomogram had good performance. This model can help clinicians evaluate prognoses, identify high-risk individuals, and give individualized treatment recommendation of PLBOS patients.     

Development of novel DNAJB6-KIAA1522-p-mTOR three-protein prognostic prediction models for CRC

BackgroundTo evaluate the prognostic value of DNAJB6, KIAA1522, and p-mTOR expression for colorectal cancer (CRC) and to develop effective prognostic models for CRC patients.MethodsThe expression of DNAJB6, KIAA1522, and p-mTOR (Ser2448) was detected using immunohistochemistry in 329 CRC specimens. The prognostic values of the three proteins in the training cohort were assessed using Kaplan-Meier curves and univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Prediction nomogram models integrating the three proteins and TNM stage were constructed. Subsequently, calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, the concordance index (C-index), and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the performance of the nomograms in the training and validation cohorts.ResultsThe three proteins DNAJB6, KIAA1522, and p-mTOR were significantly overexpressed in CRC tissues (each P < 0.01), and their expression was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) (each P < 0.05). The area under the ROC curves (AUC) and C-index values were approximately 0.7. Additionally, the calibration curves showed that the predicted values and the actual values fit well. Furthermore, DCA curves indicated that the clinical value of the nomogram models was higher than that of TNM stage. Overall, the novel prediction models have good discriminability, sensitivity, specificity and clinical utility.ConclusionThe nomograms containing DNAJB6, KIAA1522, and p-mTOR may be promising models for predicting postoperative survival in CRC.     

A Novel Nomogram for Predicting the Overall Survival in Patients with Unresectable HCC after TACE plus Hepatic Arterial Infusion Chemotherapy

Background and aimTransarterial chemoembolization combined with hepatic arterial infusion chemotherapy (TACE-HAIC) has shown encouraging efficacy in the treatment of unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We aimed to develop a novel nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) of patients with unresectable HCC treated with TACE-HAIC.MethodsA total of 591 patients with unresectable HCC treated with TACE-HAIC between May 2009 and September 2020 were enrolled. These patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts. The independent prognostic factors were identified with Cox proportional hazards model. The model's discriminative ability and accuracy were validated using concordance index (C-index), calibration plots, the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and decision curve analyses (DCAs).ResultsThe median OS was 15.6 months. A nomogram was established based on these factors, including tumor size, vein invasion, extrahepatic metastasis, tumor number, alpha fetoprotein (AFP), and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI), to predict OS for patients with unresectable HCC treated with TACE-HAIC. The C-index of the nomogram were 0.717 in the training cohort and 0.724 in validation cohort. The calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between the predicted outcomes and the actual observations. The AUC values were better than those of three conventional staging systems. The results of DCA indicated that the nomogram may have clinical usefulness. The patients in the low-risk group had a longer OS than those in intermediate-risk and high-risk groups (P<0.001).ConclusionA prognostic nomogram was developed and validated to assist clinicians in accurately predicting the OS of patients with unresectable HCC after TACE-HAIC.     

A high-quality model for predicting the prognosis of breast neuroendocrine carcinoma to help clinicians decide on appropriate treatment methods: A population-based analysis

BackgroundBreast neuroendocrine carcinoma (NEC) is a rare malignancy with unclear treatment options and prognoses. This study aimed to construct a high-quality model to predict overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and help clinicians choose appropriate breast NEC treatments.Patients and methodsA total of 378 patients with breast NEC and 349,736 patients with breast invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) were enrolled in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 2010 and 2018. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the clinical baseline. Prognostic factors determined by multivariate Cox analysis were included in the nomogram. C-index and calibration curves were used to verify the performance of the nomogram.ResultsNomograms were constructed for the breast NEC and breast IDC groups after PSM. The C–index of the nomograms ranged from 0.834 to 0.880 in the internal validation and 0.818–0.876 in the external validation, indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination. The risk stratification system showed that patients with breast NEC had worse prognoses than those with breast IDC in the low-risk and intermediate-risk groups but had a similar prognosis that those in the high-risk group. Moreover, patients with breast NEC may have a better prognosis when undergoing surgery plus chemotherapy than when undergoing surgery alone or chemotherapy alone.ConclusionsWe established nomograms with a risk stratification system to predict OS and BCSS in patients with breast NEC. This model could help clinicians evaluate prognosis and provide individualized treatment recommendations for patients with breast NEC.     

Inference for reclassification statistics under nested and non-nested models for biomarker evaluation

Abstract

The Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI) and the Integrated Discrimination Improvement (IDI) are used to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy improvement for biomarkers in a wide range of applications. Most applications for these reclassification metrics are confined to nested model comparison. We emphasize the important extensions of these metrics to the non-nested comparison. Non-nested models are important in practice, in particular, in high-dimensional data analysis and in sophisticated semiparametric modeling. We demonstrate that the assessment of accuracy improvement may follow the familiar NRI and IDI evaluation. While the statistical properties of the estimators for NRI and IDI have been well studied in the nested setting, one cannot always rely on these asymptotic results to implement the inference procedure for practical data, especially for testing the null hypothesis of no improvement, and these properties have not been established for the non-nested setting. We propose a generic bootstrap re-sampling procedure for the construction of confidence intervals and hypothesis tests. Extensive simulations and real biomedical data examples illustrate the applicability of the proposed inference methods for both nested and non-nested models.     

Does T Stage Affect Prognosis in Patients With Stage Iv B Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Objective: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), the most common subtype of thyroid cancer, has a relatively good prognosis. The 8^th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) pathologic tumor-node-metastasis (T &lsqb;primary tumor size], N &lsqb;regional lymph nodes], M &lsqb;distant metastasis]) staging system did not take the T stage into consideration in stage IV B DTC patients. We evaluated the prognostic value of the T stage for advanced DTC survival.Methods: DTC cases that were considered stage IV B in the AJCC 8^th edition were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. T stage (AJCC 6^th standard) was categorized into T0–2, T3 and T4. We analyzed overall survival (OS) and cancer specific survival (CSS) in the overall group as well as in pathologic subgroups. We used the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test for univariate analysis and the Cox regression model for multivariate analysis.Results: A total of 519 cases were extracted. Patients with earlier T stages showed significantly better OS and CSS in univariate analysis. T stage was an independent prognostic factor for both OS and CSS in multivariate analysis. Subgroup analysis in papillary and follicular thyroid cancer showed that T4 was an independent prognostic factor for both OS and CSS.Conclusion: AJCC 8 stage IV B DTC patients could be further stratified by T stage. Further studies with larger samples and AJCC 8 T stage information are necessary.Abbreviations: AJCC = American Joint Committee on Cancer; CI = confidence interval; CSS = cancer specific survival; DTC = differentiated thyroid cancer; FTC = follicular thyroid cancer; FVPTC = follicular variant of papillary thyroid carcinoma; HR = hazard ratio; OS = overall survival; PTC = papillary thyroid cancer; SEER = surveillance, epidemiology, and end results database     

Identification and validation of autophagy-related prognostic signature for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

BackgroundMany studies have demonstrated that autophagy plays a significant role in regulating tumor growth and progression. However, the effect of autophagy-related genes (ARGs) on the prognosis have rarely been analyzed in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).MethodsWe obtained differentially expressed ARGs from HNSCC mRNA data in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. And then we performed gene ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) enrichment analyses to explore the autophagy-related biological functions. The overall survival (OS)-related and disease specific survival (DSS)-related ARGs were identified by univariate Cox regression analyses. With these genes, we established OS-related and DSS-related risk signature by LASSO regression method, respectively. We validated the reliability of the risk signature with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, Kaplan-Meier survival curves, clinical correlation analysis, and nomogram. Then we analyzed relationships between risk signature and immune cell infiltration.ResultsWe established the prognostic signatures based on 14 ARGs for OS and 12 ARGs for DSS. The ROC curves, survival analysis, and nomogram validated the predictive accuracy of the models. Clinic correlation analysis showed that the risk group was closely related to Stage, pathological T stage, pathological N stage and human papilloma virus (HPV) subtype. Cox regression demonstrated that the risk score was an independent predictor for the prognosis of HNSCC patients. Furthermore, patients in low-risk score group exhibited higher immunescore and distinct immune cell infiltration than high-risk score group. And we further analysis revealed that the copy number alterations (CNAs) of ARGs-based signature affected the abundance of tumor-infiltrating immune cells.ConclusionIn this study, we identified novel autophagy-related signature for the prediction of OS and DSS in patients with HNSCC. Meanwhile, our study provides a novel sight to understand the role of autophagy and elucidate the important role of autophagy in tumor immune microenvironment (TIME) of HNSCC.     

Preoperative prealbumin-to-fibrinogen ratio to predict survival outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after hepatic resection

BackgroundThis study aimed to evaluate the clinical application of the preoperative prealbumin-to-fibrinogen ratio (PFR) in the clinical diagnosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients and its prognostic value.MethodsThe clinical and laboratory data of 269 HCC patients undergoing surgical treatment from January 2012 to January 2017 in Taizhou Hospital were retrospectively analysed. The Cox regression model was used to analyse the correlation between the PFR and other clinicopathological factors in overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS).ResultsCox regression analysis showed that the PFR (hazard ratio (HR)=2.123; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.271-3.547; P=0.004) was an independent risk factor affecting the OS of HCC patients. Furthermore, a nomogram was built based on these risk factors. The C-index for the OS nomogram was 0.715.ConclusionsNomograms based on the PFR can be recommended as the correct and actual model to evaluate the prognosis of patients with HCC.     

Nomograms-based prediction of overall and cancer-specific survivals for patients with chromophobe renal cell carcinoma

This study built and tested two effective nomograms for the purpose of predicting cancer-specific survival and overall survival of chromophobe renal cell carcinoma (chRCC) patients. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was employed to filter independent prognostic factors predictive of cancer-specific survival and overall survival, and the nomograms were built based on a training set incorporating 2901 chRCC patients in a retrospective study (from 2004 to 2015) downloaded from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) database. The nomograms were verified on a validation cohort of 1934 patients, subsequently the performances of the nomograms were examined according to the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curves, the concordance (C-index), and decision curve analysis. The results showed that tumor grade, AJCC and N stages, race, marital status, age, histories of chemotherapy, radiotherapy and surgery were the individual prognostic factors for overall survival, and that AJCC, N and SEER stages, histories of surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy, age, tumor grade were individual prognostic factors for cancer-specific survival. According to C-indexes, receiver operating characteristic curves, and decision curve analysis outcomes, the nomograms showed a higher accuracy in predicting overall survival and OSS when compared with TNM stage and SEER stage. All the calibration curves were significantly consistent between predictive and validation sets. In this study, the nomograms, which were validated to be highly accurate and applicable, were built to facilitate individualized predictions of the cancer-specific survival and overall survival to patients diagnosed with chRCC between 2004 and 2015.     

Prognostic Value of E-cadherin-, CD44-, and MSH2-associated Nomograms in Patients With Stage II and III Colorectal Cancer

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the prognostic value of E-cadherin, CD44, and MSH2 expression for colorectal cancer (CRC) and construct nomograms that can predict prognosis. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the expression of E-cadherin, CD44, and MSH2 in 223 paraffin-embedded stage II and III CRC specimens using immunohistochemistry in the training cohort. Their prognostic values were assessed using Kaplan–Meier curves and univariate and multivariate COX regression models. Moreover, a number of risk factors were used to form nomograms to evaluate survival, and Harrell's concordance index (C-index) was used to evaluate the predictive accuracy. Further validation of the nomograms was performed in an independent cohort of 115 cases. RESULTS: Low E-cadherin expression and low CD44 expression were significantly associated with diminished overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) in stage II and III CRC patients and patients with negative MSH2 expression had better clinical outcomes. Moreover, the multivariate COX analysis identified E-cadherin, CD44 and MSH2 expression as independent prognostic factors for DFS and OS. Using these three markers and three clinicopathological risk variables, two nomograms were constructed and externally validated for predicting OS and DFS (C-index: training cohort, 0.779 (95% CI 0.722–0.835) and 0.771 (0.720–0.822), respectively; validation cohort, 0.773 (0.709–0.837) and 0.670 (0.594–0.747), respectively). CONCLUSION: The expression levels of E-cadherin, CD44 and MSH2 were independent prognostic factors for stage II and III CRC patients. By incorporating clinicopathological features and these biomarkers, we have established two nomograms that could be used to make individualized predictions for OS and DFS.     

Provider delay in treatment initiation and its influence on survival outcomes in women with operable breast cancer

AimThe goal of this study was to determine whether a delay in starting treatment via surgery or neoadjuvant chemotherapy is related to a decrease in cancer-specific survival (CSS) in women with operable breast cancer (BrCr).BackgroundLimited medical infrastructure and a lack of cancer prevention awareness in low- and middle-income countries have caused high BrCr incidence and mortality rates.MethodsWe analyzed a retrospective cohort of 720 women treated at a single center from 2005 to 2012. CSS estimates were obtained by the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox model of proportional risks was performed to obtain the risk of dying from BrCr. We also obtained the risk according to the category of treatment initiation.ResultsWomen with locally advanced stages and without hormone receptor expression were more likely to initiate treatment after 45 days. Patients in Stage IIIA had a 78.1% survival if treatment was initiated before 45 days (95% CI, 0.70–0.84) and 63.6% survival if treatment was started after 45 days (95% CI, 0.44–0.78; p < 0.001). Patients in Stage IIIB had a 62.9% survival if treatment was initiated before 45 days (95% CI, 0.53–0.72) and 57.4% survival if treatment started after 45 days (95% CI, 0.31-0.89; p < 0.001). Prognostic factors in which lower survival was recognized were Stage IIIA, Stage IIIB, treatment initiation after 45 days, and triple-negative tumors.ConclusionsThe initiation of treatment within the first 45 days of diagnosis of BrCr in women portends better survival compared with those who began treatment longer than 45 days from diagnosis.     

Positive prostate biopsy following radiotherapy can predict metastasis-free survival in localized prostate cancer

Background/aim(s)To determine the impact of post-treatment biopsy results on 10-year metastasis-free survival (MFS), overall survival (OS) and cause-specific survival (CSS) in localized prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with high-dose radiotherapy (RT).Materials/MethodsRetrospective analysis of 232 patients with T1c-T3bN0M0 PCa who underwent a prostate biopsy 24–36 months after high-dose RT. Biopsies were categorized as positive biopsy (PB) if H&E staining showed evidence of residual malignancy and negative biopsy (NB) if no malignant cells were present. Kaplan-Meier estimates of 10-year MFS, OS and CSS rates were calculated for each group and Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the hazard ratios. The median follow-up was 124 months (range 26–267).ResultsSixty-two of 232 (26.7%) patients had post-treatment positive biopsies (PB). A positive post-treatment biopsy was significantly associated with a lower 10-year MFS (78.4% vs. 95.4%, p = 0.001, HR: 3.9, 95% CI: 1.8–8.3). Although patients with PB had worse outcomes that those with NB, we could not show a statistically significant difference in OS (81.0% vs. 87.9%, p = 0.282, HR: 1.3, 95% CI: 0.7–2.3) or CSS (96.2% vs. 99.4% (p = 0.201, HR. 2.4, 95% CI: 0.6–9.7). After multivariate analysis, the strongest predictor of MFS was the post-treatment biopsy status (p < 0.001, HR: 5.4, 95% CI 2.26–12.85) followed by Gleason score (p = 0.002, HR: 2.24, 95% CI 1.33–3.79).ConclusionA positive biopsy following RT can predict MFS in localized prostate cancer. These data highlight the relevance of achieving a local control and support the use of aggressive local therapeutic interventions for PCa.     

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival in Pancreatic NeuroendocrineTumors

BACKGROUND: The objective of current study was to develop and validate a nomogram to predict overall survival in pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs). METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried for patients with PNETs between 2004 and 2015. Patients were randomly separated into the training set and the validation set. Cox regression model was used in training set to obtain independent prognostic factors to develop a nomogram for predicting overall survival (OS). The discrimination and calibration plots were used to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the nomogram. RESULTS: A total of 3142 patients with PNETs were collected from the SEER database. Sex, age, marital status, primary site, TNM stage, tumor grade, and therapy were associated with OS in the multivariate models. A nomogram was constructed based on these variables. The nomogram for predicting OS displayed better discrimination power than the Tumor-Node-Metastasis (TNM) stage systems 7th edition in the training set and validation set. The calibration curve indicated that the nomogram was able to accurately predict 3- and 5-year OS. CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram which could predict 3- and 5-year OS were established in this study. Our nomogram showed a good performance, suggesting that it could be served as an effective tool for prognostic evaluation of patients with PNETs.     

Low prevalence and independent prognostic role of del(11q) in Chinese patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia

The 11q deletion (del(11q)) is a conventional cytogenetic aberration observed in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. However, the prevalence and the prognostic value of del(11q) are still controversial. In this research, we retrospectively explored the prevalence, association, and prognostic significance of del(11q) in 352 untreated and 99 relapsed/refractory Chinese CLL patients. Totally 11.4% of untreated and 19.2% of relapsed/refractory patients harbored del(11q). Del(11q) was more common in patients with β2-microglobulin > 3.5 mg/L, positive CD38, positive zeta-chain associated protein kinase 70, unmutated immunoglobulin heavy variable-region gene and ataxia telangiectasia mutated mutation. Kaplan-Meier method and univariate Cox regression indicated that del(11q) was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival (OS). Based on the results of univariate Cox regression analysis, two nomograms that included del(11q) were established to predict survival. Desirable area under curve of receiver operating characteristic curves was obtained in the training and validation cohorts. In addition, the calibration curves for the probability of survival showed good agreement between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation. In summary, the prevalence of del(11q) is relatively low in our cohort and del(11q) is an unfavorable prognostic factor for untreated CLL patients. Besides, these two nomograms could be used to accurately predict the prognosis of untreated CLL patients.     

A preoperative model for predicting microvascular invasion and assisting in prognostic stratification in liver transplantation for HCC regarding empirical criteria

PurposeThe prediction of microvascular invasion (MVI) has increasingly been recognized to reflect prognosis involving local invasion and distant metastasis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim of this study was to assess a predictive model using preoperatively accessible clinical parameters and radiographic features developed and validated to predict MVI. This predictive model can distinguish clinical outcomes after liver transplantation (LT) for HCC patients.MethodsIn total, 455 HCC patients who underwent LT between January 1, 2015, and December 31, 2019, were retrospectively enrolled in two centers in China as a training cohort (ZFA center; n = 244) and a test cohort (SLA center; n = 211). Univariate and multivariate backward logistic regression analysis were used to select the significant clinical variables which were incorporated into the predictive nomogram associated with MVI. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves based on clinical parameters were plotted to predict MVI in the training and test sets.ResultsUnivariate and multivariate backward logistic regression analysis identified four independent preoperative risk factors for MVI: α-fetoprotein (AFP) level (p < 0.001), tumor size ((p < 0.001), peritumoral star node (p = 0.003), and tumor margin (p = 0.016). The predictive nomogram using these predictors achieved an area under curve (AUC) of 0.85 and 0.80 in the training and test sets. Furthermore, MVI could discriminate different clinical outcomes within the Milan criteria (MC) and beyond the MC.ConclusionsThe nomogram based on preoperatively clinical variables demonstrated good performance for predicting MVI. MVI may serve as a supplement to the MC.     

Development and Validation of Nomograms for Predicting Overall and Breast Cancer–Specific Survival in Young Women with Breast Cancer: A Population-Based Study

INTRODUCTION: The objective of current study was to develop and validate comprehensive nomograms for predicting the survival of young women with breast cancer. METHODS: Women aged <40 years diagnosed with invasive breast cancer between 1990 and 2010 were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database and randomly divided into training (n = 12,465) and validation (n = 12,424) cohorts. A competing-risks model was used to estimate the probability of breast cancer–specific survival (BCSS). We identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for overall survival (OS) and BCSS to construct nomograms. The performance of the nomograms was assessed with respect to calibration, discrimination, and risk group stratification. RESULTS: The entire cohort comprised 24,889 patients. The 5- and 10-year probabilities of breast cancer–specific mortality were 11.6% and 20.5%, respectively. Eight independent prognostic factors for both OS and BCSS were identified and integrated for the construction of the nomograms. The calibration curves showed optimal agreement between the predicted and observed probabilities. The C-indexes of the nomograms in the training cohort were higher than those of the TNM staging system for predicting OS (0.724 vs 0.694; P < .001) and BCSS (0.733 vs 0.702; P < .001). Additionally, significant differences in survival were observed in patients stratified into different risk groups within respective TNM categories. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and validated novel nomograms that can accurately predict OS and BCSS in young women with breast cancer. These nomograms may help clinicians in making decisions on an individualized basis.     

Nomograms Aid Interpretation of Complex Regression Models

ABSTRACT Ecologists often develop complex regression models that include multiple categorical and continuous variables, interactions among predictors, and nonlinear relationships between the response and predictor variables. Nomograms, which are graphical devices for presenting mathematical functions and calculating output values, can aid biologists in interpreting and presenting these complex models. To illustrate benefits of nomograms, we developed a logistic regression model of elk (Cervus elaphus) resource selection. With this model, we demonstrated how a nomogram helps scientists and managers interpret interactions among variables, compare the relative biological importance of variables, and examine predicted shapes of relationships (e.g., linear vs. nonlinear) between response and predictor variables. Although our example focused on logistic regression, nomograms are equally useful for other linear and nonlinear models. Regardless of the approach used for model development, nomograms and other graphical summaries can help scientists and managers develop, interpret, and apply statistical models.     

Preoperative prediction of microvascular invasion in non-metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma based on nomogram analysis

PurposeThe presence of microvascular invasion (MVI) is an unfavorable prognostic factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study aimed to construct a nomogram-based preoperative prediction model of MVI, thereby assisting to preoperatively select proper surgical procedures.MethodsA total of 714 non-metastatic HCC patients undergoing radical hepatectomy were retrospectively selected from Zhongshan Hospital between 2010 and 2018, followed by random assignment into training (N = 520) and validation cohorts (N = 194). Nomogram-based prediction model for MVI risk was constructed by incorporating independent risk factors of MVI presence identified from multivariate backward logistic regression analysis in the training cohort. The performance of nomogram was evaluated by calibration curve and ROC curve. Finally, decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical utility of the nomogram.ResultsIn total, 503 (70.4%) patients presented MVI. Multivariate analysis in the training cohort revealed that age (OR: 0.98), alpha-fetoprotein (≥400 ng/mL) (OR: 2.34), tumor size (>5 cm) (OR: 3.15), cirrhosis (OR: 2.03) and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (OR: 1.61) were significantly associated with MVI presence. The incorporation of five risk factors into a nomogram-based preoperative estimation of MVI risk demonstrated satisfactory discriminative capacity, with C-index of 0.702 and 0.690 in training and validation cohorts, respectively. Calibration curve showed good agreement between actual and predicted MVI risks. Finally, DCA revealed the clinical utility of the nomogram.ConclusionThe nomogram showed a satisfactory discriminative capacity of MVI risk in HCC patients, and could be used to preoperatively estimate MVI risk, thereby establishing more rational therapeutic strategies.     

Construction and validation of a novel apoptosis-associated prognostic signature related to osteosarcoma metastasis and immune infiltration

BackgroundApoptosis played vital roles in the formation and progression of osteosarcoma. However, no studies elucidated the prognostic relationships between apoptosis-associated genes (AAGs) and osteosarcoma.MethodsThe differentially expressed genes associated with osteosarcoma metastasis and apoptosis were identified from GEO and MSigDB databases. The apoptosis-associated prognostic signature was established through univariate and multivariate cox regression analyses. The Kaplan–Meier (KM) survival curve, ROC curve and nomogram were constructed to investigate the predictive value of this signature. CIBERSORT algorithm and ssGSEA were used to explore the relationships between immune infiltration and AAG signature. The above results were validated in another GEO dataset and the expression of AAGs was also validated in osteosarcoma patient samples by immunohistochemistry.ResultsHSPB1 and IER3 were involved in AAG signature. In training and validation datasets, apoptosis-associated risk scores were negatively related to patient survival rates and the AAG signature was regarded as the independent prognostic factor. ROC and calibration curves demonstrated the signature and nomogram were reliable. GSEA revealed the signature related to immune-associated pathways. ssGSEA indicated that one immune cell and three immune functions were significantly dysregulated. The immunohistochemistry analyses of patients’ samples revealed that AAGs were significantly differently expressed between metastasis and non-metastasis osteosarcomas.ConclusionsThe present study identified and validated a novel apoptosis-associated prognostic signature related to osteosarcoma metastasis. It could serve as the potential biomarker and therapeutic targets for osteosarcoma in the future.