Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: Species profiling based on life‐history and environmental characteristics

Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio‐temporal distributions and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. To this end, we collated life‐history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life history, and climatic niche, with climate‐change‐susceptible species being distributed within the Mediterranean region, and being characterized by greater threat levels, lesser commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body and range size, and warmer thermal envelopes. Based on our results, we establish a list of species of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate‐change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool to efficiently assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities.     

Fire history and the global carbon budget: a 1°× 1° fire history reconstruction for the 20th century

A yearly global fire history is a prerequisite for quantifying the contribution of previous fires to the past and present global carbon budget. Vegetation fires can have both direct (combustion) and long‐term indirect effects on the carbon cycle. Every fire influences the ecosystem carbon budget for many years, as a consequence of internal reorganization, decomposition of dead biomass, and regrowth. We used a two‐step process to estimate these effects. First we synthesized the available data available for the 1980s or 1990s to produce a global fire map. For regions with no data, we developed estimates based on vegetation type and history. Second, we then worked backwards to reconstruct the fire history. This reconstruction was based on published data when available. Where it was not, we extrapolated from land use practices, qualitative reports and local studies, such as tree ring analysis. The resulting product is intended as a first approximation for questions about consequences of historical changes in fire for the global carbon budget. We estimate that an average of 608 Mha yr^?1 burned (not including agricultural fires) at the end of the 20th century. 86% of this occurred in tropical savannas. Fires in forests with higher carbon stocks consumed 70.7 Mha yr^?1 at the beginning of the century, mostly in the boreal and temperate forests of the Northern Hemisphere. This decreased to 15.2 Mha yr^?1 in the 1960s as a consequence of fire suppression policies and the development of efficient fire fighting equipment. Since then, fires in temperate and boreal forests have decreased to 11.2 Mha yr^?1. At the same time, burned areas increased exponentially in tropical forests, reaching 54 Mha yr^?1 in the 1990s, reflecting the use of fire in deforestation for expansion of agriculture. There is some evidence for an increase in area burned in temperate and boreal forests in the closing years of the 20th century.     

Ecological volatility and human evolution: A novel perspective on life history and reproductive strategy

Humans are characterized by a suite of traits that seem to differentiate them profoundly from closely related apes such as the gorilla, chimpanzee, and orang‐utan. These traits include longevity, cooperative breeding, stacking of offspring, lengthy maturation, and a complex life‐course profile of adiposity. When, how, and why these traits emerged during our evolutionary history is currently attracting considerable attention. Most approaches to life history emphasize dietary energy availability and the risk of mortality as the two key stresses shaping life‐history variability between and within species. The high energy costs of the large Homo brain are also seen as the central axis around which other life‐history traits were reorganized. I propose that ecological volatility may have been a key stress, selecting in favor of the suite of traits in order to tolerate periods of energy scarcity, and increase reproductive output during periods of good conditions. Theses life‐history adaptations may have preceded and enabled the trend toward encephalization. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Species‐level phylogeographical history of the endemic species Calligonum roborovskii and its close relatives in Calligonum section Medusa (Polygonaceae) in arid north‐western China

Quaternary climatic oscillations appear to have influenced the genetic diversity and evolutionary history of arid‐adapted plants. To understand the processes involved and reveal evolutionary relationships, haplotypes were examined from Calligonum roborovskii, an endemic species occurring in the arid zones across the desert regions of north‐western China, and seven other species also from Calligonum section Medusa, including C. gobicum, C. mongolicum and the narrow endemic species C. ebi‐nuricum, C. pumilum, C. taklimakanense, C. trifarium and C. yengisaricum. Forty‐three haplotypes were identified in 422 individuals from 51 natural populations, from variation of two plastid DNA intergenic spacers (rpl32‐trnL and ycf6‐psbM). A high level of total genetic diversity was found across species for which more than two populations were examined, including C. gobicum, C. mongolicum, C. pumilum and C. roborovskii. A distinct isolation‐by‐distance pattern in each of these species was suggested by the Mantel test, indicating that restricted gene flow caused high genetic differentiation among populations. Three haplotypes were shared by two or three species each, but the other 40 haplotypes were species‐specific. The 43 haplotypes split into three major clades, but not species‐specific lineages; most of the Calligonum species were not reciprocally monophyletic, probably due to incomplete lineage sorting or introgression. The identified haplotypes were dated to 1.97 Mya (95% highest posterior density: 2.95–0.99 Mya) and diverged until the late Pleistocene, possibly linked to aridification and enlargement of deserts caused by climate changes. Variation of desert habitats during the Pleistocene might play a key role in causing the divergence.     

Climate alters the movement ecology of a non‐migratory bird

Global climate change is causing increased climate extremes threatening biodiversity and altering ecosystems. Climate is comprised of many variables including air temperature, barometric pressure, solar radiation, wind, relative humidity, and precipitation that interact with each other. As movement connects various aspects of an animal''s life, understanding how climate influences movement at a fine‐temporal scale will be critical to the long‐term conservation of species impacted by climate change. The sedentary nature of non‐migratory species could increase some species risk of extirpation caused by climate change. We used Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhite) as a model to better understand the relationship between climate and the movement ecology of a non‐migratory species at a fine‐temporal scale. We collected movement data on bobwhite from across western Oklahoma during 2019–2020 and paired these data with meteorological data. We analyzed movement in three different ways (probability of movement, hourly distance moved, and sinuosity) using two calculated movement metrics: hourly movement (displacement between two consecutive fixes an hour apart) and sinuosity (a form of tortuosity that determines the amount of curvature of a random search path). We used generalized linear‐mixed models to analyze probability of movement and hourly distance moved, and used linear‐mixed models to analyze sinuosity. The interaction between air temperature and solar radiation affected probability of movement and hourly distance moved. Bobwhite movement increased as air temperature increased beyond 10°C during low solar radiation. During medium and high solar radiation, bobwhite moved farther as air temperature increased until 25–30°C when hourly distance moved plateaued. Bobwhite sinuosity increased as solar radiation increased. Our results show that specific climate variables alter the fine‐scale movement of a non‐migratory species. Understanding the link between climate and movement is important to determining how climate change may impact a species’ space use and fitness now and in the future.     

Staying in situ or shifting range under ongoing climate change: A case of an endemic herb in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains across elevational gradients

Aim

How species respond to ongoing climate change has been a hot research topic, especially with the controversy in shifting range (movement) or persisting in local habitat (in situ) as the primary response. Assessing the relative roles of range shifts, phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation helps us predict the evolutionary fate of species. We aim to explore the evolutionary strategies of plants under climate change from a keystone herb in alpine ecosystems, Mirabilis himalaica, along its elevational gradient.

Location

Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains, China.

Methods

We combined evidence from population genomics and ecological data in both space and time to investigate the state of “staying” or “moving”. We identified migration events by assessing historical and contemporary gene flow and changes in species distribution. Morphological variation was compared by measuring five traits using specimen data. Moreover, we explored climate-driven genetic variation and local selection regimes acting on populations in the alpine landscape along an elevational gradient.

Results

Our results argue that staying in situ by morphological variation and local genetic evolution rather than range shifting plays an important role in M. himalaica response to climate change. We first found trace evidence of upward or climatic-driven shifting along an elevational gradient, although asymmetric gene flow was restricted within microenvironments of mid-elevational populations. Furthermore, morphological variation comparisons revealed clinal variation, as resource allocation showed a declining pattern in vegetative growth but increased reproductive growth with increasing elevation. Outlier tests and environment association analyses indicated adaptative loci primarily related to thermal-driven selection and continuous adaptations to high elevation in the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains.

Main Conclusions

Our findings show M. himalaica may persist in local habitats rather than shifting range under climate change, exhibiting a low risk of genomic vulnerability in current habitats. This study has important implications in improving our understanding of the evolutionary response in alpine plants to climate change.     

1965—2018年广西西江流域参考作物蒸散量时空演变及其影响因子

估算参考作物蒸散量(ET₀)有助于揭示流域的水热平衡和水循环过程,为合理利用与开发流域水资源提供基础。本研究通过重新拟合研究区的净短波辐射系数,使用改进后的Penman-Monteith模型,计算1965—2018年广西西江流域的ET₀,使用Mann-Kendall法对ET₀进行趋势分析与突变点检测,用反距离权重法插值后分析ET₀时空演变特征,根据气候因子的贡献率判断ET₀的影响因子。结果表明:在空间上,ET₀呈现随海拔降低而增加的趋势,其高值主要位于流域中部地区,而低值位于西北侧的云贵高原边缘及斜坡带,春季ET₀呈现出经度梯度性,夏季ET₀与年际的空间格局类似;在时间上,流域年均ET₀为637.2mm,增长率为-0.018 mm·a^-1,整体呈微弱的下降趋势。除春季(0.053 mm·a^-1)呈上升趋势外,夏季(-0.053 mm·a^-...     

Spatial patterns in brown bear Ursus arctos diet: the role of geographical and environmental factors

• 1 We reviewed worldwide spatial patterns in the food habits of the brown bear Ursus arctos in relation to geographical (latitude, longitude, altitude) and environmental (temperature, snow cover depth and duration, precipitation, primary productivity) variables.
• 2 We collected data from 28 studies on brown bear diet based on faecal analysis, covering the entire geographical range of this widely distributed large carnivore. We analysed separately four data sets based on different methods of diet assessment.
• 3 Temperature and snow conditions were the most important factors determining the composition of brown bear diet. Populations in locations with deeper snow cover, lower temperatures and lower productivity consumed significantly more vertebrates, fewer invertebrates and less mast. Trophic diversity was positively correlated with temperature, precipitation and productivity but negatively correlated with the duration of snow cover and snow depth. Brown bear populations from temperate forest biomes had the most diverse diet. In general, environmental factors were more explicative of diet than geographical variables.
• 4 Dietary spatial patterns were best revealed by the relative biomass and energy content methods of diet analysis, whereas the frequency of occurrence and relative biomass methods were most appropriate for investigating variation in trophic diversity.
• 5 Spatial variation in brown bear diet is the result of environmental conditions, especially climatic factors, which affect the nutritional and energetic requirements of brown bears as well as the local availability of food. The trade‐off between food availability on the one hand, and nutritional and energetic requirements on the other hand, determines brown bear foraging decisions. In hibernating species such as the brown bear, winter severity seems to play a role in determining foraging strategies. Large‐scale reviews of food habits should be based on several measures of diet composition, with special attention to those methods reflecting the energetic value of food.

     

森林凋落物分解及其对全球气候变化的响应

凋落物分解是重要的森林生态系统过程之一,受到气候、凋落物质量、土壤生物群落等生物和非生物因素的综合调控．迄今,有关不同森林生态系统和不同树种地上部分的凋落物动态、凋落物分解过程中的养分释放动态、生物和非生物因素对凋落物分解的影响等研究报道较多,但对地下凋落物的分解研究相对较少．近年来,森林凋落物分解对以大气CO2浓度增加和温度升高为主要特征的全球变化的响应逐步受到重视,但其研究结果仍具有很多不确定性．因此,未来凋落物生态研究的重点应是凋落物分解对土壤有机碳固定的贡献、地上／地下凋落物的物理、化学和生物学过程及其对各种生态因子（例如冻融、干湿交替）及交互作用的响应、凋落物特别是地下凋落物分解对全球气候变化的响应机制等方面．     

Microbial communities and their responses to simulated global change fluctuate greatly over multiple years

We used microbial lipid analysis to analyze microbial biomass and community structure during 6 years of experimental treatment at the Jasper Ridge Global Change Experiment (JRGCE), a long‐term multi‐factor global change experiment in a California annual grassland. The microbial community fingerprint and specific biomarkers varied substantially from year to year, in both control and experimental treatment plots. Possible drivers of the variability included plant growth, soil moisture, and ambient temperature. Surprisingly, background variation in the microbial community was of a larger magnitude than even very significant treatment effects, and this variation appeared to constrain responses to treatment. Microbial communities were mostly not responsive or not consistently responsive to the experimental treatments. Both arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi biomarker abundance (16 : 1 ω5c) and the fungal to bacterial ratio were lower under nitrogen addition in most years. Bacterial lipid biomarker abundances (15 : 0 iso and 16 : 1 ω7c) were higher under nitrogen addition in 2002, the year of largest microbial biomass, suggesting that bacteria could respond more to nitrogen addition in years of better growth conditions. Nitrogen addition and warming led to an interactive effect on the Gram‐positive bacterial biomarker and the fungal to bacterial ratio. These patterns indicate that in California grassland ecosystems, microbial communities may not respond substantially to future changes in climate and that nitrogen deposition may be a determinant of the soil response to global change. Further, year‐to‐year variation in microbial growth or community composition may be important determinants of ecosystem response to global change.     

Climate change and biotic invasions: a case history of a tropical woody vine

The impacts of climate change in the potential distribution and relative abundance of a C₃ shrubby vine, Cryptostegia grandiflora, were investigated using the CLIMEX modelling package. Based upon its current naturalised distribution, C. grandiflora appears to occupy only a small fraction of its potential distribution in Australia under current climatic conditions; mostly in apparently sub-optimal habitat. The potential distribution of C. grandiflora is sensitive towards changes in climate and atmospheric chemistry in the expected range of this century, particularly those that result in increased temperature and water use efficiency. Climate change is likely to increase the potential distribution and abundance of the plant, further increasing the area at risk of invasion, and threatening the viability of current control strategies markedly. By identifying areas at risk of invasion, and vulnerabilities of control strategies, this analysis demonstrates the utility of climate models for providing information suitable to help formulate large-scale, long-term strategic plans for controlling biotic invasions. The effects of climate change upon the potential distribution of C. grandiflora are sufficiently great that strategic control plans for biotic invasions should routinely include their consideration. Whilst the effect of climate change upon the efficacy of introduced biological control agents remain unknown, their possible effect in the potential distribution of C. grandiflora will likely depend not only upon their effects on the population dynamics of C. grandiflora, but also on the gradient of climatic suitability adjacent to each segment of the range boundary.     

Environmental variation and population responses to global change

Species' responses to environmental changes such as global warming are affected not only by trends in mean conditions, but also by natural and human‐induced environmental fluctuations. Methods are needed to predict how such environmental variation affects ecological and evolutionary processes, in order to design effective strategies to conserve biodiversity under global change. Here, we review recent theoretical and empirical studies to assess: (1) how populations respond to changes in environmental variance, and (2) how environmental variance affects population responses to changes in mean conditions. Contrary to frequent claims, empirical studies show that increases in environmental variance can increase as well as decrease long‐term population growth rates. Moreover, environmental variance can alter and even reverse the effects of changes in the mean environment, such that even if environmental variance remains constant, omitting it from population models compromises their ability to predict species' responses to changes in mean conditions. Drawing on theory relating these effects of environmental variance to the curvatures of population growth responses to the environment, we outline how species' traits such as phylogenetic history and body mass could be used to predict their responses to global change under future environmental variability.     

The phenology mismatch hypothesis: are declines of migrant birds linked to uneven global climate change?

1.  Migrant bird populations are declining and have been linked to anthropogenic climate change. The phenology mismatch hypothesis predicts that migrant birds, which experience a greater rate of warming in their breeding grounds compared to their wintering grounds, are more likely to be in decline, because their migration will occur later and they may then miss the early stages of the breeding season. Population trends will also be negatively correlated with distance, because the chances of phenology mismatch increase with number of staging sites.
2.  Population trends from the Palaearctic (1990–2000) and Nearctic (1980–2006) were collated for 193 spatially separate migrant bird populations, along with temperature trends for the wintering and breeding areas. An index of phenology mismatch was calculated as the difference between wintering and breeding temperature trends.
3.  In the Nearctic, phenology mismatch was correlated with population declines as predicted, but in the Palaearctic, distance was more important. This suggests that differential global climate change may be responsible for contributing to some migrant species' declines, but its effects may be more important in the Nearctic.
4.  Differences in geography and so average migration distance, migrant species composition and history of anthropogenic change in the two areas may account for the differences in the strength of the importance of phenology mismatch on migrant declines in the Nearctic and Palaearctic.     

The Role of Biota in Global Climate Change

The problem of global climate change is analyzed in the context of the balance of interdependent biotic sources and reservoirs of greenhouse gases in the continental part of northern Eurasia. Current problems are identified and the prospects for further studies of the problem are outlined.     

Solar radiation and ENSO predict fruiting phenology patterns in a 15‐year record from Kibale National Park,Uganda

Fruiting, flowering, and leaf set patterns influence many aspects of tropical forest communities, but there are few long‐term studies examining potential drivers of these patterns, particularly in Africa. We evaluated a 15‐year dataset of tree phenology in Kibale National Park, Uganda, to identify abiotic predictors of fruit phenological patterns and discuss our findings in light of climate change. We quantified fruiting for 326 trees from 43 species and evaluated these patterns in relation to solar radiance, rainfall, and monthly temperature. We used time‐lagged variables based on seasonality in linear regression models to assess the effect of abiotic variables on the proportion of fruiting trees. Annual fruiting varied over 3.8‐fold, and inter‐annual variation in fruiting is associated with the extent of fruiting in the peak period, not variation in time of fruit set. While temperature and rainfall showed positive effects on fruiting, solar radiance in the two‐year period encompassing a given year and the previous year was the strongest predictor of fruiting. As solar irradiance was the strongest predictor of fruiting, the projected increase in rainfall associated with climate change, and coincident increase in cloud cover suggest that climate change will lead to a decrease in fruiting. ENSO in the prior 24‐month period was also significantly associated with annual ripe fruit production, and ENSO is also affected by climate change. Predicting changes in phenology demands understanding inter‐annual variation in fruit dynamics in light of potential abiotic drivers, patterns that will only emerge with long‐term data.     

Non-climatic thermal adaptation: implications for species' responses to climate warming

There is considerable interest in understanding how ectothermic animals may physiologically and behaviourally buffer the effects of climate warming. Much less consideration is being given to how organisms might adapt to non-climatic heat sources in ways that could confound predictions for responses of species and communities to climate warming. Although adaptation to non-climatic heat sources (solar and geothermal) seems likely in some marine species, climate warming predictions for marine ectotherms are largely based on adaptation to climatically relevant heat sources (air or surface sea water temperature). Here, we show that non-climatic solar heating underlies thermal resistance adaptation in a rocky–eulittoral-fringe snail. Comparisons of the maximum temperatures of the air, the snail''s body and the rock substratum with solar irradiance and physiological performance show that the highest body temperature is primarily controlled by solar heating and re-radiation, and that the snail''s upper lethal temperature exceeds the highest climatically relevant regional air temperature by approximately 22°C. Non-climatic thermal adaptation probably features widely among marine and terrestrial ectotherms and because it could enable species to tolerate climatic rises in air temperature, it deserves more consideration in general and for inclusion into climate warming models.     

How phenological tracking shapes species and communities in non-stationary environments

Climate change alters the environments of all species. Predicting species responses requires understanding how species track environmental change, and how such tracking shapes communities. Growing empirical evidence suggests that how species track phenologically – how an organism shifts the timing of major biological events in response to the environment – is linked to species performance and community structure. Such research tantalizingly suggests a potential framework to predict the winners and losers of climate change, and the future communities we can expect. But developing this framework requires far greater efforts to ground empirical studies of phenological tracking in relevant ecological theory. Here we review the concept of phenological tracking in empirical studies and through the lens of coexistence theory to show why a community-level perspective is critical to accurate predictions with climate change. While much current theory for tracking ignores the importance of a multi-species context, basic community assembly theory predicts that competition will drive variation in tracking and trade-offs with other traits. We highlight how existing community assembly theory can help understand tracking in stationary and non-stationary systems. But major advances in predicting the species- and community-level consequences of climate change will require advances in theoretical and empirical studies. We outline a path forward built on greater efforts to integrate priority effects into modern coexistence theory, improved empirical estimates of multivariate environmental change, and clearly defined estimates of phenological tracking and its underlying environmental cues.