Estimating species phylogeny from gene-tree probabilities despite incomplete lineage sorting: an example from Melanoplus grasshoppers

Estimating phylogenetic relationships among closely related species can be extremely difficult when there is incongruence among gene trees and between the gene trees and the species tree. Here we show that incorporating a model of the stochastic loss of gene lineages by genetic drift into the phylogenetic estimation procedure can provide a robust estimate of species relationships, despite widespread incomplete sorting of ancestral polymorphism. This approach is applied to a group of montane Melanoplus grasshoppers for which genealogical discordance among loci and incomplete lineage sorting obscures any obvious phylogenetic relationships among species. Unlike traditional treatments where gene trees estimated using standard phylogenetic methods are implicitly equated with the species tree, with the coalescent-based approach the species tree is modeled probabilistically from the estimated gene trees. The estimated species phylogeny (the ESP) is calculated for the grasshoppers from multiple gene trees reconstructed for nuclear loci and a mitochondrial gene. This empirical application is coupled with a simulation study to explore the performance of the coalescent-based approach. Specifically, we test the accuracy of the ESP given the data based on analyses of simulated data matching the multilocus data collected in Melanoplus (i.e., data were simulated for each locus with the same number of base pairs and locus-specific mutational models). The results of the study show that ESPs can be computed using the coalescent-based approach long before reciprocal monophyly has been achieved, and that these statistical estimates are accurate. This contrasts with analyses of the empirical data collected in Melanoplus and simulated data based on concatenation of multiple loci, for which the incomplete lineage sorting of recently diverged species posed significant problems. The strengths and potential challenges associated with incorporating an explicit model of gene-lineage coalescence into the phylogenetic procedure to obtain an ESP, as illustrated by application to Melanoplus, versus concatenation and consensus approaches are discussed. This study represents a fundamental shift in how species relationships are estimated - the relationship between the gene trees and the species phylogeny is modeled probabilistically rather than equating gene trees with a species tree.     

Genealogical portraits of speciation in montane grasshoppers (genus Melanoplus) from the sky islands of the Rocky Mountains

Grasshoppers in the genus Melanoplus have undergone a radiation in the 'sky islands' of western North America, with many species originating during the Pleistocene. Despite their recent origins, phylogenetic analyses indicate that all the species exhibit monophyletic or paraphyletic gene trees. The objectives of this study were to determine whether the monophyletic genealogies are the result of a bottleneck at speciation and to investigate the extent to which the different phylogenetic states of eight species (i.e. monophyletic versus paraphyletic gene trees) can be ascribed to the effects of speciation. A coalescent simulation was used to test for a bottleneck at speciation in each species. The effective population sizes and demographic histories of species were compared across taxa to evaluate the possibility that the paraphyly versus monophyly of the species reflects differential rates of lineage loss rather than speciation mode. While coalescent analyses indicate that the monophyly of Melanoplus species might not be indicative of bottlenecks at speciation, the results suggest that the paraphyletic gene trees may reflect the demography of speciation, involving localized divergences in the ancestral species. With respect to different models of Pleistocene divergence, the data do not support a model of founder-effect speciation but are compatible with divergence in allopatric refugia.     

Coalescent-based species delimitation in an integrative taxonomy

The statistical rigor of species delimitation has increased dramatically over the past decade. Coalescent theory provides powerful models for population genetic inference, and is now increasingly important in phylogenetics and speciation research. By applying probabilistic models, coalescent-based species delimitation provides clear and objective testing of alternative hypotheses of evolutionary independence. As acquisition of multilocus data becomes increasingly automated, coalescent-based species delimitation will improve the discovery, resolution, consistency, and stability of the taxonomy of species. Along with other tools and data types, coalescent-based species delimitation will play an important role in an integrative taxonomy that emphasizes the identification of species limits and the processes that have promoted lineage diversification.     

Bayesian species delimitation combining multiple genes and traits in a unified framework

Delimitation of species based exclusively on genetic data has been advocated despite a critical knowledge gap: how might such approaches fail because they rely on genetic data alone, and would their accuracy be improved by using multiple data types. We provide here the requisite framework for addressing these key questions. Because both phenotypic and molecular data can be analyzed in a common Bayesian framework with our program iBPP, we can compare the accuracy of delimited taxa based on genetic data alone versus when integrated with phenotypic data. We can also evaluate how the integration of phenotypic data might improve species delimitation when divergence occurs with gene flow and/or is selectively driven. These two realities of the speciation process are ignored by currently available genetic approaches. Our model accommodates phenotypic characters that exhibit different degrees of divergence, allowing for both neutral traits and traits under selection. We found a greater accuracy of estimated species boundaries with the integration of phenotypic and genetic data, with a strong beneficial influence of phenotypic data from traits under selection when the speciation process involves gene flow. Our results highlight the benefits of multiple data types, but also draws into question the rationale of species delimitation based exclusively on genetic data.     

Paraphyletic species no more – genomic data resolve a Pleistocene radiation and validate morphological species of the Melanoplus scudderi complex (Insecta: Orthoptera)

Rapid speciation events, with taxa generated over a short time period, are among the most investigated biological phenomena. However, molecular systematics often reveals contradictory results compared with morphological/phenotypical diagnoses of species under scenarios of recent and rapid diversification. In this study, we used molecular data from an average of over 29 000 loci per sample from RADseq to reconstruct the diversification history and delimit the species boundary in a short-winged grasshopper species complex (Melanoplus scudderi group), where Pleistocene diversification has been hypothesized to generate more than 20 putative species with distinct male genitalic shapes. We found that, based on a maximum likelihood molecular phylogeny, each morphological species indeed forms a monophyletic group, contrary to the result from a previous mitochondrial DNA sequence study. By dating the diversification events, the species complex is estimated to have diversified during the Late Pleistocene, supporting the recent radiation hypothesis. Furthermore, coalescent-based species delimitation analyses provide quantitative support for independent genetic lineages, which corresponds to the morphologically defined species. Our results also showed that male genitalic shape may not be predicted by evolutionary distance among species, not only indicating that this trait is labile, but also implying that selection may play a role in character divergence. Additionally, our findings suggest that the rapid speciation events in this flightless grasshopper complex might be primarily associated with the fragmentation of their grassland habitats during the Late Pleistocene. Collectively, our study highlights the importance of integrating multiple sources of information to delineate species, especially for a species complex that diversified rapidly, and whose divergence may be linked to ecological processes that create geographic isolation (i.e. fragmented habitats), as well as selection acting on characters with direct consequences for reproductive isolation (i.e. genitalic divergence).     

Evaluation of a bayesian coalescent method of species delimitation

A Bayesian coalescent-based method has recently been proposed to delimit species using multilocus genetic sequence data. Posterior probabilities of different species delimitation models are calculated using reversible-jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The method accounts for species phylogenies and coalescent events in both extant and extinct species and accommodates lineage sorting and uncertainties in the gene trees. Although the method is theoretically appealing, its utility in practical data analysis is yet to be rigorously examined. In particular, the analysis may be sensitive to priors on ancestral population sizes and on species divergence times and to gene flow between species. Here we conduct a computer simulation to evaluate the statistical performance of the method, such as the false negatives (the error of lumping multiple species into one) and false positives (the error of splitting one species into several). We found that the correct species model was inferred with high posterior probability with only one or two loci when 5 or 10 sequences were sampled from each population, or with 50 loci when only one sequence was sampled. We also simulated data allowing migration under a two-species model, a mainland-island model and a stepping-stone model to assess the impact of gene flow (hybridization or introgression). The behavior of the method was diametrically different depending on the migration rate. Low rates at < 0.1 migrants per generation had virtually no effect, so that the method, while assuming no hybridization between species, identified distinct species despite small amounts of gene flow. This behavior appears to be consistent with biologists' practice. In contrast, higher migration rates at ≥ 10 migrants per generation caused the method to infer one species. At intermediate levels of migration, the method is indecisive. Our results suggest that Bayesian analysis under the multispecies coalescent model may provide important insights into population divergences, and may be useful for generating hypotheses of species delimitation, to be assessed with independent information from anatomical, behavioral, and ecological data.     

Genetic signatures of intermediate divergence: population history of Old and New World Holarctic ravens (Corvus corax)

Many studies of phylogeography, speciation, and species limits restrict their focus to a narrow issue: gene tree monophyly. However, reciprocal monophyly does not provide an ideal touchstone criterion of any aspect of evolutionary divergence. There is a continuum of divergence stages as isolated populations go from initial allele frequency differences to well-differentiated species. Studying intermediate stages of divergence will increase our understanding of geographical speciation, species limits, and conservation priorities. We develop a conceptual framework and terminology for thinking about the stages of 'intermediate polyphyly'. The Holarctic clade of common ravens (Corvus corax), found throughout much of Eurasia and North America, provides a case study of these stages of intermediate divergence. We used coalescent, phylogenetic, and population genetic methods to investigate the history and current status of this Old World-New World distribution using 107 mitochondrial control region sequences. Phylogenetically, New World and Old World samples are intermixed. However, most samples are grouped into small subclades that are restricted to either the New World or the Old World, and only one haplotype is shared between the hemispheres. Analysis of moleculalr variance (amova) results reflect this low haplotype sharing between hemispheres (Phi(ST) = 0.13, P < 0.01). Isolation with Migration (im) coalescent results suggest a sustained period of divergence between the hemispheres and low levels of maternal gene flow. Although there has not been sufficient time to evolve reciprocal monophyly and some gene flow may occur, New World and Old World ravens are genetically quite distinct. We use this example to demonstrate these early stages of divergence as populations go from sharing only internal haplotypes, to sharing no haplotypes, to having population specific subclades. Studies of phylogeography, speciation and systematics will benefit from increased attention to these stages of intermediate polyphyly.     

CALIBRATING DIVERGENCE TIMES ON SPECIES TREES VERSUS GENE TREES: IMPLICATIONS FOR SPECIATION HISTORY OF APHELOCOMA JAYS

Estimates of the timing of divergence are central to testing the underlying causes of speciation. Relaxed molecular clocks and fossil calibration have improved these estimates; however, these advances are implemented in the context of gene trees, which can overestimate divergence times. Here we couple recent innovations for dating speciation events with the analytical power of species trees, where multilocus data are considered in a coalescent context. Divergence times are estimated in the bird genus Aphelocoma to test whether speciation in these jays coincided with mountain uplift or glacial cycles. Gene trees and species trees show general agreement that diversification began in the Miocene amid mountain uplift. However, dates from the multilocus species tree are more recent, occurring predominately in the Pleistocene, consistent with theory that divergence times can be significantly overestimated with gene‐tree based approaches that do not correct for genetic divergence that predates speciation. In addition to coalescent stochasticity, Haldane's rule could account for some differences in timing estimates between mitochondrial DNA and nuclear genes. By incorporating a fossil calibration applied to the species tree, in addition to the process of gene lineage coalescence, the present approach provides a more biologically realistic framework for dating speciation events, and hence for testing the links between diversification and specific biogeographic and geologic events.     

Quantitative morphology and species delimitation under the general lineage concept: Optimization for Hedera (Araliaceae)

? Premise of the study: The use of continuous morphological characters in taxonomy is traditionally contingent on the existence of discrete diagnostic characters. When plant species are the result of recent divergence and gene flow and/or hybridization occur, the use of continuous morphological characters may help in species identification and delimitation. Between nine and 15 species have been recognized in the last treatments of Hedera. The recent divergence of the species and the involvement of allopolyploidization as the main force in this process may have greatly impeded the establishment of clear limits and contributed to multiple taxonomic proposals. ? Methods: A multivariate statistical decision-making procedure was applied to 56 quantitative morphological characters and 602 specimens to identify and delimit Hedera species under the general lineage concept. Species' exclusive genetic ancestry was evaluated with the genealogical sorting index from the Bayesian inference trees of 30 Hedera ITS sequences. ? Key results: The decision-making procedure allowed recognizing 12 species and two groups (stellate and scale-like trichome groups) in Hedera and provided statistical support for making decisions about long-standing taxonomic controversies. Common ancestry was detected for the populations of three species even in the absence of the species monophyly. ? Conclusions: Quantitative variation supports discrete variation and provides statistical support for the taxa recognized in some recent proposals of Hedera. The need of explicit analysis of quantitative data are claimed to reduce taxonomic subjectivity and ease decision-making when qualitative data fail.     

Methods for delimiting species via population genetics and phylogenetics using genotype data

In species delimitation, a formidable goal in the discipline of systematic biology, we identify and describe species morphologically and ecologically based on phenotypic data. Efficient genotyping technologies produce genetic and genomic data with relative ease, which promotes species discovery and validation using genotype data. For the last two decades, we have seen the development of species delimitation methods based on genetic distances and phylogenetic trees using genotype data. However, speciation processes via evolutionary relationship among species were mostly divorced from species delimitation. Recent approaches to drawing species boundaries use multi-locus sequence data to account for evolutionary processes including speciation and gene flow. They allow us to learn of jointly speciation and species delimitation, leveraging computational and statistical techniques developed in population genetics and phylogenetics. Here, we review the recent progress in the development of species delimitation using genotype data and discuss the future outlook for the research of developing species delimitation methods.     

Recent divergence with gene flow in Tennessee cave salamanders (Plethodontidae: Gyrinophilus) inferred from gene genealogies

Cave organisms occupy a special place in evolutionary biology because convergent morphologies of many species demonstrate repeatability in evolution even as they obscure phylogenetic relationships. The origin of specialized cave-dwelling species also raises the issue of the relative importance of isolation vs. natural selection in speciation. Two alternative hypotheses describe the origin of subterranean species. The 'climate-relict' model proposes allopatric speciation after populations of cold-adapted species become stranded in caves due to climate change. The 'adaptive-shift' model proposes parapatric speciation driven by divergent selection between subterranean and surface habitats. Our study of the Tennessee cave salamander complex shows that the three nominal forms (Gyrinophilus palleucus palleucus, G. p. necturoides, and G. gulolineatus) arose recently and are genealogically nested within the epigean (surface-dwelling) species, G. porphyriticus. Short branch lengths and discordant gene trees were consistent with a complex history involving gene flow between diverging forms. Results of coalescent-based analysis of the distribution of haplotypes among groups reject the allopatric speciation model and support continuous or recurrent genetic exchange during divergence. These results strongly favour the hypothesis that Tennessee cave salamanders originated from spring salamanders via divergence with gene flow.     

Spider: an R package for the analysis of species identity and evolution, with particular reference to DNA barcoding

Spider: SPecies IDentity and Evolution in R is a new R package implementing a number of useful analyses for DNA barcoding studies and associated research into species delimitation and speciation. Included are functions essential for generating important summary statistics from DNA barcode data, assessing specimen identification efficacy, and for testing and optimizing divergence threshold limits. In terms of investigating evolutionary and taxonomic questions, techniques for assessing diagnostic nucleotides and probability of reciprocal monophyly are also provided. Additionally, a sliding window function offers opportunities to analyse information across a gene, essential for marker design in degraded DNA studies. Spider capitalizes on R's extensible ethos and offers an integrated platform ideal for the analysis of both nucleotide and morphological data. The program can be obtained from the comprehensive R archive network (CRAN, http://cran.r-project.org) and from the R-Forge package development site (http://spider.r-forge.r-project.org/).     

Speciation along a latitudinal gradient: The origin of the Neotropical cycad sister pair Dioon sonorense–D. vovidesii (Zamiaceae)

Latitude is correlated with environmental components that determine the distribution of biodiversity. In combination with geographic factors, latitude‐associated environmental variables are expected to influence speciation, but empirical evidence on how those factors interplay is scarce. We evaluated the genetic and environmental variation among populations in the pair of sister species Dioon sonorense–D. vovidesii, two cycads distributed along a latitudinal environmental gradient in northwestern Mexico, to reveal their demographic histories and the environmental factors involved in their divergence. Using genome‐wide loci data, we determined the species delimitation, estimated the gene flow, and compared multiple demographic scenarios of divergence. Also, we estimated the variation of climatic variables among populations and used ecological niche models to test niche overlap between species. The effect of geographic and environmental variables on the genetic variation among populations was evaluated using linear models. Our results suggest the existence of a widespread ancestral population that split into the two species ~829 ky ago. The geographic delimitation along the environmental gradient occurs in the absence of major geographic barriers, near the 28th parallel north, where a zonation of environmental seasonality exists. The northern species, D. vovidesii, occurs in more seasonal environments but retains the same niche of the southern species, D. sonorense. The genetic variation throughout populations cannot be solely explained by stochastic processes; the latitudinal‐associated seasonality has been an additive factor that strengthened the species divergence. This study represents an example of how speciation can be achieved by the effect of the latitude‐associated factors on the genetic divergence among populations.     

Species detection and individual assignment in species delimitation: can integrative data increase efficacy?

Statistical species delimitation usually relies on singular data, primarily genetic, for detecting putative species and individual assignment to putative species. Given the variety of speciation mechanisms, singular data may not adequately represent the genetic, morphological and ecological diversity relevant to species delimitation. We describe a methodological framework combining multivariate and clustering techniques that uses genetic, morphological and ecological data to detect and assign individuals to putative species. Our approach recovers a similar number of species recognized using traditional, qualitative taxonomic approaches that are not detected when using purely genetic methods. Furthermore, our approach detects groupings that traditional, qualitative taxonomic approaches do not. This empirical test suggests that our approach to detecting and assigning individuals to putative species could be useful in species delimitation despite varying levels of differentiation across genetic, phenotypic and ecological axes. This work highlights a critical, and often overlooked, aspect of the process of statistical species delimitation—species detection and individual assignment. Irrespective of the species delimitation approach used, all downstream processing relies on how individuals are initially assigned, and the practices and statistical issues surrounding individual assignment warrant careful consideration.     

Nuclear locus divergence at the early stages of speciation in the Orchard Oriole complex

As two lineages diverge from one another, mitochondrial DNA should evolve fixed differences more rapidly than nuclear DNA due to its smaller effective population size and faster mutation rate. As a consequence, molecular systematists have focused on the criteria of reciprocal monophyly in mitochondrial DNA for delimiting species boundaries. However, mitochondrial gene trees do not necessarily reflect the evolutionary history of the taxa in question, and even mitochondrial loci are not expected to be reciprocally monophyletic when the speciation event happened very recently. The goal of this study was to examine mitochondrial paraphyly within the Orchard Oriole complex, which is composed of Icterus spurius (Orchard Oriole) and Icterus fuertesi (Fuertes' Oriole). We increased the geographic sampling, added four nuclear loci, and used a range of population genetic and coalescent methods to examine the divergence between the taxa. With increased taxon sampling, we found evidence of clear structure between the taxa for mitochondrial DNA. However, nuclear loci showed little evidence of population structure, indicating a very recent divergence between I. spurius and I. fuertesi. Another goal was to examine the genetic variation within each taxon to look for evidence of a past founder event within the I. fuertesi lineage. Based on the high amounts of genetic variation for all nuclear loci, we found no evidence of such an event – thus, we found no support for the possible founding of I. fuertesi through a change in migratory behavior, followed by peripheral isolates speciation. Our results demonstrate that these two taxa are in the earliest stages of speciation, at a point when they have fixed differences in plumage color that are not reflected in monophyly of the mitochondrial or nuclear DNA markers in this study. This very recent divergence makes them ideal for continued studies of species boundaries and the earliest stages of speciation.     

Sorting through the chaff, nDNA gene trees for phylogenetic inference and hybrid identification of annual sunflowers (Helianthus sect. Helianthus)

The annual sunflowers (Helianthus sect. Helianthus) present a formidable challenge for phylogenetic inference because of ancient hybrid speciation, recent introgression, and suspected issues with deep coalescence. Here we analyze sequence data from 11 nuclear DNA (nDNA) genes for multiple genotypes of species within the section to (1) reconstruct the phylogeny of this group, (2) explore the utility of nDNA gene trees for detecting hybrid speciation and introgression; and (3) test an empirical method of hybrid identification based on the phylogenetic congruence of nDNA gene trees from tightly linked genes. We uncovered considerable topological heterogeneity among gene trees with or without three previously identified hybrid species included in the analyses, as well as a general lack of reciprocal monophyly of species. Nonetheless, partitioned Bayesian analyses provided strong support for the reciprocal monophyly of all species except H. annuus (0.89 PP), the most widespread and abundant annual sunflower. Previous hypotheses of relationships among taxa were generally strongly supported (1.0 PP), except among taxa typically associated with H. annuus, apparently due to the paraphyly of the latter in all gene trees. While the individual nDNA gene trees provided a useful means for detecting recent hybridization, identification of ancient hybridization was problematic for all ancient hybrid species, even when linkage was considered. We discuss biological factors that affect the efficacy of phylogenetic methods for hybrid identification.     

A MULTILOCUS TEST OF SIMULTANEOUS DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF PANAMA USING SNAPPING SHRIMP IN THE GENUS ALPHEUS

The completion of the Panamanian Isthmus is one of the greatest natural experiments in evolution, sending multiple species pairs from a broad range of taxonomic groups on independent evolutionary trajectories. The resulting transisthmian sister species have been used as model systems for examining consequences that accompany cessation of gene flow in formerly panmictic populations. However, variance in pairwise genetic distances of these "geminates" often exceeds expectations, seemingly conflicting with the assumption that separation of populations was contemporaneous with the final closure of the Isthmus. Multilocus datasets and coalescent-based analytical methods can be used to estimate divergence times while accounting for variance in gene divergence that predates isolation, thus removing the need to invoke unequal divergence times. Here we present results from Bayesian analyses of sequence data from seven nuclear and one mitochondrial marker in eight transisthmian species pairs in the snapping shrimp genus Alpheus . Divergence times in two species pairs were shown to occur much earlier than the Isthmus final closure, but much of the variance in pairwise genetic distances from cytochrome oxidase I (COI) was explained when ancestral polymorphisms were accounted for. Results illustrate how coalescent approaches may be more appropriate for dating recent divergences than for estimating ancient speciation events.     

Considering gene flow when using coalescent methods to delimit lineages of North American pitvipers of the genus Agkistrodon

Examining species diversity and mechanisms of speciation using coalescent models provides a framework for how regional diversity is accrued, even in well‐studied areas such as the Nearctic. It is likely, that gene flow among closely‐related species with adjacent distributions may be common. However, the absence of gene flow is a primary assumption of many phylogeographical methods that produce species trees and delimit species using Bayesian or likelihood functions in a coalescent framework. In the present study, we examine delimitation when gene flow between species is present using empirical datasets from two species of North American pitvipers of the genus Agkistrodon. We also use niche modelling to determine whether these young lineages occur in distinct environmental niches. To manage the problem of gene flow between species, we first identify admixed individuals, demonstrate that gene flow has occurred, and then identify the impact of alternative population assignments of admixed individuals on delimitation posterior probabilities. In addition, we examine the influence of mitochondrial genes relative to other loci combined in coalescent analyses that delimit species. Here, we find that the copperheads (Agkistrodon contortrix) and the cottonmouths (Agkistrodon piscivorus) are each composed of two distinct species, with each occupying different niches. Importantly, we find that species can be delimited when the amount of gene flow between lineages is low, although the methods are acutely sensitive to population assignment of individuals. © 2014 The Linnean Society of London     

Species delimitation with abc and other coalescent-based methods: a test of accuracy with simulations and an empirical example with lizards of the liolaemus darwinii complex (squamata: liolaemidae)

Species delimitation is a major research focus in evolutionary biology because accurate species boundaries are a prerequisite for the study of speciation. New species delimitation methods (SDMs) can accommodate nonmonophyletic species and gene tree discordance as a result of incomplete lineage sorting via the coalescent model, but do not explicitly accommodate gene flow after divergence. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) can incorporate gene flow and estimate other relevant parameters of the speciation process while testing alternative species delimitation hypotheses. We evaluated the accuracy of BPP, SpeDeSTEM, and ABC for delimiting species using simulated data and applied these methods to empirical data from lizards of the Liolaemus darwinii complex. Overall, BPP was the most accurate, ABC showed an intermediate accuracy, and SpeDeSTEM was the least accurate under most simulated conditions. All three SDMs showed lower accuracy when speciation occurred despite gene flow, as found in previous studies, but ABC was the method with the smallest decrease in accuracy. All three SDMs consistently supported the distinctness of southern and northern lineages within L. darwinii. These SDMs based on genetic data should be complemented with novel SDMs based on morphological and ecological data to achieve truly integrative and statistically robust approaches to species discovery.