内蒙古达赉湖地区赤狐生境选择及生境景观特征分析

近年来,干旱、鼠害及人为对草原的过度开发利用等对达赉湖地区赤狐的数量及分布范围造成了很大影响。借助于主成分分析、Bailey’s判别分析、遥感和地理信息系统对达赉湖自然保护区赤狐的生境选择及生境的景观特征进行了研究。在赤狐家域内采用样线法和样方法,共设置10 m×10 m样方245个(实验样方101个,对照样方144个),并测定样方内的7个生境因子:植被类型、隐蔽级、食物丰富度、雪深、距水源距离、距围栏距离、距居民点距离。对样方内数据进行主成分分析得出,食物和隐蔽性是赤狐生境选择的主要因子,距居民点距离和距围栏距离是赤狐生境选择的次要因子,雪深和距水源距离是赤狐在生境选择中未表现出选择和利用的因子。利用Bailey’s方法和基于赤狐的生境分布图的景观统计得出:赤狐偏好选择柳灌丛和芦苇塘两种生境,这两种生境的总面积约为1093.47 km2,占研究区总面积的14.05%;赤狐随机利用河道、典型草原和草甸草原3种生境类型,这3种生境的总面积约为4721.79 km2,占研究区总面积的60.67%。;回避的生境为冰面和沙化草地,总面积约为1968.09 km2,占研究区总面积的25.29%。基于地理信息系统和Fragstats的景观特征分析得出,赤狐最适宜生境的面积最少,斑块数量最多,平均斑块面积最小,平均形状指数最小,平均斑块距离最大;其次是较适宜生境和不适宜生境;一般适宜生境的面积最多,斑块数量最少,平均斑块面积和平均形状指数最大,平均斑块距离最小。赤狐多分布于斑块较大的适宜其生存的生境或分布于由这些斑块形成的生境斑块镶嵌体中。     

天津市蔬菜价格的周期性波动特征分析及短期预测

利用H-P滤波分析法和X12季节分析法,对2000年1月—2014年12月期间的天津市蔬菜平均批发价格序列进行分析,结果表明：蔬菜价格交替波动,具有明显的规律性;以月为单位,可以将蔬菜价格波动划分为9个周期,2010—2014年来蔬菜价格波动周期有逐期缩短的趋势。根据季节调整的结果,对2015年蔬菜价格走势进行预测,预测的结果较为理想。     

河北省大豆地方品种遗传基础

以50份河北省大豆地方品种为材料,通过两年对12个农艺性状鉴定和30个SSR位点的分析,结果表明,地方品种农艺性状平均多样性指数为0．83,数量性状平均变异系数为20．15％,30个SSR位点平均等位变异数5．03,平均多样性指数为0．61,参试材料遗传距离平均0．869。利用Bayesian模型将参试材料分为4组。分析结果表明,河北省地方品种的遗传多样性与地理来源或不同熟期类型间没有显著相关。     

三种犬科动物春季洞穴特征

2004年4月-2005年6月在内蒙古达赉湖国家级自然保护区对20个狼穴、27个赤狐洞穴、33个沙狐洞穴进行测量调查,结果如下：3种犬科动物洞穴的洞口朝向无显著差异,赤狐和沙狐洞穴在洞口倾角、洞口直径、第一洞道长度3个特征上无显著差异,洞口直径可作为判别狼穴与其它两者洞穴的依据。影响狼春季洞穴选择的前3位主要因子是隐蔽、人为干扰和水源。影响赤狐春季洞穴选择的前3位主要因子是地形、水源、和人为干扰。影响沙狐春季洞穴选择的前3位主要因子是微气候、人为干扰和食物。通过对3种犬科动物春季洞穴生境选择的比较发现：3种动物洞穴都有远离人为干扰,提高隐蔽性的趋势;不同的是赤狐和狼的洞址都靠近水源,沙狐洞址则远离水源;3种动物在地形及坡位选择上也存在差异,赤狐和狼的洞穴多位于平地。而沙狐洞穴多位于坡地的坡顶,且洞穴周围啮齿类数量显著大于赤狐洞穴和狼穴。柳灌丛、干旱苇塘、高草坡地分别是赤狐、狼、沙狐偏爱的生境类型。3种犬科动物中洞穴生态位宽度最大的是狼（0．5051）,其次为赤狐（0．4292）,最小为沙狐（0．2591）。其中狼与赤狐洞穴空间生态位重叠指数较高,达到了0．4692,沙狐与赤狐洞穴空间生态位重叠指数最低,只有0．2356。     

赤狐的活动节律与产仔洞穴的选择

本文对赤狐的产仔洞穴、活动节律和巢区大小进行了研究,赤狐产仔洞穴全部为喜马拉雅旱獭的居住洞,一般洞口数较多（平均４．８个）,分布于高寒灌丛,距干扰因素较远,常位于坡中部。影响其选择的主要因素是隐蔽性和安全性,赤狐的产仔洞穴相对稳定,平均利用时间为３．３年,利用时间与长短与环境条件的稳定性有关,赤狐通常在夜间活动,主要是觅食,而白天有时成体携幼体在洞穴附近进行短时间的非觅食活动,活动的高峰期为１８０     

甘肃省陇东地区近55年风速时空变化特征

基于陇东地区3个国家气象站点(环县、崆峒、西峰)1960—2014年逐月平均风速、日最大风速、平均气温等数据,运用相关分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验以及小波分析等方法对陇东地区近55年风速时空变化特征及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:1960—2014年陇东地区的年平均风速呈下降趋势,其变化倾向率为-0.09 m·s-1·10 a-1,其中1973—1984年平均风速在波动中呈快速减少趋势,而1995年之后进入平稳波动期,1960s的平均风速最大,1980s的平均风速最小;日最大风速和4级以上风速出现频次的快速减少对年平均风速的变化影响显著;四季平均风速均呈下降趋势,春冬两季的下降趋势最为显著,春季风速的波动趋势对其他3个季节风速的波动变化具有一定的预示性;平均风速最大的春季和平均风速最小的秋季与年平均风速波动变化的相关程度最为显著;3个站点年平均风速均呈减少趋势,其减少速度沿环县-西峰-崆峒的方向递减,各站点四季平均风速变化具有相同的规律;陇东地区年平均风速存在26年的第一主周期,并于1973年左右发生突变,其中,环县站发生突变的时间最早,崆峒站突变时间最晚;陇东地区年平均风速与年平均气温呈显著负相关,增温速度最快的春季和冬季,其风速的减小速度也是四季中最大的。     

河北省野生大豆种群若干数量性状结构特征

 分析了我国河北省野生大豆天然种群几个重要数量性状的群体结构特征及其地理生态分布。结果显示：平均种群内变异系数大小顺序依次为：百粒重(46％)>脂肪含量(17％)>开花期(10.3％)>蛋白质含量(4.7％)。种群平均开花期与纬度有相关性,而百粒重、脂肪和蛋白质含量分布与纬度没有相关,与种群的生态和遗传背景有关。种群内每个数量性状分布都存在一个优势区段。种群内数量性状存在因基因频率积累程度的不同而导致表型差异较大的遗传型个体。虽然同一个居群长期受到相同光周期诱导,但是种群不是有单一相近的开花期,存在着开花光周期反应不同的基因型。地理种群结构相似性分析表明：河北省天然野生大豆种群结构相似性与地理生态有密切相关性,存在地理生态群。     

河北省大豆地方品种遗传基础

以50份河北省大豆地方品种为材料,通过两年对12个农艺性状鉴定和30个SSR位点的分析,结果表明,地方品种农艺性状平均多样性指数PIC为0.83,数量性状平均变异系数为20.15%,30个SSR位点平均等位变异数5.03,平均多样性指数PIC为0.61,参试材料遗传距离平均0.869。利用Bayesian模型将参试材料分为4组。分析结果表明,河北省地方品种的遗传多样性与地理来源或不同熟期类型间没有显著相关。     

POPULATION QUANTITATIVE CHARACTERISTICS AND DYNAMICS OF RARE AND ENDANGERED TSUGA TCHEKIANGENSIS IN JIULONGSHAN NATURE RESERVE OF CHINA

 针对九龙山国家级自然保护区南方铁杉(Tsuga tchekiangensis)种群的分布特点, 设置了10个具有代表性的样地。以种群生命表及生存分析理论为基础, 编制了南方铁杉种群的静态生命表, 绘制了存活曲线、死亡率曲线、消失率曲线、生存率曲线、累计死亡率曲线、种群死亡密度曲线和危险率曲线, 分析了种群数量特征; 同时结合谱分析方法, 分析了南方铁杉种群数量的动态变化。结果表明: 1) 南方铁杉种群结构存在波动性, 幼年阶段的个体较丰富, 成年个体数量相对较少, 种群趋于Deevey Ⅱ型。2) 南方铁杉种群死亡率和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致, 均出现两个高峰, 一个出现在第5龄级阶段, 另一个出现在第15龄级阶段。3) 南方铁杉种群的生存率单调下降, 累计死亡率单调上升, 生存率下降趋势前期高于后期, 累计死亡率则相反。4) 4个生存函数曲线表明, 南方铁杉具有前期稳定、中期锐减和后期衰退的特点。5) 种群动态的谱分析显示, 南方铁杉种群动态除受基波影响外, 还存在着明显的小周期波动, 谐波A3处周期的波动与南方铁杉的高生长有关; A6处周期的波动与外界环境变化有关; A8处周期的波动与南方铁杉进入生理衰退期有关。     

格氏栲种群数量动态的谱分析研究

运用谱分析数学方法,研究分析格氏栲林格氏栲种群动态规律．结果表明：格氏栲种群数量动态的周期波动性是明显的,与格氏栲天然更新过程有关;不同生境、人为干扰均对辂氏栲种群数量动态的波动产生影响;格氏栲生长量的周期波动与其种群数量动态的周期波动特征基本一致,表明格氏栲种群数量动态呈周期波浪式发展,即表征格氏栲林优势种群的稳定性。     

Long-term changes in intertidal flat macrozoobenthos as an indicator of stress by organic pollution

Organic waste-water from beetsugar factories is being discharged by pipeline into the eastern part of the Dutch Wadden Sea since 1969 mainly in September–December. The organic waste load was high in the first four years and diminished considerably from 1974 onwards.From 1968 macrobenthos has been monitored at five permanent stations. Two of these stations were situated relatively close to the outfall of the pipe-line.Data on numerical density of seven macrobenthic species were analysed for synchrony of yearly fluctuations in order to discriminate between pollution-induced changes in population densities and changes due to variation of natural environmental factors.A great deal of concordance in density fluctuations was found between the five stations. Comparison with data from the western part of the Dutch Wadden Sea (150 km apart) revealed a relative good concordance of the density fluctuations in eastern (only 3 stations) and western Wadden Sea. The two stations close to the outfall showed an aberrant pattern of density variations due to the waste discharge.     

Do yearly temperature cycles reduce species richness? Insights from calanoid copepods

The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) has explained the taxonomic richness of ectothermic species as an inverse function of habitat mean temperature. Extending this theory, we show that yearly temperature cycles reduce metabolic rates of taxa having short generation times. This reduction is due to Jensen’s inequality, which results from a nonlinear dependency of metabolic rate of organisms on temperature. It leads to a prediction that relatively lower species richness is found in habitats with larger amplitudes of yearly temperature cycles where mean temperatures and other conditions are similar. We show that metabolically driven generation time of a taxon also relates functionally to species richness, and similarly, its yearly cycles reduce richness. We test these hypotheses on marine calanoid copepods with 46,377 records of data collected by scientific cruise surveys in Mediterranean regions, across which the temperature amplitudes vary dramatically. We test both bio-energetic and phenomenological effects of temperature cycles on richness in 86 1° × 1° latitudinal and longitudinal spatial units. The models incorporated the effect of both periodic fluctuations and mean temperature explained 21.6% more variation in the data, with lower AIC, compared to models incorporated only the mean temperature. The study also gives insight into the basis of energetic-equivalence rule in MTE determining richness, which can be governed by generation time of taxon. The results of this study lead to the proposition that amplitude of yearly temperature cycles may contribute to both the longitudinal and the latitudinal differences in species richness and show how the metabolic theory can explain macro-ecological patterns arising from yearly temperature cycles.     

Population cycles and kin selection in Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus

Populations of Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus often show cyclic fluctuations in numbers. There is good evidence from previous work that, each year, densities are limited by the territorial behaviour of cocks. Therefore, changes in territorial behaviour and associated territory size might cause changes in density from one year to the next. Demographic measurements and a population experiment were consistent with a model which explained cycles as a consequence of changes in behaviour resulting from kin selection: differential behaviour between kin and non-kin. The demographic measurements presented here covered 16 years and two cyclic-type fluctuations, and the experiment lasted 10 years. Long-term studies are essential if lengthy processes are to be understood reliably.     

Seasonality and variability of the interestrous interval in the bitch

Records from two breeding colonies (A and B) located near each other were analyzed for this experiment. Colony A consisted of 19 bitches (8 Maltese, 5 Yorkshire, 3 Lhasa Apso, and 3 Bouvier des Flandres), while Colony B consisted of 48 Beagle bitches. A total of 126 interestrous intervals (141 estrous cycles) from Colony A were reviewed to quantitate the variability of the interestrous interval. Analysis of variance showed that the degree of variation of the estrous cycle length within bitches (65%) was about twice the degree of variation of means of the estrous cycle length among bitches (35%). It was found that the estrous cycle length is extremely variable, and it cannot be used to predict the next estrus in a single bitch, although some bitches were very consistent. The seasonal and monthly distribution of estrous cycles throughout the year was also analyzed from bitches kept in Colonies A and B for a total of 210 estrous cycles. The data were collected over a four-year period. A seasonal pattern was observed when the cumulative distributions over years were analyzed. A higher frequency of estrous cycles was observed during winter and summer. This seasonality pattern was not observed when individual years were analyzed separately. However, the overall probability that an estrus would occur at any month of the year was the same for each month (1 12 ) when cumulative distribution over years were analyzed.     

Effects of vole fluctuations on the population dynamics of the barn owl <Emphasis Type="Italic">Tyto alba</Emphasis>

Many predator species feed on prey that fluctuates in abundance from year to year. Birds of prey can face large fluctuations in food abundance i.e. small mammals, especially voles. These annual changes in prey abundance strongly affect the reproductive success and mortality of the individual predators and thus can be expected to influence their population dynamics and persistence. The barn owl, for example, shows large fluctuations in breeding success that correlate with the dynamics in voles, their main prey species. Analysis of the impact of fluctuations in vole abundance (their amplitude, peaks and lows, cycle length and regularity) with a simple predator prey model parameterized with literature data indicates population persistence is especially affected by years with low vole abundance. In these years the population can decline to low owl numbers such that the ensuing peak vole years cannot be exploited. This result is independent of the length and regularity of vole fluctuations. The relevance of this result for conservation of the barn owl and other birds of prey that show a numerical response to fluctuating prey species is discussed.     

Male territorial aggression and androgen modulation in high latitude populations of the Sooty, Passerella iliaca sinuosa, and Red Fox Sparrow, Passerella iliaca zaboria

The Fox Sparrows, Passerella iliaca, include multiple groups and subspecies distributed at several latitudes from the Alaskan arctic to the southwestern United States. As such, this species represents a potential model for investigating latitudinal variation in androgen secretion and aggressive territoriality in male passerines. Breeding male Fox Sparrows from two subspecies within two groups, the Sooty Fox Sparrow, P. i. sinuosa, and the Red Fox Sparrow, P. i. zaboria, were assessed for aggressive territoriality and androgen responsiveness at multiple latitudes in arctic and subarctic Alaska. Subarctic Sooty Fox Sparrows had higher circulating androgen levels in the early (8.54 ng/ml) versus mid–late breeding season (2.44 ng/ml). Males in the mid–late breeding season did not up-regulate androgen secretion in response to social challenge, but were aggressive and spent more time within 5 m of a decoy during a simulated territorial intrusion (STI) than early breeding males. Male subarctic Red Fox Sparrows had slightly higher circulating androgen levels (2.29 ng/ml) than arctic males (1.10 ng/ml) in the mid–late breeding season. However, androgen levels were not correlated with blood collection time after a social challenge in either group, suggesting that neither arctic nor subarctic males up-regulate androgen secretion during the mid–late breeding period. Arctic males spent more time within 5 m of a decoy and sang less than subarctic males during an STI in the mid–late breeding season. These findings demonstrate that the Fox Sparrow is a tractable model for investigating the latitudinal regulation of aggressive territoriality and androgen responsiveness in passerines.     

Variations of the chromosome number in the red fox (Vulpes vulpes)

The chromosome number in peripheral blood cells of five individuals of Vulpes vulpes (Red Fox) is shown to vary between 35 and 39. This variation is due to loss or gain of the smallest autosome, which it is suggested is heterochromatic and does not have any major influence on the phenotype. This species demonstrates variation in chromosome number both between and within individuals.     

Reproducible and Predictable Yearly Pattern in the Incidence of Uterine Cervical Cancer

A yearly pattern in the occurrence of uterine cervical cancer (UCC), obtained from cytological examinations reported as type V (cases concluding a malignant alteration), has been previously shown for data obtained in the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (state of Nuevo Leon, Mexico) for a span of 10 years (1978-1987), with a peak of relative incidence in the month of February being highly stable for consecutive years. With the aim of extending and validating those results, we analyzed the monthly totals of positive detected cases of UCC in the states of Nuevo Leon, Chihuahua, Coahuila, and Tamaulipas (covering most of Northern Mexico) during the same period. To eliminate bias due to the seasonal variation in the number of screening smears, data were first expressed in relation to the number of cytological examinations done the same month. The least-squares fit of a 1 -year cosine curve to the data of relative incidence in the four states reveals a statistically significant yearly pattern (p = .008), with a maximum of relative incidence in February almost double that during the rest of the year. Results indicate that the relative incidence of UCC is higher than the yearly average during the winter, with secondary peaks in May and October. In view of the nonsi-nusoidal waveform in the incidence of UCC, we undertook a multiple-component analysis, allowing several cosine functions to be simultaneously fitted to the data. Results indicate that the yearly pattern in the relative incidence of UCC can be represented by a model that includes two components with periods of 12 and 4 months (p = .004). The same model can be documented as statistically significant independently for each of the four states. These results, summarizing over 2200 positive cases of UCC detected in more than 1,100,000 screening smears, are in full agreement with those found previously for part of the state of Nuevo Leon and reveal a highly stable and predictable yearly pattern of variation in the relative incidence of UCC in Northern Mexico. (Chronobiology International, 13(4), 305-316, 1996)     

Synchronous and nonsynchronous population fluctuations of some predators and their prey in central Sweden

To test the alternative prey hypothesis (APH), we examined 29-yr time series of bank voles (indexed by snap-trapping) and 6 game species (indexed by bag records) from Gavleborg county, central Sweden, for the occurrence of synchronous population fluctuations Only voles and the 3 grouse species exhibited cyclic fluctuations, grouse fluctuations were highly synchronous, and positively correlated with vole fluctuations Although hares were positively correlated with grouse, they were negatively correlated with voles Fox were positively correlated with voles and grouse, however, a strong negative relationship was observed between fox and hares During a sharp decline in fox numbers during the early 1980's due to sarcoptic mange, both grouse and hares exhibited a strong positive numerical response, but, not in synchrony In addition, grouse exhibited large fluctuations during the fox decrease whereas hares did not Due to the contradictory predator-prey interactions observed, these results provide only partial support for APH     

A preliminary survey for changes in urban Fox (Vulpes vulpes) densities in England and Wales, and implications for rabies control

A questionnaire was sent to 139 councils and 44 local mammal groups in England and Wales, requesting data on changes in urban Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) densities between 1987 and 1997. Of 152 responses, 41% believed Fox numbers had increased, 42% believed Fox numbers were unchanged and 7% believed Fox numbers had decreased. Most of the increases were perceived to be due to increased food availability, and decreases due to sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei). In the event of a rabies outbreak in Britain, the models used to determine control strategies are dependent on having sufficiently up‐to‐date urban Fox density data. This survey suggests that urban Fox density data for Britain should be updated in the near future.