A global approach for sparse representation of uncertainty in Life Cycle Assessments of waste management systems

Purpose

Identification of key inputs and their effect on results from Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) models is fundamental. Because parameter importance varies greatly between cases due to the interaction of sensitivity and uncertainty, these features should never be defined a priori. However, exhaustive parametrical uncertainty analyses may potentially be complicated and demanding, both with analytical and sampling methods. Therefore, we propose a systematic method for selection of critical parameters based on a simplified analytical formulation that unifies the concepts of sensitivity and uncertainty in a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) framework.

Methods

The proposed analytical method based on the calculation of sensitivity coefficients (SC) is evaluated against Monte Carlo sampling on traditional uncertainty assessment procedures, both for individual parameters and for full parameter sets. Three full-scale waste management scenarios are modelled with the dedicated waste LCA model EASETECH and a full range of ILCD recommended impact categories. Common uncertainty ranges of 10 % are used for all parameters, which we assume to be normally distributed. The applicability of the concepts of additivity of variances and GSA is tested on results from both uncertainty propagation methods. Then, we examine the differences in discernibility analyses results carried out with varying numbers of sampling points and parameters.

Results and discussion

The proposed analytical method complies with the Monte Carlo results for all scenarios and impact categories, but offers substantially simpler mathematical formulation and shorter computation times. The coefficients of variation obtained with the analytical method and Monte Carlo differ only by 1 %, indicating that the analytical method provides a reliable representation of uncertainties and allows determination of whether a discernibility analysis is required. The additivity of variances and the GSA approach show that the uncertainty in results is determined by a limited set of important parameters. The results of the discernibility analysis based on these critical parameters vary only by 1 % from discernibility analyses based on the full set, but require significantly fewer Monte Carlo runs.

Conclusions

The proposed method and GSA framework provide a fast and valuable approximation for uncertainty quantification. Uncertainty can be represented sparsely by contextually identifying important parameters in a systematic manner. The proposed method integrates with existing step-wise approaches for uncertainty analysis by introducing a global importance analysis before uncertainty propagation.

     

Life Cycle Assessment of ICT

The use of information and communication technology (ICT) is growing throughout society, and new products and solutions are developed at an increasing rate. To enable environmental assessment of specific ICT products and other products that rely on ICT in some way, a more complete, detailed, and up‐to‐date study based on real measurements is needed. To date, similar studies have not been readily available or fully comprehensive. This study assessed the overall operational electricity use and life‐cycle–based carbon footprint (CF) relating to ICT in Sweden, including activities not commonly addressed previously, such as shared data transport networks and data centers and manufacturing of network infrastructure. Specific, detailed inventory data are presented and used for assessment of the Internet Protocol core network, data transmission, operator activities, and access network. These specific data, in combination with secondary, more generic data for end‐user equipment, allow a comprehensive overall assessment. The majority of the ICT network CF is the result of end‐user equipment, mainly personal computers, followed by third‐party enterprise networks and data centers and then access networks. The parts closest to the user proved to be clearly responsible for the majority of the impact. The results are presented for Swedish ICT networks and for ICT networks in general based on a global average electricity mix.     

Scaling Relationships in Life Cycle Assessment

Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies include a vast amount of different products. Often, extrapolations are necessary to obtain the life cycle inventory of a specific product. This article provides quantitative scaling factors with power (heat output) for product properties and life cycle impact assessment results of heat pump and biomass furnace technologies. Included in the study are 508 heat pumps and furnaces with differences in power over three orders of magnitude per product group. The key properties of the heat pump system were defined as mass, refrigerant use, and coefficient of performance. For the biomass furnaces, the key properties analyzed were mass, electrical input, and efficiency. The results indicated that both the mass and the refrigerant use increased subproportionally to power. For coefficient of performance and furnace efficiency, no scaling effect was found. Subproportional growth was found between two environmental impacts (global warming and ozone depletion) and power for the production phase. This scaling behavior was similar to conventional cost scaling. The results of our study imply that in LCA, scaling factors can be applied to estimate key properties and corresponding life cycle impact assessment results. This is particularly useful for prospective technology assessments with limited data available.     

Economic Allocation in Life Cycle Assessment

This article examines methods for analyzing allocation in life cycle assessment (LCA); it focuses on comparisons of economic allocation with other feasible alternatives. The International Organization for Standardization's (ISO) guideline 14044 indicates that economic allocation should only be used as a last resort, when other methods are not suitable. However, the LCA literature reports several examples of the use of economic allocation. This is due partly to its simplicity and partly to its ability to illustrate the properties of complex systems. Sometimes a price summarizes complex attributes of product or service quality that cannot be easily measured by physical criteria. On the other hand, economic allocation does have limitations arising, for example, from the variability of prices and the low correlation between prices and physical flows. This article presents the state of the debate on the topic and some hypothetical examples for illustration. A general conclusion is that it is not possible to determine one “best” allocation method. The allocation procedure has to be selected on a case‐by‐case basis and no single approach is suitable for every situation. Despite its limitations, economic allocation has certain qualities that make it flexible and potentially suitable for different contexts. In some situations, economic allocation should not be the last methodological resort. The option of economic allocation should be considered, for example, whenever the prices of coproducts and coservices differ widely.     

Analyzing the Practice of Life Cycle Assessment

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a quantitative tool used to evaluate the environmental impacts of products or processes. With respect to buildings, LCA can be used to evaluate the environmental impacts of an entire building's life cycle. Currently LCA in the building area is used in a limited capacity, primarily to select building products. In order to determine the causality for the lack of whole‐building LCAs, focus groups with members of the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) communities were held. This article investigates the current level of knowledge of LCA in the AEC community and then discusses the benefits and barriers to the practice of LCA. In summary, the goal of the research was to identify why LCA is not used to its fullest potential in a whole‐building LCA. In an open forum and moderated setting, focus group participants were asked individually to self‐identify their experience with LCA, a brief education session on LCA was held, and then benefits and barriers to LCA were discussed. The focus group sessions were transcribed and systematically coded by social researchers in order to analyze the results. Hybrid flow and radar charts were developed. From the focus group results, the most important benefit to LCA was “provides information about environmental impacts.” The results did not identify a prominent barrier; however, building‐related metrics were ascertained to be one of the more crucial barriers. The benefits and barriers classified by this analysis will be utilized to develop a subsequent online survey to further understand the LCA and AEC community.     

Effect factors of terrestrial acidification in Brazil for use in Life Cycle Impact Assessment

Purpose

In Life Cycle Impact Assessment, atmospheric fate factors, soil exposure factors, and effect factors are combined to characterize potential impacts of acidifying substances in terrestrial environments. Due to the low availability of global data sets, effect factors (EFs) have been reported as the major contributors to statistical uncertainties of characterization factors and they are the focus of this study. We aim to develop spatially differentiated EFs taking Brazil as case and explore new methodological ways to derive them.

Methods

EFs are calculated based on a comprehensive database reporting observations of approximately 30,000 plant species at biome and ecoregion levels. Species richness distributions as function of soil pH are developed and translated into potentially not occurring fraction (PNOF) of species, which can be equated to the more commonly used potentially disappeared fraction of species, to assess effects of changes in soil hydrogen ion concentration on terrestrial plant species. Potentially extinct fraction (PXF) of species is proposed as a complementary metric for LCIA models based on distributions of range-restricted species (species only occurring in one ecoregion of Brazil). Different approaches for determining EFs from the species richness distributions are evaluated. Area-weighted EFs are explored to determine potential effects when considering both acid and alkaline sides of species richness curves, thus integrating potentially positive effects of acidification on biodiversity.

Results and discussion

Spatially differentiated EFs are provided for 6 biomes and 45 ecoregions composing Brazil. Comparisons with previous EFs demonstrate that data availability might significantly influence regression analyses, and the use of more representative data can lead to more consistent EFs. Moreover, consideration of the entire species richness curves yields positive and negative EFs. Adding acidifying substances onto specific soils in Brazilian ecoregions may therefore be associated with increased species richness if the pH approaches the optimum pH from the alkaline side of the curve. The meaningfulness of species richness as indicator of acidification stress is discussed based on this finding, as is the inclusion of the metric PXF, highlighting species whose loss could cause irreversible damages to the environment.

Conclusions

We recommend the calculation of area-weighted EFs to be integrated into characterization models for terrestrial acidification, and we therefore advocate that similar work be done for other regions in the world than Brazil to enhance the consistency of the EFs and reduce their uncertainties. We additionally recommend that LCIA method developers further explore the application of PXF for other impact categories than acidification.

     

Life Cycle Assessment Software: Selection Can Impact Results

When software is used to facilitate life cycle assessments (LCAs), the implicit assumption is that the results obtained are not a function of the choice of software used. LCAs were done in both SimaPro and GaBi for simplified systems of creation and disposal of 1 kilogram each of four basic materials (aluminum, corrugated board, glass, and polyethylene terephthalate) to determine whether there were significant differences in the results. Data files and impact assessment methodologies (Impact 2002, ReCiPe, and TRACI 2) were ostensibly identical (although there were minor variations in the available ReCiPe version between the programs that were investigated). Differences in reported impacts of greater than 20% for at least one of the four materials were found for 9 of the 15 categories in Impact 2002+, 7 of the 18 categories in ReCiPe, and four of the nine categories in TRACI. In some cases, these differences resulted in changes in the relative rankings of the four materials. The causes of the differences for 14 combinations of materials and impact categories were examined by tracing the results back to the life cycle inventory data and the characterization factors in the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) methods. In all cases examined, a difference in the characterization factors used by the two programs was the cause of the differing results. As a result, when these software programs are used to inform choices, the result can be different conclusions about relative environmental preference that are functions purely of the software implementation of LCIA methods, rather than of the underlying data.     

Time Horizon and Dominance in Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment

Temporal aspects have traditionally not been recognized adequately in life cycle assessment (LCA). The dynamic LCA model recently proposed offers a significant step forward in the dynamic assessment of global warming impacts. The results obtained with dynamic LCA are highly sensitive to the choice of a time horizon. Therefore, decision making between alternative systems can be critical because conclusions are dependent on the specific time horizon. In this article, we develop a decision‐making methodology based on the concept of time dominance. We introduce instantaneous and cumulative time dominance criteria to the dynamic LCA context and argue why the dominance of an alternative should also imply preference. Our approach allows for the rejection of certain alternatives without the determination of a specific time horizon. The number of decision‐relevant alternatives can thereby be reduced and the decision problem facilitated. We demonstrate our methodology by means of a case study of end‐of‐life alternatives for a wooden chair derived from the original authors of dynamic LCA and discuss the implications and limitations of the approach. The methodology based on time dominance criteria is supplementary to the dynamic LCA model, but does not substitute it. The overall value of this article stretches beyond LCA onto more general assessments of global warming, for example, in policy where the choice of a time horizon is equally significant.     

On the use of possibility theory in uncertainty analysis of life cycle inventory

Purpose  

The purpose of this paper is to enhance the mathematical and physical understanding of practitioners of uncertainty analysis of life cycle inventory (LCI), on the application of possibility theory. The main questions dealt with are (1) clear definition of the terms—“necessity–possibility,” “probability,” “belief–plausibility,” and of their mutual relationships; (2) what justifies the substitution of classical probability for possibility; (3) mutual comparison of, and transformations in both senses between probability and possibility uncertainty measures; (4) how to construct meaningful input possibility measures from available probabilistic/statistic information; and (5) comparative analysis of the solutions of the problem of data uncertainty propagation in LCI, afforded, respectively, by probabilistic Monte Carlo simulation and possibilistic fuzzy interval arithmetic.     

Alzheimer's dementia: current data review

The review focuses on current data on Alzhemier's dementia, a clinical syndrom characterised with acquired deterioration of cognitive functioning and emotional capacities, which impaires everyday activity and quality of life. Alzheimer's dementia is the most common type of dementia in clinical surveys. The diagnosis of Alzheimer's dementia is primarily based on symptoms and signs and memory impairment is clinically most significant. Cholinesterase inhibitors -donepezil, rivastigmine and galantamine are considered to be the first line pharmacotherapy for mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease. Currently, no effective pharmacologic interventions have been researched enough to support their use in prevention of Alzheimer's dementia. Studies suggest that healthy lifestyle, ongoing education, regular physical activity, and cholesterol control, play a role in prevention of Alzheimer's dementia.     

When the Background Matters: Using Scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models in Prospective Life Cycle Assessment

Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA) needs to deal with the large epistemological uncertainty about the future to support more robust future environmental impact assessments of technologies. This study proposes a novel approach that systematically changes the background processes in a prospective LCA based on scenarios of an integrated assessment model (IAM), the IMAGE model. Consistent worldwide scenarios from IMAGE are evaluated in the life cycle inventory using ecoinvent v3.3. To test the approach, only the electricity sector was changed in a prospective LCA of an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) and an electric vehicle (EV) using six baseline and mitigation climate scenarios until 2050. This case study shows that changes in the electricity background can be very important for the environmental impacts of EV. Also, the approach demonstrates that the relative environmental performance of EV and ICEV over time is more complex and multifaceted than previously assumed. Uncertainty due to future developments manifests in different impacts depending on the product (EV or ICEV), the impact category, and the scenario and year considered. More robust prospective LCAs can be achieved, particularly for emerging technologies, by expanding this approach to other economic sectors beyond electricity background changes and mobility applications as well as by including uncertainty and changes in foreground parameters. A more systematic and structured composition of future inventory databases driven by IAM scenarios helps to acknowledge epistemological uncertainty and to increase the temporal consistency of foreground and background systems in LCAs of emerging technologies.     

Health effects of particulate matter formation in Life Cycle Impact Assessment: critical review and recommendation of models for Brazil

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - The impact of particulate matter (PM) formation on human health in Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) can be characterized through combining...     

Evaluation of Life Cycle Assessment Recycling Allocation Methods

Life cycle assessment practitioners struggle to accurately allocate environmental burdens of metals recycling, including the temporal dimension of environmental impacts. We analyze four approaches for calculating aluminum greenhouse gas emissions: the recycled content (RC) or cut‐off approach, which assumes that demand for recycled content displaces primary production; end‐of‐life recycling (EOLR), which assumes that postuse recycling displaces primary production; market‐based (MB) approaches, which estimate changes in supply and demand using price elasticities; and value‐corrected substitution (VCS), which allocates impact based on price differences between primary and recycled material. Our analysis suggests that applications of the VCS approach do not adequately account for the changing scrap to virgin material price ratio over time, whereas MB approaches do not address stock accumulation and depletion. The EOLR and RC approaches were analyzed using two case studies: U.S. aluminum beverage cans and vehicle engine blocks. These approaches produced similar results for beverage cans, which have a closed material loop system and a short product life. With longer product lifetimes, as noted with the engine blocks, the magnitude and timing of the emissions differs greatly between the RC and EOLR approaches. The EOLR approach indicates increased impacts at the time of production, offset by negative impacts in future years, whereas the RC approach assumes benefits to increased recycled content at the time of production. For vehicle engine blocks, emissions using EOLR are 140% higher than with RC. Results are highly sensitive to recycled content and future recycling rates, and the choice of allocation methods can have significant implications for life cycle studies.