Emergence patterns of novelty in European vegetation assemblages over the past 15 000 years

Plant communities are not stable over time and biological novelty is predicted to emerge due to climate change, the introduction of exotic species and land‐use change. However, the rate at which this novelty may arise over longer time periods has so far received little attention. We reconstruct the emergence of novelty in Europe for a set of baseline conditions over the past 15 000 years to assess past rates of emergence and investigate underlying causes. The emergence of novelty is baseline specific and, during the early‐Holocene, was mitigated by the rapid spread of plant taxa. Although novelty generally increases as a function of time, climate and human‐induced landscape changes contributed to a non‐linear post‐glacial trajectory of novelty with jumps corresponding to periods of rapid changes. Emergence of novelty accelerated during the past 1000 years. Historical cultural landscapes experienced a faster novelty development due to the contribution from anthropogenic land‐cover changes.     

Movement of a Heliconius hybrid zone over 30 years: A Bayesian approach

Hybrid zones have long been of interest to biologists as natural laboratories where we can gain insight into the processes of adaptation and speciation. Repeated sampling of individual hybrid zones has been particularly useful in elucidating the dynamic balance between selection and dispersal that maintains most hybrid zones. Here, we revisit a hybrid zone between Heliconius erato butterflies in Panamá for a third time over more than 30 years. We combine a novel Bayesian extension of stepped‐cline hybrid zone models with environmental data to understand the genetic and environmental causes of cline dynamics in this species. The cline has continued to move west, likely due to dominance drive, but has slowed and broadened. Environmental analyses suggest that widespread deforestation in Panamá could be leading to decreased avian predation and relaxed selection, causing the observed changes in cline dynamics.     

Evidence of local short‐distance spawning migration of tropical freshwater eels,and implications for the evolution of freshwater eel migration

Freshwater eels have fascinated biologists for centuries due to the spectacular long‐distance migrations between the eels’ freshwater habitats and their spawning areas far out in the ocean and the mysteries of their ecology. The spawning areas of Atlantic eels and Japanese eel were located far offshore in the Atlantic Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, respectively, and their reproduction took place thousands of kilometers away from their growth habitats. Phylogenetic studies have revealed that freshwater eels originated in the Indonesian region. However, remarkably little is known about the life histories of tropical freshwater eels despite the fact that tropical eels are key to understanding the nature of primitive forms of catadromous migration. This study found spawning‐condition tropical freshwater eels in Lake Poso, central Sulawesi, Indonesia, with considerably high gonadosomatic index values and with histologically fully developed gonads. This study provides the first evidence that under certain conditions, freshwater eels have conditions that are immediately able to spawn even in river downstream. The results suggest that, in contrast to the migrations made by the Atlantic and Japanese eels, freshwater eels originally migrated only short distances of <100 kilometers to local spawning areas adjacent to their freshwater growth habitats. Ancestral eels most likely underwent a catadromous migration from local short‐distance movements in tropical coastal waters to the long‐distance migrations characteristic of present‐day temperate eels, which has been well established as occurring in subtropical gyres in both hemispheres.     

Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years

Addressing population declines of migratory insects requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding the effects of variation in weather and climate on productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long‐distance movement. We used stable H and C isotopes and geospatial modeling to estimate the natal origin of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America using over 1000 monarchs collected over almost four decades at Mexican overwintering colonies. Multinomial regression was used to ascertain which climate‐related factors best‐predicted temporal variation in natal origin across six breeding regions. The region producing the largest proportion of overwintering monarchs was the US Midwest (mean annual proportion = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36–0.41) followed by the north‐central (0.17; 0.14–0.18), northeast (0.15; 0.11–0.16), northwest (0.12; 0.12–0.16), southwest (0.11; 0.08–0.12), and southeast (0.08; 0.07–0.11) regions. There was no evidence of directional shifts in the relative contributions of different natal regions over time, which suggests these regions are comprising the same relative proportion of the overwintering population in recent years as in the mid‐1970s. Instead, interannual variation in the proportion of monarchs from each region covaried with climate, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index and regional‐specific daily maximum temperature and precipitation, which together likely dictate larval development rates and food plant condition. Our results provide the first robust long‐term analysis of predictors of the natal origins of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Conservation efforts on the breeding grounds focused on the Midwest region will likely have the greatest benefit to eastern North American migratory monarchs, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns.     

Population dynamics of a natural red deer population over 200 years detected via substantial changes of genetic variation

Most large mammals have constantly been exposed to anthropogenic influence over decades or even centuries. Because of their long generation times and lack of sampling material, inferences of past population genetic dynamics, including anthropogenic impacts, have only relied on the analysis of the structure of extant populations. Here, we investigate for the first time the change in the genetic constitution of a natural red deer population over two centuries, using up to 200‐year‐old antlers (30 generations) stored in trophy collections. To the best of our knowledge, this is the oldest DNA source ever used for microsatellite population genetic analyses. We demonstrate that government policy and hunting laws may have strong impacts on populations that can lead to unexpectedly rapid changes in the genetic constitution of a large mammal population. A high ancestral individual polymorphism seen in an outbreeding population (1813–1861) was strongly reduced in descendants (1923–1940) during the mid‐19th and early 20th century by genetic bottlenecks. Today (2011), individual polymorphism and variance among individuals is increasing in a constant‐sized (managed) population. Differentiation was high among periods (F_ST > ***); consequently, assignment tests assigned individuals to their own period with >85% probability. In contrast to the high variance observed at nuclear microsatellite loci, mtDNA (D‐loop) was monomorphic through time, suggesting that male immigration dominates the genetic evolution in this population.     

Elevated CO2 affects photosynthetic responses in canopy pine and subcanopy deciduous trees over 10 years: a synthesis from Duke FACE

Leaf responses to elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration (C_a) are central to models of forest CO₂ exchange with the atmosphere and constrain the magnitude of the future carbon sink. Estimating the magnitude of primary productivity enhancement of forests in elevated C_a requires an understanding of how photosynthesis is regulated by diffusional and biochemical components and up‐scaled to entire canopies. To test the sensitivity of leaf photosynthesis and stomatal conductance to elevated C_a in time and space, we compiled a comprehensive dataset measured over 10 years for a temperate pine forest of Pinus taeda, but also including deciduous species, primarily Liquidambar styraciflua. We combined over one thousand controlled‐response curves of photosynthesis as a function of environmental drivers (light, air C_a and temperature) measured at canopy heights up to 20 m over 11 years (1996–2006) to generate parameterizations for leaf‐scale models for the Duke free‐air CO₂ enrichment (FACE) experiment. The enhancement of leaf net photosynthesis (A_net) in P. taeda by elevated C_a of +200 μmol mol^?1 was 67% for current‐year needles in the upper crown in summer conditions over 10 years. Photosynthetic enhancement of P. taeda at the leaf‐scale increased by two‐fold from the driest to wettest growing seasons. Current‐year pine foliage A_net was sensitive to temporal variation, whereas previous‐year foliage A_net was less responsive and overall showed less enhancement (+30%). Photosynthetic downregulation in overwintering upper canopy pine needles was small at average leaf N (N_area), but statistically significant. In contrast, co‐dominant and subcanopy L. styraciflua trees showed A_net enhancement of 62% and no A_net–N_area adjustments. Various understory deciduous tree species showed an average A_net enhancement of 42%. Differences in photosynthetic responses between overwintering pine needles and subcanopy deciduous leaves suggest that increased C_a has the potential to enhance the mixed‐species composition of planted pine stands and, by extension, naturally regenerating pine‐dominated stands.     

Development of genetic diversity,differentiation and structure over 500 years in four ponderosa pine populations

Population history plays an important role in shaping contemporary levels of genetic variation and geographic structure. This is especially true in small, isolated range‐margin populations, where effects of inbreeding, genetic drift and gene flow may be more pronounced than in large continuous populations. Effects of landscape fragmentation and isolation distance may have implications for persistence of range‐margin populations if they are demographic sinks. We studied four small, disjunct populations of ponderosa pine over a 500‐year period. We coupled demographic data obtained through dendroecological methods with microsatellite data to discern how and when contemporary levels of allelic diversity, among and within‐population levels of differentiation, and geographic structure, arose. Alleles accumulated rapidly following initial colonization, demonstrating proportionally high levels of gene flow into the populations. At population sizes of approximately 100 individuals, allele accumulation saturated. Levels of genetic differentiation among populations (F_ST and Jost's D_est) and diversity within populations (F_IS) remained stable through time. There was no evidence of geographic genetic structure at any time in the populations' history. Proportionally, high gene flow in the early stages of population growth resulted in rapid accumulation of alleles and quickly created relatively homogenous genetic patterns among populations. Our study demonstrates that contemporary levels of genetic diversity were formed quickly and early in population development. How contemporary genetic diversity accumulates over time is a key facet of understanding population growth and development. This is especially relevant given the extent and speed at which species ranges are predicted to shift in the coming century.     

Thermal heterogeneity,migration, and consequences for spawning potential of female bull trout in a river–reservoir system

The likelihood that fish will initiate spawning, spawn successfully, or skip spawning in a given year is conditioned in part on availability of energy reserves. We evaluated the consequences of spatial heterogeneity in thermal conditions on the energy accumulation and spawning potential of migratory bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in a regulated river–reservoir system. Based on existing data, we identified a portfolio of thermal exposures and migratory patterns and then estimated their influence on energy reserves of female bull trout with a bioenergetics model. Spawning by females was assumed to be possible if postspawning energy reserves equaled or exceeded 4 kJ/g. Given this assumption, results suggested up to 70% of the simulated fish could spawn each year. Fish that moved seasonally between a cold river segment and a warmer reservoir downstream had a greater growth rate and higher propensity to spawn in a given year (range: 40%–70%) compared with fish that resided solely in the cold river segment (25%–40%). On average, fish that spawned lost 30% of their energy content relative to their prespawn energy. In contrast, fish that skipped spawning accumulated, on average, 16% energy gains that could be used toward future gamete production. Skipped spawning occurred when water temperatures were relatively low or high, and if upstream migration occurred relatively late (mid‐July or later) or early (early‐May or earlier). Overall, our modeling effort suggests the configuration of thermal exposures, and the ability of bull trout to exploit this spatially and temporally variable thermal conditions can strongly influence energy reserves and likelihood of successful spawning.     

Soil carbon and nitrogen cycling and storage throughout the soil profile in a sweetgum plantation after 11 years of CO2‐enrichment

Increased partitioning of carbon (C) to fine roots under elevated [CO₂], especially deep in the soil profile, could alter soil C and nitrogen (N) cycling in forests. After more than 11 years of free‐air CO₂ enrichment in a Liquidambar styraciflua L. (sweetgum) plantation in Oak Ridge, TN, USA, greater inputs of fine roots resulted in the incorporation of new C (i.e., C with a depleted δ¹³C) into root‐derived particulate organic matter (POM) pools to 90‐cm depth. Even though production in the sweetgum stand was limited by soil N availability, soil C and N contents were greater throughout the soil profile under elevated [CO₂] at the conclusion of the experiment. Greater C inputs from fine‐root detritus under elevated [CO₂] did not result in increased net N immobilization or C mineralization rates in long‐term laboratory incubations, possibly because microbial biomass was lower in the CO₂‐enriched plots. Furthermore, the δ¹³CO₂ of the C mineralized from the incubated soil closely tracked the δ¹³C of the labile POM pool in the elevated [CO₂] treatment, especially in shallower soil, and did not indicate significant priming of the decomposition of pre‐experiment soil organic matter (SOM). Although potential C mineralization rates were positively and linearly related to total SOM C content in the top 30 cm of soil, this relationship did not hold in deeper soil. Taken together with an increased mean residence time of C in deeper soil pools, these findings indicate that C inputs from relatively deep roots under elevated [CO₂] may increase the potential for long‐term soil C storage. However, C in deeper soil is likely to take many years to accrue to a significant fraction of total soil C given relatively smaller root inputs at depth. Expanded representation of biogeochemical cycling throughout the soil profile may improve model projections of future forest responses to rising atmospheric [CO₂].