Sensitivity of French temperate coniferous forests to climate variability and extreme events (Abies alba,Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris)

Questions: (1) How do extreme climatic events and climate variability influence radial growth of conifers (silver fir, Norway spruce, Scots pine)? (2) How do elevation and soil water capacity (SWC) modulate sensitivity to climate? Location: The sampled conifer stands are in France, in western lowland and mountain forests, at elevations from 400 to 1700 m, and an SWC from 50 to 190 mm. Methods: We established stand chronologies for total ring width, earlywood and latewood width for the 33 studied stands (985 trees in total). Responses to climate were analysed using pointer years and bootstrapped response functions. Principal component analysis was applied to pointer years and response function coefficients in order to elucidate the ecological structure of the studied stands. Results: Extreme winter frosts are responsible for greater growth reductions in silver fir than in Norway spruce, especially at the upper elevation, while Scots pine was the least sensitive species. Exceptional spring droughts caused a notable growth decrease, especially when local conditions were dry (altitude<1000 m and SWC<100 mm for silver fir, western lowlands for Scots pine). Earlywood of silver fir depended on previous September and November and current‐year February temperature, after which current June and July water supply influenced latewood. Earlywood of Norway spruce was influenced by previous September temperature, after which current spring and summer droughts influenced both ring components. In Scots pine, earlywood and latewood depended on the current summer water balance. Local conditions mainly modulated latewood formation. Conclusions: If the climate becomes drier, low‐elevation dry stands or trees growing in western lowlands may face problems, as their growth is highly dependent on soil moisture availability.     

X-ray microdensitometry applied to subfossil tree-rings: growth characteristics of ancient pines from the southern boreal forest zone in Finland at intra-annual to centennial time-scales

A collection of subfossil wood of Pinus sylvestris (Scots pine) was exposed to X-ray densitometry. The collection of 64 samples from the southern boreal forest zone was dendrochronologically cross-dated to a.d. 673-1788. Growth characteristics were determined by performing density profiles including the following parameters: minimum density, earlywood and latewood boundary density, maximum density, earlywood width, earlywood density, latewood width, latewood density, annual ring width and annual ring density. Seven out of the nine parameters were found to contain non-climatic growth trends and six were found to be heteroscedastic in their variance. Tree-specific records were indexed, to remove the non-climatic growth trends and stabilize the variance, and combined into nine parameter-specific tree-ring chronologies. Growth characteristics of the pines changed in parallel with the generally agreed climatic cooling from the Medieval Warm Period to the Little Ice Age: pine tree-rings showed decreasing maximum densities from the period a.d. 975-1150 to a.d. 1450–1625. A concomitant change in the intra-annual growth characteristics was detected between these periods. The findings indicate that not only the trees growing near the species’ distributional limits are sensitive to large-scale climatic variations but also the trees growing in habitats remote from the timberline have noticeably responded to past climate changes.     

Short-term resin tapping activities had a minor influence on physiological responses recorded in the tree-ring isotopes of Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis)

Resin tapping might affect tree-ring growth, but details on the physiological responses of trees to resin tapping are still lacking, particularly for long-term responses. This study aimed to explore the physiological processes underlying resin-tapping of Chinese pine (Pinus tabuliformis) by using tree-ring stable isotopes. We compared tree-ring earlywood and latewood stable carbon (δ¹³C) and oxygen (δ¹⁸O) isotopes in the pre-resin tapping and post-resin tapping period for tapped trees and compared their values between tapped and untapped trees and their responses to climate variables in a forest stand from 1984 to 2017. Furthermore, we used a dual isotope model to distinguish between the effects of the photosynthetic assimilation rate and stomatal conductance. Results indicated that tapped and untapped trees showed similar inter-annual variation for two isotopes, while the absolute values of tapped trees were slightly (P > 0.05) lower than tapped trees in the two years following resin tapping. Climate response analysis indicated that resin tapping had no significant effect on climatic sensitivity for either stable isotope. Earlywood stable isotopes were mainly influenced by temperature, relative humidity, and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from May to July, while latewood isotopes were mainly influence by relative humidity form July to August and PDSI from July to September. The conceptual model results indicated that resin tapping lead to a slight, but not significant, decrease in the intrinsic water-use efficiency caused by increased stomatal conductance for the first two to three years following resin tapping. We conclude that tree-ring physiological responses could be less affected by short-term resin tapping activities.     

Wood borer performance and wood characteristics of drought‐stressed Scots pine seedlings

Four‐year‐old Scots pine [Pinus sylvestris L. (Pinaceae)] seedlings were exposed to medium and severe drought stress for two consecutive years. The anatomical properties of drought‐stressed Scots pine wood and their impact on the performance of destructive wood boring early instars of Hylotrupes bajulus L. (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) were studied. Drought stress significantly decreased diameter of earlywood tracheids in both growing years and diameter of latewood tracheids after the second growing season only. Cell lumen area was significantly decreased by both medium and severe drought stress compared to well‐watered controls. In addition, area of cell lumen was significantly smaller in severe drought than in medium drought treatment. The drought stress marginally increased the number of resin canals in the wood, but did not affect the size of resin canals either in wood or bark. The relative growth rate of xylophagous H. bajulus neonatal larvae was not significantly affected by drought stress during the 106‐day feeding period on Scots pine wood blocks. The results show that although water availability was an important factor affecting the development and anatomy of wood cells, observed changes in wood characteristics did not affect the performance of early instars feeding on wood processed from drought‐stressed young Scots pine seedlings.     

Scots pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L.) wood properties in an alkaline air pollution environment

This paper examines the long-term influence on pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) wood properties of alkaline dust pollution (pH 12.3–12.7) emitted over 135 years from a cement plant in Estonia. A study of stemwood physical and mechanical properties in 70–80-year-old Scots pines growing in three zones of different air pollution levels showed serious deviations in comparison with a relatively healthy forest in an unpolluted area. Specimens from polluted trees evidenced smaller sapwood annual ring widths than those from the control trees. At the same time, the number of growth rings in sapwood at breast height increased under pollution. In the polluted areas, percentage of latewood in the annual ring widths was higher than in the unpolluted area. Small amounts of cement dust, which contains elements essential for the mineral nutrition of the trees, might have acted as fertilizer. Pine wood in the polluted stands exhibited increased density, bending strength across the grain, compression strength along the grain and, in some instances, hardness along the grain.     

Growth reactions of Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus pubescens Willd. to drought years at a xeric site in Valais, Switzerland

In Valais, an inner-Alpine dry valley in Switzerland, low-elevation Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests are changing. While pine shows high mortality rates, deciduous species, in particular pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.), are becoming more abundant. We hypothesise that increasing drought and the species-specific drought tolerance are key factors in these processes. In this study, the growth reaction to drought years of pine and oak growing at a xeric site in Valais was analysed using dendrochronological and wood anatomical methods. Congruent with theoretical expectations, the tree-ring widths of both species, the mean lumen area of earlywood vessels in oak and the number of tracheids in a radial row in pine decreased in response to dry conditions. However, both species also showed reactions deviating from those known from mesic sites: In oak, the mean lumen area of latewood vessels increased in drought years. In pine, in the driest year of the period (1976), the mean radial diameter increased in latewood and decreased only slightly in earlywood. These results emphasises that the process of wood formation and cell functionality at xeric sites is not completely understood yet. Both species seem to have difficulties to adapt the size of their water-conducting cells to strongly reduced water availability in drought years. Additionally, the cell number is strongly reduced. Thus it remains unclear if both species can maintain sufficient water transport under increasingly dry conditions.     

Relevance of using whole-ring stable isotopes of black spruce trees in the perspective of climate reconstruction

Studies in dendroisotope chemistry suggested that latewood cellulose contains better climatic records than whole-ring cellulose. However, this approach has never been tested on northeastern Canadian spruce trees. This study compares dendroisotopic series of cellulose from late and whole ring, and analyses their statistical relationships with hydro-climatic variables with the aim of selecting the best suited protocol for future hydro-climatic reconstruction in the downstream sector of Churchill River basin of Labrador, Canada. To this end, δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O series from latewood (LW) and whole ring (WR) α-cellulose of black spruce trees (Picea mariana [Mill.] B.S.P.) were produced for the 1940–2010 period. The results show strong correlations between LW and WR isotopic series suggesting that there are no important variation in the isotopic ratios during the growing year and that black spruce trees use photosynthates of the current growing season to form their earlywood. Moreover, LW and WR δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O show similar relationships with both maximum temperature (T_max) and Churchill River discharge. Correlations are higher when combining δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O for LW and WR. Overall, those correlations support the indirect relationship between tree-ring isotopic series and river discharge, as they are integrators of several climatic variables and derived parameters (T_max, relative humidity, evapotranspiration, etc.). The LW and WR isotopic series give similar statistical relationships with hydro-climatic variables, and the WR treatment is faster (separation easier compared to LW). Thus, for black spruce the use of combined isotopic series in WR can be favored over LW for hydro-climatic reconstruction in the study region.     

Towards a new approach for dendroprovenancing pines in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula

Dendroprovenancing studies frequently use site chronologies to identify the origin of archaeological and historical timber. However, radial growth (tree-ring width, TRW) of tree species is influenced by both local and regional climate scales. Here we investigate how the use of annually-resolved Blue Intensity (BI) measurements can enhance dendroprovenancing precision of black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) and Scots pine (P. sylvestris L.) on the Iberian Peninsula. Principal Component Gradient Analyses (PCGA) was used to assess geographical patterns of annual variation in different TRW and BI proxies of pine trees from two mountain ranges in the Central System and Andalusia in Spain. Local climate-growth relationships were quantified to identify underlying causes of identified groups with diverse growth patterns. Two distinct elevational groups were observed when performing PCGA on latewood BI time series with the response to summer drought as the main factor causing the differences. Both P. nigra and P. sylvestris BI time series were found to be more related to summer drought at low-elevation sites showing an increase in sensitivity at lower latitudes. PCGA of TRW time series allowed to discriminate between trees from Andalusia and Central System within the elevation groups. February and October temperatures were found to be the main climatic factors causing the differences in TRW time series among the high- elevation sites, whereas for low-elevation trees it was the average winter temperature influencing TRW. A subsequent leave-one-out analyses confirmed that including latewood BI time series improves the precision of dendroprovenancing of pine wood in the Iberian Peninsula.     

河北木兰围场油松年轮生态学的初步研究

运用树木年轮气候学方法,研究了河北木兰围场油松的生长与气候要素之间的关系.结果表明：油松生长对环境变化十分敏感,以早材最为敏感.5、6月气温与油松生长存在显著的负相关关系;6月的降水和相对湿度对油松早材的生长有促进作用, 上年9月到翌年9月的降水对油松生长有更强的促进作用;12月到翌年3月的相对湿度对油松晚材生长的促进作用较干旱和全轮显著;油松的生长与大尺度气候波动存在一定的相关性.1951—2006年间,围场地区增温明显.随气温的升高,油松生长对温度和降水的敏感性下降,且有向相反方向转变的趋势.百年尺度上5—6月平均气温的重建值与观测值差异较大,说明当地油松的宽度生长对气候因子变化的敏感性波动较大.     

Intra-annual wood anatomical features of high-elevation conifers in the Great Basin,USA

Mountain conifers in the Great Basin of North America have provided some of the longest, continuous, and annually resolved paleoclimate records. Climate-growth relationships at the cellular level, which help understand wood formation processes that underlie dendroclimatic reconstructions, are at present largely unexplored in the Great Basin. We analyzed 42 trees located in the Snake Range (eastern Nevada, USA) at three sites along an elevation gradient. Sampled species included white fir (Abies concolor), Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), limber pine (Pinus flexilis), bristlecone pine (Pinus longaeva), and Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii). Wood anatomical features were quantified for two consecutive years, 2011 and 2012. Lumen area, cell wall thickness, lumen diameter, and wall-to-cell ratio were measured for the total ring as well as for earlywood and latewood. Mean standardized tracheidograms highlighted differences between 2011 and 2012, in particular concerning lumen area and wall-to-cell ratio. Most annual variation was due to earlywood, rather than latewood. Anatomical parameters of limber pine, the only species that could be tested at both the montane and subalpine sites, varied with elevation. Principal component analysis showed that the main axis of variability was related to dimensional parameters (e.g. lumen area), which reflected differences in water availability.     

The Growth response of slash pine (Pinus elliottii) to climate in the Georgia Coastal Plain

We examined tree-ring growth in a naturally seeded old-growth slash pine (Pinus elliottii Engelm. var. elliottii) stand in coastal Georgia to develop growth-climate models and reconstruct past climatic conditions during the mid and late 1800s. We generated earlywood, latewood, and annual ring chronologies dating to 1818, based on 40 cores collected from 22 trees at the Wormsloe State Historic Site near Savannah, Georgia, with 28 cores dating before 1900. We used correlation and response function analysis to relate tree-ring growth to climatic variables and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices. Water availability (represented by PDSI and secondarily, precipitation) was the most important factor determining growth for all three series, with latewood and September PDSI showing the strongest relationship. Like other species in the southeastern United States, moisture in the late winter and spring was crucial for earlywood development, while latewood and annual growth was enhanced in cooler, wetter summers, particularly with hurricanes bringing rainfall late in the growing season. Earlywood growth was greater following +ENSO (winter) phases and −NAO (winter) phases – for both indices, times when the northern Georgia coast is often relatively cool and wet. A verified split-calibration regression model based on latewood ring growth showed temporal stability and accounted for 27% of the variation in the observed September PDSI record from 1895 to 2009 (mean reduction in error = 0.21 and coefficient of efficiency = 0.05). During the instrument record, the timing of reconstructed and observed dry and moist periods matched closely; prior to that, reconstructed PDSI values indicated drought from the early 1840s to late 1850s – a period of unusually low latewood growth.     

Climatic Signals in Tree Ring Anatomical Structure of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Larix gmelinii</Emphasis> Growing under Contrasting Hydrothermal Conditions within the Forest-Tundra Ecotone

The results of comparative analysis of tree-ring anatomical structure in the trunk of Larix gmelinii (Rupr.) Rupr. growing in the forest-tundra ecotone in the north of Middle Siberia in contrasting hydrothermal conditions of permafrost soils are discussed. It is found that the best soil hydrothermal conditions affected the formation of relatively large tracheids in earlywood and latewood during the whole period investigated. Current climate warming has caused a positive trend in annual changes in the cellular characteristics in trees growing in relatively favorable soil conditions and has not caused observable changes in trees growing in adverse conditions. The wood anatomy structure of the water–conducting (earlywood) zone in the tree ring in favorable conditions is determined by the weather of late May and June, and in adverse conditions it is determined by the weather in late April and May.     

Elevated atmospheric CO2 alters wood production, wood quality and wood strength of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L) after three years of enrichment

Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) trees were grown in open top chambers for three years under ambient and elevated CO₂ concentrations. The trees were aged 3 y at the beginning of the CO₂ exposure, and the effects of the treatment on total stem volume, stem wood biomass, wood quality and wood anatomy were examined at the end of the exposure. The elevated CO₂ treatment lead to a 49% and 38% increase in stem biomass and stem wood volume, respectively. However, no significant effects of the elevated CO₂ treatment on wood density were observed, neither when green wood density was estimated from stem biomass and stem volume, nor when oven-dry wood density was measured on small wood samples. Under elevated CO₂ significantly wider growth rings were observed. The effect of elevated CO₂ on growth ring width was primarily the result of an increase in earlywood width. Wood compression strength decreased under elevated CO₂ conditions, which could be explained by significantly larger tracheids and the increased earlywood band, that has thinner walls and larger cavities. A significant decrease of the number of resin canals in the third growth ring was observed under the elevated treatment; this might indicate that trees produced and contained less resin, which has implications for disease and pest resistance. So, although wood volume yield in Scots pine increased significantly with elevated CO₂ after three years of treatment, wood density remained unchanged, while wood strength decreased. Whilst wood volume and stem biomass production may increase in this major boreal forest tree species, wood quality and resin production might decrease under future elevated CO₂ conditions.     

不同林分类型林缘华北落叶松细胞特征

以塞罕坝机械林场华北落叶松纯林及华北落叶松-白桦混交林为对象,研究林地边缘华北落叶松边界木与林内木径向生长、年轮细胞大小及数量的差异,分析林缘对不同林分类型华北落叶松径向生长及细胞特征的影响。结果表明: 纯林中边界木的径向生长显著快于林内木,年轮总宽、早材和晚材总生长量在边界木较林内木分别增加48.9%、58.9%和29.6%,而混交林边界木与林内木的径向生长差距并不明显。纯林边界木早材细胞总数、早材大细胞和小细胞数量较林内木分别增加63.3%、55.6%和70.0%,晚材细胞总数、晚材大细胞和小细胞数量边界木较林内木分别增加35.4%、37.5%和28.5%,而早晚材细胞大小在边界木与林内木间无显著差异。混交林边界木早晚材细胞数量与林内木无显著差异,但边界木早材细胞大小较林内木增大50.0%,边界木早材最大细胞、最小细胞、大细胞及小细胞的大小较林内木分别增大28.6%、33.3%、16.6%和25.0%。通过混交的方式营造混交林可以有效地缓解林缘导致的纯林中边界木生长过快而林内木生长较慢的现象。     

How do water transport and water storage differ in coniferous earlywood and latewood?

The goal of this research project was to determine the water transport behaviour of earlywood versus latewood in the trunk of 21-year-old Douglas-fir [Pseudostuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco] trees. Specific conductivity (k(s)) and the vulnerability of xylem to embolism were measured on a single growth ring and in a subset of earlywood and latewood samples within the same ring. Earlywood/latewood ratio, trunk water potential (Psi) and relative water content (RWC) were used to predict differences in conductivities and vulnerability to embolism. Earlywood has about 11 times the k(s) of latewood, and up to 90% of the total flow occurred through the earlywood. Earlywood's vulnerability to embolism followed the same trend as that of the whole wood, with 50% loss of conductivity at -2.2 MPa (P(50)). Latewood was more vulnerable to embolism than earlywood at high Psi, but as Psi decreased, the latewood showed very little further embolism, with a P(50) <-5.0 MPa. The lowest trunk Psi estimated in the field was about -1.4 MPa, indicating that latewood and earlywood in the field experienced about 42% and 16% loss of k(s), respectively. The higher vulnerability to embolism in latewood than in earlywood at field Psi was associated with higher water storage capacity (21.8% RWC MPa(-1) versus 4.1% RWC MPa(-1), latewood and earlywood, respectively). The shape of the vulnerability curve suggests that air seeding through latewood may occur directly through pores in the margo and seal off at lower pressure than earlywood pores.     

Association genetics in Pinus taeda L. I. Wood property traits

Genetic association is a powerful method for dissecting complex adaptive traits due to (i) fine-scale mapping resulting from historical recombination, (ii) wide coverage of phenotypic and genotypic variation within a single experiment, and (iii) the simultaneous discovery of loci and alleles. In this article, genetic association among single nucleotide polymorphisms (58 SNPs) from 20 wood- and drought-related candidate genes and an array of wood property traits with evolutionary and commercial importance, namely, earlywood and latewood specific gravity, percentage of latewood, earlywood microfibril angle, and wood chemistry (lignin and cellulose content), was tested using mixed linear models (MLMs) that account for relatedness among individuals by using a pairwise kinship matrix. Population structure, a common systematic bias in association studies, was assessed using 22 nuclear microsatellites. Different phenotype:genotype associations were found, some of them confirming previous evidence from collocation of QTL and genes in linkage maps (for example, 4cl and percentage of latewood) and two that involve nonsynonymous polymorphisms (cad SNP M28 with earlywood specific gravity and 4cl SNP M7 with percentage of latewood). The strongest genetic association found in this study was between allelic variation in alpha-tubulin, a gene involved in the formation of cortical microtubules, and earlywood microfibril angle. Intragenic LD decays rapidly in conifers; thus SNPs showing genetic association are likely to be located in close proximity to the causative polymorphisms. This first multigene association genetic study in forest trees has shown the feasibility of candidate gene strategies for dissecting complex adaptive traits, provided that genes belonging to key pathways and appropriate statistical tools are used. This approach is of particular utility in species such as conifers, where genomewide strategies are limited by their large genomes.     

High-resolution climatic analysis of wood anatomical features in Corsican pine from Corsica (France) using latewood tracheid profiles

Key message

We propose a new methodology to identify intra-annual density fluctuations in latewood using cell features and relative radial position within the latewood of pine trees growing on Corsica, France. Climatic forcing of latewood wood anatomical anomalies was analyzed.

Abstract

We analyzed latewood anatomical features from Corsican pine (Pinus nigra ssp. laricio) of high-elevation sites in Corsica (France) derived from digital images of the wood surface. Latewood of each ring during the period 1950–2008 was partitioned into ten equal parts P1–P10. Mean values of the cell parameters cell lumen area (CLA), radial cell width (RCW), radial cell wall thickness (CWT), and modeled latewood density (MLD) were calculated for P1–P10. The cellular profiles for each cell parameter were subjected to principal component analyses. It was possible to quantify macroscopically visible variations of wood anatomy like intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs) by latewood profiles of different cell parameters. A combination of cell parameter characteristics including their relative radial position within latewood provides a quantification of the cell anatomical variations in an IADF. Individual cell parameter chronologies and principal components of cell parameter profiles were correlated with climate data to determine the climatic forcing on latewood formation. Average cell parameter profiles and deviations from the long-term means are able to describe “normal” and “anomalous” environmental conditions during latewood formation. Cell feature anomalies throughout the latewood during individual years allow the reconstruction of past weather conditions with a high temporal resolution.     

Key parameters controlling stiffness variability within trees: a multiscale experimental–numerical approach

Microstructural properties of wood vary considerably within a tree. Knowledge of these properties and a better understanding of their relationship to the macroscopic mechanical performance of wood are crucial to optimize the yield and economic value of forest stocks. This holds particularly for the end-use requirements in engineering applications. In this study the microstructure–stiffness relationships of Scots pine are examined with a focus on the effects of the microstructural variability on the elastic properties of wood at different length scales. For this purpose, we have augmented microstructural data acquired using SilviScan-3? (namely wood density, cell dimensions, earlywood and latewood proportion, microfibril angle) with local measurements of these quantities and of the chemical composition derived from wide-angle X-ray scattering, light microscopy, and thermogravimetric analysis, respectively. The stiffness properties were determined by means of ultrasonic tests at the clear wood scale and by means of nanoindentation at the cell wall scale. In addition, micro-mechanical modeling was applied to assess the causal relations between structural and mechanical properties and to complement the experimental investigations. Typical variability profiles of microstructural and mechanical properties are shown from pith to bark, across a single growth ring and from earlywood to latewood. The clear increase of the longitudinal stiffness as well as the rather constant transverse stiffness from pith to bark could be explained by the variation in microfibril angle and wood density over the entire radial distance. The dependence of local cell wall stiffness on the local microfibril angle was also demonstrated. However, the local properties did not necessarily follow the trends observed at the macroscopic scale and exhibited only a weak relationship with the macroscopic mechanical properties. While the relationship between silvicultural practice and wood microstructure remains to be modeled using statistical techniques, the influence of microstructural properties on the macroscopic mechanical behavior of wood can now be described by a physical model. The knowledge gained by these investigations and the availability of a new micromechanical model, which allows transferring these findings to non-tested material, will be valuable for wood quality assessment and optimization in timber engineering.     

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs).Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits.Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen.Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios.