Grassland dynamics under sheep grazing in an Australian Mediterranean type climate

Grassland dynamics in a degraded disclimax grassland dominated by Danthonia caespitosa Gaudich. are examined using both demographic and multivariate approaches in an experiment designed to determine the effect of grazing intensity and exclosure on pasture dynamics. The experiment ran for 20 years from 1949 to 1968, using permanent quadrats at 3 grazing intensities and within exclosures. Demographic studies of some perennial grass species demonstrated markedly different responses to grazing; Danthonia caespitosa was unaffected by grazing but responsive to seasonal rainfall differences. Enteropogon acicularis survived only on protected sites. Numerical classification of total species set (121 species) for six observation periods demonstrated that community types were sensitive to differences in winter rainfall, and time since the start of experiment. Principal component analysis of permanent quadrat observations for individual years demonstrates quadrat trajectories which confirm this and indicate progressive divergence of the successional trends of the grazed and ungrazed quadrats. Repeated analysis on grazed quadrats only, shows that three components of pasture dynamics can be recognized; these are trend (succession?) and seasonal differences, each of which account for about 20% of the variance, and differences due to soil heterogeneity in the experimental paddock (8% of variance accounted for). No effect of grazing intensity was detected. Multivariate techniques can provide a clear partitioning of types of dynamic behaviour present in grassland communities. It is concluded that partitioning of environmental heterogeneity prior to demographic studies would increase their sensitivity.

     

Predicting the influence of wolf-provided carrion on scavenger community dynamics under climate change scenarios

Climate change poses an immediate threat to the persistence and distribution of many species, yet our ability to forecast changes in species composition is hindered by poor understanding of the extent to which higher trophic‐level interactions may buffer or exacerbate the adverse effects of warming. We incorporated species‐specific consumption data from 240 wolf‐killed elk carcasses from Yellowstone National Park into stochastic simulation models to link trends in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to food procurement by a guild of scavengers as a function of gray wolf reintroduction. We find that a shift in ENSO towards the El Niño (warming) phase of the cycle coincident with increasing global temperatures reduces carrion for scavengers, particularly those with strong seasonal patterns in resource use such as grizzly bears. Wolves alleviate these warming‐induced food shortages by rendering control over this crucial resource to biotic rather than abiotic factors. Ecosystems with intact top predators are likely to exhibit stronger biotic regulation and should be more resistant to climate change than ecosystems lacking them.     

As to the influence of climate on head form.

In two quite different geographical regions--Mo?ambique and Hierro (an island of the Canaries)--observations have been made which point to an influence of climatic conditions on head dimensions: In localities of higher altitude or/and with colder climate maximum head breadth, minimum frontal breadth and auricular height proved to show higher dimensions compared with localities of milder (more hot) climate.     

The influence of climate on the regional distribution of nut crops in Turkey

The distribution in Turkey of filbert, pistachio, chestnut, almond and walnut is discussed in relation to their method of propagation and climatic parameters. The effect of temperature and rainfall severely limits the present production areas of filbert and pistachio, both of which are vegetatively propagated. In contrast, almonds and walnuts are mainly propagated from seed and are more widely distributed throughout the country. Their distribution is discussed in relation to the genetic diversity and the adaptability of local tree populations to varied climatic conditions. Data are presented on the range of variability of nut and kernel weight of almonds and walnuts.     

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.     

Ecology of aquatic Ranunculus communities under the Mediterranean climate

The Iberian Peninsula encompasses more than 80% of the species richness of European aquatic ranunculi. The floristic diversity of the phytocoenosis characterised by aquatic Ranunculus and the main physical–chemical factors of the water were studied in 43 localities of the central Iberian Peninsula. Four aquatic Ranunculus communities are found in most of the aquatic environments. These are species-poor and have an uneven distribution: three species of Batrachium are heterophyllous and their communities are distributed in different aquatic ecosystems on silicated substrates; one species is homophyllous and its community occurs in various aquatic ecosystems with carbonated waters. In the Mediterranean climate, Ranunculus species are present in different habitats, as shown by the results of all the statistical analyses. Ranunculus trichophyllus communities occur in base-rich waters with a high buffering capacity (2273.44 ± 794.57 mg CaCO₃ L⁻¹) and a high concentration of cations (Ca²⁺, 121 ± 33.12 mg L⁻¹; Mg²⁺, 71.64 ± 82.77 mg L⁻¹), nitrates (2.89 ± 4.80 mg L⁻¹), ammonium (2.19 ± 1.36 mg L⁻¹) and sulphates (216.25 ± 218.54 mg L⁻¹). Ranunculus penicillatus communities are found in flowing waters with a high concentration of phosphates (0.48 ± 0.6 mg L⁻¹) and intermediate buffering capacity (683.66 ± 446.76 mg CaCO₃ L⁻¹). Both Ranunculus pseudofluitans and Ranunculus peltatus communities grow in waters with low buffering capacity (R. pseudofluitans, 385.91 ± 209.2 mg CaCO₃ L⁻¹; R. peltatus, 263.3 ± 180.36 mg CaCO₃ L⁻¹), and a low concentration of cations (R. pseudofluitans: Ca²⁺, 12.57 ± 9.42 mg L⁻¹; Mg²⁺, 3.42 ± 1.67 mg L⁻¹; R. peltatus: Ca²⁺, 15 ± 18.26 mg L⁻¹; Mg²⁺, 6.26 ± 8.89 mg L⁻¹) and nutrients (R. pseudofluitans: nitrates, 0.23 ± 0.2 mg L⁻¹; phosphates, 0.09 ± 0.1 mg L⁻¹; R. peltatus: nitrates, 0.19 ± 0.21 mg L⁻¹; phosphates, 0.09 ± 0.12 mg L⁻¹); the first in flowing waters, the latter in still waters.     

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate change on the population dynamics of a Mediterranean tortoise

Climatic shifts may increase the extinction risk of populations, especially when they are already suffering from other anthropogenic impacts. Our ability to predict the consequences of climate change on endangered species is limited by our scarce knowledge of the effects of climate variability on the population dynamics of most organisms and by the uncertainty of climate projections, which depend strongly on the region of the earth being considered. In this study, we analysed a long‐term monitoring programme (1988–2009) of Hermann's tortoise (Testudo hermanni) aimed at evaluating the consequences of the drastic changes in temperature and precipitation patterns predicted for the Mediterranean region on the demography of a long‐lived species with low dispersal capability and already suffering a large number of threats. Capture–recapture modelling of a population in the Ebro Delta (NE Spain) allowed us to assess the effect of climate variability on the survival of tortoises. Winter rainfall was found to be the major driver of juvenile and immature survival, whereas that of adults remained high and constant across the study. Furthermore, local climate series obtained ad hoc from regional climate simulations, for this and 10 additional Mediterranean locations where tortoises occurred, provided us with reliable future climate forecasts, which were used to simulate the fate of these populations under three precipitation scenarios (mean, wet and dry) using stochastic population modelling. We show that a shift to a more arid climate would have negative consequences for population persistence, enhancing juvenile mortality and increasing quasiextinction risk because of a decrease in recruitment. These processes varied depending on the population and the climate scenario we considered, but our results suggest that unless other human‐induced causes of mortality are suppressed (e.g. poaching, fire, habitat fragmentation), climate variability will increase extinction risk within most of the species’ current range.     

Dramatic loss of seagrass habitat under projected climate change in the Mediterranean Sea

Although climate warming is affecting most marine ecosystems, the Mediterranean is showing earlier impacts. Foundation seagrasses are already experiencing a well‐documented regression in the Mediterranean which could be aggravated by climate change. Here, we forecast distributions of two seagrasses and contrast predicted loss with discrete regions identified on the basis of extant genetic diversity. Under the worst‐case scenario, Posidonia oceanica might lose 75% of suitable habitat by 2050 and is at risk of functional extinction by 2100, whereas Cymodocea nodosa would lose only 46.5% in that scenario as losses are compensated with gained and stable areas in the Atlantic. Besides, we predict that erosion of present genetic diversity and vicariant processes can happen, as all Mediterranean genetic regions could decrease considerably in extension in future warming scenarios. The functional extinction of Posidonia oceanica would have important ecological impacts and may also lead to the release of the massive carbon stocks these ecosystems stored over millennia.     

Investigating uncertainties in zooplankton composition shifts under climate change scenarios in the Mediterranean Sea

Ensemble niche modelling has become a common framework to predict changes in assemblages composition under climate change scenarios. The amount of uncertainty generated by the different components of this framework has rarely been assessed. In the marine realm forecasts have usually focused on taxa representing the top of the marine food‐web, thus overlooking their basal component: the plankton. Calibrating environmental niche models at the global scale, we modelled the habitat suitability of 106 copepod species and estimated the dissimilarity between present and future zooplanktonic assemblages in the surface Mediterranean Sea. We identified the patterns (species replacement versus nestedness) driving the predicted dissimilarity, and quantified the relative contributions of different uncertainty sources: environmental niche models, greenhouse gas emission scenarios, circulation model configurations and species prevalence. Our results confirm that the choice of the niche modelling method is the greatest source of uncertainty in habitat suitability projections. Presence‐only and presence–absence methods provided different visions of the niches, which subsequently lead to different future scenarios of biodiversity changes. Nestedness with decline in species richness is the pattern driving dissimilarity between present and future copepod assemblages. Our projections contrast with those reported for higher trophic levels, suggesting that different components of the pelagic food‐web may respond discordantly to future climatic changes.     

气候变化背景下生物入侵研究态势的文献计量分析

生物入侵严重威胁生物多样性与生态系统健康,对全球环境、经济造成极大损失,而快速的气候变化显著影响外来生物的扩散和入侵进程。探讨气候变化背景下生物入侵研究态势能够从宏观上把握该领域的国际研究现状与热点,为深入理解外来种入侵机制和制定合理的防治策略提供参考。该文基于最近27 a间(1990—2016年)科学文献数据库Web of Science中科学引文索引扩展版(SCI-E)数据,利用TDA等统计工具对气候变化下生物入侵方面的研究进行了文献计量分析。结果表明:27 a间共发表论文1 736篇,论文数量整体保持增长态势,2009年开始进入快速发展阶段;该领域的研究涉及环境科学与生态学、生物多样性保护、植物学等多个学科;澳大利亚莫纳什大学Chown SL教授发文量最高(35篇);美国的总发文量(708篇)和高被引、高影响因子论文数量均居世界首位;发文量最多的研究机构是加利福尼亚大学(93篇),中国科学院发文量居世界第10位(27篇);Biological Invasions是刊文量最大的学术杂志;物种分布模型、生物多样性、全球变暖、风险评估等是近年来该领域的研究热点;中国共发表论文52篇,中国科学院是国内最大的发文机构,其中,动物研究所、武汉植物园、植物研究所的发文量居中科院科研系统前三名;中国在气候变化下生物入侵领域的高被引、高影响因子论文数量及国际合作强度亟待提升。未来需重点关注气候变化下生物入侵的预测与风险评估、生物入侵与生物多样性关系、入侵物种的系统进化、入侵生态系统的多营养级关系、海洋生物入侵、生物入侵与人类健康等问题。     

Determinants of growth of the flammable grass,Triodia scariosa: Consequences for fuel dynamics under climate change in the Mediterranean region of South Eastern Australia

Environmental conditions may influence the presence and strength of competitive interactions between different life forms, thereby shaping community composition and structure, and corresponding fuel dynamics. Woodland and shrubland communities of the Mediterranean climate region of South Eastern Australia contain a varied mixture of herbaceous and woody plants. The ratio of herbaceous to woody plants changes along gradients of temperature, moisture and soil fertility. This study aimed to experimentally examine the relative importance of, and interactions between environmental controls (moisture and soil fertility) on the balance of dominant herbaceous (Triodia scariosa) and woody plants (e.g. Acacia ligulata and Leptospermum coriaceum) and their ultimate effects on fuel and fire regimes. The results suggest that environmental determinants of the growth of T. scariosa are likely to be more important than interactions with shrubs in controlling the distribution of T. scariosa. The growth of T. scariosa was consistently higher under hot temperatures and on the less fertile yellow sands, which dominate the south of the region. The results suggest that there is strong potential for the distribution and abundance of T. scariosa to be altered in the future with changes in temperature associated with climate change. The distribution of soil types across the Mediterranean climate region of South Eastern Australia may be predisposed to favour the southerly expansion of T. scariosa‐dominated communities in the future under a warmer climate.     

Enhanced UV-B radiation alleviates the adverse effects of summer drought in two Mediterranean pines under field conditions

The effects of enhanced UV-B (290-320 nm) radiation on two native Mediterranean pines (Pinus pinea L., Pinus halepensis Mill.) were recorded during a one-year field study. Plants received ambient or ambient plus supplemental UV-B radiation (simulating a 15% stratospheric ozone depletion over Patras. Greece, 38.3°N. 29.1°E) and only natural precipitation, i.e. they were simultaneously exposed to other natural stresses. particularly water stress during summer. Supplemental UV-B irradiation started in early February, 1993 and up to late June, no effects were observed on growth and photochemical efficiency of photosystem II, as measured by chlorophy II fluorescence induction. Water stress during the summer was manifested in the control plants as a decline in the ratio of variable to maximum fluorescence (F_v/F_m), the apparent photon yield for oxygen evolution (φ_l) and the photosynthetic capacity at 5% CO₂ (P_m). In addition, a partial needle loss was evident. Under supplemental UV-B radiation, however, the decreases in F_v/F_m, φ_i, and P_m. as well as needle losses were significantly less. Soon after the first heavy autumn rains. photosynthetic parameters in both control and UV-B treated plants recovered to similar values. but the transient summer superiority of UV-B irradiated plants resulted in a significant increase in their dry weight measured at plant harvest. during late January. 1994. Plant height. UV-B absorbing compounds, photosynthetic pigments and relative water content measured at late spring. late summer and at plant harvest, were not significantly affected by supplemental UV-B radiation. The results indicate that enhanced UV-B radiation may be beneficial for Mediterranean pines through a partial alleviation of the adverse effects of summer drought.     

Factors affecting summer maize yield under climate change in Shandong Province in the Huanghuaihai region of China

Clarification of influencing factors (cultivar planted, cultivation management, climatic conditions) affecting yields of summer maize (Zea mays L.) would provide valuable information for increasing yields further under variable climatic conditions. Here, we report actual maize yields in the Huanghuaihai region over the past 50 years (1957–2007), simulated yields of major varieties in different years (Baimaya in the 1950s, Zhengdan-2 in the 1970s, Yedan-13 in the 1990s, and Zhengdan-958 in the 2000s), and factors that influence yield. The results show that, although each variety change has played a critical role in increasing maize yields, the contribution of variety to yield increase has decreased steadily over the past 50 years (42.6%–44.3% from the 1950s to the 1970s, 34.4%–47.2% from the 1970s to the 1990s, and 21.0%–37.6% from the 1990s to the 2000s). The impact of climatic conditions on maize yield has exhibited an increasing trend (0.67%–22.5% from the 1950s to the 1970s, 2.6%–27.0% from the 1970s to the 1990s, and 9.1%–51.1% from the 1990s to the 2000s); however, interannual differences can be large, especially if there were large changes in temperature and rainfall. Among climatic factors, rainfall had a greater positive influence than light and temperature on yield increase. Cultivation measures could change the contribution rates of variety and climatic conditions. Overall, unless there is a major breakthrough in variety, improving cultivation measures will remain important for increasing future summer maize yields in the Huanghuaihai region.     

Monthly dynamics of the epidemic process in viral hepatitis B

Monthly fluctuations in the number of registered cases of acute viral hepatitis B and HBsAg carriership have been studied. The study has revealed that, similarly to other infectious diseases, viral hepatitis is characterized by monthly fluctuations in the intensity of the epidemic process. Such fluctuations are characteristic of all known clinical forms of this infection; they are determined by the specific pathogenetic features of the process and by the ways of the transfer of the virus. The vernal rise of the infection is explained by activation of the manifest and asymptomatic chronic variants of the infectious process and, as the consequence of a rise in the number of asymptomatic cases, by a higher incidence rate of post-transfusion hepatitis infection. The autumnal rise of the infection results from the action of natural factors contributing to the transfer of the virus. Both rises are interrelated and interdependent. The seasonal fluctuations of the epidemic process should be taken into consideration when planning and implementing prophylactic and epidemic-control measures.     

暖冬条件下播期对不同类型小麦幼穗分化的影响

对3个不同类型小麦品种在不同播期下的幼穗分化进程及受冻情况进行了系统观察和研究。结果表明,在气候变暖,秋、冬温度较高的情况下,小麦幼穗分化进入各时期的时间早晚为强春性品种>春性品种>半冬性品种;播期对小麦幼穗分化的伸长期、单棱期和二棱期持续时间长短影响较大;在早播的情况下。春性越强的小麦品种,越冬前幼穗分化发育速度越快,达到的发育阶段越高,越冬期间越容易被冻死。据此,提出在河南气候变暖,秋、冬温度较高的情况下,首先在生产上要选用半冬性品种,适当搭配晚播早熟的春性品种;其次,无论半冬性品种或春性品种。播种期都不宜过早。     

Woodland dynamics under the influence of elephants and fire in Northern Botswana

Sustained elephant browsing and intense burning could result in the loss of woodlands under conditions where elephant densities are high, such as in northern Botswana. Three woodland types dominated by Acacia erioloba, Baikiaea plurijuga and Colophospermum mopane were monitored in plots and contemporary recruitment rates of woody plants were compared with the associated local elephant densities and fire occurrences. Woodland types differed with respect to structure, extent of elephant damage and the occurrence of fire. Canonical correlations indicated that high extent of fire damage and high elephant densities did not covary within the woodland types investigated. Low tree densities in some woodland types were associated with high elephant densities and new elephant damage to plants increased with high elephant densities during the dry season. Plots with an apparent high fire frequency had lower tree densities and higher cover abundance of shrubs and seedlings.The annual rates of tree recruitment/loss in each woodland type were estimated through a model based on observed seedling recruitment, mortality and reversal to lower height classes due to combinations of fire occurrence and elephant browsing. The model suggested that elephants induce tree loss in woodlands dominated by plant species which are principal food sources. Fire however, seems to have a widespread effect across woodlands which could result in extensive tree loss.     

Uncertainty in predicting range dynamics of endemic alpine plants under climate warming

Correlative species distribution models have long been the predominant approach to predict species’ range responses to climate change. Recently, the use of dynamic models is increasingly advocated for because these models better represent the main processes involved in range shifts and also simulate transient dynamics. A well‐known problem with the application of these models is the lack of data for estimating necessary parameters of demographic and dispersal processes. However, what has been hardly considered so far is the fact that simulating transient dynamics potentially implies additional uncertainty arising from our ignorance of short‐term climate variability in future climatic trends. Here, we use endemic mountain plants of Austria as a case study to assess how the integration of decadal variability in future climate affects outcomes of dynamic range models as compared to projected long‐term trends and uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters. We do so by contrasting simulations of a so‐called hybrid model run under fluctuating climatic conditions with those based on a linear interpolation of climatic conditions between current values and those predicted for the end of the 21st century. We find that accounting for short‐term climate variability modifies model results nearly as differences in projected long‐term trends and much more than uncertainty in demographic/dispersal parameters. In particular, range loss and extinction rates are much higher when simulations are run under fluctuating conditions. These results highlight the importance of considering the appropriate temporal resolution when parameterizing and applying range‐dynamic models, and hybrid models in particular. In case of our endemic mountain plants, we hypothesize that smoothed linear time series deliver more reliable results because these long‐lived species are primarily responsive to long‐term climate averages.     

Soil organic matter dynamics after afforestation of mountain grasslands in both a Mediterranean and a temperate climate

We studied the effect of mountain grassland afforestation with conifer trees (Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies and Pinus cembra) on soil organic matter (SOM) cycling and carbon (C) isotopic composition in two contrasting climate areas using a regional approach. Seventeen paired sites (each containing at least 40 years prior afforested and grassland plots) were investigated in the mountains of Central Spain and Western Austria. Topsoil CO₂ effluxes were monitored under standardized conditions for six months as a proxy for soil organic carbon (SOC) mineralisation. The bulk C and nitrogen (N) concentrations and their isotopic composition in the soil and in the plants were assessed. The soil C:N ratio was consistently greater after afforestation in both regions, which in Spain was caused by a significant decrease in N concentration. No consistent effect was found on mineralisation rates due to vegetation change. Afforestation produced a more consistent soil ¹³C enrichment in the Spanish than in the Austrian sites. Our work strongly suggests that increasing altitude in Mediterranean mountain grasslands alleviates water limitation, favouring both plant growth and SOM decomposition, and ultimately accelerating C cycling. In contrast, temperate grassland areas at high altitudes were associated with severe temperature limitations, which constrained SOM transformation processes. In spite of the impact of afforestation on soil biogeochemical processes, C concentrations were marginally affected. We therefore conclude that grassland conversion to coniferous forests does not enhanced C sequestration in the mineral soil, for at least 40 years after land-use change.