Molecular Evolution of Human H1N1 and H3N2 Influenza A Virus in Thailand, 2006–2009

Background

Annual seasonal influenza outbreaks are associated with high morbidity and mortality.

Objective

To index and document evolutionary changes among influenza A H1N1 and H3N2 viruses isolated from Thailand during 2006–2009, using complete genome sequences.

Methods

Nasopharyngeal aspirates were collected from patients diagnosed with respiratory illness in Thailand during 2006–2009. All samples were screened for Influenza A virus. A total of 13 H1N1 and 21 H3N2 were confirmed and whole genome sequenced for the evolutionary analysis using standard phylogenetic approaches.

Results

Phylogenetic analysis of HA revealed a clear diversification of seasonal from vaccine strain lineages. H3N2 seasonal clusters were closely related to the WHO recommended vaccine strains in each season. Most H1N1 isolates could be differentiated into 3 lineages. The A/Brisbane/59/2007 lineage, a vaccine strain for H1N1 since 2008, is closely related with the H1N1 subtypes circulating in 2009. HA sequences were conserved at the receptor-binding site. Amino acid variations in the antigenic site resulted in a possible N-linked glycosylation motif. Recent H3N2 isolates had higher genetic variations compared to H1N1 isolates. Most substitutions in the NP protein were clustered in the T-cell recognition domains.

Conclusion

In this study we performed evolutionary genetic analysis of influenza A viruses in Thailand between 2006–2009. Although the current vaccine strain is efficient for controlling the circulating outbreak subtypes, surveillance is necessary to provide unambiguous information on emergent viruses. In summary, the findings of this study contribute the understanding of evolution in influenza A viruses in humans and is useful for routine surveillance and vaccine strain selection.     

Evolution of the Hemagglutinin Gene of the Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus in Morocco During Two Influenza Seasons 2009–2011

To study genetic evolution of Moroccan influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strains, we conducted a molecular characterization of the hemagglutinin gene subunit 1 (HA1) of 36 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strains. The stains were collected from patients in Rabat and Casablanca during two influenza seasons 2009–2010 and 2010–2011. Nucleotide and amino acid sequences of 14 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strains from 2009 to 2010 were ~97 and 99 %, respectively, similar to the reference strain A/California/07/2009 (H1N1). Phylogenetic analysis of 22 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strains from 2010 to 2011 revealed a co-circulation of three well-described different genetic groups. Most important, none of the identified groups showed significant changes at the antigenic site of the virus HA1 subunit which may alter the efficacy of California/07/2009 (H1N1) vaccine.     

Chances and Limitations of Wild Bird Monitoring for the Avian Influenza Virus H5N1 — Detection of Pathogens Highly Mobile in Time and Space

Highly pathogenic influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 proved to be remarkably mobile in migratory bird populations where it has led to extensive outbreaks for which the true number of affected birds usually cannot be determined. For the evaluation of avian influenza monitoring and HPAIV early warning systems, we propose a time-series analysis that includes the estimation of confidence intervals for (i) the prevalence in outbreak situations or (ii) in the apparent absence of disease in time intervals for specified regional units. For the German outbreak regions in 2006 and 2007, the upper 95% confidence limit allowed the detection of prevalences below 1% only for certain time intervals. Although more than 25,000 birds were sampled in Germany per year, the upper 95% confidence limit did not fall below 5% in the outbreak regions for most of the time. The proposed analysis can be used to monitor water bodies and high risk areas, also as part of an early-warning system. Chances for an improved targeting of the monitoring system as part of a risk-based approach are discussed with the perspective of reducing sample sizes.     

Comparison of Shedding Characteristics of Seasonal Influenza Virus (Sub)Types and Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09; Germany, 2007–2011

Background

Influenza viral shedding studies provide fundamental information for preventive strategies and modelling exercises. We conducted a prospective household study to investigate viral shedding in seasonal and pandemic influenza between 2007 and 2011 in Berlin and Munich, Germany.

Methods

Study physicians recruited index patients and their household members. Serial nasal specimens were obtained from all household members over at least eight days and tested quantitatively by qRT-PCR for the influenza virus (sub)type of the index patient. A subset of samples was also tested by viral culture. Symptoms were recorded daily.

Results

We recruited 122 index patients and 320 household contacts, of which 67 became secondary household cases. Among all 189 influenza cases, 12 were infected with seasonal/prepandemic influenza A(H1N1), 19 with A(H3N2), 60 with influenza B, and 98 with A(H1N1)pdm09. Nine (14%) of 65 non-vaccinated secondary cases were asymptomatic/subclinical (0 (0%) of 21 children, 9 (21%) of 44 adults; p = 0.03). Viral load among patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) peaked on illness days 1, 2 or 3 for all (sub)types and declined steadily until days 7–9. Clinical symptom scores roughly paralleled viral shedding dynamics. On the first day prior to symptom onset 30% (12/40) of specimens were positive. Viral load in 6 asymptomatic/subclinical patients was similar to that in ILI-patients. Duration of infectiousness as measured by viral culture lasted approximately until illness days 4–6. Viral load did not seem to be influenced by antiviral therapy, age or vaccination status.

Conclusion

Asymptomatic/subclinical infections occur infrequently, but may be associated with substantial amounts of viral shedding. Presymptomatic shedding may arise in one third of cases, and shedding characteristics appear to be independent of (seasonal or pandemic) (sub)type, age, antiviral therapy or vaccination; however the power to find moderate differences was limited.     

Improving the Clinical Diagnosis of Influenza—a Comparative Analysis of New Influenza A (H1N1) Cases

Background

The presentation of new influenza A(H1N1) is broad and evolving as it continues to affect different geographic locations and populations. To improve the accuracy of predicting influenza infection in an outpatient setting, we undertook a comparative analysis of H1N1(2009), seasonal influenza, and persons with acute respiratory illness (ARI) in an outpatient setting.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Comparative analyses of one hundred non-matched cases each of PCR confirmed H1N1(2009), seasonal influenza, and ARI cases. Multivariate analysis was performed to look for predictors of influenza infection. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for various combinations of clinical and laboratory case definitions. The initial clinical and laboratory features of H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza were similar. Among ARI cases, fever, cough, headache, rhinorrhea, the absence of leukocytosis, and a normal chest radiograph positively predict for both PCR-confirmed H1N1-2009 and seasonal influenza infection. The sensitivity and specificity of current WHO and CDC influenza-like illness (ILI) criteria were modest in predicting influenza infection. However, the combination of WHO ILI criteria with the absence of leukocytosis greatly improved the accuracy of diagnosing H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza (positive LR of 7.8 (95%CI 3.5–17.5) and 9.2 (95%CI 4.1–20.3) respectively).

Conclusions/Significance

The clinical presentation of H1N1(2009) infection is largely indistinguishable from that of seasonal influenza. Among patients with acute respiratory illness, features such as a temperature greater than 38°C, rhinorrhea, a normal chest radiograph, and the absence of leukocytosis or significant gastrointestinal symptoms were all positively associated with H1N1(2009) and seasonal influenza infection. An enhanced ILI criteria that combines both a symptom complex with the absence of leukocytosis on testing can improve the accuracy of predicting both seasonal and H1N1-2009 influenza infection.     

Comparison of Influenza Outbreaks in the Republic of Kazakhstan and Russia Induced by 2009 Yearly New Variant of А(H1N1) Influenza Virus

The aim of the work is the comparison of the epidemiology of influenza and acute respiratory virus infections (ARVI) in the Republic of Kazakhstan with the corresponding influenza epidemic in Russia induced by influenza pandemic virus A/California/07/2009 in 2009.Data on influenza and ARVI from the Republic of Kazakhstan and Federal Center of influenza was collected and investigated over the course of several weeks from hospitalized patients with the same diagnosis among all population and in age groups on ...     

The Cold European Winter of 2005–2006 Assisted the Spread and Persistence of H5N1 Influenza Virus in Wild Birds

In January 2006, a major cold spell affected Europe, coinciding with an increase of H5N1 influenza virus detected in wild birds, mostly dead mute swans, starting along the River Danube and the Mediterranean coast line. Subsequently H5N1 detections in wild birds were concentrated in central and western parts of Europe, reaching a peak in mid February. We tested the hypothesis that the geographic distribution of these H5N1 infections was modulated by the long-term wintering line, the 0°C isotherm marking the limit beyond which areas are largely unsuitable for wintering waterfowl. Given the particularly cold 2005–2006 European winter, we also considered the satellite-derived contemporary frost conditions. This brought us to select the long-term maximum rather than the mean January 0°C isotherm as the best approximation for the 2005–2006 wintering line. Our analysis shows that H5N1 detection sites were closer to the wintering line than would be expected by chance, even when the geographic distribution of water bird wintering sites was accounted for. We argue that partial frost conditions in water bodies are conducive to bird congregation, and this may have enhanced H5N1 transmission and local spread. Because the environmental virus load also would build up in these hot spots, H5N1 virus may have readily persisted during the spring, at least in cooler areas. We conclude that H5N1 introduction, spread, and persistence in Europe may have been enhanced by the cold 2005–2006 winter.     

Spatial and Temporal Association of Outbreaks of H5N1 Influenza Virus Infection in Wild Birds with the 0°C Isotherm

Wild bird movements and aggregations following spells of cold weather may have resulted in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) H5N1 in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006. Waterbirds are constrained in winter to areas where bodies of water remain unfrozen in order to feed. On the one hand, waterbirds may choose to winter as close as possible to their breeding grounds in order to conserve energy for subsequent reproduction, and may be displaced by cold fronts. On the other hand, waterbirds may choose to winter in regions where adverse weather conditions are rare, and may be slowed by cold fronts upon their journey back to the breeding grounds, which typically starts before the end of winter. Waterbirds will thus tend to aggregate along cold fronts close to the 0°C isotherm during winter, creating conditions that favour HPAIV H5N1 transmission and spread. We determined that the occurrence of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in waterbirds in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006 was associated with temperatures close to 0°C. The analysis suggests a significant spatial and temporal association of outbreaks caused by HPAIV H5N1 in wild birds with maximum surface air temperatures of 0°C–2°C on the day of the outbreaks and the two preceding days. At locations where waterbird census data have been collected since 1990, maximum mallard counts occurred when average and maximum surface air temperatures were 0°C and 3°C, respectively. Overall, the abundance of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and common pochards (Aythya ferina) was highest when surface air temperatures were lower than the mean temperatures of the region investigated. The analysis implies that waterbird movements associated with cold weather, and congregation of waterbirds along the 0°C isotherm likely contributed to the spread and geographical distribution of outbreaks of HPAIV H5N1 infection in wild birds in Europe during the winter of 2005–2006.     

Influenza virus A (H5N1): a pandemic risk?

Influenza A subtype H5N1 has represented a growing alarm since its recent identification in Asia. Previously thought to infect only wild birds and poultry, H5N1 has now infected humans, cats, pigs and other mammals in an ongoing outbreak, often with a fatal outcome. In order to evaluate the risk factors for human infection with influenza virus H5N1, here we summarize 53 case patients confirmed with H5N1 infection during 2006. The review also compares the mortality rate among human cases from late 2003 until 15 June 2006 in different countries. Neither how these viruses are transmitted to humans nor the most effective way to reduce the risk for infection is fully understood. The association between household contact with diseased poultry in human infection has been demonstrated. This association could possibly operate by 2 mechanisms. First, transmission may be by inhalation or conjunctival deposition of large infectious droplets which may travel only in short distances. Second, having infected poultry in the home and preparation of infected poultry for consumption may result in exposure to higher virus concentrations than other types of exposure. There is so far no significant evidence for repeated human to human transmission, yet some cases of human to human transmission among the family relatives in Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Iraq and Turkey have been described. Recent outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A virus (H5N1 subtype) infections in poultry and humans (through direct contact with infected birds) have raised concerns that a new influenza pandemic might occur in the near future.     

Seasonality of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus in China—Fitting Simple Epidemic Models to Human Cases

Background

Three epidemic waves of influenza A(H7N9) (hereafter ‘H7N9’) human cases have occurred between March 2013 and July 2015 in China. However, the underlying transmission mechanism remains unclear. Our main objective is to use mathematical models to study how seasonality, secular changes and environmental transmission play a role in the spread of H7N9 in China.

Methods

Data on human cases and chicken cases of H7N9 infection were downloaded from the EMPRES-i Global Animal Disease Information System. We modelled on chicken-to-chicken transmission, assuming a constant ratio of 10⁻⁶ human case per chicken case, and compared the model fit with the observed human cases. We developed three different modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered-Susceptible models: (i) a non-periodic transmission rate model with an environmental class, (ii) a non-periodic transmission rate model without an environmental class, and (iii) a periodic transmission rate model with an environmental class. We then estimated the key epidemiological parameters and compared the model fit using Akaike Information Criterion and Bayesian Information Criterion.

Results

Our results showed that a non-periodic transmission rate model with an environmental class provided the best model fit to the observed human cases in China during the study period. The estimated parameter values were within biologically plausible ranges.

Conclusions

This study highlighted the importance of considering secular changes and environmental transmission in the modelling of human H7N9 cases. Secular changes were most likely due to control measures such as Live Poultry Markets closures that were implemented during the initial phase of the outbreaks in China. Our results suggested that environmental transmission via viral shedding of infected chickens had contributed to the spread of H7N9 human cases in China.     

A Two-Year Surveillance of 2009 Pandemic Influenza A (H1N1) in Guangzhou,China: From Pandemic to Seasonal Influenza?

In this two-years surveillance of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) (pH1N1) in Guangzhou, China, we reported here that the scale and duration of pH1N1 outbreaks, severe disease and fatality rates of pH1N1 patients were significantly lower or shorter in the second epidemic year (May 2010-April 2011) than those in the first epidemic year (May 2009-April 2010) (P<0.05), but similar to those of seasonal influenza (P>0.05). Similar to seasonal influenza, pre-existing chronic pulmonary diseases was a risk factor associated with fatal cases of pH1N1 influenza. Different from seasonal influenza, which occurred in spring/summer seasons annually, pH1N1 influenza mainly occurred in autumn/winter seasons in the first epidemic year, but prolonged to winter/spring season in the second epidemic year. The information suggests a tendency that the epidemics of pH1N1 influenza may probably further shift to spring/summer seasons and become a predominant subtype of seasonal influenza in coming years in Guangzhou, China.     

Seroprevalence of Antibodies to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus among Close Contacts Exposed to H5N1 Cases,China, 2005–2008

To assess the extent of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1) virus transmission, we conducted sero-epidemiologic studies among close contacts exposed to H5N1 cases in mainland China during 2005–2008. Blood specimens were collected from 87 household members and 332 social contacts of 23 H5N1 index cases for HPAI H5N1 serological testing by modified horse red-blood-cell hemagglutinin inhibition and microneutralization assays. All participants were interviewed with a standardized questionnaire to collect information about the use of personal protective equipment, illness symptoms, exposure to an H5N1 case during the infectious period, and poultry exposures. Two (2.3%) household contacts tested positive for HPAI H5N1 virus antibody, and all social contacts tested negative. Both seropositive cases had prolonged, unprotected, close contact with a different H5N1 index case, including days of bed-care or sleeping together during the index case’s infectious period, and did not develop any illness. None of the 419 close contacts used appropriate personal protective equipment including 17% who reported providing bedside care or having physical contact with an H5N1 case for at least 12 hours. Our findings suggest that HPAI H5N1 viruses that circulated among poultry in mainland China from 2005–2008 were not easily transmitted to close contacts of H5N1 cases.     

Influenza A H1N1 Pandemic Strain Evolution – Divergence and the Potential for Antigenic Drift Variants

The emergence of a novel A(H1N1) strain in 2009 was the first influenza pandemic of the genomic age, and unprecedented surveillance of the virus provides the opportunity to better understand the evolution of influenza. We examined changes in the nucleotide coding regions and the amino acid sequences of the hemagglutinin (HA), neuraminidase (NA), and nucleoprotein (NP) segments of the A(H1N1)pdm09 strain using publicly available data. We calculated the nucleotide and amino acid hamming distance from the vaccine strain A/California/07/2009 for each sequence. We also estimated P_epitope–a measure of antigenic diversity based on changes in the epitope regions–for each isolate. Finally, we compared our results to A(H3N2) strains collected over the same period. Our analysis found that the mean hamming distance for the HA protein of the A(H1N1)pdm09 strain increased from 3.6 (standard deviation [SD]: 1.3) in 2009 to 11.7 (SD: 1.0) in 2013, while the mean hamming distance in the coding region increased from 7.4 (SD: 2.2) in 2009 to 28.3 (SD: 2.1) in 2013. These trends are broadly similar to the rate of mutation in H3N2 over the same time period. However, in contrast to H3N2 strains, the rate of mutation accumulation has slowed in recent years. Our results are notable because, over the course of the study, mutation rates in H3N2 similar to that seen with A(H1N1)pdm09 led to the emergence of two antigenic drift variants. However, while there has been an H1N1 epidemic in North America this season, evidence to date indicates the vaccine is still effective, suggesting the epidemic is not due to the emergence of an antigenic drift variant. Our results suggest that more research is needed to understand how viral mutations are related to vaccine effectiveness so that future vaccine choices and development can be more predictive.