Predicting potential impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of enchytraeids: a meta-analysis approach

The expectation that atmospheric warming will be most pronounced at higher latitudes means that Arctic and montane systems, with predominantly organic soils, will be particularly influenced by climate change. One group of soil fauna, the enchytraeids, is commonly the major soil faunal component in specific biomes, frequently exceeding above‐ground fauna in biomass terms. These organisms have a crucial role in carbon turnover in organic rich soils and seem particularly sensitive to temperature changes. In order to predict the impacts of climate change on this important group of soil organisms we reviewed data from 44 published papers using a combination of conventional statistical techniques and meta‐analysis. We focused on the effects of abiotic factors on total numbers of enchytraeids (a total of 611 observations) and, more specifically, concentrated on total numbers, vertical distribution and age groupings of the well‐studied species Cognettia sphagnetorum (228 observations). The results highlight the importance of climatic factors, together with vegetation and soil type in determining global enchytraeid distribution; in particular, cold and wet environments with mild summers are consistently linked to greater densities of enchytraeids. Based on the upper temperature distribution limits reported in the literature, and identified from our meta‐analyses, we also examined the probable future geographical limits of enchytraeid distribution in response to predicted global temperature changes using the HadCM3 model climate output for the period between 2010 and 2100. Based on the existing data we identify that a maximum mean annual temperature threshold of 16 °C could be a critical limit for present distribution of field populations, above which their presence would decline markedly, with certain key species, such as C. sphagnetorum, being totally lost from specific regions. We discuss the potential implications for carbon turnover in these organic soils where these organisms currently dominate and, consequently, their future role as C sink/source in response to climate change.     

From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts

Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.     

A multi-modeling approach to evaluating climate and land use change impacts in a Great Lakes River Basin

River ecosystems are driven by linked physical, chemical, and biological subsystems, which operate over different temporal and spatial domains. This complexity increases uncertainty in ecological forecasts, and impedes preparation for the ecological consequences of climate change. We describe a recently developed “multi-modeling” system for ecological forecasting in a 7600 km² watershed in the North American Great Lakes Basin. Using a series of linked land cover, climate, hydrologic, hydraulic, thermal, loading, and biological response models, we examined how changes in both land cover and climate may interact to shape the habitat suitability of river segments for common sport fishes and alter patterns of biological integrity. In scenario-based modeling, both climate and land use change altered multiple ecosystem properties. Because water temperature has a controlling influence on species distributions, sport fishes were overall more sensitive to climate change than to land cover change. However, community-based biological integrity metrics were more sensitive to land use change than climate change; as were nutrient export rates. We discuss the implications of this result for regional preparations for climate change adaptation, and the extent to which the result may be constrained by our modeling methodology.     

Introduction to the symposium: responses of organisms to climate change: a synthetic approach to the role of thermal adaptation

On a global scale, changing climates are affecting ecological systems across multiple levels of biological organization. Moreover, climates are changing at rates unprecedented in recent geological history. Thus, one of the most pressing concerns of the modern era is to understand the biological responses to climate such that society can both adapt and implement measures that attempt to offset the negative impacts of a rapidly changing climate. One crucial question, to understand organismal responses to climate, is whether the ability of organisms to adapt can keep pace with quickly changing environments. To address this question, a syntheses of knowledge from a broad set of biological disciplines will be needed that integrates information from the fields of ecology, behavior, physiology, genetics, and evolution. This symposium assembled a diverse group of scientists from these subdisciplines to present their perspectives regarding the ability of organisms to adapt to changing climates. Specifically, the goals of this symposia were to (1) highlight what each discipline brings to a discussion of organismal responses to climate, (2) to initiate and foster a discussion to break barriers in the transfer of knowledge across disciplines, and (3) to synthesize an approach to address ongoing issues concerning biological responses to climate.     

Disentangling root responses to climate change in a semiarid grassland

Future ecosystem properties of grasslands will be driven largely by belowground biomass responses to climate change, which are challenging to understand due to experimental and technical constraints. We used a multi-faceted approach to explore single and combined impacts of elevated CO₂ and warming on root carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in a temperate, semiarid, native grassland at the Prairie Heating and CO₂ Enrichment experiment. To investigate the indirect, moisture mediated effects of elevated CO₂, we included an irrigation treatment. We assessed root standing mass, morphology, residence time and seasonal appearance/disappearance of community-aggregated roots, as well as mass and N losses during decomposition of two dominant grass species (a C₃ and a C₄). In contrast to what is common in mesic grasslands, greater root standing mass under elevated CO₂ resulted from increased production, unmatched by disappearance. Elevated CO₂ plus warming produced roots that were longer, thinner and had greater surface area, which, together with greater standing biomass, could potentially alter root function and dynamics. Decomposition increased under environmental conditions generated by elevated CO₂, but not those generated by warming, likely due to soil desiccation with warming. Elevated CO₂, particularly under warming, slowed N release from C₄—but not C₃—roots, and consequently could indirectly affect N availability through treatment effects on species composition. Elevated CO₂ and warming effects on root morphology and decomposition could offset increased C inputs from greater root biomass, thereby limiting future net C accrual in this semiarid grassland.     

Conservation strategies to mitigate impacts from climate change in Amazonia

Protected area systems and conservation corridors can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on Amazonian biodiversity. We propose conservation design criteria that will help species survive in situ or adjust range distributions in response to increased drought. The first priority is to protect the western Amazon, identified as the 'Core Amazon', due to stable rainfall regimes and macro-ecological phenomena that have led to the evolution of high levels of biodiversity. Ecotones can buffer the impact from climate change because populations are genetically adapted to climate extremes, particularly seasonality, because high levels of habitat diversity are associated with edaphic variability. Future climatic tension zones should be surveyed for geomorphological features that capture rain or conserve soil moisture to identify potential refugia for humid forest species. Conservation corridors should span environmental gradients to ensure that species can shift range distributions. Riparian corridors provide protection to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Multiple potential altitudinal corridors exist in the Andes, but natural and anthropogenic bottlenecks will constrain the ability of species to shift their ranges and adapt to climate change. Planned infrastructure investments are a serious threat to the potential to consolidate corridors over the short and medium term.     

'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health

Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.     

Community and ecosystem responses to recent climate change

There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the ‘knowns’ but also ‘unknowns’ resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.     

Genetic and plastic responses of a northern mammal to climate change

Climate change is predicted to be most severe in northern regions and there has been much interest in to what extent organisms can cope with these changes through phenotypic plasticity or microevolutionary processes. A red squirrel population in the southwest Yukon, Canada, faced with increasing spring temperatures and food supply has advanced the timing of breeding by 18 days over the last 10 years (6 days per generation). Longitudinal analysis of females breeding in multiple years suggests that much of this change in parturition date can be explained by a plastic response to increased food abundance (3.7 days per generation). Significant changes in breeding values (0.8 days per generation), were in concordance with predictions from the breeder's equation (0.6 days per generation), and indicated that an evolutionary response to strong selection favouring earlier breeders also contributed to the observed advancement of this heritable trait. The timing of breeding in this population of squirrels, therefore, has advanced as a result of both phenotypic changes within generations, and genetic changes among generations in response to a rapidly changing environment.     

Criteria for assessing climate change impacts on ecosystems

There is concern about the potential impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. To address this concern, a large body of literature has developed in which these impacts are assessed. In this study, criteria for conducting reliable and useful assessments of impacts of future climate are suggested. The major decisions involve: clearly defining an emissions scenario; selecting a climate model; evaluating climate model skill and bias; quantifying General Circulation Model (GCM) between-model variability; selecting an ecosystem model and assessing uncertainty; properly considering transient versus equilibrium responses; including effects of CO(2) on plant response; evaluating implications of simplifying assumptions; and considering animal linkage with vegetation. A sample of the literature was surveyed in light of these criteria. Many of the studies used climate simulations that were >10 years old and not representative of best current models. Future effects of elevated CO(2) on plant drought resistance and productivity were generally included in growth model studies but not in niche (habitat suitability) studies, causing the latter to forecast greater future adverse impacts. Overly simplified spatial representation was frequent and caused the existence of refugia to be underestimated. Few studies compared multiple climate simulations and ecosystem models (including parametric uncertainty), leading to a false impression of precision and potentially arbitrary results due to high between-model variance. No study assessed climate model retrodictive skill or bias. Overall, most current studies fail to meet all of the proposed criteria. Suggestions for improving assessments are provided.     

Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles

Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.     

Antarctic nematode communities: observed and predicted responses to climate change

The rapidly changing climate in Antarctica is impacting the ecosystems. Since records began, climate changes have varied considerably throughout Antarctica with both positive and negative trends in temperatures and precipitation observed locally. However, over the course of this century a more directional increase in both temperature and precipitation is expected to occur throughout Antarctica. The soil communities of Antarctica are considered simple with most organisms existing at the edge of their physiological capabilities. Therefore, Antarctic soil communities are expected to be particularly sensitive to climate changes. However, a review of the current literature reveals that studies investigating the impact of climate change on soil communities, and in particular nematode communities, in Antarctica are very limited. Of the few studies focusing on Antarctic nematode communities, long-term monitoring has shown that nematode communities respond to changes in local climate trends as well as extreme (or pulse) events. These results are supported by in situ experiments, which show that nematode communities respond to both temperature and soil moisture manipulations. We conclude that the predicted climate changes are likely to exert a strong influence on nematode communities throughout Antarctica and will generally lead to increasing abundance, species richness, and food web complexity, although the opposite may occur locally. The degree to which local communities respond will depend on current conditions, i.e., average temperatures, soil moisture availability, vegetation or more importantly the lack thereof, and the local species pool in combination with the potential for new species to colonize.     

Penguin responses to climate change in the Southern Ocean

Penguins are adapted to live in extreme environments, but they can be highly sensitive to climate change, which disrupts penguin life history strategies when it alters the weather, oceanography and critical habitats. For example, in the southwest Atlantic, the distributional range of the ice‐obligate emperor and Adélie penguins has shifted poleward and contracted, while the ice‐intolerant gentoo and chinstrap penguins have expanded their range southward. In the Southern Ocean, the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are the main modes of climate variability that drive changes in the marine ecosystem, ultimately affecting penguins. The interaction between these modes is complex and changes over time, so that penguin responses to climate change are expected to vary accordingly, complicating our understanding of their future population processes. Penguins have long life spans, which slow microevolution, and which is unlikely to increase their tolerance to rapid warming. Therefore, in order that penguins may continue to exploit their transformed ecological niche and maintain their current distributional ranges, they must possess adequate phenotypic plasticity. However, past species‐specific adaptations also constrain potential changes in phenology, and are unlikely to be adaptive for altered climatic conditions. Thus, the paleoecological record suggests that penguins are more likely to respond by dispersal rather than adaptation. Ecosystem changes are potentially most important at the borders of current geographic distributions, where penguins operate at the limits of their tolerance; species with low adaptability, particularly the ice‐obligates, may therefore be more affected by their need to disperse in response to climate and may struggle to colonize new habitats. While future sea‐ice contraction around Antarctica is likely to continue affecting the ice‐obligate penguins, understanding the responses of the ice‐intolerant penguins also depends on changes in climate mode periodicities and interactions, which to date remain difficult to reproduce in general circulation models.     

Dispersal and species’ responses to climate change

Dispersal is fundamental in determining biodiversity responses to rapid climate change, but recently acquired ecological and evolutionary knowledge is seldom accounted for in either predictive methods or conservation planning. We emphasise the accumulating evidence for direct and indirect impacts of climate change on dispersal. Additionally, evolutionary theory predicts increases in dispersal at expanding range margins, and this has been observed in a number of species. This multitude of ecological and evolutionary processes is likely to lead to complex responses of dispersal to climate change. As a result, improvement of models of species’ range changes will require greater realism in the representation of dispersal. Placing dispersal at the heart of our thinking will facilitate development of conservation strategies that are resilient to climate change, including landscape management and assisted colonisation. Synthesis This article seeks synthesis across the fields of dispersal ecology and evolution, species distribution modelling and conservation biology. Increasing effort focuses on understanding how dispersal influences species' responses to climate change. Importantly, though perhaps not broadly widely‐recognised, species' dispersal characteristics are themselves likely to alter during rapid climate change. We compile evidence for direct and indirect influences that climate change may have on dispersal, some ecological and others evolutionary. We emphasise the need for predictive modelling to account for this dispersal realism and highlight the need for conservation to make better use of our existing knowledge related to dispersal.     

Response of nitrogen cycling to simulated climate change: differential responses along a subalpine ecotone

In situ nitrogen (N) transformations and N availability were examined over a four‐year period in two soil microclimates (xeric and mesic) under a climate‐warming treatment in a subalpine meadow/sagebrush scrub ecotone. Experimental plots that spanned the two soil microclimates were exposed to an in situ infrared (IR) climate change manipulation at the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, near Crested Butte, Colorado. Although the two microclimates did not differ significantly in their rates of N transformations in the absence of heating, they differed significantly in their response to increased IR. Under a simulated warming in the sagebrush‐dominated xeric microclimate, gross N mineralization rates doubled and immobilization rates increased by up to 60% over the first 2 years of the study but declined to predisturbance rates by the fourth year. This temporal pattern of gross mineralization rates correlated with a decline in SOM. Concurrently, rates of net mineralization rates in the heated plots were 60% higher than the controls after the first year. There were no differences in gross or net nitrification rates with heating in the xeric soils. In contrast to the xeric microclimate, there were no significant effects of heating on any N transformation rates in the mesic microclimate. The differing responses in N cycling rates of the two microclimate to the increased IR is most certainly the result of differences in initial soil moisture conditions and vegetation type and cover.     

Investigating the potential impacts of climate change on a marine turtle population

Recent increases in global temperatures have affected the phenology and survival of many species of plants and animals. We investigated a case study of the effects of potential climate change on a thermally sensitive species, the loggerhead sea turtle, at a breeding location at the northerly extent of the range of regular nesting in the United States. In addition to the physical limits imposed by temperature on this ectothermic species, sea turtle primary sex ratio is determined by the temperature experienced by eggs during the middle third of incubation. We recorded sand temperatures and used historical air temperatures (ATs) at Bald Head Island, NC, to examine past and predict future sex ratios under scenarios of warming. There were no significant temporal trends in primary sex ratio evident in recent years and estimated mean annual sex ratio was 58% female. Similarly, there were no temporal trends in phenology but earlier nesting and longer nesting seasons were correlated with warmer sea surface temperature. We modelled the effects of incremental increases in mean AT of up to 7.5°C, the maximum predicted increase under modelled scenarios, which would lead to 100% female hatchling production and lethally high incubation temperatures, causing reduction in hatchling production. Populations of turtles in more southern parts of the United States are currently highly female biased and are likely to become ultra‐biased with as little as 1°C of warming and experience extreme levels of mortality if warming exceeds 3°C. The lack of a demonstrable increase in AT in North Carolina in recent decades coupled with primary sex ratios that are not highly biased means that the male offspring from North Carolina could play an increasingly important role in the future viability of the loggerhead turtle in the Western Atlantic.