Multiple limit cycles for predator-prey models

We construct a Gause-type predator-prey model with concave prey isocline and (at least) two limit cycles. This serves as a counter-example to the global stability criterion of Hsu [Math. Biosci. 39:1-10 (1978)].     

Why don't predators have positive effects on prey populations?

Summary Three mechanisms by which increasing predation can increase prey population density are discussed: (1) Additional predation on species which have negative effects on the prey; (2) Predation on consumer species whose relationship with their own prey is characterized by a unimodal prey isocline; (3) Predation on species which adaptively balance predation risk and food intake while foraging. Possible reasons are discussed for the rarity of positive effects in previous predator-manipulation studies; these include the short-term nature of experiments, the large magnitudes of predator density manipulation, and various sources of bias in choice of system and interpretation of results.     

Choosing among alternative refuges: Distances and directions

Many prey flee to refuges to escape from approaching predators, but little is known about how they select one among many refuges available. The problem of choice among alternative refuges has not been modeled previously, but a recent model that predicts flight initiation distance (FID = predator–prey distance when escape starts) for a prey fleeing to a refuge provides a basis for predicting which refuge should be chosen. Because fleeing is costly, prey should choose to flee to the refuge permitting the shortest FID. The model predicts that the more distant of two refuges can be favored if it is not too far and if the prey's trajectory to the farther refuge is more away from the predator than the direction to the nearer refuge. The difference in predicted FID between the farther and nearer refuges increases curvilinearly as the interpath angle for the farther refuge increases. The difference in predicted FID between the farther and nearer refuges increases linearly as the distance to the farther refuge increases. An isocline describing where nearer and farther refuges are equally favored shows a negative curvilinear relationship between interpath angle and prey distance to the farther refuge. In the region below the isocline, the farther refuge is favored, whereas above the isocline the prey should flee to the nearer refuge.     

Alternative food, switching predators, and the persistence of predator-prey systems

Sigmoid functional responses may arise from a variety of mechanisms, one of which is switching to alternative food sources. It has long been known that sigmoid (Holling's Type III) functional responses may stabilize an otherwise unstable equilibrium of prey and predators in Lotka-Volterra models. This poses the question of under what conditions such switching-mediated stability is likely to occur. A more complete understanding of the effect of predator switching would therefore require the analysis of one-predator/two-prey models, but these are difficult to analyze. We studied a model based on the simplifying assumption that the alternative food source has a fixed density. A well-known result from optimal foraging theory is that when prey density drops below a threshold density, optimally foraging predators will switch to alternative food, either by including the alternative food in their diet (in a fine-grained environment) or by moving to the alternative food source (in a coarse-grained environment). Analyzing the population dynamical consequences of such stepwise switches, we found that equilibria will not be stable at all. For suboptimal predators, a more gradual change will occur, resulting in stable equilibria for a limited range of alternative food types. This range is notably narrow in a fine-grained environment. Yet, even if switching to alternative food does not stabilize the equilibrium, it may prevent unbounded oscillations and thus promote persistence. These dynamics can well be understood from the occurrence of an abrupt (or at least steep) change in the prey isocline. Whereas local stability is favored only by specific types of alternative food, persistence of prey and predators is promoted by a much wider range of food types.     

Impacts of predation on dynamics of age-structured prey: Allee effects and multi-stability

With a series of mathematical models, we explore impacts of predation on a prey population structured into two age classes, juveniles and adults, assuming generalist, age-specific predators. Predation on any age class is either absent, or represented by types II or III functional responses, in various combinations. We look for Allee effects or more generally for multiple stable steady states in the prey population. One of our key findings is the occurrence of a predator pit (low-density ??refuge?? state of prey induced by predation; the chance of escaping predation thus increases both below and above an intermediate prey density) when only one age class is consumed and predators use a type II functional response ??this scenario is known to occur for an unstructured prey consumed via a type III functional response and can never occur for an unstructured prey consumed via a type II one. In the case where both age classes are consumed by type II generalist predators, an Allee effect occurs frequently, but some parameters give also rise to a predator pit and even three stable equilibria (one extinction equilibrium and two positive ones??Allee effect and predator pit combined). Multiple positive stable equilibria are common if one age class is consumed via a type II functional response and the other via a type III functional response??here, in addition to the behaviours mentioned above one may even observe three stable positive equilibria????double?? predator pit. Some of these results are discussed from the perspective of population management.     

Theoretical dynamics of competitors under predation

Summary Continuous population models of two prey species and a predator were explored by isocline analysis. When predator satiation and substitution between prey (with or without switching) are introduced in the models, many qualitatively different kinds of dynamic behaviour become possible. These depend in a complex but predictable way on competitive relations between prey and on predator feeding behaviour and efficiency. Under constant predation many cases of threshold responses between two or more alternate stable states are possibly; the numerical response of the predator population reduces some of the possibilities.Apparently contradictory community phenomena previously proposed, e.g. prey coexistence versus exclusion by addition of predator, exclusion versus stabilization by addition of alternate prey, are all possible as special cases. A prey which is relatively tolerant to predation can act as a keystone species, on which the existence of other prey species in the community depends, in either a positive or a negative sense. In certain conditions predator-induced obligatory mutualism between two prey species is theoretically possible.To Michael Evenari, pioneer, teacher and friend     

On the role of body size in a tri-trophic metapopulation model

 A particular tri-trophic (resource, prey, predator) metapopulation model with dispersal of preys and predators is considered in this paper. The analysis is carried out numerically, by finding the bifurcations of the equilibria and of the limit cycles with respect to prey and predator body sizes. Two routes to chaos are identified. One is characterized by an intriguing cascade of flip and tangent bifurcations of limit cycles, while the other corresponds to the crisis of a strange attractor. The results are summarized by partitioning the space of body sizes in eight subregions, each one of which is associated to a different asymptotic behavior of the system. Emphasis is put on the possibility of having different modes of coexistence (stationary, cyclic, and chaotic) and/or extinction of the predator population. Received 1 August 1995; received in revised form 8 January     

Competition between juveniles and adults in age-structured populations

The effect of competition between juveniles and adults is examined in a generalized, two-age-class, discrete-time model. Adult fecundity and juvenile survival are functions of both age-class densities. Possible configurations of the zero growth isoclines are examined, giving special attention to the isocline shapes, the number of equilibria, and the manner in which the population approaches these equilibria. It is found that small increases in the density of one age class may have either a positive or a negative effect on recruitment into the other class, depending upon the degree of density dependence in fecundity and survival. Closely allied to this, an increase in the resources for a given age class may result in either an increase or a decrease in its equilibrium density. Strong juvenile-adult competition generally has destabilizing effects on the population's equilibrium, with the system being more sensitive to juveniles competing with adults than to the reverse.     

The dynamic effects of an inducible defense in the Nicholson-Bailey model

We investigate the dynamic effects of an inducible prey defense in the Nicholson-Bailey predator-prey model. We assume that the defense is of all-or-nothing type but that the probability for a prey individual to express the defended phenotype increases gradually with predator density. Compared to a defense that is independent of predation risk, an inducible defense facilitates persistence of the predator-prey system. In particular, inducibility reduces the minimal strength of the defense required for persistence. It also promotes stability by damping predator-prey cycles, but there are exceptions to this result: first, a strong inducible defense leads to the existence of multiple equilibria, and sometimes, to the destruction of stable equilibria. Second, a fast increase in the proportion of defended prey can create predator-prey cycles as the result of an over-compensating negative feedback. Non-equilibrium dynamics of the model are extremely complex.     

The Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model with foraging-predation risk trade-offs

This article studies the effects of adaptive changes in predator and/or prey activities on the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey population dynamics. The model assumes the classical foraging-predation risk trade-offs: increased activity increases population growth rate, but it also increases mortality rate. The model considers three scenarios: prey only are adaptive, predators only are adaptive, and both species are adaptive. Under all these scenarios, the neutral stability of the classical Lotka-Volterra model is partially lost because the amplitude of maximum oscillation in species numbers is bounded, and the bound is independent of the initial population numbers. Moreover, if both prey and predators behave adaptively, the neutral stability can be completely lost, and a globally stable equilibrium would appear. This is because prey and/or predator switching leads to a piecewise constant prey (predator) isocline with a vertical (horizontal) part that limits the amplitude of oscillations in prey and predator numbers, exactly as suggested by Rosenzweig and MacArthur in their seminal work on graphical stability analysis of predator-prey systems. Prey and predator activities in a long-term run are calculated explicitly. This article shows that predictions based on short-term behavioral experiments may not correspond to long-term predictions when population dynamics are considered.     

Modeling direct positive feedback between predators and prey

Predators can have positive impacts on their prey through such mechanisms as nutrient mineralization and prey transport. These positive feedbacks have the potential to change predictions based on food web theory, such as the assertion that enrichment is destabilizing. We present a model of a simple food web, consisting of a resource, a consumer, and its predator. We assume that the predator has a direct positive effect on the consumer, by increasing the rate at which the consumer acquires resources. We consider two cases: the feedback strength is a saturating function of predator density, or it is proportional to the encounter rate between predators and prey. In both cases, the positive feedback is stabilizing, delaying or preventing the onset of oscillations due to enrichment. Positive feedback can introduce an Allee effect for the predator population, yielding multiple stable equilibria. Strong positive feedback can yield counterintuitive results such as a transient increase in consumer density following the introduction of predators, and a decrease in the resource pool following enrichment.     

Generalist and specialist predators that mediate permanence in ecological communities

 General dynamic models of systems with two prey and one or two predators are considered. After rescaling the equations so that both prey have the same intrinsic rate of growth, it is shown that there exists a generalist predator that can mediate permanence if and only if there is a population density of a prey at which its per-capita growth rate is positive yet less than its competitor’s invasion rate. In particular, this result implies that if the outcome of competition between the prey is independent of initial conditions, then there exists a generalist predator that mediates permanence. On the other hand, if the outcome of competition is contingent upon initial conditions (i.e., the prey are bistable), then there may not exist a suitable generalist predator. For example, bistable prey modeled by the Ayala–Gilpin (θ-Logistic) equations can be stabilized if and only if θ<1 for one of the prey. It is also shown that two specialist predators always can mediate permanence between bistable prey by creating a repelling heteroclinic cycle consisting of fixed points and limit cycles. Received 10 August 1996; received in revised form 21 March 1997     

On a predator–prey system of Gause type

In this paper a Gause type model of interactions between predator and prey population is considered. We deal with the sufficient condition due to Kuang and Freedman in the generalized form including a kind of weight function. In a previous paper we proved that the existence of such weight function implies the uniqueness of limit cycle. In the present paper we give a new condition equivalent to the existence of a weight function (Theorem 4.4). As a consequence of our result, it is shown that some simple qualitative properties of the trophic function and the prey isocline ensure the uniqueness of limit cycle.     

Geometric factors influencing the diet of vertebrate predators in marine and terrestrial environments

Predator–prey relationships are vital to ecosystem function and there is a need for greater predictive understanding of these interactions. We develop a geometric foraging model predicting minimum prey size scaling in marine and terrestrial vertebrate predators taking into account habitat dimensionality and biological traits. Our model predicts positive predator–prey size relationships on land but negative relationships in the sea. To test the model, we compiled data on diets of 794 predators (mammals, snakes, sharks and rays). Consistent with predictions, both terrestrial endotherm and ectotherm predators have significantly positive predator–prey size relationships. Marine predators, however, exhibit greater variation. Some of the largest predators specialise on small invertebrates while others are large vertebrate specialists. Prey–predator mass ratios were generally higher for ectothermic than endothermic predators, although dietary patterns were similar. Model‐based simulations of predator–prey relationships were consistent with observed relationships, suggesting that our approach provides insights into both trends and diversity in predator–prey interactions.     

A food chain ecoepidemic model: Infection at the bottom trophic level

In this paper we consider a three level food web subject to a disease affecting the bottom prey. The resulting dynamics is much richer with respect to the purely demographic model, in that it contains more transcritical bifurcations, gluing together the various equilibria, as well as persistent limit cycles, which are shown to be absent in the classical case. Finally, bistability is discovered among some equilibria, leading to situations in which the computation of their basins of attraction is relevant for the system outcome in terms of its biological implications.     

Predicting stability of mixed microbial cultures from single species experiments: 1. Phenomenological model

The growth of mixed microbial cultures on mixtures of substrates is a fundamental problem of both theoretical and practical interest. On the one hand, the literature is abundant with experimental studies of mixed-substrate phenomena [T. Egli, The ecological and physiological significance of the growth of heterotrophic microorganisms with mixtures of substrates, Adv. Microbiol. Ecol. 14 (1995) 305-386]. On the other hand, a number of mathematical models of mixed-substrate growth have been analyzed in the last three decades. These models typically assume specific kinetic expressions for substrate uptake and biomass growth rates and their predictions are formulated in terms of parameters of the model. In this work, we formulate and analyze a general mathematical model of mixed microbial growth on mixtures of substitutable substrates. Using this model, we study the effect of mutual inhibition of substrate uptake rates on the stability of the equilibria of the model. Specifically, we address the following question: How much of the dynamics exhibited by two competing species can be inferred from single species data? We provide geometric criteria for stability of various types of equilibria corresponding to non-competitive exclusion, competitive exclusion, and coexistence of two competing species in terms of growth isoclines and consumption curves. A growth isocline is a curve in the plane of substrate concentrations corresponding to the zero net growth of a given species. In [G.T. Reeves, A. Narang, S.S. Pilyugin, Growth of mixed cultures on mixtures of substitutable substrates: The operating diagram for a structured model, J. Theor. Biol. 226 (2004) 143-157], we introduced consumption curves as sets of all possible combinations of substrate concentrations corresponding to balanced growth of a single microbial species. Both types of curves can be obtained in single species experiments.     

How predator functional responses and Allee effects in prey affect the paradox of enrichment and population collapses

In Rosenzweig-MacArthur models of predator-prey dynamics, Allee effects in prey usually destabilize interior equilibria and can suppress or enhance limit cycles typical of the paradox of enrichment. We re-evaluate these conclusions through a complete classification of a wide range of Allee effects in prey and predator's functional response shapes. We show that abrupt and deterministic system collapses not preceded by fluctuating predator-prey dynamics occur for sufficiently steep type III functional responses and strong Allee effects (with unstable lower equilibrium in prey dynamics). This phenomenon arises as type III functional responses greatly reduce cyclic dynamics and strong Allee effects promote deterministic collapses. These collapses occur with decreasing predator mortality and/or increasing susceptibility of the prey to fall below the threshold Allee density (e.g. due to increased carrying capacity or the Allee threshold itself). On the other hand, weak Allee effects (without unstable equilibrium in prey dynamics) enlarge the range of carrying capacities for which the cycles occur if predators exhibit decelerating functional responses. We discuss the results in the light of conservation strategies, eradication of alien species, and successful introduction of biocontrol agents.     

Oscillations in a size-structured prey-predator model

This article introduces a predator–prey model with the prey structured by body size, based on reports in the literature that predation rates are prey-size specific. The model is built on the foundation of the one-species physiologically structured models studied earlier. Three types of equilibria are found: extinction, multiple prey-only equilibria and possibly multiple predator–prey coexistence equilibria. The stabilities of the equilibria are investigated. Comparison is made with the underlying ODE Lotka–Volterra model. It turns out that the ODE model can exhibit sustain oscillations if there is an Allee effect in the net reproduction rate, that is the net reproduction rate grows for some range of the prey’s population size. In contrast, it is shown that the structured PDE model can exhibit sustain oscillations even if the net reproductive rate is strictly declining with prey population size. We find that predation, even size-non-specific linear predation can destabilize a stable prey-only equilibrium, if reproduction is size specific and limited to individuals of large enough size. Furthermore, we show that size-specific predation can also destabilize the predator–prey equilibrium in the PDE model. We surmise that size-specific predation allows for temporary prey escape which is responsible for destabilization in the predator–prey dynamics.     

The Effects of Predator Evolution and Genetic Variation on Predator–Prey Population-Level Dynamics

This paper explores how predator evolution and the magnitude of predator genetic variation alter the population-level dynamics of predator–prey systems. We do this by analyzing a general eco-evolutionary predator–prey model using four methods: Method 1 identifies how eco-evolutionary feedbacks alter system stability in the fast and slow evolution limits; Method 2 identifies how the amount of standing predator genetic variation alters system stability; Method 3 identifies how the phase lags in predator–prey cycles depend on the amount of genetic variation; and Method 4 determines conditions for different cycle shapes in the fast and slow evolution limits using geometric singular perturbation theory. With these four methods, we identify the conditions under which predator evolution alters system stability and shapes of predator–prey cycles, and how those effect depend on the amount of genetic variation in the predator population. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each method and the relations between the four methods. This work shows how the four methods can be used in tandem to make general predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics and feedbacks.     

Diet choice and predator—prey dynamics

Summary We compare the dynamics of predator-prey systems with specialist predators or adaptive generalist predators that base diet choice on energy-maximizing criteria. Adaptive predator behaviour leads to functional responses that are influenced by the relative abundance of alternate prey. This results in the per capita predation risk being positively density-dependent near points of diet expansion. For a small set of parameter values, systems with adaptive predators can be locally stable whereas systems with specialist predators would be unstable. This occurs mainly when alternate prey have low enough profitability that predators cannot sustain themselves indefinitely when feeding on alternate prey. Local stability of systems with adaptive predator behaviour is inversely related to the goodness of fit to optimal diet choice criteria. Hence, typical patterns of partial prey preference are more stabilizing than perfect optimal diet selection. Locally stable systems with adaptive predators are often globally unstable, converging on limit cycles for many initial population densities. The small range of parameter combinations and initial population densities leading to stable equilibria suggest that adaptive diet selection is unlikely to be a ubiquitous stabilizing factor in trophic interactions.