Investigating patterns and processes of demographic variation: environmental correlates of pre-breeding survival in red-billed choughs Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax

1. Quantifying the pattern of temporal and spatial variation in demography, and identifying the factors that cause this variation, are essential steps towards understanding the structure and dynamics of any population. 2. One critical but understudied demographic rate is pre-breeding survival. We used long-term colour-ringing data to quantify temporal (among-year) and spatial (among-nest site) variation in pre-breeding survival in red-billed choughs (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) inhabiting Islay, Scotland, and identified environmental correlates of this variation. 3. Random-effects capture-mark-recapture models demonstrated substantial temporal and spatial process variance in first-year survival; survival from fledging to age 1 year varied markedly among choughs fledged in different years and fledged from different nest sites. Spatial variance exceeded temporal variance across choughs fledged from well-studied nest sites. 4. The best-supported models of temporal variation suggested that first-year survival was higher in years following high tipulid larvae abundance and when weather conditions favoured increased invertebrate productivity and/or availability to foraging choughs. These variables explained up to 80% of estimated temporal process variance. 5. The best-supported models of spatial variation suggested that first-year survival was higher in choughs fledged from nest sites that were further from exposed coasts and closer to flocking areas, and surrounded by better habitat and higher chough density. These variables explained up to 40% of estimated spatial process variance. 6. Importantly, spatio-temporal models indicated interactive effects of weather, tipulid abundance, local habitat and local chough density on first-year survival, suggesting that detrimental effects of poor weather and low tipulid abundance may be reduced in choughs fledged from nest sites surrounded by better foraging habitat and lower chough density. 7. These analyses demonstrate substantial temporal and small-scale spatial variation in pre-breeding survival, a key demographic rate, and indicate that this variation may reflect interactive effects of weather, prey abundance, habitat and geography. These patterns illustrate the value of holistic models of demographic variation, and indicate environmental factors that may limit the growth rate of Islay's protected chough population.     

Spatio‐temporal variation in European starling reproductive success at multiple small spatial scales

Understanding population dynamics requires spatio‐temporal variation in demography to be measured across appropriate spatial and temporal scales. However, the most appropriate spatial scale(s) may not be obvious, few datasets cover sufficient time periods, and key demographic rates are often incompletely measured. Consequently, it is often assumed that demography will be spatially homogeneous within populations that lack obvious subdivision. Here, we quantify small‐scale spatial and temporal variation in a key demographic rate, reproductive success (RS), within an apparently contiguous population of European starlings. We used hierarchical cluster analysis to define spatial clusters of nest sites at multiple small spatial scales and long‐term data to test the hypothesis that small‐scale spatio‐temporal variation in RS occurred. RS was measured as the number of chicks alive ca. 12 days posthatch either per first brood or per nest site per breeding season (thereby incorporating multiple breeding attempts). First brood RS varied substantially among spatial clusters and years. Furthermore, the pattern of spatial variation was stable across years; some nest clusters consistently produced more chicks than others. Total seasonal RS also varied substantially among spatial clusters and years. However, the magnitude of variation was much larger and the pattern of spatial variation was no longer temporally consistent. Furthermore, the estimated magnitude of spatial variation in RS was greater at smaller spatial scales. We thereby demonstrate substantial spatial, temporal, and spatio‐temporal variation in RS occurring at very small spatial scales. We show that the estimated magnitude of this variation depended on spatial scale and that spatio‐temporal variation would not have been detected if season‐long RS had not been measured. Such small‐scale spatio‐temporal variation should be incorporated into empirical and theoretical treatments of population dynamics.     

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.     

Multiple environmental gradients affect spatial variation in the productivity of a tropical bird population

1. Spatial variation in habitat quality and its demographic consequences have important implications for the regulation of animal populations. Theoretically, habitat quality is typically viewed as a single gradient from 'poor' to 'good', but in wild populations it is possible that there are multiple environmental gradients that determine spatial variation in demography. 2. Understanding environmental gradients is important to gain mechanistic insights into important population processes, but also to understand how populations might respond to environmental change. Here, we explore habitat and elevation gradients and their implications for population persistence using detailed long-term data on 600 individuals of the Mauritius kestrel. These data allow us to statistically separate spatial variation in demography from variation arising out of individual or environmental quality and explore its relationships with habitat and topography. 3. Birds that breed earlier in the season have higher reproductive success, and we found that the timing of breeding varies significantly between territories. This variation is primarily driven by elevation, with birds breeding progressively later as elevation increases. 4. Pre-fledging survival from the egg to fledgling stage (independently of timing), and recruitment, also varied significantly between territories. This variation is driven by the habitat surrounding breeding sites with increasing agricultural encroachment causing survival and recruitment to decline. 5. Taken together, our results suggest that there are likely to be multiple environmental gradients affecting spatial variation in productivity in wild populations, and hence multiple and different routes through which environmental change might have consequences for population dynamics by modifying spatial processes.     

Islands in the sea: extreme female natal site fidelity in the Australian sea lion, Neophoca cinerea

Pinnipeds (seals, fur seals, sea lions and walrus) form large breeding aggregations with females often remaining faithful to a natal site or area. In these cases, females are philopatric to regional areas on broad geographical scales of hundreds to thousands of kilometers. An investigation of variation in a control region sequence of mtDNA in the Australian sea lion (Neophoca cinerea) has shown a case of extreme female natal site fidelity that has resulted in almost fixed population differentiation across its range (PhiST=0.93). This high level of population subdivision over short geographical distances (approx. 60 km) is unparalleled in any social marine mammal and reflects the unique life-history traits of this rare species. The high level of population subdivision and exclusive female natal site fidelity has important ramifications for conservation management, and poses many interesting questions of both academic and applied interest.     

Nest distribution shaping within-stream variation in Atlantic salmon juvenile abundance and competition over small spatial scales

1. Spatial heterogeneity in population density is predicted to have important effects on population characteristics, such as competition intensity and carrying capacity. Patchy breeding distributions will tend to increase spatial heterogeneity in population density, whereas dispersal from breeding patches will tend to decrease it. The potential for dispersal to homogenize densities is likely to differ both among organisms (e.g. plants vs. mobile animals) and throughout ontogeny (e.g. larvae vs. adults). However, for mobile organisms, experimental studies of the importance of breeding distributions from the wild are largely lacking. 2. In the present study, experimental manipulations replicated over eight natural streams and 2 years enabled us to test for effects of the distribution of Atlantic salmon eggs over spatial scales which are relevant to local interactions among individuals. Artificial nests were placed along 250 m study reaches at one of two levels of nest dispersion - patchy (two nests per stream) and dispersed (10 nests per stream) - while holding total egg density (eggs m(-2) stream area) constant. 3. Nest dispersion had significant effects on the spatial distribution of the resulting juveniles in their first summer. Patchy nest distributions resulted in a highly right-skewed frequency distribution of local under-yearling densities (among 25 m sampling sections), as sample sections adjacent to the nest sites had relatively high densities. In contrast, dispersed nest distributions yielded approximately normal density distributions. Sections with high relative densities in the patchy nest distribution treatments also had relatively small juvenile body sizes, and patchy egg distribution appeared to produce a higher redistribution of individuals from the first to the second juvenile growth season than the dispersed distribution. 4. Because patchy breeding distribution combined with limited early dispersal can create spatial variation in density over scales directly relevant for individual interactions, this will be one important component in determining mean levels of early juvenile competition and its spatial variation within populations. Assuming random or ideal-free distribution of individuals may therefore underestimate the mean level of density experienced by juveniles over surprisingly small spatial scales (orders of magnitude smaller than total spatial extent of populations), even for mobile organisms.     

Role of breeding and natal movements in lifetime dispersal of a forest‐dwelling rodent

The lifetime movements of an individual determine the gene flow and invasion potential of the species. However, sex dependence of dispersal and selective pressures driving dispersal have gained much more attention than dispersal at different life and age stages. Natal dispersal is more common than dispersal between breeding attempts, but breeding dispersal may be promoted by resource availability and competition. Here, we utilize mark–recapture data on the nest‐box population of Siberian flying squirrels to analyze lifetime dispersal patterns. Natal dispersal means the distance between the natal nest and the nest used the following year, whereas breeding movements refer to the nest site changes between breeding attempts. The movement distances observed here were comparable to distances reported earlier from radio‐telemetry studies. Breeding movements did not contribute to lifetime dispersal distance and were not related to variation in food abundance or habitat patch size. Breeding movements of males were negatively, albeit not strongly, related to male population size. In females, breeding movement activity was low and was not related to previous breeding success or to competition between females for territories. Natal philopatry was linked to apparent death of a mother; that is, we did not find evidence for mothers bequeathing territories for offspring, like observed in some other rodent species. Our results give an example of a species in which breeding movements are not driven by environmental variability or nest site quality. Different evolutionary forces often operate in natal and breeding movements, and our study supports the view that juveniles are responsible for redistributing individuals within and between populations. This emphasizes the importance of knowledge on natal dispersal, if we want to understand consequences of movement ecology of the species at the population level.     

Odour-based natal nest recognition in the zebra finch (Taeniopygia guttata), a colony-breeding songbird

Passerine birds have an extensive repertoire of olfactory receptor genes. However, the circumstances in which passerine birds use olfactory signals are poorly understood. The aim of this study is to investigate whether olfactory cues play a role in natal nest recognition in fledged juvenile passerines. The natal nest provides fledglings with a safe place for sleeping and parental food provisioning. There is a particular demand in colony-breeding birds for fledglings to be able to identify their nests because many pairs breed close to each other. Olfactory orientation might thus be of special importance for the fledglings, because they do not have a visual representation of the nest site and its position in the colony when leaving the nest for the first time. We investigated the role of olfaction in nest recognition in zebra finches, which breed in dense colonies of up to 50 pairs. We performed odour preference tests, in which we offered zebra finch fledglings their own natal nest odour versus foreign nest odour. Zebra finch fledglings significantly preferred their own natal nest odour, indicating that fledglings of a colony breeding songbird may use olfactory cues for nest recognition.     

Form,function and consequences of density dependence in a long‐distance migratory bird

The density dependence of demographic parameters and its implications for population regulation have long been recognized. Recent work has revealed potential effects of density on mating systems and sexual selection, but few studies concurrently assess the consequences of density on both demography and sexual selection. Such an approach is important because population processes and individual behaviors can interact to influence population growth and evolutionary trajectories. In this study, we tested the density dependence of breeding success, extra‐pair paternity, and the opportunity for sexual selection in a population of American redstarts Setophaga ruticilla using two different measures of density. To evaluate temporal patterns, we analyzed annual territory density, based on the total number of territories at our study site each year. To evaluate spatial patterns, we analyzed local territory density within years, based on the number of territories surrounding a focal territory. Greater annual density was associated with fewer offspring fledged per female, a reduced mean population rate of fledging success, and a lower relative contribution of extra‐pair paternity to male fitness. Greater local density was associated with fewer offspring fledged, reduced fledgling success, higher rates of nest loss, and higher rates of paternity loss on focal territories. Interestingly, greater local density was also associated with greater nestling mass on focal territories, which could imply that more densely‐packed territories contain superior resources. Overall, our results suggest that the effects of crowding via greater territory density reduce fecundity through increased nest predation, rather than reduced food availability, and increase rates of extra‐pair paternity. Thus, the selective pressures faced by individuals and their reproductive behaviors are likely to differ based on the annual and local density they experience, which may then feed back into population demography.     

Costs and benefits of natal dispersal in yearling mallards Anas platyrhynchos

Costs and benefits of natal dispersal have not been fully evaluated in birds. We compared timing of breeding and nesting success for yearling female mallards Anas platyrhynchos returning to or dispersing from their natal areas. Information about natal origins was discerned with feather‐isotopes and combined with detailed reproductive histories for 503 radio‐marked females monitored at 16 study sites across the Canadian Aspen Parklands, during 1993–2000. A natal origin assignment model based on feather‐ δ³⁴S, δD, δ¹⁵N, and δ¹³C values correctly assigned 81% (112 of 138) of known‐source yearlings to region of origin; region‐specific rates ranged from 70–90%. Timing of breeding and nesting success was not related to whether or not a female had dispersed from its region of natal origin in Aspen Parkland (i.e. short‐distance dispersal) versus the southern prairies or boreal forest regions (i.e. long‐distance dispersal). Rather, nesting success was best modeled to include effects of site‐specific wetland and breeding pair abundances and an interaction between local breeding pair and wetland densities. Nest success performance relative to dispersal distance varied among study sites but was unrelated to local upland nest cover, wetland habitat conditions, or conspecific density. Thus, we detected no strong costs of dispersal but some evidence that long‐distance dispersers presumably benefitted when they were able to acquire better nest sites.     

Cooperative enhancement of reproductive success in white-winged choughs

Summary White-winged choughs are a cooperatively breeding species which provide parental care to their young over an entire year. I traced the reproductive success of groups of white-winged choughs from the start of one breeding season to the next over 3 years. I examined the effect of helper number on timing of breeding, the success of each effort, the number of efforts made in a season, and the final reproductive success at the end of each year. Timing of commencement of breeding varied between years but was not related to group size. Early broods were not more successful than late broods. Nest building (July–September) commenced earlier in years which had high rainfall in July; choughs rely on rainfall for supplies of mud for nest construction. Most nest failures occurred gradually and were attributed to starvation of nestlings, although some sudden failures were attributed to predation. Large groups have more young by the beginning of the following season; this is due to higher fledging success and a greater likelihood of having second broods. Disappearance of young after fledging and during the transition to independence was not dependent on group size. Only groups of seven and above produce more than one young on average over the entire year; choughs provide one of the most marked cases for helpers enhancing the reproductive success of breeders. Large groups are virtually guaranteed of reproductive success over the whole year and grow more quickly than small groups. These results highlight the need to consider the effect of helpers over the entire period of reproduction and care of young, rather than just at fledging.     

Fine-scale genetic structure and its consequence in breeding aggregations of a passerine bird

The pattern of fine-scale genetic structure in a population may reflect current biological processes of the species, such as natal dispersal, the breeding system and demography. We investigated the spatial distribution of nests and fine-scale genetic structure during two breeding seasons in a population of a weakly territorial, flock-living passerine bird, the vinous-throated parrotbill, Paradoxornis webbianus . Nest distribution was clustered. There were two peaks of egg laying within each breeding season, and spatial clustering of nests was more extreme during the second peak after controlling for breeding density. The patterns of genetic structure during the breeding season varied with parental sex and season. Genetic structure occurred during the second laying peak: males breeding within 200 m of one another at this time were significantly more closely related than males breeding farther apart. However, no apparent genetic structure was detected in males during the first laying peak or among females in either laying peak. These results reveal male-oriented kin affiliation during part of the breeding season in this species. Furthermore, juvenile recruitment into the winter flocks was positively related to this increased relatedness among males via kin affiliation. This study implies that fine-scale genetic structure during the breeding season could be a factor determining individual fitness and may play an important role in our understanding of the evolution of social systems.     

Impact of human activities on the reproduction of Hooded Vultures Necrosyrtes monachus in Burkina Faso

During the last decades, the critically endangered Hooded Vulture Necrosyrtes monachus has strongly declined across its African range. Although direct persecution has been suggested as a major cause of this decline, little is known about the impact of humans on reproductive output in West Africa. We studied the impact of human activities on the reproductive output of Hooded Vultures in the Garango area of Burkina Faso. Twenty and 56 nesting attempts were monitored, respectively, during the breeding season in 2013/14 and 2014/15, to determine reproductive success and identify causes of nest failure. Annual breeding success varied between 0.68 and 0.71 chicks fledged per breeding pair per year and productivity was assessed at 0.57 chicks fledged per territorial pair in 2014/15. The main threats imposed by humans were poaching of eggs, chicks and collection of nest materials, leading to 20% (13 out of 64 breeding attempts) of nest failures over the two years. An additional important reason for nest failure was the pruning and (partial) cutting of nest trees. Despite this high level of human interference, we found that Hooded Vulture nest success increased with proximity to human settlements, probably because breeding vultures benefit from protection by people against persecution and disturbance.     

Space use by Great Lakes Piping Plovers during the breeding season

ABSTRACT.   Identifying and protecting breeding habitat for imperiled species requires an understanding of the spatial and temporal movements of breeding individuals. During the 2003 and 2004 breeding seasons, we examined space use by Piping Plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) in the federally endangered Great Lakes population. We used coordinate geometry to estimate home range sizes of individual birds and examined relationships between home range size and breeding stage (incubation versus chick rearing), year, sex, number of locations, minimum plover age, distance to the nearest nest, and human beach use (high, medium, or low). The mean size of home ranges of Piping Plovers that fledged at least one chick was 2.9 ± 0.5 (SE) ha (range = 0.4–11.2 ha), and the mean linear beach distance traversed was 475 ± 53 m (range = 130–1435 m). Individuals used 3 times more beach area and 1.5 times more shoreline distance in 2003 than in 2004. Females used smaller areas than males overall and during chick rearing. Home ranges were smallest on beaches with low public use, suggesting that human disturbance may cause greater movement by individual plovers and that larger protected areas may be warranted on beaches frequented by the public to minimize disturbance to breeding birds. Our results demonstrate that nesting Great Lakes Piping Plovers occupy relatively small ranges and, therefore, that even relatively small areas of suitable habitat can have a high conservation value for this endangered population. However, the total area of habitat used varied substantially among individuals, and this should be considered when protecting habitat for the species.     

Annual and seasonal reproductive trends in the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos minor

Annual and seasonal variation in reproductive timing and performance were studied in a population of the Lesser Spotted Woodpecker Dendrocopos minor over 10 years in southern Sweden. The median laying date of the first egg varied by up to 17 days between years, being generally larger than the variation of laying dates within years. Neither clutch size, brood size in successful nests, fledging success in successful nests nor mean nestling weight differed significantly between years. There was no trend for mean clutch size to vary between early and late years. In spite of a more than threefold variation in population size, no reproductive variable demonstrated an apparent density-dependence. Within the season, clutch size declined steeply with increasing clutch initiation date, whereas fledging success and nesting success did not, leading to a trend in brood size almost identical to the trend in clutch size. The survival prospects of fledged young declined with increasing clutch initiation date, and it is argued that the clutch size laid is a strategic adjustment to laying date. Out of 124 breeding attempts, 34% did not produce fledged young. In 9% of the breeding attempts, pairs laid no eggs. At least 20% of the breeding attempts failed after egg-laying. The most common cause of breeding failure was loss of the breeding partner followed by nest abandonment (40% of the failures). Only 16–28% of the failures were due to predation on the nest. Most complete failures, and also partial losses from nests, occurred at the early breeding stages. It is argued that the early nestling phase may be a critical stage, which the woodpeckers adjust to coincide with the seasonal food peak, explaining the strikingly late breeding season compared with other non-migrant species.     

The presence of kleptoparasitic fledglings is associated with a reduced breeding success in the host family in the barn owl

Fledgling birds sometimes abandon their own nest and move to neighboring nests where they are fed by host parents. This behaviour, referred to as ‘nest‐switching’, is well known in precocial birds that are mobile soon after hatching and can easily reach foster nests. In contrast, due to the difficulty of observing nest‐switching in territorial altricial birds, the causes and consequences of moving to others’ nests are poorly known in this group of birds. Nest‐switchers can be adopted by the foster parents or they can steal food from the host parents meant for their offspring, a form of kleptoparasitism, which may result in reduced breeding success of the host nest. In Israel, 12 barn owl fledglings left their natal nests and were found in 9 host nests out of 111 monitored nests (8.1%). Nest‐switchers that fledged earlier in the breeding season flew shorter distances to reach host nests probably because the density of nests with younger nestlings is higher early in the season. The number of host nestlings fledged and the percentage of nestlings fledged was lower in host nests than in nests without switchers. The occasional nest‐switchers were always older than host nestlings (respectively 80 and 50 days of age, on average) and host parents fledged fewer young when nest‐switchers occupied host nests with younger nestlings. This suggests that nest‐switchers are kleptoparasites because the presence of the older alien fledglings is associated with a lower breeding success of the host parents.     

Affinity for natal environments by dispersers impacts reproduction and explains geographical structure of a highly mobile bird

Understanding dispersal and habitat selection behaviours is central to many problems in ecology, evolution and conservation. One factor often hypothesized to influence habitat selection by dispersers is the natal environment experienced by juveniles. Nonetheless, evidence for the effect of natal environment on dispersing, wild vertebrates remains limited. Using 18 years of nesting and mark–resight data across an entire North American geographical range of an endangered bird, the snail kite (Rostrhamus sociabilis), we tested for natal effects on breeding-site selection by dispersers and its consequences for reproductive success and population structure. Dispersing snail kites were more likely to nest in wetlands of the same habitat type (lacustrine or palustrine) as their natal wetland, independent of dispersal distance, but this preference declined with age and if individuals were born during droughts. Importantly, dispersing kites that bred in natal-like habitats had lower nest success and productivity than kites that did not. These behaviours help explain recently described population connectivity and spatial structure across their geographical range and reveal that assortative breeding is occurring, where birds are more likely to breed with individuals born in the same wetland type as their natal habitat. Natal environments can thus have long-term and large-scale effects on populations in nature, even in highly mobile animals.     

Spatial heterogeneity in mortality and its impact on the population dynamics of Eurasian woodcocks

Spatial heterogeneity, especially in mortality risk, is a major factor shaping population dynamics. Here we study the impacts of spatial heterogeneity in hunting pressure on the demography of Eurasian woodcock Scolopax rusticola, a relatively long-lived migratory game bird. We develop capture–recapture–recovery models in which both seasonality and spatial variation in hunting pressure are accounted for, and fit them to individual-based data collected across the French wintering range (>44000 banded individuals) as well as recoveries from spring stopovers and breeding grounds in Europe. Our results quantify spatial variation in survival probability in the wintering areas. They highlight the role of source-sink dynamics involving juvenile settlement decisions, as well as the importance of mortality outside the winter quarters. We also discuss the impact of spatial heterogeneity for demographic parameter estimation and data collection at the range scale.     

Large-scale spatial variation in the breeding performance of song thrushes Turdus philomelos and blackbirds T. merula in Britain

1.  Spatial variation in breeding performance is of critical importance in understanding the large-scale distribution and abundance of living species, and in understanding species conservation. We studied the large-scale spatial variation in reproductive output of two species of declining British bird, the song thrush Turdus philomelos and the blackbird Turdus merula .
2.  We developed a method to predict spatial variation in reproductive output. Brood size and nest failure rates during the incubation and nestling periods were related to environmental factors using generalized linear models. Predicted values obtained from these models were combined to give values of number of fledglings produced per nesting attempt for 10-km squares throughout Britain.
3.  We observed substantial spatial variation in reproductive output for both species; the component that varied most was nest failure rate during incubation. We were more successful in relating environmental factors to spatial variation in reproductive output for song thrush than for blackbird.
4.  Reproductive output in both species was affected mainly by factors that vary on a small spatial scale. Nest failure rate during incubation increased significantly where corvids were more abundant, suggesting a role for avian nest predators in determining spatial variation in reproductive output.
5.  Our approach can be extended readily to other species of birds, to other taxonomic groups and to finer spatial scales. Such models could be used to evaluate the implications of current and proposed wider countryside management for spatial variation in breeding performance. Evaluations based on breeding success as well as numbers are likely to be more robust than those based solely on abundance.     

Variation in probability of first reproduction of Weddell seals

1. For many species, when to begin reproduction is an important life-history decision that varies by individual and can have substantial implications for lifetime reproductive success and fitness. 2. We estimated age-specific probabilities of first-time breeding and modelled variation in these rates to determine age at first reproduction and understand why it varies in a population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multistate mark-recapture modelling methods and encounter histories of 4965 known-age female seals to test predictions about age-related variation in probability of first reproduction and the effects of annual variation, cohort and population density. 3. Mean age at first reproduction in this southerly located study population (7.62 years of age, SD=1.71) was greater than age at first reproduction for a Weddell seal population at a more northerly and typical latitude for breeding Weddell seals (mean=4-5 years of age). This difference suggests that age at first reproduction may be influenced by whether a population inhabits the core or periphery of its range. 4. Age at first reproduction varied from 4 to 14 years, but there was no age by which all seals recruited to the breeding population, suggesting that individual heterogeneity exists among females in this population. 5. In the best model, the probability of breeding for the first time varied by age and year, and the amount of annual variation varied with age (average variance ratio for age-specific rates=4.3%). 6. Our results affirmed the predictions of life-history theory that age at first reproduction in long-lived mammals will be sensitive to environmental variation. In terms of life-history evolution, this variability suggests that Weddell seals display flexibility in age at first reproduction in order to maximize reproductive output under varying environmental conditions. Future analyses will attempt to test predictions regarding relationships between environmental covariates and annual variation in age at first reproduction and evaluate the relationship between age at first reproduction and lifetime reproductive success.