Untangling associations between chironomid taxa in Neotropical streams using local and landscape filters

1. Analyses of species association have major implications for selecting indicators for freshwater biomonitoring and conservation, because they allow for the elimination of redundant information and focus on taxa that can be easily handled and identified. These analyses are particularly relevant in the debate about using speciose groups (such as the Chironomidae) as indicators in the tropics, because they require difficult and time‐consuming analysis, and their responses to environmental gradients, including anthropogenic stressors, are poorly known. 2. Our objective was to show whether chironomid assemblages in Neotropical streams include clear associations of taxa and, if so, how well these associations could be explained by a set of models containing information from different spatial scales. For this, we formulated a priori models that allowed for the influence of local, landscape and spatial factors on chironomid taxon associations (CTA). These models represented biological hypotheses capable of explaining associations between chironomid taxa. For instance, CTA could be best explained by local variables (e.g. pH, conductivity and water temperature) or by processes acting at wider landscape scales (e.g. percentage of forest cover). 3. Biological data were taken from 61 streams in Southeastern Brazil, 47 of which were in well‐preserved regions, and 14 of which drained areas severely affected by anthropogenic activities. We adopted a model selection procedure using Akaike’s information criterion to determine the most parsimonious models for explaining CTA. 4. Applying Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, seven genera (Tanytarsus/Caladomyia, Ablabesmyia, Parametriocnemus, Pentaneura, Nanocladius, Polypedilum and Rheotanytarsus) were identified as associated taxa. The best‐supported model explained 42.6% of the total variance in the abundance of associated taxa. This model combined local and landscape environmental filters and spatial variables (which were derived from eigenfunction analysis). However, the model with local filters and spatial variables also had a good chance of being selected as the best model. 5. Standardised partial regression coefficients of local and landscape filters, including spatial variables, derived from model averaging allowed an estimation of which variables were best correlated with the abundance of associated taxa. In general, the abundance of the associated genera tended to be lower in streams characterised by a high percentage of forest cover (landscape scale), lower proportion of muddy substrata and high values of pH and conductivity (local scale). 6. Overall, our main result adds to the increasing number of studies that have indicated the importance of local and landscape variables, as well as the spatial relationships among sampling sites, for explaining aquatic insect community patterns in streams. Furthermore, our findings open new possibilities for the elimination of redundant data in the assessment of anthropogenic impacts on tropical streams.     

The Finnish forest site type approach: ordination and classification studies of mesic forest sites in southern Finland

A.K. Cajander's forest site type classification system is based on definition of plant communities typical to certain climatical and edaphical site conditions, but the structure and composition of the tree stands in Finland are considered sensitive to random variation and are therefore not used as primary classification criteria. The system has often received criticism, usually that the effects of the tree stand and successional stage of the stand have been underestimated. Most of the present-day forest stands in Finland represent young successional stages and are subjected to intensive management. This should result in an additional difficulty in the application of the forest site types in the field.The present study is based on three independent data sets representing forests on mineral soil in southern part of Finland. TWINSPAN classification, DCA ordination and canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) techniques were applied in successive stages of the data analysis. It was found that the definition of the intermediately fertile, mesic site types was clearly confused by the effects of the tree species and age of the stand. The analyses also revealed that the succession pathways on mesic forest sites are largely determined by the tree species composition. In stands dominated by Pinus sylvestris, the succession follows the competitive hierarchy model, whereas in stands dominated by Picea abies, severe shading of the tree canopy governs the development of understorey vegetation.Abbreviations CCA Canonical correspondence Analysis - DCA Detrended correspondence Analysis - TWINSPAN Two-way indicator species analysis     

A mid‐Pleistocene rainforest corridor enabled synchronous invasions of the Atlantic Forest by Amazonian anole lizards

Shifts in the geographic distribution of habitats over time can promote dispersal and vicariance, thereby influencing large‐scale biogeographic patterns and ecological processes. An example is that of transient corridors of suitable habitat across disjunct but ecologically similar regions, which have been associated with climate change over time. Such connections likely played a role in the assembly of tropical communities, especially within the highly diverse Amazonian and Atlantic rainforests of South America. Although these forests are presently separated by open and dry ecosystems, paleoclimatic and phylogenetic evidence suggest that they have been transiently connected in the past. However, little is known about the timing, magnitude and the distribution of former forest connections. We employ sequence data at multiple loci from three codistributed arboreal lizards (Anolis punctatus, Anolis ortonii and Polychrus marmoratus) to infer the phylogenetic relationships among Amazonian and Atlantic Forest populations and to test alternative historical demographic scenarios of colonization and vicariance using coalescent simulations and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). Data from the better‐sampled Anolis species support colonization of the Atlantic Forest from eastern Amazonia. Hierarchical ABC indicates that the three species colonized the Atlantic Forest synchronously during the mid‐Pleistocene. We find support of population bottlenecks associated with founder events in the two Anolis, but not in P. marmoratus, consistently with their distinct ecological tolerances. Our findings support that climatic fluctuations provided key opportunities for dispersal and forest colonization in eastern South America through the cessation of environmental barriers. Evidence of species‐specific histories strengthens assertions that biological attributes play a role in responses to shared environmental change.     

Pathways of stand development in ageing Pinus sylvestris forests

Question: What are the main pathways of long‐term stand development in forest ecosystems on oligotrophic and acidic sandy soils? Location: Nine forest reserves at different locations in The Netherlands; all ageing Pinus sylvestris forests that are no longer managed and where massive regeneration of broad‐leaved species is often reported. Methods: Agglomerative cluster analysis was used to define structural classes from forest reserve data. Sequences of structural classes, representing different trajectories of stand development, were constructed with the aid of a process based gap model. Results: Four main pathways of stand development could be distinguished. Three pathways are linked to gap dynamics, and lead towards dominance of Betula, Quercus or Fagus. They differ in light availability for regeneration and/or seed tree availability. The fourth pathway comprises of development patterns after major disturbances. Conclusions: The new methodological approach, combining the empirical strength of forest reserve data with the predictive ability of a process based model, made it possible to detail and quantify insights into structure and dynamics of forests on poor sandy soils. Some factors not included in the study can substantially influence pathways, especially those where Quercus and Fagus potentially play an important role.     

Assessing ecological habitat structure from local to landscape scales using synthetic aperture radar

Ecological studies need accurate environmental data such as vegetation characterization, landscape structure and organization, to predict and explain the spatial distribution of biodiversity. Few ecological studies use remote sensing data to assess the biophysical or structural properties of vegetation to understand species distribution. To date, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data have seldom been used for ecological applications. However, these sensors provide data allowing access to the inner structure of vegetation which is a key information in ecology. The objective of this article is to compare the predictive power of ecological habitat structure variables derived from a TerraSAR-X image, an aerial photograph and a SPOT-5 image for species distribution. The test was run with a hedgerow network in Brittany and assessed the spatial distribution of the forest ground carabid beetles which inhabit these hedgerows. The results confirmed that radar and optical images can be indifferently used to extract hedgerow network and derived landscape metrics (hedgerow density, network grain) useful to explain the spatial distribution of forest carabid beetles. In comparison with passive optical remotely sensed data, VHSR SAR images provide new data to characterize vegetation structure and more particularly hedgerow canopy cover, a variable known to explain the spatial distribution of carabid beetles in an agricultural landscape, but not yet quantified at a fine scale. The hedgerow canopy cover derived from the SAR image is a strong predictor of the abundance of forest carabid beetles at two scales i.e., a local scale and a landscape scale.     

Spatial analysis of structural and tree‐ring related parameters in a timberline forest in the Italian Alps

Abstract. We investigated the variability in spatial pattern of some structural, dendrochronological and dendroclimatological features of a mixed Larix decidua‐Pinus cembra forest at the timberline in the eastern Italian Alps at fine geographical and temporal scales. Forest structure variables such as stem diameter, tree height, age and tree‐ring related parameters (yearly growth index, mean sensitivity, first order autocorrelation and some dendroclimatic variables) have been compared at various scale levels. We observed that most of the variables show positive autocorrelated structures due to both forest dynamics and fine‐scale driving forces, probably related to microrelief. Spatial structure of yearly indexed radial growth appears sensitive to extreme climatic events. Secondary succession after past disturbances drives the forest towards a structure governed by a gap regeneration dynamics that seems to ensure the different requirements of the two main tree species present. Small spatial scale studies of forest structures, especially if integrated to dendro‐ecological data, seem an efficient tool to assess the disturbance regime and species sensitivity to environmental change.     

湖南省阳明山山顶苔藓矮林优势种空间分布格局

山顶苔藓矮林是亚热带山地常绿阔叶林区在极端气候与环境条件下发育的一种群落变型,通过研究优势植物的分布格局与规模,可以有效地指导植被保护与管理活动。在湖南阳明山国家级自然保护区的山顶苔藓矮林区设置3个样地,应用相邻格子法对优势种云锦杜鹃(Rhododendron fortunei)进行每木调查,在不同取样尺度(面积)上采用方差/均值比率法(v/m)、负二项参数(k)、丛生指数(I)、平均拥挤度(m~*)、聚块性指数(m~*/m)、聚集指数(C_a)和格林指数(GI)等聚集强度指数对云锦杜鹃种群分布格局进行分析。结果表明:阳明山山顶苔藓矮林优势种云锦杜鹃种群在北、南、东三个方位上的空间分布格局总体上为聚集分布,随着取样尺度的增大,聚集格局强度和规模依次减弱;而山顶苔藓矮林优势种群不同年龄阶段的空间分布特征为随着种群年龄的增大,其空间分布格局呈聚集强向聚集弱、以至于向随机分布发展;阳明山山顶苔藓矮林优势种群及其分布格局形成的主要原因是云锦杜鹃种群本身的种子繁殖及传播方式和类营养繁殖等生物学特性及方位、坡向等环境因子影响所致。     

Using structural sustainability for forest health monitoring and triage: Case study of a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)-impacted landscape

Heavy disturbance-induced mortality can negatively impact forest biota, functions, and services by drastically altering the forest structures that create stable environmental conditions. Disturbance impacts on forest structure can be assessed using structural sustainability⿿the degree of balance between living and dead portions of a tree population⿿s size-class distribution⿿which is the basis of baseline mortality analysis. This analysis uses a conditionally calibrated reference level (i.e., baseline mortality) against which to detect significant mortality deviations without need for historical references. Recently, a structural sustainability index was developed by parameterizing results of this analysis to allow spatial and temporal comparisons within or among forested landscapes. The utility of this index as a tool for forest health monitoring programs and triage decisions has not been examined. Here, we investigated this utility by retrospectively analyzing the structural sustainability of a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae)-impacted, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta)-dominated landscape annually from 2000 to 2006 as well as among watersheds. We show that temporal patterns of structural sustainability at the landscape-level reflect accumulating beetle-induced mortality as well as beetle-lodgepole pine ecology. At the watershed-level, this sustainability spatially varied with 2006 beetle-induced mortality. Further, structural sustainability satisfies key criteria for effective indicators of ecosystem change. We conclude that structural sustainability is a viable tool upon which to base or supplement forest health monitoring and triage programs, and could potentially increase the efficacy of such programs under current and future climate change-associated disturbance patterns.     

中国东北森林生长演替模拟模型及其在全球变化研究中的应用

 NEWCOP模型是一个新的适于模拟东北森林的种类组成动态的林窗类计算机模拟模型,它通过模拟在每一个林分斑块上的每株树木的更新、生长和死亡的全过程来反映森林群落的中长期生长和演替动态。由于 NEWCOP模型是一个由气候变量驱动的生态系统模型,故可用于评价气候变化对东北森林生长和演替的影响。在东北大兴安岭、小兴安岭和长白山地区对NEWCOP模型进行了验证和校准。沿环境梯度对NEWCOP模型的数字模拟实验表明：它能准确地再现顶极森林中树种组成及其在东北地区的垂直分布规律和水平分布规律;能准确地再现大兴安岭、小兴安岭和长白山的主要类型森林的生长和演替规律;在一定的场合NEWCOP还可反映林分的径级结构;NEWCOP模型还具有对现有森林的跟踪模拟能力。应用NEWCOP模型评估了东北森林生态系统对可能气候变化的敏感性。在GFDL 2×CO2和GISS 2×CO2气候变化情景下,东北森林的种类组成将发生很大变化,落叶阔叶树将取代目前长白山、小兴安岭的红松(Pinus koraiensis)和大兴安岭的兴安落叶松(Larix gmelinii)成为东北森林主要树种,而针叶树将在地带性森林中占很小的比重,阔叶树中蒙古栎(Quercus mongolica)将是最重要的树种,它将成为小兴安岭和大兴安岭最主要树种;东北地区适于森林生长的区域将大幅度减少,这些变化主要发生在气候变化过渡期。东北森林对不同的气候变化情景有不同响应。但是,总的趋势是未来东北森林中落叶阔叶树的比重将大幅度增加。这些结论对在全球气候变化背景下,我国东北合理地选择造林树种和制定现有森林的保护经营策略具有一定参考价值。     

Statistical analysis for the spatial validity of a model to forecast the daily number of forest fires

In earlier papers a qualitative and quantitative model was developed for predicting the number of forest fires occurring per day. This model permits the forecast at 00.00 hours Universal Time Convention (UTC) of any day (d), the number of forest fires per day for a range of several days (d tod+5) over a particular region. Input data are the number of forest fires in the region during two preceding days (d–2 andd–1) and the type of day (real and evaluated from radiosonde ford–2,d–1,d and predicted from meteorological medium-range forecasts, i.e. of European Centre, ford+1,d+2,d+3,d+4 andd+5. As this model requires data obtained by radiosonde, particularly temperatures and geopotentials at 850 and 700 hPa and dew points (or specific humidity) at 850 hPa, this study investigates the spatial validity of the model in relation to the distance from the radiosonde station (RS). The highest quality forecast is obtained for the region immediately surrounding the RS, and diminishes with increasing distance from it, this being due to the data obtained from the RS not being representative of the atmospheric column over the region. Hence, the derivation of the critical distance for a particular quality level of measurement. Conversely, fixed quality level implies a specific separation between RS and the region for the prediction, with a higher predictive quality implying a shorter distance.     

Structural characteristics and canopy dynamics of Tsuga canadensis in forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA

Tsuga canadensis (L.) Carr. forests of the southern Appalachian Mountains are currently facing imminent decline induced by a nonnative insect pest, the hemlock woolly adelgid (Adelges tsugae Annand). To effectively manage these forest systems now and in the future, land managers need baseline data on forest structure and dynamics prior to large-scale Tsuga canadensis mortality. Most of our knowledge concerning the dynamics of Tsuga canadensis forests comes from more northern locations such as the Great Lakes region and New England and, therefore, may not pertain to the ecological systems found within the southern Appalachian Mountains. We examined the structure and canopy dynamics of four Tsuga canadensis forest stands within the Cataloochee watershed, in the far eastern part of Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP). We characterized the environmental settings and vertical forest layers, as well as the diameter and age-structures of each Tsuga canadensis forest stand. These environmental and structural data showed that there were indeed differences between forest stands with and without successful Tsuga canadensis regeneration. The two forest stands exhibiting successful Tsuga canadensis regeneration were located above 1,000 m in elevation on well-drained, moderately steep slopes and had the greatest canopy openness. Structural data from these two forest stands indicated a history of more continuous Tsuga canadensis regeneration. We also constructed disturbance chronologies detailing the history of canopy response to disturbance events and related these to Tsuga canadensis regeneration within each forest stand. Student t-tests adjusted for unequal variances indicated significant differences in the number of release events per tree between forest stands with and without successful Tsuga canadensis regeneration. While forest stands with successful Tsuga canadensis regeneration were more frequently disturbed by minor to major canopy disturbances, events of moderate intensity were found to be most significant in terms of regeneration. These data will be of value to land managers maintaining stands of Tsuga canadensis where treatment for hemlock woolly adelgid infestation has been successful. In areas where treatment is impractical or unsuccessful, land managers will be able to use these data to restore Tsuga canadensis forests after the wave of hemlock woolly adelgid induced mortality has passed. As of August 2008, Joshua A. Kincaid will be a member of the Environmental Studies program at Shenandoah University in Winchester, Virginia, USA     

Forest carbon storage along the north-south transect of eastern China: Spatial patterns,allocation, and influencing factors

Forests play an important role in sequestrating atmospheric CO₂; therefore, understanding the spatial variations and controlling mechanisms of forest carbon (C) storage is important. In this study, we collected data on forest C storage along a north-south transect of eastern China from literature published between 2004 and 2014. The collected data, which were from over 2000 plots, allowed us to explore the latitudinal patterns in forest C storage. The results showed that vegetation C storage decreased with increasing latitude, while soil C storage increased. This spatial pattern of vegetation C storage was more apparent for mature forests (forest age > 80 years). Furthermore, latitudinal patterns in forest C storage, both in vegetation and in soil, became stronger with increasing statistical scale, increasing from plot scale to latitudinal scale (2–5°). However, total forest C storage (vegetation + soil) had no apparent latitudinal pattern. Interestingly, the allocation ratios of forest C storage between vegetation and soil had a negative logarithmic relationship with latitude. These results suggest that in eastern China, climatic factors control latitudinal patterns in the forest C storage of vegetation and soil, albeit in different ways (positive for vegetation and negative for soil), and also control the allocation ratios of forest C storage between vegetation and soil. Furthermore, the latitudinal patterns of forest C storage were opposite for vegetation and soil, resulting from the different climatic controlling mechanism.     

A computer model of succession and fire response of the high-altitude Eucalyptus forest of the Brindabella Range,Australian Capital Territory

The BRIND model, a computer model of the high altitude forests in the Brindabella Range near Canberra (Australian Capital Territory), is documented and the results of a series of tests on the model are provided. The BRIND model simulates a 1/12 ha forest stand by computing the growth of each individual tree in the stand. It considers establishment and death of trees on a tree-by-tree basis using stochastic functions. The model also simulates the effects of prescribed fire and wildfire on the forests. The model presently is restricted to southeasterly facing slopes (moist, sheltered situations) above 850 m in altitude. The BRIND model is tested in four ways: (1) A single example simulation (for 500years) is inspected for agreement with stand dynamics in wet sclerophyll forests. (2) By varying wildfire frequency, the model is used to develop a succession diagram for forests in the alpine ash (E. delegatensis) zone of the Brindabella Range. This diagram is considered in terms of the successional patterns described for this ecological zone. (3) By subjecting the model to different climatic conditions and wildfire frequencies, a simulated altitude zonation is developed. This simulated pattern of forest types is compared with the extant forest types in the Brindabella Range. (4) The model is tested on its ability to duplicate basal area, stocking density, and average diameters for different age stands found in an independent data set. The model was found to simulate patterns of vegetation that resemble those of the forests of the Brindabella Range in both space and time. The successional pattern was found to be complex and to differ from classic theories of succession originating with Clements. Potential model applications are discussed     

Predicting tree death for Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba using permanent plot data

Question: How well can mortality probabilities of deciduous trees(Fagus sylvatica) and conifers (Abies alba) be predicted using permanent plot data that describe growth patterns, tree species, tree size and site conditions? Location: Fagus forests in the montane belt of the Jura folds (Switzerland). Method: Permanent plot data were used to develop and validate logistic regression models predicting survival probabilities of individual trees. Backward model selection led to a reduced model containing the growth‐related variable ‘relative basal area increment’ (growth‐dependent mortality) and variables not directly reflecting growth such as species, size and site (growth‐independent mortality). Results: The growth‐mortality relationship was the same for both species (growth‐dependent mortality). However, species, site and tree size also influenced mortality probabilities (growth‐independent mortality). The predicted survival probabilities of the final model were well calibrated, and the model showed an excellent discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.896). Conclusion: Mortality probabilities of Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba can be predicted with high discriminatory power using a well calibrated logistic regression model. Extending this case study to a larger number of tree species and sites could provide species‐ and site‐specific tree mortality models that allow for more realistic projections of forest succession.     

A vegetation map of tropical continental Asia at scale 1:5 million

Abstract. A vegetation map at scale 1:5 million is presented. * * Attached on the inside of this issue's back cover.
It covers Bangladesh, Burma (Myanmar), India, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand, Vietnam and Sri Lanka and fills a conspicuous gap in the cartography of tropical vegetation, following the publication of vegetation maps of South America, Africa and Malaysia. For conformity, it is presented as one sheet at a scale of 1:5 million. It uses the basic map of the American Geographical Society (1942; bipolar oblique conformal projection) which forms the base for FAO's Soil map of the world. Basic information was obtained from many published maps, unpublished observations and satellite data. The limits of the main vegetation types have been updated with a complete set of Landsat MSS images (369 scenes) with a mosaic of Landsat TM data for 1991 and with recent forest maps from Asia. Nine main vegetation units, which are groups of forest formations, have been identified and mapped, including woodlands, thickets and wooded savannas. Agricultural land has been shown in a uniform pale green colour in order to clearly express the extent of human impacts on woody vegetation. In spite of the necessary oversimplification of the ground data, this map is probably the most explicit expression of the remaining forest stands and of the regression of natural vegetation in the region. It can be considered as a benchmark for future monitoring of tropical vegetation.     

Spatial patterns at host and forest stand scale and population regulation of the pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa

相似文献   

Simulating harvesting scenarios towards the sustainable use of mangrove forest plantations

Mangrove forests appear among the most productive ecosystems on earth and provide important goods and services to tropical coastal populations. Thirty-five percent of mangrove forest areas have been lost worldwide in the last two decades. Management measures could be an option to combine human use and conservation of mangroves. These measures can be improved if their impacts are assessed before they are performed. By doing so, the best management option out of a set of all potential options can be selected in advance. The mangrove model—KiWi—has been proven to be suitable for analyzing mangrove forest dynamics in the neotropics. Here, the model was applied to mangrove management scenarios. For this, the model was parameterized to Rhizophora apiculata, one of the most common mangrove species planted in Asia for timber production. It is thus the first simulation model describing Asian mangrove plantations. The recently developed Pattern Oriented Modelling approach was used to find those parameters fitting best density patterns and dbh (diameter at breast height) size classes reported in literature. The results demonstrated that the KiWi model was able to: (1) reproduce the growth patterns of a mono-specific plantation of R. apiculata in terms of forest density and size class distribution and (2) can provide criteria for the selection of a thinning strategy within a harvesting cycle.     

Correlations among vegetation strata and environmental variables in subalpine spruce-fir forests,southeastern British Columbia

A set of forest vegetation-environment data consisting of 110 plots from subalpine spruce-fir forests in southeastern British Columbia was analyzed with multivariate methods. The aims were to describe and compare relationships among plots using species composition data from four strata of the forest (trees, shrubs, herbs, bryophytes), and to compare patterns in the separate strata with patterns in the environmental data. Weak but statistically significant correlations were detected among PCA axes from all four strata, with a tendency for correlations to be stronger between axes of adjacent strata. Relationships between stratal patterns and environmental variation were examined by correlating PCA axes with environmental variables separately, and jointly with canonical correlation analysis. Linear composites of the environmental data identified by the first canonical axis were similar for shrub, herb, and bryophyte strata implying similar responses to environmental variation in understorey strata; however, < 16% of the total variance was explained. No clear relationships emerged between tree stratum and environmental variation. Probable determinants of pattern in the tree stratum include historical events such as fire and winter snowpack, as well as possible interactions between species. Collectively, these events bear little resemblance to existing environmental conditions in the forest.Nomenclature used by BCMF follows Crum, Steere & Anderson (1973), Hale & Culberson (1970), and Stottler & Crandall-Stottler (1977) for non-vascular plants, and Taylor & MacBryde (1977) for vascular plants.The British Columbia Ministry of Forests provided the data on which this paper is based, as well as a grant to pay for the computer time used. We are grateful to G. Utzig for initially suggesting that a project of this nature be done, and to S. Phelps for helping with the retrieval of computer data files from tape. This paper has greatly benefited from discussions with P. Comeau and R. K. Scagel, and the comments of two anonymous reviewers.     

Detecting human impact in the pollen record using data-model comparison

Palaeoecological data are compared with output from climate-driven forest simulation models to separate human influence as a driver of vegetation dynamics from other drivers such as climatic change. The transition from Tilia cordata to Fagus sylvatica dominance in a small forest hollow in Denmark was not predicted by a climate-driven forest simulation model and could be ascribed to anthropogenic impact. This transition can be upscaled to a large region of north-west Europe and contributes to a data-model mismatch for the European distribution of Fagus 6,000 years ago. A data-model mismatch for Picea abies during the last few centuries in southern Scandinavia can also be attributed to anthropogenic impact. Combining pollen data and vegetation models can help with the important task of upscaling from the scale of the forest stand, where anthropogenic impact is readily detectable, to regions and continents, where it is more challenging to distinguish anthropogenic impact from the impacts of climatic change.     

Latitudinal patterns of forest ecosystem stability across spatial scales as affected by biodiversity and environmental heterogeneity

Our planet is facing a variety of serious threats from climate change that are unfolding unevenly across the globe. Uncovering the spatial patterns of ecosystem stability is important for predicting the responses of ecological processes and biodiversity patterns to climate change. However, the understanding of the latitudinal pattern of ecosystem stability across scales and of the underlying ecological drivers is still very limited. Accordingly, this study examines the latitudinal patterns of ecosystem stability at the local and regional spatial scale using a natural assembly of forest metacommunities that are distributed over a large temperate forest region, considering a range of potential environmental drivers. We found that the stability of regional communities (regional stability) and asynchronous dynamics among local communities (spatial asynchrony) both decreased with increasing latitude, whereas the stability of local communities (local stability) did not. We tested a series of hypotheses that potentially drive the spatial patterns of ecosystem stability, and found that although the ecological drivers of biodiversity, climatic history, resource conditions, climatic stability, and environmental heterogeneity varied with latitude, latitudinal patterns of ecosystem stability at multiple scales were affected by biodiversity and environmental heterogeneity. In particular, α diversity is positively associated with local stability, while β diversity is positively associated with spatial asynchrony, although both relationships are weak. Our study provides the first evidence that latitudinal patterns of the temporal stability of naturally assembled forest metacommunities across scales are driven by biodiversity and environmental heterogeneity. Our findings suggest that the preservation of plant biodiversity within and between forest communities and the maintenance of heterogeneous landscapes can be crucial to buffer forest ecosystems at higher latitudes from the faster and more intense negative impacts of climate change in the future.