Conceptualizing ecosystem tipping points within a physiological framework

Connecting the nonlinear and often counterintuitive physiological effects of multiple environmental drivers to the emergent impacts on ecosystems is a fundamental challenge. Unfortunately, the disconnect between the way “stressors” (e.g., warming) is considered in organismal (physiological) and ecological (community) contexts continues to hamper progress. Environmental drivers typically elicit biphasic physiological responses, where performance declines at levels above and below some optimum. It is also well understood that species exhibit highly variable response surfaces to these changes so that the optimum level of any environmental driver can vary among interacting species. Thus, species interactions are unlikely to go unaltered under environmental change. However, while these nonlinear, species‐specific physiological relationships between environment and performance appear to be general, rarely are they incorporated into predictions of ecological tipping points. Instead, most ecosystem‐level studies focus on varying levels of “stress” and frequently assume that any deviation from “normal” environmental conditions has similar effects, albeit with different magnitudes, on all of the species within a community. We consider a framework that realigns the positive and negative physiological effects of changes in climatic and nonclimatic drivers with indirect ecological responses. Using a series of simple models based on direct physiological responses to temperature and ocean pCO₂, we explore how variation in environment‐performance relationships among primary producers and consumers translates into community‐level effects via trophic interactions. These models show that even in the absence of direct mortality, mismatched responses resulting from often subtle changes in the physical environment can lead to substantial ecosystem‐level change.     

Population responses within a landscape matrix: a macrophysiological approach to understanding climate change impacts

Global environmental change (GEC) is a significant concern. However, forecasting the outcomes of this change for species and ecosystems remains a major challenge. In particular, predicting specific changes in systems where initial conditions, instabilities, and model errors have large impacts on the outcome is problematic. Indeed, predictive community ecology has been deemed unworthy of pursuit or an unreachable goal. However, new developments in large-scale biology provide ways of thinking that might substantially improve forecasts of local and regional impacts of climate change. Most notably, these are the explicit recognition of the regional and landscape contexts within which populations reside, the matrix approach that can be used to investigate the consequences of population variation across space and within assemblages, and the development of macrophysiology, which explicitly seeks to understand the ecological implications of physiological variation across large spatial and temporal scales. Here we explore how a combination of these approaches might promote further understanding and forecasting of the effects of global climate change and perhaps other GEC drivers on biodiversity. We focus on the population level, examining the ways in which environmental variation might be translated through performance and its plasticity to variation in demography.     

Environmental factors predict adaptive phenotypic differentiation within and between two wild Andean tomatoes

Environmental variation is widely viewed as a major force driving morphological change and speciation. Although many environmental attributes are potentially critical for adaptive responses within and between species, the individual and relative importance of these diverse attributes remain poorly understood. Here we combine a geographical information systems (GIS)-based analysis of environmental variation with a multipopulation analysis of phenotypic, physiological, and genetic variation, to generate and test hypotheses of environmental factors likely driving adaptive divergence within and between two wild Andean plant species. First, we document large environmental differences between population locations of the two species, and among regions within species. Second, we show evidence for inter- and intraspecific differences in genetically based phenotypic and physiological variation. Third, combining these data, we report evidence for trait-environment associations both among populations within species, and between species, that are strongly indicative of recent and rapid adaptive responses. Finally, we show that these trait-environment associations cannot be simply explained by genetic relatedness within species, reinforcing our inference that local, regional, and species-wide environmental conditions are responsible for phenotypic and physiological diversification. The strongest trait-environment associations involve temperature and precipitation gradients, suggesting these climatic factors are predominant drivers of adaptive diversification in these species.     

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long‐term life‐history data in seven species

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long‐term, large‐scale, and cross‐taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large‐scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large‐scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long‐term life‐history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29–52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates.     

Evolution of time-keeping mechanisms: early emergence and adaptation to photoperiod

Virtually all species have developed cellular oscillations and mechanisms that synchronize these cellular oscillations to environmental cycles. Such environmental cycles in biotic (e.g. food availability and predation risk) or abiotic (e.g. temperature and light) factors may occur on a daily, annual or tidal time scale. Internal timing mechanisms may facilitate behavioural or physiological adaptation to such changes in environmental conditions. These timing mechanisms commonly involve an internal molecular oscillator (a 'clock') that is synchronized ('entrained') to the environmental cycle by receptor mechanisms responding to relevant environmental signals ('Zeitgeber', i.e. German for time-giver). To understand the evolution of such timing mechanisms, we have to understand the mechanisms leading to selective advantage. Although major advances have been made in our understanding of the physiological and molecular mechanisms driving internal cycles (proximate questions), studies identifying mechanisms of natural selection on clock systems (ultimate questions) are rather limited. Here, we discuss the selective advantage of a circadian system and how its adaptation to day length variation may have a functional role in optimizing seasonal timing. We discuss various cases where selective advantages of circadian timing mechanisms have been shown and cases where temporarily loss of circadian timing may cause selective advantage. We suggest an explanation for why a circadian timing system has emerged in primitive life forms like cyanobacteria and we evaluate a possible molecular mechanism that enabled these bacteria to adapt to seasonal variation in day length. We further discuss how the role of the circadian system in photoperiodic time measurement may explain differential selection pressures on circadian period when species are exposed to changing climatic conditions (e.g. global warming) or when they expand their geographical range to different latitudes or altitudes.     

Environmental quality and evolutionary potential: lessons from wild populations

An essential requirement to determine a population's potential for evolutionary change is to quantify the amount of genetic variability expressed for traits under selection. Early investigations in laboratory conditions showed that the magnitude of the genetic and environmental components of phenotypic variation can change with environmental conditions. However, there is no consensus as to how the expression of genetic variation is sensitive to different environmental conditions. Recently, the study of quantitative genetics in the wild has been revitalized by new pedigree analyses based on restricted maximum likelihood, resulting in a number of studies investigating these questions in wild populations. Experimental manipulation of environmental quality in the wild, as well as the use of naturally occurring favourable or stressful environments, has broadened the treatment of different taxa and traits. Here, we conduct a meta-analysis on recent studies comparing heritability in favourable versus unfavourable conditions in non-domestic and non-laboratory animals. The results provide evidence for increased heritability in more favourable conditions, significantly so for morphometric traits but not for traits more closely related to fitness. We discuss how these results are explained by underlying changes in variance components, and how they represent a major step in our understanding of evolutionary processes in wild populations. We also show how these trends contrast with the prevailing view resulting mainly from laboratory experiments on Drosophila. Finally, we underline the importance of taking into account the environmental variation in models predicting quantitative trait evolution.     

Hybridization in human evolution: Insights from other organisms

During the late Pleistocene, isolated lineages of hominins exchanged genes thus influencing genomic variation in humans in both the past and present. However, the dynamics of this genetic exchange and associated phenotypic consequences through time remain poorly understood. Gene exchange across divergent lineages can result in myriad outcomes arising from these dynamics and the environmental conditions under which it occurs. Here we draw from our collective research across various organisms, illustrating some of the ways in which gene exchange can structure genomic/phenotypic diversity within/among species. We present a range of examples relevant to questions about the evolution of hominins. These examples are not meant to be exhaustive, but rather illustrative of the diverse evolutionary causes/consequences of hybridization, highlighting potential drivers of human evolution in the context of hybridization including: influences on adaptive evolution, climate change, developmental systems, sex‐differences in behavior, Haldane's rule and the large X‐effect, and transgressive phenotypic variation.     

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests,Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south‐eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent . After superimposing the present‐day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre‐ and post‐deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre‐ and post‐deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large‐scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra‐specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present‐day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra‐specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.     

A general multi-trait-based framework for studying the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning

Environmental change is as multifaceted as are the species and communities that respond to these changes. Current theoretical approaches to modeling ecosystem response to environmental change often deal only with single environmental drivers or single species traits, simple ecological interactions, and/or steady states, leading to concern about how accurately these approaches will capture future responses to environmental change in real biological systems. To begin addressing this issue, we generalize a previous trait-based framework to incorporate aspects of frequency dependence, functional complementarity, and the dynamics of systems composed of species that are defined by multiple traits that are tied to multiple environmental drivers. The framework is particularly well suited for analyzing the role of temporal environmental fluctuations in maintaining trait variability and the resultant effects on community response to environmental change. Using this framework, we construct simple models to investigate two ecological problems. First, we show how complementary resource use can significantly enhance the nutrient uptake of plant communities through two different mechanisms related to increased productivity (over-yielding) and larger trait variability. Over-yielding is a hallmark of complementarity and increases the total biomass of the community and, thus, the total rate at which nutrients are consumed. Trait variability also increases due to the lower levels of competition associated with complementarity, thus speeding up the rate at which more efficient species emerge as conditions change. Second, we study systems in which multiple environmental drivers act on species defined by multiple, correlated traits. We show that correlations in these systems can increase trait variability within the community and again lead to faster responses to environmental change. The methodological advances provided here will apply to almost any function that relates species traits and environmental drivers to growth, and should prove useful for studying the effects of climate change on the dynamics of biota.     

Continental‐scale determinants of population trends in European amphibians and reptiles

The continuous decline of biodiversity is determined by the complex and joint effects of multiple environmental drivers. Still, a large part of past global change studies reporting and explaining biodiversity trends have focused on a single driver. Therefore, we are often unable to attribute biodiversity changes to different drivers, since a multivariable design is required to disentangle joint effects and interactions. In this work, we used a meta‐regression within a Bayesian framework to analyze 843 time series of population abundance from 17 European amphibian and reptile species over the last 45 years. We investigated the relative effects of climate change, alien species, habitat availability, and habitat change in driving trends of population abundance over time, and evaluated how the importance of these factors differs across species. A large number of populations (54%) declined, but differences between species were strong, with some species showing positive trends. Populations declined more often in areas with a high number of alien species, and in areas where climate change has caused loss of suitability. Habitat features showed small variation over the last 25 years, with an average loss of suitable habitat of 0.1%/year per population. Still, a strong interaction between habitat availability and the richness of alien species indicated that the negative impact of alien species was particularly strong for populations living in landscapes with less suitable habitat. Furthermore, when excluding the two commonest species, habitat loss was the main correlate of negative population trends for the remaining species. By analyzing trends for multiple species across a broad spatial scale, we identify alien species, climate change, and habitat changes as the major drivers of European amphibian and reptile decline.     

Colour polymorphism is associated with lower extinction risk in birds

Colour polymorphisms have played a major role in enhancing current understanding of how selection and demography can impact phenotypes. Because different morphs often display alternative strategies and exploit alternative ecological niches, colour polymorphism can be expected to promote adaptability to environmental changes. However, whether and how it could influence populations' and species' response to global changes remains debated. To address this question, we built an up‐to‐date and complete database on avian colour polymorphism based on the examination of available data from all 10,394 extant bird species. We distinguished between true polymorphism (where different genetically determined morphs co‐occur in sympatry within the same population) and geographic variation (parapatric or allopatric colour variation), because these two patterns of variation are expected to have different consequences on populations' persistence. Using the IUCN red list, we then showed that polymorphic bird species are at lesser risk of extinction than nonpolymorphic ones, after controlling for a range of factors such as geographic range size, habitat breadth, life history, and phylogeny. This appears consistent with the idea that high genetic diversity and/or the existence of alternative strategies in polymorphic species promotes the ability to adaptively respond to changing environmental conditions. In contrast, polymorphic species were not less vulnerable than nonpolymorphic ones to specific drivers of extinction such as habitat alteration, direct exploitation, climate change, and invasive species. Thus, our results suggest that colour polymorphism acts as a buffer against environmental changes, although further studies are now needed to understand the underlying mechanisms. Developing accurate quantitative indices of sensitivity to specific threats is likely a key step towards a better understanding of species response to environmental changes.     

Pattern and process: evidence for the evolution of photosynthetic traits in natural populations

The patterns of interspecific variation identified by comparative studies provide valuable hypotheses about the role of physiological traits in evolutionary adaptation. This review covers tests of these hypotheses for photosynthetic traits that have used a microevolutionary perspective to characterize physiological variation among and within populations. Studies of physiological differentiation among populations show that evolutionary divergence in photosynthetic traits is common within species, and has a pattern that supports many adaptive hypotheses. These among-population studies imply that selection has influenced photosynthetic traits in some way, but they are not designed to identify the traits targeted by selection or the environmental agents that cause selection. Analyses of genetic and phenotypic variation within populations address these questions. Studies that have quantified genetic variation within populations show that levels of heritable variation can be adequate for evolutionary change in photosynthetic traits. Other studies have measured phenotypic selection for these traits by analyzing how the variation within populations is correlated with fitness. This work has shown that selection for photosynthetic traits may often operate indirectly via correlations with other traits, and emphasizes the importance of viewing the phenotype as an integrated function of growth, morphology, life-history and physiology. We also outline some methodological problems that may be encountered for ecophysiological traits by these types of studies, provide some potential solutions, and discuss future directions for the field of plant evolutionary ecophysiology.     

Cumulative weather effects can impact across the whole life cycle

Predicting how species will be affected by future climatic change requires the underlying environmental drivers to be identified. As vital rates vary over the lifecycle, structured population models derived from statistical environment–demography relationships are often used to inform such predictions. Environmental drivers are typically identified independently for different vital rates and demographic classes. However, these rates often exhibit positive temporal covariance, suggesting that vital rates respond to common environmental drivers. Additionally, models often only incorporate average weather conditions during a single, a priori chosen time window (e.g. monthly means). Mismatches between these windows and the period when the vital rates are sensitive to variation in climate decrease the predictive performance of such approaches. We used a demographic structural equation model (SEM) to demonstrate that a single axis of environmental variation drives the majority of the (co)variation in survival, reproduction, and twinning across six age–sex classes in a Soay sheep population. This axis provides a simple target for the complex task of identifying the drivers of vital rate variation. We used functional linear models (FLMs) to determine the critical windows of three local climatic drivers, allowing the magnitude and direction of the climate effects to differ over time. Previously unidentified lagged climatic effects were detected in this well‐studied population. The FLMs had a better predictive performance than selecting a critical window a priori, but not than a large‐scale climate index. Positive covariance amongst vital rates and temporal variation in the effects of environmental drivers are common, suggesting our SEM–FLM approach is a widely applicable tool for exploring the joint responses of vital rates to environmental change.     

Ecology,environment and evolutionary history influence genetic structure in five mammal species from the Italian Alps

The identification and evaluation of the ecological and environmental factors shaping patterns of natural genetic variation are fundamental goals of population and conservation genetics. Many studies focus on factors affecting single species, but it is also important to test whether some influential biotic and abiotic factors are common drivers of genetic diversity across species, or if species or species groups are each affected by different forces; a multi‐species analysis is necessary for this. Here we analysed the molecular variation from five mammal species (roe deer, red deer, chamois, mountain hare and European brown hare) at mtDNA and microsatellite loci from the eastern Italian Alps. We use phylogeographical and landscape‐level analyses to test the relative influence of large‐scale geographical history and contemporary environmental characteristics of the landscape on genetic diversity and differentiation. We found: (1) all study species except brown hare are strongly differentiated into two main groups, located west and east of a major river valley; (2) significant correlations between levels of within‐population diversity at both mtDNA and microsatellite loci, and several landscape features such as alpine grassland, water courses and anthropized areas. We conclude that heterogeneous landscape has some influence on within‐population diversity, but biogeographical history has probably had the stronger influence on current genetic patterns, despite an apparently large dispersal potential of certain species. However, our results for brown hare show that management actions such as stocking may alter these large‐scale patterns.     

Adaptation genomics: the next generation

Understanding the genetics of how organisms adapt to changing environments is a fundamental topic in modern evolutionary ecology. The field is currently progressing rapidly because of advances in genomics technologies, especially DNA sequencing. The aim of this review is to first briefly summarise how next generation sequencing (NGS) has transformed our ability to identify the genes underpinning adaptation. We then demonstrate how the application of these genomic tools to ecological model species means that we can start addressing some of the questions that have puzzled ecological geneticists for decades such as: How many genes are involved in adaptation? What types of genetic variation are responsible for adaptation? Does adaptation utilise pre-existing genetic variation or does it require new mutations to arise following an environmental change?     

Trait-based approaches to conservation physiology: forecasting environmental change risks from the bottom up

Trait-based approaches have long been a feature of physiology and of ecology. While the latter fields drifted apart in the twentieth century, they are converging owing at least partly to growing similarities in their trait-based approaches, which have much to offer conservation biology. The convergence of spatially explicit approaches to understanding trait variation and its ecological implications, such as encapsulated in community assembly and macrophysiology, provides a significant illustration of the similarity of these areas. Both adopt trait-based informatics approaches which are not only providing fundamental biological insights, but are also delivering new information on how environmental change is affecting diversity and how such change may perhaps be mitigated. Such trait-based conservation physiology is illustrated here for each of the major environmental change drivers, specifically: the consequences of overexploitation for body size and physiological variation; the impacts of vegetation change on thermal safety margins; the consequences of changing net primary productivity and human use thereof for physiological variation and ecosystem functioning; the impacts of rising temperatures on water loss in ectotherms; how hemisphere-related variation in traits may affect responses to changing rainfall regimes and pollution; and how trait-based approaches may enable interactions between climate change and biological invasions to be elucidated.     

Problems with using large‐scale oceanic climate indices to compare climatic sensitivities across populations and species

To understand which populations and species are most sensitive to climate change, studies correlate time series of climate variables with those of traits important for population dynamics, and subsequently compare which aspects of a species’ ecology or life‐history best explain variation in climate sensitivity. Often large‐scale oceanic climate indices (LOCIs) are used as a proxy for local climatic drivers, with many studies reporting geographic gradients in climate sensitivity to LOCIs (e.g. suggesting that species living further from the equator are relatively climate sensitive). However, the relationship between LOCIs and local weather variables also varies geographically, raising the possibility that apparent intra‐ and inter‐specific differences in climate sensitivity to LOCIs could also reflect geographic variation in how well LOCIs function as a proxy for local climatic drivers. This hypothesis is rarely tested due to lack of knowledge about the specific local climatic drivers. Here we show, using reproductive and climate data from 16 long‐term population studies of 7 Australian fairy‐wren species (Malurus genus), that the use of LOCIs can result in 1) strong overestimation of the amount of inter‐specific variation in climate sensitivity and 2) spurious patterns, particularly geographic gradients. Consequently a paradox emerges: LOCIs often explain much of the temporal variation in traits important for population dynamics, but the common usage of LOCIs may prevent meaningful intra‐ and inter‐specific comparisons of climate sensitivities over large spatial scales. Our results thus may offer an alternative interpretation of the widely reported geographic gradients in sensitivity to LOCIs. Future progress will likely require better knowledge about the identity and temporal features of local environmental drivers of population dynamics.     

Carnivora Population Dynamics Are as Slow and as Fast as Those of Other Mammals: Implications for Their Conservation

Of the 285 species of Carnivora 71 are threatened, while many of these species fulfill important ecological roles in their ecosystems as top or meso-predators. Population transition matrices make it possible to study how age-specific survival and fecundity affect population growth, extinction risks, and responses to management strategies. Here we review 38 matrix models from 35 studies on 27 Carnivora taxa, covering 11% of the threatened Carnivora species. We show that the elasticity patterns (i.e. distribution over fecundity, juvenile survival and adult survival) in Carnivora cover the same range in triangular elasticity plots as those of other mammal species, despite the specific place of Carnivora in the food chain. Furthermore, reproductive loop elasticity analysis shows that the studied species spread out evenly over a slow-fast continuum, but also quantifies the large variation in the duration of important life cycles and their contributions to population growth rate.These general elasticity patterns among species, and their correlation with simple life history characteristics like body mass, age of first reproduction and life span, enables the extrapolation of population dynamical properties to unstudied species. With several examples we discuss how this slow-fast continuum, and related patterns of variation in reproductive loop elasticity, can be used in the formulation of tentative management plans for threatened species that cannot wait for the results of thorough demographic studies. We argue, however, that such management programs should explicitly include a plan for learning about the key demographic rates and how these are affected by environmental drivers and threats.     

Character displacement: in situ evolution of novel phenotypes or sorting of pre‐existing variation?

Character displacement - the divergence of traits between species in response to competition for resources or mates - has long been viewed as a major cause of adaptive diversification and species coexistence. Yet, we lack answers to basic questions concerning the causes and consequences of character displacement, not the least of which is why some species are more prone than others to undergo character displacement. Here, we address these questions by describing how character displacement can proceed through two nonexclusive routes that differ in the source of phenotypic variation, and, hence, in the ease with which character displacement may unfold. During in situ evolution of novel phenotypes, new traits that are divergent from a heterospecific competitor are generated and spread in sympatry. During sorting of pre-existing variation, such traits are initially favoured in allopatry before the two species encounter one another. Later, when they come into contact, character displacement transpires when these pre-existing divergent phenotypes increase in frequency in sympatry relative to allopatry. Because such sorting of pre-existing variation should unfold relatively rapidly, we suggest that species that express resource or mating polymorphism prior to interactions with heterospecifics may be more prone to undergo character displacement. We discuss the key differences between these two routes, review possible examples of each, and describe how the distinction between them provides unique insights into the evolutionary consequences of species interactions, the origins of diversity, and the factors that govern species coexistence.     

Environmental drivers interactively affect individual tree growth across temperate European forests

Forecasting the growth of tree species to future environmental changes requires a better understanding of its determinants. Tree growth is known to respond to global‐change drivers such as climate change or atmospheric deposition, as well as to local land‐use drivers such as forest management. Yet, large geographical scale studies examining interactive growth responses to multiple global‐change drivers are relatively scarce and rarely consider management effects. Here, we assessed the interactive effects of three global‐change drivers (temperature, precipitation and nitrogen deposition) on individual tree growth of three study species (Quercus robur/petraea, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus excelsior). We sampled trees along spatial environmental gradients across Europe and accounted for the effects of management for Quercus. We collected increment cores from 267 trees distributed over 151 plots in 19 forest regions and characterized their neighbouring environment to take into account potentially confounding factors such as tree size, competition, soil conditions and elevation. We demonstrate that growth responds interactively to global‐change drivers, with species‐specific sensitivities to the combined factors. Simultaneously high levels of precipitation and deposition benefited Fraxinus, but negatively affected Quercus’ growth, highlighting species‐specific interactive tree growth responses to combined drivers. For Fagus, a stronger growth response to higher temperatures was found when precipitation was also higher, illustrating the potential negative effects of drought stress under warming for this species. Furthermore, we show that past forest management can modulate the effects of changing temperatures on Quercus’ growth; individuals in plots with a coppicing history showed stronger growth responses to higher temperatures. Overall, our findings highlight how tree growth can be interactively determined by global‐change drivers, and how these growth responses might be modulated by past forest management. By showing future growth changes for scenarios of environmental change, we stress the importance of considering multiple drivers, including past management and their interactions, when predicting tree growth.