Is climate change causing the range contraction of Cape Rock-jumpers (Chaetops frenatus)?

Species distribution models often suggest strong links between climate and species' distribution boundaries and project large distribution shifts in response to climate change. However, attributing distribution shifts to climate change requires more than correlative models. One idea is to examine correlates of the processes that cause distribution shifts, namely colonization and local extinction, by using dynamic occupancy models. The Cape Rock-jumper (Chaetops frenatus) has disappeared over most of its distribution where temperatures are the highest. We used dynamic occupancy models to analyse Cape Rock-jumper distribution with respect to climate (mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter), vegetation (proportion of natural vegetation, fynbos) and land-use type (protected areas). Detection/non-detection data were collected over two phases of the Southern African Bird Atlas Project (SABAP): 1987–1991 (SABAP1) and 2008–2014 (SABAP2). The model described the contraction of the Cape Rock-jumper's distribution between SABAP1 and SABAP2 well. Occupancy probability during SABAP1 increased with the proportion of fynbos and protected area per grid cell, and decreased with increases in mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter. Mean extinction probability increased with mean temperature and precipitation over the warmest annual quarter, although the associated confidence intervals were wide. Nonetheless, our results showed a clear correlation between climate and the distribution boundaries of the Cape Rock-jumper, and in particular, the species' aversion for higher temperatures. The data were less conclusive on whether the observed range contraction was linked to climate change or not. Examining the processes underlying distribution shifts requires large datasets and should lead to a better understanding of the drivers of these shifts.     

What shapes the range edge of a dominant African savanna tree,Colophospermum mopane? A demographic approach

Climate is widely assumed to be the primary process that limits the distribution ranges of plants. Yet, savannas have vegetation not at equilibrium with climate, instead its structure and function are shaped by interactions between fire, herbivory, climate, and vegetation. I use the rich literature of a dominant African savanna woody plant, Colophospermum mopane, to demonstrate that climate and disturbance interact with each demographic stage to shape this species range limits. This synthesis highlights that climate‐based predictions for the range of C. mopane inadequately represents the processes that shape its distribution. Instead, seed bank depletion and rainfall limitation create a demographic bottleneck at the early seedling stage. The legacy of top‐kill from disturbance changes tree stand architecture causing a critical limitation in seed supply. Exposure to top‐kill at all demographic stages causes a vigorous resprouting response and shifts tree architecture from that of 1–2 stemmed tall trees to that of a short multi‐stemmed shrub. The shorter, multi‐stemmed shrubs are below the height threshold (4 m) at which they can produce seeds, resulting in shrub‐dominated landscapes that are effectively sterile. This effect is likely most pronounced at the range edge where top‐kill‐inducing disturbances increase in frequency. The proposed mechanistic, demographic‐based understanding of C. mopane''s range limits highlights the complexity of processes that interact to shape its range edges. This insight serves as a conceptual model for understanding the determinants of range limits of other dominant woody savannas species living in disturbance limited ecosystems.     

Enough space in a warmer world? Microhabitat diversity and small‐scale distribution of alpine plants on mountain summits

Aim

Global warming is predicted to shift distributions of mountain species upwards, driven by a release from climatic restrictions at their upper distribution limit and increased biotic pressure at their lower distribution limit. In alpine ecosystems, which are characterized by large microclimatic diversity and sparse vegetation cover, the relative importance of abiotic and biotic drivers for species distribution is poorly understood. To disentangle abiotic and biotic mechanisms affecting distributions of alpine species, we investigated how alpine plant species with differing elevational ranges and frequency trends over the past century differ in their microhabitat distribution, and how they respond to neighbouring vegetation.

Location

A total of 11 summits (2635—3410 m a.s.l.) in SE‐Switzerland.

Methods

We quantified the microscale abundance of 12 species in relation to biogeographic (frequency trend, i.e., change in occurrences over the past century, and elevational range on summits) and local microhabitat characteristics (temperature, substrate type). We assessed species size traits in relation to neighbouring vegetation characteristics to investigate possible neighbour interactions.

Results

Species with increasing frequency on summits over the past century were most abundant on scree and warmer slopes. Species with negative or stable frequency trends on summits were more abundant on organic soil and colder slopes. The preferred microhabitats of the latter were rarest overall, decreased with increasing elevation, and had the most competitive neighbours. Size of one high‐alpine specialist, Ranunculus glacialis was negatively related to cover of neighbouring vegetation, whereas other species showed no response to neighbours.

Main conclusions

Long‐term frequency trends of species correlate with their microhabitat association. Species with most negative frequency trends show preferences for the rarest microhabitat conditions, where they likely experience higher competitive pressure in a warming climate. This finding emphasizes the importance of characterizing microhabitat associations and microclimatic diversity to assess present and future distributions of alpine plant species.

     

Effects of elevated CO2 on the interspecific competition between two sympatric species of Aphis gossypii and Bemisia tabaci fed on transgenic Bt cotton

Abstract Effects of elevated CO₂ (twice ambient vs. ambient) and Bt Cry1Ac transgene (Bt cotton cv. 33^B vs. its nontransgenic parental line cv. DP5415) on the interspecific competition between two ecologically similar species of cotton aphid Aphis gossypii and whitefly biotype‐Q Bemisia tabaci were studied in open‐top chambers. The results indicated that elevated CO₂ and Bt cotton both affected the population abundances of A. gossypii and biotype‐Q B. tabaci when introduced solely (i.e., without interspecific competition) or two species coexisted (i.e., with interspecific competition). Compared with ambient CO₂, elevated CO₂ increased the population abundances of A. gossypii and biotype‐Q B. tabaci as fed on Bt and nontransgenic cotton on 45 (i.e., seedling stage) and 60 (i.e., flowering stage) days after planting (DAP), but only significantly enhanced aphid abundance without interspecific competition on the 45‐DAP nontransgenic cotton and 60‐DAP Bt cotton, and significantly increased whitefly abundance with interspecific competition on the 45‐DAP Bt cotton and 60‐DAP nontransgenic cotton. In addition, compared with nontransgenic cotton at elevated CO₂, Bt cotton significantly reduced biotype‐Q B. tabaci abundances without and with interspecific competition during seedling and flowering stage, while only significantly decreasing A. gossypii abundances without interspecific competition during the seedling stage. When the two insect species coexisted, the proportions of biotype‐Q B. tabaci were significantly higher than those of A. gossypii on Bt and nontransgenic cotton at the same CO₂ levels, and elevated CO₂ only significantly increased the percentages of biotype‐Q B. tabaci and significantly reduced the proportions of A. gossypii on seedling and flowering nontransgenic cotton. Therefore, the effects of elevated CO₂ were favorable for biotype‐Q B. tabaci to out‐compete A. gossypii under the predicted global climate change.     

Climate-driven,but dynamic and complex? A reconciliation of competing hypotheses for species’ distributions

Estimates of the percentage of species “committed to extinction” by climate change range from 15% to 37%. The question is whether factors other than climate need to be included in models predicting species’ range change. We created demographic range models that include climate vs. climate-plus-competition, evaluating their influence on the geographic distribution of Pinus edulis, a pine endemic to the semiarid southwestern U.S. Analyses of data on 23,426 trees in 1941 forest inventory plots support the inclusion of competition in range models. However, climate and competition together only partially explain this species’ distribution. Instead, the evidence suggests that climate affects other range-limiting processes, including landscape-scale, spatial processes such as disturbances and antagonistic biotic interactions. Complex effects of climate on species distributions—through indirect effects, interactions, and feedbacks—are likely to cause sudden changes in abundance and distribution that are not predictable from a climate-only perspective.     

高寒草甸植物群落物种多样性和生产力关系的光竞争研究

通过施肥形成的生产力由低到高的过程中,物种多样性往往降低。总体竞争假说认为对所有资源的竞争作用对多样性的影响随着生产力提高而加剧,导致物种多样性的下降;光竞争假说则认为随着生产力提高,种间竞争从低生产力时的地下竞争转向高生产力时的光竞争,是光竞争导致了物种多样性的下降。为了验证这两种假说,本文通过在甘南玛曲高寒草甸的均匀施肥实验,研究了光竞争对高寒草甸植物群落物种多样性和生产力关系的影响。结果表明：(1)随着施肥梯度的增加,大部分植物的生长速率加快,高度和叶面积增加;(2)随着施肥梯度的增加,植物群落地上总的生物量提高,叶面积指数增加,透光率降低,物种多样性减少;(3)个体大小不对称的光竞争导致了高寒草甸植物群落物种多样性随施肥梯度的增加而减少。     

Does daily climate variation have an effect on species’ elevational range size?

In their recent paper published in Science (2016, 351 , 1437–1439), Chan et al. analysed 137 montane gradients, concluding that they found a novel pattern—a negative relationship between mean elevational range size of species and daily temperature variation, which was claimed as empirical evidence for a novel macrophysiological principle (Gilchrist's hypothesis). This intriguing possibility was their key conceptual contribution. Unfortunately, as we show, the empirical evidence was flawed because of errors in the analyses and substantial sampling bias in the data. First, we re‐ran their analyses using their data, finding that their model should have been rejected. Second, we performed two additional re‐analyses of their data, addressing biases and pseudoreplication in different ways, both times again rejecting the evidence claimed to support Gilchrist's hypothesis. These results overturn the key empirical findings of Chan et al.'s study. Therefore, the “macrophysiological principle” should be regarded as currently remaining unsupported by empirical evidence.     

Producing sons reduces lifetime reproductive success of subsequent offspring in pre-industrial Finns

Life-history theory states that reproductive events confer costs upon mothers. Many studies have shown that reproduction causes a decline in maternal condition, survival or success in subsequent reproductive events. However, little attention has been given to the prospect of reproductive costs being passed onto subsequent offspring, despite the fact that parental fitness is a function of the reproductive success of progeny. Here we use pedigree data from a pre-industrial human population to compare offspring life-history traits and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) according to the cost incurred by each individual's mother in the previous reproductive event. Because producing a son versus a daughter has been associated with greater maternal reproductive cost, we hypothesize that individuals born to mothers who previously produced sons will display compromised survival and/or LRS, when compared with those produced following daughters. Controlling for confounding factors such as socio-economic status and ecological conditions, we show that those offspring born after elder brothers have similar survival but lower LRS compared with those born after elder sisters. Our results demonstrate a maternal cost of reproduction manifested in reduced LRS of subsequent offspring. To our knowledge, this is the first time such a long-term intergenerational cost has been shown in a mammal species.     

Are corals coming to a reef near you? Projected extension of suitable thermal conditions for hard coral communities along the east Australian coast

Climate change is driving the poleward redistribution of coral species, but the rate and magnitude of future range extensions within temperate regions are rarely quantified. A better understanding of the likely future distribution of corals is needed to anticipate the resulting social, economic and environmental implications. Here, we project the rate and magnitude of extensions of suitable thermal conditions for hard coral communities along the east Australian coastline, using data on coral community presence, in conjunction with historical and projected ocean temperatures. Our projections indicate that temperatures will be suitable for coral communities dominated by the subtropical coral Pocillopora aliciae, currently found off Sydney, to extend their range poleward by 80 (RCP 2.6) to 450 km (RCP 8.5) by 2100, corresponding to a rate of 0.9–5.0 km year⁻¹. Similarly, thermal conditions will be such that diverse coral communities, such as those currently occurring in the Solitary Islands, may extend their range by 130 (RCP 2.6) to 580 km (RCP 8.5) by 2100, at a rate of 1.4–6.4 km year⁻¹. These projections are similar to those forecast for coral species in other parts of the world. Newly establishing coral communities in temperate regions may provide a range of novel local economic opportunities, particularly for marine tourism.