Projected climate and land use change alter western blacklegged tick phenology,seasonal host‐seeking suitability and human encounter risk in California

Global environmental change is having profound effects on the ecology of infectious disease systems, which are widely anticipated to become more pronounced under future climate and land use change. Arthropod vectors of disease are particularly sensitive to changes in abiotic conditions such as temperature and moisture availability. Recent research has focused on shifting environmental suitability for, and geographic distribution of, vector species under projected climate change scenarios. However, shifts in seasonal activity patterns, or phenology, may also have dramatic consequences for human exposure risk, local vector abundance and pathogen transmission dynamics. Moreover, changes in land use are likely to alter human–vector contact rates in ways that models of changing climate suitability are unlikely to capture. Here we used climate and land use projections for California coupled with seasonal species distribution models to explore the response of the western blacklegged tick (Ixodes pacificus), the primary Lyme disease vector in western North America, to projected climate and land use change. Specifically, we investigated how environmental suitability for tick host‐seeking changes seasonally, how the magnitude and direction of changing seasonal suitability differs regionally across California, and how land use change shifts human tick‐encounter risk across the state. We found vector responses to changing climate and land use vary regionally within California under different future scenarios. Under a hotter, drier scenario and more extreme land use change, the duration and extent of seasonal host‐seeking activity increases in northern California, but declines in the south. In contrast, under a hotter, wetter scenario seasonal host‐seeking declines in northern California, but increases in the south. Notably, regardless of future scenario, projected increases in developed land adjacent to current human population centers substantially increase potential human–vector encounter risk across the state. These results highlight regional variability and potential nonlinearity in the response of disease vectors to environmental change.     

Climatic and biotic extreme events moderate long‐term responses of above‐ and belowground sub‐Arctic heathland communities to climate change

Climate change impacts are not uniform across the Arctic region because interacting factors causes large variations in local ecosystem change. Extreme climatic events and population cycles of herbivores occur simultaneously against a background of gradual climate warming trends and can redirect ecosystem change along routes that are difficult to predict. Here, we present the results from sub‐Arctic heath vegetation and its belowground micro‐arthropod community in response to the two main drivers of vegetation damage in this region: extreme winter warming events and subsequent outbreaks of the defoliating autumnal moth caterpillar (Epirrita autumnata). Evergreen dwarf shrub biomass decreased (30%) following extreme winter warming events and again by moth caterpillar grazing. Deciduous shrubs that were previously exposed to an extreme winter warming event were not affected by the moth caterpillar grazing, while those that were not exposed to warming events (control plots) showed reduced (23%) biomass from grazing. Cryptogam cover increased irrespective of grazing or winter warming events. Micro‐arthropods declined (46%) following winter warming but did not respond to changes in plant community. Extreme winter warming and caterpillar grazing suppressed the CO₂ fluxes of the ecosystem. Evergreen dwarf shrubs are disadvantaged in a future sub‐Arctic with more stochastic climatic and biotic events. Given that summer warming may further benefit deciduous over evergreen shrubs, event and trend climate change may both act against evergreen shrubs and the ecosystem functions they provide. This is of particular concern given that Arctic heath vegetation is typically dominated by evergreen shrubs. Other components of the vegetation showed variable responses to abiotic and biotic events, and their interaction indicates that sub‐Arctic vegetation response to multiple pressures is not easy to predict from single‐factor responses. Therefore, while biotic and climatic events may have clear impacts, more work is needed to understand their net effect on Arctic ecosystems.     

Influence of landscape change on nearshore fisheries in southern Chile

At least half of the world's population resides in the coastal zone and the livelihoods of billions of people are affected either directly or indirectly by the production and sustainability of nearshore fisheries. Landscape change, specifically development of tree plantations, is accelerating worldwide as developing countries integrate into global markets to sell goods, offer climate‐mitigation services (carbon), and/or provide renewable energy. These changes can release excess nutrients into adjacent coastal waters causing eutrophication that alters the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. This study examined the relationship between coastal drainage basin land use/land cover change (LCLUC), specifically development of tree plantations, patterns of chlorophyll‐a in nearshore coastal waters, and the biological condition of commercially important shellfish, Concholepas concholepas (loco) in southern Chile. Locos (N = 1374) were sampled across 13 watersheds (35 853 km²) and 42 fisheries management areas (spanning 250 km of coastline). Locos harvested from management areas influenced by tree plantations had approximately 30% more endobiont (shell‐boring) phoronids, almost twice as many endobiont polychaetes and twice as many epibiont (shell‐attaching) barnacles than locos from areas in close proximity to watersheds dominated by native forests (15–20% of the watershed). Phoronid infested locos from coastal waters adjacent to watersheds with tree plantations were of relatively poor biological condition (smaller and narrower in width) and of reduced market value. Our study suggests that tree plantations result in indirect ecological impacts to coastal fisheries (more nutrients and higher phytoplankton biomass, resulting in smaller, low quality locos), and costs are born by coastal fishers (lower prices for locos). Increases in tree plantations could thus potentially significantly impact coastal fisheries worldwide and such problems should be managed as an interconnected network of land use change, oceanic ecosystems, and economic systems that are considered an integrated socio‐ecological system.     

Quantitative analysis of oyster larval proteome provides new insights into the effects of multiple climate change stressors

The metamorphosis of planktonic larvae of the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas) underpins their complex life‐history strategy by switching on the molecular machinery required for sessile life and building calcite shells. Metamorphosis becomes a survival bottleneck, which will be pressured by different anthropogenically induced climate change‐related variables. Therefore, it is important to understand how metamorphosing larvae interact with emerging climate change stressors. To predict how larvae might be affected in a future ocean, we examined changes in the proteome of metamorphosing larvae under multiple stressors: decreased pH (pH 7.4), increased temperature (30 °C), and reduced salinity (15 psu). Quantitative protein expression profiling using iTRAQ‐LC‐MS/MS identified more than 1300 proteins. Decreased pH had a negative effect on metamorphosis by down‐regulating several proteins involved in energy production, metabolism, and protein synthesis. However, warming switched on these down‐regulated pathways at pH 7.4. Under multiple stressors, cell signaling, energy production, growth, and developmental pathways were up‐regulated, although metamorphosis was still reduced. Despite the lack of lethal effects, significant physiological responses to both individual and interacting climate change related stressors were observed at proteome level. The metamorphosing larvae of the C. gigas population in the Yellow Sea appear to have adequate phenotypic plasticity at the proteome level to survive in future coastal oceans, but with developmental and physiological costs.     

Climate‐change refugia in the sheltered bays of Palau: analogs of future reefs

Coral bleaching and mortality are predicted to increase as climate change‐induced thermal‐stress events become more frequent. Although many studies document coral bleaching and mortality patterns, few studies have examined deviations from the expected positive relationships among thermal stress, coral bleaching, and coral mortality. This study examined the response of >30,000 coral colonies at 80 sites in Palau, during a regional thermal‐stress event in 2010. We sought to determine the spatial and taxonomic nature of bleaching and examine whether any habitats were comparatively resistant to thermal stress. Bleaching was most severe in the northwestern lagoon, in accordance with satellite‐derived maximum temperatures and anomalous temperatures above the long‐term averages. Pocillopora populations suffered the most extensive bleaching and the highest mortality. However, in the bays where temperatures were higher than elsewhere, bleaching and mortality were low. The coral‐community composition, constant exposure to high temperatures, and high vertical attenuation of light caused by naturally high suspended particulate matter buffered the corals in bays from the 2010 regional thermal‐stress event. Yet, nearshore reefs are also most vulnerable to land‐use change. Therefore, nearshore reefs should be given high conservation status because they provide refugia for coral populations as the oceans continue to warm.     

Quantifying aphid behavioral responses to environmental change

Aphids are the most common vector of plant viruses, and their feeding behavior is an important determinant of virus transmission. Positive effects of global change on aphid performance have been documented, but effects on aphid behavior are not known. We assessed the plant‐mediated behavioral responses of a generalist aphid, Myzus persicae (Sulzer) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), to increased CO₂ and nitrogen when feeding on each of three host species: Amaranthus viridis L. (Amaranthaceae), Polygonum persicaria L. (= Persicaria maculosa Gray) (Polygonaceae), and Solanum dulcamara L. (Solanaceae). Via a family of constrained Markov models, we tested the degree to which aphid movements demonstrate preference among host species or plants grown under varying environmental conditions. Entropy rates of the estimated Markov chains were used to further quantify aphid behavior. Our statistical methods provide a general tool for assessing choice and quantitatively comparing animal behavior under different conditions. Aphids displayed strong preferences for the same host species under all growth conditions, indicating that CO₂‐ and N‐induced changes in plant chemistry have minimal effects on host preference. However, entropy rates increased in the presence of non‐preferred hosts, even when preferred hosts were available. We conclude that the presence of a non‐preferred host species affected aphid‐feeding behavior more than changes in plant leaf chemistry when plants were grown under elevated CO₂ and increased N availability.     

Using a climatic niche model to predict the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on the distribution of Douglas‐fir in New Zealand

Climate change is likely to have major impacts on the distribution of planted and natural forests. Herein, we demonstrate how a process‐based niche model (CLIMEX) can be extended to globally project the potential habitat suitable for Douglas‐fir. Within this distribution, we use CLIMEX to predict abundance of the pathogen P haeocryptopus gaeumannii and severity of its associated foliage disease, Swiss needle cast. The distribution and severity of the disease, which can strongly reduce growth rate of Douglas‐fir, is closely correlated with seasonal temperatures and precipitation. This model is used to project how climate change during the 2080s may alter the area suitable for Douglas‐fir plantations within New Zealand. The climate change scenarios used indicate that the land area suitable for Douglas‐fir production in the North Island will be reduced markedly from near 100% under current climate to 36–64% of the total land area by 2080s. Within areas shown to be suitable for the host in the North Island, four of the six climate change scenarios predict substantial increases in disease severity that will make these regions at best marginal for Douglas‐fir by the 2080s. In contrast, most regions in the South Island are projected to sustain relatively low levels of disease, and remain suitable for Douglas‐fir under climate change over the course of this century.     

Autumn growth of three perennial weeds at high latitude benefits from climate change

In autumn, agricultural perennial weeds prepare for winter and can store reserves into creeping roots or rhizomes. Little is known about influence of climate change in this period. We tested the effect of simulated climate change in autumn on three widespread and noxious perennial weeds, Elymus repens (L.) Gould, Cirsium arvense (L.) Scop. and Sonchus arvensis L. We divided and combined simulated climate change components into elevated CO₂ concentration (525 ppm), elevated temperatures (+2–2.5°C), treatments in open‐top chambers. In addition, a control in the open‐top chamber without any increase in CO₂ and temperature, and a field control outside the chambers were included. Two geographically different origins and three pre‐growth periods prior to the exposure to climate change factors were included for each species. All species increased leaf area under elevated temperature, close to doubling in E. repens and quadrupling in the dicot species. E. repens kept leaves green later in autumn. C. arvense did not benefit in below‐ground growth from more leaf area or leaf dry mass. S. arvensis had low levels of leaf area throughout the experiment and withered earlier than the two other species. Below‐ground plant parts of S. arvensis were significantly increased by elevated temperature. Except for root:shoot ratio of C. arvense, the effects of pure elevated CO₂ were not significant for any variables compared to the open‐top chamber control. There was an additive, but no synergistic, effect of enhanced temperature and CO₂. The length of pre‐growth period was highly important for autumn plant growth, while origin had minor effect. We conclude that the small transfer of enhanced above‐ground growth into below‐ground growth under climate change in autumn does not favour creeping perennial plants per se, but more leaf area may offer more plant biomass to be tackled by chemical or physical weed control.     

How much land‐based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

Feeding 9–10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well‐being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply‐ and demand‐side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade‐offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand‐side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply‐side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand‐side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand‐side measures offer a greater potential (1.5–15.6 Gt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1) in meeting both challenges than do supply‐side measures (1.5–4.3 Gt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO₂‐eq. yr^?1), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply‐side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand‐side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.     

Annual plants change in size over a century of observations

Studies have documented changes in animal body sizes over the last century, but very little is known about changes in plant sizes, even though reduced plant productivity is potentially responsible for declines in size of other organisms. Here, I ask whether warming trends in the Great Basin have affected plant size by measuring specimens preserved on herbarium sheets collected between 1893 and 2011. I asked how maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the year of collection affected plant height, leaf size, and flower number, and asked whether changes in climate resulted in decreasing sizes for seven annual forbs. Species had contrasting responses to climate factors, and would not necessarily be expected to respond in parallel to climatic shifts. There were generally positive relationships between plant size and increased minimum and maximum temperatures, which would have been predicted to lead to small increases in plant sizes over the observation period. While one species increased in size and flower number over the observation period, five of the seven species decreased in plant height, four of these decreased in leaf size, and one species also decreased in flower production. One species showed no change. The mechanisms behind these size changes are unknown, and the limited data available on these species (germination timing, area of occupancy, relative abundance) did not explain why some species shrank while others grew or did not change in size over time. These results show that multiple annual forbs are decreasing in size, but that even within the same functional group, species may have contrasting responses to similar environmental stimuli. Changes in plant size could have cascading effects on other members of these communities, and differential responses to directional change may change the composition of plant communities over time.     

Land use change from C3 grassland to C4 Miscanthus: effects on soil carbon content and estimated mitigation benefit after six years

To date, most Miscanthus trials and commercial fields have been planted on arable land. Energy crops will need to be grown more on lower grade lands unsuitable for arable crops. Grasslands represent a major land resource for energy crops. In grasslands, where soil organic carbon (SOC) levels can be high, there have been concerns that the carbon mitigation benefits of bioenergy from Miscanthus could be offset by losses in SOC associated with land use change. At a site in Wales (UK), we quantified the relatively short‐term impacts (6 years) of four novel Miscanthus hybrids and Miscanthus × giganteus on SOC in improved grassland. After 6 years, using stable carbon isotope ratios (¹³C/¹²C), the amount of Miscanthus derived C (C4) in total SOC was considerable (ca. 12%) and positively correlated to belowground biomass of different hybrids. Nevertheless, significant changes in SOC stocks (0–30 cm) were not detected as C4 Miscanthus carbon replaced the initial C3 grassland carbon; however, initial SOC decreased more in the presence of higher belowground biomass. We ascribed this apparently contradictory result to the rhizosphere priming effect triggered by easily available C sources. Observed changes in SOC partitioning were modelled using the RothC soil carbon turnover model and projected for 20 years showing that there is no significant change in SOC throughout the anticipated life of a Miscanthus crop. We interpret our observations to mean that the new labile C from Miscanthus has replaced the labile C from the grassland and, therefore, planting Miscanthus causes an insignificant change in soil organic carbon. The overall C mitigation benefit is therefore not decreased by depletion of soil C and is due to substitution of fossil fuel by the aboveground biomass, in this instance 73–108 Mg C ha^?1 for the lowest and highest yielding hybrids, respectively, after 6 years.     

Logged peat swamp forest supports greater macrofungal biodiversity than large‐scale oil palm plantations and smallholdings

Intensive land expansion of commercial oil palm agricultural lands results in reducing the size of peat swamp forests, particularly in Southeast Asia. The effect of this land conversion on macrofungal biodiversity is, however, understudied. We quantified macrofungal biodiversity by identifying mushroom sporocarps throughout four different habitats; logged peat swamp forest, large‐scale oil palm plantation, monoculture, and polyculture smallholdings. We recorded a total of 757 clusters of macrofungi belonging to 127 morphospecies and found that substrates for growing macrofungi were abundant in peat swamp forest; hence, morphospecies richness and macrofungal clusters were significantly greater in logged peat swamp forest than converted oil palm agriculture lands. Environmental factors that influence macrofungi in logged peat swamp forests such as air temperature, humidity, wind speed, soil pH, and soil moisture were different from those in oil palm plantations and smallholdings. We conclude that peat swamp forests are irreplaceable with respect to macrofungal biodiversity. They host much greater macrofungal biodiversity than any of the oil palm agricultural lands. It is imperative that further expansion of oil palm plantation into remaining peat swamp forests should be prohibited in palm oil producing countries. These results imply that macrofungal distribution reflects changes in microclimate between habitats and reduced macrofungal biodiversity may adversely affect decomposition in human‐modified landscapes.     

Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land‐use change on an endangered bird

Climate change and land‐use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land‐use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual‐based model to explore the effects of land‐use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red‐cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land‐use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate‐driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ‐GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land‐use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor‐quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.     

Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulated hydrological impacts of land use change from temperate grassland to energy crops: A case study in western UK

When considering the large‐scale deployment of bioenergy crops, it is important to understand the implication for ecosystem hydrological processes and the influences of crop type and location. Based on the potential for future land use change (LUC), the 10,280 km² West Wales Water Framework Directive River Basin District (UK) was selected as a typical grassland dominated district, and the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrology model with a geographic information systems interface was used to investigate implications for different bioenergy deployment scenarios. The study area was delineated into 855 sub‐basins and 7,108 hydrological response units based on rivers, soil type, land use, and slope. Changes in hydrological components for two bioenergy crops (Miscanthus and short rotation coppice, SRC) planted on 50% (2,192 km²) or 25% (1,096 km²) of existing improved pasture are quantified. Across the study area as a whole, only surface run‐off with SRC planted at the 50% level was significantly impacted, where it was reduced by up to 23% (during April). However, results varied spatially and a comparison of annual means for each sub‐basin and scenario revealed surface run‐off was significantly decreased and baseflow significantly increased (by a maximum of 40%) with both Miscanthus and SRC. Evapotranspiration was significantly increased with SRC (at both planting levels) and water yield was significantly reduced with SRC (at the 50% level) by up to 5%. Effects on streamflow were limited, varying between ?5% and +5% change (compared to baseline) in the majority of sub‐basins. The results suggest that for mesic temperate grasslands, adverse effects from the drying of soil and alterations to streamflow may not arise, and with surface run‐off reduced and baseflow increased, there could, depending on crop location, be potential benefits for flood and erosion mitigation.     

The effect of close approaches for tagging activities by small research vessels on the behavior of humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae)

Small research vessels are often used as platforms for tagging activities to collect behavioral data on cetaceans and they have the potential to disturb that group or individual. If this disturbance is ignored, results and conclusions produced by that study could be inaccurate. Here land‐based behavioral data of migrating humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) (n = 29) were used to determine the effect of close approaches for tagging by research vessels on their diving, movement and surface behaviors. Groups of whales were tagged, using digital recording tags, by small research vessels, as part of a behavioral response study. In groups that were approached for tagging, temporary changes in movement behaviors during close approaches were found, with subsequent recovery to “pre‐approach” levels. In female‐calf groups more long‐term changes in travel speed were found. Results suggest that, although close approaches for tagging by small vessels may cause behavioral changes in humpback whales, this change may be small and temporary. However, in female‐calf groups, the behavioral change may be greater and longer lasting. This study shows that when using small vessels for behavioral research, disturbance, and recovery should be measured to ensure integrity of data used for other analyses.     

Disturbance history mediates climate change effects on subtropical forest biomass and dynamics

The responses of forest communities to interacting anthropogenic disturbances like climate change and logging are poorly known. Subtropical forests have been heavily modified by humans and their response to climate change is poorly understood. We investigated the 9‐year change observed in a mixed conifer‐hardwood Atlantic forest mosaic that included both mature and selectively logged forest patches in subtropical South America. We used demographic monitoring data within 10 1 ha plots that were subjected to distinct management histories (plots logged until 1955, until 1987, and unlogged) to test the hypothesis that climate change affected forest structure and dynamics differentially depending on past disturbances. We determined the functional group of all species based on life‐history affinities as well as many functional traits like leaf size, specific leaf area, wood density, total height, stem slenderness, and seed size data for the 66 most abundant species. Analysis of climate data revealed that minimum temperatures and rainfall have been increasing in the last few decades of the 20th century. Floristic composition differed mainly with logging history categories, with only minor change over the nine annual census intervals. Aboveground biomass increased in all plots, but increases were higher in mature unlogged forests, which showed signs of forest growth associated with increased CO₂, temperature, and rainfall/treefall gap disturbance at the same time. Logged forests showed arrested succession as indicated by reduced abundances of Pioneers and biomass‐accumulators like Large Seeded Pioneers and Araucaria, as well as reduced functional diversity. Management actions aimed at creating regeneration opportunities for long‐lived pioneers are needed to restore community functional diversity, and ecosystem services such as increased aboveground biomass accumulation. We conclude that the effects of climate drivers on the dynamics of Brazilian mixed Atlantic forests vary with land‐use legacies, and can differ importantly from the ones prevalent in better known tropical forests.     

Cattle feed or bioenergy? Consequential life cycle assessment of biogas feedstock options on dairy farms

On‐farm anaerobic digestion (AD) of wastes and crops can potentially avoid greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but incurs extensive environmental effects via carbon and nitrogen cycles and substitution of multiple processes within and outside farm system boundaries. Farm models were combined with consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) to assess plausible biogas and miscanthus heating pellet scenarios on dairy farms. On the large dairy farm, the introduction of slurry‐only AD led to reductions in global warming potential (GWP) and resource depletion burdens of 14% and 67%, respectively, but eutrophication and acidification burden increases of 9% and 10%, respectively, assuming open tank digestate storage. Marginal GWP burdens per Mg dry matter (DM) feedstock codigested with slurry ranged from –637 kg CO₂e for food waste to +509 kg CO₂e for maize. Codigestion of grass and maize led to increased imports of concentrate feed to the farm, negating the GWP benefits of grid electricity substitution. Attributing grass‐to‐arable land use change (LUC) to marginal wheat feed production led to net GWP burdens exceeding 900 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 maize DM codigested. Converting the medium‐sized dairy farm to a beef‐plus‐AD farm led to a minor reduction in GWP when grass‐to‐arable LUC was excluded, but a 38% GWP increase when such LUC was attributed to marginal maize and wheat feed required for intensive compensatory milk production. If marginal animal feed is derived from soybeans cultivated on recently converted cropland in South America, the net GWP burden increases to 4099 kg CO₂e Mg^?1 maize DM codigested – equivalent to 55 Mg CO₂e yr^?1 per hectare used for AD‐maize cultivation. We conclude that AD of slurry and food waste on dairy farms is an effective GHG mitigation option, but that the quantity of codigested crops should be strictly limited to avoid potentially large international carbon leakage via animal feed displacement.     

Simulating effects of climate change under direct and diapause development in a butterfly

Temperature is one of the most important ecological factors affecting species survival and distributions. Therefore, global climate change, involving increases in mean surface temperature and the occurrence of extreme weather events, may pose a substantial challenge to biodiversity. Whereas tropical ectotherms are believed to be very sensitive to climate change, temperate‐zone species may actually benefit from higher temperatures. However, as in temperate zones large parts of the year are unsuitable for growth and reproduction, seasonal time constraints may complicate matters. Against this background we here investigate the impact of simulated climate change, involving increased mean temperatures and heat waves, across developmental pathways of the butterfly Lycaena tityrus (Poda) (Lepidoptera: Lycaenidae). Increased temperatures speeded up development but decreased pupal mass as expected. However, we found no evidence for detrimental effects of increased temperatures or even simulated heat waves. Furthermore, patterns did not differ between indirectly and directly developing individuals, which are assumed to be more time constrained. Our findings support the notion that not all species will be detrimentally affected by climate change, and suggest that species attributes may be more important than potential time constraints imposed by different developmental pathways.     

Can community structure track sea‐level rise? Stress and competitive controls in tidal wetlands

Climate change impacts, such as accelerated sea‐level rise, will affect stress gradients, yet impacts on competition/stress tolerance trade‐offs and shifts in distributions are unclear. Ecosystems with strong stress gradients, such as estuaries, allow for space‐for‐time substitutions of stress factors and can give insight into future climate‐related shifts in both resource and nonresource stresses. We tested the stress gradient hypothesis and examined the effect of increased inundation stress and biotic interactions on growth and survival of two congeneric wetland sedges, Schoenoplectus acutus and Schoenoplectus americanus. We simulated sea‐level rise across existing marsh elevations and those not currently found to reflect potential future sea‐level rise conditions in two tidal wetlands differing in salinity. Plants were grown individually and together at five tidal elevations, the lowest simulating an 80‐cm increase in sea level, and harvested to assess differences in biomass after one growing season. Inundation time, salinity, sulfides, and redox potential were measured concurrently. As predicted, increasing inundation reduced biomass of the species commonly found at higher marsh elevations, with little effect on the species found along channel margins. The presence of neighbors reduced total biomass of both species, particularly at the highest elevation; facilitation did not occur at any elevation. Contrary to predictions, we documented the competitive superiority of the stress tolerator under increased inundation, which was not predicted by the stress gradient hypothesis. Multifactor manipulation experiments addressing plant response to accelerated climate change are integral to creating a more realistic, valuable, and needed assessment of potential ecosystem response. Our results point to the important and unpredicted synergies between physical stressors, which are predicted to increase in intensity with climate change, and competitive forces on biomass as stresses increase.     

A review of the ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations,using forests as a reference system

Oil palm plantations have expanded rapidly in recent decades. This large‐scale land‐use change has had great ecological, economic, and social impacts on both the areas converted to oil palm and their surroundings. However, research on the impacts of oil palm cultivation is scattered and patchy, and no clear overview exists. We address this gap through a systematic and comprehensive literature review of all ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, including several (genetic, medicinal and ornamental resources, information functions) not included in previous systematic reviews. We compare ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations to those in forests, as the conversion of forest to oil palm is prevalent in the tropics. We find that oil palm plantations generally have reduced ecosystem functioning compared to forests: 11 out of 14 ecosystem functions show a net decrease in level of function. Some functions show decreases with potentially irreversible global impacts (e.g. reductions in gas and climate regulation, habitat and nursery functions, genetic resources, medicinal resources, and information functions). The most serious impacts occur when forest is cleared to establish new plantations, and immediately afterwards, especially on peat soils. To variable degrees, specific plantation management measures can prevent or reduce losses of some ecosystem functions (e.g. avoid illegal land clearing via fire, avoid draining of peat, use of integrated pest management, use of cover crops, mulch, and compost) and we highlight synergistic mitigation measures that can improve multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously. The only ecosystem function which increases in oil palm plantations is, unsurprisingly, the production of marketable goods. Our review highlights numerous research gaps. In particular, there are significant gaps with respect to socio‐cultural information functions. Further, there is a need for more empirical data on the importance of spatial and temporal scales, such as differences among plantations in different environments, of different sizes, and of different ages, as our review has identified examples where ecosystem functions vary spatially and temporally. Finally, more research is needed on developing management practices that can offset the losses of ecosystem functions. Our findings should stimulate research to address the identified gaps, and provide a foundation for more systematic research and discussion on ways to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the positive impacts of oil palm cultivation.