Conservation effort and assessment of population size in fluctuating environments

We consider optimal conservation strategies for endangered populations. We assume that the survival of the population is affected by unpredictable environmental fluctuation and can be improved by conservation effort. Furthermore, the exact value of the initial population size is assumed to be unknown. The conservation strategy involves two aspects: investment of assessment effort, to improve the estimate of the initial population size and investment of conservation effort. Both types of effort imply economic costs. The optimal management strategy is assumed to minimize the weighted sum of extinction probability and the economic cost of the conservation and the assessment effort. (1) We first analyse the optimal conservation effort when the current population size is known accurately. (2) Next, we consider the situation in which there is limited information (i.e. a cue) on population size. (3) We subsequently discuss the cases where the cue accuracy can be improved by assessment of the population. We study the optimal level of the assessment effort and discuss its dependence on various parameters.     

Optimal conservation strategy in fluctuating environments with species interactions: resource-enhancement of the native species versus extermination of the alien species

Alien species are often a major threat to native species. We consider optimal conservation strategies for a population whose viability is affected both by an alien species (such as a competitor, a predator, or a pathogen) and by random fluctuations of the environment (e.g. precipitation, temperature). We assume that the survivorship of the native population can be improved by providing resources such as food and shelter, and also by an extermination effort that decreases the abundance of the alien species. These efforts decrease the extinction probability of the native population, but they are accompanied by economic costs. We search for the optimal strategy that minimizes the weighted sum of the extinction probability and the economic costs over a single year. We derive conditions under which investment should be made in both resource-enhancement and extermination, and examine how the optimal effort levels change with parameters. When the optimal strategy includes both types of efforts, the optimal extermination effort level turns out to be independent of the density and economic value of the native species, or the variance of the environmental fluctuation. Furthermore, the optimal resource-enhancement effort is then independent of the density of the alien species. However, the parameter dependencies greatly change if one of the efforts becomes zero. We also examine the situation in which the impact of the alien species is uncertain. The optimal extermination effort increases with the uncertainty of this impact except when the cost of extermination is very high.     

Optimal conservation effort for a population in a stochastic environment

We study the optimal conservation effort for a population in a fluctuating environment. The survivorship of a population is affected by unpredictable environmental fluctuation (noise) and can be improved by conservation effort accompanied by a cost. The optimal effort level is the one that minimizes the total cost, defined as the weighted sum of the population extinction risk and the economic cost of conservation effort. The optimal effort depends on the variance and the probability distribution of the noise, the relative importance of the population's survival vs. the economic cost, the effectiveness of conservation effort, and the time scope over which we optimize. The analysis of dynamic programming illustrates that the choice of extinction risk function greatly affects the optimal effort level. The conservation effort level that is the best solution of a multiple-year optimization may be higher than that for the corresponding single-year optimization, if the population is relatively safe. However, the conservation level for the multiple-year optimization becomes lower than for the single-year optimization if the population is endangered. In a similar manner, the optimal conservation effort level for the problem with a short time scope is either higher or lower than that for the problem with a long time scope, depending on the extinction risk of the population. Next, for each parameter of the model, we define five different sensitivities of extinction probability or of the total cost. We then study the mean increase in the total cost caused by the uncertainty of parameters. To achieve the best conservation result, we need to invest the limited research effort to the parameter with the largest effect to the optimal effort level, rather than to those with large impacts on the extinction probability or on the total cost. The recommended policy should depend critically on the choice of the criterion to optimize, which shows the importance of theoretical study of the relationship in performing proper decision making in conservation practice.     

Are research efforts on Animalia in the South Pacific associated with the conservation status or population trends?

Analyses of knowledge gaps can highlight imbalances in research, encouraging greater proportionality in the distribution of research efforts. In this research we used generalized linear mixed models (GLMM) with the aim to determine if research efforts for the period 2005–2015 for terrestrial vertebrates of Amphibia, Aves, Mammalia and Reptilia in the South Pacific region were correlated with conservation status (critically endangered (CR), endangered (EN), vulnerable (VU), least concern (LC) and near threatened (NT)) or population trends (increasing, stable, decreasing and unknown) through the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) database. Our results showed that research distribution was uneven across different classes. Out of 633623 investigated papers, the average number of publications per species was 43.7, 306.7, 717.6 and 115.3 for Amphibia (284 species), Aves (1306 species), Mammalia (243 species) and Reptilia (400 species), respectively. Consistently, the lower publication effort on Amphibia compared to other taxonomic classes was revealed as significant by GLMM analysis. There was no significant differences in research effort among levels of conservation status. However, we found significantly different publication efforts among population trends of all examined species in that species with “unknown” population trends gained significantly lower researchers’ attention compared to species with “decreasing” trend. Results also indicated that, although it was not significant, the highest attention is given to species with “increasing” population trend over all taxonomic classes. Using the Information Theoretic approach we also generated a set of competing models to identify most important factors influencing research efforts, revealing that the highest ranked model included taxonomic class and population trend.     

Optimal resource allocation of the marine bivalve Yoldia notabilis: The effects of size-limited reproductive capacity and size-dependent mortality

The effects of the morphological constraint of maximum reproductive output (reproductive capacity) and the size at which individuals can avoid heavy mortality (refuge size) on the resource allocation pattern between growth and reproduction are investigated using a dynamic modelling approach for a population of Yoldia notabilis (Mollusca: Bivalvia) in Otsuchi Bay, northeastern Japan. A state variable model is developed using field data on shell length, somatic weight, production, survivorship and reproductive capacity of the bivalve. The optimal allocation pattern is characterized by sudden switching from growth to reproduction without the assumption of reproductive capacity, while simultaneous investment in growth and reproduction becomes optimal when maximum reproductive output is limited by reproductive capacity. Size-specific reproductive effort, size at maturity and the growth curve predicted by the latter model fit more closely to the field data, suggesting that size-limited reproductive capacity can play an important role in the evolution of the observed resource allocation pattern. The mortality pattern affects optimal size at maturity, but not size-specific reproductive effort after maturity. When refuge size is fixed, optimal size at maturity increases with survivorship above refuge size. Optimal size at maturity changes in a more complex way with changes in refuge size. Size at maturity remains constant when refuge size is small, increases when it is intermediate, and decreases when it is large. The results suggest that refuge size is an important factor in the evolution of size at maturity, although its contribution varies depending on the values of other factors, such as size-dependent production and survivorship above refuge size. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Using sample aerial surveys to estimate the abundance of the endangered Grevy’s zebra in northern Kenya

The effective management of endangered mammals requires reliable estimates of population size. This is challenging for species such as Grevy’s zebra (Equus grevyi) that are distributed over large areas at low densities. Less than 2500 Grevy’s zebra remain in the wild, scattered across 85,000 km² of savannah in northern Kenya and Ethiopia. An efficient, accurate and repeatable survey method is required to guide conservation planning for the species. Currently, total aerial counts are used to census endangered species within Kenya, but are costly in terms of resources. In this study, we evaluated the suitability of sample survey methods for Grevy’s zebra. We estimated population size using sample aerial counts for a known population of Grevy’s zebra in Lewa Wildlife Conservancy (LWC), providing the opportunity to test the accuracy of sample methods, while comparing resource costs with total count methods. We sampled one‐third of LWC using parallel 500‐ m strip transects at 1500‐ m intervals. The population estimate was comparable to the known population size and was less than half as expensive as the equivalent total count survey. Our results suggest sample aerial surveys provide an accurate and cost‐effective means of monitoring Grevy’s zebra and other endangered species in open habitats.     

Variation in testosterone levels and male reproductive effort: Insight from a polygynous human population

Recent evidence suggests that, in humans, variations in testosterone (T) levels between men reflect their differential allocation in mating versus parenting efforts. However, most studies have been conducted in urbanized, monogamous populations, making generalizations from them questionable. This study addresses the question of whether indicators of male reproductive effort are associated with variations in salivary T levels in a polygynous population of agriculturists in rural Senegal. We first show that pair-bonding and/or transition to fatherhood is associated with T profiles: married fathers (N = 53) have lower morning and afternoon T levels than unmarried non-fathers (N = 28). Second, among fathers, individual differences in parenting effort, as well as variations in mating effort, predict morning T levels. Indeed, men highly investing in parental care show lower morning T levels. Moreover, among men under 50, polygynous men show higher morning T levels than monogamous men. Taken together with previous results in monogamous settings, these findings suggest that the endocrine regulation of reproductive effort is probably a general feature of human populations.     

Demographic modeling and monitoring cycle in a long-lived endangered shrub

Demographic monitoring is a well established tool for conservation managers. But, monitoring programs typically do not offer methods to explore the relationship between projected population trends and the probability of trend detection. Moreover, conservation biologists need to evaluate and incorporate the effect of variability and habitat perturbation on the efficiency of monitoring programs.We studied population demography of an endangered shrub endemic to East Central Spain, Vella pseudocytisus subsp. paui in order to understand its present demographic performance, how it is affected by increasing variability and perturbation and how these two factors are related to monitoring and monitoring thresholds.Using Lefkovich demographic matrices on six years of data, we produced 19 different population projections, and we compared these modeled projections against observed projection. We designated three conceptually important detection thresholds: an early warning; an unequivocal signal; and, a quasi-extinction threshold. Based on calculated detection times of all models for every threshold, we produced an averaged monitoring cycle (minimum visit frequency) to provide managers with a tool to design a consistent monitoring program for this plant.Our results indicate a relatively stable current population along with large detection times for critical threshold changes of modeled populations when considering small management changes (low population variability and low perturbation intensity). In contrast, model combinations incorporating high population variance and high perturbation produce disproportionally short times to detection of a significant population trend. In terms of designing studies to maximise results while minimising monitoring effort, designing a monitoring program capable of providing an early warning system of potential population failure requires more effort than detecting an unequivocal signal of decline.Finally, we propose two alternatives when calculating monitoring cycle (MC) values. One of them implies demographic MC if population perturbation and variation are high. For that, an optimal monitoring cycle is estimated based on a range of possible scenarios for population trends. Alternatively, we propose environmental MC, when low values of perturbation and variation are expected.     

Assessing re-introductions of the African Wild dog (Lycaon pictus) in the Limpopo Valley Conservancy, South Africa, using the stochastic simulation program VORTEX

The African wild dog (Lycaon pictus) is one of Africa's most endangered species and therefore classified as endangered by IUCN. Earlier distributions included most of Africa but currently the African wild dog only has populations larger than 300 individuals in three countries (Botswana, Tanzania and South Africa). In 1998, a plan was launched in South Africa to manage sub-populations of the African wild dog in several small, geographically isolated, conservation areas. This management program involved the reintroduction of wild dogs into suitable conservation areas and periodic translocations among them. We used the stochastic population simulation model VORTEX to evaluate the Limpopo Valley Conservancy in the north of South Africa, as a possible reintroduction site for African wild dogs. The simulations showed that the size of the initial population released only had a small effect on the population dynamics. However, when individuals were supplemented and harvested over a longer period the probability of persistence increased. Number of females breeding, male mortality, and carrying capacity were key factors in the population dynamics, but according to VORTEX the severity of natural catastrophes had the greatest influence on the extinction risk and inbreeding. We suggest that the reintroduction program may be successful, if areas are properly secured, the dogs are held in a boma before release, wild animals or at least a mix of wild and captive animals are used for the release and the animals are vaccinated against rabies. It is, however, essential to continue monitoring followed by modelling efforts to re-evaluate the success of the reintroduction program.     

Management of threatened bird species: evaluation of the hands-on approach

Intensive manipulations of rare birds can be important conservation tools when traditional management practices, such as legal protection and habitat preservation, are insufficient to halt population declines and save endangered species from extinction. Nonetheless, this "hands-on" methodology has been criticized as scientifically unsound, ineffective, costly and a diversion from preservation of habitats and ecosystems. We consider the effectiveness of manipulative management by reviewing 30 presentations at the Symposium on Management Techniques for Preserving Endangered Birds in 1977. Examination of the outcome of these efforts in 1993 indicates that 43% have contributed to improved population viability through an increase in breeding numbers, another 23% have helped to stabilize numbers or to slow the rate of population decline, while the outcome of five others (17%) is inconclusive, and the same number ended in failure. Our evaluation of these and other similar projects is that the hands-on approach has proved to be a justified and effective stopgap procedure to help critically endangered species through a crisis, to reintroduce species into previously occupied range and to reinforce locally diminished populations. As such, it often needs to be part of an integrated program for avian conservation.     

Lifetime reproductive effort in humans

Lifetime reproductive effort (LRE) measures the total amount of metabolized energy diverted to reproduction during the lifespan. LRE captures key components of the life history and is particularly useful for describing and comparing the life histories of different organisms. Given a simple energetic production constraint, LRE is predicted to be similar in value for very different life histories. However, humans have some unique ecological characteristics that may alter LRE, such as the long post-reproductive lifespan, lengthy juvenile period and the cooperative nature of human foraging and reproduction. We calculate LRE for natural fertility human populations, compare the findings to other mammals and discuss the implications for human life-history evolution. We find that human life-history traits combine to yield the theoretically predicted value (approx. 1.4). Thus, even with the subsidized energy budget and uniqueness of the adult lifespan, human reproductive strategies converge on the same optimal value of LRE. This suggests that the fundamental demographic variables contained in LRE trade-off against one another in a predictable and highly constrained manner.     

Conservation Investment for Rare Plants in Urban Environments

Budgets for species conservation limit actions. Expending resources in areas of high human density is costly and generally considered less likely to succeed. Yet, coastal California contains both a large fraction of narrowly endemic at-risk plant species as well as the state''s three largest metropolitan regions. Hence understanding the capacity to protect species along the highly urbanized coast is a conservation priority. We examine at-risk plant populations along California''s coastline from San Diego to north of San Francisco to better understand whether there is a relationship between human population density and: i) performance of at-risk plant populations; and ii) conservation spending. Answering these questions can help focus appropriate strategic conservation investment. Rare plant performance was measured using the annualized growth rate estimate between census periods using the California Natural Diversity Database. Human density was estimated using Census Bureau statistics from the year 2000. We found strong evidence for a lack of a relationship between human population density and plant population performance in California''s coastal counties. Analyzing US Endangered Species expenditure reports, we found large differences in expenditures among counties, with plants in San Diego County receiving much higher expenditures than other locations. We found a slight positive relationship between expenditures on behalf of endangered species and human density. Together these data support the argument that conservation efforts by protecting habitats within urban environments are not less likely to be successful than in rural areas. Expenditures on behalf of federally listed endangered and threatened plants do not appear to be related to proximity to human populations. Given the evidence of sufficient performance in urban environments, along with a high potential to leverage public support for nature in urban environments, expenditures in these areas appear to be an appropriate use of conservation funds.     

Optimizing survey effort for burrow‐nesting seabirds

ABSTRACT Regular monitoring of seabird populations is necessary to improve our understanding of their responses to environmental change and inform conservation management. However, given the difficulty in accessing remote breeding sites and the limited resources typically available to land managers, conducting regular, extensive surveys of seabird populations is often not feasible. Our objective was to determine the minimum survey effort required to obtain accurate and precise population estimates of Short‐tailed Shearwaters (Ardenna tenuirostris) and Little Penguins (Eudyptula minor), two abundant burrowing seabird species in southeastern Australia, by comparing bootstrapped means and confidence intervals under different sampling regimes on four islands. We found that, in many cases, survey effort (the proportion of transects and quadrats along transects surveyed) could be reduced. For Short‐tailed Shearwaters, reducing the number of transects resulted in a maximum difference of 15% between the means at full survey effort and two levels of reduced survey effort. Means differed by <3% when we halved the number of quadrats. For Little Penguins, reducing the number of transects and quadrats by 50% resulted in differences of 7–40% and 4–34%, respectively, between the full and reduced survey effort means. Confidence intervals generally increased with decreasing survey effort for both species. Differences in required survey effort between the two species in our study may have been due to differences in burrow distribution on islands, with Short‐tailed Shearwater burrows generally uniformly distributed on each island and Little Penguin burrows typically occurring in patches. These would be influenced by island‐specific characteristics in concert with habitat preferences, population size, and seasonal variation in seabird abundance. Stratified sampling did not increase survey accuracy and simulations showed that large reductions in survey effort could be made under a pseudo‐random sampling regime, with mean abundance estimates similar at most levels of survey effort. For both species, reducing the proportion of pseudo‐random quadrats to 50% and 25% of the full survey effort produced confidence intervals of 12% and 21%, respectively, of the maximum, whereas a survey effort of 10% produced confidence intervals of up to 36% of the maximum for both species. A pseudo‐random sampling regime would maximize survey efficiency because considerably fewer quadrats would be required and allow development of more efficient sampling protocols and regimes.     

Simulations inform design of regional occupancy‐based monitoring for a sparsely distributed,territorial species

Sparsely distributed species attract conservation concern, but insufficient information on population trends challenges conservation and funding prioritization. Occupancy‐based monitoring is attractive for these species, but appropriate sampling design and inference depend on particulars of the study system. We employed spatially explicit simulations to identify minimum levels of sampling effort for a regional occupancy monitoring study design, using white‐headed woodpeckers (Picoides albolvartus), a sparsely distributed, territorial species threatened by habitat decline and degradation, as a case study. We compared the original design with commonly proposed alternatives with varying targets of inference (i.e., species range, space use, or abundance) and spatial extent of sampling. Sampling effort needed to achieve adequate power to observe a long‐term population trend (≥80% chance to observe a 2% yearly decline over 20 years) with the previously used study design consisted of annually monitoring ≥120 transects using a single‐survey approach or ≥90 transects surveyed twice per year using a repeat‐survey approach. Designs that shifted inference toward finer‐resolution trends in abundance and extended the spatial extent of sampling by shortening transects, employing a single‐survey approach to monitoring, and incorporating a panel design (33% of units surveyed per year) improved power and reduced error in estimating abundance trends. In contrast, efforts to monitor coarse‐scale trends in species range or space use with repeat surveys provided extremely limited statistical power. Synthesis and applications. Sampling resolutions that approximate home range size, spatially extensive sampling, and designs that target inference of abundance trends rather than range dynamics are probably best suited and most feasible for broad‐scale occupancy‐based monitoring of sparsely distributed territorial animal species.     

群体大小和觅食环境变化对东黑冠长臂猿日移动距离的影响

日移动距离是反映动物觅食努力的重要指标之一,相关研究有助于了解动物对生境的适应策略,对濒危物种的保护至关重要.东黑冠长臂猿(Nomascus nasutus)是一种极度濒危的树栖小型类人猿,主要生活在一夫二妻制的群体中,平均群体大小6.3只,目前对于该物种的日移动距离仍然缺乏足够的科学研究.我们以广西邦亮长臂猿国家级自...     

Inbreeding depression due to mildly deleterious mutations in finite populations: size does matter

We studied the effects of population size on the inbreeding depression and genetic load caused by deleterious mutations at a single locus. Analysis shows how the inbreeding depression decreases as population size becomes smaller and/or the rate of inbreeding increases. This pattern contrasts with that for the load, which increases as population size becomes smaller but decreases as inbreeding rate goes up. The depression and load both approach asymptotic limits when the population size becomes very large or very small. Numerical results show that the transition between the small and the large population regimes is quite rapid, and occurs largely over a range of population sizes that vary by a factor of 10. The effects of drift on inbreeding depression may bias some estimates of the genomic rate of deleterious mutation. These effects could also be important in the evolution of breeding systems in hermaphroditic organisms and in the conservation of endangered populations.     

Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge

Each year, two or three species that had been considered to be extinct are rediscovered. Uncertainty about whether or not a species is extinct is common, because rare and highly threatened species are difficult to detect. Biological traits such as body size and range size are expected to be associated with extinction. However, these traits, together with the intensity of search effort, might influence the probability of detection and extinction differently. This makes statistical analysis of extinction and rediscovery challenging. Here, we use a variant of survival analysis known as cure rate modelling to differentiate factors that influence rediscovery from those that influence extinction. We analyse a global data set of 99 mammals that have been categorized as extinct or possibly extinct. We estimate the probability that each of these mammals is still extant and thus estimate the proportion of missing (presumed extinct) mammals that are incorrectly assigned extinction. We find that body mass and population density are predictors of extinction, and body mass and search effort predict rediscovery. In mammals, extinction rate increases with body mass and population density, and these traits act synergistically to greatly elevate extinction rate in large species that also occurred in formerly dense populations. However, when they remain extant, larger‐bodied missing species are rediscovered sooner than smaller species. Greater search effort increases the probability of rediscovery in larger species of missing mammals, but has a minimal effect on small species, which take longer to be rediscovered, if extant. By separating the effects of species characteristics on extinction and detection, and using models with the assumption that a proportion of missing species will never be rediscovered, our new approach provides estimates of extinction probability in species with few observation records and scant ecological information.     

Linking ecology, behaviour and conservation: does habitat saturation change the mating system of bearded vultures?

The social organization of a population is the consequence of the decisions made by individuals to maximize their fitness, so differences in social systems may arise from differences in ecological conditions. Here, we show how a long-lived species that used to breed monogamously, and at low densities, can change its mating system in response to habitat saturation. We found that a significant proportion of unpaired birds become potential breeders by entering high-quality territories, or by forming polyandrous trios as a strategy to increase their individual performance. However, productivity of territories was reduced when those occupied by breeding pairs changed to trios, suggesting that the third individual was costly. The decision of some individuals to enter into breeding trios as subordinates also had clear negative consequences to population demography. This unusual mating behaviour is thus compromising the conservation effort directed to this endangered species; management to encourage floaters to settle in other suitable but unoccupied areas may be beneficial.     

Occupancy patterns of an apex avian predator across a forest landscape

Apex predators are integral parts of every ecosystem, having top‐down roles in food web maintenance. Understanding the environmental and habitat characteristics associated with predator occurrence is paramount to conservation efforts. However, detecting top order predators can be difficult due to small population sizes and cryptic behaviour. The endangered Tasmanian masked owl (Tyto novaehollandiae castanops) is a nocturnal predator with a distribution understood to be associated with high mature forest cover at broad scales. With the aim to gather monitoring data to inform future conservation effort, we trialled an occupancy survey design to model masked owl occurrence across ~800 km² in the Tasmanian Southern Forests. We conducted 662 visits to assess masked owl occupancy at 160 sites during July–September 2018. Masked owl site occupancy was 12%, and estimated detectability was 0.26 (±0.06 SE). Cumulative detection probability of masked owls over four visits was 0.7. Occupancy modelling suggested owls were more likely to be detected when mean prey count was higher. However, low detection rates hindered the development of confident occupancy predictions. To inform effective conservation of the endangered Tasmanian masked owl, there is a need to develop novel survey techniques that better account for the ecology of this rare, wide‐ranging and cryptic predator. We discuss the potential to combine novel census approaches that exploit different aspects of masked owl ecology to obtain more robust and detailed data.     

A self-consistent approach to paternity and parental effort

We review the relationship between optimal parental effort and paternity, and emphasize the need for a self-consistent approach. A fundamental consistency condition is what we refer to as the conservation of paternity. Every offspring has exactly one father. If a male has a paternity of less than unity, then another male or other males must have gained the lost paternity. Our approach also emphasizes that paternity emerges as the result of interactions between males and females. From this viewpoint, if paternity changes it is because some aspect of the interaction changes, and the correlation between effort and paternity depends on the aspect that has changed. This has implications for comparative analyses of paternity. The conclusions that are drawn about the correlation between effort and paternity within a population depend on, for example, the types of male in the population and how their abilities are correlated. It is easy to construct models that predict negative correlations between effort and paternity.