Vulnerability of global coral reef habitat suitability to ocean warming,acidification and eutrophication

Coral reefs are threatened by global and local stressors. Yet, reefs appear to respond differently to different environmental stressors. Using a global dataset of coral reef occurrence as a proxy for the long‐term adaptation of corals to environmental conditions in combination with global environmental data, we show here how global (warming: sea surface temperature; acidification: aragonite saturation state, Ω_arag) and local (eutrophication: nitrate concentration, and phosphate concentration) stressors influence coral reef habitat suitability. We analyse the relative distance of coral communities to their regional environmental optima. In addition, we calculate the expected change of coral reef habitat suitability across the tropics in relation to an increase of 0.1°C in temperature, an increase of 0.02 μmol/L in nitrate, an increase of 0.01 μmol/L in phosphate and a decrease of 0.04 in Ω_arag. Our findings reveal that only 6% of the reefs worldwide will be unaffected by local and global stressors and can thus act as temporary refugia. Local stressors, driven by nutrient increase, will affect 22% of the reefs worldwide, whereas global stressors will affect 11% of these reefs. The remaining 61% of the reefs will be simultaneously affected by local and global stressors. Appropriate wastewater treatments can mitigate local eutrophication and could increase areas of temporary refugia to 28%, allowing us to ‘buy time’, while international agreements are found to abate global stressors.     

Robust Performance of Marginal Pacific Coral Reef Habitats in Future Climate Scenarios

Coral reef ecosystems are under dual threat from climate change. Increasing sea surface temperatures and thermal stress create environmental limits at low latitudes, and decreasing aragonite saturation state creates environmental limits at high latitudes. This study examines the response of unique coral reef habitats to climate change in the remote Pacific, using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Earth System Model version 1 alongside the species distribution algorithm Maxent. Narrow ranges of physico-chemical variables are used to define unique coral habitats and their performance is tested in future climate scenarios. General loss of coral reef habitat is expected in future climate scenarios and has been shown in previous studies. This study found exactly that for most of the predominant physico-chemical environments. However, certain coral reef habitats considered marginal today at high latitude, along the equator and in the eastern tropical Pacific were found to be quite robust in climate change scenarios. Furthermore, an environmental coral reef refuge previously identified in the central south Pacific near French Polynesia was further reinforced. Studying the response of specific habitats showed that the prevailing conditions of this refuge during the 20^th century shift to a new set of conditions, more characteristic of higher latitude coral reefs in the 20^th century, in future climate scenarios projected to 2100.     

Ocean acidification accelerates net calcium carbonate loss in a coral rubble community

Coral rubble communities are an important yet often overlooked component of a healthy reef ecosystem. The organisms inhabiting reef rubble are primarily bioeroders that contribute to the breakdown and dissolution of carbonate material. While the effects of ocean acidification on calcifying communities have been well studied, there are few studies investigating the response of bioeroding communities to future changes in pH and calcium carbonate saturation state. Using a flow-through pH-stat system, coral rubble pieces with a naturally occurring suite of organisms, along with bleached control rubble pieces, were subjected to three different levels of acidification over an 8-week period. Rates of net carbonate loss in bleached control rubble doubled in the acidification treatments (0.02 vs. 0.04% CaCO₃ d^?1 in ambient vs. moderate and high acidification), and living rubble communities experienced significantly increased rates of net carbonate loss from ambient to high acidification conditions (0.06 vs. 0.10% CaCO₃ d^?1, respectively). Although more experimentation is necessary to understand the long-term response and succession of coral rubble communities under projected conditions, these results suggest that rates of carbonate loss will increase in coral rubble as pH and calcium carbonate saturation states are reduced. This study demonstrates a need to thoroughly investigate the contribution of coral rubble to the overall carbonate budget, reef resilience, recovery, and function under future conditions.     

Coral Community Adaptability to Environmental Change at the Scales of Regions, Reefs and Reef Zones

SYNOPSIS. Projected global increases in temperature, sea level,storminess and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) are likely tocause changes in reef coral communities which the present humangeneration will view as deleterious. It is likely coral communitytrajectories will be influenced as much by the reduction inintervals between extreme events as the projected increasesin means of environmental parameters such as temperature, atmosphericCO₂ and sea-level. Depressed calcification rates in corals causedby reduced aragonite saturation state of water may increasevulnerability of corals to storms. Moreover, reduction in intervalsbetween storms and other extreme events causing mass mortalityin corals (coral predators, diseases, bleaching) are likelyto more frequently "set back" reef coral communities to earlysuccessional stages or alternate states characterized by non-calcifyingbenthos (plants, soft corals, sponges). The greater the areaand the longer the duration of dominance of putative "coral/corallinealgae" zones of coral reefs by non-calcifying stages, the lesswill be the reefs capacity to accrete limestone bulk lockedup in the big skeletal units of late successional stages (i.e.,very large old corals). Averaged over decades to centuries,the effects of such changes on the coral community's carryingcapacity for other biota such as fish are unpredictable. A "shiftingsteady-state mosaic" null model may provide a useful conceptualtool for defining a baseline and tracking changes from thatbaseline through time.     

Suitable Environmental Ranges for Potential Coral Reef Habitats in the Tropical Ocean

Coral reefs are found within a limited range of environmental conditions or tolerance limits. Estimating these limits is a critical prerequisite for understanding the impacts of climate change on the biogeography of coral reefs. Here we used the diagnostic model ReefHab to determine the current environmental tolerance limits for coral reefs and the global distribution of potential coral reef habitats as a function of six factors: temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, aragonite saturation state, and light. To determine these tolerance limits, we extracted maximum and minimum values of all environmental variables in corresponding locations where coral reefs are present. We found that the global, annually averaged tolerance limits for coral reefs are 21.7—29.6 °C for temperature, 28.7—40.4 psu for salinity, 4.51 μmol L^-1 for nitrate, 0.63 μmol L^-1 for phosphate, and 2.82 for aragonite saturation state. The averaged minimum light intensity in coral reefs is 450 μmol photons m^-2 s^-1. The global area of potential reef habitats calculated by the model is 330.5 × 10³ km². Compared with previous studies, the tolerance limits for temperature, salinity, and nutrients have not changed much, whereas the minimum value of aragonite saturation in coral reef waters has decreased from 3.28 to 2.82. The potential reef habitat area calculated with ReefHab is about 121×10³ km² larger than the area estimated from the charted reefs, suggesting that the growth potential of coral reefs is higher than currently observed.     

Climate change and coral reefs: different effects in two high-latitude areas (Arabian Gulf,South Africa)

The findings in this paper show that Arabian Gulf (Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Sharjah) corals have already been measurably affected by climate change and further negative impacts are expected. Corals in South Africa have been only weakly impacted and are expected to persist in this likely refuge. The Arabian Gulf has recently experienced high-frequency recurrences of temperature-related bleaching (1996, 1998, 2002). First evidence may suggest that bleaching patterns in corals changed due to phenotypic adaptation after two strong bleaching events in rapid succession, because Acropora, which during the 1996 and 1998 events always bleached first and suffered heaviest mortality, bleached less than all other corals in 2002 at Sir Abu Nuair and recovered at Jebel Ali and Ras Hasyan. In South Africa, reef corals largely escaped the mass mortalities observed across the tropics in the late 1990s, although bleaching has also increased since 1999. These reefs are protected by local small-scale upwelling events in summer that, if they occur at the right time, keep temperatures below bleaching levels. Both areas, the Arabian Gulf and South Africa, have rich coral faunas but little to no recent reef-framework production. It is possible that many reefs worldwide may have similar dynamics in the future, if the changed climate (recurrence of temperature anomalies, changes in aragonite saturation state, etc.) suppresses sustained reef building at least temporarily. Global climate models predict the possibility of significant environmental changes, including increases in atmospheric temperature, sea-surface temperature (SST), and sea level. Monsoon and El Niño Southeastern Oscillation (ENSO) patterns might change, but climate models are not conclusive. Sea-level rise by up to 0.88 m is expected to be a problem in some low-lying areas, like the southern Arabian Gulf. Ocean aragonite saturation state is predicted to fall throughout the ocean but may not change reef dynamics in the two study areas.     

海洋酸化对珊瑚礁生态系统的影响研究进展

目前,大气CO2浓度的升高已导致海水pH值比工业革命前下降了约0.1,海水碳酸盐平衡体系随之变化,进而影响珊瑚礁生态系统的健康。近年来的研究表明海洋酸化导致造礁石珊瑚幼体补充和群落恢复更加困难,造礁石珊瑚和其它造礁生物(Reef-building organisms)钙化率降低甚至溶解,乃至影响珊瑚礁鱼类的生命活动。虽然海洋酸化对造礁石珊瑚光合作用的影响不显著,但珊瑚-虫黄藻共生体系会受到一定影响。建议选择典型海区进行长期系统监测,结合室内与原位模拟试验,从个体、种群、群落到系统不同层面,运用生理学和分子生物学技术,结合生态学研究手段,综合研究珊瑚的相应响应,以期深入认识海洋酸化对珊瑚礁生态系统健康(例如珊瑚白化)的影响及其效应。     

Environmental controls on the global distribution of shallow‐water coral reefs

Aim Elucidating the environmental limits of coral reefs is central to projecting future impacts of climate change on these ecosystems and their global distribution. Recent developments in species distribution modelling (SDM) and the availability of comprehensive global environmental datasets have provided an opportunity to reassess the environmental factors that control the distribution of coral reefs at the global scale as well as to compare the performance of different SDM techniques. Location Shallow waters world‐wide. Methods The SDM methods used were maximum entropy (Maxent) and two presence/absence methods: classification and regression trees (CART) and boosted regression trees (BRT). The predictive variables considered included sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, aragonite saturation state (Ω_Arag), nutrients, irradiance, water transparency, dust, current speed and intensity of cyclone activity. For many variables both mean and SD were considered, and at weekly, monthly and annually averaged time‐scales. All were transformed to a global 1° × 1° grid to generate coral reef probability maps for comparison with known locations. Model performance was compared in terms of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) scores. Potential geographical bias was explored via misclassification maps of false positive and negative errors on test data. Results Boosted regression trees consistently outperformed other methods, although Maxent also performed acceptably. The dominant environmental predictors were the temperature variables (annual mean SST, and monthly and weekly minimum SST), followed by, and with their relative importance differing between regions, nutrients, light availability and Ω_Arag. No systematic bias in SDM performance was found between major coral provinces, but false negatives were more likely for cells containing ‘marginal’ non‐reef‐forming coral communities, e.g. Bermuda. Main conclusions Agreement between BRT and Maxent models gives predictive confidence for exploring the environmental limits of coral reef ecosystems at a spatial scale relevant to global climate models (c. 1° × 1°). Although SST‐related variables dominate the coral reef distribution models, contributions from nutrients, Ω_Arag and light availability were critical in developing models of reef presence in regions such as the Bahamas, South Pacific and Coral Triangle. The steep response in SST‐driven probabilities at low temperatures indicates that latitudinal expansion of coral reef habitat is very sensitive to global warming.     

Latitudinal variation in coral communities in eastern Australia: a qualitative biophysical model of factors regulating coral reefs

The processes underlying the distributional limits of both corals and coral reefs can be elucidated by examining coral communities at high latitudes. Coral-dominated communities in eastern Australia cover a latitudinal range of >2,500 km, from the northern Great Barrier Reef (11°S) to South West Rocks (31.5°S). Patterns of coral species richness from 11 locations showed a clear separation between the Great Barrier Reef and subtropical sites, with a further abrupt change at around 31°S. Differences in community structure between the Great Barrier Reef and more southern sites were mainly attributable to higher cover of massive corals, branching Acropora, dead coral and coralline algae on the Great Barrier Reef, and higher cover of macroalgae and bare rock at more southern sites. The absence of some major reef-building taxa (i.e., staghorn Acropora and massive Porites) from most subtropical sites coincided with the loss of reef accretion capacity. Despite high cover of hard corals in communities at up to 31°S, only Lord Howe Island contained areas of reef accretion south of the Great Barrier Reef. Factors that have been hypothesized to account for latitudinal changes in coral community structure include water temperature, aragonite saturation, light availability, currents and larval dispersal, competition between corals and other biota including macroalgae, reduced coral growth rates, and failure of coral reproduction or recruitment. These factors do not operate independently of each other, and they interact in complex ways.     

Anticipative management for coral reef ecosystem services in the 21st century

Under projections of global climate change and other stressors, significant changes in the ecology, structure and function of coral reefs are predicted. Current management strategies tend to look to the past to set goals, focusing on halting declines and restoring baseline conditions. Here, we explore a complementary approach to decision making that is based on the anticipation of future changes in ecosystem state, function and services. Reviewing the existing literature and utilizing a scenario planning approach, we explore how the structure of coral reef communities might change in the future in response to global climate change and overfishing. We incorporate uncertainties in our predictions by considering heterogeneity in reef types in relation to structural complexity and primary productivity. We examine 14 ecosystem services provided by reefs, and rate their sensitivity to a range of future scenarios and management options. Our predictions suggest that the efficacy of management is highly dependent on biophysical characteristics and reef state. Reserves are currently widely used and are predicted to remain effective for reefs with high structural complexity. However, when complexity is lost, maximizing service provision requires a broader portfolio of management approaches, including the provision of artificial complexity, coral restoration, fish aggregation devices and herbivore management. Increased use of such management tools will require capacity building and technique refinement and we therefore conclude that diversification of our management toolbox should be considered urgently to prepare for the challenges of managing reefs into the 21st century.     

Will Coral Islands Maintain Their Growth over the Next Century? A Deterministic Model of Sediment Availability at Lady Elliot Island,Great Barrier Reef

A geomorphic assessment of reef system calcification is conducted for past (3200 Ka to present), present and future (2010–2100) time periods. Reef platform sediment production is estimated at 569 m³ yr⁻¹ using rate laws that express gross community carbonate production as a function of seawater aragonite saturation, community composition and rugosity and incorporating estimates of carbonate removal from the reef system. Key carbonate producers including hard coral, crustose coralline algae and Halimeda are mapped accurately (mean R² = 0.81). Community net production estimates correspond closely to independent census-based estimates made in-situ (R² = 0.86). Reef-scale outputs are compared with historic rates of production generated from (i) radiocarbon evidence of island deposition initiation around 3200 years ago, and (ii) island volume calculated from a high resolution island digital elevation model. Contemporary carbonate production rates appear to be remarkably similar to historical values of 573 m³ yr⁻¹. Anticipated future seawater chemistry parameters associated with an RCP8.5 emissions scenario are employed to model rates of net community calcification for the period 2000–2100 on the basis of an inorganic aragonite precipitation law, under the assumption of constant benthic community character. Simulations indicate that carbonate production will decrease linearly to a level of 118 m³ yr⁻¹ by 2100 and that by 2150 aragonite saturation levels may no longer support the positive budgetary status necessary to sustain island accretion. Novel aspects of this assessment include the development of rate law parameters to realistically represent the variable composition of coral reef benthic carbonate producers, incorporation of three dimensional rugosity of the entire reef platform and the coupling of model outputs with both historical radiocarbon dating evidence and forward hydrochemical projections to conduct an assessment of island evolution through time. By combining several lines of evidence in a deterministic manner, an assessment of changes in carbonate production is carried out that has tangible geomorphic implications for sediment availability and associated island evolution.     

Survival and settlement success of coral planulae: independent and synergistic effects of macroalgae and microbes

Restoration of degraded coral reef communities is dependent on successful recruitment and survival of new coral planulae. Degraded reefs are often characterized by high cover of fleshy algae and high microbial densities, complemented by low abundance of coral and coral recruits. Here, we investigated how the presence and abundance of macroalgae and microbes affected recruitment success of a common Hawaiian coral. We found that the presence of algae reduced survivorship and settlement success of planulae. With the addition of the broad-spectrum antibiotic, ampicillin, these negative effects were reversed, suggesting that algae indirectly cause planular mortality by enhancing microbial concentrations or by weakening the coral’s resistance to microbial infections. Algae further reduced recruitment success of corals as planulae preferentially settled on algal surfaces, but later suffered 100% mortality. In contrast to survival, settlement was unsuccessful in treatments containing antibiotics, suggesting that benthic microbes may be necessary to induce settlement. These experiments highlight potential complex interactions that govern the relationships between microbes, algae and corals and emphasize the importance of microbial dynamics in coral reef ecology and restoration. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Synergistic impacts of global warming on the resilience of coral reefs

Recent epizootics have removed important functional species from Caribbean coral reefs and left communities vulnerable to alternative attractors. Global warming will impact reefs further through two mechanisms. A chronic mechanism reduces coral calcification, which can result in depressed somatic growth. An acute mechanism, coral bleaching, causes extreme mortality when sea temperatures become anomalously high. We ask how these two mechanisms interact in driving future reef state (coral cover) and resilience (the probability of a reef remaining within a coral attractor). We find that acute mechanisms have the greatest impact overall, but the nature of the interaction with chronic stress depends on the metric considered. Chronic and acute stress act additively on reef state but form a strong synergy when influencing resilience by intensifying a regime shift. Chronic stress increases the size of the algal basin of attraction (at the expense of the coral basin), whereas coral bleaching pushes the system closer to the algal attractor. Resilience can change faster—and earlier—than a change in reef state. Therefore, we caution against basing management solely on measures of reef state because a loss of resilience can go unnoticed for many years and then become disproportionately more difficult to restore.     

Shifts in coralline algae,macroalgae, and coral juveniles in the Great Barrier Reef associated with present‐day ocean acidification

Seawater acidification from increasing CO₂ is often enhanced in coastal waters due to elevated nutrients and sedimentation. Our understanding of the effects of ocean and coastal acidification on present‐day ecosystems is limited. Here we use data from three independent large‐scale reef monitoring programs to assess coral reef responses associated with changes in mean aragonite saturation state (Ω_ar) in the Great Barrier Reef World Heritage Area (GBR). Spatial declines in mean Ω_ar are associated with monotonic declines in crustose coralline algae (up to 3.1‐fold) and coral juvenile densities (1.3‐fold), while non‐calcifying macroalgae greatly increase (up to 3.2‐fold), additionally to their natural changes across and along the GBR. These three key groups of organisms are important proxies for coral reef health. Our data suggest a tipping point at Ω_ar 3.5–3.6 for these coral reef health indicators. Suspended sediments acted as an additive stressor. The latter suggests that effective water quality management to reduce suspended sediments might locally and temporarily reduce the pressure from ocean acidification on these organisms.     

Nutrient availability affects the response of the calcifying chlorophyte Halimeda opuntia (L.) J.V. Lamouroux to low pH

Atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions cause a decrease in the pH and aragonite saturation state of surface ocean water. As a result, calcifying organisms are expected to suffer under future ocean conditions, but their physiological responses may depend on their nutrient status. Because many coral reefs experience high inorganic nutrient loads or seasonal changes in nutrient availability, reef organisms in localized areas will have to cope with elevated carbon dioxide and changes in inorganic nutrients. Halimeda opuntia is a dominant calcifying primary producer on coral reefs that contributes to coral reef accretion. Therefore, we investigated the carbon and nutrient balance of H. opuntia exposed to elevated carbon dioxide and inorganic nutrients. We measured tissue nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon content as well as the activity of enzymes involved in inorganic carbon uptake and nitrogen assimilation (external carbonic anhydrase and nitrate reductase, respectively). Inorganic carbon content was lower in algae exposed to high CO₂, but calcification rates were not significantly affected by CO₂ or inorganic nutrients. Organic carbon was positively correlated to external carbonic anhydrase activity, while inorganic carbon showed the opposite correlation. Carbon dioxide had a significant effect on tissue nitrogen and organic carbon content, while inorganic nutrients affected tissue phosphorus and N:P ratios. Nitrate reductase activity was highest in algae grown under elevated CO₂ and inorganic nutrient conditions and lowest when phosphate was limiting. In general, we found that enzymatic responses were strongly influenced by nutrient availability, indicating its important role in dictating the local responses of the calcifying primary producer H. opuntia to ocean acidification.     

CO2 partial pressure controls the calcification rate of a coral community

Previous studies have demonstrated that coral and algal calcification is tightly regulated by the calcium carbonate saturation state of seawater. This parameter is likely to decrease in response to the increase of dissolved CO₂ resulting from the global increase of the partial pressure of atmospheric CO₂. We have investigated the response of a coral reef community dominated by scleractinian corals, but also including other calcifying organisms such as calcareous algae, crustaceans, gastropods and echinoderms, and kept in an open‐top mesocosm. Seawater pCO₂ was modified by manipulating the pCO₂ of air used to bubble the mesocosm. The aragonite saturation state (Ω_arag) of the seawater in the mesocosm varied between 1.3 and 5.4. Community calcification decreased as a function of increasing pCO₂ and decreasing Ω_arag. This result is in agreement with previous data collected on scleractinian corals, coralline algae and in a reef mesocosm, even though some of these studies did not manipulate CO₂ directly. Our data suggest that the rate of calcification during the last glacial maximum might have been 114% of the preindustrial rate. Moreover, using the average emission scenario (IS92a) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, we predict that the calcification rate of scleractinian‐dominated communities may decrease by 21% between the pre‐industrial period (year 1880) and the time at which pCO₂ will double (year 2065).     

Calcifying coral abundance near low-pH springs: implications for future ocean acidification

Rising atmospheric CO₂ and its equilibration with surface ocean seawater is lowering both the pH and carbonate saturation state (Ω) of the oceans. Numerous calcifying organisms, including reef-building corals, may be severely impacted by declining aragonite and calcite saturation, but the fate of coral reef ecosystems in response to ocean acidification remains largely unexplored. Naturally low saturation (Ω ~ 0.5) low pH (6.70–7.30) groundwater has been discharging for millennia at localized submarine springs (called “ojos”) at Puerto Morelos, México near the Mesoamerican Reef. This ecosystem provides insights into potential long term responses of coral ecosystems to low saturation conditions. In-situ chemical and biological data indicate that both coral species richness and coral colony size decline with increasing proximity to low-saturation, low-pH waters at the ojo centers. Only three scleractinian coral species (Porites astreoides, Porites divaricata, and Siderastrea radians) occur in undersaturated waters at all ojos examined. Because these three species are rarely major contributors to Caribbean reef framework, these data may indicate that today’s more complex frame-building species may be replaced by smaller, possibly patchy, colonies of only a few species along the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef. The growth of these scleractinian coral species at undersaturated conditions illustrates that the response to ocean acidification is likely to vary across species and environments; thus, our data emphasize the need to better understand the mechanisms of calcification to more accurately predict future impacts of ocean acidification.     

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low‐latitude climatic conditions have no present‐day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo‐Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.     

Modelling the acclimation capacity of coral reefs to a warming ocean

The symbiotic relationship between corals and photosynthetic algae is the foundation of coral reef ecosystems. This relationship breaks down, leading to coral death, when sea temperature exceeds the thermal tolerance of the coral-algae complex. While acclimation via phenotypic plasticity at the organismal level is an important mechanism for corals to cope with global warming, community-based shifts in response to acclimating capacities may give valuable indications about the future of corals at a regional scale. Reliable regional-scale predictions, however, are hampered by uncertainties on the speed with which coral communities will be able to acclimate. Here we present a trait-based, acclimation dynamics model, which we use in combination with observational data, to provide a first, crude estimate of the speed of coral acclimation at the community level and to investigate the effects of different global warming scenarios on three iconic reef ecosystems of the tropics: Great Barrier Reef, South East Asia, and Caribbean. The model predicts that coral acclimation may confer some level of protection by delaying the decline of some reefs such as the Great Barrier Reef. However, the current rates of acclimation will not be sufficient to rescue corals from global warming. Based on our estimates of coral acclimation capacities, the model results suggest substantial declines in coral abundances in all three regions, ranging from 12% to 55%, depending on the region and on the climate change scenario considered. Our results highlight the importance and urgency of precise assessments and quantitative estimates, for example through laboratory experiments, of the natural acclimation capacity of corals and of the speed with which corals may be able to acclimate to global warming.     

Coral reefs modify their seawater carbon chemistry – implications for impacts of ocean acidification

Reviews suggest that that the biogeochemical threshold for sustained coral reef growth will be reached during this century due to ocean acidification caused by increased uptake of atmospheric CO₂. Projections of ocean acidification, however, are based on air‐sea fluxes in the open ocean, and not for shallow‐water systems such as coral reefs. Like the open ocean, reef waters are subject to the chemical forcing of increasing atmospheric pCO₂. However, for reefs with long water residence times, we illustrate that benthic carbon fluxes can drive spatial variation in pH, pCO₂ and aragonite saturation state (Ω_a) that can mask the effects of ocean acidification in some downstream habitats. We use a carbon flux model for photosynthesis, respiration, calcification and dissolution coupled with Lagrangian transport to examine how key groups of calcifiers (zooxanthellate corals) and primary producers (macroalgae) on coral reefs contribute to changes in the seawater carbonate system as a function of water residence time. Analyses based on flume data showed that the carbon fluxes of corals and macroalgae drive Ω_ain opposing directions. Areas dominated by corals elevate pCO₂ and reduce Ω_a, thereby compounding ocean acidification effects in downstream habitats, whereas algal beds draw CO₂ down and elevate Ω_a, potentially offsetting ocean acidification impacts at the local scale. Simulations for two CO₂ scenarios (600 and 900 ppm CO₂) suggested that a potential shift from coral to algal abundance under ocean acidification can lead to improved conditions for calcification in downstream habitats, depending on reef size, water residence time and circulation patterns. Although the carbon fluxes of benthic reef communities cannot significantly counter changes in carbon chemistry at the scale of oceans, they provide a significant mechanism of buffering ocean acidification impacts at the scale of habitat to reef.