Estimating the beginning day of Japanese cedar pollen release under global climate change

This study examined the effects of snowfall on the beginning day of Cryptomeria japonica pollen release and predicted it under global climate change. We used a statistical method in order to investigate when the pollen release would start and how much sooner it would be, by using data on predicted meteorological conditions under global warming in Yamagata City, Japan. Estimation accuracy was improved by multiple regression by using the mean air temperature from January to February and snowfall depth in February. Adding snowfall depth yielded more accurate estimates of the beginning day of pollen release than using air temperature alone. It is possible that the effects of heat insulation and cooling by snow delay the flowering day. Under the predicted global climate change, we expect the beginning day of pollen release to become earlier in Yamagata City. The date would be 8 February in approximately 100 years, compared with 20 February at the earliest now. Eighty years from now the date could be earlier than any date recorded so far.     

Integration of flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology: analysis of their spatial and temporal coherence in Germany (1992–1999)

We studied the possibility of integrating flowering dates in phenology and pollen counts in aerobiology in Germany. Data were analyzed for three pollen types (Betula, Poaceae, Artemisia) at 51 stations with pollen traps, and corresponding phenological flowering dates for 400 adjacent stations (< 25 km) for the years 1992–1993 and 1997–1999. The spatial and temporal coherence of these data sets was investigated by comparing start and peak of the pollen season with local minima and means of plant flowering. Our study revealed that start of birch pollen season occurred on average 5.7 days earlier than local birch flowering. For mugwort and grass, the pollen season started on average after local flowering was observed; mugwort pollen was found 4.8 days later and grass pollen season started almost on the same day (0.6 days later) as local flowering. Whereas the peak of the birch pollen season coincided with the mean flowering dates (0.4 days later), the pollen peaks of the other two species took place much later. On average, the peak of mugwort pollen occurred 15.4 days later than mean local flowering, the peak of grass pollen catches followed 22.6 days after local flowering. The study revealed a great temporal divergence between pollen and flowering dates with an irregular spatial pattern across Germany. Not all pollen catches could be explained by local vegetation flowering. Possible reasons include long-distance transport, pollen contributions of other than phenologically observed species and methodological constraints. The results suggest that further research is needed before using flowering dates in phenology to extrapolate pollen counts.     

Ambrosia pollen in the air of Lublin, Poland

Studies on Ambrosia pollen concentrations were carried out in Lublin in the period 1995–2004. The effects of a number of meteorological factors were analysed. In the first period of the study, the gravimetric method was used (1995–1999), while in the second period, the volumetric method was applied. The results show an increasing trend in the amount of airborne pollen. The Ambrosia pollen season in Lublin lasts from August to October. Over a period of 5 years, the highest number of pollen grains was recorded in September (53%), followed by August (44%) and October (3%). There were wide variations in annual totals. The annual total pollen counts was 167–1180 grains, with the peak value in 2002. Maximum daily pollen concentrations (56–312 pollen grains m⁻³) were recorded in the first half of August and in the first half of September. On the days when high Ambrosia pollen concentrations occurred, the temperature was above 21°C and the winds were mainly from the southeast, south and east. Maximum intradiurnal concentrations of pollen grains occurred in the afternoon hours. These results indicate, to some degree, that Ambrosia pollen is transported for long distances before descent.     

Chilling and heat requirements for the prediction of the beginning of the pollen season of Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertner in Ponferrada (León, Spain)

Winter-flowering trees such as the alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertner) can survive periods of adverse climatic conditions, entering a period of dormancy in the early fall. The end of dormancy and the start of the pollen season require a period of low temperatures followed by another of warm temperatures. These requirements were studied from 1995 to 2002, in order to develop a model to predict the onset of the alder pollen season in Ponferrada (Spain). Chilling accumulation took place from late October to late December or early January. The best result was obtained with a threshold temperature of 6.5 °C and an average of 848 chilling hours (CH). Heat requirements were calculated at maximum temperature, an average 143 growth degree days (GDD) were needed, with a threshold temperature of 0 °C. In order to validate models, predicted values were compared with real values for 2002–2003, 2003–2004 and 2004–2005, years not used in developing the models. Predictions for the pollen-season start-date differed only slightly from observed dates: in 2002–2003 predicted and observed dates were the same, in 2003–2004 there was a difference of 7 days and in 2004–2005 a difference of 3 days.     

Changes in the pollen seasons of the early flowering trees <Emphasis Type="Italic">Alnus</Emphasis> spp. and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Corylus</Emphasis> spp. in Worcester,United Kingdom, 1996–2005

Previous work on Betula spp. (birch) in the UK and at five sites in Europe has shown that pollen seasons for this taxon have tended to become earlier by about 5–10 days per decade in most regions investigated over the last 30 years. This pattern has been linked to the trend to warmer winters and springs in recent years. However, little work has been done to investigate the changes in the pollen seasons for the early flowering trees. Several of these, such as Alnus spp. and Corylus spp., have allergens, which cross-react with those of Betula spp., and so have a priming effect on allergic people. This paper investigates pollen seasons for Alnus spp. and Corylus spp. for the years 1996–2005 at Worcester, in the West Midlands, United Kingdom. Pollen data for daily average counts were collected using a Burkard volumetric trap sited on the exposed roof of a three-storey building. The climate is western maritime. Meteorological data for daily temperatures (maximum and minimum) and rainfall were obtained from the local monitoring sites. The local area up to approximately 10 km surrounding the site is mostly level terrain with some undulating hills and valleys. The local vegetation is mixed farmland and deciduous woodland. The pollen seasons for the two taxa investigated are typically late December or early January to late March. Various ways of defining the start and end of the pollen seasons were considered for these taxa, but the most useful was the 1% method whereby the season is deemed to have started when 1% of the total catch is achieved and to have ended when 99% is reached. The cumulative catches (in grains/m³) for Alnus spp. varied from 698 (2001) to 3,467 (2004). For Corylus spp., they varied from 65 (2001) to 4,933 (2004). The start dates for Alnus spp. showed 39 days difference in the 10 years (earliest 2000 day 21, latest 1996 day 60). The end dates differed by 26 days and the length of season differed by 15 days. The last 4 years in the set had notably higher cumulative counts than the first 2, but there was no trend towards earlier starts. For Corylus spp. start days also differed by 39 days (earliest 1999 day 5, latest 1996 day 44). The end date differed by 35 days and length of season by 26 days. Cumulative counts and lengths of season showed a distinct pattern of alternative high (long) and low (short) years. There is some evidence of a synchronous pattern for Alnus spp.. These patterns show some significant correlations with temperature and rainfall through the autumn, winter and early spring, and some relationships with growth degree 4s and chill units, but the series is too short to discern trends. The analysis has provided insight to the variation in the seasons for these early flowering trees and will form a basis for future work on building predictive models for these taxa.     

Airborne grass pollen in Leiden, The Netherlands: annual variations and trends in quantities and season starts over 26 years

The long-term, 26 years’ data set of observations on daily concentrations of airborne grass pollen in Leiden is analyzed to present the variations and trends in quantities, and season starting dates. Monitoring of airborne pollen has been done continuously at one location, with a volumetric pollen trap. Annual totals of daily average grass-pollen concentrations are within a normal range of an urban site between 3690 and 9277, averagely 5510. The annual totals are irregularly fluctuating from year to year, and show no increasing or decreasing trend. Each year’s seasonal fluctuation is different, probably under the influence of changing weather conditions. The typical grass-pollen month is June. Using the Σ 75 criterium, the average starting date is on 16 May, whereas with the 1% threshold criterium the start of the grass-pollen season averagely is on 3 June. The mean air temperature in the preceding period is taken as the main factor for the timing of the season start. Analyzing the relationships of the two different criteria for the season starts with a number of temperature observation periods, the best relations were found between the mean air temperature in the period 11 April to 20 May and the Σ 75 criterium season start on 16 May (r=−0.78); and between the mean air temperature in May and the 1% threshold criterium season start on 3 June (r=−0.76). Forecasts of the season start which are significantly better than the average starting date are only possible with the mean air temperature up to a few days before the actual start. This limits the practical usefulness of the forecasting system.     

A comparative study of different temperature accumulation methods for predicting the start of the Quercus pollen season in Cordoba (South West Spain)

The aim of the present paper is to study the influence of air temperature on the start of Quercus pollination in Córdoba (Andalusia, Spain). Sixteen years of pollen counts were used. The start date of the pollen season in this period varied between 26^th February and 7^th April. Chilling requirements and heat accumulation were taken into account although no significant correlation between chilling hours and the start date was observed. Five different predictive methods based on heat accumulation were compared in this paper: 1) Number of days over a threshold; 2) Heat Units (accumulated daily mean temperature after deducting a base temperature); 3) Growing Degrees Days (Snyder 1988), as a measure of physiological growing time; 4) Accumulated maximum temperatures; and 5) Mean maximum temperature. Results indicated that the optimum base temperature for heat accumulation was 11 C^o. This threshold was used in the first three methods mentioned above. Good statistical results were obtained with the five methods, yielding high levels of explanation (p～99%). Nevertheless, the most accurate method appeared to be the Growing Degree Days (GDD^o) method, which indicated that a mean of 127.3 GDD^o must be accumulated from the end of the chilling period up to the beginning of the Quercus pollen season in Córdoba (South West Spain). Results were tested for predicting start dates in 1999 and 2000. The predicted dates were only one day after the actual dates.     

The pollen season dynamics and the relationship among some season parameters (start,end, annual total,season phases) in Kraków,Poland, 1991–2008

The dynamics of 15 taxa pollen seasons in Kraków, in 1991–2008 was monitored using a Burkard volumetric spore trap of the Hirst design. The highest daily pollen concentrations were achieved in the first half of May, and they were caused mainly by Betula and Pinus pollen. The second period of the high concentrations took place from the middle of July to the end of August (mainly Urtica pollen). Tree pollen seasons were shorter (18–24 days) in comparison with the most herbaceous pollen seasons (73–89 days), except at Artemisia and Ambrosia seasons (30 and 24 days, respectively). The season phases (percentyles) of the spring and late-summer taxa were the most variable in the consecutive years. The highest annual sums were noted for Urtica, Poaceae (herbaceous pollen seasons) and for Betula, Pinus, Alnus (tree pollen seasons), and the highest variability of annual totals was stated for Urtica, Populus, Fraxinus and the lowest for Ambrosia, Corylus, Poaceae. For the plants that pollinate in the middle of the pollen season (Quercus, Pinus and Rumex), the date of the season start seems not to be related to the season end, while for late pollen seasons, especially for Ambrosia and Artemisia, the statistically negative correlation between the start and the end season dates was found. Additionally, for the most studied taxa, the increase in annual pollen totals was observed. The presented results could be useful for the allergological practice and general botanical knowledge.     

Ragweed and mugwort pollen in Szczecin, Poland

Ragweed (genus Ambrosia) and mugwort (Artemisia vulgaris) pollen grains are known to be very potent aeroallergens, often noted to enter into cross reactions. The aim of the study was to analyse ragweed and mugwort pollen release in Szczecin (western Poland) during the period 2000–2003. Measurements were performed by the volumetric and gravimetric method. Pollen seasons were defined as the periods of 90% of the total catch. Of the 4 years studied, the lowest concentration of ragweed pollen was observed in 2000. In 2000, the annual ragweed pollen count was very high, threefold higher than in 2001. There was a high Ambrosia pollen count in 2003, with the highest daily value of 84 grains/m³. The mugwort pollen season started in the third 10-day period of July and lasted to the end of August in all of the years studied. Analysis of pollen deposition from different Szczecin city’s districts showed that the highest exposure to ragweed pollen allergens occurred in the Majowe district, which is related to the presence of numerous plants of Ambrosia in that district. The mugwort pollen deposition was more abundant in the Żelechowa district, which is an area with villas and gardens. Statistically significant correlations were found between the ragweed pollen count in the air and the maximum wind speed, air temperature and relative humidity and between the mugwort pollen count in the air and air temperature and relative humidity.     

<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Betula</Emphasis> spp. pollen in the atmosphere of Novi Sad (2000–2002)

Pollen of Betula spp. is one of the main European aeroallergens. The aim of this study was to determine characteristics and occurrence of the Betula pollen in Novi Sad atmosphere, based on 3-year observations (2000–2002), and to compare pollen season start dates calculated by different methods. Pollen samples have been collected by Hirst volumetric method with a 7-day Burkard spore trap. Four methods (Sum 75, 2.5%, 30 and 1 pg/m ³) have been used for determination of the start dates of the Betula pollen season and the results have been compared. The total annual pollen sum increased during the observed period. In 2000, 2001 and 2002, the highest daily pollen concentrations were 97, 137 and 1034 pg/m ³, respectively. The earliest Betula pollen season start has been calculated by the 1 pg/m ³ method.     

A method to forecast the start of theBetula, Platanus andQuercus pollen seasons in North London

This paper attempts the prediction of the start of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons in London, UK based on pollen sampling conducted over a 5-year period, 1987–1991. The times at which eight different thresholds of accumulated daily pollen counts (M⁻³) were passed were correlated against heat sums, chill units, accumulated sunshine hours, monthly meteorological parameters and the start dates of earlier pollen seasons to identify significant associations. Few meteorological parameters were significantly correlated with the start dates of the three pollen seasons, the exceptions being significant negative correlations between the average monthly air temperature in the months immediately preceding theBetula andPlatanus pollen season. However, significant relationships were identified between the start dates of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons and the start of theCorylus, Taxus andPopulus pollen seasons with coefficients of determination as high as 98%. These indicator species were then used as predictors to forecast the start of theBetula, Quercus andPlatanus pollen seasons, both individually and in combination with one another, providing levels of explanation of up to 99%.     

The effect of the meteorological factors on the Alnus pollen season in Lublin (Poland)

Alder pollen seasons and the effect of meteorological conditions on daily average pollen counts in the air of Lublin (Poland) were analysed. Alnus pollen grains reach very high concentrations in the atmosphere of this city during the early spring period and the parameters of pollen seasons were very different in the particular years studied. The pollen season lasted on average one month. The highest variation was observed for the peak value and the Seasonal Pollen Index (SPI). The pollen seasons, which started later, had shorter duration. Peak daily average pollen counts and SPI value were higher during the shorter seasons. Similarities in the stages of pollen seasons designated by the percentage method depended on the start date of the pollen season. Season parameters were mainly correlated with thermal conditions at the beginning of the year. Regression analysis was used to predict certain characteristics of the alder pollen season. The highest level of explanation of the variation in Alnus pollen season start and peak dates was obtained in the model using mean temperature in February. The obtained regression models may predict 82% of the variation in the pollen season start date, 73% of the variation in the duration, and 62% in the peak date.     

The influence of air temperature on the starting dates of the pollen season of alnus and populus

In this work we have studied the influence of air temperature on the starting dates of Alnus and Populus pollination in two different climatic regions in Europe: central Italy and The Netherlands. The start of the Alnus pollen season varied between 27th January and 16th February in the Italian stations while in The Netherlands it showed an average delay of about one month. For Populus the beginning of the pollen season was delayed on an average 15 days at Dutch places compared to central Italy. In the former it varied between 14th March and 21st April while in the latter between 28th February and 24th March. Significant correlations exist between the beginning of pollination for these taxa and temperature conditions in the preceding periods. The highest correlations found were with daily mean decade temperature for three decades before the average starting dates of the pollen season. These correlations were better for The Netherlands than for central Italy perhaps because the temperature in Holland is the more prominent meteorological factor (relative to precipitation) compared with central Italy, where precipitation has much influence in winter. This study indicated correlations between the pollination and temperature also during the dormant period in the preceding season.     

Model for forecasting Olea europaea L. airborne pollen in South-West Andalusia, Spain

Data on predicted average and maximum airborne pollen concentrations and the dates on which these maximum values are expected are of undoubted value to allergists and allergy sufferers, as well as to agronomists. This paper reports on the development of predictive models for calculating total annual pollen output, on the basis of pollen and weather data compiled over the last 19 years (1982–2000) for Córdoba (Spain). Models were tested in order to predict the 2000 pollen season; in addition, and in view of the heavy rainfall recorded in spring 2000, the 1982–1998 data set was used to test the model for 1999. The results of the multiple regression analysis show that the variables exerting the greatest influence on the pollen index were rainfall in March and temperatures over the months prior to the flowering period. For prediction of maximum values and dates on which these values might be expected, the start of the pollen season was used as an additional independent variable. Temperature proved the best variable for this prediction. Results improved when the 5-day moving average was taken into account. Testing of the predictive model for 1999 and 2000 yielded fairly similar results. In both cases, the difference between expected and observed pollen data was no greater than 10%. However, significant differences were recorded between forecast and expected maximum and minimum values, owing to the influence of rainfall during the flowering period. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 26 February 2001 / Accepted: 28 February 2001     

Comparison of airborne herb pollen types in Córdoba (Southwestern Spain) and Poznan (Western Poland)

This study sought to compare airborne pollen counts for a number of common herbaceous species (Plantago, Chenopodiaceae–Amaranthaceae, Rumex, and Urticaceae) in two cities with differing weather conditions, Córdoba (Southwestern Spain) and Poznan (Western Poland). Pollen seasons for these species were studied from 1995 to 2005. Aerobiological sampling was performed using a Hirst type 7-day spore trap, in accordance with the procedure developed by the European Aerobiology Network. A Spearman correlation test was used to test for correlations between meteorological parameters and daily airborne pollen counts. The Spearman correlation test and the Wilcoxon signed ranks test were also used to compare mean daily pollen counts for the two study sites. In Córdoba, the pollen season generally started around two months earlier than in Poznan, and also lasted longer. These findings were attributed to the presence of a larger number of species in Córdoba, with overlapping pollen seasons, and also to more favorable weather conditions. Trends in pollen season start dates were fairly stable over the study period, with a slight tendency to delayed onset in Córdoba and a modest advance in start date in Poznan. The pollen season end date also remained reasonably stable over the study, with only a slight tendency for the season to end earlier in Córdoba and later in Poznan. A clear trend towards declining annual pollen counts was recorded over the study period for all pollen types in both cities.     

The effect of air temperature on the starting dates of theUlmus, Platanus andOlea pollen seasons in the SE Iberian Peninsula

A study is made of the effect of air temperature on the start of the pollen seasons of three tree species—Ulmus, Platanus andOlea—in the southeastern Iberian Peninsula. These initial results are based on an aerobiological analysis performed over a 4-year period in the city of Granada, Spain. Sampling was carried out with a Burkard spore trap. The main aim of the present study was to use regression analysis to identify the preseasonal date when these species start to accumulate heat in their floral buds, enabling models to be created that indicate the onset of the pollen season for these taxa. ForUlmus there was no significant correlation between the onset of pollination and the mean temperature during the preceding period, whereasPlatanus presented a significant correlation with mean temperature during the month of January, andOlea with mean temperature during the second fortnight in February and the month of March. ForUlmus, the start of the pollen season ranged between 30 January and 8 February; forPlatanus, between 13 and 17 March; and forOlea, between 20 April and 13 May. The accumulated temperature needed to induce the onset of flowering ranged between 121 and 256°C forUlmus, with values of 428–607°C and 656–881°C forPlatanus andOlea, respectively.     

The influence of the hot and dry summer 2003 on the pollen season in Switzerland

A record-breaking heat wave affected the European continent in summer 2003. In Switzerland, the temperature in June, July and August exceeded the 1961–1990 mean by about 5 °C. These extreme temperatures had significant effects on the pollen production and on the airborne pollen loads. Especially affected was the grass pollen season, which started 1–2 weeks earlier than in the mean. During May and the first part of June the grass pollen production and dispersion was favoured by the warm and dry weather and many days with high pollen concentrations were registered. First water deficiencies occurred in June so that the grasses ceased to grow. The grass pollen season ended 7–33 days earlier than normal. For many of our stations of the Swiss pollen network this had never occurred as early as in 2003. The other herbaceous plants were not affected as much as the grasses. We measured very high Chenopodium and Plantago pollen concentrations, about normal concentrations of Urtica and Rumex and slightly lower Artemisia pollen concentrations than normal. The summer 2003 was exceptional and its reoccurrence is at the moment statistically extremely unlikely. But models of climatologists show that in the future, climate variations will increase and that in the period 2071–2100 about every second summer could be as warm or warmer and as dry or dryer than 2003.     

Airborne ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) pollen concentrations in Croatia, 2002–2004

The aim of this study was to determine the onset, length and end of the ragweed pollen season, taking into account diurnal, day-to-day, monthly and annual pollen variations, the effect of some meteorological parameters on atmospheric pollen concentrations and possible differences in the airborne pollen season and concentration due to sampling site. Airborne pollen was collected at three sites in central Croatia (Zagreb, Samobor and Ivanić Grad) during three pollen seasons (2002–2004). Seven-day Hirst-type volumetric pollen traps were used for pollen sampling. Ragweed pollen was the third most abundant pollen type to occur in the atmosphere of central Croatia. Total Ambrosia pollen concentration was the highest in the 2003 pollen season and the lowest in 2004 at all sampling sites. Maximum emissions were restricted to August and September. Intradiurnal periodicity showed a peak from 1000 to 1200 hours. The concentration of ragweed pollen during the pollen season was greatly influenced by temperature and precipitation: on rainy days accompanied by temperature decline, the air pollen concentration decreased abruptly. The results of this study are aimed at helping to alleviate the symptoms of allergic reactions in individuals with ragweed pollen hypersensitivity, thus improving their quality of life.     

Monitoring of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ambrosia</Emphasis> pollen concentration in the atmosphere of Bratislava (Slovakia) during years 2002–2007

Ambrosia pollen represents a significant allergenic risk for pollen-sensitive people also in Slovakia. The aim of this study was to compare the results of the monitoring of Ambrosia pollen concentrations and pollen seasons in Bratislava during years 2002–2007. Measurements were performed by the volumetric method using Burkard volumetric spore trap at the height of 10 m above ground level. During six monitored years, a total of 11,334 Ambrosia pollen grains per cubic meter of air were recorded. The highest total ragweed pollen amount was detected in 2002 (2,577 pollen grains of the total annual pollen concentration) and the lowest ragweed pollen concentration (1,213 pollen grains) was determined in 2007. However, mentioned year was represented as the year with the longest pollen season among the all monitored years in Bratislava (41 days). The pollen season peak day of 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2006 was recorded at the beginning of September; in 2003 and 2007 the peak was at the second half of August. The highest daily amount of Ambrosia pollen grains (more than 100 grains per cubic meter of air) was in 2002 (12 days). The results can be utilized to help to prevent symptoms of allergic reactions to Ambrosia pollen and improve quality of life during seasonal allergic diseases in ragweed pollen-sensitive people.     

Prediction of the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow, Poland using an 18-year data series

The aim of the study was to construct the model forecasting the birch pollen season characteristics in Cracow on the basis of an 18-year data series. The study was performed using the volumetric method (Lanzoni/Burkard trap). The 98/95 % method was used to calculate the pollen season. The Spearman’s correlation test was applied to find the relationship between the meteorological parameters and pollen season characteristics. To construct the predictive model, the backward stepwise multiple regression analysis was used including the multi-collinearity of variables. The predictive models best fitted the pollen season start and end, especially models containing two independent variables. The peak concentration value was predicted with the higher prediction error. Also the accuracy of the models predicting the pollen season characteristics in 2009 was higher in comparison with 2010. Both, the multi-variable model and one-variable model for the beginning of the pollen season included air temperature during the last 10 days of February, while the multi-variable model also included humidity at the beginning of April. The models forecasting the end of the pollen season were based on temperature in March–April, while the peak day was predicted using the temperature during the last 10 days of March.