Epidemic of mumps in a partially immune population.

The incidence of mumps in vaccinated and nonvaccinated schoolchildren was studied after a recent epidemic. Information was collected by telephone interviews with the parents and a review of the physicians'' records. The vaccine appeared to be effective, for the incidence of mumps in the 145 vaccinated children--5.5%, or 8 cases--was significantly less (P less than 0.001) than the incidence in the 350 children considered susceptible to infection--21.7%, or 76 cases. The percentage of children who had been immunized decreased with increasing age, and acquisition of immunity through natural infection had the reverse trend; thus, the proportions of children susceptible to infection in each age group were about the same, and the age-specific attack rates were similar. Although the mothers were accurate in indicating absence of vaccination, they incorrectly indicated vaccination of their children 43.0% of the time; this error in reporting could influence vaccine administration in older children. Our findings suggest that mumps vaccination may substitute for natural illness in immunizing populations, and that more extensive use of the vaccine over a broader age range is required to prevent similar epidemics in the future.     

Epidemic outbreaks on structured populations

Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analysing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra- and inter-community interactions. Here I introduce and analyze a metapopulation model which accounts for several features observed in real outbreaks. First, I demonstrate that depending on the intra-community expected outbreak size and the fraction of social bridges the epidemic outbreaks die out or there is a finite probability to observe a global epidemics. Second, I show that the global scenario is characterized by resurgent epidemics, their number increasing with increasing the intra-community average distance between individuals. Finally, I present empirical data for the AIDS epidemics supporting the model predictions.     

Selection for recombination in partially self-fertilizing populations

This paper confirms Holden's (1979) suggestion that certain types of fitness interactions between a pair of loci in partially self-fertilizing populations may promote selection for increased recombination between them. Our results are based on both algebraic and computer calculations of the fate of alleles at a third locus, which control the level of recombination between the selected pair. We also show that the behavior of the population mean fitness as a function of recombination fraction is not necessarily an indicator of the direction of selection on recombination in partially selfing populations.     

Epidemic cycles in agricultural populations: a cross-cultural study

A cross-cultural analysis of mortality patterns is of interest to biological anthropologists and genetic epidemiologists. In this paper, we examine four agricultural populations from Costa Rica, Hungary, and the United States in order to determine if they suffered from a cyclical distribution of epidemics. When possible, we look at the mortality time series of adults and children separately. Of the 2 series, only 2 show significant epidemic cycles. Both are in the Hungarian groups and both affect subadults. Otherwise, the Costa Rica, U.S., and adult series of the Hungarian groups do not show any periodicity of mortality peaks. Our results indicate that epidemic cycles are not as ubiquitous in small agricultural groups as the literature would suggest.     

Genealogy of neutral genes in two partially isolated populations

Gene genealogy in two partially isolated populations which diverged at a given time t in the past and have since been exchanging individuals at a constant rate m is studied based upon an analytic method for large t and a simulation method for any t. Particular attention is paid to the conditions under which neutral genes sampled from populations are mono-, para-, and polyphyletic in terms of coalescence (divergence) times of genes. It is shown tha the probability of monophyly is high if M = 2Nm less than 0.5 and T = t/(2N) greater than 1, where N is the size of ancestral and descendant haploid populations, in which case most gene genealogies are likely to be concordant with the population relatedness. This probbility decreases as the sample size of genes increases. On the other hand, the case where the probability of monophyly is low will be either that of M greater than 1 and any T or that of M less than 1 and T less than 1, but the clear distinction between these conditions appears very difficult to make. These results are also examined if the gene genealogy is reconstructed from nucleotide differences. It is then shown that the results based upon coalescence times remain valid if the number of nucleotide differences between any pair of genes is not much smaller than 10. To observe such large nucleotide differences in small populations and therefore infer a reliable gene genealogy, we must examine a fairly long stretch of DNA sequences.     

Optimal enhancement of immune response

MOTIVATION: Therapeutic enhancement of innate immune response to microbial attack is addressed as the optimal control of a dynamic system. Interactions between an invading pathogen and the innate immune system are characterized by four non-linear, ordinary differential equations that describe rates of change of pathogen, plasma cell, and antibody concentrations, and of an indicator of organic health. Without therapy, the dynamic model evidences sub-clinical or clinical decay, chronic stabilization, or unrestrained lethal growth of the pathogen; the response pattern depends on the initial concentration of pathogens in the simulated attack. In the model, immune response can be augmented by therapeutic agents that kill the pathogen directly, that stimulate the production of plasma cells or antibodies, or that enhance organ health. A previous paper demonstrated open-loop optimal control solutions that defeat the pathogen and preserve organ health, given initial conditions that otherwise would be lethal (Stengel et al. (2002)). Therapies based on separate and combined application of the agents were derived by minimizing a quadratic cost function that weighted both system response and control usage, providing implicit control over harmful side effects. RESULTS: We demonstrate the ability of neighboring-optimal feedback control to account for a range of unknown initial conditions and persistent input of pathogens by adjusting the therapy to account for perturbations from the nominal-optimal response history. We examine therapies that combine open-loop control of one agent with closed-loop control of another. We show that optimal control theory points the way toward new protocols for treatment and cure of human diseases. CONTACT: stengel@princeton.edu; rghiglia@princeton.edu; nkulkarn@princeton.edu     

Inbreeding depression due to overdominance in partially self-fertilizing plant populations

The effect of the rate of partial self-fertilization and viability selection on the magnitude of inbreeding depression was investigated for the overdominance genetic model. The influence of these factors was determined for populations with equilibrium genotypic frequencies. Inbreeding depression was measured as the normalized disadvantage in mean viability of selfed progeny as compared to outcrossed progeny. When caused by symmetric homozygous disadvantage at a single locus it is shown always to be less than one-third. Moreover, for fixed rates of self-fertilization, its maximum value is found at intermediate levels of homozygous disadvantage. As the rate of self-fertilization increases, inbreeding depression increases and the homozygote viability that results in maximum depression tends toward one-half the heterozygote viability. Symmetric selection against homozygotes at multiple loci can lead to substantially higher values than selection at a single-locus. As the number of independent loci involved increases, inbreeding depression can reach high levels even though the selfing rate is low. Viability distributions for progenies produced from both random mating and self-fertilization were derived for the case of symmetric selection at independently assorting multiple loci. Distributions of viabilities in progenies resulting from mixtures of selfing and outcrossing were shown to be bimodal when inbreeding depression is high.     

Positive feedback amplification in swarming immune cell populations

Several immune cell types (neutrophils, eosinophils, T cells, and innate-like lymphocytes) display coordinated migration patterns when a population, formed of individually responding cells, moves through inflamed or infected tissues. “Swarming” refers to the process in which a population of migrating leukocytes switches from random motility to highly directed chemotaxis to form local cell clusters. Positive feedback amplification underlies this behavior and results from intercellular communication in the immune cell population. We here highlight recent findings on neutrophil swarming from mouse models, zebrafish larvae, and in vitro platforms for human cells, which together advanced our understanding of the principles and molecular mechanisms that shape immune cell swarming.     

Evolution of advantageous alleles affecting population ecological characteristics in partially inbreeding populations

The fate of advantageous alleles affecting intrinsic growth rate, carrying capacity or intra-specific competitive ability was examined in a partially inbreeding population. Generally, inbreeding had an effect on the evolution of advantageous alleles affecting population ecological characteristics. For example, in a specific underdominant case the number of stable internal equilibria decreased from two to one with only a slight degree of inbreeding. Equilibrium frequencies of stable internal equilibria and stability of fixation equilibria were also affected by the degree of inbreeding. For strictly advantageous alleles, inbreeding had the same qualitative effect on the fixation probability and mean fixation time as predicted in simpler selection models.     

The potential role of Th17 immune responses in coronavirus immunopathology and vaccine-induced immune enhancement

Increasing evidence points to host Th17 inflammatory responses as contributing to the severe lung pathology and mortality of lower respiratory tract infections from coronaviruses. This includes host inflammatory and cytokine responses to COVID-19 caused by the SARS-2 coronavirus (SARS CoV2). From studies conducted in laboratory animals, there are additional concerns about immune enhancement and the role of potential host immunopathology resulting from experimental human COVID-19 vaccines. Here we summarize evidence suggesting there may be partial overlap between the underlying immunopathologic processes linked to both coronavirus infection and vaccination, and a role for Th17 in immune enhancement and eosinophilic pulmonary immunopathology. Such findings help explain the link between viral-vectored coronavirus vaccines and immune enhancement and its reduction through alum adjuvants. Additional research may also clarify links between COVID-19 pulmonary immunopathology and heart disease.     

Stable isotope profiles of partially migratory salmonid populations in Atlantic rivers of Patagonia

In the present study, profiles of stable isotope composition were characterized for two species with partially migratory populations in rivers along the latitudinal gradient of Patagonia, brown trout Salmo trutta and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss . The effects of factors ( e.g. ontogeny of fishes, location, species and fasting) that may influence the stable isotope analysis (SIA) were evaluated, as was SIA evaluated as a tool to assign individual fish to their corresponding ecotype. Anadromous fishes exhibited enriched δ¹⁵N (15·2 ± 1·0‰; mean ± s . d .) and δ¹³C (−19·2 ± 1·3‰) relative to resident fishes'δ¹⁵N (8·8 ± 1·1‰) and δ¹³C (−23·2 ± 2·5‰). For both species, the difference in δ¹⁵N was larger between resident (range 6·8–10·7‰) and anadromous (range 14·3–17·8‰) fishes than that in δ¹³C. Values of δ¹³C, while not as dramatically contrasting in rainbow trout, provided a powerful anadromy marker for brown trout in the region. Increases were found in both δ¹⁵N and δ¹³C during the spawning migration of anadromous rainbow trout, most likely due to fasting. Differences in stable isotopes between location, size and species were found, suggesting different stable isotopes base levels in freshwater environments and different trophic levels and feeding location of anadromous populations. The SIA was demonstrated as a powerful tool for ecotype discrimination in Patagonian Rivers, overriding any effect of sampling location, size or species.     

Apoptosis-mediated enhancement of DNA-raised immune responses by mutant caspases

Apoptotic bodies can be used to target delivery of DNA-expressed immunogens into professional antigen-presenting cells (APCs). Here we show that antigen-laden apoptotic bodies created by vectors co-expressing influenza virus hemagglutinin (HA) or nucleoprotein (NP) genes and mutant caspase genes markedly increased T-cell responses. Both CD8 and CD4 T-cell responses were affected. The adjuvant activity was restricted to partially inactivated caspases that allowed immunogen expression before the generation of apoptotic bodies. Active-site mutants of murine caspase 2 and an autocatalytic chimera of murine caspase 2 prodomain and human caspase 3 induced apoptosis that did not interfere with immunogen expression. The adjuvant activity also enhanced B-cell responses, but to a lesser extent than T-cell responses. The large increases in T-cell responses represent one of the strongest effects to date of a DNA adjuvant on cellular immunity.     

Variation in performance of western flower thrips populations on susceptible and partially resistant cucumber

Biotypic variation is of major concern in breeding for host plant resistance to insects. The existence or development of aggressive biotypes can lead to a rapid break-down of host plant resistance. Therefore the study of biotypic variation should be included in breeding programs for resistance to insects. In the present study we measured the reproduction of randomly collected females of ten different populations of the insect herbivore Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande) (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) on one susceptible and two resistant cucumber (Cucumis sativus L.) accessions. Significant differences between thrips populations were observed on all three cucumber accessions. None of the populations had a significantly higher reproduction than the Dutch reference population NL1. For three populations, the Dutch population NL1, a population from New Zealand (NZ), and an Italian population (IT), partial life history parameters, such as reproduction rate, developmental time and survival were determined and the relative rate of increase r _r was calculated. On all three cucumber accessions the r _r-value of population NZ was lower than of populations NL1 and IT. It is concluded that there is biotypic variation in F. occidentalis with regard to performance on cucumber plants with different levels of resistance. Reproduction is a good criterion for differentiating biotypes of F. occidentalis on cucumber.     

Epidemic and demographic interaction in the spread of potentially fatal diseases in growing populations.

The spread of a potentially fatal infectious disease is considered in a host population that would increase exponentially in the absence of the disease. Taking into account how the effective contact rate C(N) depends on the population size N, the model demonstrates that demographic and epidemiological conclusions depend crucially on the properties of the contact function C. Conditions are given for the following scenarios to occur: (i) the disease spreads at a lower rate than the populations grows and does not modify the population growth rate: (ii) the disease initially spreads at a faster rate than the population grows and lowers the population growth rate in the long run and the following three subscenarios are possible: (iia) the population still grows exponentially, but at a slower rate; (iib) population growth is limited, but the population size does not decay; (iic) population increase is converted into population decrease.     

Experimental amebiasis: immunohistochemical study of immune cell populations

Distribution of immune cell populations was studied in a C3H/HeJ mouse model of intestinal amebiasis from 5 to 60 days post-inoculation with Entamoeba histolytica, using immunoperoxidase techniques. At various time intervals, the ceca from mice were fixed in 10% formalin, dehydrated, embedded and sectioned at 5 microm. Sections were incubated with conjugated peroxidase-labelled antibodies to mouse IgA, IgM, and IgG. Color was developed with 3, 3'-diaminobenzidine tetrahydrochloride (DAB)/H2O2 solution. CD3, CD4, and CD8 cells, as well as neutrophils were detected by reacting with biotin-conjugated anti-mouse CD3, CD4, CD8, and CD11 monoclonal antibodies, followed by their incubation with avidin-peroxidase and color development with DAB/H2O2 solution. Erythrocin B and toluidine blue were used to stain eosinophils and Mast cells, respectively. It was observed that the IgA+ plasma cell was the dominating immune cell present in the mucosa, although eosinophils, neutrophils, CD3+, CD4+, CD8+, IgM+, IgG+ cells and Mast cells were also seen. Results of this study suggest that infiltration of immune cells at the mucosal surface during intestinal amebiasis might be important in the defense against this parasite.     

Cross-infection enhancement among African flaviviruses by immune mouse ascitic fluids

Cross-infection enhancement of seven African flaviviruses by subneutralising concentrations of antibody in immune ascitic fluids was investigated in P388D1 cell culture. Infection by all the seven flaviviruses tested was enhanced by homologous and at least one of six heterologous immune mouse ascitic fluids (IMAF) tested. Enhancement ratios and enhancing antibody titres were higher in homologous than in heterologous enhancement. Zika, Wesselsbron, Uganda S and West Nile viruses were enhanced in culture by all the IMAF tested. Enhancement of Dakar bat and Yellow fever viruses was produced by five heterologous IMAF, but Potiskum virus was enhanced by one heterologous flavivirus antibody. The antibody to Potiskum virus was the most potent mediator of heterologous infection enhancement; all six heterologous flaviviruses were markedly enhanced by this antibody.     

Fixation of advantageous alleles in partially self-fertilizing populations. The effect of different selection modes

The expected fixation probability of an advantageous allele was examined in a partially self-fertilizing hermaphroditic plant species using the diffusion approximation. The selective advantage of the advantageous allele was assumed to be increased viability, increased fecundity, or an increase in male fitness. The mode of selection, as well as the selfing rate, the population size, and the dominance of the advantageous allele, affect the fixation probability of the allele. In general it was found that increases in selfing rate decrease the fixation probability under male sexual selection, increase fixation probability under fecundity selection, and increase when recessive and decrease when dominant under viability selection. In some cases the highest fixation probability of advantageous alleles under fecundity or under male sexual selection occurred at an intermediary selfing rate. The expected mean fixation times of the advantageous allele were also examined using the diffusion approximation.