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1.
    
When establishing a treatment in clinical trials, it is important to evaluate both effectiveness and toxicity. In phase II clinical trials, multinomial data are collected in m‐stage designs, especially in two‐stage () design. Exact tests on two proportions, for the response rate and for the nontoxicity rate, should be employed due to limited sample sizes. However, existing tests use certain parameter configurations at the boundary of null hypothesis space to determine rejection regions without showing that the maximum Type I error rate is achieved at the boundary of null hypothesis. In this paper, we show that the power function for each test in a large family of tests is nondecreasing in both and ; identify the parameter configurations at which the maximum Type I error rate and the minimum power are achieved and derive level‐α tests; provide optimal two‐stage designs with the least expected total sample size and the optimization algorithm; and extend the results to the case of . Some R‐codes are given in the Supporting Information.  相似文献   

2.
    
This report explores how the heterogeneity of variances affects randomization tests used to evaluate differences in the asymptotic population growth rate, λ. The probability of Type I error was calculated in four scenarios for populations with identical λ but different variance of λ: (1) Populations have different projection matrices: the same λ may be obtained from different sets of vital rates, which gives room for different variances of λ. (2) Populations have identical projection matrices but reproductive schemes differ and fecundity in one of the populations has a larger associated variance. The two other scenarios evaluate a sampling artifact as responsible for heterogeneity of variances. The same population is sampled twice, (3) with the same sampling design, or (4) with different sampling effort for different stages. Randomization tests were done with increasing differences in sample size between the two populations. This implies additional differences in the variance of λ. The probability of Type I error keeps at the nominal significance level (α = .05) in Scenario 3 and with identical sample sizes in the others. Tests were too liberal, or conservative, under a combination of variance heterogeneity and different sample sizes. Increased differences in sample size exacerbated the difference between observed Type I error and the nominal significance level. Type I error increases or decreases depending on which population has a larger sample size, the population with the smallest or the largest variance. However, by their own, sample size is not responsible for changes in Type I errors.  相似文献   

3.
细胞程序性死亡(programmed cell death,PCD)一直被看做是细胞凋亡(apoptosis).随着细胞生物学研究的深入,新的细胞死亡途径逐渐被揭示出来,如胀亡、自噬、副凋亡等.这些通路有些是caspase依赖的,有些不依赖于caspase途径.在细胞程序性死亡过程中,各种通路不是单独起作用的,而是相互交联的,有彼此重叠的机制出现.目前,Clarke形态学分类法是得到大多数学者认可的细胞程序性死亡的分类方式.按照该分类法,可将PCD分为3大类,即:Ⅰ型细胞程序性死亡、Ⅱ型细胞程序性死亡和Ⅲ型细胞程序性死亡.  相似文献   

4.
Statistical power in physical anthropology: a technical report   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
A statistical power analysis of The American Journal of Physical Anthropology (Volume 44, 1976) was conducted. Twenty-five articles, which included 3,304 major significance tests, constituted the final sample. Resultant power estimates of 0.38, 0.62, and 0.81, corresponding to small, medium, and large population effects respectively, were obtained. Although the medium effect size estimate falls short of the recommended 0.80 level, the statistical power of physical anthropological research fares well relative to several of the social scientific fields of inquiry.  相似文献   

5.
Increasingly, environmental managers attempt to incorporate precautionary principles into decision making. In any quantitative analysis of impacts, precaution is closely related to the power of the analysis to detect an impact. Designs of sampling to detect impacts are, however, complex because of natural spatial and temporal variability and the intrinsic nature of the statistical interactions which define impacts. Here, pulse and press responses and impacts that affect time courses (temporal variance) were modelled to determine the influences of increasing temporal replication—sampling more times in each of several longer periods before and again after an impact.Increasing the number of control or reference locations and number of replicate sample units at each time and place of sampling investigated the influence of spatial replication on power. From numerous scenarios of impacts, with or without natural spatial and temporal interactions (i.e. not caused by an impact), general recommendations are possible. Detecting press impacts requires maximal numbers of control locations. Shorter-term pulse impacts are best detected when the number of periods sampled is maximized. Impacts causing changes in temporal variance are most likely to be detected by sampling with the greatest possible number of periods or times within periods.To allow precautionary decision making, the type of predicted impact should be specified with its magnitude and duration. Only then can sampling be designed to be powerful, thereby allowing precautionary concepts to be invoked.  相似文献   

6.
In the environmental health literature, errors in interpreting studies or data are not infrequent. Many are of the Type II variety. Common solecisms of this type are: treating the criterion of p < 0.05 as a sacrament; demanding complete confounder control; arguing for the existence of phantom confounders; arguing that the effect size is trivial; building nonveridical models; arguing for no effect from inadequate sample size; demanding causal proof; arguing that causality is reversed; conducting a ballot of published studies. These are examined in this paper.  相似文献   

7.
    
There are many common misapprehensions about statistics that occur in the literature. We are sure that the three misapprehensions we deal with in this short review are widespread. They concern:
  • 1) what P values mean;
  • 2) what an insignificant result means, and what it does not mean; the question of the ‘power’ of a statistical test;
  • 3) the difference between importance and statistical significance.
We produce no formulae or recipes for dealing with particular situations, instead we concentrate on the commonsense use of simple statistics. We emphasise that if the use of any but the simplest statistics is intended, it is much better to get proper statistical help before starting experiments, rather than afterwards. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
细菌脂肪酶是一类重要的工业用酶,其分泌系统有着严谨的机制。革兰阳性细菌利用Sec-转运系统使脂肪酶跨过质膜完成分泌;革兰氏阴性细菌的外泌蛋白通过Sec-转运系统、Tat-转运系统或其他机制跨越内膜后,还必须利用Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型、Ⅲ型、Ⅳ型与Ⅴ型分泌系统来完成跨外膜分泌。详细介绍细菌脂肪酶分泌主要依赖的Sec-或Tat-跨内膜的转运系统及革兰氏阴性细菌的Ⅰ型、Ⅱ型与Ⅴ型自分泌系统的3种不同分泌方式。细菌脂肪酶分泌的研究对人们认识其分泌机制,并利用基因工程的手段提高其外泌产量等具有重要的指导意义。  相似文献   

9.
    
Multiple test procedures are usually compared on various aspects of error control and power. Power is measured as some function of the number of false hypotheses correctly identified as false. However, given equal numbers of rejected false hypotheses, the pattern of rejections, i.e. the particular set of false hypotheses identified, may be crucial in interpreting the results for potential application.In an important area of application, comparisons among a set of treatments based on random samples from populations, two different approaches, cluster analysis and model selection, deal implicitly with such patterns, while traditional multiple testing procedures generally focus on the outcomes of subset and pairwise equality hypothesis tests, without considering the overall pattern of results in comparing methods. An important feature involving the pattern of rejections is their relevance for dividing the treatments into distinct subsets based on some parameter of interest, for example their means. This paper introduces some new measures relating to the potential of methods for achieving such divisions. Following Hartley (1955), sets of treatments with equal parameter values will be called clusters. Because it is necessary to distinguish between clusters in the populations and clustering in sample outcomes, the population clusters will be referred to as P -clusters; any related concepts defined in terms of the sample outcome will be referred to with the prefix outcome. Outcomes of multiple comparison procedures will be studied in terms of their probabilities of leading to separation of treatments into outcome clusters, with various measures relating to the number of such outcome clusters and the proportion of true vs. false outcome clusters. The definitions of true and false outcome clusters and related concepts, and the approach taken here, is in the tradition of hypothesis testing with attention to overall error control and power, but with added consideration of cluster separation potential.The pattern approach will be illustrated by comparing two methods with apparent FDR control but with different ways of ordering outcomes for potential significance: The original Benjamini-Hochberg (1995) procedure (BH), and the Newman-Keuls (Newman, 1939; Keuls, 1952) procedure (NK).  相似文献   

10.
    
The Mantel test, based on comparisons of distance matrices, is commonly employed in comparative biology, but its statistical properties in this context are unknown. Here, we evaluate the performance of the Mantel test for two applications in comparative biology: testing for phylogenetic signal, and testing for an evolutionary correlation between two characters. We find that the Mantel test has poor performance compared to alternative methods, including low power and, under some circumstances, inflated type‐I error. We identify a remedy for the inflated type‐I error of three‐way Mantel tests using phylogenetic permutations; however, this test still has considerably lower power than independent contrasts. We recommend that use of the Mantel test should be restricted to cases in which data can only be expressed as pairwise distances among taxa.  相似文献   

11.
There is now a substantial body of literature documenting the detectability of plants and animals under standard survey conditions. Despite the evidence that many flora and fauna species have detection probabilities of less than one, it is still the default assumption of most environmental impact assessment processes that if a species is present, it will be detected. Here we briefly review a number of existing studies that have estimated the survey effort necessary to detect animal species, based on what is known about their detection rates in standard surveys. We then propose a novel method, based on failure‐time analysis, for quantifying the detectability of and determining appropriate survey effort for plant species during flora surveys. We provide computer code for implementing the method in the Bayesian freeware WinBUGS. Methods for estimating detectability can be used to inform minimum survey requirements and have important applications in environmental impact assessment and monitoring.  相似文献   

12.
Structure-guided design led to the discovery of novel chemical scaffolds for B-Raf inhibitors. Both type I and type II kinase inhibitors have been explored and lead compounds with good potency and excellent selectivity have been identified.  相似文献   

13.
Statistically nonsignificant (p > .05) results from a null hypothesis significance test (NHST) are often mistakenly interpreted as evidence that the null hypothesis is true—that there is “no effect” or “no difference.” However, many of these results occur because the study had low statistical power to detect an effect. Power below 50% is common, in which case a result of no statistical significance is more likely to be incorrect than correct. The inference of “no effect” is not valid even if power is high. NHST assumes that the null hypothesis is true; p is the probability of the data under the assumption that there is no effect. A statistical test cannot confirm what it assumes. These incorrect statistical inferences could be eliminated if decisions based on p values were replaced by a biological evaluation of effect sizes and their confidence intervals. For a single study, the observed effect size is the best estimate of the population effect size, regardless of the p value. Unlike p values, confidence intervals provide information about the precision of the observed effect. In the biomedical and pharmacology literature, methods have been developed to evaluate whether effects are “equivalent,” rather than zero, as tested with NHST. These methods could be used by biological anthropologists to evaluate the presence or absence of meaningful biological effects. Most of what appears to be known about no difference or no effect between sexes, between populations, between treatments, and other circumstances in the biological anthropology literature is based on invalid statistical inference.  相似文献   

14.
  总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Cui L  Hung HM  Wang SJ 《Biometrics》1999,55(3):853-857
In group sequential clinical trials, sample size reestimation can be a complicated issue when it allows for change of sample size to be influenced by an observed sample path. Our simulation studies show that increasing sample size based on an interim estimate of the treatment difference can substantially inflate the probability of type I error in most practical situations. A new group sequential test procedure is developed by modifying the weights used in the traditional repeated significance two-sample mean test. The new test has the type I error probability preserved at the target level and can provide a substantial gain in power with the increase of sample size. Generalization of the new procedure is discussed.  相似文献   

15.
    
We consider the problem treated by Simes of testing the overall null hypothesis formed by the intersection of a set of elementary null hypotheses based on ordered p‐values of the associated test statistics. The Simes test uses critical constants that do not need tabulation. Cai and Sarkar gave a method to compute generalized Simes critical constants which improve upon the power of the Simes test when more than a few hypotheses are false. The Simes constants can be viewed as the first order (requiring solution of a linear equation) and the Cai‐Sarkar constants as the second order (requiring solution of a quadratic equation) constants. We extend the method to third order (requiring solution of a cubic equation) constants, and also offer an extension to an arbitrary kth order. We show by simulation that the third order constants are more powerful than the second order constants for testing the overall null hypothesis in most cases. However, there are some drawbacks associated with these higher order constants especially for , which limits their practical usefulness.  相似文献   

16.
    
Pairwise comparison procedures are frequently applied to analyze experimental results. In particular, practitioners in the area of medical researches often encounter situations which require these statistical techniques to compare various treatments. In this article, we focus on pairwise comparison procedures in a two‐factor design, where comparisons of one factor are made simultaneously for each level of another factor. For example, several new drugs to treat a certain cancer are being compared for both male and female patients. Previous research efforts were mainly devoted to models with homogeneous variances. The current paper is to address more common scenario where group variances are heterogeneous.  相似文献   

17.
外来生物入侵是继生境破坏后造成生物多样性丧失的第二大威胁因素, 已对入侵地的生态安全、经济和社会发展及人类健康等造成严重负面影响, 成为21世纪五大全球性环境问题之一。作为水产养殖、航运和水生宠物交易大国, 我国水生生态系统的生物入侵问题尤为严重。研究表明, 系统地构建并应用早期监测预警技术是防控水生生态系统生物入侵最有效的途径。和陆生生物相比, 水生生物群落的物种繁多、群落结构复杂、生物形体微小且在入侵初期群体规模极小、隐匿于水下、可用于物种鉴定的外部形态缺乏, 使得在水生生态系统中构建并应用早期监测和预警体系在技术层面更具挑战。随着高通量测序技术的快速发展, 环境DNA-宏条形码技术成为构建水生生态系统入侵生物早期监测与预警技术的首选。本文主要综述了基于环境DNA-宏条形码技术的水生生态系统入侵生物的早期监测与预警技术方法; 解析了环境DNA-宏条形码监测系统的应用现状、技术优势; 着重探讨了影响监测结果准确性的I型和II型错误及其产生原因, 并为避免两类错误提供了可行的优化/改进方案; 最后对该方法在水生入侵生物监测中的应用前景进行了展望。  相似文献   

18.
    
The accelerated failure time model is presented as an alternative to the proportional hazard model in the analysis of survival data. We investigate the effect of covariates omission in the case of applying a Weibull accelerated failure time model. In an uncensored setting, the asymptotic bias of the treatment effect is theoretically zero when important covariates are omitted; however, the asymptotic variance estimator of the treatment effect could be biased and then the size of the Wald test for the treatment effect is likely to exceed the nominal level. In some cases, the test size could be more than twice the nominal level. In a simulation study, in both censored and uncensored settings, Type I error for the test of the treatment effect was likely inflated when the prognostic covariates are omitted. This work remarks the careless use of the accelerated failure time model. We recommend the use of the robust sandwich variance estimator in order to avoid the inflation of the Type I error in the accelerated failure time model, although the robust variance is not commonly used in the survival data analyses.  相似文献   

19.
20.
Genotypes produced from samples collected non-invasively in harsh field conditions often lack the full complement of data from the selected microsatellite loci. The application to genetic mark-recapture methodology in wildlife species can therefore be prone to misidentifications leading to both ‘true non-recaptures’ being falsely accepted as recaptures (Type I errors) and ‘true recaptures’ being undetected (Type II errors). Here we present a new likelihood method that allows every pairwise genotype comparison to be evaluated independently. We apply this method to determine the total number of recaptures by estimating and optimising the balance between Type I errors and Type II errors. We show through simulation that the standard error of recapture estimates can be minimised through our algorithms. Interestingly, the precision of our recapture estimates actually improved when we included individuals with missing genotypes, as this increased the number of pairwise comparisons potentially uncovering more recaptures. Simulations suggest that the method is tolerant to per locus error rates of up to 5% per locus and can theoretically work in datasets with as little as 60% of loci genotyped. Our methods can be implemented in datasets where standard mismatch analyses fail to distinguish recaptures. Finally, we show that by assigning a low Type I error rate to our matching algorithms we can generate a dataset of individuals of known capture histories that is suitable for the downstream analysis with traditional mark-recapture methods.  相似文献   

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