Inferring dispersal: a Bayesian approach to phylogeny-based island biogeography, with special reference to the Canary Islands

Aim Oceanic islands represent a special challenge to historical biogeographers because dispersal is typically the dominant process while most existing methods are based on vicariance. Here, we describe a new Bayesian approach to island biogeography that estimates island carrying capacities and dispersal rates based on simple Markov models of biogeographical processes. This is done in the context of simultaneous analysis of phylogenetic and distributional data across groups, accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty and making parameter estimates more robust. We test our models on an empirical data set of published phylogenies of Canary Island organisms to examine overall dispersal rates and correlation of rates with explanatory factors such as geographic proximity and area size. Location Oceanic archipelagos with special reference to the Atlantic Canary Islands. Methods The Canary Islands were divided into three island‐groups, corresponding to the main magmatism periods in the formation of the archipelago, while non‐Canarian distributions were grouped into a fourth ‘mainland‐island’. Dispersal between island groups, which were assumed constant through time, was modelled as a homogeneous, time‐reversible Markov process, analogous to the standard models of DNA evolution. The stationary state frequencies in these models reflect the relative carrying capacity of the islands, while the exchangeability (rate) parameters reflect the relative dispersal rates between islands. We examined models of increasing complexity: Jukes–Cantor (JC), Equal‐in, and General Time Reversible (GTR), with or without the assumption of stepping‐stone dispersal. The data consisted of 13 Canarian phylogenies: 954 individuals representing 393 taxonomic (morphological) entities. Each group was allowed to evolve under its own DNA model, with the island‐model shared across groups. Posterior distributions on island model parameters were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling, as implemented in MrBayes 4.0, and Bayes Factors were used to compare models. Results The Equal‐in step, the GTR, and the GTR step dispersal models showed the best fit to the data. In the Equal‐in and GTR models, the largest carrying capacity was estimated for the mainland, followed by the central islands and the western islands, with the eastern islands having the smallest carrying capacity. The relative dispersal rate was highest between the central and eastern islands, and between the central and western islands. The exchange with the mainland was rare in comparison. Main conclusions Our results confirm those of earlier studies suggesting that inter‐island dispersal within the Canary Island archipelago has been more important in explaining diversification within lineages than dispersal between the continent and the islands, despite the close proximity to North Africa. The low carrying capacity of the eastern islands, uncorrelated with their size or age, fits well with the idea of a historically depauperate biota in these islands but more sophisticated models are needed to address the possible influence of major recent extinction events. The island models explored here can easily be extended to address other problems in historical biogeography, such as dispersal among areas in continental settings or reticulate area relationships.     

Phylogeny and co‐occurrence of mammal species on Southeast Asian islands

Aim Islands have often been used as model systems in community ecology. The incorporation of information on phylogenetic relatedness of species in studies of island assemblage structure is still uncommon, but could provide valuable insights into the processes of island community assembly. We propose six models of island community assembly that make different predictions about the associations between co‐occurrences of species pairs on islands, phylogenetic relatedness and ecological similarity. We then test these models using data on mammals of Southeast Asian islands. Location Two hundred and forty islands of the Sundaland region of Southeast Asia. Methods We quantified the co‐occurrence of species pairs on islands, and identified pairs that co‐occur more frequently (positive co‐occurrence) or less frequently (negative co‐occurrence) than expected under null models. We then examined the distributions of these significantly deviating pairs with respect to phylogenetic relatedness and ecological differentiation, and compared these patterns with those predicted by the six community assembly models. We used permutation regression to test whether co‐occurrence patterns are predicted by relatedness, body size difference or difference in diet quality. Separate co‐occurrence matrices were analysed in this way for seven mammal families and four smaller subsets of the islands of Sundaland. Results In many matrices, average numbers of negative co‐occurrences were higher than expected under null models. This is consistent with assemblage structuring by competition, but may also result from low geographic overlap of species pairs, which contributes to negative co‐occurrences at the archipelago‐wide level. Distributions of species pairs within plots of phylogenetic distance × ecological differentiation were consistent with competition, habitat filtering or within‐island speciation models, depending on the taxon. Regressions indicated that co‐occurrence was more likely among closely related species pairs within the Viverridae and Sciuridae, but in most matrices phylogenetic distance was unrelated to co‐occurrence. Main conclusions Simple deterministic models linking co‐occurrence with phylogeny and ecology are a useful framework for interpreting distributions and assemblage structure of island species. However, island assemblages in Sundaland have probably been shaped by a complex idiosyncratic set of interacting ecological and evolutionary processes, limiting the predictive power of such models.     

Disturbed island ecology

The natural occurrence of significant disturbances to the operation of insular ecosystems has tended to be downplayed in the development of island ecological theory. Despite the importance of events such as Hurricane Hugo, which in 1989 affected islands in the Caribbean, islands that are disturbed tend to be viewed as deviants from the `true path' described by equilibrium models. However, particularly with organisms of long generation times, it is questionable whether such models are applicable. This may be as important for wildlife managers to take account of as for theorists. Disturbance regime should be incorporated into island ecological models alongside other ecological factors structuring colonization patterns and turnover.     

Island tameness: living on islands reduces flight initiation distance

One of Darwin''s most widely known conjectures is that prey are tame on remote islands, where mammalian predators are absent. Many species appear to permit close approach on such islands, but no comparative studies have demonstrated reduced wariness quantified as flight initiation distance (FID; i.e. predator–prey distance when the prey begins to flee) in comparison with mainland relatives. We used the phylogenetic comparative method to assess influence of distance from the mainland and island area on FID of 66 lizard species. Because body size and predator approach speed affect predation risk, we included these as independent variables. Multiple regression showed that FID decreases as distance from mainland increases and is shorter in island than mainland populations. Although FID increased as area increased in some models, collinearity made it difficult to separate effects of area from distance and island occupancy. FID increases as SVL increases and approach speed increases; these effects are statistically independent of effects of distance to mainland and island occupancy. Ordinary least-squares models fit the data better than phylogenetic regressions, indicating little or no phylogenetic signal in residual FID after accounting for the independent variables. Our results demonstrate that island tameness is a real phenomenon in lizards.     

Species pool structure determines the level of generalism of island parasitoid faunas

Aim To examine whether island parasitoid faunas are biased towards generalists when compared with the mainland and their species pool, and to evaluate the effects of climate, island characteristics and regional factors on the relative proportions of idiobionts (i.e. generalists) and koinobionts (i.e. specialists) of two parasitic wasp families, Braconidae and Ichneumonidae. Location Seventy‐three archipelagos distributed world‐wide. Methods We used data on the distribution and biology obtained from a digital catalogue and several literature sources. We related level of generalism, measured as the ratio between the number of idiobiont and koinobiont species, to climatic, physiographic and regional factors using generalized linear models. We compared models by means of Akaike weighting, and evaluated the spatial structure of their residuals. We used partial regressions to determine whether the final models account for all latitudinal structure in the level of generalism. Results Islands host comparatively more idiobionts than continental areas. Although there is a latitudinal gradient in the level of generalism of island faunas correlating with both environmental factors and island characteristics, the most important determinant of island community structure is their source pool. This effect is stronger for ichneumonids, where generalism is higher in the Indomalayan region, arguably due to the higher diversity of endophytic hosts in its large rain forests. Main conclusions The level of generalism of island parasitoid faunas is largely constrained by regional factors, namely by the structure of the species pool, which emphasizes the importance of including regional processes in our understanding of the functioning of ecological communities. The fact that generalist species are more predominant in islands with a large cover of rain forests pinpoints the importance of the indirect effects of ecological requirements on community structure, highlighting the complex nature of geographical gradients of diversity.     

Nestedness in island faunas: novel insights into island biogeography through butterfly community profiles of colonization ability and migration capacity

Aim To relate variation in the migration capacity and colonization ability of island communities to island geography and species island occupancy. Location Islands off mainland Britain and Ireland. Methods Mean migration (transfer) capacity and colonization (establishment) ability (ecological indices), indexed from 12 ecological variables for 56 butterfly species living on 103 islands, were related to species nestedness, island and mainland source geography and indices using linear regression models, RLQ analysis and fourth‐corner analysis. Random creation of faunas from source species, rank correlation and rank regression were used to examine differences between island and source ecological indices, and relationships to island geography. Results Island butterfly faunas are highly nested. The two ecological indices related closely to island occupancy, nestedness rank of species, island richness and geography. The key variables related to migration capacity were island area and isolation; for colonization ability they were area, isolation and longitude. Compared with colonization ability, migration capacity was found to correlate more strongly with island species occupancy and species richness. For island faunas, the means for both ecological indices decreased, and variation increased, with increasing island species richness. Mean colonization ability and migration capacity values were significantly higher for island faunas than for mainland source faunas, but these differences decreased with island latitude. Main conclusions The nested pattern of butterfly species on islands off mainland Britain and Ireland relates strongly to colonization ability but especially to migration capacity. Differences in colonization ability among species are most obvious for large, topographically varied islands. Generalists with abundant multiple resources and greater migration capacity are found on all islands, whereas specialists are restricted to large islands with varied and long‐lived biotopes, and islands close to shore. The inference is that source–sink dynamics dominate butterfly distributions on British and Irish islands; species are capable of dispersing to new areas, but, with the exception of large and northern islands, facilities (resources) for permanent colonization are limited. The pattern of colonization ability and migration capacity is likely to be repeated for mainland areas, where such indices should provide useful independent measures for assessing the conservation status of faunas within spatial units.     

Tree diversity on islands: assembly rules,passive sampling and the theory of island biogeography

Aim Species diversity is distributed heterogeneously through space, for reasons that are poorly understood. We tested three hypotheses to account for spatial variation in coniferous tree species diversity in a temperate island archipelago. The theory of island biogeography (ToIB) predicts that island area affects species diversity both directly (by increasing habitat diversity) and indirectly (by increasing abundances, which in turn reduce extinction rates). The ToIB also predicts that island isolation directly affects species diversity by reducing immigration rates. The passive sampling hypothesis predicts that island area and isolation both affect species diversity indirectly, by increasing and decreasing abundances, respectively. Community assembly rules (i.e. even partitioning of conifer abundances among islands) might also reduce tree species diversity beyond the core predictions of ToIB and the passive sampling hypothesis. Location Barkley Sound, British Columbia, Canada. Methods The abundances of eight coniferous tree species were quantified on 34 islands and two (1 ha) mainland plots. The predictions of the ToIB and the passive sampling hypothesis were tested using path analysis, and null models were used to test for abundance‐based assembly rules and to further test the passive sampling hypothesis. Results Path analysis showed that island area and isolation did not have direct, statistical effects on tree species diversity. Instead, both geographic variables had direct statistical effects on total tree abundances, which in turn predicted tree diversity. Results from several passive sampling null models were correlated with observed patterns in species diversity, but they consistently overestimated the number of tree species inhabiting most islands. A different suite of null models showed support for community assembly rules, or that tree species often reached higher abundances on islands that housed fewer heterospecific trees. Main conclusions Results were inconsistent with the ToIB. Instead, patterns in tree diversity were best explained by a combination of stochastic (passive sampling) and deterministic (assembly rules) processes. Stochastic and deterministic processes are commonly considered to be exclusive explanations for island community structure, but results from this study suggest that they can work synergistically to structure island tree communities.     

Inheritance, ecology and the evolution of the canoes of east Oceania

We consider patterns in the evolution of canoe technology in the eastern Pacific relative to three general processes: movement of canoe traits along the Polynesian settlement sequence, adaptations to local island environment, and post-settlement interaction between island groups. Using model selection methods on the distributions of canoe technology, we show that social and ecological covariates together consistently outperform each considered individually, though knowledge of island area and post-settlement trading spheres does not add explanatory power. In particular, decorative canoe traits are not effectively explained by either our ecological or transmission models. We also estimate negative effects from both settlement sequence and island geomorphology, consistent with the die-off of particular canoe designs on resource-rich high island groups such as Hawaii and New Zealand. This decline in measured traits may be owing to the lifting of ecological constraints on population size or building materials.     

Scale-dependent equilibrium in highly heterogeneous islands: plant geography of the northern Great Barrier Reef sand cays and shingle islets

In contrast to classical island biogeographical predictions, plant species richness is not monotonically related to island area or isolation for the northern Great Barrier Reef islands, and this cannot be accounted for as a ‘small island effect’. Many islands are composed of different terrain units bearing different floristic assemblages suggesting a modified‘terrain-floristic element’model for island biogeography. This requires definition of a time-scale for equilibrium considerations and emphasizes that equilibrium or first order perturbation (‘relaxation’) models may be inappropriate for some archipelagos.     

A general dynamic theory of oceanic island biogeography

Aim MacArthur and Wilson’s dynamic equilibrium model of island biogeography provides a powerful framework for understanding the ecological processes acting on insular populations. However, their model is known to be less successful when applied to systems and processes operating on evolutionary and geological timescales. Here, we present a general dynamic model (GDM) of oceanic island biogeography that aims to provide a general explanation of biodiversity patterns through describing the relationships between fundamental biogeographical processes – speciation, immigration, extinction – through time and in relation to island ontogeny. Location Analyses are presented for the Azores, Canaries, Galápagos, Marquesas and Hawaii. Methods We develop a theoretical argument from first principles using a series of graphical models to convey key properties and mechanisms involved in the GDM. Based on the premises (1) that emergent properties of island biotas are a function of rates of immigration, speciation and extinction, (2) that evolutionary dynamics predominate in large, remote islands, and (3) that oceanic islands are relatively short‐lived landmasses showing a characteristic humped trend in carrying capacity (via island area, topographic variation, etc.) over their life span, we derive a series of predictions concerning biotic properties of oceanic islands. We test a subset of these predictions using regression analyses based largely on data sets for native species and single‐island endemics (SIEs) for particular taxa from each archipelago, and using maximum island age estimates from the literature. The empirical analyses test the power of a simple model of diversity derived from the GDM: the log(Area) + Time + Time² model (ATT²), relative to other simpler time and area models, using several diversity metrics. Results The ATT² model provides a more satisfactory explanation than the alternative models evaluated (for example the standard diversity–area models) in that it fits a higher proportion of the data sets tested, although it is not always the most parsimonious solution. Main conclusions The theoretical model developed herein is based on the key dynamic biological processes (migration, speciation, extinction) combined with a simple but general representation of the life cycle of oceanic islands, providing a framework for explaining patterns of biodiversity, endemism and diversification on a range of oceanic archipelagos. The properties and predictions derived from the model are shown to be broadly supported (1) by the empirical analyses presented, and (2) with reference to previous phylogenetic, ecological and geological studies.     

A generalized model of island biogeography

MacArthur and Wilson’s equilibrium theory is one of the most influential theories in ecology. Although evolution on islands is to be important to island biodiversity, speciation has not been well integrated into island biogeography models. By incorporating speciation and factors influencing it into the MacArthur-Wilson model, we propose a generalized model unifying ecological and evolutionary processes and island features. Intra-island speciation may play an important role in both island species richness and endemism, and the contribution of speciation to local species diversity may eventually be greater than that of immigration under certain conditions. Those conditions are related to the per species speciation rate, per species extinction rate, and island features, and they are independent of immigration rate. The model predicts that large islands will have a high, though not the highest, proportional endemism when other parameters are fixed. Based on the generalized model, changes in species richness and endemism on an oceanic island over time were predicted to be similar to empirical observations. Our model provides an ideal starting point for re-evaluating the role of speciation and re-analyzing available data on island species diversity, especially those biased by the MacArthur-Wilson model.     

Global patterns in the phylogenetic structure of island mammal assemblages

Assemblage-level phylogenies carry the signature of ecological and evolutionary processes, which may provide useful information on modes of assemblage formation. We present a global-scale analysis of the emergent phylogenetic properties of mammal assemblages on islands, in which we compared the structure of 595 island assemblages with null models constructed under four alternative definitions of regional source pools. Although most assemblages had a structure indistinguishable from random samples, for some mammal taxa, up to 40% of island assemblages were phylogenetically overdispersed. This suggests that in at least some cases, the processes that shape island faunas are not independent of phylogeny. Furthermore, measures of phylogenetic structure were associated in some cases with island geographical features (size, maximum elevation and habitat diversity). Our results suggest that part of the signal of assemblage formation processes is detectable in the phylogenies of contemporary island mammal faunas, though much is obscured by the complexity of these processes.     

Links to rare climates do not translate into distinct traits for island endemics

Current models of island biogeography treat endemic and non-endemic species as if they were functionally equivalent, focussing primarily on species richness. Thus, the functional composition of island biotas in relation to island biogeographical variables remains largely unknown. Using plant trait data (plant height, leaf area and flower length) for 895 native species in the Canary Islands, we related functional trait distinctiveness and climate rarity for endemic and non-endemic species and island ages. Endemics showed a link to climatically rare conditions that is consistent with island geological change through time. However, functional trait distinctiveness did not differ between endemics and non-endemics and remained constant with island age. Thus, there is no obvious link between trait distinctiveness and occupancy of rare climates, at least for the traits measured here, suggesting that treating endemic and non-endemic species as functionally equivalent in island biogeography is not fundamentally wrong.     

Accounting for data heterogeneity in patterns of biodiversity: an application of linear mixed effect models to the oceanic island biogeography of spore‐producing plants

The general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography describes the evolution of species diversity properties, including species richness (SR), through time. We investigate the hypothesis that SR in organisms with high dispersal capacities is better predicted by island area and elevation (as a surrogate of habitat diversity) than by time elapsed since island emergence and geographic isolation. Linear mixed effect models (LMMs) subjected to information theoretic model selection were employed to describe moss and liverwort SR patterns from 67 oceanic islands across 12 archipelagos. Random effects, which are used to modulate model parameters to take differences among archipelagos into account, included only a random intercept in the best‐fit model for liverworts and in one of the two best‐fit models for mosses. In this case, the other coefficients are constant across archipelagos, and we interpret the intercept as a measure of the intrinsic carrying capacity of islands within each archipelago, independently of their size, age, elevation and geographic isolation. The contribution of area and elevation to the models was substantially higher than that of time, with the least contribution made by measures of geographic isolation. This reinforces the idea that oceanic barriers are not a major impediment for migration in bryophytes and, together with the almost complete absence of in situ insular diversification, explains the comparatively limited importance of time in the models. We hence suggest that time per se has little independent role in explaining bryophyte SR and principally features as a variable accounting for the changing area and topographic complexity during the life‐cycle of oceanic islands. Simple area models reflecting habitat availability and diversity might hence prevail over more complex temporal models reflecting in‐situ speciation and dispersal (time, geographic connectivity) in explaining patterns of biodiversity for exceptionally mobile organisms.     

Modelling the occurrence and abundance of a colonial species,the arctic tern Sterna paradisaea in the archipelago of SW Finland

Knowledge of the habitat requirements and suitable breeding areas of sea birds is crucial for their management and conservation. However, there are still few studies that have modelled the breeding distribution and abundance of colonial sea birds. In this study, we created predictive distribution models for a colonial species, the arctic tern Sterna paradisaea, using 14 environmental variables calculated for 525 islands in the Archipelago Sea in SW Finland. We modelled the occurrence (presence‐absence) using generalised additive models (GAMs) and abundance (pair numbers/colony size) using hurdle models fitted with GAM. We tested for spatial autocorrelation in model residuals and evaluated the models on independent data. Critical factors influencing the occurrence of the arctic tern were the proportions of boulder or gravel and forest of island area, as well as island maximum elevation and area, such that the species seemed to prefer large and low islands with sparse vegetation. Abundance was influenced by the proportions of boulder or gravel and bare rock of island area, as well as exposure and island area. To some extent, different factors influenced the occurrence and the abundance. The evaluation results of the models were good, with an AUC value of 0.91 for the most accurate presence‐absence model and a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.60 for the most accurate hurdle model. The predictive ability of the models increased when we removed islands with single or few breeding pairs from the data set. Although the hurdle models did not produce accurate pair number estimates, they indicated which islands are suitable for larger colonies. Abundance is a crucial factor for colonial species. This modelling technique can therefore be of great value for the conservation and management of the arctic tern and similar colonial species.     

The rate of approach to the equilibrium value of F(ST) in island and one-dimensional stepping-stone models of migration

The rate of approach to the equilibrium value of FST was analyzed numerically for the finite island and one-dimensional stepping-stone models using computer simulation. For both models, this rate was shown to decrease with decreasing migration rate among subpopulations but in the case of the stepping-stone model, it takes thousands rather than tens of generations to reach the equilibrium. Unlike the island structure of migration, in the stepping-stone model an increase in the subpopulation number reduces the rate of reaching the equilibrium state.     

种群生存力分析研究进展和趋势

种群生存力分析（PVA）是正在迅速发展的新方法,已成为保护生物学研究的热点。它主要研究随机干扰对小种群绝灭的影响,其目的是制定最小可存活种群（MVP）,把绝灭减少到可接受的水平。随机干扰可分四类;统计随机性,环境随机性,自然灾害和遗传随机性。确定MVP的方法有三种：理论模型,模拟模型,模拟模型和岛屿生物地理学方法。理论模型主要研究理想或特定条件下随机因素对种群的影响;模拟模型是利用计算机模拟种群绝灭过程;岛屿生物地理学方法主要分析岛屿物种的分布和存活,证实分析模型和模拟模型。已有大量的文献研究统计随机性,环境随机性和自然灾害的行为特征,但遗传因素与种群生存力之间的关系还不清楚。建立包括四种随机性的综合性模型,广泛地检验PVA模型,系统地研制目标种的遗传和生态特性以及MVP的实际应用是PVA的发展趋势。     

Global diversity of island floras from a macroecological perspective

Islands harbour a significant portion of all plant species worldwide. Their biota are often characterized by narrow distributions and are particularly susceptible to biological invasions and climate change. To date, the global richness pattern of islands is only poorly documented and factors causing differences in species numbers remain controversial. Here, we present the first global analysis of 488 island and 970 mainland floras. We test the relationship between island characteristics (area, isolation, topography, climate and geology) and species richness using traditional and spatial models. Area is the strongest determinant of island species numbers ( R ² = 0.66) but a weaker predictor for mainlands ( R ² = 0.25). Multivariate analyses reveal that all investigated variables significantly contribute to insular species richness with area being the strongest followed by isolation, temperature and precipitation with about equally strong effects. Elevation and island geology show relatively weak yet significant effects. Together these variables account for 85% of the global variation in species richness.     

Polymorphism with migration and selection

Summary Two single-locus, deterministic models with discrete nonoverlapping generations are formulated for the maintenance of genetic variation in each of two distinct biological situations. The first two models are applicable to an autosomal locus in an hermaphroditic plant population with mixed selfing and random mating. They describe the interaction of migration and viability selection for, respectively, an island migration model and for a subdivided population. Pollen as well as seed may disperse. Sufficient conditions are derived and discussed for the existence of protected polymorphism in the diallelic case. The remaining two models are pertinent to migration and selection at a single X-linked locus. An island model is again considered as well as that of a subdivided population. Mating is at random, selection occurs only through viability differences, and the migration structure for males and females may differ. For a diallelic population, protection conditions are derived and discussed vis-à-vis the autosomal case.M.M. was supported by a U.S. Public Health Service training grant (Grant No. GM780).     

From plots to islands: species diversity at different scales

Aim To investigate how plant diversity of whole islands (‘gamma’) is related to alpha and beta diversity patterns among sampling plots within each island, thus exploring aspects of diversity patterns across scales. Location Nineteen islands of the Aegean Sea, Greece. Methods Plant species were recorded at both the whole‐island scale and in small 100 m² plots on each island. Mean plot species richness was considered as a measure of alpha diversity, and six indices of the ‘variation’‐type beta diversity were also applied. In addition, we partitioned beta diversity into a ‘nestedness’ and a ‘replacement’ component, using the total species richness recorded in all plots of each island as a measure of ‘gamma’ diversity. We also applied 10 species–area models to predict the total observed richness of each island from accumulated plot species richness. Results Mean alpha diversity was not significantly correlated with the overall island species richness or island area. The range of plot species richness for each island was significantly correlated with both overall species richness and area. Alpha diversity was not correlated with most indices of beta diversity. The majority of beta diversity indices were correlated with whole‐island species richness, and this was also true for the ‘replacement’ component of beta diversity. The rational function model provided the best prediction of observed island species richness, with Monod’s and the exponential models following closely. Inaccuracy of predictions was positively correlated with the number of plots and with most indices of beta diversity. Main conclusions Diversity at the broader scale (whole islands) is shaped mainly by variation among small local samples (beta diversity), while local alpha diversity is not a good predictor of species diversity at broader scales. In this system, all results support the crucial role of habitat diversity in determining the species–area relationship.