Impact of CO2 concentration changes on the biosphere-atmosphere system of West Africa

Vegetation dynamics plays a critical role in causing the decadal variability of precipitation over the Sahel region of West Africa. However, the potential impact of changes in CO₂ concentration on vegetation dynamics and precipitation variability of this region has not been addressed by previous studies. In this paper, we explore the role of CO₂ concentration in the regional climate system of West Africa using a zonally symmetric, synchronously coupled biosphere‐atmosphere model. We first document the response of precipitation and vegetation to incremental changes of CO₂ concentration; the impact of CO₂ concentration on the variability of the regional biosphere‐atmosphere system is then addressed using the second half of the twentieth century as an example. An increase of CO₂ concentration causes the regional biosphere‐atmosphere system to become wetter and greener, with the radiative effect of CO₂ and improved plant‐water relation dominant in the Sahelian grassland region and the direct enhancement of leaf carbon assimilation dominant in the tree‐covered region to the south. Driven by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) of the tropical Atlantic Ocean during the period 1950–97 and with CO₂ concentration prescribed at a pre‐industrial level 300ppmv, the model simulates a persistent Sahel drought during the period of 1960s?1990s. The simulated drought takes place in the form of a transition of the coupled biosphere‐atmosphere system from a wet/green regime in the 1950s to a dry/barren regime after the 1960s. This climate transition is triggered by SST forcing and materialized through vegetation‐climate interactions. The same SST forcing does not produce such a persistent drought when a constant modern CO₂ concentration of 350ppmv is specified, indicating that the biosphere‐atmosphere system at higher CO₂ level is more resilient to drought‐inducing external forcings. This finding suggests that the regional climate in Sahel, which tends to alternate between dry and wet spells, may experience longer (or more frequent) wet episodes and shorter (or less frequent) dry episodes in the future than in the past. Our study has significant implications regarding the impact of climate change on regional socio‐economic development.     

Desertification in the Sahel: a reinterpretation

The impact of human management, in particular livestock grazing, on the vegetation cover of the Sahel is still debated. In a range of studies, satellite images have been used to analyze the development of the Sahelian vegetation cover over time. These studies did not reveal any significant degradation of the Sahel in the last two decades. In this paper, we examine the ecological assumptions underlying the use of satellite imagery to analyze degradation of the Sahel. Specifically, we analyze the variability of the rain‐use efficiency (RUE), which is often used as an indicator for the state of the vegetation cover. We detect a fundamental flaw in the way RUE has been handled in most remote sensing studies; they ignored the relation between annual rainfall variation and RUE. Because of the upward trend in annual rainfall that occurred during the 1980s and 1990s, this leads to a bias in the interpretation of the satellite images. In this paper, we show the importance of the variability in RUE for the analysis of remote sensing imagery of semiarid rangelands. Our analysis also shows that it is likely that there has been anthropogenic degradation of the Sahelian vegetation cover in the last two decades. This has important consequences for the debate on the impacts of grazing on semiarid rangelands. Furthermore, the occurrence of anthropogenic degradation is relevant to explain the magnitude of 20th century Sahelian droughts. The analyses also indicate that the population of the Sahel may be more vulnerable for droughts than currently assumed.     

Tree mortality in the African Sahel indicates an anthropogenic ecosystem displaced by climate change

Aim Widespread reports of disappearing tree species and senescing savanna parklands in the Sahel have generated a vigorous debate over whether climate change or severe human and livestock pressure is principally responsible. Many of the tree taxa in decline are closely associated with human settlement and farming, suggesting that the parkland ecosystem may not be a natural vegetation assemblage. The aim of this study is to assess the possibility that human activities promoted the spread of taxa with edible fruit into dry Sudano‐Sahelian areas during high‐rainfall periods in the climate cycle. Location West African savannas (Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Togo, Benin). Methods Cultivated savanna parklands and adjacent forests and transitional landscapes were inventoried at 27 sites in five countries. All trees with basal diameters > 10 cm were counted within 500‐m² belt transects. Species composition and abundance were contrasted between three landscape classes to assess the degree of influence exerted by traditional human management. Twentieth century rainfall data were averaged for two sets of weather stations encompassing the north–south range of typical parkland tree species. Rainfall trends were used to evaluate the putative impact of climate change on edible and/or succulent fruit species at the northern limit of the parkland savanna zone. Results Species composition and spatial distribution data indicate that the parkland ecosystem is significantly shaped by human activities. Indigenous land management favours edible‐fruit‐yielding taxa from the wetter Sudanian and Guinean vegetation zones over Sahelian species. Rainfall isohyets at the northern range limits of parkland species shifted southwards in the late 20th century, crossing the critical 600‐mm mean annual rainfall threshold for Sudanian flora. Relict vegetation and historical records indicate that the Sudanian parkland system extended in the past to near 15° N latitude in middle West Africa, compared with 13.5° N today. Main conclusions The current loss of mesic trees in the Sudano‐Sahel zone appears to be driven by the sharp drop in rainfall since the 1960s, which has effectively stranded anthropogenically distributed species beyond their rainfall tolerance limits.     

Sub-saharan desertification and productivity are linked to hemispheric climate variability

Vegetation productivity and desertification in sub‐Saharan Africa may be influenced by global climate variability attributable to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Combined and individual effects of the NAO and ENSO indices revealed that 75% of the interannual variation in the area of Sahara Desert was accounted for by the combined effects, with most variance attributable to the NAO. Effects were shown in the latitudinal variation on the 200 mm isocline, which was influenced mostly by the NAO. The combined indices explained much of the interannual variability in vegetation productivity in the Sahelian zone and southern Africa, implying that both the NAO and ENSO may be useful for monitoring effects of global climate change in sub‐Saharan Africa.     

Does climate at different scales influence the phenology and phenotype of the River Warbler <Emphasis Type="Italic">Locustella fluviatilis</Emphasis>?

Weather and climatic conditions may impact on the phenology and morphology of birds, and thereby affect their survival rate and population dynamics. We examined the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), precipitation in the Sahel zone, temperatures in the wintering grounds, on the migration route, and in the breeding area in relation to arrival dates and six morphological measures (wing, tarsus, bill, and tail lengths, body mass, body condition) in a Slovak population of the River Warbler Locustella fluviatilis. Arrival dates did not change significantly over the study period, but were significantly positively correlated with NAO, although not with temperatures in wintering areas, migration route or breeding area, nor with Sahel precipitation. Four of the six morphological traits changed during the study period and part of the change in condition index can be attributed to climatic variables. We suggest changes in birds phenotype vary with food availability, which fluctuate according to climate events.     

Holocene vegetation history of the Sahel: pollen, sedimentological and geochemical data from Jikariya Lake, north-eastern Nigeria

Aim This study aims to separate regional and local controls on Holocene vegetation development and examine how well pollen records reflect climate change in a semi‐arid region. The relative importance of climate and human activity as agents of vegetation change in the Sahel during the late Holocene is also considered. Location Jikariya Lake, an inter‐dune depression in the Manga Grasslands of north‐eastern Nigeria. Methods Pollen and charcoal were used to provide a record of Holocene vegetation history. Palaeoclimate and hydrological changes were reconstructed from sedimentary and geochemical data. Regional and local influences were separated by comparing the evidence obtained from Jikariya Lake with previously published data from the Manga Grasslands. Results The Manga Grasslands experienced a prolonged wet period during the early and mid‐Holocene, during which swamp forest vegetation with Guinean affinities (Alchornea, Syzygium, Uapaca) occupied the inter‐dune depressions. However, variation in the pollen records between sites suggests that their establishment was dependent on conditions being locally favourable, rather than being directly coupled to regional climate. The pollen records from the Manga Grasslands are more consistent in suggesting the colonization of the dunefields by trees associated with Sudanian savanna (Combretaceae, Detarium) c. 8700 cal. yr bp . The Jikariya Lake pollen data are in accordance with the sedimentological and geochemical data from the region in indicating that the onset of arid conditions occurred progressively during the late Holocene (from c. 4700 cal. yr bp ). Abrupt changes in pollen stratigraphy, recorded at other Manga Grasslands sites 3500 cal. yr bp , appear to be the product of the local passing of ecological thresholds. The dunefield vegetation (Sahelian savanna) appears to have been resilient to (or at least palynologically silent regarding) to the climatic variability of the late Holocene. Main conclusions While climate appears to have been the primary control on vegetation development in the Manga Grasslands during the Holocene, local conditions (particularly depression size and sand influx) had a strong influence on the timing of pollen stratigraphic changes. Anthropogenic influences are difficult to detect, even during the late Holocene.     

Normalized difference vegetation index prediction based on the delta downscaling method and back-propagation artificial neural network under climate change in the Sanjiangyuan region,China

Predicting the response of vegetation to climate change through mathematical methods is an important way to understand ecosystem condition changes in ecologically vulnerable regions. We took the Sanjiangyuan region, one of the most sensitive areas to climate change, as the study area to construct a simpler calculation and higher resolution (suitable for regional scale study) nonlinear method to predict the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) under climate change by combining the delta downscaling method and backpropagation artificial neural network. We first used the delta downscaling method to downscale the coarse-resolution climate element data of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 6) (CMIP6) to 0.08333° (regional scale). By analysing the relationship between NDVI and climate elements, we found that NDVI has the highest correlation with annual total precipitation, annual mean temperature, variation range of precipitation and temperature, etc. Then, we used these impact factors to train the back propagation artificial neural network (BP-ANN) and predict the NDVI in 2030 and 2060 under the SSP1–2.6 scenario and SSP5–8.5 scenario. The simulated results show that the BP-ANN can be used to construct the nonlinear relationship between NDVI and the impact factors on different scales. In the future, NDVI will increase under both the SSP1–2.6 scenario and the SSP5–8.5 scenario. The western part of the study area has the highest altitude, the ecosystem is more vulnerable, and the changes will be the most intense. This study is expected to provide a reference for understanding the impact of climate change on vegetation in national parks in plateaus and to provide a simpler NDVI prediction method for the evaluation of environmental quality under the impact of climate change with NDVI as one of the parameters.     

青藏高原植被生长季NDVI时空变化与影响因素

青藏高原是中国乃至亚洲的生态屏障,研究其植被对气候变化的响应对区域生态保护具有重要的现实意义。基于MOD09A1数据反演的生长季归一化植被指数(NDVI),分析2001—2018年青藏高原植被生长季NDVI时空特征和变化趋势,结合气象站点数据阐释NDVI与气候因子的关系。结果表明: 研究期间,青藏高原植被生长季NDVI呈缓慢上升趋势,不同气候区生长季NDVI年际变化差异明显,NDVI值波动幅度表现为高原湿润气候区>半湿润气候区>半干旱气候区>干旱气候区。青藏高原湿润气候区、半湿润气候区、干旱气候区、半干旱气候区NDVI显著升高和降低面积占比分别为1.4%和1.9%、4.9%和1.5%、16.4%和0.8%、7.0%和2.0%,干旱和半干旱气候区NDVI升高面积占比明显大于湿润和半湿润气候区。气温是影响湿润气候区和半湿润气候区NDVI变化的主导因子,而在干旱气候区,降水对NDVI的影响明显强于其他气候因子。气温对整个青藏高原植被生长季NDVI的驱动作用强于降水和相对湿度。     

Impact of climate change on plant phenology in Mediterranean ecosystems

Plant phenology is strongly controlled by climate and has consequently become one of the most reliable bioindicators of ongoing climate change. We used a dataset of more than 200 000 records for six phenological events of 29 perennial plant species monitored from 1943 to 2003 for a comprehensive assessment of plant phenological responses to climate change in the Mediterranean region. Temperature, precipitation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) were studied together during a complete annual cycle before phenological events to determine their relative importance and potential seasonal carry‐over effects. Warm and dry springs under a positive phase of NAO advance flowering, leaf unfolding and fruiting dates and lengthen the growing season. Spatial variability of dates (range among sites) was also reduced during warm and dry years, especially for spring events. Climate during previous weeks to phenophases occurrence had the greatest impact on plants, although all events were also affected by climate conditions several months before. Immediate along with delayed climate effects suggest dual triggers in plant phenology. Climatic models accounted for more than 80% of variability in flowering and leaf unfolding dates, and in length of the growing season, but for lower proportions in fruiting and leaf falling. Most part of year‐to‐year changes in dates was accounted for temperature, while precipitation and NAO accounted for <10% of dates' variability. In the case of flowering, insect‐pollinated species were better modelled by climate than wind‐pollinated species. Differences in temporal responses of plant phenology to recent climate change are due to differences in the sensitivity to climate among events and species. Spring events are changing more than autumn events as they are more sensitive to climate and are also undergoing the greatest alterations of climate relative to other seasons. In conclusion, climate change has shifted plant phenology in the Mediterranean region.     

1982-2020年东北森林带植被绿度时空变化特征

植被绿度变化（绿化或褐化）的时空格局研究有助于了解生态系统结构和功能的变化,制定适应气候变化的生态系统管理政策。在全球气候变化加剧的背景下,过去40a间东北森林带植被绿度如何变化仍不清楚。基于气象再分析数据分析了1982-2020年来东北森林带的气候变化趋势,以叶面积指数（LAI）作为植被绿度的衡量指标分析了东北森林带中大兴安岭、小兴安岭和长白山脉植被绿度的时空变化格局和影响因素。研究发现：1982-2020年东北森林带气候趋势呈现"暖干化"特征。研究区植被绿度总体呈绿化趋势,但2000年后植被绿度变化呈降低趋势的区域增加了7.23倍,主要位于大兴安岭西北部。影响因素分析表明,1982-2000年温度和土壤水分是植被绿度增加的主要驱动因素;而2000年之后,区域内植被绿化的主要驱动因素为土壤水分的增加,降雨和相对湿度降低引起的水分胁迫导致大兴安岭西北部植被褐化加剧。研究结果为揭示东北森林带固碳能力变化、制定适应气候变化的林业管理对策提供了科学参考。     

2001-2020年新疆阿勒泰地区归一化植被指数时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应

气候变化是干旱区植被变化的重要驱动因素,探究干旱区气候与植被关系的时空变化,有助于理解生态系统演化特征。基于MODIS-NDVI与CRU数据集中气候数据（降水、平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、水汽压及潜在蒸散）,采用Sen+Mann-kendall、Hurst指数及相关分析法,在不同时间尺度评价了阿勒泰地区NDVI的时空变化特征及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明：（1）在年尺度上,植被NDVI整体呈上升趋势,但存在弱反持续特征。区域内植被退化现象严重（12.11%）,植被改善区域与退化区域呈破碎化分布。（2）月尺度与季尺度上,NDVI与降水、气温、极端气温、水汽压和潜在蒸散呈正相关,其中降水因素在季尺度上的相关性高于月尺度。（3）不同土地利用方式下NDVI与气候因子的滞后效应表现为短期正效应与长期负效应。     

1982-2020年内蒙古地区极端气候变化及其对植被的影响

内蒙古地处生态环境脆弱区,对气候变化尤为敏感。在全球气候变暖背景下,探究极端气候变化及其影响显得尤为重要。基于内蒙古地区115个气象站点1982—2020年的逐日气象数据,从强度、持续时间、频率3个维度出发计算了18个极端气候指数,在综合分析极端气候的时空变化特征的基础上,运用地理探测器和皮尔逊相关分析方法,定量评估极端气候对该区植被的影响。结果表明：(1)极端暖指数均呈增加趋势,说明1982—2020年期间内蒙古地区极端偏暖现象增多。(2)持续干旱日数与持续湿润日数呈减少趋势,说明39年来内蒙古地区连续性无降水天数和降水天数均减少。(3)极端气候指数与归一化植被指数(NDVI)的相关关系表现出明显的空间异质性,表明内蒙古不同区域NDVI对各极端气候指数的响应程度不同。(4)因子探测器结果表明极端降水指数相对于极端气温指数来说,对内蒙古植被生长变化的影响较大。研究结果可为内蒙古地区防灾减灾与生态修复工程提供一定的科学依据。     

Ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland in West Africa and its relationship with environmental variability

The Dahra field site in Senegal, West Africa, was established in 2002 to monitor ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland and their responses to climatic and environmental change. This article describes the environment and the ecosystem properties of the site using a unique set of in situ data. The studied variables include hydroclimatic variables, species composition, albedo, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), hyperspectral characteristics (350–1800 nm), surface reflectance anisotropy, brightness temperature, fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR), biomass, vegetation water content, and land‐atmosphere exchanges of carbon (NEE) and energy. The Dahra field site experiences a typical Sahelian climate and is covered by coexisting trees (~3% canopy cover) and grass species, characterizing large parts of the Sahel. This makes the site suitable for investigating relationships between ecosystem properties and hydroclimatic variables for semiarid savanna ecosystems of the region. There were strong interannual, seasonal and diurnal dynamics in NEE, with high values of ~?7.5 g C m^?2 day^?1 during the peak of the growing season. We found neither browning nor greening NDVI trends from 2002 to 2012. Interannual variation in species composition was strongly related to rainfall distribution. NDVI and FAPAR were strongly related to species composition, especially for years dominated by the species Zornia glochidiata. This influence was not observed in interannual variation in biomass and vegetation productivity, thus challenging dryland productivity models based on remote sensing. Surface reflectance anisotropy (350–1800 nm) at the peak of the growing season varied strongly depending on wavelength and viewing angle thereby having implications for the design of remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices covering different wavelength regions. The presented time series of in situ data have great potential for dryland dynamics studies, global climate change related research and evaluation and parameterization of remote sensing products and dynamic vegetation models.     

青藏高原植被绿度变化及其对干湿变化的响应

青藏高原是全球气候变化的敏感区,特殊的自然环境孕育了极端脆弱的植被及其生态系统,已成为研究植被对气候变化响应的一个理想区域。植被易受气候变化的影响且响应可能因季节和植被类型而异。该研究将标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和MODIS归一化植被指数(NDVI)分别作为干湿度和植被绿度指标,采用Sen’s斜率估计、BFAST模型和相关分析,分析了2000–2018年青藏高原植被绿度变化的时空格局特征,并探讨了植被绿度对干湿变化的响应。结果表明:2000–2018年青藏高原植被绿度呈上升趋势,但变化速率空间差异显著。大部分高原地区植被绿度于2012–2015年间存在突变,突变后普遍呈上升趋势,以藏北地区最为突出。青藏高原植被生长季NDVI与不同时间尺度SPEI整体呈正相关关系,且在生长季的中后期相关性逐渐增强。青藏高原植被对SPEI的响应表现出一定的年内周期性,草本植被(草甸和草原)区尤为显著。相对于森林和灌丛植被,草本植被对SPEI响应更为敏感,且在生长季的不同阶段对不同时间尺度的SPEI的响应存在明显差异。     

Impact of ENSO on East African ecosystems: a multivariate analysis based on climate and remote sensing data

1 The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of inter‐annual variations in climate and ecosystem productivity in tropical regions. Most previous studies have analysed ENSO‐induced changes in climate based on a single variable, such as rainfall. Also, it is generally assumed that the ENSO impact in East Africa is geographically uniform. 2 The objective of this study is to improve understanding of the impact of ENSO on East African ecosystems, by measuring teleconnections between an ENSO index and a number of ecosystem variables in a spatially explicit way and for different time lags. We analysed the spatial patterns of teleconnections in the region by combining time series of climate variables measured for meteorological stations with time series of a vegetation index and surface temperature data measured by remote sensing. 3 Our results confirm the ENSO impact on the climatic and ecological variability in East Africa. However, the pattern of teleconnections is much more complex than generally assumed, both in terms of spatial distribution and impact on different ecosystem variables. Not all climate and land surface variables are teleconnected to ENSO in the same way, which leads to a complex impact of ENSO on the ecosystem. Moreover, the ENSO impact is highly differentiated in space, as the direction, magnitude and timing of this impact are controlled by the local climate system, the presence of large lakes, proximity to the coast and, possibly, local topography and land cover.     

Nonlinear impact of climate on survival in a migratory white stork population

1. There is growing evidence that ongoing climate change affects populations and species. Physiological limitation and phenotypic plasticity suggest nonlinear response of vital rates to climatic parameters, the intensity of environmental impact might be more pronounced while the frequency of extreme events increases. However, a poor understanding of these patterns presently hampers our predictive capabilities. 2. A recent climatic shift in the Sahel, from droughty to less severe condition, offers a good opportunity to test for an influence of the climatic regime on the response of organisms to their environment. Using a long-term capture-mark-recapture data set on a white stork (Ciconia ciconia) population wintering in Sahel, we investigated potential change in the impact of environmental conditions on survival and recruitment probabilities between 1981 and 2003. 3. We observed a decrease in the strength of the link between survival and Sahel rainfall during the last decade, down to a nondetectable level. Whether Sahel climate was found to affect the survival of storks under droughty conditions, individuals did not seem to respond to climatic variation when precipitation was more abundant. 4. This result gives evidence to a nonlinear response of a migrant bird to wintering environment. Present climate seems to fluctuate within a range of condition providing enough resources to maximize stork's survival. It suggests that whereas inter-annual variability impacted individuals, pluri-annual average condition affected the intensity of this impact. Such pattern may be more widespread than thought, and its modelling will be crucial to predict the impact of future climate change on population dynamics.     

Impact of climate variability on vegetative cover in the Butana area of Sudan

Climate variability has an impact on the renewable natural resources. This impact is strong in regions with a delicate balance between climate and ecosystem, like the Sahelian regions. Rainfall is the most important climatic factor influencing livelihoods in Butana, north-eastern part of Sudan. All people and their livestock depend on the amount of rainfall that falls and supports plant growth. Butana area experienced severe drought in 1984, 1990 and 2000. Linear relationships between the long-term rainfall and AVHRR/NDVI data were developed for four separate zones in the Butana area. There is a significant correlation between peak NDVI (beginning of September) and cumulative rainfall for July and August, but weak relationships resulted when annual rainfall and cumulative NDVI were used. This is because the NDVI reached a plateau as the rainfall increased, then it remained constant despite further increases in rainfall. The departure from the long-term average of NDVI for each pixel was calculated using the departure average vegetation method. The area had a high percentage of departure during the drought years and the NDVI recovered during the following year when the rainfall was above the average. It can be noted that the area adjacent to the irrigated scheme showed considerable decrease in NDVI. This may be due to overexploitation by the nomads during the drought year.     

Implementation of a hierarchical global vegetation classification in ecosystem function models

Abstract. We propose an alternative approach for the currently used biogeographic global vegetation classifications. A hierarchical vegetation classification system is proposed for consistent and routine monitoring of global vegetation. Global vegetation is first defined into six classes based on plant canopy structure and dynamics observable by remote sensing from satellites. Additional biome variability is then represented through a remote sensing derived leaf area index map, and direct climate data sets driving an ecosystem model to compute and map net primary production and evapotranspiration. Simulation results from an ecosystem function model suggest that the six canopy structure-based classes are sufficient to represent global variability in these parameters, provided the spatio-temporal variations in Leaf Area Index and climate are characterized accurately. If a bioclimatically based classification is needed for other purposes, our six class approach can be expanded to a possible 21 classes using archived climatic zones. For example, tropical, subtropical, temperate and boreal labels are defined by absolute minimum temperature. Further separation in each class is possible through changes in water availability defined by precipitation and/or soils. The resulting vegetation classes correspond to many of the existing, conventional global vegetation schemes, yet retain the measure of actual vegetation possible because remote sensing first defines the six biome classes in our classification. Vegetation classifications are no longer an end product but a source of initializing data for global ecosystem function models. Remote sensing with biosphere models directly calculates the ecological functions previously inferred from vegetation classifications, but with higher spatial and temporal accuracy.     

气候年际变率对全球植被平均分布的影响

采用改进后的通用陆面模式的动态植被模式(CLM-DGVM)研究当前气候条件下气候年际变率对全球潜在植被平均分布的影响。设计两组区域数值实验,一组使用基于NCEP再分析资料衍生的1960-1999年多年气象数据循环驱动,对照实验使用这40a的气候平均态或单年气象资料驱动(即没有气候年际变率),分别考察有无气候年际变化对热带、温带和寒带的潜在植被分布平衡态的影响。在此基础上以1950-1999年上述数据及对应的气候平均态为驱动做两组全球实验。结果表明气候年际变率导致全球植被总覆盖度下降,其中树和灌木减少而草增加;全球平均覆盖度的变化按常绿树、草、灌木、落叶树顺序递减,而相对变化(即格点覆盖度差异的绝对值的全球平均值与气候平均态下植物覆盖度的比值)按灌木、草、落叶树、常绿树顺序递减。在温度、降水、风速、比湿、光照、气压等6种气候因子中降水年际变率对于植被平均分布影响最显著。受降水影响,当年降水小于1200mm时植被总覆盖度的差异随其变率增加而下降,其它时候影响不明显。年降水小于1500mm时树减少,幅度随其年际变率变大而增加。常绿树无论降水多寡均减少,而落叶树在年降水大于1500mm时随其变率变大而增加。草在年降水小于1500mm、变率为中等时差异最大,降水较大时其年际变化对草的影响不大。温度年际变率对落叶树分布影响不大而使常绿树减少,尤其是在寒带,其幅度大致随变率增加而变大。草主要在温度高于-10℃增加而灌木在温度低于0℃增加。植被总体覆盖度在温度高于0℃时受影响普遍降低,降低的区域对应于温度年际变率较大的区域。以上结果说明用气候模式或生物地理模式预测未来植物分布时要同时考虑气候平均态和气候变率两方面的变化。     

A new contribution to the Holocene vegetation history of the West African Sahel: pollen from Oursi,Burkina Faso and charcoal from three sites in northeast Nigeria

A pollen diagram from Oursi in Burkina Faso is compared with anthracological (charcoal analysis) results from three sites in northeast Nigeria (Konduga, Gajiganna, Lantewa). The present-day vegetation at all four sites is Sahelian or Sahelo-Sudanian and under heavy human impact. At Oursi, a closed grassland with only few trees and almost no Sudanian elements can be reconstructed for the middle Holocene. At the Nigerian sites, on the other hand, Sudanian woody plants were present during this period. We assume that the Sahel was not a uniform zone during the middle Holocene but rather a mosaic of different vegetation types according to local site conditions. In the light of these results, a simple model of latitudinally shifting vegetation zones is not applicable. Around 3000 B.P. the closed grassland at Oursi was opened by agro-pastoral activities, and at Gajiganna, plants characteristic of pasture lands can be directly related with the presence of cattle. Human impact seems to have been the dominant factor in the vegetation history of the Sahel from 3000 B.P. until today, masking possible effects of climatic change.