Genetic analysis of breast cancer in the cancer and steroid hormone study.

The familial risk of breast cancer is investigated in a large population-based, case-control study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control. The data set is based on 4,730 histologically confirmed breast cancer cases aged 20 to 54 years and on 4,688 controls who were frequency matched to cases on the basis of both geographic region and 5-year categories of age, and it includes family histories, obtained through interviews of cases and controls, of breast cancer in mothers and sisters. Segregation analysis and goodness-of-fit tests of genetic models provide evidence for the existence of a rare autosomal dominant allele (q = .0033) leading to increased susceptibility to breast cancer. The effect of genotype on the risk of breast cancer is shown to be a function of a woman's age. Although, compared with noncarriers, carriers of the allele appear to be at greater risk at all ages, the ratio of age-specific risks is greatest at young ages and declines steadily thereafter. The proportion of cases predicted to carry the allele is highest (36%) among cases aged 20-29 years. This proportion gradually decreases to 1% among cases aged 80 years or older. The cumulative lifetime risk of breast cancer for women who carry the susceptibility allele is predicted to be high, approximately 92%, while the cumulative lifetime risk for noncarriers is estimated to be approximately 10%.     

Reproductive events and family history as risk factors for breast cancer in northern Alberta.

Reproductive events and family history as risk factors for breast cancer in northern Alberta were investigated with the use of data from a computerized population-based registry. Women aged 30 to 79 years attending diagnostic breast clinics at the Cross Cancer Institute from 1971 through 1975 constituted the two study groups; 1232 women had diagnosed breast cancer (malignant disease group) and 602 women were clinically free of all types of breast disease (control group). An increased relative risk of breast cancer was found in women with a family history of breast cancer, those who gave birth to their first term infant at age 30 years or older, those in whom more than 15 years elapsed between menarche and that birth, and those with a late natural menopause. There was a decreased risk, relative to nulliparity, in the postmenopausal women who first gave birth to a term infant 5 years or less after menarche. Artificial menopause (bilateral oophorectomy), parity and age at menarche had no apparent effect on the risk. The pattern of risk factors in northern Alberta differed from that reported for other geographic areas, including other provinces of Canada, thus emphasizing the need for local studies in the planning of screening programs.     

Cancer of the Breast in Ontario

The breast is the leading cancer site among women; it accounts for 20% of all female cancer deaths. The lifetime probability of death from breast cancer for a female born in Ontario is 3.3%; that is, one in every 30 women will die of breast cancer. The risk of developing breast cancer is almost twice this figure.The medical certificate of death yields a reliable estimate of the number of persons who die of breast cancer, and the level of the age-specific breast cancer death rates has not changed over the past 30 years. Cohort analysis yields an indistinguishable mortality pattern for succeeding cohorts of women from 1871. Available information indicates no change in incidence.The stable mortality and incidence rates suggest that there has been little or no change in the survival rate, despite emphasis on early diagnosis and improvement in therapeutic skills and in technical facilities.     

Age as a factor in breast cancer knowledge,attitudes and screening behaviour.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether there are age-related differences in knowledge, attitudes and behaviour with respect to breast cancer and whether the differences reflect the age-specific Canadian recommendations on breast cancer screening. DESIGN: Telephone survey. SETTING: Two cities and five towns and their surrounding areas in Alberta. PARTICIPANTS: The age-specific, randomly selected sample comprised 1284 women aged 40 to 75 years who did not have breast cancer. Of the 1741 eligible women who were contacted, 1350 (78%) agreed to participate; 66 were excluded because of age ineligibility or a history of breast cancer. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Frequency of knowledge, attitudes and behaviour with respect to breast cancer, by age group. RESULTS: Knowledge of breast cancer risk factors was generally low and decreased with age. Few women were aware of the Canadian recommendations on breast self-examination, physical examination of the breasts by a health care practitioner and mammographic screening. Older women believed they were less susceptible to breast cancer than younger women and were less likely to have positive attitudes toward screening. Self-examination was performed 9 to 15 times per year by 424 women (33%), and 810 (63%) had been examined by a health care professional in the past year. Although 664 (52%) had undergone mammography, the proportion decreased with age after age 59. The main barriers to mammography were lack of physician referral and the woman''s belief that the procedure is unnecessary if she is healthy. CONCLUSIONS: Education is needed to increase breast cancer knowledge, promote the Canadian recommendations for early detection of breast cancer and decrease negative beliefs about the disease. Changes in the behaviour of women and physicians are needed to increase the use of breast self-examination, clinical breast examination by a health care professional and mammographic screening. Reaching women in the upper range (60 to 69 years) of the target group for mammographic screening should be a focus in promoting early detection of breast cancer.     

Spatial variation in age-specific probabilities of first reproduction for Weddell seals

Spatial variation in vital rates can affect the dynamics and persistence of a population. We evaluated the prediction that age-specific probabilities of survival and first reproduction for Weddell seals would vary as a function of birth location in Erebus Bay, Antarctica. We used multi-state mark–resight models and 25 years of data to estimate demographic rates for female seals. We predicted that probabilities of survival and first reproduction would be higher for seals born at near-shore colonies or more southerly-located colonies with consistent ice conditions. Contrary to predictions, results revealed higher age-specific probabilities of first reproduction at offshore colonies relative to near-shore colonies and no spatial variation in survival rates. For 7-year old females (average age at 1st reproduction=7.6 years old) born at offshore colonies to mothers aged 10.8 years (average maternal age), probability of first reproduction was 0.43 (SE=0.07), whereas probability of first reproduction for females born at near-shore colonies was 0.30 (SE=0.05) based on estimates from our top-ranked model. Breeding probabilities following first reproduction were also higher at offshore colonies. Thus, our results (1) provide evidence of spatial variation in breeding probabilities, (2) reveal the importance of birth location on a female's vital rates, and (3) suggest that the effect persisted for many years. Birth-colony effects may be attributed to spatial variation in prey availability, or to heterogeneity in female quality in this population. If females who are superior competitors consistently chose offshore colonies for pupping, pups born at these locations may have inherited those superior qualities and displayed higher probabilities of first reproduction, relative to seals born at other colonies. Further research into physical or food-related differences among colonies may offer insight into spatial variation in breeding probabilities documented in this paper.     

Fetal growth and subsequent risk of breast cancer: results from long term follow up of Swedish cohort

ObjectiveTo investigate whether size at birth and rate of fetal growth influence the risk of breast cancer in adulthood.DesignCohort identified from detailed birth records, with 97% follow up.SettingUppsala Academic Hospital, Sweden.Participants5358 singleton females born during 1915-29, alive and traced to the 1960 census.ResultsSize at birth was positively associated with rates of breast cancer in premenopausal women. In women who weighed ⩾4000 g at birth rates of breast cancer were 3.5 times (95% confidence interval 1.3 to 9.3) those in women of similar gestational age who weighed <3000 g at birth. Rates in women in the top fifths of the distributions of birth length and head circumference were 3.4 (1.5 to 7.9) and 4.0 (1.6 to 10.0) times those in the lowest fifths (adjusted for gestational age). The effect of birth weight disappeared after adjustment for birth length or head circumference, whereas the effects of birth length and head circumference remained significant after adjustment for birth weight. For a given size at birth, gestational age was inversely associated with risk (P=0.03 for linear trend). Adjustment for markers of adult risk factors did not affect these findings. Birth size was not associated with rates of breast cancer in postmenopausal women.ConclusionsSize at birth, particularly length and head circumference, is associated with risk of breast cancer in women aged <50 years. Fetal growth rate, as measured by birth size adjusted for gestational age, rather than size at birth may be the aetiologically relevant factor in premenopausal breast cancer.

What is already known on this topic

There is some evidence that birth weight is related to risk of breast cancerThe exact nature of any association and whether it differs at premenopausal and postmenopausal ages is unclearFew studies have examined the effect of other measures of birth size and of gestational age

What this study adds

There are strong positive associations between measures of birth size and rates of breast cancer at premenopausal ages that persisted after adjustment for adult risk factorsFor a given birth size, gestational age was inversely associated with risk, suggesting that the rate of fetal growth may be aetiologically relevant to premenopausal breast cancerThere was no association between birth characteristics and rates of breast cancer at postmenopausal ages     

Determining carrier probabilities for breast cancer-susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2.

Breast cancer-susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2 have recently been identified on the human genome. Women who carry a mutation of one of these genes have a greatly increased chance of developing breast and ovarian cancer, and they usually develop the disease at a much younger age, compared with normal individuals. Women can be tested to see whether they are carriers. A woman who undergoes genetic counseling before testing can be told the probabilities that she is a carrier, given her family history. In this paper we develop a model for evaluating the probabilities that a woman is a carrier of a mutation of BRCA1 and BRCA2, on the basis of her family history of breast and ovarian cancer in first- and second-degree relatives. Of special importance are the relationships of the family members with cancer, the ages at onset of the diseases, and the ages of family members who do not have the diseases. This information can be elicited during genetic counseling and prior to genetic testing. The carrier probabilities are obtained from Bayes's rule, by use of family history as the evidence and by use of the mutation prevalences as the prior distribution. In addressing an individual's carrier probabilities, we incorporate uncertainty about some of the key inputs of the model, such as the age-specific incidence of diseases and the overall prevalence of mutations. There is some evidence that other, undiscovered genes may be important in explaining familial breast cancer. Users of the current version of the model should be aware of this limitation. The methodology that we describe can be extended to more than two genes, should data become available about other genes.     

Marked increase in breast cancer incidence in young women: A 10-year study from Northern Iran, 2004–2013

IntroductionBreast cancer is the most frequent cancer among women worldwide. Breast cancer incidence in young women is a health issue of concern, especially in middle-income countries such as Iran. The aim of this study is to report the breast cancer incidence variations in Golestan province, Iran, over a 10-year period (2004–2013).MethodsWe analyzed data from the Golestan Population-based Cancer Registry (GPCR), which is a high-quality cancer registry collecting data on primary cancers based on standard protocols throughout the Golestan province. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) and age-specific incidence rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated. Time trends in ASRs and age-specific rates were evaluated using Joinpoint regressions. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) with correspondence 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs) were calculated.ResultsA total of 2106 new breast cancer cases were diagnosed during the study period. Most cases occurred in women living in urban areas: 1449 cases (68%) versus 657 cases (31%) in rural areas. Statistically significant increasing trends were observed over the 10-year study period amongst women of all ages (AAPC = 4.4; 95%CI: 1.2–7.8) as well as amongst women in the age groups 20–29 years (AAPC = 10.0; 95%CI: 1.7–19.0) and 30–39 years (AAPC = 5.1; 95%CI: 1.4–9.0).ConclusionThe incidence of breast cancer increased between 2004 and 2013 in Golestan province amongst all age groups, and in particular amongst women aged 20–39 years. Breast cancer should be considered a high priority for health policy making in our community.     

Pre-diagnosis lifestyle,health history and psychosocial factors associated with stage at breast cancer diagnosis – Potential targets to shift stage earlier

BackgroundEarly detection of breast cancer improves survival, so identifying factors associated with stage at diagnosis may help formulate cancer prevention messages tailored for higher risk women. The goal of this study was to evaluate associations between multiple potential risk factors, including novel ones, measured before a breast cancer diagnosis and stage at diagnosis in women from Alberta, Canada.MethodsWomen enrolled in Alberta’s Tomorrow Project completed health and lifestyle questionnaires on average 7 years before their breast cancer diagnosis. The association of previously identified and novel predictors with stage (I, II and III + IV) at diagnosis were simultaneously evaluated in partial proportional odds ordinal (PPO) regression models.ResultsThe 492 women in this study were predominantly diagnosed in Stage 1 (51.4%), had college or university education (75.4%), were married or had a partner (74.6%), had been pregnant (90.2%), had taken birth control pills for any reason (86.8%), and had an average body mass index of 26.6. Most had at least one mammogram (83%) with five mammograms the average number. Nearly all reported previously having a breast health examination from a medical practitioner (92.5%). Statistically significant factors identified in the PPO model included protective ones (older age at diagnosis, high household income, parity, smoking, spending time in the sun during high ultraviolet times, having a mammogram and high daily protein intake) and ones that increased risk of later stage at diagnosis (a comorbidity, current stressful situations and high daily caloric intake).ConclusionShifting breast cancer stage at diagnosis downwards may potentially be achieved through cancer prevention programs that target higher risk groups such as women with co-morbidities, non-smokers and younger women who may be eligible for breast cancer screening.     

Risk factors for breast cancer in women biopsied for benign breast disease: A nested case-control study

Aim: Women with a history of benign breast disease are at increased risk of subsequent breast cancer. However, few studies have examined whether established breast cancer risk factors other than histology are associated with an altered risk of breast cancer in women with benign breast disease. We used a nested case-control design within a large, multi-center cohort of women biopsied for benign breast disease (BBD) to estimate odds ratios for breast cancer in association with exposure to a range of personal and lifestyle factors. Methods: Cases were women biopsied for BBD who subsequently developed breast cancer; controls were individually matched to cases on center and age at diagnosis and were women biopsied for BBD who did not develop breast cancer in the same follow-up interval as that for the cases. After excluding women with prevalent breast cancer, 1357 records (661 case records and 696 records) were available for analysis. We used conditional logistic regression to obtain crude and multivariable-adjusted estimates of the association between specific factors and risk of breast cancer. Results: In multivariable analyses age at first live birth, number of pregnancies, and postmenopausal status were inversely associated with risk of breast cancer. The odds ratio for women with age at first birth <25 years and ≥3 pregnancies, relative to nulliparous women, was 0.49, 95% confidence interval 0.13–0.79, and that for postmenopausal women relative to premenopausal women was 0.60, 95% CI 0.37–0.99. Conclusions: Further study of personal factors influencing the risk of breast cancer in women with BBD may help to identify subgroups of the population at increased risk of invasive disease.     

Using Lifetime Risk Estimates in Personal Genomic Profiles: Estimation of Uncertainty

Personal genome tests are now offered direct-to-consumer (DTC) via genetic variants identified by genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for common diseases. Tests report risk estimates (age-specific and lifetime) for various diseases based on genotypes at multiple loci. However, uncertainty surrounding such risk estimates has not been systematically investigated. With breast cancer as an example, we examined the combined effect of uncertainties in population incidence rates, genotype frequency, effect sizes, and models of joint effects among genetic variants on lifetime risk estimates. We performed simulations to estimate lifetime breast cancer risk for carriers and noncarriers of genetic variants. We derived population-based cancer incidence rates from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program and comparative international data. We used data for non-Hispanic white women from 2003 to 2005. We derived genotype frequencies and effect sizes from published GWAS and meta-analyses. For a single genetic variant in FGFR2 gene (rs2981582), combination of uncertainty in these parameters produced risk estimates where upper and lower 95% simulation intervals differed by more than 3-fold. Difference in population incidence rates was the largest contributor to variation in risk estimates. For a panel of five genetic variants, estimated lifetime risk of developing breast cancer before age 80 for a woman that carried all risk variants ranged from 6.1% to 21%, depending on assumptions of additive or multiplicative joint effects and breast cancer incidence rates. Epidemiologic parameters involved in computation of disease risk have substantial uncertainty, and cumulative uncertainty should be properly recognized. Reliance on point estimates alone could be seriously misleading.     

Short term increase in risk of breast cancer after full term pregnancy.

To determine whether there is a short term increase in the risk of breast cancer after a full term birth data from two hospital based, case-control studies in Italy were pooled. Analysis was restricted to women aged under 50 with two or more children (573 women with cancer and 570 controls). A relative risk for breast cancer of 2.66 was seen in women who had given birth during the three years preceding the interview compared with women whose last birth had occurred 10 or more years before, after adjustment for age, age at first birth, and parity. The relative risk slowly decreased for women who had last given birth three to 10 years before. Multivariate analyses confirmed the protective effect of an early age at first birth and the age dependent effect of parity on the risk of breast cancer--that is, a direct relation below age 40 and an inverse one in older women. These data provide epidemiological evidence that a full term birth is followed by a transient increase in the risk of breast cancer, which for some time contrasts with and overcomes the long term protection of pregnancy at an early age. They therefore confirm predictions from animal studies and theoretical models that pregnancy prevents the early stages of breast carcinogenesis but promotes the late stages of the process.     

Time since childbirth and prognosis in primary breast cancer: population based study.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether time since birth of last child was of prognostic importance in women with primary breast cancer. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study based on a population based database of breast cancer diagnoses with detailed information on tumour characteristics, treatment regimens, reproductive factors, and vital status. SETTING: Denmark. SUBJECTS: 5652 women with primary breast cancer aged 45 years or less at the time of diagnosis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: 5 and 10 year survival; relative risk of dying. RESULTS: Women diagnosed in the first 2 years after last childbirth had a crude 5 year survival of 58.7% and 10 year survival of 46.1% compared with 78.4% and 66.0% for women whose last childbirth was more than 2 years before their diagnosis. After adjustment for age, reproductive factors, and stage of disease (tumour size, axillary nodal status, and histological grading), a diagnosis sooner than 2 years since last childbirth was significantly associated with a poor survival (relative risk 1.58, 95% confidence interval 1.24 to 2.02) compared with women who gave birth more than 5 years previously. Further analyses showed that the effect was not modified by age at diagnosis, tumour size, and nodal status. CONCLUSIONS: A diagnosis of breast cancer less than 2 years after having given birth is associated with a particularly poor survival irrespective of the stage of disease at debut. Therefore, a recent pregnancy should be regarded as a negative prognostic factor and should be considered in counselling these patients and in the decisions regarding adjuvant treatment.     

Recent time-trends of age-specific death rates for breast cancer: Quebec and other provinces, 1965 through 1974.

For the 10-year period 1965 through 1974 the age-specific death rates for cancer of the breast decreased among middle-aged women, especially at ages 40 to 49 years, in Quebec, the Maritimes and the Prairies but not in Ontario or British Columbia. In women under 35 years of age the mortality generally increased, while in women aged 60 to 64 years there was little change except in the Prairies, where the rate increased. It seems probable that the trends reflect changes in incidence rather than in case-fatality. Some, but not all, of the pattern could be explained by changes in fertility over the past 50 years.     

DDT (dicophane) and postmenopausal breast cancer in Europe: case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To examine any possible links between exposure to DDE (1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis (p-chlorophenyl)ethylene), the persistent metabolite of the pesticide dicophane (DDT), and breast cancer. DESIGN: Multicentre study of exposure to DDE by measurement of adipose tissue aspirated from the buttocks. Laboratory measurements were conducted in a single laboratory. Additional data on risk factors for breast cancer were obtained by standard questionnaires. SETTING: Centres in Germany, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Switzerland, and Spain. SUBJECTS: 265 postmenopausal women with breast cancer and 341 controls matched for age and centre. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Adipose DDE concentrations. RESULTS: Women with breast cancer had adipose DDE concentrations 9.2% lower than control women. No increased risk of breast cancer was found at higher concentrations. The odds ratio of breast cancer, adjusted for age and centre, for the highest versus the lowest fourth of DDE distribution was 0.73 (95% confidence interval 0.44 to 1.21) and decreased to 0.48 (0.25 to 0.95; P for trend = 0.02) after adjustment for body mass index, age at first birth, and current alcohol drinking. Adjustment for other risk factors did not materially affect these estimates. CONCLUSIONS: The lower DDE concentrations observed among the women with breast cancer may be secondary to disease inception. This study does not support the hypothesis that DDE increases risk of breast cancer in postmenopausal women in Europe.     

Modification of BRCA1-associated breast cancer risk by the polymorphic androgen-receptor CAG repeat

Compared with the general population, women who have inherited a germline mutation in the BRCA1 gene have a greatly increased risk of developing breast cancer. However, there is also substantial interindividual variability in the occurrence of breast cancer among BRCA1 mutation carriers. We hypothesize that other genes, particularly those involved in endocrine signaling, may modify the BRCA1-associated age-specific breast cancer risk. We studied the effect of the CAG repeat-length polymorphism found in exon 1 of the androgen-receptor (AR) gene (AR-CAG). AR alleles containing longer CAG repeat lengths are associated with a decreased ability to activate androgen-responsive genes. Using a sample of women who inherited germline BRCA1 mutations, we compared AR-CAG repeat length in 165 women with and 139 women without breast cancer. We found that women were at significantly increased risk of breast cancer if they carried at least one AR allele with >/=28 CAG repeats. Women who carried an AR-CAG allele of >/=28, >/=29, or >/=30 repeats were given a diagnosis 0.8, 1.8, or 6.3 years earlier than women who did not carry at least one such allele. All 11 women in our sample who carried at least one AR-CAG allele with >/=29 repeats had breast cancer. Our results support the hypothesis that age at breast cancer diagnosis is earlier among BRCA1 mutation carriers who carry very long AR-CAG repeats. These results suggest that pathways involving androgen signaling may affect the risk of BRCA1-associated breast cancer.     

Reproductive factors and breast cancer risk among BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers: Results from ten studies

Although reproductive factors are among the most well-established risk factors for breast cancer in the general population, it is still a matter for debate whether these factors act as risk modifiers among BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. This meta-analysis is the first to be performed to determine the relationship between reproductive factors and breast cancer risk among BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers. We searched the PubMed database up to February 2013. A total of ten studies met the inclusion criteria. The results showed that the reproductive factors may be associated with breast cancer risk only among BRCA1 mutation carriers. No association was found between parity and breast cancer risk. Compared with women at the youngest age in the first-birth category, women in the oldest age category were at a 38% lower risk of breast cancer (RR = 0.62, 95%CI = 0.45–0.85). Breastfeeding for at least 1 or 2 years was associated with a 37% reduction in breast cancer risk (RR = 0.63, 95%CI = 0.46–0.86). Women at the oldest age in the menarche category were at a 34% lower risk of breast cancer (RR = 0.66, 95%CI = 0.53–0.81) than women in the youngest age category. However, none of the reproductive factors were associated with breast cancer risk among BRCA2 mutation carriers. In conclusion, late age at first birth, breastfeeding, and late age at menarche protect against breast cancer in BRCA1 mutation carriers only. Further studies are needed to explore the mechanisms.     

Maternal age at last birth in Egypt

To assess the effects of women's education, residence, and marital experience on their age at the birth of their last child, a proportional hazards regression model was applied to 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey (EFS) data. The detailed data include the date of birth of each child for every women interviewed, and the woman's date of birth and age at interview. Age at last birth was examined by regression analysis on birth history and socioeconomic information. 4 hypotheses were tested: women who are well educated have a greater probability of ending childbearing earlier than women with less education; women in rural areas have a higher probability of having their last child at older ages than urban women; marital disruption without remarriage lowers the probability of older maternal age at last birth; and marital disruption with remarriage increases the probability that a woman stops reproducing at an older age. The overall chi-square indicates a significant regression. All coefficients were significant, except the coefficient for women with intact 1st marriages. Women with more education had a greater probability of ending childbearing earlier than women with less education. Rural women tended to have their last children at ages significantly older than overall age at last birth. Current residence in urban areas had the opposite effect. The coefficient for those with intact 1st marriages was insignificant, meaning that the mean age at last birth for this group of women was not much different from the overall mean. Remarried women tended to end childbearing at ages significantly older than the overall average age at last birth, suggesting that these women tended to have children by their new husbands. Those with dissolved 1st marriages who had not remarried had a higher probability of ending childbearing earlier than did older women. Marriage age and final parity had highly significant negative coefficients; as marriage age and number of children born increased, so did the "survival" time or the age at last birth. Results from the hazards model indicate that the effects were as anticipated. The median age at last birth for the total sample of women aged 45-49 was 45-49 years. The median age at last birth was about 2 years older for rural compared to urban women. Illiterate women had the oldest median age at last birth of the education groups. There was little differences between median ages at last birth for women with intact 1st marriages and those whose 1st unions were dissolved and who had remarried. The median age at last birth increased with final parity.     

Is there a real risk of radiation-induced breast cancer for postmenopausal women?

The risk of radiation-induced breast cancer decreases with increasing age at exposure. Thus, for calculating the individual risk for a patient undergoing mammography, age-related risk coefficients need to be used. In this report, the results of epidemiological studies on risks of radiation-induced breast cancer are reviewed indicating that the available data do not show the risk to be enhanced for women exposed at the age of 55 years or older. This lack of evidence is reflected by the fact that the risk coefficients recommended by national and international advisory bodies differ by a factor of 10 or more for age at exposure of 50–60 years or older. A hypothesis is proposed indicating that the risk of radiation-induced breast cancer might decrease considerably at the time of menopause. The hypothesis is based on the following line of arguments: (1) evidence has accumulated from molecular genetic studies indicating that the development of colorectal cancer requires a cascade of subsequent mutations consisting of at least seven genetic events. (2) For colorectal cancer, the annual rates of incidence and mortality increase with age to the power of 5–6. Thus, the number of mutation steps (minus 1) is approximately reflected by the power of age dependence. (3) For western populations, the incidence and mortality of breast cancer up to the age of about 50 years increase with age to the power of about 6, indicating that a similar number of genetic events might be involved in development of breast cancer as has been identified for colorectal cancer. (4) For women aged 50 years or older, breast cancer occurs at an annual rate that is about proportional to age or age squared. This may mean that after menopause, the processes in the multistep mutation cascade leading to breast cancer are slowed down by a factor of about 4 or more. (5) The constant relative risk model of radiation carcinogenesis implies for solid cancers that radiation acts by inducing additional mutations in the earlier steps of the multistep cascade. It is suggested that the break-point in the age-specific annual rate of breast cancer incidence at menopause is associated with a corresponding drop in radiation sensitivity with respect to induction of breast cancer. Received: 8 January 2001 / Accepted: 20 March 2001     

Risk factors for breast cancer in the breast cancer risk model study of Guam and Saipan

BackgroundChamorro Pacific Islanders in the Mariana Islands have breast cancer incidence rates similar to, but mortality rates higher than, those of U.S. women. As breast cancer risk factors of women of the Mariana Islands may be unique because of ethnic and cultural differences, we studied established and suspected risk factors for breast cancer in this unstudied population.MethodsFrom 2010–2013, we conducted retrospective case-control study of female breast cancer (104 cases and 185 controls) among women in the Mariana Islands. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated for each of various lifestyle-related factors from logistic regression of breast cancer, in all women and in pre- and postmenopausal women separately. Tests for interaction of risk factors with ethnicity were based on the Wald statistics for cross-product terms.ResultsOf the medical and reproductive factors considered — age at menarche, breastfeeding, number of live births, age at first live birth, hormone use, and menopause — only age at first live birth was confirmed. Age at first live birth, among parous women, was higher among cases (mean 24.9 years) than controls (mean 23.2 years); with increased breast cancer risk (OR = 2.53; 95% CI, 1.04–6.19 for age ≥ 30y compared to <20y, P for trend = 0.01). Of the lifestyle factors —body mass index, waist circumference, physical activity, alcohol and betel-nut intake, and education — only waist circumference (OR = 1.65; 95% CI 0.87–3.14 for the highest tertile group compared to the lowest, P for trend = 0.04) was significantly associated with breast cancer risk and only in Filipino women. The association with many other established risk factors, such as BMI, hormone use and physical activity, were in the expected direction but were not significant. Associations for family history of breast cancer and alcohol intake were not evidentConclusionsThe results provide a basis for cancer prevention guidance for women in the Mariana Islands.