Importance of Seasonality for the Response of a Mesic Temperate Grassland to Increased Precipitation Variability and Warming

Timing of precipitation events within the growing season and the non-uniformity of warming might be decisive for alterations in productivity and community composition, with consequences for ecosystem functioning. The responses of aboveground production, community composition, functional group and species evenness to altered intra-annual precipitation variability and their interactions with winter or summer warming were examined in European, mesic temperate grassland. Increased precipitation variability with an induced spring drought resulted in a 17% reduction in ANPP, and late drought reduced ANPP by 18% compared to regular rainfall patterns throughout the entire growing season. Winter warming increased ANPP by 12%, whereas summer warming showed no significant effect on biomass but decreased species richness. The effects of increased precipitation variability and warming on ANPP were independent of each other. Forbs benefited from high precipitation variability with spring drought events, likely due to reduced competitive pressure by decreasing, water stressed grasses. Increased precipitation variability coinciding with higher summer temperatures led to reduced species evenness and likely promoted the establishment of specialists and drought-tolerant species. Seasonality of climatic factors, here early versus late drought events in the high precipitation variability treatments, was important in driving shifts in community composition but not for decreases in ANPP. Non-uniform warming, here winter versus summer, affected the direction of response of both community composition and ANPP. Variability of resources is affecting ecosystem processes and species interactions. Recognition of seasonality and non-uniformity of climatic factors will improve predictions of plant performance and biotic interactions in response to climate change.     

Does climate determine broad‐scale patterns of species richness? A test of the causal link by natural experiment

Aim Broad‐scale spatial patterns of species richness are very strongly correlated with climatic variables. If there is a causal link, i.e. if climate directly or indirectly determines patterns of richness, then when the climatic variables change, richness should change in the manner that spatial correlations between richness and climate would predict. The present study tests this prediction using seasonal changes in climatic variables and bird richness. Location We used a grid of equal area quadrats (37 000 km²) covering North and Central America as far south as Nicaragua. Methods Summer and winter bird distribution data were drawn from monographs and field guides. Climatic data came from published sources. We also used remotely sensed NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index — a measure of greenness). Results Bird species richness changes temporally (between summer and winter) in a manner that is close to, but statistically distinguishable from, the change one would predict from models relating the spatial variation in richness at a single time to climatic variables. If one further takes into account the seasonal changes in NDVI and within‐season variability of temperature and precipitation, then winter and summer richness follow congruent, statistically indistinguishable patterns. Main conclusions Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that climatic variables (temperature and precipitation) and vegetation cover directly or indirectly influence patterns of bird species richness.     

Is the Sonoran Desert losing its cool?

Freezing temperatures strongly influence vegetation in the hottest desert of North America, in part determining both its overall boundary and distributions of plant species within. To evaluate recent variability of freezing temperatures in this context, minimum temperature data from weather stations in the Sonoran Desert are examined. Data show widespread warming trends in winter and spring, decreased frequency of freezing temperatures, lengthening of the freeze‐free season, and increased minimum temperatures per winter year. Local land use and multidecadal modes of the global climate system such as the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation do not appear to be principal drivers of this warming. Minimum temperature variability in the Sonoran Desert does, however, correspond to global temperature variability attributed to human‐dominated global warming. With warming expected to continue at faster rates throughout the 21st century, potential ecological responses may include contraction of the overall boundary of the Sonoran Desert in the south‐east and expansion northward, eastward, and upward in elevation, as well as changes to distributions of plant species within and other characteristics of Sonoran Desert ecosystems. Potential trajectories of vegetation change in the Sonoran Desert region may be affected or made more difficult to predict by uncertain changes in warm season precipitation variability and fire. Opportunities now exist to investigate ecosystem response to regional climate disturbance, as well as to anticipate and plan for continued warming in the Sonoran Desert region.     

Global patterns of plant diversity

Summary Using 94 data sets from across the globe, we explored patterns of mean community species richness, landscape species richness, mean similarity among communities and mosaic diversity. Climate affected community species richness primarily through productivity while other climatic factors were secondary. Climatic equability affected species richness only in temperate regions where richness was greatest at high levels of temperature variability and low levels of precipitation variability. Landscape species richness correlated positively with community species richness. A global gradient in mean similarity existed but was uncorrelated with community species richness. Mean similarity was least and mosaic diversity was greatest between 25 and 30° latitude. The most diverse landscapes (low mean similarity) correlated with warm temperatures, high elevations, large areas and large seasonal temperature fluctuations. The most complex landscapes (high mosaic diversity) correlated with large areas, high productivity and warm winters. We compared diversity measures among continents and found only one significant difference: Australian landscapes have greater mosaic diversity than African landscapes. Based on our analyses we propose two hypotheses: (1) for plants, biotic interactions are more important in structuring landscapes in warmer climates and (2) longer isolated landscapes have more clearly differentiated ecological subunits.     

Patterns of tree species richness in Jalisco,Mexico: relation to topography,climate and forest structure

The objective of this study was to identify the major environmental variables and components of forest structure associated with variability in tree species richness on a network of 806 permanent plots in the State of Jalisco, Mexico. Tree data recorded on the sample plots were used to characterize tree species richness by forest type and climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation) in the State. Species composition and other diversity indices were also calculated. Explanatory variables identified in a Poisson regression identified forest cover type, elevation, tree basal area, canopy closure, and winter precipitation as being important to changes in tree species richness. An “extreme quantile curve estimation” approach was then used to approximate the boundary that represented the maximum potential species richness response to the various levels of important variables. Maximum tree species richness decreased with increasing elevation. The relationships between maximum species richness and tree basal area, canopy closure, and winter precipitation followed a hump-back unimodal model, with intermediate values supporting the largest species richness. We believe that results of the current study will contribute to further development of a conservation plan for tree species in the State of Jalisco, Mexico.     

Global diversity of island floras from a macroecological perspective

Islands harbour a significant portion of all plant species worldwide. Their biota are often characterized by narrow distributions and are particularly susceptible to biological invasions and climate change. To date, the global richness pattern of islands is only poorly documented and factors causing differences in species numbers remain controversial. Here, we present the first global analysis of 488 island and 970 mainland floras. We test the relationship between island characteristics (area, isolation, topography, climate and geology) and species richness using traditional and spatial models. Area is the strongest determinant of island species numbers ( R ² = 0.66) but a weaker predictor for mainlands ( R ² = 0.25). Multivariate analyses reveal that all investigated variables significantly contribute to insular species richness with area being the strongest followed by isolation, temperature and precipitation with about equally strong effects. Elevation and island geology show relatively weak yet significant effects. Together these variables account for 85% of the global variation in species richness.     

Effects of experimental warming on biodiversity depend on ecosystem type and local species composition

Climatic warming is a primary driver of change in ecosystems worldwide. Here, we synthesize responses of species richness and evenness from 187 experimental warming studies in a quantitative meta‐analysis. We asked 1) whether effects of warming on diversity were detectable and consistent across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems, 2) if effects on diversity correlated with intensity, duration, and experimental unit size of temperature change manipulations, and 3) whether these experimental effects on diversity interacted with ecosystem types. Using multilevel mixed linear models and model averaging, we also tested the relative importance of variables that described uncontrolled environmental variation and attributes of experimental units. Overall, experimental warming reduced richness across ecosystems (mean log‐response ratio = –0.091, 95% bootstrapped CI: –0.13, –0.05) representing an 8.9% decline relative to ambient temperature treatments. Richness did not change in response to warming in freshwater systems, but was more strongly negative in terrestrial (–11.8%) and marine (–10.5%) experiments. In contrast, warming impacts on evenness were neutral overall and in aquatic systems, but weakly negative on land (7.6%). Intensity and duration of experimental warming did not explain variation in diversity responses, but negative effects on richness were stronger in smaller experimental units, particularly in marine systems. Model‐averaged parameter estimation confirmed these main effects while accounting for variation in latitude, ambient temperature at the sites of manipulations, venue (field versus lab), community trophic type, and whether experiments were open or closed to colonization. These analyses synthesize extensive experimental evidence showing declines in local richness with increased temperature, particularly in terrestrial and marine communities. However, the more variable effects of warming on evenness were better explained by the random effect of site identity, suggesting that effects on species’ relative abundances were contingent on local species composition. Synthesis A global research priority is to understand the consequences of climate change for biodiversity. A growing number of experimental studies have manipulated climatic drivers, in particular changes in temperature, in local communities. In the first quantitative meta‐analysis of community‐level studies across freshwater, marine and terrestrial experiments, species richness declined consistently with experimental warming. This effect was insensitive to warming intensity, duration, and multiple environmental and procedural covariates. However, evenness responses were weakly negative only in terrestrial systems and more variable across ecosystem types. Linear mixed model analyses revealed that the identity of local sites explained nearly 50% of variance in evenness effect sizes, compared to only 10% for richness. This result provides evidence that local species composition strongly constrains changes in relative species abundances in response to warming.     

Responses of soil respiration and its sensitivities to temperature and precipitation: A meta-analysis

Global warming has caused changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, and the subsequent effects on the dynamics of soil respiration (Rs) have had a significant impact on the global carbon balance. Despite numerous studies, the interacting responses of Rs to multiple causes of global change are unknown. We combined studies of 178 temperature treatments and 134 precipitation treatments in a global meta-analysis to examine the response of Rs to temperature and precipitation treatments in terrestrial ecosystems. The results showed that the average warming and precipitation increased Rs by 13.1% and 33.1%, respectively. The effect sizes of Rs were positive for other global variables (mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), elevation and duration of experiment (DUR)). Moreover, the effect size of Rs decreased exponentially with increasing DUR warming and decreased parabolically with increasing precipitation change, indicating a strong dependence of Rs on global climate conditions. Moreover, the two-way and multi-dimensional interactions of global changing factors have created the positive effects of the individual effects. Rainfall is a key factor in the interaction experiments between precipitation and warming in farmland and urban grassland ecosystems, and other environmental factors interacted significantly with precipitation and temperature, indirectly altering Rs. As multiple global climate change factors often occur simultaneously, it is important to conduct long-term multifactorial experiments to assess the response of Rs to global changes.     

Influence of temperature and nutrients on species richness of deep water corals from the western coast of the Americas

Studies on biogeography of stony corals from the eastern Pacific have been conducted in detail only for reef species, and to date there have been no attempts to explain the differences of regional species richness on the basis of oceanographic conditions. The objective of this work was to determine the relationship between deep-water (<200 m) scleractinian species richness along the western coast of the Americas, and four oceanographic variables (temperature, nitrates, phosphates and silicates), and the feasibility to use this information to model effects of global warming on those associations. Data on coral distribution were gathered from bibliography and museum collections, while information on oceanographic conditions from 200 to 2000 m depth was obtained from NOAA atlases. Species richness, estimated for intervals of 5 degrees of latitude, was correlated with abiotic factors using the Spearman rank coefficient. In the Northern Hemisphere, total species richness was positively influenced by temperature, but negatively by nutrients. In contrast, there was no effect of those factors on coral diversity in the Southern Hemisphere. At the family level, high temperatures favored species richness of Caryophylliidae and Dendrophylliidae north of the Equator, but diversity was reduced in areas of high concentration of silicates. In the Southern Hemisphere, temperature was not associated with deep-water coral richness, but correlated negatively with diversity of Caryophylliidae. Nutrients also showed an inverse relationship with richness of the latter family. In the rest of the families analyzed, there was no apparent effect of oceanic conditions on species richness in the Southern Hemisphere. The results indicated that richness may be influenced by changes in oceanographic factors (especially temperature and silicate concentration). Then, it is feasible to develop numerical models to predict possible changes in deep-water coral diversity on the basis of scenarios from global warming models.     

Disentangling the paradox of insect phenology: are temporal trends reflecting the response to warming?

The strength and direction of phenological responses to changes in climate have been shown to vary significantly both among species and among populations of a species, with the overall patterns not fully resolved. Here, we studied the temporal and spatial variability associated with the response of several insect species to recent global warming. We use hierarchical models within a model comparison framework to analyze phenological data gathered over 40 years by the Japan Meteorological Agency on the emergence dates of 14 insect species at sites across Japan. Contrary to what has been predicted with global warming, temporal trends of annual emergence showed a later emergence day for some species and sites over time, even though temperatures are warming. However, when emergence data were analyzed as a function of temperature and precipitation, the overall response pointed out an earlier emergence day with warmer conditions. The apparent contradiction between the response to temperature and trends over time indicates that other factors, such as declining populations, may be affecting the date phenological events are being recorded. Overall, the responses by insects were weaker than those found for plants in previous work over the same time period in these ecosystems, suggesting the potential for ecological mismatches with deleterious effects for both suites of species. And although temperature may be the major driver of species phenology, we should be cautious when analyzing phenological datasets as many other factors may also be contributing to the variability in phenology.     

Neophyte species richness at the landscape scale under urban sprawl and climate warming

Aim Land use and climate are two major components of global environmental change but our understanding of their simultaneous and interactive effects upon biodiversity is still limited. Here, we investigated the relationship between the species richness of neophytes, i.e. non‐native vascular plants introduced after 1500 AD, and environmental covariates to draw implications for future dynamics under land‐use and climate change. Location Switzerland, Central Europe. Methods The distribution of vascular plants was derived from a systematic national grid of 1 km² quadrates (n = 456; Swiss Biodiversity Monitoring programme) including 1761 species, 122 of which were neophytes. Generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to correlate neophyte species richness with environmental covariates. The impact of land‐use and climate change was thereafter evaluated by projections for the years 2020 and 2050 using scenarios of moderate and strong changes for climate warming (IPCC) and urban sprawl (NRP 54). Results Mean annual temperature and the amount of urban areas explained neophyte species richness best, with a high predictive power of the corresponding model (cross‐validated D² = 0.816). Climate warming had a stronger impact on the potential increase in the mean neophyte species richness (up to 191% increase by 2050) than ongoing urban sprawl (up to 10% increase) independently from variable interactions and model extrapolations to non‐analogue environments. Main conclusions In contrast to other vascular plants, the prediction of neophyte species richness at the landscape scale in Switzerland requires few variables only, and regions of highest species richness of the two groups do not coincide. The neophyte species richness is basically driven by climatic (temperature) conditions, and urban areas additionally modulate small‐scale differences upon this coarse‐scale pattern. According to the projections climate warming will contribute to the future increase in neophyte species richness much more than ongoing urbanization, but the gain in new neophyte species will be highest in urban regions.     

Environment–richness relationships for mammals,birds, reptiles,and amphibians at global and regional scales

Climate has been routinely indicated as a major determinant of broad-scale species richness patterns for a variety of taxa, but studies vary widely in attributing richness variation to the broad-scale distribution of energy, water, ecosystem productivity, habitat heterogeneity, or some combination thereof. Here, I report global and regional environment–richness relationships for the four classes of terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians) using identical sample units and the same set of climate (temperature, precipitation, annual actual evapotranspiration), productivity (normalized difference vegetation index), and topographic (elevation range) variables. My results strongly support concomitant availability of energy and water as the principal constraint on global richness for all vertebrate groups except reptiles, which are largely constrained by temperature. However, environment–richness models for all taxonomic groups varied widely when applied to single (continental-scale) biogeographic realms. In particular, I found strong support for the ‘water–energy dynamics hypothesis’ that models richness as a function of ambient energy (temperature) in high latitudes and water availability (precipitation) at low latitudes, partially independent of productivity. Ectotherm groups were more constrained by temperature than endotherms, and amphibians were more constrained by water availability than other groups. Although habitat heterogeneity, measured as elevation range, was a consistent contributor to global and regional richness models for all groups, its contribution was always minor compared to other variables. I conclude that temperature and water availability are key variables for modeling broad-scale vertebrate richness, but there remains significant room for taxon-specific modeling approaches and for the inclusion of non-climate factors related to evolutionary history and faunal assembly in different regions.     

Macroecological patterns of spider species richness across Europe

We analysed the pattern of covariation of European spider species richness with various environmental variables at different scales. Four layers of perception ranging from single investigation sites to the whole European continent were selected. Species richness was determined using published data from all four scales. Correlation analyses and stepwise multiple linear regression were used to relate richness to topographic, climatic and biotic variables. Up to nine environmental variables were included in the analyses (area, latitude, elevation range, mean annual temperature, local variation in mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean July temperature, local variation in mean July temperature, plant species richness). At the local and at the continental scale, no significant correlations with surface area were found, whereas at the landscape and regional scale, surface area had a significant positive effect on species richness. Factors that were positively correlated with species richness at both broader scales were plant species richness, elevation range, and specific temperature variables (regional scale: local variation in mean annual, and mean July temperature; continental scale: mean July temperature). Latitude was significantly negatively correlated with the species richness at the continental scale. Multiple models for spider species richness data accounted for up to 77% of the total variance in spider species richness data. Furthermore, multiple models explained variation in plant species richness up to 79% through the variables mean July temperature and elevation range. We conclude that these first continental wide analyses grasp the overall pattern in spider species richness of Europe quite well, although some of the observed patterns are not directly causal. Climatic variables are expected to be among the most important direct factors, although other variables (e.g. elevation range, plant species richness) are important (surrogate) correlates of spider species richness.     

Topography, energy and the global distribution of bird species richness

A major goal of ecology is to determine the causes of the latitudinal gradient in global distribution of species richness. Current evidence points to either energy availability or habitat heterogeneity as the most likely environmental drivers in terrestrial systems, but their relative importance is controversial in the absence of analyses of global (rather than continental or regional) extent. Here we use data on the global distribution of extant continental and continental island bird species to test the explanatory power of energy availability and habitat heterogeneity while simultaneously addressing issues of spatial resolution, spatial autocorrelation, geometric constraints upon species' range dynamics, and the impact of human populations and historical glacial ice-cover. At the finest resolution (1 degree), topographical variability and temperature are identified as the most important global predictors of avian species richness in multi-predictor models. Topographical variability is most important in single-predictor models, followed by productive energy. Adjusting for null expectations based on geometric constraints on species richness improves overall model fit but has negligible impact on tests of environmental predictors. Conclusions concerning the relative importance of environmental predictors of species richness cannot be extrapolated from one biogeographic realm to others or the globe. Rather a global perspective confirms the primary importance of mountain ranges in high-energy areas.     

Climate mediates the effects of disturbance on ant assemblage structure

Many studies have focused on the impacts of climate change on biological assemblages, yet little is known about how climate interacts with other major anthropogenic influences on biodiversity, such as habitat disturbance. Using a unique global database of 1128 local ant assemblages, we examined whether climate mediates the effects of habitat disturbance on assemblage structure at a global scale. Species richness and evenness were associated positively with temperature, and negatively with disturbance. However, the interaction among temperature, precipitation and disturbance shaped species richness and evenness. The effect was manifested through a failure of species richness to increase substantially with temperature in transformed habitats at low precipitation. At low precipitation levels, evenness increased with temperature in undisturbed sites, peaked at medium temperatures in disturbed sites and remained low in transformed sites. In warmer climates with lower rainfall, the effects of increasing disturbance on species richness and evenness were akin to decreases in temperature of up to 9°C. Anthropogenic disturbance and ongoing climate change may interact in complicated ways to shape the structure of assemblages, with hot, arid environments likely to be at greatest risk.     

Environmental determinants of amphibian and reptile species richness in China

Understanding the factors that regulate geographical variation in species richness has been one of the fundamental questions in ecology for decades, but our knowledge of the cause of geographical variation in species richness remains poor. This is particularly true for herpetofaunas (including amphibians and reptiles). Here, using correlation and regression analyses, we examine the relationship of herpetofaunal species richness in 245 localities across China with 30 environmental factors, which include nearly all major environmental factors that are considered to explain broad-scale species richness gradients in such theories as ambient energy, water–energy dynamics, productivity, habitat heterogeneity, and climatic stability. We found that the species richness of amphibians and reptiles is moderately to strongly correlated with most of the environmental variables examined, and that the best fit models, which include explanatory variables of temperature, precipitation, net primary productivity, minimum elevation, and range in elevation, explain ca 70% the variance in species richness for both amphibians and reptiles after accounting for sample area. Although water and temperature are important explanatory variables to both amphibians and reptiles, water variables explain more variance in amphibian species richness than in reptile species richness whereas temperature variables explain more variance in reptile species richness than in amphibian species richness, which is consistent with different physiological requirements of the two groups of organisms.     

Latitudinal diversity gradients in bryophytes and woody plants: Roles of temperature and water availability

It remains unclear whether the latitudinal diversity gradients of micro- and macro-organisms are driven by the same macro-environmental variables. We used the newly completed species catalog and distribution information of bryophytes in China to explore their spatial species richness patterns, and to investigate the underlying roles of energy availability, climatic seasonality, and environmental heterogeneity in shaping these patterns. We then compared these patterns to those found for woody plants. We found that, unlike woody plants, mosses and liverworts showed only weakly negative latitudinal trends in species richness. The spatial patterns of liverwort richness and moss richness were overwhelmingly explained by contemporary environmental variables, although explained variation was lower than that for woody plants. Similar to woody plants, energy and climatic seasonality hypotheses dominate as explanatory variables but show high redundancy in shaping the distribution of bryophytes. Water variables, that is, the annual availability, intra-annual variability and spatial heterogeneity in precipitation, played a predominant role in explaining spatial variation of species richness of bryophytes, especially for liverworts, whereas woody plant richness was affected most by temperature variables. We suggest that further research on spatial patterns of bryophytes should incorporate the knowledge on their ecophysiology and evolution.     

中国蚂蚁丰富度地理分布格局及其与环境因子的关系

物种丰富度分布格局及其形成机制的研究对于生物多样性保护具有重要意义。为了了解中国蚂蚁物种丰富度分布格局,利用中国省级尺度蚂蚁物种分布数据和环境信息,结合GIS和数理统计方法,探讨蚂蚁物种丰富度的地理分布格局与环境因子之间的关系。研究结果表明:(1)蚂蚁丰富度随纬度增加呈逐渐递减趋势,但缺乏显著的经度梯度。丰富度最高的地区主要集中在南方省份,我国北方、西北干旱区和青藏高原北部地区丰富度较低;(2)简单线性回归分析表明,能量、水分和季节性因素中,影响蚂蚁物种丰富度最强的因子分别为最冷月均温(TEMmin)(R2adj=0.532)、年均降水量(PREC)(R2adj=0.376)和年温度变化范围(TEMvar)(R2adj=0.539),而单个生境异质性因子对蚂蚁物种丰富度的影响均不显著;(3)最优模型由年均温(TEM)、海拔变化范围(ELErange)和年温度变化范围(TEMvar)组成,能够解释68.4%的蚂蚁丰富度地理分异。鉴于海拔变化范围更多地反映与温度相关的生境异质性,因此温度是限制中国蚂蚁分布的最重要因素。另外,分析结果还表明,海南、贵州、江西、四川、安徽和山西等6省蚂蚁区系调查最不充分,是未来发现蚂蚁新分布的热点地区。