Impact of unintentional selective harvesting on the population dynamics of red grouse

1.?The effect of selective exploitation of certain age, stage or sex classes (e.g., trophy hunting) on population dynamics is relatively well studied in fisheries and sexually dimorphic mammals. 2.?Harvesting of terrestrial species with no morphological differences visible between the different age and sex classes (monomorphic species) is usually assumed to be nonselective because monomorphicity makes intentionally selective harvesting pointless and impractical. But harvesting of the red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus), a monomorphic species, was recently shown to be unintentionally selective. This study uses a sex- and age-specific model to explore the previously unresearched effects of unintentional harvesting selectivity. 3.?We examine the effects of selectivity on red grouse dynamics by considering models with and without selectivity. Our models include territoriality and parasitism, two mechanisms known to be important for grouse dynamics. 4.?We show that the unintentional selectivity of harvesting that occurs in red grouse decreases population yield compared with unselective harvesting at high harvest rates. Selectivity also dramatically increases extinction risk at high harvest rates. 5.?Selective harvesting strengthens the 3- to 13-year red grouse population cycle, suggesting that the selectivity of harvesting is a previously unappreciated factor contributing to the cycle. 6.?The additional extinction risk introduced by harvesting selectivity provides a quantitative justification for typically implemented 20-40% harvest rates, which are below the maximum sustainable yield that could be taken, given the observed population growth rates of red grouse. 7.?This study shows the possible broad importance of investigating in future research whether unintentionally selective harvesting occurs on other species.     

Maternal effects on offspring consumption can stabilize fluctuating predator–prey systems

Maternal effects, where the conditions experienced by mothers affect the phenotype of their offspring, are widespread in nature and have the potential to influence population dynamics. However, they are very rarely included in models of population dynamics. Here, we investigate a recently discovered maternal effect, where maternal food availability affects the feeding rate of offspring so that well-fed mothers produce fast-feeding offspring. To understand how this maternal effect influences population dynamics, we explore novel predator–prey models where the consumption rate of predators is modified by changes in maternal prey availability. We address the ‘paradox of enrichment'', a theoretical prediction that nutrient enrichment destabilizes populations, leading to cycling behaviour and an increased risk of extinction, which has proved difficult to confirm in the wild. Our models show that enriched populations can be stabilized by maternal effects on feeding rate, thus presenting an intriguing potential explanation for the general absence of ‘paradox of enrichment'' behaviour in natural populations. This stabilizing influence should also reduce a population''s risk of extinction and vulnerability to harvesting.     

Spatial synchrony in red grouse population dynamics

Red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus populations exhibit unstable dynamics that are often characterised by regular periodic fluctuations in abundance. Time-series' of grouse harvesting records collected from 287 management units (moors) across Scotland, England and Wales were analysed to investigate the broad scale patterns of synchrony in these fluctuations. Estimation of the spatial autocorrelation of grouse population dynamics across moors indicates relatively high levels of synchrony between populations on adjacent moors, but that this synchrony declines sharply with increasing inter-moor distance. At distances of greater than 100  km, grouse population time-series exhibit only weakly positive cross-correlation coefficients. Twenty-eight geographical, environmental and other candidate variables were examined to construct a general linear model to explain variation in local synchrony. Grouse moor productivity (average size of shooting bag), distance from the Atlantic coast moving in a north-easterly direction, April and June temperatures, and June rainfall significantly increased the explanatory power of this model. An understanding of the processes underlying synchrony in red grouse population dynamics is a prerequisite to anticipating the effects of large-scale environmental change on regional patterns of grouse distribution and abundance.     

Developing population models for guiding reintroductions of extirpated bird species back to the New Zealand mainland

Population models are useful tools to guide management as they allow us to project growth and persistence of wildlife populations under different scenarios. Nevertheless, good data are needed to produce reliable models, and this requirement is problematic in some situations. North Island saddlebacks (Philesturnus rufusater) were reintroduced to Boundary Stream Mainland Island in September 2004, and this was the first time this species had occurred in an unfenced mainland area since their extirpation in the 19th century. This situation creates a challenging scenario for population modelling, as this species has never been studied in the presence of mainland predators, and management of these predators will be the key factor determining whether the population survives. In this paper we present an approach for developing a “prior model” before a reintroduction takes place. We use data from the reintroduced saddleback population on Mokoia Island to develop a model of how saddleback populations are regulated in the absence of mammalian predators. We use this model to project growth of a reintroduced population when vital rates are reduced by predation and also to project responses of source populations to harvesting of birds for translocation. We then incorporate data from the reintroduced North Island robin (Petroica longipes) population at Paengaroa Mainland Island to model the relationship between population parameters and predator tracking rates. The combined model can be used to predict the level of predator control needed to ensure growth of the saddleback population, but the prediction is contingent on guessing the relative vulnerability of robins and saddlebacks to predation. We envision using a Bayesian approach to update such prior models as site-specific data become available after reintroduction.     

Habitat loss and raptor predation: disentangling long- and short-term causes of red grouse declines

The number of red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) shot in the UK has declined by 50% during the 20th century This decline has coincided with reductions in the area of suitable habitat and recoveries in the populations of some avian predators. Here we use long-term records of shooting bags and a large-scale manipulation of raptor density to disentangle the effects of habitat loss and raptor predation on grouse populations. The numbers of grouse harvested on the Eskdale half of Langholm Moor in southern Scotland declined significantly during 1913-1990 and grouse bags from the whole moor from 1950 to 1990 exhibited an almost identical but non-significant trend. Hen harriers (Circus cyaneus) and peregrine falcons (Falco peregrinus) were absent or bred at low densities on this moor throughout this period but heather-dominant vegetation declined by 48% between 1948 and 1988. Harrier and peregrine breeding numbers on Langholm Moor increased to high levels following protection in 1990 whilst grouse density and grouse bags declined year after year until shooting was abandoned in 1998. The prediction of a peak in grouse bags on Langholm Moor in 1996 based on the patterns of bags during 1950-1990 was supported by the observed peaks in 1997 on two nearby moors with few raptors which formerly cycled in synchrony with Langholm Moor. This study demonstrates that, whilst long-term declines in grouse bags were most probably due to habitat loss, high levels of raptor predation subsequently limited the grouse population and suppressed a cycle. This study thus offers support to theoretical models which predict that generalist predators may suppress cycles in prey populations.     

PREY ADAPTATION AS A CAUSE OF PREDATOR-PREY CYCLES

We analyze simple models of predator-prey systems in which there is adaptive change in a trait of the prey that determines the rate at which it is captured by searching predators. Two models of adaptive change are explored: (1) change within a single reproducing prey population that has genetic variation for vulnerability to capture by the predator; and (2) direct competition between two independently reproducing prey populations that differ in their vulnerability. When an individual predator's consumption increases at a decreasing rate with prey availability, prey adaptation via either of these mechanisms may produce sustained cycles in both species' population densities and in the prey's mean trait value. Sufficiently rapid adaptive change (e.g., behavioral adaptation or evolution of traits with a large additive genetic variance), or sufficiently low predator birth and death rates will produce sustained cycles or chaos, even when the predator-prey dynamics with fixed prey capture rates would have been stable. Adaptive dynamics can also stabilize a system that would exhibit limit cycles if traits were fixed at their equilibrium values. When evolution fails to stabilize inherently unstable population interactions, selection decreases the prey's escape ability, which further destabilizes population dynamics. When the predator has a linear functional response, evolution of prey vulnerability always promotes stability. The relevance of these results to observed predator-prey cycles is discussed.     

Evaluating spatially explicit viability of a declining ruffed grouse population

Species associated with early successional habitats have experienced dramatic declines in the eastern United States as a result of land use changes and human disruption of natural disturbance regimes. Consequently, active management is required to create early successional habitat and promote plant and animal communities that depend on periodic forest disturbance. Ruffed grouse (Bonasa umbellus) depend on recently disturbed forest habitat, and have experienced dramatic declines over the last half-century. Although ruffed grouse are extensively studied, little effort has been made to link population dynamics with habitat management at landscape scales. We used stochastic, spatially explicit population models that combined landscape conditions derived from a Geographic Information System with demographic data, and applied the model to a declining ruffed grouse population in Rhode Island, USA. We identified vital rates that influence ruffed grouse population dynamics using baseline models constructed with current demographic rates and landscape conditions, and assessed the effect of landscape-scale forest management alternatives on population persistence by running multiple management simulations. Baseline models typically predicted population decline, and we concluded that vital rates (survival and recruitment) had a greater influence on population persistence than did dispersal capability, carrying capacity, or initial population size. Management simulations predicted greater population persistence under a scenario where high-quality habitat was provided in fewer large blocks as opposed to many small blocks, and the rate at which we allowed ruffed grouse to colonize newly created habitat had a substantial impact on management success. Populations of ruffed grouse in the eastern United States are likely to continue to decline given current disturbance regimes, and our work provides a link between ruffed grouse demography and landscape-scale habitat conditions to support management decisions. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Complex numerical responses to top-down and bottom-up processes in vertebrate populations

Population growth rate is determined in all vertebrate populations by food supplies, and we postulate bottom-up control as the universal primary standard. But this primary control system can be overridden by three secondary controls: top-down processes from predators, social interactions within the species and disturbances. Different combinations of these processes affect population growth rates in different ways. Thus, some relationships between growth rate and density can be hyperbolic or even have multiple nodes. We illustrate some of these in marsupial, ungulate and rabbit populations. Complex interactions between food, predators, environmental disturbance and social behaviour produce the myriad observations of population growth in nature, and we need to develop generalizations to classify populations. Different animal groups differ in the combination of these four processes that affect them, in their growth rates and in their vulnerability to extinction. Because conservation and management of populations depend critically on what factors drive population growth, we need to develop universal generalizations that will relieve us from the need to study every single population before we can make recommendations for management.     

Are indirect measures of abundance a useful index of population density? The case of red grouse harvesting

Indirect measures of population abundance, such as harvest data, are often used to make inference on long term population dynamics when direct data are either not available or are logistically difficult to obtain. However, when harvesting records are used, a common concern is that they may not reflect actual population abundance. We investigated the extent to which harvest data reflected changes in population density of the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus in Great Britain. We used 92 independently managed populations over the period 1977–2000 and examined the temporal and spatial variability of the hunting records and independently obtained count data from each of these managed estates. Three different analyses support the conclusion that grouse hunting records are a reliable indicator of grouse abundance: 1) the number of red grouse shot in autumn showed a tendency to be linearly related to the density of individuals counted in the summer prior to the harvesting, 2) the relationships between the variance and the mean in the harvesting and corresponding count data, calculated over different populations at the same time, or the same locations at different times, were not statistically distinguishable, 3) similar direct and delayed density dependence patterns were observed in hunting records and count data. Our results suggest that red grouse hunting time series are a good proxy for population abundance.     

Population Dynamics of the Dioecious Amazonian Palm Mauritia flexuosa: Simulation Analysis of Sustainable Harvesting

The dioecious, tropical palm Mauritia flexuosa has high ecological and economic value, but currently some wild populations are harvested excessively, which is likely to increase. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of this important palm, the effects of harvesting, and suggested sustainable harvesting regimes. Data were collected from populations in the Ecuadorian Amazon that were assumed to be stable. We used a matrix population model to calculate the density-independent asymptotic population growth rate (λ= 1.046) and to evaluate harvesting scenarios. Elasticity analysis showed that survival (particularly in the second and fifth size class) contributes more to the population growth rate, than growth and fecundity. To simulate a stable population at carrying capacity, density dependence was incorporated and applied to the seedling survival and growth parameters in the transition matrix. Harvesting scenarios were simulated with the density-dependent population models to predict sustainable harvesting regimes for the dioecious palm. We simulated the removal of only female palms and showed how both sexes are affected with harvest intensities between 15 and 75 percent and harvest intervals of 1–15 yr. By assuming a minimum female threshold, we demonstrated a continuum of sustainable harvesting schedules for various intensities and frequencies for 100 yr of harvest. Furthermore, by setting the population model's λ= 1.00, we found that a harvest of 22.5 percent on a 20 yr frequency for the M. flexuosa population in Ecuador is consistent with a sustainable, viable population over time.     

Diet–demography relationships in a long‐lived predator: from territories to populations

Understanding the mechanisms that shape animal population dynamics is of fundamental interest in ecology, evolution and conservation biology. Food supply is an important limiting factor in most animal populations and may have demographic consequences. Optimal foraging theory predicts greater consumption of preferred prey and less diet diversity when food is abundant, which may benefit key fitness parameters such as productivity and survival. Nevertheless, the correspondence between individual resource use and demographic processes in populations of avian predators inhabiting large geographic areas remains largely unexplored, particularly in complex ecosystems such as those of the Mediterranean basin. Based on a long‐term monitoring program of the diet and demography of Bonelli's eagle Aquila fasciata in western Europe, here we test the hypothesis that a predator's diet is correlated to its breeding productivity and survival at both the territorial and population levels, and ultimately to its population growth rate. At the territorial level, we found that productivity increased with greater consumption of European rabbits Oryctolagus cuniculus, the Bonelli's eagle's preferred prey, and pigeons, an important alternative prey for this predator. The survival of territorial pairs was negatively affected by higher diet diversity, which probably reflected the inability to find sufficient high quality prey. Diet effects at the population level were similar but more noticeable than at the territorial level, i.e. a greater consumption of rabbits, together with lesser consumption of small‐to‐medium avian species (‘other birds’; non‐preferred prey), increased productivity, while greater diet diversity and lower consumption of rabbits was associated with reduced survival and population growth rate. Overall, our study illustrates how the diet of a predator species can be closely related to key individual vital rates, which, in turn, leave a measurable fingerprint on population dynamics within and among populations across large spatial scales.     

The role of game management in wildlife populations: uncertainty analysis of expert knowledge

Uncertainties about future states of wildlife populations make it difficult to pre-adapt to possible threats and ensure sustainability of resources and harvesting over the long term. This uncertainty is partly due to the unknown impact and future states of many factors that explain population sizes and variation. In this paper, the effect of local game management activities on the uncertainty of future population sizes of groups of Finnish wildlife species (ungulates, forest grouse, large predators, small predators and mountain hare) was analysed using expert knowledge and the Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) modelling techniques. As a result, the current knowledge and agreement of the relationships between wildlife population sizes and the game management activities explaining their variation as well as trends are evaluated. Information given to hunters and the number of hunters were seen as the most effective factors for the management of game populations. However, there were great uncertainties in the expectations regarding future trends in the management activities, especially in feeding, and there was disagreement in the direction of the trend in the length of the hunting season. The trends in the size of forest grouse populations were viewed as the most uncertain trend among species groups. At the same time, forest grouse were seen as the most regulated species group by local game management. Among interest variables, experts were very uncertain and they disagreed about the direction of the trend in the recreational value of hunting.     

Scaling from optimal behavior to population dynamics and ecosystem function

While behavioral responses of individual organisms can be predicted with optimal foraging theory, the theory of how individual behavior feeds back to population and ecosystem dynamics has not been fully explored. Ecological models of trophic interactions incorporating behavior of entire populations commonly assume either that populations act as one when making decisions, that behavior is slowly varying or that non-linear effects are negligible in behavioral choices at the population scale. Here, we scale from individual optimal behavior to ecosystem structure in a classic tri-trophic chain where both prey and predators adapt their behavior in response to food availability and predation risk. Behavior is modeled as playing the field, with both consumers and predators behaving optimally at every instant basing their choices on the average population behavior. We establish uniqueness of the Nash equilibrium, and find it numerically. By modeling the interactions as playing the field, we can perform instantaneous optimization at the individual level while taking the entire population into account. We find that optimal behavior essentially removes the effect of top-down forcing at the population level, while drastically changing the behavior. Bottom-up forcing is found to increase populations at all trophic levels. These phenomena both appear to be driven by an emerging constant consumption rate, corresponding to a partial satiation. In addition, we find that a Type III functional response arises from a Type II response for both predators and consumers when their behavior follows the Nash equilibrium, showing that this is a general phenomenon. Our approach is general and computationally efficient and can be used to account for behavior in population dynamics with fast behavioral responses.     

Optimal predator management for mountain sheep conservation depends on the strength of mesopredator release

Large predators often suppress ungulate population growth, but they may also suppress the abundance of smaller predators that prey on neonatal ungulates. Antagonistic interactions among predators may therefore need to be integrated into predator–prey models to effectively manage ungulate–predator systems. We present a modeling framework that examines the net impact of interacting predators on the population growth rate of shared prey, using interactions among wolves Canis lupus, coyotes Canis latrans and Dall sheep Ovis dalli dalli as a case study. Wolf control is currently employed on approximately 16 million ha in Alaska to increase the abundance of ungulates for human harvest. We hypothesized that the positive effects of wolf control on Dall sheep population growth could be counteracted by increased levels of predation by coyotes. Coyotes and Dall sheep adult females (ewes) and lambs were radiocollared in the Alaska Range from 1999–2005 to estimate fecundity, age‐specific survival rates, and causes of mortality in an area without wolf control. We used stage‐structured population models to simulate the net effect of wolf control on Dall sheep population growth (λ). Our models accounted for stage‐specific predation rates by wolves and coyotes, compensatory mortality, and the potential release of coyote populations due to wolf control. Wolves were the main predators of ewes, coyotes were the main predators of lambs, and wolves were the main source of mortality for coyotes. Population models predicted that wolf control could increase sheep λ by 4% per year in the absence of mesopredator release. However, if wolf control released coyote populations, our models predicted that sheep λ could decrease by up to 3% per year. These results highlight the importance of integrating antagonistic interactions among predators into predator–prey models, because the net effect of predator management on shared prey can depend critically on the strength of mesopredator release.     

Density dependence, regulation and open-closed populations: insights from the wigeon, Anas penelope

We investigated whether the degree of exchange with other populations affects the occurrence of density-dependent regulation. We contrasted data from an Icelandic and a Finnish population of breeding wigeons ( Anas penelope ), the former population being more closed than the later. We looked for density dependence in time-series data and investigated whether breeding success is density dependent and plays a role in population dynamics and regulation. Time-series analysis did not reveal density-dependent regulation in either population. Nor did we find evidence of density-dependent breeding success in either population. However, population growth rate appeared to be strongly dependent on the breeding success in the previous year in the closed population but not in the open population. Our findings underline how important it is to link time-series analysis to the study of potential stabilizing mechanisms in order to understand population dynamics and regulation. We also suggest that it may be a difficult task to achieve sustainability in waterfowl harvesting, the theoretical basis of which is density-dependent population regulation.     

Representing Density Dependent Consequences of Life History Strategies in Aquatic Ecosystems: EcoSim II

EcoSim II uses results from the Ecopath procedure for trophic mass-balance analysis to define biomass dynamics models for predicting temporal change in exploited ecosystems. Key populations can be represented in further detail by using delay-difference models to account for both biomass and numbers dynamics. A major problem revealed by linking the population and biomass dynamics models is in representation of population responses to changes in food supply; simple proportional growth and reproductive responses lead to unrealistic predictions of changes in mean body size with changes in fishing mortality. EcoSim II allows users to specify life history mechanisms to avoid such unrealistic predictions: animals may translate changes in feeding rate into changes in reproductive rather than growth rates, or they may translate changes in food availability into changes in foraging time that in turn affects predation risk. These options, along with model relationships for limits on prey availability caused by predation avoidance tactics, tend to cause strong compensatory responses in modeled populations. It is likely that such compensatory responses are responsible for our inability to find obvious correlations between interacting trophic components in fisheries time-series data. But Ecosim II does not just predict strong compensatory responses: it also suggests that large piscivores may be vulnerable to delayed recruitment collapses caused by increases in prey species that are in turn competitors/predators of juvenile piscivores. Received 24 February 1999; accepted 3 August 1999.     

Grouse dynamics and harvesting in Kainuu,northeastern Finland

We study the dynamics of the capercaillie, black grouse, hazel grouse and willow grouse in Kainuu game management district in northeastern Finland in the years 1989–2004. It appears that the 6–7 year periodicity that prevailed in this region from 1960s up to 1980s has now vanished in all species. The grouse data are modelled using a linear autoregressive model with lag terms for population dynamics including grouse harvest as annual bag and an index of winter severity (winter‐time area of Baltic Sea ice cover). We use the Akaike information criterion for selecting the best model for each species; first order lag is forced to the models. It turns out that a term is needed for harvesting (with a negative coefficient) in models for all species. For the capercaillie and the hazel grouse second order lag was included, for the black grouse and the willow grouse first order lag suffices. The willow grouse is the only species where the index of winter strength (with a negative coefficient) is needed in the model.     

Delayed numerical response of goshawks to population fluctuations of forest grouse

Delayed density-dependent mortality induced by delayed numerical response of predators can drive prey populations to fluctuate in high-amplitude cycles. We studied numerical response of goshawks Accipiter gentilis to varying densities of their main prey (forest grouse) in western Finland during 1979–1996. Occupancy rate of goshawk territories tracked grouse numbers with a two year lag. Occupancy rate of goshawk territories and pooled number of adult and young goshawks correlated negatively with a 1–2 year lag to the chick production of grouse. Goshawk to grouse ratio was negatively related to grouse density. This suggests that goshawk predation on grouse is inversely dependent on grouse density. We conclude that in northern Europe with few alternative preys, goshawk predation might contribute to the generation of multiannual cycles of forest grouse. This should be tested experimentally.     

Trophic cascades and trophic trickles in pelagic food webs

Prey-dependent models, with the predation rate (per predator) a function of prey numbers alone, predict the existence of a trophic cascade. In a trophic cascade, the addition of a top predator to a two-level food chain to make a three-level food chain will lead to increases in the population size of the primary producers, and the addition of nutrients to three-level chains will lead to increases in the population numbers at only the first and third trophic levels. In contrast, ratio-dependent models, with the predation rate (per predator) dependent on the ratio of predator numbers to prey, predict that additions of top predators will not increase the population sizes of the primary producers, and that the addition of nutrients to a three-level food chain will lead to increases in population numbers at all trophic levels. Surprisingly, recent meta-analyses show that freshwater pelagic food web patterns match neither prey-dependent models (in pelagic webs, ''prey'' are phytoplankton, and ''predators'' are zooplankton), nor ratio-dependent models. In this paper we use a modification of the prey-dependent model, incorporating strong interference within the zooplankton trophic level, that does yield patterns matching those found in nature. This zooplankton interference model corresponds to a more reticulate food web than in the linear, prey-dependent model, which lacks zooplankton interference. We thus reconcile data with a new model, and make the testable prediction that the strength of trophic cascades will depend on the degree of heterogeneity in the zooplankton level of the food chain.     

Evolutionary dynamics of prey exploitation in a metapopulation of predators

In well-mixed populations of predators and prey, natural selection favors predators with high rates of prey consumption and population growth. When spatial structure prevents the populations from being well mixed, such predators may have a selective disadvantage because they do not make full use of the prey's growth capacity and hence produce fewer propagules. The best strategy then depends on the degree to which predators can monopolize the exploitation of local prey populations, which in turn depends on the spatial structure, the number of migrants, and, in particular, the stochastic nature of the colonization process. To analyze the evolutionary dynamics of predators in a spatially structured predator-prey system, we performed simulations with a metapopulation model that has explicit local dynamics of nonpersistent populations, keeps track of the number of emigrants entering the migration pool, assumes individuals within local populations as well as within the migration pool to be well mixed, and takes stochastic colonization into account. We investigated which of the predator's exploitation strategies are evolutionarily stable and whether these strategies minimize the overall density of prey, as is the case in Lotka-Volterra-type models of competitive exclusion. This was analyzed by pairwise invasibility plots based on short-term simulations and tested by long-term simulation experiments of competition between resident and mutant predator-types that differed in one of the following parameters: the prey-to-predator conversion efficiency, the per capita prey consumption rate, or the per capita emigration rate from local populations. In addition, we asked which of these three strategies are most likely to evolve. Our simulations showed that under selection for conversion efficiency the predator-prey system always goes globally extinct yet persists under selection for consumption or emigration rates and that the evolutionarily stable (ES) exploitation strategies do not maximize local population growth rates. The most successful exploitation strategy minimizes the overall density of prey but does not make it settle exactly at the minimum. The system did not settle at the point where the mean time to co-invasion (i.e., immigration of a second predator in a local prey population) equals the mean local interaction time (an idea borne out from studies on host exploitation strategies in host-pathogen systems) but rather where the mean time to co-invasion was larger. The ES exploitation strategies represent more prudent strategies than the ones that minimize prey density. Finally, we show that-compared to consumption-emigration is a more likely target for selection to achieve prudent exploitation and that prudent exploitation strategies can evolve only provided the prey-to-predator conversion efficiency is subject to constraints.