Relative importance of factors controlling the success of Oxalis acetosella: an example of linear modelling in ecological research

An ecological hypothesis concerning the relative importance of factors governing the success of Oxalis acetosella on mesic upland forest sites in southern Finland was formulated and tested statistically by means of a multivariate linear model. The data consisted of a stratified random sample of 40 plots with biological measurements and associated observations on environmental variables. The covariance matrix between the incorporated variables was computed and the model parameters were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood provided by the computer programme LISREL V. The results supported the hypothesis based on previous observations and experiments: Oxalis acetosella benefits from a high nutrient level of the soil, but is decisively dependent on the shelter provided by the tree stand. When both spruce stands and well-lit pine stands on mesic and relatively rich forest sites were considered simultaneously, only a weak correlation was found between light availability and site fertility. Accordingly, the presumed value of Oxalis acetosella as an indicator of site fertility appears to be questionable. The adequacy of linear modelling in an ecological context is discussed. The kind of models applied in this study have only a limited application range in non-experimental ecological research. However, linear modelling may contribute to solving particular ecological problems in cases where short environmental gradients are considered so that nonlinearity is not a dominant feature.     

On valuing patches: estimating contributions to metapopulation growth with reverse-time capture-recapture modelling

Metapopulation ecology has historically been rich in theory, yet analytical approaches for inferring demographic relationships among local populations have been few. We show how reverse-time multi-state capture-recapture models can be used to estimate the importance of local recruitment and interpopulation dispersal to metapopulation growth. We use 'contribution metrics' to infer demographic connectedness among eight local populations of banner-tailed kangaroo rats, to assess their demographic closure, and to investigate sources of variation in these contributions. Using a 7 year dataset, we show that: (i) local populations are relatively independent demographically, and contributions to local population growth via dispersal within the system decline with distance; (ii) growth contributions via local survival and recruitment are greater for adults than juveniles, while contributions involving dispersal are greater for juveniles; (iii) central populations rely more on local recruitment and survival than peripheral populations; (iv) contributions involving dispersal are not clearly related to overall metapopulation density; and (v) estimated contributions from outside the system are unexpectedly large. Our analytical framework can classify metapopulations on a continuum between demographic independence and panmixia, detect hidden population growth contributions, and make inference about other population linkage forms, including rescue effects and source-sink structures. Finally, we discuss differences between demographic and genetic population linkage patterns for our system.     

Diet of stone martens: an example of ecological flexibility

The feeding ecology of the stone marten in a rural area of Central Italy was assessed by faecal analysis. Habitat analysis, performed through a Geographical Information System, and intensive radio-tracking allowed us to investigate intra-population variations of diet in relation to habitat. The species'feeding habits were opportunistic: fruit and berries were the staple diet but mammals and birds were also important. Diet varied seasonally in relation to resource availability, with a predominance of fruit in autumn and frequent presence of insects in summer. Individuals living in adjacent areas but in different habitats (wooded and rural) showed significant variations of diet, adapting their feeding habits to local availability of foods. The great adaptability of the stone marten to very different resource conditions can represent a key to the species'success through its wide range.     

PhosphoScore: an open-source phosphorylation site assignment tool for MSn data

Correct phosphorylation site assignment is a critical aspect of phosphoproteomic analysis. Large-scale phosphopeptide data sets that are generated through liquid chromatography-coupled tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) analysis often contain hundreds or thousands of phosphorylation sites that require validation. To this end, we have created PhosphoScore, an open-source assignment program that is compatible with phosphopeptide data from multiple MS levels (MS(n)). The algorithm takes into account both the match quality and normalized intensity of observed spectral peaks compared to a theoretical spectrum. PhosphoScore produced >95% correct MS(2) assignments from known synthetic data, > 98% agreement with an established MS(2) assignment algorithm (Ascore), and >92% agreement with visual inspection of MS(3) and MS(4) spectra.     

Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data

‘Big-data’ epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements.     

生态足迹方法:可持续性定量研究的新方法——以张掖地区1995年的生态足迹计算为例

生态足迹是一种定量测量人类对自然利用程度的新方法。通过跟踪区域的能源和资源消费,将它们转化为提供这种物质流所必须的各种生物生产型土地类型的面积,并同区域能提供的生物生产型土地面积进行比较,能定量判断一个区域的发展是否处于生态承载能力的范围内,介绍了生态足迹的概念及生态足迹计算模型,分析总结了生态足迹模型的优缺点等,在此基础上,对张掖地区1995年生态足迹进行了实证计算和分析,结果表明1995年张掖地区人均生态字为0．34hm^2.     

From sensor data to animal behaviour: an oystercatcher example

Animal-borne sensors enable researchers to remotely track animals, their physiological state and body movements. Accelerometers, for example, have been used in several studies to measure body movement, posture, and energy expenditure, although predominantly in marine animals. In many studies, behaviour is often inferred from expert interpretation of sensor data and not validated with direct observations of the animal. The aim of this study was to derive models that could be used to classify oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) behaviour based on sensor data. We measured the location, speed, and tri-axial acceleration of three oystercatchers using a flexible GPS tracking system and conducted simultaneous visual observations of the behaviour of these birds in their natural environment. We then used these data to develop three supervised classification trees of behaviour and finally applied one of the models to calculate time-activity budgets. The model based on accelerometer data developed to classify three behaviours (fly, terrestrial locomotion, and no movement) was much more accurate (cross-validation error?=?0.14) than the model based on GPS-speed alone (cross-validation error?=?0.35). The most parsimonious acceleration model designed to classify eight behaviours could distinguish five: fly, forage, body care, stand, and sit (cross-validation error?=?0.28); other behaviours that were observed, such as aggression or handling of prey, could not be distinguished. Model limitations and potential improvements are discussed. The workflow design presented in this study can facilitate model development, be adapted to a wide range of species, and together with the appropriate measurements, can foster the study of behaviour and habitat use of free living animals throughout their annual routine.     

Floating stereospecific assignment revisited: Application to an 18 kDa protein and comparison with J-coupling data

We report a floating chirality procedure to treat nonstereospecifically assigned methylene orisopropyl groups in the calculation of protein structures from NMR data using restrainedmolecular dynamics and simulated annealing. The protocol makes use of two strategies toinduce the proper conformation of the prochiral centres: explicit atom swapping followingan evaluation of the NOE energy term, and atom floating by reducing the angle andimproper force constants that enforce a defined chirality at the prochiral centre. The individualcontributions of both approaches have been investigated. In addition, the effects of accuracyand precision of the interproton distance restraints were studied. The model system employedis the 18 kDa single-stranded DNA binding protein encoded by Pseudomonas bacteriophagePf3. Floating chirality was applied to all methylene and isopropyl groups that give rise to non-degenerate NMR signals, and the results for 34 of these groups were compared to J-couplingdata. We conclude that floating stereospecific assignment is a reliable tool in protein structurecalculation. Its use is beneficial because it allows the distance restraints to be extracteddirectly from the measured peak volumes without the need for averaging or addingpseudoatom corrections. As a result, the calculated structures are of a quality almostcomparable to that obtained with stereospecific assignments. As floating chirality furthermoreis the only approach treating prochiral centres that ensures a consistent assignment of the twoproton frequencies in a single structure, it seems to be preferable over using pseudoatoms or(R-6) averaging.     

Importance of fish behaviour in modelling conservation problems: food limitation as an example

Simulation experiments using the inSTREAM individual-based brown trout Salmo trutta population model explored the role of individual adaptive behaviour in food limitation, as an example of how behaviour can affect managers' understanding of conservation problems. The model includes many natural complexities in habitat (spatial and temporal variation in characteristics such as depth and velocity, temperature, hiding and feeding cover, drift-food supply and predation risk), fish physiology (especially, how food intake and growth vary with hydrodynamics, cover, fish size and temperature) and behaviour. When drift-food concentration was increased over a wide range in 7 year simulations, the simulated population was always food limited. In fact, as food supply increased, the population increased at an increasing rate and consumed a higher percentage of the food supply, apparently because higher food concentrations make more stream area energetically profitable for drift feeders. The behaviour most responsible for this response was activity selection: when food was abundant, fish chose to feed less frequently and more nocturnally, thereby reducing predation mortality so more fish survived longer. These results indicate that the traditional concept of food limitation, that food availability stops limiting population size when it exceeds some threshold level, may not be useful and can be misleading. Results also strongly contradict the concept that a salmonid population is not food limited if the total food supply is greater than the population's consumption. Explicit consideration of adaptive behaviour produced a novel but believable understanding of food effects on salmonid populations. Published 2011. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.     

Habitat suitability modelling of an invasive plant with advanced remote sensing data

Aim  Lepidium latifolium (Brassicaceae; perennial pepperweed) is a noxious Eurasian weed invading riparian and wetland areas of the western USA. Understanding which sites are most susceptible to invasion by L. latifolium will allow more efficient management of this weed. We assessed the ability of advanced remote sensing techniques to develop habitat suitability models for L. latifolium .
Location  San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, California, USA.
Methods  Lepidium latifolium distribution was mapped with hyperspectral image data of Rush Ranch Open Space Preserve, providing presence/absence data to train and validate habitat models. A high-resolution light detection and ranging digital elevation model was used to derive predictor environmental variables (distance to channel, distance to upland, elevation, slope, aspect and convexity). Aggregate decision tree models were used to predict the potential distribution of this species.
Results  Lepidium latifolium infested two zones: near the marshland–upland margin and along channels within the marsh. Topographical data, which are typically strongly correlated with wetland species distributions, were relatively unimportant to L. latifolium occurrence, although relevant microtopography information, particularly relative elevation, was subsumed in the distance to channel variable. The map of potential L. latifolium distribution reveals that Rush Ranch contains considerable habitat that it is susceptible to continued invasion.
Main conclusions  Lepidium latifolium invades relatively less stressful sites along the inundation and salinity gradients. Advanced remote sensing datasets were shown to be sufficient for species distribution modelling. Remote sensing offers powerful tools that deserve wider use in ecological research and management.     

The effect of an extreme winter on per-capita growth rates in some resident bird populations: an example of r-selection?

Among the breeding birds of an English oakwood studied over a period of 27 years, five species averaged more than 10 pairs. Two of these populations, the robin and especially the wren, crashed after the extreme winter 1962–1963, whereas the populations of three other (group II) species did not crash. In stepwise multiple regressions between per-capita growth rate, r , and four winter temperatures, population size and year, population size was selected in all species. Winter temperatures were selected only in robin and wren. The residual variation of r which remained after the selected variables were used in a multiple regression equation was randomly distributed around zero in the three group II species. In the robin and wren, however, the residual values for the years following the cold winter were significantly higher compared to those in the years before it. This suggests that something changed either in the environment or in the birds. Robin residuals after the cold winter returned towards zero, whereas wren residuals remained at the new high level. I argue that these results can best be explained through assuming that catastrophic winter mortality was non-random and could have caused micro-evolutionary changes in life-history traits.     

Temporal dynamics of bird community composition: an analysis of baseline conditions from long-term data

Numerous anthropogenic activities threaten the biodiversity found on earth. Because all ecological communities constantly experience temporal turnover due to natural processes, it is important to distinguish between change due to anthropogenic impact and the underlying natural rate of change. In this study, we used data sets on breeding bird communities that covered at least 20 consecutive years, from a variety of terrestrial ecosystems, to address two main questions. (1) How fast does the composition of bird communities change over time, and can we identify a baseline of natural change that distinguishes primeval systems from systems experiencing varying degrees of human impact? (2) How do patterns of temporal variation in composition vary among bird communities in ecosystems with different anthropogenic impacts? Time lag analysis (TLA) showed a pattern of increasing rate of temporal compositional change from large-scale primeval systems to disturbed and protected systems to distinctly successional systems. TLA slopes of <0.04 were typical for breeding bird communities with natural turnover, while communities subjected to anthropogenic impact were characterised by TLA slopes of >0.04. Most of the temporal variability of breeding bird communities was explained by slow changes occurring over decades, regardless of the intensity of human impact. In most of the time series, medium- and short-wave periodicity was not detected, with the exception of breeding bird communities subjected to periodic pulses (e.g. caterpillar outbreaks causing food resource peaks).     

Patterns of differential introgression in a salamander hybrid zone: inferences from genetic data and ecological niche modelling

Hybrid zones have yielded considerable insight into many evolutionary processes, including speciation and the maintenance of species boundaries. Presented here are analyses from a hybrid zone that occurs among three salamanders –Plethodon jordani, Plethodon metcalfi and Plethodon teyahalee– from the southern Appalachian Mountains. Using a novel statistical approach for analysis of non‐clinal, multispecies hybrid zones, we examined spatial patterns of variation at four markers: single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) located in the mtDNA ND2 gene and the nuclear DNA ILF3 gene, and the morphological markers of red cheek pigmentation and white flecks. Concordance of the ILF3 marker and both morphological markers across four transects is observed. In three of the four transects, however, the pattern of mtDNA is discordant from all other markers, with a higher representation of P. metcalfi mtDNA in the northern and lower elevation localities than is expected given the ILF3 marker and morphology. To explore whether climate plays a role in the position of the hybrid zone, we created ecological niche models for P. jordani and P. metcalfi. Modelling results suggest that hybrid zone position is not determined by steep gradients in climatic suitability for either species. Instead, the hybrid zone lies in a climatically homogenous region that is broadly suitable for both P. jordani and P. metcalfi. We discuss various selective (natural selection associated with climate) and behavioural processes (sex‐biased dispersal, asymmetric reproductive isolation) that might explain the discordance in the extent to which mtDNA and nuclear DNA and colour‐pattern traits have moved across this hybrid zone.     

Iterative species distribution modelling and ground validation in endemism research: an Alpine jumping bristletail example

Endemic species play an important role in conservation ecology. However, knowledge of the real distribution and ecology is still scarce for many endemics. The aims of this study were to predict the distribution of the short-range endemic Alpine jumping bristletail Machilis pallida; to evaluate the actual level of endemism via ground validation using an iterative approach for testing the models in field trips and increasing the quality of the prediction step by step; and to test the potential of species distribution modelling for increasing the knowledge about the ecological niche. Based on seven known locations of M. pallida, we used species distribution modelling via Maxent. After a set of seven field trips a new model was built if new locations were found. Three such iterations were performed to increase model quality. We discovered four new locations of M. pallida, increasing the area of known distribution from 470 to 4,890?km². The distribution of M. pallida is thus wider than formerly known, but our results support Eastern Alpine endemism of the species. The knowledge about the ecological niche could be increased due to the newly found locations. Our study showcases the potential of the iterative approach of modelling and ground validation to evaluate the actual level of endemism and the ecological niche in Alpine species and beyond.     

Forecasting ecological and evolutionary strategies to global change: an example from habitat selection by lemmings

Ecologists and evolutionary biologists must develop theories that can predict the consequences of global warming and other impacts on Earth's biota. Theories of adaptive habitat selection are particularly promising because they link distribution and density with fitness. The evolutionarily stable strategy that emerges from adaptive habitat choice is given by the system's habitat isodar, the graph of densities in pairs of habitats such that the expectation of fitness is the same in each. We illustrate how isodars can be converted into adaptive landscapes of habitat selection that display the density‐ and frequency‐dependent fitness of competing strategies of habitat use. The adaptive landscape varies with the abundance of habitats and can thus be used to predict future adaptive distributions of individuals under competing scenarios of habitat change. Application of the theory to three species of Arctic rodents living on Herschel Island in the Beaufort Sea predicts changes in selection gradients as xeric upland increases in frequency with global warming. Selection gradients will become more shallow for brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) and tundra vole (Microtus oeconomus) strategies that preferentially exploit mesic habitat. Climate change will cause selection gradients for the alternative strategy of using mostly xeric habitat to become much steeper. Meanwhile, the adaptive landscape for collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus), which specialize on xeric Dryas‐covered upland, will become increasingly convex. Changes in the adaptive landscapes thus predict expanding niches for Lemmus and Microtus, and a narrower niche for Dicrostonyx. The ability to draw adaptive landscapes from current patterns of distribution represents one of the few methods available to forecast the consequences of climate change on the future distribution and evolution of affected species.     

Visitor management and ecological integrity: one example of an integrated management approach using Decision Analysis

In this paper we argue in favour of using a decision analysis framework for more integrated decision-making when managing protected areas. Such an approach will enable agencies to balance between the frequently conflicting goals of visitor management and ecological integrity. We present a case study from the West Coast Trail in Pacific Rim National Park Reserve, BC, Canada, in which we use a hybrid of ELECTRE and AHP to establish a ranking of several management options. We conclude by suggesting that such a more formal framework constitutes a more objective decision support tool, assists in framing relevant management questions and tradeoffs, and at the same time provides guidance for data collection.     

Ecological niche modelling as an exploratory tool for identifying species limits: an example based on Mexican muroid rodents

Niche conservatism theory suggests that recently diverged sister species share the same ecological niche. However, if the ecological niche evolves as part of the speciation process, the ecological pattern could be useful for recognizing cryptic species. In a broad sense systematists agree that the niche characters could be used for species differentiation. However, to date such characters have been ignored. We used the genetic algorithm for rule‐set production for modelling the ecological niche as a means of inferring ecological divergence in allopatric populations of muroid rodents for which taxonomic identity is uncertain. Our results show that niche differentiation is significant in most of the identified phylogroups. The differentiation is likely associated with natural evolutionary units, which can be identified by applying species concepts based on phylogenetic and ecological patterns (e.g. phylogenetic, cohesive, evolutionary). Even so, the role of the niche partition within phylogenetic reconstruction may be a limited one.