毛果苔草湿地植物营养元素分布及其相关性

研究生物与环境中化学因子之间的相互作用过程 ,主要是指化学物质在生态系统中的运移、转化及归趋与效应。化学物质包括营养物质、污染物质和在生物与环境之间、生物与生物之间起媒介作用的次生代谢物质[1] 。对植物不同组织营养成分的季节性变化研究多集中于叶子 ,但对其他部分的研究则较少[10 ] ,分解过程并不是完全始于凋落物到达地面 ,在凋落前就受到渗滤、裂解和真菌的作用[12 ] ;对枯落物中的有机物质和营养物质浓度的了解可以预测枯落物的分解速率[11] 。目前 ,湿地的研究偏重于资源的开发与利用 ,而对湿地生态系统的生态过程的定位…     

Testing trend for count data with extra-Poisson variability

Trend tests for monotone trend or umbrella trend (monotone upward changing to monotone downward or vise versa) in count data are proposed when the data exhibit extra-Poisson variability. The proposed tests, which are called the GS1 test and the GS2 test, are constructed by applying an orthonormal score vector to a generalized score test under an rth-order log-linear model. These tests are compared by simulation with the Cochran-Armitage test and the quasi-likelihood test of Piegorsch and Bailer (1997, Statistics for Environmental Biology and Toxicology). It is shown that the Cochran-Armitage test should not be used under the existence of extra-Poisson variability; that, for detecting monotone trend, the GS1 test is superior to the others; and that the GS2 test has high power to detect an umbrella response.     

Effect of climate change,CO2 trends,nitrogen addition,and land‐cover and management intensity changes on the carbon balance of European grasslands

Several lines of evidence point to European managed grassland ecosystems being a sink of carbon. In this study, we apply ORCHIDEE‐GM a process‐based carbon cycle model that describes specific management practices of pastures and the dynamics of carbon cycling in response to changes in climatic and biogeochemical drivers. The model is used to simulate changes in the carbon balance [i.e., net biome production (NBP)] of European grasslands over 1991–2010 on a 25 km × 25 km grid. The modeled average trend in NBP is 1.8–2.0 g C m^?2 yr^?2 during the past two decades. Attribution of this trend suggests management intensity as the dominant driver explaining NBP trends in the model (36–43% of the trend due to all drivers). A major change in grassland management intensity has occurred across Europe resulting from reduced livestock numbers. This change has ‘inadvertently’ enhanced soil C sequestration and reduced N₂O and CH₄ emissions by 1.2–1.5 Gt CO₂‐equivalent, offsetting more than 7% of greenhouse gas emissions in the whole European agricultural sector during the period 1991–2010. Land‐cover change, climate change and rising CO₂ also make positive and moderate contributions to the NBP trend (between 24% and 31% of the trend due to all drivers). Changes in nitrogen addition (including fertilization and atmospheric deposition) are found to have only marginal net effect on NBP trends. However, this may not reflect reality because our model has only a very simple parameterization of nitrogen effects on photosynthesis. The sum of NBP trends from each driver is larger than the trend obtained when all drivers are varied together, leaving a residual – nonattributed – term (22–26% of the trend due to all drivers) indicating negative interactions between drivers.     

Bounded random walks as a null model for evaluating population trends

Management of wildlife and protection of endangered species depend on determination of population trends. Because population changes are stochastic and autoregressive, there is reason to believe that population trends might not be properly determined by simple regression over short time periods. A bounded random walk (BRW) model is introduced as a null model for evaluating population trends. The BRW model shows long-term stability but rising and falling sequences of up to many decades. For a given variability and survey length, there will be an expected probability of finding a greater than X% slope simply by chance. This false positive probability needs to be considered when evaluating trends. Breeding Bird Survey data for 128 species over 46 years for two states were analyzed for trends for different series lengths. Trends estimated from short series were likely to not agree with the 46-year trends. Very short series (e.g., 5 years) tended to indicate no trend due to loss of statistical power. A 101-year series for sandwich term (Sterna sandvicensis) revealed that even for 40 year-long series, 33% of subset series had a negative trend compared to the strong 101 year full series positive trend. The BRW model simulations and both data sets pointed to 20 years as a minimum time period for estimating trends reliably, though this can be longer for species that tend to cycle. Proper inference should thus consider the implications of inherent time series variability.     

黄河源头地区土地覆盖的时空变化特征

以野外调查和遥感影像为主要信息源, 结合统计资料和基础地理信息数据, 研究了20世纪80年代中期以来黄河源头地区土地覆盖格局的空间特征以及动态变化趋势, 探讨了导致黄河源区生态环境变化的主要影响因素。研究结果表明, 黄河源头地区土地覆盖类型的斑块密度变化差异明显;土地利用类型的镶嵌格局在空间和时间上均有变化。占据优势的草地生态系统20 年来遭受不同程度破坏, 黄河源区的气候呈暖干化趋势, 研究区域土地覆盖类型空间结构变化明显;高寒环境和气候演化趋势对土地覆盖的变化起决定性作用。     

Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change

Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982–2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW) was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR) with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP) and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17–36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1–2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO₂ sequestration capacity.     

Detecting long‐term growth trends using tree rings: a critical evaluation of methods

Tree‐ring analysis is often used to assess long‐term trends in tree growth. A variety of growth‐trend detection methods (GDMs) exist to disentangle age/size trends in growth from long‐term growth changes. However, these detrending methods strongly differ in approach, with possible implications for their output. Here, we critically evaluate the consistency, sensitivity, reliability and accuracy of four most widely used GDMs: conservative detrending (CD) applies mathematical functions to correct for decreasing ring widths with age; basal area correction (BAC) transforms diameter into basal area growth; regional curve standardization (RCS) detrends individual tree‐ring series using average age/size trends; and size class isolation (SCI) calculates growth trends within separate size classes. First, we evaluated whether these GDMs produce consistent results applied to an empirical tree‐ring data set of Melia azedarach, a tropical tree species from Thailand. Three GDMs yielded similar results – a growth decline over time – but the widely used CD method did not detect any change. Second, we assessed the sensitivity (probability of correct growth‐trend detection), reliability (100% minus probability of detecting false trends) and accuracy (whether the strength of imposed trends is correctly detected) of these GDMs, by applying them to simulated growth trajectories with different imposed trends: no trend, strong trends (?6% and +6% change per decade) and weak trends (?2%, +2%). All methods except CD, showed high sensitivity, reliability and accuracy to detect strong imposed trends. However, these were considerably lower in the weak or no‐trend scenarios. BAC showed good sensitivity and accuracy, but low reliability, indicating uncertainty of trend detection using this method. Our study reveals that the choice of GDM influences results of growth‐trend studies. We recommend applying multiple methods when analysing trends and encourage performing sensitivity and reliability analysis. Finally, we recommend SCI and RCS, as these methods showed highest reliability to detect long‐term growth trends.     

Comparison of audio recording system performance for detecting and monitoring songbirds

ABSTRACT Acoustic recording systems are being used more frequently to estimate habitat occupancy or relative abundance, and to monitor population trends over time. A potential concern with digital recording systems is that changes in technology could affect detectability of birds and cause bias in trend estimates based on counts of birds detected. We evaluated several currently available commercial recording systems ranging from low‐cost multipurpose digital recorders to custom‐designed wildlife recorders (US$250–$7000 price range) to examine possible differences among systems in species detection. We made recordings during Breeding Bird Surveys (BBS) counts using several units concurrently, and asked several expert birders to listen to the recordings in a factorial design. We found that birders detected, on average, 10% fewer species on some units compared to others, though there was high variance. Analysis of a subset of recordings, using spectrograms and repeated listening, suggested that ～90% of species on each BBS stop could be clearly detected on all units. The remaining species could be identified on at least one unit, but were hard or impossible to detect on others. We found that the recording unit with the lowest empirical signal‐to‐noise‐ratio (SNR) had the lowest number of birds detected on the BBS recordings, and that frequency‐specific SNR differed among units. Missed detections were likely related to variation in internal noise and frequency‐dependent sensitivity of the units, and were an issue for all systems regardless of price. We caution that researchers using recorders need to consider variation among recording systems in their study design, particularly for long‐term monitoring programs.     

Annual Rhythm of Body Weight in Przewalski Horses (Equus ferus przewalskii)

The live-weight of female Przewalski horses in a semi-natural reserve has been recorded continuously over 6 years by means of an automatic weighing machine and automatic identification. Data were tested for cyclic as well as for linear trend effects and a mathematical model was developed. A clear annual rhythm of live-weight with the maximum in October was demonstrated. During the first 2 years of recording, the level of the annual rhythm was constant but, thereafter, different individual trends were found. Those individuals showing a steeply rising trend suffered from laminitis after three annual cycles. The periods of rising body weight corresponded to unusual mild winters. Animals newly introduced into the reserve from zoos showed a rise in their body weight in an adaptation phase. Furthermore, there was evidence for a phase adjustment of the annual rhythm. The results are discussed against a background of the theory of annual rhythms, and can be used as a basis for seasonal variations of feeding in zoos and for a re-evaluation of recommendations for population density in similar reserves. For reintroductions as well as for a transfer from zoos to semi-natural reserves, a longer adaptation phase is recommended.     

Shifting trends: detecting environmentally mediated regulation in long-lived marine vertebrates using time-series data

Assessing the status and trends in animal populations is essential for effective species conservation and management practices. However, unless time-series abundance data demonstrate rapid and reliable fluctuations, objective appraisal of directionality of trends is problematic. We adopted a multiple-working hypotheses approach based on information-theoretic and Bayesian multi-model inference to examine the population trends and form of intrinsic regulation demonstrated by a long-lived species, the southern elephant seal. We also determined the evidence for density dependence in 11 other well-studied marine mammal species. (1) We tested the type of population regulation for elephant seals from Marion Island (1986–2004) and from 11 other marine mammal species, and (2) we described the trends and behavior of the 19-year population time series at Marion Island to identify changes in population trends. We contrasted five plausible trend models using information-theoretic and Bayesian-inference estimates of model parsimony. Our analyses identified two distinct phases of population growth for this population with the inflexion occurring in 1998. Thus, the population decreased between 1986 and 1997 (−3.7% per annum) and increased between 1997 and 2004 (1.9% per annum). An index of environmental stochasticity, the Southern Oscillation Index, explained some of the variance in r and N. We determined analytically that there was good evidence for density dependence in the Marion Island population and that density dependence was widespread among marine mammal species (67% of species showed evidence for population regulation). This approach demonstrates the potential functionality of a relatively simple technique that can be applied to short time series to identify the type of regulation, and the uncertainty associated with the phenomenon, operating in populations of large mammals.     

The impact of climatic change on butterfly geography: does climatic change produce coincident trends in populations,distributions and ranges?

With climatic warming is the expectation of coincident changes in distributions and range limits driven by population changes. An outstanding question is whether such coincident changes (positive or negative) occur, especially in smaller regions in which management for change tends to be conducted. Using atlas and survey monitoring data (BMS) we studied population and distribution changes in 31 butterfly species in North West England over three recording periods (1940–1994, 1995–2001, 2001–2007). We found that since the first recording period many more species have shifted their centres of gravity significantly northwards and uphill than have increased in population abundance (density) and distribution cover. At the same time, far fewer species have effectively shifted southwards and downhill than have decreased in density and distribution cover. A significant association between change in distribution cover and density is divorced from the weaker association between shifts in altitude and northing; whereas many species are gaining northwards and at higher altitude, they are doing so from a failing base at lower altitude and at the core of their distributions. Usually losses at lower altitudes are ascribed to loss of biotopes. But, declines in some species, such as Lasiommata megera, are occurring at a much faster rate than physical changes to the landscape and in land uses. The findings of this study indicate that changes in populations, distributions and ranges are a great deal more complex than hitherto considered. Currently, the basis for such rapid changes is not being supported by detailed autecology on species.     

Gender-specific trends in cigarette smoking and lung cancer incidence: A two-stage age-stratified Bayesian joinpoint model

BackgroundPrevious studies have explored population-level smoking trends and the incidence of lung cancer, but none has jointly modeled them. This study modeled the relationship between smoking rate and incidence of lung cancer, by gender, in the U.S. adult population and estimated the lag time between changes in smoking trend and changes in incidence trends.MethodsThe annual total numbers of smokers, by gender, were obtained from the database of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) program of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for the years 1976 through 2018. The population-level incidence data for lung and bronchus cancers, by gender and five-year age group, were obtained for the same years from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program database of the National Cancer Institute. A Bayesian joinpoint statistical model, assuming Poisson errors, was developed to explore the relationship between smoking and lung cancer incidence in the time trend.ResultsThe model estimates and predicts the rate of change of incidence in the time trend, adjusting for expected smoking rate in the population, age, and gender. It shows that smoking trend is a strong predictor of incidence trend and predicts that rates will be roughly equal for males and females in the year 2023, then the incidence rate for females will exceed that of males. In addition, the model estimates the lag time between smoking and incidence to be 8.079 years.ConclusionsBecause there is a three-year delay in reporting smoking related data and a four-year delay for incidence data, this model provides valuable predictions of smoking rate and associated lung cancer incidence before the data are available. By recognizing differing trends by gender, the model will inform gender specific aspects of public health policy related to tobacco use and its impact on lung cancer incidence.     

红壤退化地森林恢复后土壤有机碳对土壤水库库容的影响

亚热带红壤侵蚀退化地实施生态恢复后生物生产力恢复迅速,但土壤尤其是土壤水库的功能并未获得同步恢复,导致土壤水库对于降水和地表径流的调节能力低下,区域性洪涝灾害和季节性干旱依然突出。采用野外调查和室内分析相结合的方式,研究了南方红壤侵蚀退化地典型植被恢复类型(马尾松与阔叶树复层林、木荷与马尾松混交林、阔叶混交林)0—60cm土层土壤水库各种库容差异,以及土壤总有机碳和活性有机碳密度分布特征,采用典型相关分析方法对土壤水库库容与土壤有机碳密度两组指标进行相关分析。结果表明:随着土层深度的增加,各森林恢复类型死库容呈上升趋势,兴利库容和最大有效库容呈下降趋势,防洪库容变化趋势不明显,木荷与马尾松混交林兴利库容略高。不同森林恢复类型同一土层土壤总有机碳密度均表现为马尾松与阔叶树复层林木荷与马尾松混交林阔叶混交林,而活性有机碳密度则以阔叶混交林最大。典型相关分析表明,土壤有机碳水平对土壤水库库容的增加具有显著的因果影响关系(P=0.01),其中对有机碳水平起到主导性贡献作用的是水溶性有机碳。因此,对于退化红壤地森林恢复初期,可通过适当密植和立体种植,提高林地生物量和土壤碳密度,并在马尾松等先锋树种针叶林分中补植阔叶乔灌木,以增加土壤活性有机碳含量,增大土壤水库容量,从而有利于土壤水库结构和功能以及退化生态系统的快速恢复。     

Climate driven trends in tree biomass increment show asynchronous dependence on tree-ring width and wood density variation

Tree growth is a key ecosystem function supporting climate change mitigation strategies. However climate change may induce feedbacks on radial growth and wood density, affecting the carbon sequestration capacity of forests. Using a mixed modeling technique long-term trends in radial growth, wood density and above-ground biomass, defined as the product of the annual basal area growth with the wood density, of common beech (Fagus sylvatica) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea) in the Belgian Ardennes, were determined and explained using climate drivers of change. This modeling strategy allowed us to determine if the same conclusions can be drawn when only BAI is considered, as is assumed in most carbon sequestration studies, when looking at long-term trends in carbon sequestration. The models indicate that above-ground biomass increment changes over time are more driven by changes in radial growth than by changes in wood density. Nevertheless, the assumption of constant wood density in most carbon sequestration studies is incorrect. Ignoring wood density results in an underestimation of long-term trends in above-ground biomass increment for beech, and an overestimation of above-ground biomass increment for oak. Interesting is that radial growth is mostly driven by climate variables of the current year, whereas wood density is more driven by the climate variables of the previous year. Beech radial growth and wood density is found to be negatively influenced by drought and positively by water availability. Oak radial growth and wood density is negatively affected by late frost and positively by water availability. The findings of this study suggest that radial growth in combination with wood density should be used in carbon sequestration studies as different climate driven long-term trends in radial growth and wood density are found.     

Long-term changes in wood density and radial growth of Quercus petraea Liebl. in northern France since the middle of the nineteenth century

Long-term changes in sessile oak (Quercus petraea Liebl.) growth and wood density were studied using cores collected from 99 even-aged high forest stands between 56 and 187 years old, located in northeastern and north-central France. Growth and density trends were tested by analysis of variance and covariance. Two models were applied to two samples, sample A and sample B (sample B being a sub-sample with limited cambial age and calendar date ranges). Model 1 showed a significant increase in radial growth: +35%, +87% and +66% in earlywood width, latewood width and ring width, respectively, from 1811 to 1993 for sample A. Consequently, there was a positive trend in latewood ratio (+14%). A slight decrease in wood density was found: -3.3% and -5.4% for earlywood and latewood density, respectively. Despite an increase in latewood percentage, mean ring density showed a -2.0% decrease. Model 1 applied to a biomass indicator (density2ring width) showed a 62% increase from 10.4 to 16.8 kg m^-3 between 1811 and 1993 for sample A. Results for sample B were slightly different: the increase in latewood ratio was not detected. Model 2 showed a change with time in the positive hyperbolic relationship between mean density and ring width. The results are discussed. The decrease in wood density cannot be explained by N atmospheric deposition or by long-term changes in average temperature. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ levels cannot be invoked owing to the present lack of studies. Finally, hypotheses concerning long-term changes in wood anatomical characteristics are proposed.     

Do social learning and conformist bias coevolve? Henrich and Boyd revisited

We studied the coevolution of social learning and conformist bias in a modified version of the Henrich and Boyd [1998. The evolution of conformist transmission and the emergence of between-group differences. Evol. Hum. Behav. 19, 215-241] model that nevertheless preserves its essential features. The convergent stable strategies (CSS) are identified by a numerical adaptive dynamics method and then checked for evolutionary stability. A strategy that is simultaneously a CSS and an ESS is called an attractive evolutionarily stable strategy (AESS). Our main findings are as follows. First, the AESS reliance on social learning is monotone increasing in the fixed interval between environmental changes and monotone decreasing in the quality of environmental information. Second, the AESS strength of conformist bias is monotone non-increasing in the fixed interval between environmental changes and monotone non-decreasing in the quality of environmental information. The first observation is in agreement with Henrich and Boyd (1998), but the second is in direct contradiction. In addition, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations as in Henrich and Boyd (1998), which supported our findings. We believe that the reason for the discrepancy with regard to the strength of conformist bias is that Henrich and Boyd (1998) did not allow a sufficient number of iterations for true convergence to occur. In conclusion, the conditions favoring a heavy reliance on social learning are not the same as those favoring a strong conformist bias.     

Do social learning and conformist bias coevolve? Henrich and Boyd revisited

We studied the coevolution of social learning and conformist bias in a modified version of the Henrich and Boyd [1998. The evolution of conformist transmission and the emergence of between-group differences. Evol. Hum. Behav. 19, 215–241] model that nevertheless preserves its essential features. The convergent stable strategies (CSS) are identified by a numerical adaptive dynamics method and then checked for evolutionary stability. A strategy that is simultaneously a CSS and an ESS is called an attractive evolutionarily stable strategy (AESS). Our main findings are as follows. First, the AESS reliance on social learning is monotone increasing in the fixed interval between environmental changes and monotone decreasing in the quality of environmental information. Second, the AESS strength of conformist bias is monotone non-increasing in the fixed interval between environmental changes and monotone non-decreasing in the quality of environmental information. The first observation is in agreement with Henrich and Boyd (1998), but the second is in direct contradiction. In addition, we conducted Monte Carlo simulations as in Henrich and Boyd (1998), which supported our findings. We believe that the reason for the discrepancy with regard to the strength of conformist bias is that Henrich and Boyd (1998) did not allow a sufficient number of iterations for true convergence to occur. In conclusion, the conditions favoring a heavy reliance on social learning are not the same as those favoring a strong conformist bias.     

Variation in cohort mandible size as an index of roe deer (Capredus capreolus) densities and population trends

This paper examines the effects of increasing population density on the skeletal development of roe deer as indexed by variation in the size of the mandible. We tested for density-dependence in total jaw length and minimum diastema height among cohorts in a single, intensively studied population in France. A strong relationship of average adult jaw length of both males and females with deer density in the year of birth of a given cohort was observed, and presumably reflects inadequate nutrition of juveniles at high population density. No such relationship was observed for the minimum diastema height which remained constant over the range of densities studied. This relationship was exploited to investigate population trends of roe deer in Britain. In nine populations, where equivalent data were available for between 16 and 28 separate cohorts, a consistent pattern of variation in cohort jaw size was observed, with a decrease in average total length, but not diastema height, towards the present. This trend is discussed in relation to changes in habitat structure in the coniferous forests of Britain. The utility of cohort jaw length as a management tool to index population trends of roe deer is highlighted.     

Effects of canopy position on climate-growth relationships of Qinghai spruce in the central Qilian mountains,northwestern China

Northwestern China has experienced dramatic climate change characterized by rapid warming since the 1980s with the warming trend substantially slowing after 2000. Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia Kom.), a key tree species in northwest China, has been predicted to be strongly coupled with climate change. However, how the trends in biomass growth change at different canopy positions under climate change and whether climate–growth responses vary with canopy position remain unclear. A total of 222 trees were sampled by a stand-total sampling strategy in the central Qilian Mountains. Trees were assigned to four canopy positions according to height and distance from neighbors: dominant, codominant, intermediate, and suppressed. Our results indicate that trees in dominant and codominant canopy positions dominate the decreasing trend in stand-level biomass from 1980 to 2000 and the increasing trend from 2000–2013, contributing 81.3 % and 86 %, respectively, whereas trees in the intermediate and suppressed canopy positions contributed less. This result was attributed to a more sensitive response of biomass growth in trees in dominant and codominant canopy positions to climate change. From 1980 to 2000, the stronger decreasing trend in biomass growth at dominant and codominant canopy positions is mostly accounted for by increasing temperature. A more pronounced water deficit might have restricted biomass growth more than that at the intermediate and suppressed canopy positions. However, from 2000 to 2013, drought stress was relieved and summer standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index became a leading factor, which promoted the recovery in biomass at dominant and codominant canopy positions. In a word, compared with intermediate and suppressed canopy trees, those in dominant and codominant positions are less resistant to drought, but dominant and codominant canopy position's biomass can recover more when drought stress is relieved. A more robust understanding of canopy-level growth response and resilience to climate change is crucial to fully understand forest growth dynamics under fluctuating climate conditions.     

Estimation of Coast-Wide Population Trends of Marbled Murrelets in Canada Using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model

Species at risk with secretive breeding behaviours, low densities, and wide geographic range pose a significant challenge to conservation actions because population trends are difficult to detect. Such is the case with the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus), a seabird listed as ‘Threatened’ by the Species at Risk Act in Canada largely due to the loss of its old growth forest nesting habitat. We report the first estimates of population trend of Marbled Murrelets in Canada derived from a monitoring program that uses marine radar to detect birds as they enter forest watersheds during 923 dawn surveys at 58 radar monitoring stations within the six Marbled Murrelet Conservation Regions on coastal British Columbia, Canada, 1996–2013. Temporal trends in radar counts were analyzed with a hierarchical Bayesian multivariate modeling approach that controlled for variation in tilt of the radar unit and day of year, included year-specific deviations from the overall trend (‘year effects’), and allowed for trends to be estimated at three spatial scales. A negative overall trend of -1.6%/yr (95% credibility interval: -3.2%, 0.01%) indicated moderate evidence for a coast-wide decline, although trends varied strongly among the six conservation regions. Negative annual trends were detected in East Vancouver Island (-9%/yr) and South Mainland Coast (-3%/yr) Conservation Regions. Over a quarter of the year effects were significantly different from zero, and the estimated standard deviation in common-shared year effects between sites within each region was about 50% per year. This large common-shared interannual variation in counts may have been caused by regional movements of birds related to changes in marine conditions that affect the availability of prey.