The sexually-selected sperm hypothesis: sex-biased inheritance and sexual antagonism

When females are inseminated by more than one male (polyandry) sexual selection continues after insemination in the form of sperm competition and cryptic female choice. The sexually-selected sperm hypothesis proposes that, under the risk of sperm competition, additive variation in male traits determining fertilising efficiency will select for female propensity to be polyandrous in order to increase the probability of producing sons with superior fertilising efficiency. Two factors complicate this prediction: sex-biased transmission of male fertilising efficiency traits and sexual antagonism of sex-limited traits, fostered by sex-biased inheritance. Here, we (i) review the evidence that male traits contributing towards fertilising efficiency are heritable through sex-biased mechanisms, and (ii) explore the evolutionary implications for male and female reproductive strategies caused by both sex-biased transmission and sexual antagonism of fertilising efficiency traits. Many male fertilising efficiency traits are heritable through sex-biased mechanisms and may not necessarily increase female fitness. The predictions of the sexually-selected sperm hypothesis change dramatically under these different mechanisms of inheritance of fertilising efficiency traits, and different fitness pay-offs derived by females from the expression of such traits. Both sex-biased control of fertilising efficiency and sexual antagonism may also be important in explaining the maintenance of the genetic variance and selection potential of fertilising efficiency. We propose that a useful approach to test the sexually-selected sperm hypothesis is to combine studies which identify behavioural and physiological mechanisms explaining variation in reproductive success with artificial selection experiments to infer the underlying evolutionary patterns.     

The evolution of resource specialization through frequency-dependent and frequency-independent mechanisms

Levins's fitness set approach has shaped the intuition of many evolutionary ecologists about resource specialization: if the set of possible phenotypes is convex, a generalist is favored, while either of the two specialists is predicted for concave phenotype sets. An important aspect of Levins's approach is that it explicitly excludes frequency-dependent selection. Frequency dependence emerged in a series of models that studied the degree of character displacement of two consumers coexisting on two resources. Surprisingly, the evolutionary dynamics of a single consumer type under frequency dependence has not been studied in detail. We analyze a model of one evolving consumer feeding on two resources and show that, depending on the trait considered to be subject to evolutionary change, selection is either frequency independent or frequency dependent. This difference is explained by the effects different foraging traits have on the consumer-resource interactions. If selection is frequency dependent, then the population can become dimorphic through evolutionary branching at the trait value of the generalist. Those traits with frequency-independent selection, however, do indeed follow the predictions based on Levins's fitness set approach. This dichotomy in the evolutionary dynamics of traits involved in the same foraging process was not previously recognized.     

Predicting evolutionary responses to selection on polyandry in the wild: additive genetic covariances with female extra-pair reproduction

The evolutionary forces that underlie polyandry, including extra-pair reproduction (EPR) by socially monogamous females, remain unclear. Selection on EPR and resulting evolution have rarely been explicitly estimated or predicted in wild populations, and evolutionary predictions are vulnerable to bias due to environmental covariances and correlated selection through unmeasured traits. However, evolutionary responses to (correlated) selection on any trait can be directly predicted as additive genetic covariances (cov_A) with appropriate components of relative fitness. I used comprehensive life-history, paternity and pedigree data from song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to estimate cov_A between a female''s liability to produce extra-pair offspring and two specific fitness components: relative annual reproductive success (ARS) and survival to recruitment. All three traits showed non-zero additive genetic variance. Estimates of cov_A were positive, predicting evolution towards increased EPR, but 95% credible intervals overlapped zero. There was therefore no conclusive prediction of evolutionary change in EPR due to (correlated) selection through female ARS or recruitment. Negative environmental covariance between EPR and ARS would have impeded evolutionary prediction from phenotypic selection differentials. These analyses demonstrate an explicit quantitative genetic approach to predicting evolutionary responses to components of (correlated) selection on EPR that should be unbiased by environmental covariances and unmeasured traits.     

Assortment and the analysis of natural selection on social traits

A central problem in evolutionary biology is to determine whether and how social interactions contribute to natural selection. A key method for phenotypic data is social selection analysis, in which fitness effects from social partners contribute to selection only when there is a correlation between the traits of individuals and their social partners (nonrandom phenotypic assortment). However, there are inconsistencies in the use of social selection that center around the measurement of phenotypic assortment. Here, we use data analysis and simulations to resolve these inconsistencies, showing that: (i) not all measures of assortment are suitable for social selection analysis; and (ii) the interpretation of assortment, and how to detect nonrandom assortment, will depend on the scale at which it is measured. We discuss links to kin selection theory and provide a practical guide for the social selection approach.     

SELECTION AND EVOLUTION OF CAUSALLY COVARYING TRAITS

When traits cause variation in fitness, the distribution of phenotype, weighted by fitness, necessarily changes. The degree to which traits cause fitness variation is therefore of central importance to evolutionary biology. Multivariate selection gradients are the main quantity used to describe components of trait‐fitness covariation, but they quantify the direct effects of traits on (relative) fitness, which are not necessarily the total effects of traits on fitness. Despite considerable use in evolutionary ecology, path analytic characterizations of the total effects of traits on fitness have not been formally incorporated into quantitative genetic theory. By formally defining “extended” selection gradients, which are the total effects of traits on fitness, as opposed to the existing definition of selection gradients, a more intuitive scheme for characterizing selection is obtained. Extended selection gradients are distinct quantities, differing from the standard definition of selection gradients not only in the statistical means by which they may be assessed and the assumptions required for their estimation from observational data, but also in their fundamental biological meaning. Like direct selection gradients, extended selection gradients can be combined with genetic inference of multivariate phenotypic variation to provide quantitative prediction of microevolutionary trajectories.     

Variation,selection and evolution of function-valued traits

We describe an emerging framework for understanding variation, selection and evolution of phenotypic traits that are mathematical functions. We use one specific empirical example – thermal performance curves (TPCs) for growth rates of caterpillars – to demonstrate how models for function-valued traits are natural extensions of more familiar, multivariate models for correlated, quantitative traits. We emphasize three main points. First, because function-valued traits are continuous functions, there are important constraints on their patterns of variation that are not captured by multivariate models. Phenotypic and genetic variation in function-valued traits can be quantified in terms of variance-covariance functions and their associated eigenfunctions: we illustrate how these are estimated as well as their biological interpretations for TPCs. Second, selection on a function-valued trait is itself a function, defined in terms of selection gradient functions. For TPCs, the selection gradient describes how the relationship between an organism's performance and its fitness varies as a function of its temperature. We show how the form of the selection gradient function for TPCs relates to the frequency distribution of environmental states (caterpillar temperatures) during selection. Third, we can predict evolutionary responses of function-valued traits in terms of the genetic variance-covariance and the selection gradient functions. We illustrate how non-linear evolutionary responses of TPCs may occur even when the mean phenotype and the selection gradient are themselves linear functions of temperature. Finally, we discuss some of the methodological and empirical challenges for future studies of the evolution of function-valued traits.     

INFERRING FITNESS LANDSCAPES

Since 1983, study of natural selection has relied heavily on multiple regression of fitness on the values for a set of traits via ordinary least squares (OLSs), as proposed by Lande and Arnold, to obtain an estimate of the quadratic relationship between fitness and the traits, the fitness surface. However, well‐known statistical problems with this approach can affect inferences about selection. One key concern is that measures of lifetime fitness do not conform to a normal or any other standard sampling distribution, as needed to justify the usual statistical tests. Another is that OLS may yield an estimate of the sign of the fitness function's curvature that is opposite to the truth. We here show that the recently developed aster modeling approach, which explicitly models the components of fitness as the basis for inferences about lifetime fitness, eliminates these problems. We illustrate selection analysis via aster using simulated datasets involving five fitness components expressed in each of four years. We demonstrate that aster analysis yields accurate estimates of the fitness function in cases in which OLS misleads, as well as accurate confidence regions for directional selection gradients. Further, to evaluate selection when many traits are under consideration, we recommend model selection by information criteria and frequentist model averaging.     

Evolution in response to social selection: the importance of interactive effects of traits on fitness

Social interactions have a powerful effect on the evolutionary process. Recent attempts to synthesize models of social selection with equations for indirect genetic effects (McGlothlin et al. 2010) provide a broad theoretical base from which to study selection and evolutionary response in the context of social interactions. However, this framework concludes that social selection will lead to evolution only if the traits carried by social partners are nonrandomly associated. I suggest this conclusion is incomplete, and that traits that do not covary between social partners can nevertheless lead to evolution via interactive effects on fitness. Such effects occur when there are functional interactions between traits, and as an example I use the interplay in water striders (Gerridae) between grasping appendages carried by males and spines by females. Functional interactive effects between traits can be incorporated into both the equations for social selection and the general model of social evolution proposed by McGlothlin et al. These expanded equations would accommodate adaptive coevolution in social interactions, integrate the quantitative genetic approach to social evolution with game theoretical approaches, and stimulate some new questions about the process of social evolution.     

The danger of applying the breeder's equation in observational studies of natural populations

The breeder's equation, which predicts evolutionary change when a phenotypic covariance exists between a heritable trait and fitness, has provided a key conceptual framework for studies of adaptive microevolution in nature. However, its application requires strong assumptions to be made about the causation of fitness variation. In its univariate form, the breeder's equation assumes that the trait of interest is not correlated with other traits having causal effects on fitness. In its multivariate form, the validity of predicted change rests on the assumption that all such correlated traits have been measured and incorporated into the analysis. Here, we (i) highlight why these assumptions are likely to be seriously violated in studies of natural, rather than artificial, selection and (ii) advocate wider use of the Robertson–Price identity as a more robust, and less assumption‐laden, alternative to the breeder's equation for applications in evolutionary ecology.     

Evolutionary potential of morphological traits across different life‐history stages

Despite accumulating examples of selection acting on heritable traits in the wild, predicted evolutionary responses are often different from observed phenotypic trends. Various explanations have been suggested for these mismatches. These include within‐individual changes across lifespan that can create important variation in genetic architecture of traits and selection acting on them, but also potential problems with the methodological approach used to predict evolutionary responses of traits. Here, we used an 8‐year data set on tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) to first assess the effects of differences among three nestling life‐history stages on the genetic (co)variances of two morphological traits (body mass and primary feather length) and the selection acting on them over three generations. We then estimated the evolutionary potential of these traits by predicting their evolutionary responses using the breeder's equation and the secondary theorem of selection approaches. Our results showed variation in strength and direction of selection and slight changes in trait variance across ages. Predicted evolutionary responses differed importantly between both approaches for half of the trait–age combinations we studied, suggesting the presence of environmentally induced correlations between focal traits and fitness possibly biasing breeder's equation predictions. Our results emphasize that predictions of evolutionary potential for morphological traits are likely to be highly variable, both in strength and direction, depending on the life stage and method used, thus mitigating our capacity to predict adaptation and persistence of wild populations.     

ESTIMATING AND VISUALIZING FITNESS SURFACES USING MARK–RECAPTURE DATA

Understanding how selection operates on a set of phenotypic traits is central to evolutionary biology. Often, it requires estimating survival (or other fitness‐related life‐history traits) which can be difficult to obtain for natural populations because individuals cannot be exhaustively followed. To cope with this issue of imperfect detection, we advocate the use of mark‐recapture data and we provide a general framework for both the estimation of linear and nonlinear selection gradients and the visualization of fitness surfaces. To quantify the strength of selection, the standard second‐order polynomial regression method is integrated in mark‐recapture models. To visualize the form of selection, we use splines to display selection acting on multivariate phenotypes in the most flexible way. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters, assessing traits relevance and calculating the optimal amount of smoothing. We illustrate our approach using data from a wild population of Common blackbirds (Turdus merula) to investigate survival in relation to morphological traits, and provide evidence for correlational selection using the new methodology. Overall, the framework we propose will help in exploring the full potential of mark‐recapture data to study natural selection.     

Genetic analysis of life-history constraint and evolution in a wild ungulate population

Trade-offs among life-history traits are central to evolutionary theory. In quantitative genetic terms, trade-offs may be manifested as negative genetic covariances relative to the direction of selection on phenotypic traits. Although the expression and selection of ecologically important phenotypic variation are fundamentally multivariate phenomena, the in situ quantification of genetic covariances is challenging. Even for life-history traits, where well-developed theory exists with which to relate phenotypic variation to fitness variation, little evidence exists from in situ studies that negative genetic covariances are an important aspect of the genetic architecture of life-history traits. In fact, the majority of reported estimates of genetic covariances among life-history traits are positive. Here we apply theory of the genetics and selection of life histories in organisms with complex life cycles to provide a framework for quantifying the contribution of multivariate genetically based relationships among traits to evolutionary constraint. We use a Bayesian framework to link pedigree-based inference of the genetic basis of variation in life-history traits to evolutionary demography theory regarding how life histories are selected. Our results suggest that genetic covariances may be acting to constrain the evolution of female life-history traits in a wild population of red deer Cervus elaphus: genetic covariances are estimated to reduce the rate of adaptation by about 40%, relative to predicted evolutionary change in the absence of genetic covariances. Furthermore, multivariate phenotypic (rather than genetic) relationships among female life-history traits do not reveal this constraint.     

INTERACTING PHENOTYPES AND THE EVOLUTIONARY PROCESS. III. SOCIAL EVOLUTION

Interactions among conspecifics influence social evolution through two distinct but intimately related paths. First, they provide the opportunity for indirect genetic effects (IGEs), where genes expressed in one individual influence the expression of traits in others. Second, interactions can generate social selection when traits expressed in one individual influence the fitness of others. Here, we present a quantitative genetic model of multivariate trait evolution that integrates the effects of both IGEs and social selection, which have previously been modeled independently. We show that social selection affects evolutionary change whenever the breeding value of one individual covaries with the phenotype of its social partners. This covariance can be created by both relatedness and IGEs, which are shown to have parallel roles in determining evolutionary response. We show that social selection is central to the estimation of inclusive fitness and derive a version of Hamilton's rule showing the symmetrical effects of relatedness and IGEs on the evolution of altruism. We illustrate the utility of our approach using altruism, greenbeards, aggression, and weapons as examples. Our model provides a general predictive equation for the evolution of social phenotypes that encompasses specific cases such as kin selection and reciprocity. The parameters can be measured empirically, and we emphasize the importance of considering both IGEs and social selection, in addition to relatedness, when testing hypotheses about social evolution.     

Evolutionary dynamics of Candida albicans during in vitro evolution

While mechanisms of resistance to major antifungal agents have been characterized in Candida albicans, little is known about the evolutionary trajectories during the emergence of drug resistance. Here, we examined the evolutionary dynamics of C. albicans that evolved in vitro in the presence or absence of fluconazole using the visualizing evolution in real-time (VERT) method, a novel experimental approach that facilitates the systematic isolation of adaptive mutants that arise in the population. We found an increase in the frequency of adaptive events in the presence of fluconazole compared to the no-drug controls. Analysis of the evolutionary dynamics revealed that mutations that led to increased drug resistance appeared frequently and that mutants with increased levels of resistance arose in independent lineages. Interestingly, most adaptive mutants with increased fitness in the presence of the drug did not exhibit a significant fitness decrease in the absence of the drug, supporting the idea that rapid resistance can arise from mutations in strains maintained in the population prior to exposure to the drug.     

MATHEMATICS OF KIN‐ AND GROUP‐SELECTION: FORMALLY EQUIVALENT?

Evolutionary game theory is a general mathematical framework that describes the evolution of social traits. This framework forms the basis of many multilevel selection models and is also frequently used to model evolutionary dynamics on networks. Kin selection, which was initially restricted to describe social interactions between relatives, has also led to a broader mathematical approach, inclusive fitness, that can not only describe social evolution among relatives, but also in group structured populations or on social networks. It turns out that the underlying mathematics of game theory is fundamentally different from the approach of inclusive fitness. Thus, both approaches—evolutionary game theory and inclusive fitness—can be helpful to understand the evolution of social traits in group structured or spatially extended populations.     

How to quantify (the response to) sexual selection on traits

Natural selection operates via fitness components like mating success, fecundity, and longevity, which can be understood as intermediaries in the causal process linking traits to fitness. In particular, sexual selection occurs when traits influence mating or fertilization success, which, in turn, influences fitness. We show how to quantify both these steps in a single path analysis, leading to better estimates of the strength of sexual selection. Our model controls for confounding variables, such as body size or condition, when estimating the relationship between mating and reproductive success. Correspondingly, we define the Bateman gradient and the Jones index using partial rather than simple regressions, which better captures how they are commonly interpreted. The model can be applied both to purely phenotypic data and to quantitative genetic parameters estimated using information on relatedness. The phenotypic approach breaks down selection differentials into a sexually selected and a “remainder” component. The quantitative genetic approach decomposes the estimated evolutionary response to selection analogously. We apply our method to analyze sexual selection in male dusky pipefish, Syngnathus floridae, and in two simulated datasets. We highlight conceptual and statistical limitations of previous path‐based approaches, which can lead to substantial misestimation of sexual selection.     

Stabilizing selection and adaptive evolution in a combination of two traits in an arctic ungulate

Stabilizing selection is thought to be common in wild populations and act as one of the main evolutionary mechanisms, which constrain phenotypic variation. When multiple traits interact to create a combined phenotype, correlational selection may be an important process driving adaptive evolution. Here, we report on phenotypic selection and evolutionary changes in two natal traits in a semidomestic population of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) in northern Finland. The population has been closely monitored since 1969, and detailed data have been collected on individuals since they were born. Over the length of the study period (1969–2015), we found directional and stabilizing selection toward a combination of earlier birth date and heavier birth mass with an intermediate optimum along the major axis of the selection surface. In addition, we demonstrate significant changes in mean traits toward earlier birth date and heavier birth mass, with corresponding genetic changes in breeding values during the study period. Our results demonstrate evolutionary changes in a combination of two traits, which agree closely with estimated patterns of phenotypic selection. Knowledge of the selective surface for combinations of genetically correlated traits are vital to predict how population mean phenotypes and fitness are affected when environments change.     

Social Selection and Indirect Genetic Effects in Structured populations

Social selection and indirect genetic effects (IGEs) are established concepts in both behavioural ecology and evolutionary genetics. While IGEs describe effects of an individual’s genotype on phenotypes of social partners (and may thus affect their fitness indirectly), the concept of social selection assumes that a given phenotype in one individual affects the fitness of other individuals directly. Although different frameworks, both have been used to investigate the evolution of social traits, such as cooperative behaviour. Despite their similarities (both concepts consider interactions among individuals), they differ in the type of interaction. It remains unclear whether the two concepts make the same predictions about evolutionary trajectories or not. To address this question, we investigate four possible scenarios of social interactions and compare the effects of IGEs and social selection for trait evolution in a multi-trait multi-member model. We show that the two mechanisms can yield similar evolutionary outcomes and that both can create selection pressure at the group level. However, the effect of IGEs can be stronger due to the possibility of feedback loops. Finally, we demonstrate that IGEs, but not social selection gradients, may lead to differences in the direction of evolutionary response between genotypes and phenotypes.     

The maintenance of heritable variation through social competition

The paradoxical persistence of heritable variation for fitness-related traits is an evolutionary conundrum that remains a preeminent problem in evolutionary biology. Here we describe a simple mechanism in which social competition results in the evolutionary maintenance of heritable variation for fitness related traits. We demonstrate this mechanism using a genetic model with two primary assumptions: the expression of a trait depends upon success in social competition for limited resources; and competitive success of a genotype depends on the genotypes that it competes against. We find that such social competition generates heritable (additive) genetic variation for "competition-dependent" traits. This heritable variation is not eroded by continuous directional selection because, rather than leading to fixation of favored alleles, selection leads instead to allele frequency cycling due to the concerted coevolution of the social environment with the effects of alleles. Our results provide a mechanism for the maintenance of heritable variation in natural populations and suggest an area for research into the importance of competition in the genetic architecture of fitness related traits.