ARIMA与SVM组合模型在害虫预测中的应用

害虫发生是一种复杂、 动态时间序列数据, 单一预测模型都是基于线性或非线性数据, 不能同时捕捉害虫发生的线性和非线性规律, 很难达到理想的预测精度。本研究首先采用差分自回归移动平均模型对昆虫发生时间序列进行线性建模, 然后采用支持向量机对非线性部分进行建模, 最后得到两种模型的组合预测结果。将组合模型应用到松毛虫Dendrolimus punctatus发生面积的预测, 实验结果表明组合模型的预测精度明显优于单一模型, 发挥了两种模型各自的优势。组合模型是一种切实可行的害虫预测预报方法。     

肾大部切除大鼠肾衰模型制备方法

目的探讨一次手术建立大鼠肾大部切除肾衰模型的可行性。方法取雄性SD大鼠40只随机平均分为两组构建大鼠肾大部切除肾衰模型,A组采用传统的两次手术造模,B组采用改良的一次手术的方法;比较两组模型的死亡率、成功率。结果两组间各指标无统计学差异（P〉0.05）。结论一次手术建立大鼠肾大部切除肾衰模型是简便易行,是值得推荐的一种肾大部切除术式。     

壳寡糖可降低阿尔茨海默症模型细胞内活性氧水平

用荧光显微成像测量了两种阿尔茨海默症（Alzheimer's disease,AD）模型细胞即swe型N2a细胞和Δ9/swe型N2a细胞中活性氧的水平。培养液中适当浓度的壳寡糖降低了两种模型细胞中的活性氧水平,这一抑制作用随壳寡糖浓度的变化而变化。壳寡糖对两种模型细胞作用存在差别,提示壳寡糖抑制AD模型细胞内活性氧可能有不同的途径。     

H广义线性模型中的参数估计的比较

本文研究H广义线性模型中未知参数的两种估计方法,一种是边际似然函数法,另一种是Lee和Nelder提出来的L-N法．对于一类具有两个随机效应的典型的Poisson-Gamma类模型,在一些正则性条件之下,我们已经证明了其中固定效应卢的L-N估计的强相合性及渐近正态性,并得到了其收敛于真值的速度．针对这类模型,本文进一步给出了其边际似然函数的解析表达式,并且通过Monte Carlo模拟,对模型中固定效应β的边际似然估计和L—N估计进行了比较,模拟表明L—N估计比边际似然估计在拟Poisson-Gamma模型中有着更加优良的表现,具有更高的精度。     

双球形模型膜系统及其在膜通道研究中的应用

介绍了一种双球形人工模型膜系统.提供了研究跨两个双层膜之间细胞连接重组和通道活性的机会.通常研究通道性质和膜重组所使用的脂质体和板形膜仅仅是一个细胞的双层膜模型,而此系统则为两个相邻细胞间的联接模型.这里报告了该系统的制备和在胞间通道研究中的应用.     

一种新的实验性急性胰腺炎动物模型

制造一种较为理想的急性胰腺炎动物模型,在医学基础理论及临床研究中都是非常需要的。选用大鼠做模型较用其它动物更为经济、方便。以前的研究者制作大鼠急性胰腺炎模型,方法大致有两种:一种为胰导管     

乙型、丙型流感病毒的长记忆ARFIMA模型

用时间序列模型来分析乙型、丙型这两种流感病毒,对乙流、丙流病毒DNA序列提供了一种新的时间序列模型,即CGR弧度序列。利用CGR坐标将乙流、丙流病毒DNA序列转换成CGR弧度序列,且引入长记忆ARFIMA模型去拟合这两类序列。发现随机找来的10条乙流序列,10条丙流序列都具有长相关性且拟合很好,并且还发现这两种病毒序列可以尝试用不同的ARFIMA模型ARFIMA(0,d,4)模型,ARFIMA(1,d,1)模型去识别。     

一种新的DNA复制和转录模型

DNA复制和转录有两种模型,一种是传统的滑动模型,复制和转录发生时参与反应的蛋白质沿DNA模板滑动.在另一种新提出的工厂模型中,固定在核结构上的蛋白质拉动模板来完成DNA的复制和转录.来自生物化学、生物物理学和细胞生物学等的实验证据表明,新的工厂模型是生物活体细胞内真实的复制和转录模式.     

用网络方法识别生物序列motif

生物序列motif的识别是后基因组时代的一个核心问题。本文首先回顾了识别motif的几种主要算法,然后根据motif的重要性和随机性介绍了利用网络识别motif的两种具有代表性的方法：一种是建立一个随机网络混合模型,利用EM算法识别其中随机的网络motif;另一种用修正的参数流算法过滤出其中的最大密度予图,即为生物序列motif,并指出这两种方法的优劣,最后还对今后研究方向给出了讨论。     

选择方向强化学习的神经网络模型

提出了神经网络模型的一种选择方向强化学习规则,定义并导出了新模型与Hopfield模型两种不同的筛选曲线,由此表明新模型对相关图样的分辨力优于Hopfield模型。在微机上模拟了由100个神经元构成的网络,结果显示新模型具有重复记忆这一神经生理学特点。定义并分行了记忆强度因子,模拟结果表明记忆强度因子愈大的记忆态,联想性能愈好,学习周期愈短。     

Computation of diagnostic data from coronary sinus pressure: a comparison between two possible models

We have evaluated two mathematical models to describe the increase in coronary sinus pressure (CSP) following pressure controlled intermittent coronary sinus occlusion (PICSO). The models are evaluated and compared on the basis of human and canine data. Both models were fitted by non-linear least squares algorithms. Next, derived quantities, such as plateau, rise-time and mean integral of the coronary sinus pressure were calculated from the model parameters. Corresponding quantities for the two models were compared with regard to mean values, rate of successful calculation and specific features characterizing the human or canine case. One model was found to be superior for investigational purposes. The other model was found to be more stable in critical situations and is therefore suggested for usage in closed loop regulation of PICSO. Physiologically, the differences in mean values of the derived quantities between the two models were found to be negligible. The formal statistical significance of the differences is but a consequence of the large number of PICSO cycles analysed.     

基于Penman-Monteith模型的两个蒸散模型在夏玉米农田的参数修正及性能评价

利用涡度相关系统和小气象系统对2013—2015年夏玉米生长季的蒸散量和气象数据进行实时观测,基于观测数据对以Penman-Monteith模型为基础的FAO-PM模型和KP-PM模型进行分析:首先利用2013和2014年数据对两个模型中的关键参数进行校正,其次利用两个模型对2015年夏玉米农田的日蒸散量进行计算,并与测量值对比,说明两个模型在夏玉米农田的适用性;最后采用分阶段法对KP-PM模型中的经验系数进行修正.结果表明: FAO-PM模型对2015年夏玉米农田日蒸散量的计算值更加接近测量值;利用分阶段法对KP-PM模型进行修正后,模型对日蒸散量的计算效果有了很大提高,且计算值比FAO-PM模型更接近测量值.模型中关键系数与气象条件之间有很大关系,因此利用模型进行蒸散预测时,必须先对模型进行参数校正.该研究可为其他研究人员利用模型估算蒸散量提供方法上的参考.     

动态物候模型发展及其在全球变化研究中的应用

物候模型可以通过环境因子预测植物物候期,是植物物候学一个重要内容。其中,试图反映生物过程的动态物候模型往往预测比较准确,因此这类物候模型有助于探讨植物在全球变化中的响应。本文把动态物候模型分为3大类,温度物候模型、冷激物候模型和其它物候模型,阐述了每个模型的基本原理和假设,重点论述了常见的温度物候模型.提出物候模型的真实性和广泛性还需要进一步提高,并介绍了温度物候模型在全球变化中运用的几个代表案例,指出目前的物候模型研究刚刚起步,还有许多方面需要进一步深入和开拓。     

How the All-Atom Simulation and the Ising-Based Theory Reconcilewith Each Other on the Helix-Coil Transition

In this report, we addressed a somewhat basic question about how the twoextreme models, the all-atom model and the Ising-based model, can beconsistent with each other regarding the polypeptide helix-coil transition.Comparisons of several physical properties were made between the resultsof the all-atom simulations and those of the Ising-based theories. Fromthe equilibrium point of view, the two models were found to exhibit aqualitatively similar trend, which is significant considering the extremedifference in precision between the two models. On the other hand, fromthe kinetic viewpoint, there appeared a difference in relaxation behaviorbetween the two models; i.e., so-called stretched exponential relaxationwas observed in the all-atom simulation whereas the kinetic Ising modelshowed simple exponential relaxation. A plausible source of the observeddifference is briefly discussed.     

A statistical model of laboratory death rate measurements for airborne bacteria

Summary From 270 published laboratory airborne death rate measurements, two regression models relating the death rate constant for 15 bacterial species to aerosol age in the dark, Gram reaction, temperature, and an evaporation factor which is a function of RH and temperature were obtained. The independent variables accounted for 94% of the variation in the data for each of the two models. In both models the regression shows an increased survival rate with aerosol age accounting for approximately 90% of the total variation in the data. The remainder of the total variation was explained by temperature and RH (in interaction with the Gram reaction) in one model and by the evaporation function (in interaction with the Gram reaction) in the order model. Death rate data for gaseous atmospheric contamination, and light experiments were too few for building a regression model. In addition, these points were not well fit by the model indicating further research is needed to prepare realistic prediction models for airborne bacterial survival.     

Cadmium adsorption by an organic soil: a comparison of some humic – metal complexation models

Abstract

The retention of Cd by an organic soil was investigated as a function of pH and ionic strength. The adsorption of Cd at pH values from 2 to 11 at two ionic strengths (0.053 M and 0.017 M LiNO₃) were found to be a function of both pH and ionic strength. Four Cd-humic complexation models were evaluated in order to test the applicability of these models to fit data from batch adsorption experiments. The models varied greatly in their complexity and implicit assumptions. Three were discrete functional group models – a simple diprotic acid model, a two diprotic acid model and the Windermere Humic Aqueous Acid (WHAM) model, and a continuous functional group model - the non-ideal competitive adsorption (NICA) model. The concentration of proton binding sites in the soil was found to be 4.51 mol kg^-1. The NICA and WHAM models were more successful than either a simple diprotic acid model or a two diprotic acid model at modeling Cd complexation by the organic soil, although both underestimated adsorption at very high pH values.     

Long-term demographic balance in the Broadstone stream insect community

1. Population models based on Lotka–Volterra-type differential equations with logistic prey were made for a simple stream community including two stonefly prey Leuctra nigra Olivier and Nemurella pictetii Klàpalek, and two predators, the caddisfly Plectrocnemia conspersa (Curtis) and the alderfly Sialis fuliginosa Pictet. In order to assess the importance of predation in this system, we constructed both an explicit four-species model and a simplified model with two functional groups which was more amenable to analytical treatment.
2. The models were parameterized using new data on adult emergence and recruitment combined with previously published data on larval densities and prey uptake. The models were falsified if parameterizations led either to negative prey carrying capacities or to unstable dynamics.
3. Both the functional group and four-species models predict asymptotically stable interactions, with feasible carrying capacities. The models are consistent in predicting that the observed prey are in excess of 70% of their carrying capacities. The four-species model indicates that predation impact is not evenly shared between the two prey, with L. nigra being depressed further from its carrying capacity than N. pictetii .
4. Sensitivity analysis shows that the results of the full four-species model remain very robust to realistic levels of stochastic variation in the input data.
5. The four-species model is used to predict the outcome of an ongoing large-scale field experiment involving the transfer of all S. fuliginosa eggs from one stretch of the stream to another. Although the equilibrial prey populations are barely affected by the manipulation, the model predicts marked transient prey-release and prey-depression of L. nigra in the predator addition and removal areas, respectively.     

Volume Estimates by Imaging Methods: Model Comparisons with Visible Woman as the Reference

Objective: To compare the accuracy of four volume estimation models to actual tissue and organ volumes measured in the visible woman. Methods: Actual volumes were calculated from 1‐mm‐thick visible woman images that were segmented for five major components including subcutaneous and visceral adipose tissue across the 1730 available slices. Four available models resolved to two equations: truncated cone/truncated pyramid vs. two‐column/parallel trapezium. Between‐slice interval and initial slice were systematically varied when deriving component volumes using the two equations in four regions. Results: For each compartment and each between‐slice interval, the means of the two‐column model were always the same as the corresponding reference volumes, whereas those of the truncated cone model were smaller than the reference volumes. Similarly, the coefficient variation for the two‐column model was always smaller than for the truncated cone model. Discussion: The equation based on the parallel trapezium and the two‐column models is more accurate in estimating tissue volumes than the corresponding equation for truncated pyramid and truncated cone models. This finding has important implications for the volume calculations of imaging‐based body compartments such as adipose tissue.     

地表水热通量研究进展

介绍了当前国内外地表水热通景观测研究的进展及3种不同类型的土壤-植被-大气传输模型（SVAT）：单层模型、双层模型和多层模型。遥感手段常用于监测大面积地表水热通量。基于地表能量平衡方程,现已建立了许多遥感模型以估算水热通量（如简化模型、单层模型、附加阻抗模型、作物缺水指数模型和二源阻抗模型等）,并对这些模型复杂程度及应用范围进行了分析。