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Habitat destruction, often caused by anthropogenic disturbance, can lead to the extinction of species at an unprecedented rate. It is important, therefore, to consider habitat destruction when assessing population viability. Another factor often ignored in population viability analysis, is the Allee effect that adds to the risk of populations already on the verge of extinction. Understanding the Allee effect on species dynamics and response to habitat destruction has intrinsic value in conservation prioritization. Here, the Allee effect was considered in a multi-species hierarchical competition model. Results showed that species persistence declines dramatically due to the Allee effect, and certain species become more susceptible to habitat destruction than others. Two extinction orders emerged under habitat destruction: either the best competitor becomes extinct first or the best colonizer first. The extinction debt and order, as well as the time lag between habitat destruction and species extinction, were found to be determined by species abundance and the intensity of the Allee effect. 相似文献
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Ovaskainen O 《Mathematical biosciences》2003,181(2):165-176
According to metapopulation theory, the capacity of a habitat patch network to support the persistence of a species is measured by the metapopulation capacity of the patch network. Mathematically, metapopulation capacity is given by the leading eigenvalue lambda(M) of an appropriately constructed non-negative n x n matrix M, where n is the number of habitat patches. Both habitat destruction (in the sense of destruction of entire patches) and habitat deterioration (in the sense of partial destruction of patches) lower the metapopulation capacity of the patch network. The effect of gradual habitat deterioration is given by the derivative of lambda(M) with respect to patch attributes and may be straightforwardly evaluated by sensitivity analysis. In contrast, destruction of entire patches leads to a rank modification of matrix M, the effect of which on lambda(M) may be derived from eigenvector-eigenvalue relations. Eigenvector-eigenvalue relations have previously been analyzed only for symmetric matrices, which restricts their use in biological applications. In this paper I generalize some of the previous results by deriving eigenvector-eigenvalue relations for general non-symmetric matrices. In addition to the exact eigenvector-eigenvalue relations, I also derive eigenvalue perturbation formulae for rank-one modifications. These results lead to simple and intuitive approximation formulae, which may be used e.g. to assess the contribution of particular habitat patches to the metapopulation capacity of the landscape. The mathematical results presented are not restricted to the metapopulation context, but they should find a number of useful applications in biology, engineering and other applied sciences, where the removal (or addition) of matrix rows and columns often corresponds in a natural manner to decreasing (or increasing) the degrees of freedom of the focal system. 相似文献
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1. The effects of habitat shape, connectivity and the metapopulation processes of persistence and extinction are explored in a multispecies resource-consumer interaction. 2. The spatial dynamics of the indirect interaction between two prey species (Callosobruchus chinensis, Callosobruchus maculatus) and a predator (Anisopteromalus calandrae) are investigated and we show how the persistence time of this interaction is altered in different habitat configurations by the presence of an apparent competitor. 3. Habitat structure has differential effects on the dynamics of the resource-consumer interaction. Across all habitat types, the pairwise interaction between C. chinensis and A. calandrae is highly prone to extinction, while the interaction between C. maculatus and A. calandrae shows sustained long-term fluctuations. Contrary to expectations from theory, habitat shape has no significant effect on persistence time of the full, three-species resource-consumer assemblage. 4. A stochastic metapopulation model for a range of habitat configurations, incorporating different forms of regulatory processes, highlights that it is the spatially explicit population dynamics rather than the shape of the metapopulation that is the principal determinant of interaction persistence time. 相似文献
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Philip L. Munday 《Global Change Biology》2004,10(10):1642-1647
Coral reefs worldwide are being degraded because of global warming (coral bleaching) and coastal development (sedimentation and eutrophication). Predicting the risk of species extinctions from this type of habitat degradation is one of the most challenging and urgent tasks facing ecologists. Habitat specialists are thought to be more prone to extinction than generalists; however, specialists may be more susceptible to extinction because (1) they are specialists per se, (2) they are less abundant than generalists, or (3) both. Here, I show that declines in coral abundance lead to corresponding declines in the abundance of coral‐dwelling fishes, but with proportionally greater losses to specialists than generalists. In addition, specialists have smaller initial population sizes than generalists. Consequently, specialists face a dual risk of extinction because their already small populations decline more rapidly than those of generalists. Corresponding with this increased extinction risk, I describe the local extinction of one specialist species and the near‐global extinction of another species. I conclude that habitat specialists will be the first species lost from coral reefs because their small populations suffer the most from human‐induced disturbances. 相似文献
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We investigate a mutualistic metacommunity where the strength of the mutualistic interaction between species is measured by the extent to which the presence of one species on a patch either reduces the extinction rate of the others present on the same patch or increases their ability to colonize other patches. In both cases, a strong enough mutualism enables all species to persist at habitat densities where they would all be extinct in the absence of the interaction. However, a mutualistic interaction that enhances colonization enables the species to persist at lower habitat density than one that suppresses extinction. All species abruptly go extinct (catastrophe) when the habitat density is decreased infinitesimally below a critical value. A comparison of the mean field or spatially implicit case with unrestricted dispersal and colonization to all patches in the system with a spatially explicit case where dispersal is restricted to the immediate neighbours of the original patch leads to the intriguing conclusion that restricted dispersal can be favourable for species that have a beneficial effect on each other when habitat conditions are adverse. When the mutualistic interaction is strong enough, the extinction threshold or critical amount of habitat required for the persistence of all species is lower when the dispersal is locally restricted than when unrestricted ! The persistence advantage for all species created by the mutualistic interaction increases substantially with the number of species in the metacommunity, as does the advantage for restricted dispersal over global dispersal. 相似文献
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Habitat fragmentation and population extinction of birds 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
DANIEL SIMBERLOFF 《Ibis》1995,137(S1):S105-S111
It has not been established that a major cause of extinction in birds or any other taxa is failure of metapopulation dynamics: the collapse of a network of ephemeral but discrete populations as movement between them becomes increasingly infrequent. The few data on who goes where and who mates with whom suggest that most species are structured as either a single large population or a small set of source populations and a larger set of sinks. The extinction of the latter is irrelevant to the persistence of the species. However, regional decline of a species in the face of habitat destruction and fragmentation can mimic a failure of metapopulation dynamics, because distinct aggregations of individuals will disappear much as they would if populations in an interacting network were eliminated one by one. Any species with highly restricted range is at great risk of extinction from spatially localized forces, such as cyclones or deforestation. Restricted range rather than inherent weakness is the main reason that so many island species have gone extinct or are endangered. Species with small populations in contact with much larger heterospecific ones with which they are interfertile are threatened with extinction by hybridization. Finally, the disappearance of a species from a site may be due to subtle habitat change, even if this observation seems superficially consistent with some general population theory, such as the dynamic equilibrium theory of island biogeography. Current theory is an inadequate substitute for intensive field studies as a means to address the conservation problems of individual species. 相似文献
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The importance of considering spatially-correlated extinction in metapopulation viability analyses was investigated using a model of the population dynamics of Gymnobelideus leadbeateri McCoy (Leadbeater's Possum). Fire caused local extinction of G. leadbeateri and induced changes in the suitability of the habitat over a period of decades and centuries. Spatially-correlated fires, in which the correlation between the incidence of fire declines with distance, and uniformly-correlated fires were simulated. The predicted risk of metapopulation extinction increased: (i) as the variance in the number of fires each year increased, (ii) as the mean fire interval decreased, and (iii) as the mean dispersal distance decreased. Incorporating spatial correlation in the incidence of fires between patches had little effect on the results, provided the variance in the number of fires per year remained the same and fires modified habitat quality. The predicted risk of metapopulation extinction was greater for spatially-correlated fires than for uniformly-correlated fires when fires only caused local extinction but did not change habitat suitability. Incorporating spatial correlation in the incidence of fire within patches, which allowed partial burning of patches, reduced the predicted risk of extinction. This effect was only slight when patches were smaller than about 50 ha. The results of our simulations demonstrate the importance of considering correlations in disturbance regimes in metapopulation models, especially if these models are used to assist the design of nature reserves. 相似文献
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Habitat fragmentation is a potentially critical factor in determining population persistence. In this paper, we explore the effect of fragmentation when the fragmentation follows a fractal pattern. The habitat is divided into patches, each of which is suitable or unsuitable. Suitable patches are either occupied or unoccupied, and change state depending on rates of colonization and local extinction. We compare the behaviour of two models: a spatially implicit patch-occupancy (PO) model and a spatially explicit cellular automaton (CA) model. The PO model has two fixed points: extinction, and a stable equilibrium with a fixed proportion of occupied patches. Global extinction results when habitat destruction reduces the proportion of suitable patches below a critical threshold. The PO model successfully recreates the extinction patterns found in other models. We translated the PO model into a stochastic cellular automaton. Fractal arrangements of suitable and unsuitable patches were used to simulate habitat fragmentation. We found that: (i) a population on a fractal landscape can tolerate more habitat destruction than predicted by the patch-occupancy model, and (ii) the extinction threshold decreases as the fractal dimension of the landscape decreases. These effects cannot be seen in spatially implicit models. Landscape struc-ture plays a vital role in mediating the effects of habitat fragmentation on persistence. 相似文献
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Effects of habitat destruction and resource supplementation in a predator-prey metapopulation model 总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9
We developed a mean field, metapopulation model to study the consequences of habitat destruction on a predator-prey interaction. The model complements and extends earlier work published by Bascompte and Solé (1998, J. theor. Biol.195, 383-393) in that it also permits use of alternative prey (i.e., resource supplementation) by predators. The current model is stable whenever coexistence occurs, whereas the earlier model is not stable over the entire domain of coexistence. More importantly, the current model permits an assessment of the effect of a generalist predator on the trophic interaction. Habitat destruction negatively affects the equilibrium fraction of patches occupied by predators, but the effect is most pronounced for specialists. The effect of habitat destruction on prey coexisting with predators is dependent on the ratio of extinction risk due to predation and prey colonization rate. When this ratio is less than unity, equilibrial prey occupancy of patches declines as habitat destruction increases. When the ratio exceeds one, equilibrial prey occupancy increases even as habitat destruction increases; i.e., prey "escape" from predation is facilitated by habitat loss. Resource supplementation reduces the threshold colonization rate of predators necessary for their regional persistence, and the benefit derived from resource supplementation increases in a nonlinear fashion as habitat destruction increases. We also compared the analytical results to those from a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model. The simulation model was a discrete time analog of our analytical model, with one exception. Colonization was restricted locally in the simulation, whereas colonization was a global process in the analytical model. After correcting for differences between nominal and effective colonization rates, most of the main conclusions of the two types of models were similar. Some important differences did emerge, however, and we discuss these in relation to the need to develop fully spatially explicit analytical models. Finally, we comment on the implications of our results for community structure and for the conservation of prey species interacting with generalist predators. 相似文献
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We combine ecological and economic dynamics to study the management of a natural resource that supports both ecosystem and
human needs. Shrinking the resource base introduces a threat of occurrence of catastrophic ecological events, such as sudden
ecosystem collapse. The occurrence conditions involve uncertainty of various types, and the distinction among these types
is important for optimal resource management. When uncertainty is due to our ignorance of some aspects of the underlying ecology,
the isolated equilibrium states characterizing optimal exploitation for many renewable resource problems become equilibrium
intervals. Genuinely stochastic events shift the optimal equilibrium states, but maintain the structure of isolated equilibria. 相似文献
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1. In spatially structured communities, habitat destruction can have two effects: first, a main effect that occurs because of the loss of habitat area within a larger region, and a secondary effect due to changes in the spatial arrangement of local communities. Changes to the spatial arrangement can, in turn, affect the migration and extinction rates within local communities. 2. Our study involved the experimental destruction of entire local communities within larger regions in natural marine microcosms. Large and small arrays of dead pen shells were created in a shallow bay in north Florida, and the colonization by both encrusting and motile species on this empty substrate were followed through time. After most species had become established, half of the large arrays were perturbed to create small arrays by removal of half the shells, simulating habitat destruction. 3. After 48 days of further community development, comparisons of the large arrays, reduced arrays and original small arrays suggested that the mechanisms by which habitat destruction affects diversity could depend upon the size of the region affected and the natural history of the species being studied. 4. Habitat destruction reduced the diversity of motile species to a level lower than that found in the undisturbed small arrays, suggesting that the species that assembled in the original large metacommunities negatively influenced the species that occurred ultimately in the converted small arrays. 5. With sessile species, habitat destruction created richness levels that were intermediate to those of small and large arrays. The initial predestruction richness appears to have had a positive effect; because sessile species cannot disperse as adults, they may not respond to significant shifts in metacommunity size later in succession. Initial metacommunity size may be important for allowing individuals to select appropriate habitats before they settle. 相似文献
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The metapopulation framework considers that the spatiotemporal distribution of organisms results from a balance between the colonization and extinction of populations in a suitable and discrete habitat network. Recent spatially realistic metapopulation models have allowed patch dynamics to be investigated in natural populations but such models have rarely been applied to plants. Using a simple urban fragmented population system in which favourable habitat can be easily mapped, we studied patch dynamics in the annual plant Crepis sancta (Asteraceae). Using stochastic patch occupancy models (SPOMs) and multi‐year occupancy data we dissected extinction and colonization patterns in our system. Overall, our data were consistent with two distinct metapopulation scenarios. A metapopulation (sensu stricto) dynamic in which colonization occurs over a short distance and extinction is lowered by nearby occupied patches (rescue effect) was found in a set of patches close to the city centre, while a propagule rain model in which colonization occurs from a large external population was most consistent with data from other networks. Overall, the study highlights the importance of external seed sources in urban patch dynamics. Our analysis emphasizes the fact that plant distributions are governed not only by habitat properties but also by the intrinsic properties of colonization and dispersal of species. The metapopulation approach provides a valuable tool for understanding how colonization and extinction shape occupancy patterns in highly fragmented plant populations. Finally, this study points to the potential utility of more complex plant metapopulation models than traditionally used for analysing ecological and evolutionary processes in natural metapopulations. 相似文献
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Mike Letnic 《Biodiversity and Conservation》2000,9(3):295-308
Among the most popular media images of Australia are the outback heroes: the explorer, pioneer and pastoralist. However, there is insufficient attention paid to the role that pastoralists and their management strategies have played in the dispossession and degradation of arid Australia. A historical overview of ecology and land management suggests that the fragility of Australia's arid ecosystems was identified over 100 years ago, and despite repeated calls for reform, effective regional management schemes are still vehemently opposed by pastoralists. I argue that, until the role played by pastoralists and their management strategies in the degradation of arid Australia has been adequately communicated, pastoralists will remain a powerful political lobby capable of thwarting the implementation of sustainable land management practises. 相似文献
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We present a stochastic model for metapopulations in landscapes with a finite but arbitrary number of patches. The model, similar in form to the chain-binomial epidemic models, is an absorbing Markov chain that describes changes in the number of occupied patches as a sequence of binomial probabilities. It predicts the quasi-equilibrium distribution of occupied patches, the expected extinction time (τ¯), and the probability of persistence (l¯(x)) to time x as a function of the number N of patches in the landscape and the number S of those patches that are suitable for the population. For a given value of N , the model shows that: (1) τ¯ and l¯(x) are highly sensitive to changes in S and (2) there is a threshold value of S at which τ¯ declines abruptly from extremely large to very small values. We also describe a statistical method for estimating model parameters from time series data in order to evaluate metapopulation viability in real landscapes. An example is presented using published data on the Glanville fritillary butterfly, Meltiaea cinxia , and its specialist parasitoid Cotesia melitaearum . We calculate the expected extinction time of M. cinxia as a function of the frequency of parasite outbreaks, and are able to predict the minimum number of years between outbreaks required to ensure long-term persistence of M. cinxia . The chain-binomial model provides a simple but powerful method for assessing the effects of human and natural disturbances on extinction times and persistence probabilities in finite landscapes. 相似文献
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《Journal of biological dynamics》2013,7(1):187-205
To understand the interplay between environmental stochasticity and Allee effects, we analyse persistence, asymptotic extinction, and conditional persistence for stochastic difference equations. Our analysis reveals that persistence requires that the geometric mean of fitness at low densities is greater than one. When this geometric mean is less than one, asymptotic extinction occurs with high probability for low initial population densities. Additionally, if the population only experiences positive density-dependent feedbacks, conditional persistence occurs provided the geometric mean of fitness at high population densities is greater than one. However, if the population experiences both positive and negative density-dependent feedbacks, conditional persistence only occurs if environmental fluctuations are sufficiently small. We illustrate counter-intuitively that environmental fluctuations can increase the probability of persistence when populations are initially at low densities, and can cause asymptotic extinction of populations experiencing intermediate predation rates despite conditional persistence occurring at higher predation rates. 相似文献