Plankton time — space dynamics in German Bight — a systems approach

Summary Long term continuous plankton measurements at Helgoland (North Sea) have provided a set of data which could be used for ecological functional analysis with respect to prey predator theory. Local dynamics display trophic feedback between selected populations. Phytoplankton, small copepods, Noctiluca miliaris, Pleurobrachia pileus and Beroe gracilis conform with theoretical assumptions. The functional relationships are less significant in averaged population dynamics compared with single ear processes. The local prey-predator cycles are to be understood as population waves travelling through German Bight. Such population waves over an area of 18 000 km² have been investigated and are displayed for the above given zooplankton populations as computer graphics and analysed in their progression for the population of P. pileus.     

Differences in population dynamics and potential impacts of a freshwater invader driven by temporal habitat stability

Understanding population dynamics and population regulation of invasive species is critical for predicting their effects on native ecosystems as well as for control strategies. Many species of gastropod in the genus Pomacea are successful aquatic invaders that have caused economic and ecological impacts in Southeastern Asia where their large fecundity and broad reproductive window helps them to colonize and take advantages of ephemeral agricultural habitats. We followed the population dynamics of P. insularum in permanent, stable freshwater systems (ponds and streams), and in ephemeral agricultural habitats in the upper Texas Gulf Coast region, USA. We found that although P. insularum has a large reproductive potential, its density, biomass and size structure in stable permanent systems did not change significantly from March to November, and densities averaged <2 m⁻². This same species, however, displayed very different population dynamics in ephemeral agricultural environments. We found high densities (>130 m⁻²), and no stable size structure through time. Differences in the stability and persistence of these two types of environments appear to drive these patterns. Stability and persistence of habitats can result in different predator communities and the risk of predation for snails. We suggest that such factors may cause the differences in population dynamics and structure observed. The ability of snails to escape population control and explode in ephemeral habitats could drive the types of impacts seen on agricultural crops.     

Status,trends, and equilibrium abundance estimates of the translocated sea otter population in Washington State

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris kenyoni) historically occurred in Washington State, USA, until their local extinction in the early 1900s as a result of the maritime fur trade. Following their extirpation, 59 sea otters were translocated from Amchitka Island, Alaska, USA, to the coast of Washington, with 29 released at Point Grenville in 1969 and 30 released at La Push in 1970. The Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife has outlined 2 main objectives for sea otter recovery: a target population level and a target geographic distribution. Recovery criteria are based on estimates of population abundance, equilibrium abundance (K), and geographic distribution; therefore, estimates of these parameters have important management implications. We compiled available survey data for sea otters in Washington State since their translocation (1977–2019) and fit a Bayesian state-space model to estimate past and current abundance, and equilibrium abundance at multiple spatial scales. We then used forward projections of population dynamics to explore potential scenarios of range recolonization and as the basis of a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the relative influence of movement behavior, frontal wave speed, intrinsic growth, and equilibrium density on future population recovery potential. Our model improves upon previous analyses of sea otter population dynamics in Washington by partitioning and quantifying sources of estimation error to estimate population dynamics, by providing robust estimates of K, and by simulating long-term population growth and range expansion under a range of realistic parameter values. Our model resulted in predictions of population abundance that closely matched observed counts. At the range-wide scale, the population size in our model increased from an average of 21 independent sea otters (95% CI = 13–29) in 1977 to 2,336 independent sea otters (95% CI = 1,467–3,359) in 2019. The average estimated annual growth rate was 12.42% and varied at a sub-regional scale from 6.42–14.92%. The overall estimated mean K density of sea otters in Washington was 1.71 ± 0.90 (SD) independent sea otters/km² of habitat (1.96 ± 1.04 sea otters/km², including pups), and estimated densities within the current range correspond on average to 87% of mean sub-regional equilibrium values (range = 66–111%). The projected value of K for all of Washington was 5,287 independent sea otters (95% CI = 2,488–8,086) and 6,080 sea otters including pups (95% CI = 2,861–9,300), assuming a similar range of equilibrium densities in currently un-occupied habitats. Sensitivity analysis of simulations of sea otter population growth and range expansion suggested that mean K density estimates in currently occupied sub-regions had the largest impact on predicted future population growth (r² = 0.52), followed by the rate of southward range expansion (r² = 0.26) and the mean K density estimate of currently unoccupied sub-regions to the south of the current range (r² = 0.04). Our estimates of abundance and sensitivity analysis of simulations of future population abundance and geographic range help determine population status in relation to population recovery targets and identify the most influential parameters affecting future population growth and range expansion for sea otters in Washington State.     

Sex-specific population dynamics and demography of capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) in a patchy environment

Modeling the population dynamics of patchily distributed species is a challenge, particularly when inference must be based on incomplete and small data sets such as those from most species of conservation concern. Here, we develop an open population spatial capture–recapture (SCR) model with sex-specific detection and population dynamics parameters to investigate population trend and sex-specific population dynamics of a capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) population in Switzerland living in eight distinct forest patches totaling 22 km² within a region of 908 km² and sampled via scat collection. Our model accounts for the patchy distribution of habitat and the uncertainty introduced by collecting data only every third year, while producing sex by patch population trajectories. The estimated population trajectory was a decline of 2% per year; however, the sex specificity of the model revealed a decline in the male population only, with no evidence of decline in the female population. The decline observed in males was explained by the demography of just two of the eight patches. Our study highlights the flexibility of open population SCR models for assessing population trajectories through time and across space and emphasizes the desirability of estimating sex-stratified population trends especially in species of conservation concern.     

Spatial variation in the magnitude and functional form of density‐dependent processes on the large skipper butterfly Ochlodes sylvanus

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The impact of population dynamics on Y-chromosome microsatellite polymorphism. Mathematical modeling

In this article, we use mathematical modeling to study the impact of population dynamics on Y-chromosome STR-polymorphism accumulation in two independently evolving populations, namely, on the changes in genetic distance between the populations. Comparative analysis using two definitions of genetic distance—(δμ)² and ASD—shows that, in contrast to (δμ)², ASD is almost linearly dependent on time (except for sparse stationary populations, where deviations are observed). When the population numbers undergo oscillations, ASD proves to be smaller than that for stationary populations.     

Overcompensatory recruitment and generation delay in discrete age-structured population models

 The effect of overcompensatory recruitment and the combined effect of overcompensatory recruitment and generation delay in discrete nonlinear age-structured population models is studied. Considering overcompensatory recruitment alone, we present formal proofs of the supercritical nature of bifurcations (both flip and Hopf) as well as an extensive analysis of dynamics in unstable parameter regions. One important finding here is that in case of small and moderate year to year survival probabilities there are large regions in parameter space where the qualitative behaviour found in a general n+1 dimensional model is retained already in a one-dimensional model. Another result is that the dynamics at or near the boundary of parameter space may be very complicated. Generally, generation delay is found to act as a destabilizing effect but its effect on dynamics is by no means unique. The most profound effect occurs in the n-generation delay cases. In these cases there is no stable equilibrium X ^* at all, but whenever X ^* small, a stable cycle of period n+1 where the periodic points in the cycle are on a very special form. In other cases generation delay does not alter the dynamics in any substantial way. Received 25 April 1995; received in revised form 21 November 1995     

Asynchronization of local population dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation: a lesson from an endangered composite plant, Aster kantoensis

Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV ²) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. Received: January 12, 2000 / Accepted: February 8, 2000     

Population dynamics and production of Daphnia hyalina Leydig and Daphnia cucullata Sars in Tjeukemeer

As part of a research programme on the food chains in Tjeukemeer, the Daphnia hyalina and Daphnia cucullata populations were studied for three successive years. To analyse the factors regulating the production of these two species, their population parameters (density, size distribution, fecundity) and population dynamics (birth rate, mortality rate) were studied and related to environmental factors. Since Daphnia in Tjeukemeer shows continuous recruitment, the population dynamics model INSTAR was developed and used to integrate field data with laboratory data on development rates and length-weight relationships. The dynamics of the Daphnia species are mainly regulated by temperature and fish predation, the latter affects both birth rate and mortality. Total annual Daphnia production was 3.1–6.9 g org. dry wt M^–2, and annual P/B ratio ranged from 25 to 40 for D. cucullata and from 45 to 49 for D. hyalina.     

祁连山大野口流域青海云杉种群数量动态

种群数量动态揭示了种群的结构特征及其潜在的驱动机制,有助于预测种群未来的动态,进而为森林生态系统的保护与恢复提供理论依据。本研究基于10.2 hm²青海云杉动态监测样地数据,以种群径级结构代替年龄结构,编制静态生命表,绘制径级结构图、存活曲线、死亡率曲线、消失率曲线和4个生存分析函数曲线,分析青海云杉种群数量特征,并利用种群数量动态变化指数和时间序列模型对种群数量动态进行预测。结果表明：（1）青海云杉种群的年龄结构近似于倒"J"型,幼苗和小树储量丰富;（2）种群存活曲线趋近于Deevey-Ⅱ型,为稳定型种群,死亡率曲线和消失率曲线变化趋势基本一致,均在第2、8龄级出现高峰期;（3）生存率曲线呈下降趋势,累计死亡率曲线呈上升趋势,死亡密度曲线缓慢下降,而危险率曲线逐渐上升,该种群具有：前期减少、中期稳定、后期衰退的生长特点;（4）种群数量变化动态指数V_pi>0,表明该种群属于增长型种群,V_pi''>0且趋近于0,则表明该种群趋近于稳定型;（5）时间序列预测分析表明,在未来2、4、6、8个龄级时间后,种群呈稳定增长趋势。研究显示,祁连山大野口流域青海云杉种群为稳定增长型种群,只要未来不遭受强烈干扰,种群数量会保持逐渐增长。针对该种群幼龄个体在前期的更新过程死亡率较高情况,建议在今后的经营管理中应重点加强对第1、2龄级植株生存环境的保护和改善,提高幼苗和小树的存活率。     

Penicillium frequentans population dynamics on peach fruits after its applications against brown rot in orchards

Aims: The study provides useful information on the temporal population dynamics of the biological control agent, Penicillium frequentans, after its applications against brown rot in orchards. Methods and Results: Population dynamics of P. frequentans were studied on peach flower and fruit surfaces after different field treatments. Eight experiments were carried out in commercial peach orchards in Spain, over four growing seasons from 2002 to 2005. Six different formulated P. frequentans conidia were applied four to six times from blossom to harvest and P. frequentans population sizes were monitored using conidial numbers and colony forming units (CFU) per flower or fruit. A consistent population of P. frequentans, ranging from 10⁵ to 10⁶ number of conidia or 10³ to 10⁴ CFU of P. frequentans per flower or fruit, was obtained. Colonization of peach surfaces by all P. frequentans formulation are similar and it appears to follow a general pattern: (i) higher colonization of fruits at preharvest than on the flowers at bloom; (ii) high populations just after treatments, especially after preharvest treatments; and (iii) a slight decline between treatments, especially in cool and moist springs. The exponential model was the most appropriate for fitting and comparing the P. frequentans dynamic populations on peaches and nectarines over time. The linearization of the P. frequentans population curve was essential to determine dynamic population and for population levels forecast. A positive relationship between number of blossom and preharvest applications, temperature, relative humidity and dynamic of P. frequentans population applied on peaches was studied using a multiple regression model. Conclusions: Blossom and preharvest applications were the most important spray times for obtaining the highest population of P. frequentans on peach surfaces. Significance and Impact of the Study: The study provides useful information on dynamic P. frequentans population and its effects on the brown rot biocontrol.     

Brachionus plicatilis tolerance to low oxygen concentrations

Tolerance to low oxygen concentrations is expected in Brachionus plicatilis, a rotifer adapted to live in saline warm waters. The population dynamics of a clone of this species, isolated from an endorreic saline lake, was studied under controlled laboratory conditions. Although their growth and metabolism is extremely reduced, B. plicatilis populations are able to maintain relatively high-density populations (a mean of 35 ind ml^–1) in oxygen concentrations below 1 mg 1^–1, for more than one month. Major features of population growth related to oxygen are discussed.     

Seasonality,population dynamics and production of planktonic rotifers in Lough Neagh,Northern Ireland

The abundances, population dynamics and production of the rotifer community of Lough Neagh were examined for a three year period. Keratella cochlearis was the most abundant species accounting for over 40% of biomass followed by Polyarthra dolichoptera and Notholca acuminata. The mean standing crop for the rotiferan zooplankton increased in successive years (41, 51, 75 mg dwt m^–2) as did production (1037, 1322, 1417 mg dwt m^–2 y^–1). The seasonal pattern of biomass expression and production varies markedly in different years. Instantaneous birth rates tend to be lower but more consistent for the more abundant species, instantaneous death rates show periods of negative mortality indicating an inadequacy of the model employed but explicable as hatching of resting eggs. K. cochlearis as the most successful species is explained as its perennial appearance and adaptation to the low annual temperature cycle found in the lough. The population succession and the annual occurrence of species differs in each year.     

How small are small mutation rates?

We consider evolutionary game dynamics in a finite population of size N. When mutations are rare, the population is monomorphic most of the time. Occasionally a mutation arises. It can either reach fixation or go extinct. The evolutionary dynamics of the process under small mutation rates can be approximated by an embedded Markov chain on the pure states. Here we analyze how small the mutation rate should be to make the embedded Markov chain a good approximation by calculating the difference between the real stationary distribution and the approximated one. While for a coexistence game, where the best reply to any strategy is the opposite strategy, it is necessary that the mutation rate μ is less than N ^−1/2exp[−N] to ensure that the approximation is good, for all other games, it is sufficient if the mutation rate is smaller than (N ln N)⁻¹. Our results also hold for a wide class of imitation processes under arbitrary selection intensity.     

Density-dependent regulation of natural and laboratory rotifer populations

Density-dependent regulation of abundance is fundamentally important in the dynamics of most animal populations. Density effects, however, have rarely been quantified in natural populations, so population models typically have a large uncertainty in their predictions. We used models generated from time series analysis to explore the form and strength of density-dependence in several natural rotifer populations. Population growth rate (r) decreased linearly or non-linearly with increased population density, depending on the rotifer species. Density effects in natural populations reduced r to 0 at densities of 1–10 l^–1 for 8 of the 9 rotifer species investigated. The sensitivities of these species to density effects appeared normally distributed, with a mean r=0 density of 2.3 l^–1 and a standard deviation of 1.9. Brachionus rotundiformis was the outlier with 10–100× higher density tolerance. Density effects in laboratory rotifer populations reduced r to 0 at population densities of 10–100 ml^–1, which is 10⁴ higher than densities in natural populations. Density effects in laboratory populations are due to food limitation, autotoxicity or to their combined effects. Experiments with B. rotundiformis demonstrated the absence of autotoxicity at densities as high as 865 ml^–1, a much higher density than observed in natural populations. It is, therefore, likely that food limitation rather than autotoxicity plays a major role in regulating natural rotifer populations.     

Population dynamics of pampas mice (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Akodon azarae</Emphasis>): signatures of competition and predation exposed through time-series modeling

The ability of four mechanistic population models to mirror a 5-year time series of seasonal densities of the pampas mouse, Akodon azarae, from central Argentina, is evaluated in this paper. The different models included, singly or in combination, the effects of a putative competitor and a specialist predator on the dynamics of pampas mice. The most simple model, a logistic single-species stochastic differential equation, failed to fit the observed time series satisfactorily (R _model² = 0.36), while models including interspecific effects gave much better fits with increasing model complexity (competition R _model² = 0.71, predation R _model² = 0.62, competition and predation R _model² = 0.83). Using Akaike’s information criterion, the competition model was selected as the best alternative with regard to model fit and model complexity. Synthetic time-series probes obtained by simulations from the parameterized stochastic mechanistic models were significantly different and indicated the competition plus predation model as a slightly better alternative than the competition model. The differences between the two methods for selecting models indicate that the incorporation of predation only slightly improves the match between the predicted and observed time series and that this slight improvement is not sufficient to override the increase in model complexity. Competition thus seems to play a more important role than predation in shaping the population dynamics of pampas mice.     

Direct and indirect interactions for coexistence in a species-defined microcosm

Mechanisms for coexistence among micro-organisms were studied by using a species-defined microcosm, consisting of the bacterium Escherichia coli, the ciliate Tetrahymena thermophila and the alga Euglena gracilis. These organisms were chosen as representative of ecological functional groups i.e. decomposer, consumer and producer, respectively. Direct and indirect interactions among these organisms were evaluated by comparisons of their population dynamics in culture with different combinations of the three species. There was an E. coli cell density dependent predator–prey interaction between T. thermophila and E. coli which was only established when there were more than 10⁶ cells ml^–1 of E. coli. Indirect interactions were evaluated from the cultivation of each organism in media containing metabolites of the others. Metabolites from each population strongly accelerated the growth of their own populations and those of the others except for the self-toxicity effect of E. coli metabolites. These observations suggested that not only the cell–cell contact of direct interactions, but also metabolite-mediated indirect interactions supported the maintenance of the populations of each micro-organism and their coexistence. In natural ecosystems, there are many interactions and it is difficult to evaluate all those regulating community dynamics. The gnotobiotic microcosm used in this study was shown to be suitable for examining the specific, species–species microbial interactions.     

Correlated extinctions, colonizations and population fluctuations in a highly connected ringlet butterfly metapopulation

 The persistence of metapopulations is likely to be highly dependent on whether population dynamics are correlated among habitat patches as a result of migration between patches and spatially-correlated environmental stochasticity (weather effects). We examined whether population dynamics of the ringlet butterfly, Aphantopus hyperantus, were synchronous in an area of approximately 0.5 km², with respect to extinction, colonization and population fluctuations. Monks Wood Butterfly Monitoring Scheme transect count data from 1973 to 1995, revealed (A) a major environmental perturbation, the drought of 1976, which caused synchronized extinctions of A. hyperantus in subsequent years, (B) synchronized recolonization in years following the large number of apparent extinctions, and (C) population changes by A. hyperantus were highly correlated in many of the 14 sections of the transect, presumably reflecting similar responses to environmental stochasticity, and the exchange of individuals among sections. However, extinction and population synchrony depended on habitat type. Following the 1976 drought, A. hyperantus apparently became extinct from the most open and most shady habitats it occupied, with some persistence in habitats of intermediate shading, thus showing retraction to core populations in central parts of an environmental gradient, albeit with an average shift to relatively open habitat. Populations at extreme ends of the environmental gradient occupied by A. hyperantus fluctuated least synchronously, suggesting a potential buffering effect of habitat heterogeneity, but this was not crucial to survival after the 1976 drought. Thus, not all habitats are equally important to persistence. Correlated temporal dynamics, variation in habitat quality and the interaction between habitat quality and temporal environmental stochasticity are important determinants of metapopulation persistence and should be incorporated in metapopulation models. Received: 26 April 1996 / Accepted: 17 July 1996     

Shell productivity of the large benthic foraminifer Baculogypsina sphaerulata,based on the population dynamics in a tropical reef environment

Carbonate production by large benthic foraminifers is sometimes comparable to that of corals and coralline algae, and contributes to sedimentation on reef islands and beaches in the tropical Pacific. Population dynamic data, such as population density and size structure (size-frequency distribution), are vital for an accurate estimation of shell production of foraminifers. However, previous production estimates in tropical environments were based on a limited sampling period with no consideration of seasonality. In addition, no comparisons were made of various estimation methods to determine more accurate estimates. Here we present the annual gross shell production rate of Baculogypsina sphaerulata, estimated based on population dynamics studied over a 2-yr period on an ocean reef flat of Funafuti Atoll (Tuvalu, tropical South Pacific). The population density of B. sphaerulata increased from January to March, when northwest winds predominated and the study site was on the leeward side of reef islands, compared to other seasons when southeast trade winds predominated and the study site was on the windward side. This result suggested that wind-driven flows controlled the population density at the study site. The B. sphaerulata population had a relatively stationary size-frequency distribution throughout the study period, indicating no definite intensive reproductive period in the tropical population. Four methods were applied to estimate the annual gross shell production rates of B. sphaerulata. The production rates estimated by three of the four methods (using monthly biomass, life tables and growth increment rates) were in the order of hundreds of g CaCO₃ m⁻² yr⁻¹ or cm⁻³ m⁻² yr⁻¹, and the simple method using turnover rates overestimated the values. This study suggests that seasonal surveys should be undertaken of population density and size structure as these can produce more accurate estimates of shell productivity of large benthic foraminifers.

     

Endophytic bacterial flora in the stem tissue of a tropical maize (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Zea mays</Emphasis> L.) genotype: isolation,identification and enumeration

The genotypic diversity of indigenous bacterial endophytes within stem of tropical maize (Zea mays L.) was determined in field and greenhouse experiments. Strains were isolated from stem tissues of a tropical maize cultivar (PEHM-1) by trituration and surface disinfestation and their population dynamics was determined. Endophytes were found in most of the growing season at populations ranging from 1.36–6.12 × 10⁵ colony-forming units per gram fresh weight (c.f.u./gm fw) of stem. Analysis of these bacterial endophytes using Gas Chromatography—Fatty Acid Methyl Ester (GC-FAME) led to the identification of Bacillus pumilus, B. subtilis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa and P. fluorescens as the relatively more predominant group of bacterial species residing in maize stem. When the maize seedlings grown in a greenhouse were inoculated with these four isolates individually, their population densities decreased (1.6–3.1 × 10⁵ c.f.u./gm fw of stem) as compared to the field-grown maize (1.8–3.8 × 10⁵ c.f.u./gm fw of stem). The highest persistence, however, was recovered in the case of B. subtilis with a population density of 3.1 × 10⁵ c.f.u./gm fw of stem tissue on 28 days after emergence (DAE). This is the first report on population dynamics of bacterial endophytes from tropical maize and the results establish that symptomless populations of bacteria exist in the maize stem.