Lassa fever: implications of T-cell immunity for vaccine development.

Lassa fever is a re-emerging viral hemorrhagic fever, which causes significant human morbidity in endemic regions of West Africa. Attempts to vaccinate against this virus in animal models including non-human primates have revealed that eliciting a strong cellular immune response protects from clinical disease, but not infection, in the absence of measurable neutralizing antibodies. As there is renewed interest in developing a vaccine against Lassa fever for use in humans, several questions should be addressed in view of the scarce knowledge of the mechanisms of natural immunity against this disease. MHC-dependency of a vaccine relying mainly on the induction of T-cell immunity and its ability to cross-protect against different Lassa virus strains will be important issues. Furthermore, the question whether the vaccine can prevent human-to-human transmission of the virus should be discussed and the possibility that vaccination could predispose to immunopathology should be excluded. We are addressing some of the above mentioned problems concerning natural immunity through field studies in the Republic of Guinea, West Africa, and are presently studying the CD4 cell responses of Lassa antibody positive subjects on the basis of T-cell proliferation assays using recombinant Lassa virus proteins.     

拉沙热研究进展

拉沙热(Lassa fever,LF)由拉沙病毒(Lassa virus,LASV)引起,是一种通过鼠类传播给人的急性出血性动物源性传染病,病死率高。主要在西非地区流行,但在全球多个国家发现输入性病例。本文主要针对拉沙病毒的病原学特点、疾病流行现状、临床特征、实验室检测、治疗及预防进展进行综述。同时,建议在全球经济一体化的大形势下,加强对拉沙热国际防控的关注度,建立国际联防联控防治策略和措施,并将其纳入全球防控体系。     

拉沙病毒分子流行病学特征和跨境传播风险

拉沙热主要流行于西非,经鼠传播,人群普遍易感,病死率高,暴发疫情频发,跨境传播时有发生。拉沙病毒易于传播,病毒分离、培养需在生物安全四级实验室(BSL-4)。2018年,世界卫生组织将其列为年度重点关注传染病,需加快研制防治关键技术手段。随着中非关系的日益紧密,贸易往来频繁,中国面临拉沙热的威胁显著增加。本文检索20世纪50年代首例拉沙热病例报道以来公开发表的主要文献,归纳拉沙热临床表现、病原学特征、流行病学特征、实验室检测以及跨境传播风险等,并对GenBank发布的全部287条拉沙病毒S基因编码区全长序列进行复核分析,以加强人们对拉沙热的了解,提高防控意识。     

Geographic Distribution and Genetic Characterization of Lassa Virus in Sub-Saharan Mali

Background

Lassa fever is an acute viral illness characterized by multi-organ failure and hemorrhagic manifestations. Lassa fever is most frequently diagnosed in Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea, although sporadic cases have been recorded in other West African countries, including Mali. The etiological agent of Lassa fever is Lassa virus (LASV), an Arenavirus which is maintained in nature and frequently transmitted to humans by Mastomys natalensis. The purpose of this study was to better define the geographic distribution of LASV-infected rodents in sub-Saharan Mali.

Methodologies/Principal Findings

Small mammals were live-trapped at various locations across Mali for the purpose of identifying potential zoonotic pathogens. Serological and molecular assays were employed and determined LASV infected rodents were exclusively found in the southern Mali near the border of Côte d''Ivoire. Overall, 19.4% of Mastomys natalensis sampled in this region had evidence of LASV infection, with prevalence rates for individual villages ranging from 0 to 52%. Full-length genomic sequences were determined using high throughput sequencing methodologies for LASV isolates generated from tissue samples of rodents collected in four villages and confirmed the phylogenetic clustering of Malian LASV with strain AV.

Conclusions/Significance

The risk of human infections with LASV is greatest in villages in southern Mali. Lassa fever should be considered in the differential diagnosis for febrile individuals and appropriate diagnostic techniques need to be established to determine the incidence of infection and disease in these regions.     

Rat-atouille: A Mixed Method Study to Characterize Rodent Hunting and Consumption in the Context of Lassa Fever

Lassa fever is a zoonotic hemorrhagic illness predominant in areas across Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Liberia, and southern Mali. The reservoir of Lassa virus is the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis), a highly commensal species in West Africa. Primary transmission to humans occurs through direct or indirect contact with rodent body fluids such as urine, feces, saliva, or blood. Our research draws together qualitative and quantitative methods to provide a fuller and more nuanced perspective on these varied points of human–animal contact. In this article, we focus on the hunting, preparation, and consumption of rodents as possible routes of exposure in Bo, Sierra Leone. We found that the consumption of rodents, including the reservoir species, is widespread and does not neatly tally against generational or gender lines. Further, we found that the reasons for rodent consumption are multifactorial, including taste preferences, food security, and opportunistic behavior. We argue that on certain topics, such as rodent consumption, establishing trust with communities, and using qualitative research methods, is key to investigate sensitive issues and situate them in their wider context. To conclude, we recommend ways to refine sensitization campaigns to account for these socio-cultural contexts.     

Bridging the gap: Using reservoir ecology and human serosurveys to estimate Lassa virus spillover in West Africa

Forecasting the risk of pathogen spillover from reservoir populations of wild or domestic animals is essential for the effective deployment of interventions such as wildlife vaccination or culling. Due to the sporadic nature of spillover events and limited availability of data, developing and validating robust, spatially explicit, predictions is challenging. Recent efforts have begun to make progress in this direction by capitalizing on machine learning methodologies. An important weakness of existing approaches, however, is that they generally rely on combining human and reservoir infection data during the training process and thus conflate risk attributable to the prevalence of the pathogen in the reservoir population with the risk attributed to the realized rate of spillover into the human population. Because effective planning of interventions requires that these components of risk be disentangled, we developed a multi-layer machine learning framework that separates these processes. Our approach begins by training models to predict the geographic range of the primary reservoir and the subset of this range in which the pathogen occurs. The spillover risk predicted by the product of these reservoir specific models is then fit to data on realized patterns of historical spillover into the human population. The result is a geographically specific spillover risk forecast that can be easily decomposed and used to guide effective intervention. Applying our method to Lassa virus, a zoonotic pathogen that regularly spills over into the human population across West Africa, results in a model that explains a modest but statistically significant portion of geographic variation in historical patterns of spillover. When combined with a mechanistic mathematical model of infection dynamics, our spillover risk model predicts that 897,700 humans are infected by Lassa virus each year across West Africa, with Nigeria accounting for more than half of these human infections.     

Risk Maps of Lassa Fever in West Africa

Background

Lassa fever is caused by a viral haemorrhagic arenavirus that affects two to three million people in West Africa, causing a mortality of between 5,000 and 10,000 each year. The natural reservoir of Lassa virus is the multi-mammate rat Mastomys natalensis, which lives in houses and surrounding fields. With the aim of gaining more information to control this disease, we here carry out a spatial analysis of Lassa fever data from human cases and infected rodent hosts covering the period 1965–2007. Information on contemporary environmental conditions (temperature, rainfall, vegetation) was derived from NASA Terra MODIS satellite sensor data and other sources and for elevation from the GTOPO30 surface for the region from Senegal to the Congo. All multi-temporal data were analysed using temporal Fourier techniques to generate images of means, amplitudes and phases which were used as the predictor variables in the models. In addition, meteorological rainfall data collected between 1951 and 1989 were used to generate a synoptic rainfall surface for the same region.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Three different analyses (models) are presented, one superimposing Lassa fever outbreaks on the mean rainfall surface (Model 1) and the other two using non-linear discriminant analytical techniques. Model 2 selected variables in a step-wise inclusive fashion, and Model 3 used an information-theoretic approach in which many different random combinations of 10 variables were fitted to the Lassa fever data. Three combinations of absence∶presence clusters were used in each of Models 2 and 3, the 2 absence∶1 presence cluster combination giving what appeared to be the best result. Model 1 showed that the recorded outbreaks of Lassa fever in human populations occurred in zones receiving between 1,500 and 3,000 mm rainfall annually. Rainfall, and to a much lesser extent temperature variables, were most strongly selected in both Models 2 and 3, and neither vegetation nor altitude seemed particularly important. Both Models 2 and 3 produced mean kappa values in excess of 0.91 (Model 2) or 0.86 (Model 3), making them ‘Excellent’.

Conclusion/Significance

The Lassa fever areas predicted by the models cover approximately 80% of each of Sierra Leone and Liberia, 50% of Guinea, 40% of Nigeria, 30% of each of Côte d''Ivoire, Togo and Benin, and 10% of Ghana.     

Health seeking behavior after the 2013–16 Ebola epidemic: Lassa fever as a metric of persistent changes in Kenema District,Sierra Leone

BackgroundThe West African Ebola epidemic of 2013–2016 killed nearly 4,000 Sierra Leoneans and devastated health infrastructure across West Africa. Changes in health seeking behavior (HSB) during the outbreak resulted in dramatic underreporting and substantial declines in hospital presentations to public health facilities, resulting in an estimated tens of thousands of additional maternal, infant, and adult deaths per year. Sierra Leone’s Kenema District, a major Ebola hotspot, is also endemic for Lassa fever (LF), another often-fatal hemorrhagic disease. Here we assess the impact of the West African Ebola epidemic on health seeking behaviors with respect to presentations to the Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) Lassa Ward, which serves as the primary health care referral center for suspected Lassa fever cases in the Eastern Province of Sierra Leone.Methodology/Principal findingsPresentation frequencies for suspected Lassa fever presenting to KGH or one of its referral centers from 2011–2019 were analyzed to consider the potential impact of the West African Ebola epidemic on presentation patterns. There was a significant decline in suspected LF cases presenting to KGH following the epidemic, and a lower percentage of subjects were admitted to the KGH Lassa Ward following the epidemic. To assess general HSB, a questionnaire was developed and administered to 200 residents from 8 villages in Kenema District. Among 194 completed interviews, 151 (78%) of respondents stated they felt hospitals were safer post-epidemic with no significant differences noted among subjects according to religious background, age, gender, or education. However, 37 (19%) subjects reported decreased attendance at hospitals since the epidemic, which suggests that trust in the healthcare system has not fully rebounded. Cost was identified as a major deterrent to seeking healthcare.Conclusions/SignificanceAnalysis of patient demographic data suggests that fewer individuals sought care for Lassa fever and other febrile illnesses in Kenema District after the West African Ebola epidemic. Re-establishing trust in health care services will require efforts beyond rebuilding infrastructure and require concerted efforts to rebuild the trust of local residents who may be wary of seeking healthcare post epidemic.     

Mice Lacking Functional STAT1 Are Highly Susceptible to Lethal Infection with Lassa Virus

Lassa fever (LF) is a potentially lethal human disease that is caused by the arenavirus Lassa virus (LASV). Annually, around 300,000 infections with up to 10,000 deaths occur in regions of Lassa fever endemicity in West Africa. Here we demonstrate that mice lacking a functional STAT1 pathway are highly susceptible to infection with LASV and develop lethal disease with pathology similar to that reported in humans.     

Differential pathogenesis of closely related 2018 Nigerian outbreak clade III Lassa virus isolates

Nigeria continues to experience ever increasing annual outbreaks of Lassa fever (LF). The World Health Organization has recently declared Lassa virus (LASV) as a priority pathogen for accelerated research leading to a renewed international effort to develop relevant animal models of disease and effective countermeasures to reduce LF morbidity and mortality in endemic West African countries. A limiting factor in evaluating medical countermeasures against LF is a lack of well characterized animal models outside of those based on infection with LASV strain Josiah originating form Sierra Leone, circa 1976. Here we genetically characterize five recent LASV isolates collected from the 2018 outbreak in Nigeria. Three isolates were further evaluated in vivo and despite being closely related and from the same spatial / geographic region of Nigeria, only one of the three isolates proved lethal in strain 13 guinea pigs and non-human primates (NHP). Additionally, this isolate exhibited atypical pathogenesis characteristics in the NHP model, most notably respiratory failure, not commonly described in hemorrhagic cases of LF. These results suggest that there is considerable phenotypic heterogeneity in LASV infections in Nigeria, which leads to a multitude of pathogenesis characteristics that could account for differences between subclinical and lethal LF infections. Most importantly, the development of disease models using currently circulating LASV strains in West Africa are critical for the evaluation of potential vaccines and medical countermeasures.     

Ecological niche and geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa

Monkeypox virus, a zoonotic member of the genus Orthopoxviridae, can cause a severe, smallpox-like illness in humans. Monkeypox virus is thought to be endemic to forested areas of western and Central Africa. Considerably more is known about human monkeypox disease occurrence than about natural sylvatic cycles of this virus in non-human animal hosts. We use human monkeypox case data from Africa for 1970-2003 in an ecological niche modeling framework to construct predictive models of the ecological requirements and geographic distribution of monkeypox virus across West and Central Africa. Tests of internal predictive ability using different subsets of input data show the model to be highly robust and suggest that the distinct phylogenetic lineages of monkeypox in West Africa and Central Africa occupy similar ecological niches. High mean annual precipitation and low elevations were shown to be highly correlated with human monkeypox disease occurrence. The synthetic picture of the potential geographic distribution of human monkeypox in Africa resulting from this study should support ongoing epidemiologic and ecological studies, as well as help to guide public health intervention strategies to areas at highest risk for human monkeypox.     

Data-Driven Modeling to Assess Receptivity for Rift Valley Fever Virus

Rift Valley Fever virus (RVFV) is an enzootic virus that causes extensive morbidity and mortality in domestic ruminants in Africa, and it has shown the potential to invade other areas such as the Arabian Peninsula. Here, we develop methods for linking mathematical models to real-world data that could be used for continent-scale risk assessment given adequate data on local host and vector populations. We have applied the methods to a well-studied agricultural region of California with 1 million dairy cattle, abundant and competent mosquito vectors, and a permissive climate that has enabled consistent transmission of West Nile virus and historically other arboviruses. Our results suggest that RVFV outbreaks could occur from February–November, but would progress slowly during winter–early spring or early fall and be limited spatially to areas with early increases in vector abundance. Risk was greatest in summer, when the areas at risk broadened to include most of the dairy farms in the study region, indicating the potential for considerable economic losses if an introduction were to occur. To assess the threat that RVFV poses to North America, including what-if scenarios for introduction and control strategies, models such as this one should be an integral part of the process; however, modeling must be paralleled by efforts to address the numerous remaining gaps in data and knowledge for this system.     

Functional interferon system is required for clearance of lassa virus

Lassa virus (LASV) is the causative agent of Lassa hemorrhagic fever (LF) in humans, a deadly disease endemic to West Africa that results in 5,000 to 10,000 deaths annually. Here we present results demonstrating that functional type I and type II interferon (IFN) signaling is required for efficient control of LASV dissemination and clearance.     

A Mycobacterial Perspective on Tuberculosis in West Africa: Significant Geographical Variation of M. africanum and Other M. tuberculosis Complex Lineages

BackgroundPhylogenetically distinct Mycobacterium tuberculosis lineages differ in their phenotypes and pathogenicity. Consequently, understanding mycobacterial population structures phylogeographically is essential for design, interpretation and generalizability of clinical trials. Comprehensive efforts are lacking to date to establish the West African mycobacterial population structure on a sub-continental scale, which has diagnostic implications and can inform the design of clinical TB trials.Conclusions/SignificanceBecause of the geographical divide of the mycobacterial populations in West Africa, individual research findings from one country cannot be generalized across the whole region. The unequal geographical family distribution should be considered in placement and design of future clinical trials in West Africa.     

Spatiotemporal spread of Plasmodium falciparum mutations for resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine across Africa, 1990–2020

BackgroundSulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is recommended in Africa in several antimalarial preventive regimens including Intermittent Preventive Treatment in pregnant women (IPTp), Intermittent Preventive Treatment in infants (IPTi) and Seasonal Malaria Chemoprevention (SMC). The effectiveness of SP-based preventive treatments are threatened in areas where Plasmodium falciparum resistance to SP is high. The prevalence of mutations in the dihydropteroate synthase gene (pfdhps) can be used to monitor SP effectiveness. IPTi-SP is recommended only in areas where the prevalence of the pfdhps540E mutation is below 50%. It has also been suggested that IPTp-SP does not have a protective effect in areas where the pfdhps581G mutation, exceeds 10%. However, pfdhps mutation prevalence data in Africa are extremely heterogenous and scattered, with data completely missing from many areas.Methods and findingsThe WWARN SP Molecular Surveyor database was designed to summarize dihydrofolate reductase (pfdhfr) and pfdhps gene mutation prevalence data. In this paper, pfdhps mutation prevalence data was used to generate continuous spatiotemporal surface maps of the estimated prevalence of the SP resistance markers pfdhps437G, pfdhps540E, and pfdhps581G in Africa from 1990 to 2020 using a geostatistical model, with a Bayesian inference framework to estimate uncertainty. The maps of estimated prevalence show an expansion of the pfdhps437G mutations across the entire continent over the last three decades. The pfdhps540E mutation emerged from limited foci in East Africa to currently exceeding 50% estimated prevalence in most of East and South East Africa. pfdhps540E distribution is expanding at low or moderate prevalence in central Africa and a predicted focus in West Africa. Although the pfdhps581G mutation spread from one focus in East Africa in 2000, to exceeding 10% estimated prevalence in several foci in 2010, the predicted distribution of the marker did not expand in 2020, however our analysis indicated high uncertainty in areas where pfdhps581G is present. Uncertainty was higher in spatial regions where the prevalence of a marker is intermediate or where prevalence is changing over time.ConclusionsThe WWARN SP Molecular Surveyor database and a set of continuous spatiotemporal surface maps were built to provide users with standardized, current information on resistance marker distribution and prevalence estimates. According to the maps, the high prevalence of pfdhps540E mutation was to date restricted to East and South East Africa, which is reassuring for continued use of IPTi and SMC in West Africa, but continuous monitoring is needed as the pfdhps540E distribution is expanding. Several foci where pfdhps581G prevalence exceeded 10% were identified. More data on the pfdhps581G distribution in these areas needs to be collected to guide IPTp-SP recommendations. Prevalence and uncertainty maps can be utilized together to strategically identify sites where increased surveillance can be most informative. This study combines a molecular marker database and predictive modelling to highlight areas of concern, which can be used to support decisions in public health, highlight knowledge gaps in certain regions, and guide future research.     

Ecological niche modelling of an invasive alien plant and its potential biological control agents

Invasive alien plants are of concern in South Africa. Pompom weed (Campuloclinium macrocephalum) is currently invading the Grassland and Savannah biomes of South Africa and is likely to continue spreading in the southern African sub- region. Two possible biological control agents (Liothrips tractabilis and Cochylis campuloclinium) have been identified for control of pompom weed. We used ecological niche modelling to predict which areas in southern Africa are likely to be suitable for pompom weed and the two potential biological control agents. The overlap between areas predicted to be highly suitable for pompom weed and areas suitable for the biological control agents was assessed. Methods of reducing sampling bias in a data set used for calibrating models were also compared. Finally, the performance of models calibrated using only native range data, only invaded range data and both were also compared. Models indicate that pompom weed is likely to spread across a greater region of southern Africa than it currently occupies, with the Savannah and Grassland biomes being at greatest risk of invasion. Poor overlap was found between the areas predicted to be highly suitable for pompom weed and those areas predicted to be suitable for the biological control agents. However, models of the potential distribution of the biological control agents are interpreted with caution due to the very small sample size of the data set used to calibrate the models. Models calibrated using both native range and invaded range data were found to perform best whilst models calibrated using only native range data performed the worst. There was little difference found between models that were calibrated using spatially reduced (selecting only one record per 30 min grid cell) and randomly reduced (randomly selecting 50% of available records) biased data sets.     

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Lassa Seropositivity in Inhabitants of the Forest Region of Guinea: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Lassa fever is a viral hemorrhagic fever endemic in West Africa. The reservoir host of the virus is a multimammate rat, Mastomys natalensis. Prevalence estimates of Lassa virus antibodies in humans vary greatly between studies, and the main modes of transmission of the virus from rodents to humans remain unclear. We aimed to (i) estimate the prevalence of Lassa virus–specific IgG antibodies (LV IgG) in the human population of a rural area of Guinea, and (ii) identify risk factors for positive LV IgG.

Methods and Findings

A population-based cross-sectional study design was used. In April 2000, all individuals one year of age and older living in three prefectures located in the tropical secondary forest area of Guinea (Gueckedou, Lola and Yomou) were sampled using two-stage cluster sampling. For each individual identified by the sampling procedure and who agreed to participate, a standardized questionnaire was completed to collect data on personal exposure to potential risk factors for Lassa fever (mainly contact with rodents), and a blood sample was tested for LV IgG. A multiple logistic regression model was used to determine risk factors for positive LV IgG. A total of 1424 subjects were interviewed and 977 sera were tested. Prevalence of positive LV Ig was of 12.9% [10.8%–15.0%] and 10.0% [8.1%–11.9%] in rural and urban areas, respectively. Two risk factors of positive LV IgG were identified: to have, in the past twelve months, undergone an injection (odds ratio [OR] = 1.8 [1.1–3.1]), or lived with someone displaying a haemorrhage (OR = 1.7 [1.1–2.9]). No factors related to contacts with rats and/or mice remained statistically significant in the multivariate analysis.

Conclusions

Our study underlines the potential importance of person-to-person transmission of Lassa fever, via close contact in the same household or nosocomial exposure.     

The impact of human conflict on the genetics of Mastomys natalensis and Lassa virus in West Africa

Environmental changes have been shown to play an important role in the emergence of new human diseases of zoonotic origin. The contribution of social factors to their spread, especially conflicts followed by mass movement of populations, has not been extensively investigated. Here we reveal the effects of civil war on the phylogeography of a zoonotic emerging infectious disease by concomitantly studying the population structure, evolution and demography of Lassa virus and its natural reservoir, the rodent Mastomys natalensis, in Guinea, West Africa. Analysis of nucleoprotein gene sequences enabled us to reconstruct the evolutionary history of Lassa virus, which appeared 750 to 900 years ago in Nigeria and only recently spread across western Africa (170 years ago). Bayesian demographic inferences revealed that both the host and the virus populations have gone recently through severe genetic bottlenecks. The timing of these events matches civil war-related mass movements of refugees and accompanying environmental degradation. Forest and habitat destruction and human predation of the natural reservoir are likely explanations for the sharp decline observed in the rodent populations, the consequent virus population decline, and the coincident increased incidence of Lassa fever in these regions. Interestingly, we were also able to detect a similar pattern in Nigeria coinciding with the Biafra war. Our findings show that anthropogenic factors may profoundly impact the population genetics of a virus and its reservoir within the context of an emerging infectious disease.     

What Factors Might Have Led to the Emergence of Ebola in West Africa?

An Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scope emerged in West Africa in December 2013 and presently continues unabated in the countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. Ebola is not new to Africa, and outbreaks have been confirmed as far back as 1976. The current West African Ebola outbreak is the largest ever recorded and differs dramatically from prior outbreaks in its duration, number of people affected, and geographic extent. The emergence of this deadly disease in West Africa invites many questions, foremost among these: why now, and why in West Africa? Here, we review the sociological, ecological, and environmental drivers that might have influenced the emergence of Ebola in this region of Africa and its spread throughout the region. Containment of the West African Ebola outbreak is the most pressing, immediate need. A comprehensive assessment of the drivers of Ebola emergence and sustained human-to-human transmission is also needed in order to prepare other countries for importation or emergence of this disease. Such assessment includes identification of country-level protocols and interagency policies for outbreak detection and rapid response, increased understanding of cultural and traditional risk factors within and between nations, delivery of culturally embedded public health education, and regional coordination and collaboration, particularly with governments and health ministries throughout Africa. Public health education is also urgently needed in countries outside of Africa in order to ensure that risk is properly understood and public concerns do not escalate unnecessarily. To prevent future outbreaks, coordinated, multiscale, early warning systems should be developed that make full use of these integrated assessments, partner with local communities in high-risk areas, and provide clearly defined response recommendations specific to the needs of each community.     

Climate and Landscape Factors Associated with Buruli Ulcer Incidence in Victoria,Australia

Background

Buruli ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans (M. ulcerans), is a necrotizing skin disease found in more than 30 countries worldwide. BU incidence is highest in West Africa; however, cases have substantially increased in coastal regions of southern Australia over the past 30 years. Although the mode of transmission remains uncertain, the spatial pattern of BU emergence in recent years seems to suggest that there is an environmental niche for M. ulcerans and BU prevalence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Network analysis was applied to BU cases in Victoria, Australia, from 1981–2008. Results revealed a non-random spatio-temporal pattern at the regional scale as well as a stable and efficient BU disease network, indicating that deterministic factors influence the occurrence of this disease. Monthly BU incidence reported by locality was analyzed with landscape and climate data using a multilevel Poisson regression approach. The results suggest the highest BU risk areas occur at low elevations with forested land cover, similar to previous studies of BU risk in West Africa. Additionally, climate conditions as far as 1.5 years in advance appear to impact disease incidence. Warmer and wetter conditions 18–19 months prior to case emergence, followed by a dry period approximately 5 months prior to case emergence seem to favor the occurrence of BU.

Conclusions/Significance

The BU network structure in Victoria, Australia, suggests external environmental factors favor M. ulcerans transmission and, therefore, BU incidence. A unique combination of environmental conditions, including land cover type, temperature and a wet-dry sequence, may produce habitat characteristics that support M. ulcerans transmission and BU prevalence. These findings imply that future BU research efforts on transmission mechanisms should focus on potential vectors/reservoirs found in those environmental niches. Further, this study is the first to quantitatively estimate environmental lag times associated with BU outbreaks, providing insights for future transmission investigations.