One hundred years ago: A medical minister in Russia

ObjectivesTo evaluate cardiovascular fitness exercise in people with fibromyalgia.DesignRandomised controlled trial.SettingHospital rheumatology outpatients. Group based classes took place at a “healthy living centre.”Participants132 patients with fibromyalgia.InterventionsPrescribed graded aerobic exercise (active treatment) and relaxation and flexibility (control treatment).ResultsCompared with relaxation exercise led to significantly more participants rating themselves as much or very much better at three months: 24/69 (35%) v 12/67 (18%), P=0.03. Benefits were maintained or improved at one year follow up when fewer participants in the exercise group fulfilled the criteria for fibromyalgia (31/69 v 44/67, P=0.01). People in the exercise group also had greater reductions in tender point counts (4.2 v 2.0, P=0.02) and in scores on the fibromyalgia impact questionnaire (4.0 v 0.6, P=0.07).ConclusionsPrescribed graded aerobic exercise is a simple, cheap, effective, and potentially widely available treatment for fibromyalgia.

What is already known on this topic

Fibromyalgia is common debilitating medically unexplained condition affecting around 1% of the populationCurrent treatments are unsatisfactory and most people remain the same after several years of treatmentExercise as a treatment given by healthcare professionals in highly specialised centres is of some short term benefit

What this study adds

For people with fibromyalgia prescribed graded aerobic exercise is an effective treatment that leads to improvements in self reported health statusPrescribed exercise can be undertaken effectively in the community by personal trainers previously inexperienced in management of people with ill health     

Integrating HIV prevention and treatment: from slogans to impact

Background

Through major efforts to reduce costs and expand access to antiretroviral therapy worldwide, widespread delivery of effective treatment to people living with HIV/AIDS is now conceivable even in severely resource-constrained settings. However, the potential epidemiologic impact of treatment in the context of a broader strategy for HIV/AIDS control has not yet been examined. In this paper, we quantify the opportunities and potential risks of large-scale treatment roll-out.

Methods and Findings

We used an epidemiologic model of HIV/AIDS, calibrated to sub-Saharan Africa, to investigate a range of possible positive and negative health outcomes under alternative scenarios that reflect varying implementation of prevention and treatment. In baseline projections, reflecting “business as usual,” the numbers of new infections and AIDS deaths are expected to continue rising. In two scenarios representing treatment-centered strategies, with different assumptions about the impact of treatment on transmissibility and behavior, the change in the total number of new infections through 2020 ranges from a 10% increase to a 6% reduction, while the number of AIDS deaths through 2020 declines by 9% to 13%. A prevention-centered strategy provides greater reductions in incidence (36%) and mortality reductions similar to those of the treatment-centered scenarios by 2020, but more modest mortality benefits over the next 5 to 10 years. If treatment enhances prevention in a combined response, the expected benefits are substantial—29 million averted infections (55%) and 10 million averted deaths (27%) through the year 2020. However, if a narrow focus on treatment scale-up leads to reduced effectiveness of prevention efforts, the benefits of a combined response are considerably smaller—9 million averted infections (17%) and 6 million averted deaths (16%). Combining treatment with effective prevention efforts could reduce the resource needs for treatment dramatically in the long term. In the various scenarios the numbers of people being treated in 2020 ranges from 9.2 million in a treatment-only scenario with mixed effects, to 4.2 million in a combined response scenario with positive treatment–prevention synergies.

Conclusions

These analyses demonstrate the importance of integrating expanded care activities with prevention activities if there are to be long-term reductions in the number of new HIV infections and significant declines in AIDS mortality. Treatment can enable more effective prevention, and prevention makes treatment affordable. Sustained progress in the global fight against HIV/AIDS will be attained only through a comprehensive response.     

Excess mortality rate during adulthood among Danish adoptees

Background and objective

Adoption studies have been used to disentangle the influence of genes from shared familial environment on various traits and disease risks. However, both the factors leading to adoption and living as an adoptee may bias the studies with regard to the relative influence of genes and environment compared to the general population. The aim was to investigate whether the cohort of domestic adoptees used for these studies in Denmark is similar to the general population with respect to all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality rates.

Methods

13,111 adoptees born in Denmark in 1917, or later, and adopted in 1924 to 1947 were compared to all Danes from the same birth cohorts using standardized mortality ratios (SMR). The 12,729 adoptees alive in 1970 were similarly compared to all Danes using SMR as well as cause-specific SMR.

Results

The excess in all-cause mortality before age 65 years in adoptees was estimated to be 1.30 (95% CI 1.26–1.35). Significant excess mortality before age 65 years was also observed for infections, vascular deaths, cancer, alcohol-related deaths and suicide. Analyses including deaths after age 65 generally showed slightly less excess in mortality, but the excess was significant for all-cause mortality, cancer, alcohol-related deaths and suicides.

Conclusion

Adoptees have an increased all-cause mortality compared to the general population. All major specific causes of death contributed, and the highest excess is seen for alcohol-related deaths.     

Adult Mortality Attributable to Preventable Risk Factors for Non-Communicable Diseases and Injuries in Japan: A Comparative Risk Assessment

Background

The population of Japan has achieved the longest life expectancy in the world. To further improve population health, consistent and comparative evidence on mortality attributable to preventable risk factors is necessary for setting priorities for health policies and programs. Although several past studies have quantified the impact of individual risk factors in Japan, to our knowledge no study has assessed and compared the effects of multiple modifiable risk factors for non-communicable diseases and injuries using a standard framework. We estimated the effects of 16 risk factors on cause-specific deaths and life expectancy in Japan.

Methods and Findings

We obtained data on risk factor exposures from the National Health and Nutrition Survey and epidemiological studies, data on the number of cause-specific deaths from vital records adjusted for ill-defined codes, and data on relative risks from epidemiological studies and meta-analyses. We applied a comparative risk assessment framework to estimate effects of excess risks on deaths and life expectancy at age 40 y. In 2007, tobacco smoking and high blood pressure accounted for 129,000 deaths (95% CI: 115,000–154,000) and 104,000 deaths (95% CI: 86,000–119,000), respectively, followed by physical inactivity (52,000 deaths, 95% CI: 47,000–58,000), high blood glucose (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 26,000–43,000), high dietary salt intake (34,000 deaths, 95% CI: 27,000–39,000), and alcohol use (31,000 deaths, 95% CI: 28,000–35,000). In recent decades, cancer mortality attributable to tobacco smoking has increased in the elderly, while stroke mortality attributable to high blood pressure has declined. Life expectancy at age 40 y in 2007 would have been extended by 1.4 y for both sexes (men, 95% CI: 1.3–1.6; women, 95% CI: 1.2–1.7) if exposures to multiple cardiovascular risk factors had been reduced to their optimal levels as determined by a theoretical-minimum-risk exposure distribution.

Conclusions

Tobacco smoking and high blood pressure are the two major risk factors for adult mortality from non-communicable diseases and injuries in Japan. There is a large potential population health gain if multiple risk factors are jointly controlled. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Mortality and smoking in Hong Kong: case-control study of all adult deaths in 1998

ObjectiveTo assess the mortality currently associated with smoking in Hong Kong, and, since cigarette consumption reached its peak 20 years earlier in Hong Kong than in mainland China, to predict mortality in China 20 years hence.DesignCase-control study. Past smoking habits of all Chinese adults in Hong Kong who died in 1998 (cases) were sought from those registering the death.SettingAll the death registries in Hong Kong.Participants27 507 dead cases (81% of all registered deaths) and 13 054 live controls aged ⩾35 years.ResultsIn men aged 35-69 the adjusted risk ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) comparing smokers with non-smokers were 1.92 (1.70 to 2.16) for all deaths, 2.22 (1.94 to 2.55) for neoplastic deaths, 2.60 (2.10 to 3.21) for respiratory deaths (including tuberculosis, risk ratio 2.54), and 1.68 (1.43 to 1.97) for vascular deaths (each P<0.0001). In women aged 35-69 the corresponding risk ratios were 1.62 (1.40 to 1.88) for all deaths, 1.60 (1.33 to 1.93) for neoplastic deaths, 3.13 (2.21 to 4.44) for respiratory deaths, and 1.55 (1.20 to 1.99) for vascular deaths (each P<0.001). If these associations with smoking are largely or wholly causal then, among all registered deaths at ages 35-69 in 1998, tobacco caused about 33% (2534/7588) of all male deaths and 5% (169/3341) of all female deaths (hence 25% of all deaths at these ages). At older ages tobacco seemed to be the cause of 15% (3017/20 420) of all deaths.ConclusionsAmong middle aged men the proportion of deaths caused by smoking is more than twice as big in Hong Kong now (33%) as in mainland China 10 years earlier. This supports predictions of a large increase in tobacco attributable mortality in China as a whole.

What is already known on this topic

China, with 20% of the world''s population, smokes 30% of the world''s cigarettes. Men smoke most, and the proportion of male deaths at ages 35-69 attributable to tobacco has been predicted to rise over the next few decades from 13% (in 1988) to about 33%In Hong Kong cigarette consumption reached its peak 20 years earlier than in mainland China, so the epidemic of male deaths from tobacco should now be at a more advanced stage

What this study adds

In the general population of Hong Kong in 1998 tobacco caused about 33% of all male deaths at ages 35-69 plus 5% of all female deaths, and hence 25% of all deaths at these agesIn the male smokers tobacco caused about half of all deaths at ages 35-69The hazards now seen in Hong Kong foreshadow a substantial increase in tobacco deaths among middle aged men in mainland China over the next few decades if current smoking patterns persist     

Endpiece: Hospital league tables 1830

ObjectiveTo assess the long term effects of advice to restrict dietary sodium in adults with and without hypertension.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.OutcomesMortality, cardiovascular events, blood pressure, urinary sodium excretion, quality of life, and use of antihypertensive drugs.ResultsThree trials in normotensive people (n=2326), five trials in those with untreated hypertension (n=387), and three trials in people being treated for hypertension (n=801) were included, with follow up from six months to seven years. The large high quality (and therefore most informative) studies used intensive behavioural interventions. Deaths and cardiovascular events were inconsistently defined and reported. There were 17 deaths, equally distributed between intervention and control groups. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were reduced (systolic by 1.1 mm Hg, 95% confidence interval 1.8 to 0.4 mm Hg; diastolic by 0.6 mm Hg, 1.5 to −0.3 mm Hg) at 13 to 60 months, as was urinary 24 hour sodium excretion (by 35.5 mmol/24 hours, 47.2 to 23.9). Degree of reduction in sodium intake and change in blood pressure were not related.ConclusionsIntensive interventions, unsuited to primary care or population prevention programmes, provide only small reductions in blood pressure and sodium excretion, and effects on deaths and cardiovascular events are unclear. Advice to reduce sodium intake may help people on antihypertensive drugs to stop their medication while maintaining good blood pressure control.

What is already known on this topic

Restricting sodium intake in people with hypertension reduces blood pressureLong term effects (on blood pressure, mortality, and morbidity) of reduced salt intake in people with and without hypertension are unclear

What this study adds

Few deaths and cardiovascular events have been reported in salt reduction trialsMeta-analysis shows that blood pressure was reduced (systolic by 1.1 mm Hg, diastolic by 0.6 mm Hg) at 13 to 60 months, with a reduction in sodium excretion of almost a quarter (35.5 mmol/24 hours)The interventions used were highly intensive and unsuited to primary care or population prevention programmesLower salt intake may help people on antihypertensive drugs to stop their medication while maintaining good control of blood pressure, but there are doubts about effects of sodium reduction on overall health     

Emerging tobacco hazards in China: 1. Retrospective proportional mortality study of one million deaths

ObjectiveTo assess the hazards at an early phase of the growing epidemic of deaths from tobacco in China.DesignSmoking habits before 1980 (obtained from family or other informants) of 0.7 million adults who had died of neoplastic, respiratory, or vascular causes were compared with those of a reference group of 0.2 million who had died of other causes.Setting24 urban and 74 rural areas of China.SubjectsOne million people who had died during 1986-8 and whose families could be interviewed.ResultsAmong male smokers aged 35-69 there was a 51% (SE 2) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 31% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 15% (2) excess of vascular deaths. All three excesses were significant (P<0.0001). Among male smokers aged ⩾70 there was a 39% (3) excess of neoplastic deaths, a 54% (2) excess of respiratory deaths, and a 6% (2) excess of vascular deaths. Fewer women smoked, but those who did had tobacco attributable risks of lung cancer and respiratory disease about the same as men. For both sexes, the lung cancer rates at ages 35-69 were about three times as great in smokers as in non-smokers, but because the rates among non-smokers in different parts of China varied widely the absolute excesses of lung cancer in smokers also varied. Of all deaths attributed to tobacco, 45% were due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and 15% to lung cancer; oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, tuberculosis, stroke, and ischaemic heart disease each caused 5-8%. Tobacco caused about 0.6 million Chinese deaths in 1990 (0.5 million men). This will rise to 0.8 million in 2000 (0.4 million at ages 35-69) or to more if the tobacco attributed fractions increase.ConclusionsAt current age specific death rates in smokers and non-smokers one in four smokers would be killed by tobacco, but as the epidemic grows this proportion will roughly double. If current smoking uptake rates persist in China (where about two thirds of men but few women become smokers) tobacco will kill about 100 million of the 0.3 billion males now aged 0-29, with half these deaths in middle age and half in old age.

Key messages

• Of the Chinese deaths now being caused by tobacco, 45% are from chronic lung disease, 15% from lung cancer, and 5-8% from each of oesophageal cancer, stomach cancer, liver cancer, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, and tuberculosis
• Tobacco now causes 13% (and will probably eventually cause about 33%) of deaths in men but only 3% (and perhaps eventually about 1%) of deaths in women as the proportion of young women who smoke has become small
• Two thirds of men now become smokers before age 25; few give up, and about half of those who persist will be killed by tobacco in middle or old age
• If present smoking patterns continue about 100 million of the 0.3 billion Chinese males now aged 0-29 will eventually be killed by tobacco
• Tobacco caused 0.6 million deaths in 1990 and will cause at least 0.8 million in 2000 (0.7 million in men) and about 3 million a year by the middle of the century on the basis of current smoking patterns

     

Neonatal mortality levels for 193 countries in 2009 with trends since 1990: a systematic analysis of progress, projections, and priorities

Background

Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990–2009 with forecasts into the future.

Methods and Findings

We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life—compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990—and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa''s NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9).

Conclusions

Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Molecular malaria epidemiology: mapping and burden estimates for the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2007

Background

Epidemiologic data on malaria are scant in many high-burden countries including the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), which suffers the second-highest global burden of malaria. Malaria control efforts in regions with challenging infrastructure require reproducible and efficient surveillance. We employed new high-throughput molecular testing to characterize the state of malaria control in the DRC and estimate childhood mortality attributable to excess malaria transmission.

Methods and Findings

The Demographic and Health Survey was a cross-sectional, population-based cluster household survey of adults aged 15–59 years in 2007 employing structured questionnaires and dried blood spot collection. Parasitemia was detected by real-time PCR, and survey responses measured adoption of malaria control measures and under-5 health indices. The response rate was 99% at the household level, and 8,886 households were surveyed in 300 clusters; from 8,838 respondents molecular results were available. The overall prevalence of parasitemia was 33.5% (95% confidence interval [C.I.] 32–34.9); P. falciparum was the most prevalent species, either as monoinfection (90.4%; 95% C.I. 88.8–92.1) or combined with P. malariae (4.9%; 95% C.I. 3.7–5.9) or P. ovale (0.6%; 95% C.I. 0.1–0.9). Only 7.7% (95% CI 6.8–8.6) of households with children under 5 owned an insecticide-treated bednet (ITN), and only 6.8% (95% CI 6.1–7.5) of under-fives slept under an ITN the preceding night. The overall under-5 mortality rate was 147 deaths per 1,000 live births (95% C.I. 141–153) and between clusters was associated with increased P. falciparum prevalence; based on the population attributable fraction, 26,488 yearly under-5 deaths were attributable to excess malaria transmission.

Conclusions

Adult P. falciparum prevalence is substantial in the DRC and is associated with under-5 mortality. Molecular testing offers a new, generalizable, and efficient approach to characterizing malaria endemicity in underserved countries.     

Influenza-related mortality trends in Japanese and American seniors: evidence for the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren

Background

The historical Japanese influenza vaccination program targeted at schoolchildren provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the indirect benefits of vaccinating high-transmitter groups to mitigate disease burden among seniors. Here we characterize the indirect mortality benefits of vaccinating schoolchildren based on data from Japan and the US.

Methods

We compared age-specific influenza-related excess mortality rates in Japanese seniors aged ≥65 years during the schoolchildren vaccination program (1978–1994) and after the program was discontinued (1995–2006). Indirect vaccine benefits were adjusted for demographic changes, socioeconomics and dominant influenza subtype; US mortality data were used as a control.

Results

We estimate that the schoolchildren vaccination program conferred a 36% adjusted mortality reduction among Japanese seniors (95%CI: 17–51%), corresponding to ∼1,000 senior deaths averted by vaccination annually (95%CI: 400–1,800). In contrast, influenza-related mortality did not change among US seniors, despite increasing vaccine coverage in this population.

Conclusions

The Japanese schoolchildren vaccination program was associated with substantial indirect mortality benefits in seniors.     

Disability in young people and adults one year after head injury: prospective cohort study

ObjectiveTo determine the frequency of disability in young people and adults admitted to hospital with a head injury and to estimate the annual incidence in the community.DesignProspective, hospital based cohort study, with one year follow up of sample stratified by coma score.SettingFive acute hospitals in Glasgow.Subjects2962 patients (aged 14 years or more) with head injury; 549 (71%) of the 769 patients selected for follow up participated.ResultsSurvival with moderate or severe disability was common after mild head injury (47%, 95% confidence interval 42% to 52%) and similar to that after moderate (45%, 35% to 56%) or severe injury (48%, 36% to 60%). By extrapolation from the population identified (90% of whom had mild injuries), it was estimated that annually in Glasgow (population 909 498) 1400 young people and adults are still disabled one year after head injury.ConclusionThe incidence of disability in young people and adults admitted with a head injury is higher than expected. This reflects the high rate of sequelae previously unrecognised in the large number of patients admitted to hospital with an apparently mild head injury.     

Impact on survival of intensive follow up after curative resection for colorectal cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials

ObjectiveTo review the evidence from clinical trials of follow up of patients after curative resection for colorectal cancer.DesignSystematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials of intensive compared with control follow up.ResultsFive trials, which included 1342 patients, met the inclusion criteria. Intensive follow up was associated with a reduction in all cause mortality (combined risk ratio 0.81, 95% confidence interval 0.70 to 0.94, P=0.007). The effect was most pronounced in the four extramural detection trials that used computed tomography and frequent measurements of serum carcinoembryonic antigen (risk ratio 0.73, 0.60 to 0.89, P=0.002). Intensive follow up was associated with significantly earlier detection of all recurrences (difference in means 8.5 months, 7.6 to 9.4 months, P<0.001) and an increased detection rate for isolated local recurrences (risk ratio 1.61, 1.12 to 2.32, P=0.011).ConclusionsIntensive follow up after curative resection for colorectal cancer improves survival. Large trials are required to identify which components of intensive follow up are most beneficial.

What is already known on this topic

There is a lack of direct evidence that intensive follow up after initial curative treatment for colorectal cancer leads to increased survivalGuidelines are inconclusive and clinical practice varies widely

What this study adds

The cumulative analysis of available data supports the view that intensive follow up after curative resection for colorectal cancer improves survivalIf computed tomography and frequent measurements of serum carcinoembryonic antigen are used during follow up mortality related to cancer is reduced by 9-13%This survival benefit is partly attributable to the earlier detection of all recurrences, particularly the increased detection of isolated recurrent disease     

Reanalysis of epidemiological evidence on lung cancer and passive smoking

ObjectiveTo assess the epidemiological evidence for an increase in the risk of lung cancer resulting from exposure to environmental tobacco smoke.DesignReanalysis of 37 published epidemiological studies previously included in a meta-analysis allowing for the possibility of publication bias.ResultsIf it is assumed that all studies that have ever been carried out are included, or that those selected for review are truly representative of all such studies, then the estimated excess risk of lung cancer is 24%, as previously reported (95% confidence interval 13% to 36%, P<0.001). However, a significant correlation between study outcome and study size suggests the presence of publication bias. Adjustment for such bias implies that the risk has been overestimated. For example, if only 60% of studies have been included, the estimate of excess risk falls from 24% to 15%.ConclusionA modest degree of publication bias leads to a substantial reduction in the relative risk and to a weaker level of significance, suggesting that the published estimate of the increased risk of lung cancer associated with environmental tobacco smoke needs to be interpreted with caution.

Key messages

• A systematic review of epidemiological studies on passive smoking estimated the increased risk of lung cancer as 24%
• There is clear evidence of publication bias in these studies
• Reanalysis of the data allowing for the possibility of publication bias substantially lowers the estimate of relative risk

     

Unnatural deaths in South African platinum miners, 1992-2008

Background

The mortality rate from unnatural deaths for South Africa is nearly double the world average. Reliable data are limited by inaccurate and incomplete ascertainment of specific causes of unnatural death. This study describes trends in causes of unnatural death between 1992 and 2008 in a cohort of South African miners.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The study used routinely-collected retrospective data with cause of death determined from multiple sources including the mine''s human resources database, medical records, death registration, and autopsy. Cause-specific mortality rates and Poisson regression coefficients were calculated by calendar year and age group. The cohort included 40,043 men. One quarter of all 2937 deaths were from unnatural causes (n = 805). Causes of unnatural deaths were road traffic accidents 38% (109/100,000 py), homicides 30% (88/100,000 py), occupational injuries 17% (50/100,000 py), suicides 8% (24/100,000 py), and other accidents 6% (19/100,000 py). Rates of unnatural deaths declined by 2% (95%CI -4%,-1%) per year over the study period, driven by declining rates of road traffic and other accidents. The rate of occupational injury mortality did not change significantly over time (-2% per year, 95%CI -5%,+2%). Unnatural deaths were less frequent in this cohort of workers than in the South African population (IRR 0.89, 95%CI 0.82–0.95), particularly homicides (IRR 0.48, 95%CI 0.42–0.55).

Conclusions/Significance

Unnatural deaths were a common cause of preventable and premature death in this cohort of miners. While unnatural death rates declined between 1992 and 2008, occupational fatalities remained at a high level. Evidence-based prevention strategies to address these avoidable deaths are urgently needed.     

Actinic skin damage and mortality--the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study

Background

Exposure to sunlight may decrease the risk of several diseases through the synthesis of vitamin D, whereas solar radiation is the main cause of some skin and eye diseases. However, to the best of our knowledge, the association of sun-induced skin damage with mortality remains unknown.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Subjects were 8472 white participants aged 25–74 years in the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. Cardiovascular disease mortality, cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality were obtained by either a death certificate or a proxy interview, or both. Actinic skin damage was examined and recorded by the presence and severity (absent, minimal, moderate, or severe) of overall actinic skin damage and its components (i.e., fine telangiectasia, solar elastosis, and actinic keratoses). Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier methods were applied to explore the associations. A total of 672 cancer deaths, 1500 cardiovascular disease deaths, and 2969 deaths from all causes were documented through the follow-up between 1971 and 1992. After controlling for potential confounding variables, severe overall actinic skin damage was associated with a 45% higher risk for all-cause mortality (95% CI: 1.22, 1.72; P<0.001), moderate overall skin damage with a 20% higher risk (95% CI: 1.08., 1.32; P<0.001), and minimal overall skin damage with no significant mortality difference, when compared to those with no skin damage. Similar results were obtained for all-cause mortality with fine telangiectasia, solar elastosis, and actinic keratoses. The results were similar for cancer and cardiovascular disease mortality.

Conclusions

The present study gives an indication of an association of actinic skin damage with cardiovascular disease, cancer and all-cause mortality in white subjects. Given the lack of support in the scientific literature and potential unmeasured confounding factors, this finding should be interpreted with caution. More independent studies are needed before any practical recommendations can be made.     

Snakebite mortality in India: a nationally representative mortality survey

Background

India has long been thought to have more snakebites than any other country. However, inadequate hospital-based reporting has resulted in estimates of total annual snakebite mortality ranging widely from about 1,300 to 50,000. We calculated direct estimates of snakebite mortality from a national mortality survey.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a nationally representative study of 123,000 deaths from 6,671 randomly selected areas in 2001–03. Full-time, non-medical field workers interviewed living respondents about all deaths. The underlying causes were independently coded by two of 130 trained physicians. Discrepancies were resolved by anonymous reconciliation or, failing that, by adjudication.A total of 562 deaths (0.47% of total deaths) were assigned to snakebites. Snakebite deaths occurred mostly in rural areas (97%), were more common in males (59%) than females (41%), and peaked at ages 15–29 years (25%) and during the monsoon months of June to September. This proportion represents about 45,900 annual snakebite deaths nationally (99% CI 40,900 to 50,900) or an annual age-standardised rate of 4.1/100,000 (99% CI 3.6–4.5), with higher rates in rural areas (5.4/100,000; 99% CI 4.8–6.0), and with the highest state rate in Andhra Pradesh (6.2). Annual snakebite deaths were greatest in the states of Uttar Pradesh (8,700), Andhra Pradesh (5,200), and Bihar (4,500).

Conclusions

Snakebite remains an underestimated cause of accidental death in modern India. Because a large proportion of global totals of snakebites arise from India, global snakebite totals might also be underestimated. Community education, appropriate training of medical staff and better distribution of antivenom, especially to the 13 states with the highest prevalence, could reduce snakebite deaths in India.     

Living alone and alcohol-related mortality: a population-based cohort study from Finland

Background

Social isolation and living alone are increasingly common in industrialised countries. However, few studies have investigated the potential public health implications of this trend. We estimated the relative risk of death from alcohol-related causes among individuals living alone and determined whether this risk changed after a large reduction in alcohol prices.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a population-based natural experimental study of a change in the price of alcohol that occurred because of new laws enacted in Finland in January and March of 2004, utilising national registers. The data are based on an 11% sample of the Finnish population aged 15–79 y supplemented with an oversample of deaths. The oversample covered 80% of all deaths during the periods January 1, 2000–December 31, 2003 (the four years immediately before the price reduction of alcohol), and January 1, 2004–December 31, 2007 (the four years immediately after the price reduction). Alcohol-related mortality was defined using both underlying and contributory causes of death. During the 8-y follow-up about 18,200 persons died due to alcohol-related causes. Among married or cohabiting people the increase in alcohol-related mortality was small or non-existing between the periods 2000–2003 and 2004–2007, whereas for those living alone, this increase was substantial, especially in men and women aged 50–69 y. For liver disease in men, the most common fatal alcohol-related disease, the age-adjusted risk ratio associated with living alone was 3.7 (95% confidence interval 3.3, 4.1) before and 4.9 (95% CI 4.4, 5.4) after the price reduction (p<0.001 for difference in risk ratios). In women, the corresponding risk ratios were 1.7 (95% CI 1.4, 2.1) and 2.4 (95% CI 2.0, 2.9), respectively (p ≤ 0.01). Living alone was also associated with other mortality from alcohol-related diseases (range of risk ratios 2.3 to 8.0) as well as deaths from accidents and violence with alcohol as a contributing cause (risk ratios between 2.1 and 4.7), both before and after the price reduction.

Conclusions

Living alone is associated with a substantially increased risk of alcohol-related mortality, irrespective of gender, socioeconomic status, or the specific cause of death. The greater availability of alcohol in Finland after legislation-instituted price reductions in the first three months of 2004 increased in particular the relative excess in fatal liver disease among individuals living alone. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Marital status and mortality among middle age and elderly men and women in urban Shanghai

Background

Previous studies have suggested that marital status is associated with mortality, but few studies have been conducted in China where increasing aging population and divorce rates may have major impact on health and total mortality.

Methods

We examined the association of marital status with mortality using data from the Shanghai Women''s Health Study (1996–2009) and Shanghai Men''s Health Study (2002–2009), two population-based cohort studies of 74,942 women aged 40–70 years and 61,500 men aged 40–74 years at the study enrollment. Deaths were identified by biennial home visits and record linkage with the vital statistics registry. Marital status was categorized as married, never married, divorced, widowed, and all unmarried categories combined. Cox regression models were used to derive hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

Unmarried and widowed women had an increased all-cause HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21 and HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 respectively) and cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.32 and HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.34 respectively) mortality. Never married women had excess all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.09). Divorce was associated with elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.13) and elevated all-cause mortality (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.86) in men. Amongst men, not being married was associated with excess all-cause (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.88) and CVD (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.54) mortality.

Conclusions

Marriage is associated with decreased all cause mortality and CVD mortality, in particular, among both Chinese men and women.     

Submitting articles to the BMJ

ObjectiveTo measure the effect of giving out free smoke alarms on rates of fires and rates of fire related injury in a deprived multiethnic urban population.DesignCluster randomised controlled trial.SettingForty electoral wards in two boroughs of inner London, United Kingdom.ParticipantsPrimarily households including elderly people or children and households that are in housing rented from the borough council.Intervention20 050 smoke alarms, fittings, and educational brochures distributed free and installed on request.ResultsGiving out free smoke alarms did not reduce injuries related to fire (rate ratio 1.3; 95% confidence interval 0.9 to 1.9), admissions to hospital and deaths (1.3; 0.7 to 2.3), or fires attended by the fire brigade (1.1; 0.96 to 1.3). Similar proportions of intervention and control households had installed alarms (36/119 (30%) v 35/109 (32%); odds ratio 0.9; 95% confidence interval 0.5 to 1.7) and working alarms (19/118 (16%) v 18/108 (17%); 0.9; 0.4 to 1.8).ConclusionsGiving out free smoke alarms in a deprived, multiethnic, urban community did not reduce injuries related to fire, mostly because few alarms had been installed or were maintained.

What is already known on this topic

In the United Kingdom, residential fires caused 466 deaths and 14 600 non-fatal injuries in 1999The risk of death from fire is associated with socioeconomic classOne study reported an 80% decline in hospitalisations and deaths from residential fires after free smoke alarms were distributed in an area at high risk, but these results may not apply in other settings, and evidence from randomised controlled trials is lacking

What this study adds

Giving out free smoke alarms in a multiethnic poor urban population did not reduce injuries related to fire or firesGiving smoke alarms away may be a waste of resources and of little benefit unless alarm installation and maintenance is assured     

Double blind, cluster randomised trial of low dose supplementation with vitamin A or beta carotene on mortality related to pregnancy in Nepal. The NNIPS-2 Study Group

ObjectiveTo assess the impact on mortality related to pregnancy of supplementing women of reproductive age each week with a recommended dietary allowance of vitamin A, either preformed or as β carotene.DesignDouble blind, cluster randomised, placebo controlled field trial.SettingRural southeast central plains of Nepal (Sarlahi district).Subjects44 646 married women, of whom 20 119 became pregnant 22 189 times.Intervention270 wards randomised to 3 groups of 90 each for women to receive weekly a single oral supplement of placebo, vitamin A (7000 μg retinol equivalents) or β carotene (42 mg, or 7000 μg retinol equivalents) for over 3½ years.ResultsMortality related to pregnancy in the placebo, vitamin A, and β carotene groups was 704, 426, and 361 deaths per 100 000 pregnancies, yielding relative risks (95% confidence intervals) of 0.60 (0.37 to 0.97) and 0.51 (0.30 to 0.86). This represented reductions of 40% (P<0.04) and 49% (P<0.01) among those who received vitamin A and β carotene. Combined, vitamin A or β carotene lowered mortality by 44% (0.56 (0.37 to 0.84), P<0.005) and reduced the maternal mortality ratio from 645 to 385 deaths per 100 000 live births, or by 40% (P<0.02). Differences in cause of death could not be reliably distinguished between supplemented and placebo groups.ConclusionSupplementation of women with either vitamin A or β carotene at recommended dietary amounts during childbearing years can lower mortality related to pregnancy in rural, undernourished populations of south Asia.

Key messages

• Maternal vitamin A deficiency, evident as night blindness or low serum retinol concentration during pregnancy, is widely prevalent in rural south Asia
• In Nepal, women of reproductive age who were given 7000 μg retinol equivalents of vitamin A on a weekly basis showed a reduction in mortality related to pregnancy of 40%
• Weekly dosing with 42 mg β carotene (also providing 7000 μg retinol equivalents) lowered their mortality by 49%
• Preventing maternal vitamin A deficiency in rural South Asia can lower the risk of mortality of women during and after pregnancy