Consequences of declining snow accumulation for water balance of mid‐latitude dry regions

Widespread documentation of positive winter temperature anomalies, declining snowpack and earlier snow melt in the Northern Hemisphere have raised concerns about the consequences for regional water resources as well as wildfire. A topic that has not been addressed with respect to declining snowpack is effects on ecosystem water balance. Changes in water balance dynamics will be particularly pronounced at low elevations of mid‐latitude dry regions because these areas will be the first to be affected by declining snow as a result of rising temperatures. As a model system, we used simulation experiments to investigate big sagebrush ecosystems that dominate a large fraction of the semiarid western United States. Our results suggest that effects on future ecosystem water balance will increase along a climatic gradient from dry, warm and snow‐poor to wet, cold and snow‐rich. Beyond a threshold within this climatic gradient, predicted consequences for vegetation switched from no change to increasing transpiration. Responses were sensitive to uncertainties in climatic prediction; particularly, a shift of precipitation to the colder season could reduce impacts of a warmer and snow‐poorer future, depending on the degree to which ecosystem phenology tracks precipitation changes. Our results suggest that big sagebrush and other similar semiarid ecosystems could decrease in viability or disappear in dry to medium areas and likely increase only in the snow‐richest areas, i.e. higher elevations and higher latitudes. Unlike cold locations at high elevations or in the arctic, ecosystems at low elevations respond in a different and complex way to future conditions because of opposing effects of increasing water‐limitation and a longer snow‐free season. Outcomes of such nonlinear interactions for future ecosystems will likely include changes in plant composition and productivity, dynamics of water balance, and availability of water resources.     

Seasonal habitat selection and space use by a semi‐free range herbivore in a heterogeneous savanna landscape

Understanding factors that influence habitat selection in heterogeneous landscapes is fundamental for establishing realistic models on animal distribution to inform rangeland management. In this study, we tested whether seasonal variation in habitat selection within the home range of a large herbivore was influenced by constraints such as, distances from water and central place using semi‐free range cattle (Bos taurus) as a case study. We also tested whether shifts in space use over time were dependent on spatial scale and on the overall abundance of resources. We predicted that distance from water significantly influenced dry season habitat selection while the influence of the central place on habitat selection was season‐independent. We also predicted that shifts in space use over time were spatial scale‐dependent, and that large herbivores would include more diverse habitats in their home ranges during the dry season, when water and food resources are less abundant. Multinomial logit models were used to construct habitat selection models with distances from water and central place as habitat‐specific constraints. Results showed significant variations in habitat selection between the dry and wet season. As predicted, the effect of distance from central place was season‐independent, while the effect of water was not included in the top dry season models contrary to expectation. A diverse range of habitats were also selected during the dry season including agricultural fields. Results also indicated that shifts in space use were spatial scale dependent, with core areas being more sensitive to changes than the home range. In addition, shifts in space use responded to temporal changes in habitat composition. Overall, our results suggest that semi‐free range herbivores adopt different foraging strategies in response to spatial‐temporal changes in habitat availability.     

Precipitation amount and event size interact to reduce ecosystem functioning during dry years in a mesic grassland

Ongoing intensification of the hydrological cycle is altering rainfall regimes by increasing the frequency of extreme wet and dry years and the size of individual rainfall events. Despite long‐standing recognition of the importance of precipitation amount and variability for most terrestrial ecosystem processes, we lack understanding of their interactive effects on ecosystem functioning. We quantified this interaction in native grassland by experimentally eliminating temporal variability in growing season rainfall over a wide range of precipitation amounts, from extreme wet to dry conditions. We contrasted the rain use efficiency (RUE) of above‐ground net primary productivity (ANPP) under conditions of experimentally reduced versus naturally high rainfall variability using a 32‐year precipitation–ANPP dataset from the same site as our experiment. We found that increased growing season rainfall variability can reduce RUE and thus ecosystem functioning by as much as 42% during dry years, but that such impacts weaken as years become wetter. During low precipitation years, RUE is lowest when rainfall event sizes are relatively large, and when a larger proportion of total rainfall is derived from large events. Thus, a shift towards precipitation regimes dominated by fewer but larger rainfall events, already documented over much of the globe, can be expected to reduce the functioning of mesic ecosystems primarily during drought, when ecosystem processes are already compromised by low water availability.     

Rainfall‐Tuned Management Facilitates Dry Forest Recovery

Regeneration of original dry forests and shrublands in degraded arid and semiarid ecosystems can be a slow and difficult process. It has been hypothesized that restoration efforts during periods of increased water availability may potentially trigger shifts back to a high vegetation cover depending on several environmental factors that govern the response of vegetation to rainfall. Tuning restoration efforts to climate variability will likely become increasingly important under climate change conditions. The experiences evaluated here are a pioneering effort to reforest arid South American forests. We used a combination of field monitoring and remote sensing images to evaluate the long‐term effects of seeding and herbivore control in local reforestation projects tuned to the forecasted rainy El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of 1991/1992 and 1997/1998 in North Peru and to assess the regional response of vegetation to these rainy events at a regional scale. We found that managing seed availability in combination with seedling protection from herbivores only yielded persistent higher vegetation cover when implemented on sites without calcareous layers and relatively high water availability determined by the surrounding topography. Our study shows that management tuned to forecasted rainfall events is able to trigger a long‐lasting shift toward higher vegetation cover. We provide a better insight in how environmental factors shape vegetation response to increased rainfall and discuss the implications for ecosystem resilience and restoration.     

Impacts of inundation and drought on eukaryote biodiversity in semi‐arid floodplain soils

Floodplain ecosystems are characterized by alternating wet and dry phases and periodic inundation defines their ecological character. Climate change, river regulation and the construction of levees have substantially altered natural flooding and drying regimes worldwide with uncertain effects on key biotic groups. In southern Australia, we hypothesized that soil eukaryotic communities in climate change affected areas of a semi‐arid floodplain would transition towards comprising mainly dry‐soil specialist species with increasing drought severity. Here, we used 18S rRNA amplicon pyrosequencing to measure the eukaryote community composition in soils that had been depleted of water to varying degrees to confirm that reproducible transitional changes occur in eukaryotic biodiversity on this floodplain. Interflood community structures (3 years post‐flood) were dominated by persistent rather than either aquatic or dry‐specialist organisms. Only 2% of taxa were unique to dry locations by 8 years post‐flood, and 10% were restricted to wet locations (inundated a year to 2 weeks post‐flood). Almost half (48%) of the total soil biota were detected in both these environments. The discovery of a large suite of organisms able to survive nearly a decade of drought, and up to a year submerged supports the concept of inherent resilience of Australian semi‐arid floodplain soil communities under increasing pressure from climatic induced changes in water availability.     

The role of El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the dynamics of a savanna large herbivore population

Our understanding of large‐scale climatic phenomena and dynamics of large herbivore populations comes principally from research in northern regions with temperate, seasonal climate and animal communities with relatively low species diversity. To assess the generality of that perspective, we investigated effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on population dynamics of African buffalo Syncerus caffer inhabiting a semi‐arid savanna with variable rainfall. We used linear and nonlinear‐threshold models to investigate relationships between population parameters and explanatory variables affecting forage conditions (seasonal rainfall, Southern Oscillation Index [SOI]). El Niño‐related droughts in 1982–1983 and 1991–1992 were associated with strongly negative population change, a pattern expected to coincide with a decrease in normally high and constant adult survival. Consistent with that nonlinear pattern, we detected threshold relationships between wet‐season rainfall and population change. Juvenile recruitment was described best by linear relationships with dry‐season. Because ENSO operates primarily through wet‐season rainfall, whereas population dynamics were also related to dry‐season rainfall, SOI did not have the predictive ability of individual weather components.     

Climate‐driven diversity change in annual grasslands: Drought plus deluge does not equal normal

Climate forecasts agree that increased variability and extremes will tend to reduce the availability of water in many terrestrial ecosystems. Increasingly severe droughts may be exacerbated both by warmer temperatures and by the relative unavailability of water that arrives in more sporadic and intense rainfall events. Using long‐term data and an experimental water manipulation, we examined the resilience of a heterogeneous annual grassland community to a prolonged series of dry winters that led to a decline in plant species richness (2000–2014), followed by a near‐record wet winter (2016–2017), a climatic sequence that broadly resembles the predicted future in its high variability. In our 80, 5‐m² observational plots, species richness did not recover in response to the wet winter, and the positive relationship of richness to annual winter rainfall thus showed a significant weakening trend over the 18‐year time period. In experiments on 100, 1‐m² plots, wintertime water supplementation increased and drought shelters decreased the seedling survival and final individual biomass of native annual forbs, the main functional group contributing to the observed long‐term decline in richness. Water supplementation also increased the total cover of native annual forbs, but only increased richness within nested subplots to which seeds were also added. We conclude that prolonged dry winters, by increasing seedling mortality and reducing growth of native forbs, may have diminished the seedbank and thus the recovery potential of diversity in this community. However, the wet winter and the watering treatment did cause recovery of the community mean values of a key functional trait (specific leaf area, an indicator of drought intolerance), suggesting that some aggregate community properties may be stabilized by functional redundancy among species.     

Resource heterogeneity and ungulate population dynamics

It has been suggested that climatic variation has the effect on the dynamics of arid and semi-arid grazing systems of reducing animal numbers below the level at which they have much impact on vegetation or soils, and that spatial heterogeneity in resource availability serves to buffer herbivores against climatic variation. Modelling was used to test these hypotheses and to examine the interacting effects of temporal and spatial variability in plant production on animal population dynamics and defoliation intensity. The model distinguishes areas of the range that are accessible during wet and dry seasons, and examines the effect of seasonal restrictions in foraging area. It was established that the animal population is in long-term equilibrium with dry-season resources, on which it depends for survival; that dry season resource areas and outlying areas thus operate in a source-sink manner; and that the ratio of these areas determines the strength of consumer-resource coupling outside the dry-season range. A high ratio of dry season to wet season resources may support a sufficiently large animal population to impose non-trivial defoliation impacts on the outlying range. Increasing degrees of variability in primary production on areas used by animals for surviving the dry season increased the annual variation in animal abundance and reduced the mean. By comparison with a stable environment, for which the model predicts virtually stable animal numbers and constant, low defoliation intensity, variation in annual rainfall causes wide fluctuations in animal numbers and defoliation intensity. Under climatic variation, animal numbers can build up enough to impose much higher defoliation intensities than under a constant regime. Periodic intense defoliation is a consequence of climatic variability which is likely to make these environments more, not less, prone to ecological change.     

Spatial and temporal hotspots of termite‐driven decomposition in the Serengeti

Ecosystem engineers are organisms that directly or indirectly control the availability of resources to other organisms by causing physical state changes in biotic or abiotic materials. Termites (Insecta, Isoptera) are among the most important ecosystem engineers in tropical ecosystems. We used a field experiment in the tall grasslands of Serengeti National Park, Tanzania, to investigate 1) the consumption by termites of grass litter and dung baits along the landscape gradient of catena position, and 2) seasonal variation in litter and dung removal. Our maps of termitaria and patterns of bait removal revealed clear spatial and temporal hotspots of termite activity. In the dry season termites removed more baits at the top‐catena positions than at the bottom positions, but there was no effect of catena position in the wet season. Spatial hotspots of termite activity overlapped with those of both mammalian herbivores and predators. Within the framework of ecosystem engineering, this study suggests that intraspecific aspects of spatial heterogeneity and temporal variability deserve much greater consideration.     

Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning‐ignited fire seasons

Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet–dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897–2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder‐days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning‐ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.     

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Large‐scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large‐scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007–2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large‐scale climatic variations on the short‐term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large‐scale climatic changes.     

Herbivory and plant growth rate determine the success of El Niño Southern Oscillation-driven tree establishment in semiarid South America

While climatic extremes are predicted to increase with global warming, we know little about the effect of climatic variability on biome distribution. Here, we show that rainy El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events can enhance tree recruitment in the arid and semiarid ecosystems of north‐central Chile and northwest Peru. Tree‐ring studies in natural populations revealed that rainy El Niño episodes have triggered forest regeneration in Peru. Field experiments indicate that tree seedling recruitment in Chile is much less successful than in Peru due mostly to larger mortality caused by herbivores. The dramatic impact of herbivores in Chile was derived from the combined result of slower plant growth and the presence of exotic herbivores (European rabbits and hares). The interplay of herbivory and climatic effects we demonstrated implies that rainy ENSO events may represent ‘windows of opportunity’ for forest recovery if herbivore pressure is minimized at the right moment.     

The ecology of the hippopotamus in Liwonde National Park,Malawi: implications for management

The hippopotamus population in Liwonde National Park, Malawi was studied from December 2002 to June 2003. Motorboat censuses along the River Shire counted 640 animals, but because of the large number of hippos in temporary water sources at the time, the true number is probably closer to 950. Marked shifts in hippo distribution from the Shire into temporary water sources occurred as the wet season advanced. Because of the Shire’s year‐round water supply, the hippo population is not regulated by the availability of aquatic refuges, but by food availability. By following feeding tracks, dry season grazing range was estimated to extend 5 km east and 1 km west of the river. Grazing intensity transects and visual estimates indicated only a small portion of this area is suitable for hippo grazing, leading to over‐grazing in suitable areas. Coupled with low primary productivity levels in Liwonde, this means that dry season food competition between hippos and other herbivores is probably high. Recent proposals to raise the Shire’s dry season water level should be considered very carefully, as this will flood late dry season grazing grounds, thereby intensifying grazing competition and increasing grazing pressure in remaining grazing areas, having potentially serious impacts on the animal community.     

Soil‐nutrient availability under a global‐change scenario in a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem

Changes in rainfall availability will alter soil‐nutrient availability under a climate‐change scenario. However, studies have usually analyzed the effect of either drier or wetter soil conditions, despite the fact that both possibilities will coexist in many climatic regions of the world. Furthermore, its effect may vary across the different habitats of the ecosystem. We experimentally investigated the effect of three contrasting climatic scenarios on different carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) fractions in soil and microbial compartments among three characteristic habitats in a Mediterranean‐type ecosystem: forest, shrubland, and open areas. The climatic scenarios were dry summers, according to the 30% summer rainfall reduction projected in the Mediterranean; wet summer, simulating summer storms to reach the maximum historical records in the study area; and current climatic conditions (control). Sampling was replicated during two seasons (spring and summer) and 2 years. The climatic scenario did not affect the nutrient content in the litter layer. However, soil and microbial nutrients varied among seasons, habitats, and climatic scenarios. Soil‐nutrient fractions increased with lower soil‐moisture conditions (dry scenario and summer), whereas microbial nutrients increased under the wet summer scenario and spring. This pattern was consistent both studied years, although it was modulated by habitat, differences being lower with denser plant cover. Holm oak seedlings, used as live control of the experiment, tended to increase their N and P content (although not significantly) with water availability. Thus, the results support the idea that higher rainfall boosts microbial and plant‐nutrient uptake, and hence nutrient cycling. By contrast, a rainfall reduction leads to an accumulation of nutrients in the soil, increasing the risk of nutrient loss by leaching or erosion. These results show that the projected climate change will have significant effects on nutrient cycles, and therefore will have important implications on the ecosystem functioning.     

Breeding cues in a wetland‐dependent Australian passerine of the seasonally wet‐dry tropics

The Capricorn yellow chat Epthianura crocea macgregori (Aves: Meliphagidae) occurs in the seasonal wet‐dry tropics. This region, although coastal, is typified by highly variable annual rainfall. The Capricorn yellow chat breeds in wetlands, predominantly in the summer–autumn period, but has the capacity to breed in response to out‐of‐season rainfall events, consistent with an opportunistically breeding species. Most studies of breeding cues in passerines have been on species centred on temperate climates with predictable rainfall season, arid biomes with a highly variable rainfall quantity and season, and the relatively non‐seasonal wet tropics. This study was focused on a species that occurs in an intermediate situation with a highly variable but summer dominant rainfall season. It aimed to identify which proximal cues are used by birds in such environments to prepare for breeding. Monthly observations at a breeding ground over a 45‐month period were regressed against environmental and climatic variables. There was a significant positive relationship of chat abundance with average minimum monthly air temperature and the extent of inundation. Invertebrate food availability was also sampled. Cross‐correlation with prior monthly rainfall showed that abundance of insects (Diptera, Hemiptera and Lepidoptera) and semi‐aquatic invertebrates peaked 1–2 months following large rainfall events, coinciding with peaks in presence of dependent young of Capricorn yellow chats. Thus, the Capricorn yellow chat matches the model for arid‐adapted birds in which seasonal cues (e.g. increasing day‐length or temperature) in spring lead to breeding preparedness, but breeding only occurs in response to proximal factors such as rainfall. However, the Capricorn yellow chat differs in that breeding is delayed until rainfall is sufficient to inundate its wetland habitat and stimulate the production of food resources associated with the low vegetation and muddy margins of the temporarily flooded pools and channels; suggesting that inundation may be the most important breeding cue.     

Dynamics of ungulates in relation to climatic and land use changes in an insularized African savanna ecosystem

Land use change and human population growth are accelerating the fragmentation and insularization of wildlife habitats worldwide. The conservation and management of wildlife in the resultant ‘island’ ecosystems in the context of global warming is challenging due to the isolation and reduced size of the ecosystems and hence the scale over which ecosystem processes can operate. We analyzed trends in numbers of nine large herbivores in Kenya’s Lake Nakuru National Park to understand how rainfall and temperature variability, surrounding land use changes, and boundary fencing affected wildlife population dynamics inside the park during 1970–2011. Buffalo, zebra and Thomson’s gazelle numbers increased persistently. Grant’s gazelle and impala increased initially then gradually declined. Waterbuck and warthog numbers progressively declined to levels that potentially threatened their local population persistence. The total biomass of ungulates tripled from 1970 to 2011, with buffalo replacing waterbuck as the predominant species in biomass. Increased competition from buffalo and zebra, heightened predation and illicit human harvests probably all contributed to the declines by waterbuck and warthog. Density-dependent limitation of population growth within the park confines was evident for buffalo, impala, eland, giraffe, Grant’s and Thomson’s gazelles. Fluctuations in the lake level related to varying rainfall affected changes in animal abundance through expansion of the lake area and flooding of grasslands bordering the lake. Unusually, the most stressful conditions were associated with high water levels following high rainfall. There was also evidence of carry-over effects from prior habitat conditions affecting all species. The relatively stable populations of all species except warthog and waterbuck demonstrate the remarkable capacity of this small, insularized park to retain viable populations of most of the large herbivores, without much management intervention.     

Climate extremes are associated with invertebrate taxonomic and functional composition in mountain lakes

Climate change is expected to increase climate variability and the occurrence of extreme climatic events, with potentially devastating effects on aquatic ecosystems. However, little is known about the role of climate extremes in structuring aquatic communities or the interplay between climate and local abiotic and biotic factors. Here, we examine the relative influence of climate and local abiotic and biotic conditions on biodiversity and community structure in lake invertebrates. We sampled aquatic invertebrates and measured environmental variables in 19 lakes throughout California, USA, to test hypotheses of the relationship between climate, local biotic and environmental conditions, and the taxonomic and functional structure of aquatic invertebrate communities. We found that, while local biotic and abiotic factors such as habitat availability and conductivity were the most consistent predictors of alpha diversity, extreme climate conditions such as maximum summer temperature and dry‐season precipitation were most often associated with multivariate taxonomic and functional composition. Specifically, sites with high maximum temperatures and low dry‐season precipitation housed communities containing high abundances of large predatory taxa. Furthermore, both climate dissimilarity and abiotic dissimilarity determined taxonomic turnover among sites (beta diversity). These findings suggest that while local‐scale environmental variables may predict alpha diversity, climatic variability is important to consider when projecting broad‐scale aquatic community responses to the extreme temperature and precipitation events that are expected for much of the world during the next century.     

Long‐term variability and rainfall control of savanna fire regimes in equatorial East Africa

Fires burning the vast grasslands and savannas of Africa significantly influence the global carbon cycle. Projecting the impacts of future climate change on fire‐mediated biogeochemical processes in these dry tropical ecosystems requires understanding of how various climate factors influence regional fire regimes. To examine climate–vegetation–fire linkages in dry savanna, we conducted macroscopic and microscopic charcoal analysis on the sediments of the past 25 000 years from Lake Challa, a deep crater lake in equatorial East Africa. The charcoal‐inferred shifts in local and regional fire regimes were compared with previously published reconstructions of temperature, rainfall, seasonal drought severity, and vegetation dynamics to evaluate millennial‐scale drivers of fire occurrence. Our charcoal data indicate that fire in the dry lowland savanna of southeastern Kenya was not fuel‐limited during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and Late Glacial, in contrast to many other regions throughout the world. Fire activity remained high at Lake Challa probably because the relatively high mean‐annual temperature (~22 °C) allowed productive C₄ grasses with high water‐use efficiency to dominate the landscape. From the LGM through the middle Holocene, the relative importance of savanna burning in the region varied primarily in response to changes in rainfall and dry‐season length, which were controlled by orbital insolation forcing of tropical monsoon dynamics. The fuel limitation that characterizes the region's fire regime today appears to have begun around 5000–6000 years ago, when warmer interglacial conditions coincided with prolonged seasonal drought. Thus, insolation‐driven variation in the amount and seasonality of rainfall during the past 25 000 years altered the immediate controls on fire occurrence in the grass‐dominated savannas of eastern equatorial Africa. These results show that climatic impacts on dry‐savanna burning are heterogeneous through time, with important implications for efforts to anticipate future shifts in fire‐mediated ecosystem processes.     

Large herbivore assemblages in a changing climate: incorporating water dependence and thermoregulation

The coexistence of different species of large herbivores (ungulates) in grasslands and savannas has fascinated ecologists for decades. However, changes in climate, land‐use and trophic structure of ecosystems increasingly jeopardise the persistence of such diverse assemblages. Body size has been used successfully to explain ungulate niche differentiation with regard to food requirements and predation sensitivity. But this single trait axis insufficiently captures interspecific differences in water requirements and thermoregulatory capacity and thus sensitivity to climate change. Here, we develop a two‐dimensional trait space of body size and minimum dung moisture content that characterises the combined food and water requirements of large herbivores. From this, we predict that increased spatial homogeneity in water availability in drylands reduces the number of ungulate species that will coexist. But we also predict that extreme droughts will cause the larger, water‐dependent grazers as wildebeest, zebra and buffalo–dominant species in savanna ecosystems – to be replaced by smaller, less water‐dependent species. Subsequently, we explore how other constraints such as predation risk and thermoregulation are connected to this two‐dimensional framework. Our novel framework integrates multiple simultaneous stressors for herbivores and yields an extensive set of testable hypotheses about the expected changes in large herbivore community composition following climate change.     

Climate and the inter‐annual variability of fire in southern Africa: a meta‐analysis using long‐term field data and satellite‐derived burnt area data

Aim This study investigates inter‐annual variability in burnt area in southern Africa and the extent to which climate is responsible for this variation. We compare data from long‐term field sites across the region with remotely sensed burnt area data to test whether it is possible to develop a general model. Location Africa south of the equator. Methods Linear mixed effects models were used to determine the effect of rainfall, seasonality and fire weather in driving variation in fire extent between years, and to test whether the effect of these variables changes across the subcontinent and in areas more and less impacted by human activities. Results A simple model including rainfall and seasonality explained 40% of the variance in burnt area between years across 10 different protected areas on the subcontinent, but this model, when applied regionally, indicated that climate had less impact on year‐to‐year variation in burnt area than would be expected. It was possible to demonstrate that the relative importance of rainfall and seasonality changed as one moved from dry to wetter systems, but most noticeable was the reduction in climatically driven variability of fire outside protected areas. Inter‐annual variability is associated with the occurrence of large fires, and large fires are only found in areas with low human impact. Main conclusions This research gives the first data‐driven analysis of fire–climate interactions in southern Africa. The regional analysis shows that human impact on fire regimes is substantial and acts to limit the effect of climate in driving variation between years. This is in contrast to patterns in protected areas, where variation in accumulated rainfall and the length of the dry season influence the annual area burnt. Global models which assume strong links between fire and climate need to be re‐assessed in systems with high human impact.