Towards the elimination of leprosy in Yunnan,China: A time-series analysis of surveillance data

BackgroundThis study reviews the progress of leprosy elimination in Yunnan, China, over the past 30 years and identifies the challenges for the next stage of the program.Methodology/Principal findingsData were collected from the Leprosy Management Information System in China (LEPMIS). The progress made in the elimination of leprosy between 1990 and 2019 was measured. We defined two time periods, time period 1 (1990–2003) and time period 2 (2004–2019), because multidrug therapy (MDT) was launched for the treatment of leprosy in 1990 and a special fund from the central government was established for leprosy in 2004. During the past 30 years, the number of newly detected leprosy patients in Yunnan has steadily declined. In total, 703 newly detected leprosy patients were reported in 1990, and 353 and 136 cases were reported at the end of 2003 and 2019, respectively. At the end of 1990, 90.7% (117/129) of counties in Yunnan Province were identified as leprosy-endemic counties (>1 case per 100,000 population). By the end of 2003 and 2019, 39.3% (46/117) and 85.5% (100/117) of the leprosy-endemic counties, respectively, had dropped below the elimination threshold. The main challenges are the remaining leprosy-endemic counties, the high rate of cases with a contact history, insufficient early detection, and leprosy cases resulting in physical disability.Conclusions/SignificanceA multifaceted strategy for leprosy elimination in Yunnan Province has been successfully implemented, and remarkable progress has been made in the elimination of leprosy in this area. The priorities for leprosy elimination in the next stage are securing sustainable support and investment from the government, establishing an effective surveillance system, ensuring prompt early detection, providing treatment with MDT, preventing transmission of M. leprae, preventing disability, providing health education, and preventing recurrence of the epidemic situation of leprosy.     

The state of the leprosy epidemic in Yunnan,China 2011–2020: A spatial and spatiotemporal analysis,highlighting areas for intervention

BackgroundDespite public health efforts to reduce the leprosy burden in Yunnan, China, leprosy remains an important public health problem in some specific areas. We analyzed the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution of leprosy in Yunnan, China, and provide data to guide disease prevention and control efforts.Methodology/principal findingsThe surveillance data of newly detected leprosy cases in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020 were extracted from the LEPROSY MANAGEMANT INFORMATION SYSTEM IN CHINA (LEPMIS), and spatial distribution analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and spatiotemporal scanning were performed with ArcGIS 10.6.1, GeoDa 1.8.8, and SaTScan 9.4.3 software, respectively. A total of 1907 newly detected leprosy cases were reported in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020. The new case detection rate (NCDR) decreased from 0.62 in 2011 to 0.25 in 2020, with an annual incidence of 0.41/100,000 population. The proportions of multibacillary (MB) cases, cases in female patients, cases causing grade 2 physical disability (G2D), and cases in pediatric patients were 67.07%, 33.93%, 17.99%, and 2.83%, respectively. The number of counties with an incidence above 1/100,000 population decreased from 30 in 2011 to 8 in 2020. The Moran’s I of leprosy in Yunnan, China, during 2011–2020 ranged from 0.076 to 0.260, indicating the presence of spatial clusters. Local spatial autocorrelation (LSA) analysis showed that high-high cluster areas (hot spots) were mainly distributed in the southeastern, northern, and northwestern regions. Spatiotemporal scanning showed three clusters with high NCDRs. The probably primary clusters, occurring during January 1, 2011–December 31, 2015, covered 11 counties in the southeastern region (RR = 5.046515, LRR = 271.749664, P = 0.000).ConclusionThe number of leprosy cases in Yunnan decreased overall, although some high-NCDR regions remained. Geographic information system (GIS) analysis coupled with spatial analysis indicated regions with leprosy clusters. Continuous leprosy prevention and control strategies in Yunnan Province should be established, and interventions in high-risk regions should be prioritized and further strengthened.     

Trends of Tuberculosis Case Notification and Treatment Outcomes in the Sidama Zone,Southern Ethiopia: Ten-Year Retrospective Trend Analysis in Urban-Rural Settings

BackgroundEthiopia is one of the high tuberculosis (TB) burden countries. An analysis of trends and differentials in case notifications and treatment outcomes of TB may help improve our understanding of the performance of TB control services.MethodsA retrospective trend analysis of TB cases was conducted in the Sidama Zone in southern Ethiopia. We registered all TB cases diagnosed and treated during 2003–2012 from all health facilities in the Sidama Zone, and analysed trends of TB case notification rates and treatment outcomes.ResultsThe smear positive (PTB+) case notification rate (CNR) increased from 55 (95% CI 52.5–58.4) to 111 (95% CI 107.4–114.4) per 10⁵ people. The CNRs of PTB+ in people older than 45 years increased by fourfold, while the mortality of cases during treatment declined from 11% to 3% for smear negative (PTB-) (X²_trend, P<0.001) and from 5% to 2% for PTB+ (X²_trend, P<0.001). The treatment success was higher in rural areas (AOR 1.11; CI 95%: 1.03–1.2), less for PTB- (AOR 0.86; CI 95%: 0.80–0.92) and higher for extra-pulmonary TB (AOR 1.10; CI 95%: 1.02–1.19) compared to PTB+. A higher lost-to-follow up was observed in men (AOR 1.15; CI 95%: 1.06–1.24) and among PTB- cases (AOR 1.14; CI 95%: 1.03–1.25). More deaths occurred in PTB-cases (AOR 1.65; 95% CI: 1.44–1.90) and among cases older than 65 years (AOR 3.86; CI 95%: 2.94–5.10). Lastly, retreatment cases had a higher mortality than new cases (6% vs 3%).ConclusionOver the past decade TB CNRs and treatment outcomes improved, whereas the disparities of disease burden by gender and place of residence reduced and mortality declined. Strategies should be devised to address higher risk groups for poor treatment outcomes.     

Estimated impact of RTS,S/AS01 malaria vaccine allocation strategies in sub-Saharan Africa: A modelling study

BackgroundThe RTS,S/AS01 vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection completed phase III trials in 2014 and demonstrated efficacy against clinical malaria of approximately 36% over 4 years for a 4-dose schedule in children aged 5–17 months. Pilot vaccine implementation has recently begun in 3 African countries. If the pilots demonstrate both a positive health impact and resolve remaining safety concerns, wider roll-out could be recommended from 2021 onwards. Vaccine demand may, however, outstrip initial supply. We sought to identify where vaccine introduction should be prioritised to maximise public health impact under a range of supply constraints using mathematical modelling.Methods and findingsUsing a mathematical model of P. falciparum malaria transmission and RTS,S vaccine impact, we estimated the clinical cases and deaths averted in children aged 0–5 years in sub-Saharan Africa under 2 scenarios for vaccine coverage (100% and realistic) and 2 scenarios for other interventions (current coverage and World Health Organization [WHO] Global Technical Strategy targets). We used a prioritisation algorithm to identify potential allocative efficiency gains from prioritising vaccine allocation among countries or administrative units to maximise cases or deaths averted. If malaria burden at introduction is similar to current levels—assuming realistic vaccine coverage and country-level prioritisation in areas with parasite prevalence >10%—we estimate that 4.3 million malaria cases (95% credible interval [CrI] 2.8–6.8 million) and 22,000 deaths (95% CrI 11,000–35,000) in children younger than 5 years could be averted annually at a dose constraint of 30 million. This decreases to 3.0 million cases (95% CrI 2.0–4.7 million) and 14,000 deaths (95% CrI 7,000–23,000) at a dose constraint of 20 million, and increases to 6.6 million cases (95% CrI 4.2–10.8 million) and 38,000 deaths (95% CrI 18,000–61,000) at a dose constraint of 60 million. At 100% vaccine coverage, these impact estimates increase to 5.2 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 27,000 deaths (95% CrI 14,000–43,000), 3.9 million cases (95% CrI 2.7–6.0 million) and 19,000 deaths (95% CrI 10,000–30,000), and 10.0 million cases (95% CrI 6.7–15.7 million) and 51,000 deaths (95% CrI 25,000–82,000), respectively. Under realistic vaccine coverage, if the vaccine is prioritised sub-nationally, 5.3 million cases (95% CrI 3.5–8.2 million) and 24,000 deaths (95% CrI 12,000–38,000) could be averted at a dose constraint of 30 million. Furthermore, sub-national prioritisation would allow introduction in almost double the number of countries compared to national prioritisation (21 versus 11). If vaccine introduction is prioritised in the 3 pilot countries (Ghana, Kenya, and Malawi), health impact would be reduced, but this effect becomes less substantial (change of <5%) if 50 million or more doses are available. We did not account for within-country variation in vaccine coverage, and the optimisation was based on a single outcome measure, therefore this study should be used to understand overall trends rather than guide country-specific allocation.ConclusionsThese results suggest that the impact of constraints in vaccine supply on the public health impact of the RTS,S malaria vaccine could be reduced by introducing the vaccine at the sub-national level and prioritising countries with the highest malaria incidence.

Alexandra Hogan and colleagues explore strategies to optimize vaccine allocation for maximum public health benefit in the face of potential supply constraints.     

Temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of leprosy: A new challenge for leprosy prevention and control in Zhejiang,China

BackgroundAfter the elimination of leprosy in 1995, there were 10–30 newly detected leprosy cases every year in Zhejiang Province, and the epidemiological characteristics of the newly detected leprosy cases have changed. While most of the newly detected cases came from other provinces in China, not Zhejiang, it brought a new challenge for leprosy prevention and control in post- elimination era in Zhejiang, China. This study was aimed to understand the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics of newly detected leprosy cases, and provide the scientific rationales for the development of leprosy control strategy.MethodsData on the demographic of Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2019 were obtained from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention, and the epidemiological data on leprosy cases newly detected in Zhejiang Province from 2011 to 2019 were obtained from the LEPROSY MANAGEMANT INFORMATION SYSTEM IN CHINA (LEPMIS), and temporal-spatial distributions were described. The geographic information system software—ArcGIS 10.4 was used to draw the statistical maps, and Geoda 1.14.0 was used for local spatial autocorrelation analysis (local Getis coefficient method). Ridley-Jopling classification was used to classify the clinical types into I, TT, BT, BB, BL or LL. Two-group classification system developed by the World Health Organization (WHO) was used and cases were classified into multibacillary (MB) type or paucibacillary (PB) type.ResultsA total of 167 leprosy cases were reported in Zhejiang Province during 2011–2019, including 107 cases in males and 60 in females. The mean age at diagnosis was 37.99±14.81 years, and 94.01% of the cases were detected through the examination at skin-clinics. The number of workers, MB cases, G2D cases were 81 (48.50%), 159 (94.01%), 24 (14.37%) respectively, and the rate of early detection increased from 45.16% in 2011 to 90.91% in 2019. Leprosy cases were reported in all the prefectures of Zhejiang except Zhoushan City. The cases in local population accounted for 23.35% (39 cases), and the cases in floating population (especially coming from high epidemic provinces in China) accounted for 76.65% (128 cases). The annual number of newly detected cases showed a decreasing trend, from 31 cases in 2011 to 11 in 2019. Time of the floating population living in Zhejiang Province ranged from several months to more than 10 years. The annual proportion of new cases with G2D declined from 22.58% in 2011 to 9.09% in 2019. The results of local indicators of autocorrelation (LISA) analysis showed that the high-high areas were mainly concentrated in the middle and northeast of Zhejiang Province, while the low-low areas were in the east and southwest.ConclusionA few scattered cases still can be seen in post-elimination era, and there was a spatial clustering of the newly detected leprosy cases in Zhejiang Province. Most of the cases in Zhejiang Province were from other high epidemic provinces in China, which brought a new challenge for leprosy control and prevention in post- elimination era in Zhejiang, and it is also necessary to strengthen the early detection and standard management of the leprosy cases in floating population in Zhejiang.     

Chronic Conditions and Sleep Problems among Adults Aged 50 years or over in Nine Countries: A Multi-Country Study

BackgroundData on the association between chronic conditions or the number of chronic conditions and sleep problems in low- or middle-income countries is scarce, and global comparisons of these associations with high-income countries have not been conducted.MethodsData on 42116 individuals 50 years and older from nationally-representative samples of the Collaborative Research on Ageing in Europe (Finland, Poland, Spain) and the World Health Organization''s Study on Global Ageing and Adult Health (China, Ghana, India, Mexico, Russia, South Africa) conducted between 2011–2012 and 2007–2010 respectively were analyzed.ResultsThe association between nine chronic conditions (angina, arthritis, asthma, chronic lung disease, depression, diabetes, hypertension, obesity, and stroke) and self-reported severe/extreme sleep problems in the past 30 days was estimated by logistic regression with multiple variables. The age-adjusted prevalence of sleep problems ranged from 2.8% (China) to 17.0% (Poland). After adjustment for confounders, angina (OR 1.75–2.78), arthritis (OR 1.39–2.46), and depression (OR 1.75–5.12) were significantly associated with sleep problems in the majority or all of the countries. Sleep problems were also significantly associated with: asthma in Finland, Spain, and India; chronic lung disease in Poland, Spain, Ghana, and South Africa; diabetes in India; and stroke in China, Ghana, and India. A linear dose-dependent relationship between the number of chronic conditions and sleep problems was observed in all countries. Compared to no chronic conditions, the OR (95%CI) for 1,2,3, and≥4 chronic conditions was 1.41 (1.09–1.82), 2.55 (1.99–3.27), 3.22 (2.52–4.11), and 7.62 (5.88–9.87) respectively in the overall sample.ConclusionsIdentifying co-existing sleep problems among patients with chronic conditions and treating them simultaneously may lead to better treatment outcome. Clinicians should be aware of the high risk for sleep problems among patients with multimorbidity. Future studies are needed to elucidate the best treatment options for comorbid sleep problems especially in developing country settings.     

Risk factors for physical disability in patients with leprosy disease in Yunnan,China: Evidence from a retrospective observational study

BackgroundLeprosy is potentially debilitating. The risk factors related to physical disabilities associated with leprosy disease in Yunnan, China was not clear.Methodology/Principal findingsWe studied 10644 newly detected leprosy patients from Yunnan, China, from 1990 to 2019. Factors associated with Grade 1 (G1D) and Grade 2 (G2D) physical disabilities or overall physical disabilities (combined G1D and G2D) associated with leprosy were analyzed using multinomial and ordinal logistic regression analyses. The following factors were associated with the development of physical disability in these patients with leprosy: delayed diagnosis [odds ratio (OR): 5.652, 4.399, and 2.275; 95% confidence intervals (CIs): 4.516–7.073, 3.714–5.212, and 2.063–2.509; for ≥ 10, 5–10 y, and 2–5 years, respectively], nerve damage (OR: 3.474 and 2.428; 95% CI: 2.843–4.244, and 1.959–3.008; for 2 and 1 damaged nerves, respectively), WHO classification of PB (OR: 1.759; 95% CI: 1.341–2.307), Ridley-Jopling classification (OR: 1.479, 1.438, 1.522 and 1.239; 95% CI: 1.052–2.079, 1.075–1.923, 1.261–1.838, and 1.072–1.431; for TT, BT, BB, and BL when compared with LL, respectively), advanced age (OR: 1.472 and 2.053; 95% CI: 1.106–1.960 and 1.498–2.814; for 15–59 and over 60 years old, respectively), zero skin lesions (OR: 1.916; 95% CI: 1.522–2.413), leprosy reaction (OR: 1.528; 95% CI: 1.195–1.952), rural occupation (OR: 1.364; 95% CI: 1.128–1.650), Han ethnicity (OR: 1.268; 95% CI: 1.159–1.386), and male sex (OR: 1.128; 95% CI: 1.024–1.243).ConclusionsDelayed diagnosis, nerve damage, no skin lesions, WHO and Ridley-Jopling classifications, leprosy reactions, advanced age, rural occupation, Han ethnicity, and male sex were associated with disability in leprosy patients. Identifying risk factors could help to prevent physical disability.     

Birth Outcomes of Latin Americans in Two Countries with Contrasting Immigration Admission Policies: Canada and Spain

Background

We delved into the selective migration hypothesis on health by comparing birth outcomes of Latin American immigrants giving birth in two receiving countries with dissimilar immigration admission policies: Canada and Spain. We hypothesized that a stronger immigrant selection in Canada will reflect more favourable outcomes among Latin Americans giving birth in Canada than among their counterparts giving birth in Spain.

Materials and Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional bi-national comparative study. We analyzed birth data of singleton infants born in Canada (2000–2005) (N = 31,767) and Spain (1998–2007) (N = 150,405) to mothers born in Spanish-speaking Latin American countries. We compared mean birthweight at 37–41 weeks gestation, and low birthweight and preterm birth rates between Latin American immigrants to Canada vs. Spain. Regression analysis for aggregate data was used to obtain Odds Ratios and Mean birthweight differences adjusted for infant sex, maternal age, parity, marital status, and father born in same source country.

Results

Latin American women in Canada had heavier newborns than their same-country counterparts giving birth in Spain, overall [adjusted mean birthweight difference: 101 grams; 95% confidence interval (CI): 98, 104], and within each maternal country of origin. Latin American women in Canada had fewer low birthweight and preterm infants than those giving birth in Spain [adjusted Odds Ratio: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.94 for low birthweight, and 0.88; 95% CI: 0.84, 0.93 for preterm birth, respectively].

Conclusion

Latin American immigrant women had better birth outcomes in Canada than in Spain, suggesting a more selective migration in Canada than in Spain.     

Imported Dengue Cases,Weather Variation and Autochthonous Dengue Incidence in Cairns,Australia

Background

Dengue fever (DF) outbreaks often arise from imported DF cases in Cairns, Australia. Few studies have incorporated imported DF cases in the estimation of the relationship between weather variability and incidence of autochthonous DF. The study aimed to examine the impact of weather variability on autochthonous DF infection after accounting for imported DF cases and then to explore the possibility of developing an empirical forecast system.

Methodology/principal finds

Data on weather variables, notified DF cases (including those acquired locally and overseas), and population size in Cairns were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics. A time-series negative-binomial hurdle model was used to assess the effects of imported DF cases and weather variability on autochthonous DF incidence. Our results showed that monthly autochthonous DF incidences were significantly associated with monthly imported DF cases (Relative Risk (RR):1.52; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.01–2.28), monthly minimum temperature (^oC) (RR: 2.28; 95% CI: 1.77–2.93), monthly relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.21; 95% CI: 1.06–1.37), monthly rainfall (mm) (RR: 0.50; 95% CI: 0.31–0.81) and monthly standard deviation of daily relative humidity (%) (RR: 1.27; 95% CI: 1.08–1.50). In the zero hurdle component, the occurrence of monthly autochthonous DF cases was significantly associated with monthly minimum temperature (Odds Ratio (OR): 1.64; 95% CI: 1.01–2.67).

Conclusions/significance

Our research suggested that incidences of monthly autochthonous DF were strongly positively associated with monthly imported DF cases, local minimum temperature and inter-month relative humidity variability in Cairns. Moreover, DF outbreak in Cairns was driven by imported DF cases only under favourable seasons and weather conditions in the study.     

Intrinsic capacity and its associations with incident dependence and mortality in 10/66 Dementia Research Group studies in Latin America,India, and China: A population-based cohort study

BackgroundThe World Health Organization (WHO) has reframed health and healthcare for older people around achieving the goal of healthy ageing. The recent WHO Integrated Care for Older People (ICOPE) guidelines focus on maintaining intrinsic capacity, i.e., addressing declines in neuromusculoskeletal, vitality, sensory, cognitive, psychological, and continence domains, aiming to prevent or delay the onset of dependence. The target group with 1 or more declines in intrinsic capacity (DICs) is broad, and implementation may be challenging in less-resourced settings. We aimed to inform planning by assessing intrinsic capacity prevalence, by characterising the target group, and by validating the general approach—testing hypotheses that DIC was consistently associated with higher risks of incident dependence and death.Methods and findingsWe conducted population-based cohort studies (baseline, 2003–2007) in urban sites in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, and Venezuela, and rural and urban sites in Peru, Mexico, India, and China. Door-knocking identified eligible participants, aged 65 years and over and normally resident in each geographically defined catchment area. Sociodemographic, behaviour and lifestyle, health, and healthcare utilisation and cost questionnaires, and physical assessments were administered to all participants, with incident dependence and mortality ascertained 3 to 5 years later (2008–2010). In 12 sites in 8 countries, 17,031 participants were surveyed at baseline. Overall mean age was 74.2 years, range of means by site 71.3–76.3 years; 62.4% were female, range 53.4%–67.3%. At baseline, only 30% retained full capacity across all domains. The proportion retaining capacity fell sharply with increasing age, and declines affecting multiple domains were more common. Poverty, morbidity (particularly dementia, depression, and stroke), and disability were concentrated among those with DIC, although only 10% were frail, and a further 9% had needs for care. Hypertension and lifestyle risk factors for chronic disease, and healthcare utilisation and costs, were more evenly distributed in the population. In total, 15,901 participants were included in the mortality cohort (2,602 deaths/53,911 person-years of follow-up), and 12,939 participants in the dependence cohort (1,896 incident cases/38,320 person-years). One or more DICs strongly and independently predicted incident dependence (pooled adjusted subhazard ratio 1.91, 95% CI 1.69–2.17) and death (pooled adjusted hazard ratio 1.66, 95% CI 1.49–1.85). Relative risks were higher for those who were frail, but were also substantially elevated for the much larger sub-groups yet to become frail. Mortality was mainly concentrated in the frail and dependent sub-groups. The main limitations were potential for DIC exposure misclassification and attrition bias.ConclusionsIn this study we observed a high prevalence of DICs, particularly in older age groups. Those affected had substantially increased risks of dependence and death. Most needs for care arose in those with DIC yet to become frail. Our findings provide some support for the strategy of optimising intrinsic capacity in pursuit of healthy ageing. Implementation at scale requires community-based screening and assessment, and a stepped-care intervention approach, with redefined roles for community healthcare workers and efforts to engage, train, and support them in these tasks. ICOPE might be usefully integrated into community programmes for detecting and case managing chronic diseases including hypertension and diabetes.

In a population-based cohort study, Martin J. Prince and colleagues evaluate intrinsic capacity and its associations with incident dependence and mortality in Latin America, India and China.     

Comparative Effectiveness of Hepatic Artery Based Therapies for Unresectable Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Meta-Analysis

BackgroundPatients with unresectable Colorectal Liver Metastases (CRLM) are increasingly being managed using Hepatic Artery Based Therapies (HAT), including Hepatic Arterial Infusion (HAI), Radioembolization (RE), and Transcatheter Arterial Chemoembolization (TACE). Limited data is available on the comparative effectiveness of these options. We hypothesized that outcomes in terms of survival and toxicity were equivalent across the three strategies.MethodsA meta-analysis was performed using a prospectively registered search strategy at PROSPERO (CRD42013003861) that utilized studies from PubMed (2003–2013). Primary outcome was median overall survival (OS). Secondary outcomes were treatment toxicity, tumor response, and conversion of the tumor to resectable. Additional covariates included prior or concurrent systemic therapy.ResultsOf 491 studies screened, 90 were selected for analyses—52 (n = 3,000 patients) HAI, 24 (n = 1,268) RE, 14 (n = 1,038) TACE. The median OS (95% CI) for patients receiving HAT in the first-line were RE 29.4 vs. HAI 21.4 vs. TACE 15.2 months (p = 0.97, 0.69 respectively). For patients failing at least one line of prior systemic therapy, the survival outcomes were TACE 21.3 (20.6–22.4) months vs. HAI 13.2 (12.2–14.2) months vs. RE 10.7 (9.5–12.0). Grade 3–4 toxicity for HAT alone was 40% in the HAI group, 19% in the RE group, and 18% in the TACE groups, which was increased with the addition of systemic chemotherapy. Level 1 evidence was available in 5 studies for HAI, 2 studies for RE and 1 for TACE.ConclusionHAI, RE, and TACE are equally effective in patients with unresectable CRLM with marginal differences in survival.     

Five-Year Incidence of Chronic Kidney Disease (Stage 3-5) and Associated Risk Factors in a Spanish Cohort: The MADIABETES Study

Objective

To evaluate the incidence rate of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) stage 3-5 (persistent decreased kidney function under 60 mL/min per 1.73 m²) among patients with type 2 diabetes over five years, to identify the risk factors associated with CKD, and develop a risk table to predict five-year CKD stage 3-5 risk stratification for clinical use.

Design

The MADIABETES Study is a prospective cohort study of 3,443 outpatients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, sampled from 56 primary health care centers (131 general practitioners) in Madrid (Spain).

Results

The cumulative incidence of CKD stage 3-5 at five-years was 10.23% (95% CI = 9.12–11.44) and the incidence density was 2.07 (95% CI = 1.83–2.33) cases per 1,000 patient-months or 2.48 (95% CI = 2.19–2.79) cases per 100 patient-years. The highest hazard ratio (HR) for developing CKD stage 3-5 was albuminuria ≥300 mg/g (HR = 4.57; 95% CI= 2.46-8.48). Furthermore, other variables with a high HR were age over 74 years (HR = 3.20; 95% CI = 2.13–4.81), a history of Hypertension (HR = 2.02; 95% CI = 1.42–2.89), Myocardial Infarction (HR= 1.72; 95% IC= 1.25–2.37), Dyslipidemia (HR = 1.68; 95% CI 1.30–2.17), duration of diabetes mellitus ≥ 10 years (HR = 1.46; 95% CI = 1.14-1.88) and Systolic Blood Pressure >149 mmHg (HR = 1.52; 95% CI = 1.02–2.24).

Conclusions

After a five-year follow-up, the cumulative incidence of CKD is concordant with rates described in Spain and other countries. Albuminuria ≥ 300 mg/g and age over 74 years were the risk factors more strongly associated with developing CKD (Stage 3-5). Blood Pressure, lipid and albuminuria control could reduce CKD incidence of CKD in patients with T2DM.     

Anomalously warm weather and acute care visits in patients with multiple sclerosis: A retrospective study of privately insured individuals in the US

BackgroundAs the global climate changes in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, weather and temperature are expected to become increasingly variable. Although heat sensitivity is a recognized clinical feature of multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system, few studies have examined the implications of climate change for patients with this disease.Methods and findingsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals with MS ages 18–64 years in a nationwide United States patient-level commercial and Medicare Advantage claims database from 2003 to 2017. We defined anomalously warm weather as any month in which local average temperatures exceeded the long-term average by ≥1.5°C. We estimated the association between anomalously warm weather and MS-related inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department visits using generalized log-linear models. From 75,395,334 individuals, we identified 106,225 with MS. The majority were women (76.6%) aged 36–55 years (59.0%). Anomalously warm weather was associated with increased risk for emergency department visits (risk ratio [RR] = 1.043, 95% CI: 1.025–1.063) and inpatient visits (RR = 1.032, 95% CI: 1.010–1.054). There was limited evidence of an association between anomalously warm weather and MS-related outpatient visits (RR = 1.010, 95% CI: 1.005–1.015). Estimates were similar for men and women, strongest among older individuals, and exhibited substantial variation by season, region, and climate zone. Limitations of the present study include the absence of key individual-level measures of socioeconomic position (i.e., race/ethnicity, occupational status, and housing quality) that may determine where individuals live—and therefore the extent of their exposure to anomalously warm weather—as well as their propensity to seek treatment for neurologic symptoms.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that as global temperatures rise, individuals with MS may represent a particularly susceptible subpopulation, a finding with implications for both healthcare providers and systems.     

Plant-based diets and incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in African Americans: A cohort study

BackgroundPrior studies have documented lower cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among people with a higher adherence to a plant-based dietary pattern. Non-Hispanic black Americans are an understudied group with high burden of CVD, yet studies of plant-based diets have been limited in this population.Methods and findingsWe conducted an analysis of prospectively collected data from a community-based cohort of African American adults (n = 3,635) in the Jackson Heart Study (JHS) aged 21–95 years, living in the Jackson, Mississippi, metropolitan area, US, who were followed from 2000 to 2018. Using self-reported dietary data, we assigned scores to participants’ adherence to 3 plant-based dietary patterns: an overall plant-based diet index (PDI), a healthy PDI (hPDI), and an unhealthy PDI (uPDI). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate associations between plant-based diet scores and CVD incidence and all-cause mortality. Over a median follow-up of 13 and 15 years, there were 293 incident CVD cases and 597 deaths, respectively. After adjusting for sociodemographic characteristics (age, sex, and education) and health behaviors (smoking, alcohol intake, margarine intake, physical activity, and total energy intake), no significant association was observed between plant-based diets and incident CVD for overall PDI (hazard ratio [HR] 1.06, 95% CI 0.78–1.42, p-trend = 0.72), hPDI (HR 1.07, 95% CI 0.80–1.42, p-trend = 0.67), and uPDI (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.71–1.28, p-trend = 0.76). Corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for all-cause mortality risk with overall PDI, hPDI, and uPDI were 0.96 (0.78–1.18), 0.94 (0.76–1.16), and 1.06 (0.86–1.30), respectively. Corresponding HRs (95% CIs) for incident coronary heart disease with overall PDI, hPDI, and uPDI were 1.09 (0.74–1.61), 1.11 (0.76–1.61), and 0.79 (0.52–1.18), respectively. For incident total stroke, HRs (95% CIs) for overall PDI, hPDI, and uPDI were 1.00 (0.66–1.52), 0.91 (0.61–1.36), and 1.26 (0.84–1.89) (p-trend for all tests > 0.05). Limitations of the study include use of self-reported dietary intake, residual confounding, potential for reverse causation, and that the study did not capture those who exclusively consume plant-derived foods.ConclusionsIn this study of black Americans, we observed that, unlike in prior studies, greater adherence to a plant-based diet was not associated with CVD or all-cause mortality.

In a cohort study, Leah J. Weston and colleagues investigate the associations between consumption of plant-based diets and incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in African Americans.     

Retinal Microvascular Abnormalities and Risk of Renal Failure in Asian Populations

BackgroundRetinal microvascular signs may provide insights into the structure and function of small vessels that are associated with renal disease. We examined the relationship of retinal microvascular signs with both prevalent and incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a multi-ethnic Asian population.MethodsA total of 5763 subjects (aged ≥40 years) from two prospective population-based studies (the Singapore Malay Eye Study and the Singapore Prospective Study) were included for the current analysis. Retinopathy was graded using the modified Airlie House classification system. Retinal vascular parameters were measured using computer-assisted programs to quantify the retinal vessel widths (arteriolar and venular caliber) and retinal vascular network (fractal dimension). Data on ESRD was obtained by record linkage with the ESRD cases registered by National Registry of Diseases Office, Singapore. Multi-variable adjusted regression analyses were performed to assess the associations of baseline retinal vascular parameters and prevalent and incident ESRD.ResultsAt baseline, 21(0.36%) persons had prevalent ESRD. During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 33 (0.57%) subjects developed ESRD. In our analyses, retinopathy was associated with prevalent ESRD (multi-variable adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28–8.05) and incident ESRD (multi-variable adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.51, 95%CI: 1.14–5.54). This association was largely seen in person with diabetes (HR, 2.60, 95%CI: 1.01–6.66) and not present in persons without diabetes (HR, 1.65, 95%CI: 0.14–18.98). Retinal arteriolar caliber, retinal venular caliber and retinal vascular fractal dimension were not associated with ESRD.ConclusionRetinopathy signs in persons with diabetes are related to an increased risk of ESRD; however, other microvascular changes in the retina are not associated with ESRD.     

Leprosy perceptions and knowledge in endemic districts in India and Indonesia: Differences and commonalities

BackgroundUnderstanding how knowledge, attitudes and practices regarding leprosy differ in endemic countries can help us develop targeted educational and behavioural change interventions. This study aimed to examine the differences and commonalities in and determinants of knowledge, attitudes, practices and fears regarding leprosy in endemic districts in India and Indonesia.Principle findingsA cross-sectional mixed-methods design was used. Persons affected by leprosy, their close contacts, community members and health workers were included. Through interview-administered questionnaires we assessed knowledge, attitudes, practices and fears with the KAP measure, EMIC-CSS and SDS. In addition, semi-structured interviews and focus group discussions were conducted. The quantitative data were analysed using stepwise multivariate regression. Determinants of knowledge and stigma that were examined included age, gender, participant type, education, occupation, knowing someone affected by leprosy and district. The qualitative data were analysed using open, inductive coding and content analysis.We administered questionnaires to 2344 participants (46% from India, 54% from Indonesia) as an interview. In addition, 110 participants were interviewed in-depth and 60 participants were included in focus group discussions. Knowledge levels were low in both countries: 88% of the participants in India and 90% of the participants in Indonesia had inadequate knowledge of leprosy. In both countries, cause, mode of transmission, early symptoms and contagiousness of leprosy was least known, and treatment and treatability of leprosy was best known. In both countries, health workers had the highest leprosy knowledge levels and community members the highest stigma levels (a mean score of up to 17.4 on the EMIC-CSS and 9.1 on the SDS). Data from the interviews indicated that people were afraid of being infected by leprosy. Local beliefs and misconceptions differed, for instance that leprosy is in the family for seven generations (Indonesia) or that leprosy is a result of karma (India). The determinants of leprosy knowledge and stigma explained 10–29% of the variability in level of knowledge and 3–10% of the variability in level of stigma.ConclusionOur findings show the importance of investigating the perceptions regarding leprosy prior to educational interventions in communities: even though knowledge levels were similar, local beliefs and misconceptions differed per setting. The potential determinants we included in our study explained very little of the variability in level of knowledge and stigma and should be explored further. Detailed knowledge of local knowledge gaps, beliefs and fears can help tailor health education to local circumstances.     

Effect of the Brazilian Conditional Cash Transfer and Primary Health Care Programs on the New Case Detection Rate of Leprosy

Background

Social determinants can affect the transmission of leprosy and its progression to disease. Not much is known about the effectiveness of welfare and primary health care policies on the reduction of leprosy occurrence. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of the Brazilian cash transfer (Bolsa Família Program-BFP) and primary health care (Family Health Program-FHP) programs on new case detection rate of leprosy.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted the study with a mixed ecological design, a combination of an ecological multiple-group and time-trend design in the period 2004–2011 with the Brazilian municipalities as unit of analysis. The main independent variables were the BFP and FHP coverage at the municipal level and the outcome was new case detection rate of leprosy. Leprosy new cases, BFP and FHP coverage, population and other relevant socio-demographic covariates were obtained from national databases. We used fixed-effects negative binomial models for panel data adjusted for relevant socio-demographic covariates. A total of 1,358 municipalities were included in the analysis. In the studied period, while the municipal coverage of BFP and FHP increased, the new case detection rate of leprosy decreased. Leprosy new case detection rate was significantly reduced in municipalities with consolidated BFP coverage (Risk Ratio 0.79; 95% CI  = 0.74–0.83) and significantly increased in municipalities with FHP coverage in the medium (72–95%) (Risk Ratio 1.05; 95% CI  = 1.02–1.09) and higher coverage tertiles (>95%) (Risk Ratio 1.12; 95% CI  = 1.08–1.17).

Conclusions

At the same time the Family Health Program had been effective in increasing the new case detection rate of leprosy in Brazil, the Bolsa Família Program was associated with a reduction of the new case detection rate of leprosy that we propose reflects a reduction in leprosy incidence.