A mixed branch length model of heterotachy improves phylogenetic accuracy

Evolutionary relationships are typically inferred from molecular sequence data using a statistical model of the evolutionary process. When the model accurately reflects the underlying process, probabilistic phylogenetic methods recover the correct relationships with high accuracy. There is ample evidence, however, that models commonly used today do not adequately reflect real-world evolutionary dynamics. Virtually all contemporary models assume that relatively fast-evolving sites are fast across the entire tree, whereas slower sites always evolve at relatively slower rates. Many molecular sequences, however, exhibit site-specific changes in evolutionary rates, called "heterotachy." Here we examine the accuracy of 2 phylogenetic methods for incorporating heterotachy, the mixed branch length model--which incorporates site-specific rate changes by summing likelihoods over multiple sets of branch lengths on the same tree--and the covarion model, which uses a hidden Markov process to allow sites to switch between variable and invariable as they evolve. Under a variety of simple heterogeneous simulation conditions, the mixed model was dramatically more accurate than homotachous models, which were subject to topological biases as well as biases in branch length estimates. When data were simulated with strong versions of the types of heterotachy observed in real molecular sequences, the mixed branch length model was more accurate than homotachous techniques. Analyses of empirical data sets confirmed that the mixed branch length model can improve phylogenetic accuracy under conditions that cause homotachous models to fail. In contrast, the covarion model did not improve phylogenetic accuracy compared with homotachous models and was sometimes substantially less accurate. We conclude that a mixed branch length approach, although not the solution to all phylogenetic errors, is a valuable strategy for improving the accuracy of inferred trees.     

The Lipomycetaceae,a model family for phylogenetic studies

The Lipomycetaceae (Endomycetales) are known from the generaDipodascopsis, Lipomyces andZygozyma with budding anamorphic states inMyxozyma. The family is easily recognized culturally and physiologically but is phenotypically and ecologically extremely diverse. This natural taxon is phylogenetically distinct from the Saccharomycetaceae, but probably related to the Dipodascaceae. The possible evolution of the lipomycetaceous anamorphs is discussed.     

MrBayes 3: Bayesian phylogenetic inference under mixed models

MrBayes 3 performs Bayesian phylogenetic analysis combining information from different data partitions or subsets evolving under different stochastic evolutionary models. This allows the user to analyze heterogeneous data sets consisting of different data types-e.g. morphological, nucleotide, and protein-and to explore a wide variety of structured models mixing partition-unique and shared parameters. The program employs MPI to parallelize Metropolis coupling on Macintosh or UNIX clusters.     

jModelTest: phylogenetic model averaging

jModelTest is a new program for the statistical selection of models of nucleotide substitution based on "Phyml" (Guindon and Gascuel 2003. A simple, fast, and accurate algorithm to estimate large phylogenies by maximum likelihood. Syst Biol. 52:696-704.). It implements 5 different selection strategies, including "hierarchical and dynamical likelihood ratio tests," the "Akaike information criterion," the "Bayesian information criterion," and a "decision-theoretic performance-based" approach. This program also calculates the relative importance and model-averaged estimates of substitution parameters, including a model-averaged estimate of the phylogeny. jModelTest is written in Java and runs under Mac OSX, Windows, and Unix systems with a Java Runtime Environment installed. The program, including documentation, can be freely downloaded from the software section at http://darwin.uvigo.es.     

The finite polygenic mixed model: An alternative formulation for the mixed model of inheritance

This paper presents a mixed model of inheritance with a finite number of polygenic loci. This model leads to a likelihood that can be calculated using efficient algorithms developed for oligogenic models. For comparison, likelihood profiles were obtained for the finite polygenic mixed model, the usual mixed model, with exact and approximate calculations, and for a class D regressive model. The profiles for the finite polygenic mixed model were closest to the profiles for the usual mixed model with exact calculations.     

Maximum-likelihood phylogenetic analysis under a covarion-like model

Here, a model allowing covarion-like evolution of DNA sequences is introduced. In contrast to standard representation of the distribution of evolutionary rates, this model allows the site-specific rate to vary between lineages. This is achieved by adding as few as two parameters to the widely used among-site rate variation model, namely, (1) the proportion of sites undergoing rate changes and (2) the rate of rate change. This model is implemented in the likelihood framework, allowing parameter estimation, comparison of models, and tree reconstruction. An application to ribosomal RNA sequences suggests that covarions (i.e., site-specific rate changes) play an important role in the evolution of these molecules. Neglecting them results in a severe underestimate of the variance of rates across sites. It has, however, little influence on the estimation of ancestral G+C contents obtained from a nonhomogeneous model, or on the resulting inferences about the evolution of thermophyly. This theoretical effort should be useful for the study of protein adaptation, which presumably proceeds in a typical covarion-like manner.     

The analysis of longitudinal data using mixed model L-splines

Summary .   L-splines are a large family of smoothing splines defined in terms of a linear differential operator. This article develops L-splines within the context of linear mixed models and uses the resulting mixed model L-spline to analyze longitudinal data from a grassland experiment. In the spirit of time-series analysis, a periodic mixed model L-spline is developed, which partitions data into a smooth periodic component plus smooth long-term trend.     

Surprisingly extensive mixed phylogenetic and ecological signals among bacterial Operational Taxonomic Units

The lack of a consensus bacterial species concept greatly hampers our ability to understand and organize bacterial diversity. Operational taxonomic units (OTUs), which are clustered on the basis of DNA sequence identity alone, are the most commonly used microbial diversity unit. Although it is understood that OTUs can be phylogenetically incoherent, the degree and the extent of the phylogenetic inconsistency have not been explicitly studied. Here, we tested the phylogenetic signal of OTUs in a broad range of bacterial genera from various phyla. Strikingly, we found that very few OTUs were monophyletic, and many showed evidence of multiple independent origins. Using previously established bacterial habitats as benchmarks, we showed that OTUs frequently spanned multiple ecological habitats. We demonstrated that ecological heterogeneity within OTUs is caused by their phylogenetic inconsistency, and not merely due to ‘lumping’ of taxa resulting from using relaxed identity cut-offs. We argue that ecotypes, as described by the Stable Ecotype Model, are phylogenetically and ecologically more consistent than OTUs and therefore could serve as an alternative unit for bacterial diversity studies. In addition, we introduce QuickES, a new wrapper program for the Ecotype Simulation algorithm, which is capable of demarcating ecotypes in data sets with tens of thousands of sequences.     

Implementation of a Markov model for phylogenetic trees

A recently developed mathematical model for the analysis of phylogenetic trees is applied to comparative data for 48 species. The model represents a return to fundamentals and makes no hypothesis with respect to the reversibility of the process. The species have been analysed in all subsets of three, and a measure of reliability of the results is provided. The numerical results of the computations on 17,296 triples of species are made available on the Internet. These results are discussed and the development of reliable tree structures for several species is illustrated. It is shown that, indeed, the Markov model is capable of considerably more interesting predictions than has been recognized to date.     

Improved harmonic mean estimator for phylogenetic model evidence

Bayesian phylogenetic methods are generating noticeable enthusiasm in the field of molecular systematics. Many phylogenetic models are often at stake, and different approaches are used to compare them within a Bayesian framework. The Bayes factor, defined as the ratio of the marginal likelihoods of two competing models, plays a key role in Bayesian model selection. We focus on an alternative estimator of the marginal likelihood whose computation is still a challenging problem. Several computational solutions have been proposed, none of which can be considered outperforming the others simultaneously in terms of simplicity of implementation, computational burden and precision of the estimates. Practitioners and researchers, often led by available software, have privileged so far the simplicity of the harmonic mean (HM) estimator. However, it is known that the resulting estimates of the Bayesian evidence in favor of one model are biased and often inaccurate, up to having an infinite variance so that the reliability of the corresponding conclusions is doubtful. We consider possible improvements of the generalized harmonic mean (GHM) idea that recycle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations from the posterior, share the computational simplicity of the original HM estimator, but, unlike it, overcome the infinite variance issue. We show reliability and comparative performance of the improved harmonic mean estimators comparing them to approximation techniques relying on improved variants of the thermodynamic integration.     

A mixed relaxed clock model

Over recent years, several alternative relaxed clock models have been proposed in the context of Bayesian dating. These models fall in two distinct categories: uncorrelated and autocorrelated across branches. The choice between these two classes of relaxed clocks is still an open question. More fundamentally, the true process of rate variation may have both long-term trends and short-term fluctuations, suggesting that more sophisticated clock models unfolding over multiple time scales should ultimately be developed. Here, a mixed relaxed clock model is introduced, which can be mechanistically interpreted as a rate variation process undergoing short-term fluctuations on the top of Brownian long-term trends. Statistically, this mixed clock represents an alternative solution to the problem of choosing between autocorrelated and uncorrelated relaxed clocks, by proposing instead to combine their respective merits. Fitting this model on a dataset of 105 placental mammals, using both node-dating and tip-dating approaches, suggests that the two pure clocks, Brownian and white noise, are rejected in favour of a mixed model with approximately equal contributions for its uncorrelated and autocorrelated components. The tip-dating analysis is particularly sensitive to the choice of the relaxed clock model. In this context, the classical pure Brownian relaxed clock appears to be overly rigid, leading to biases in divergence time estimation. By contrast, the use of a mixed clock leads to more recent and more reasonable estimates for the crown ages of placental orders and superorders. Altogether, the mixed clock introduced here represents a first step towards empirically more adequate models of the patterns of rate variation across phylogenetic trees.This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences using rocks and clocks’.     

RAxML-VI-HPC: maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic analyses with thousands of taxa and mixed models

RAxML-VI-HPC (randomized axelerated maximum likelihood for high performance computing) is a sequential and parallel program for inference of large phylogenies with maximum likelihood (ML). Low-level technical optimizations, a modification of the search algorithm, and the use of the GTR+CAT approximation as replacement for GTR+Gamma yield a program that is between 2.7 and 52 times faster than the previous version of RAxML. A large-scale performance comparison with GARLI, PHYML, IQPNNI and MrBayes on real data containing 1000 up to 6722 taxa shows that RAxML requires at least 5.6 times less main memory and yields better trees in similar times than the best competing program (GARLI) on datasets up to 2500 taxa. On datasets > or =4000 taxa it also runs 2-3 times faster than GARLI. RAxML has been parallelized with MPI to conduct parallel multiple bootstraps and inferences on distinct starting trees. The program has been used to compute ML trees on two of the largest alignments to date containing 25,057 (1463 bp) and 2182 (51,089 bp) taxa, respectively. AVAILABILITY: icwww.epfl.ch/~stamatak     

Improving marginal likelihood estimation for Bayesian phylogenetic model selection

The marginal likelihood is commonly used for comparing different evolutionary models in Bayesian phylogenetics and is the central quantity used in computing Bayes Factors for comparing model fit. A popular method for estimating marginal likelihoods, the harmonic mean (HM) method, can be easily computed from the output of a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis but often greatly overestimates the marginal likelihood. The thermodynamic integration (TI) method is much more accurate than the HM method but requires more computation. In this paper, we introduce a new method, steppingstone sampling (SS), which uses importance sampling to estimate each ratio in a series (the "stepping stones") bridging the posterior and prior distributions. We compare the performance of the SS approach to the TI and HM methods in simulation and using real data. We conclude that the greatly increased accuracy of the SS and TI methods argues for their use instead of the HM method, despite the extra computation needed.     

基于统计建模的系统发育谱方法研究

系统发育谱算法作为一种有效的大规模基因组功能注释方法,已经被成功的应用到原核生物基因组的功能注释中去。通过对系统发育谱方法中的一个关键环节——相似谱的聚类进行分析,提出了一种基于统计建模的方法来对相似的系统发育谱进行聚类。实验表明,该方法在保证较高的覆盖率的同时,还有效的提高了算法的整体速度,且当参与建模的系统发育谱的数目越大时,算法的精确度越高。     

A new dynamic null model for phylogenetic community structure

Phylogenies are increasingly applied to identify the mechanisms structuring ecological communities but progress has been hindered by a reliance on statistical null models that ignore the historical process of community assembly. Here, we address this, and develop a dynamic null model of assembly by allopatric speciation, colonisation and local extinction. Incorporating these processes fundamentally alters the structure of communities expected due to chance, with speciation leading to phylogenetic overdispersion compared to a classical statistical null model assuming equal probabilities of community membership. Applying this method to bird and primate communities in South America we show that patterns of phylogenetic overdispersion – often attributed to negative biotic interactions – are instead consistent with a species neutral model of allopatric speciation, colonisation and local extinction. Our findings provide a new null expectation for phylogenetic community patterns and highlight the importance of explicitly accounting for the dynamic history of assembly when testing the mechanisms governing community structure.     

The PX-EM algorithm for fast stable fitting of Henderson's mixed model

This paper presents procedures for implementing the PX-EM algorithm of Liu, Rubin and Wu to compute REML estimates of variance covariance components in Henderson''s linear mixed models. The class of models considered encompasses several correlated random factors having the same vector length e.g., as in random regression models for longitudinal data analysis and in sire-maternal grandsire models for genetic evaluation. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the procedures. Much better results in terms of convergence characteristics (number of iterations and time required for convergence) are obtained for PX-EM relative to the basic EM algorithm in the random regression.