Excess mortality associated with alcohol consumption.

To estimate the excess mortality due to alcohol in England and Wales death rates specific to alcohol consumption that had been derived from five longitudinal studies were applied to the current population divided into categories of alcohol consumption. Because of the J shaped relation between alcohol consumption and death the excess mortality used as a baseline was an alcohol consumption of 1-10 units/week and an adjustment was made for the slight excess mortality of abstainers. The number of excess deaths was obtained by subtracting the number of deaths expected if all the population had the consumption of the lowest risk group; correction for the total observed mortality in the population was made. This resulted in an estimate of 28,000 deaths each year in England and Wales as the excess mortality among people aged 15-74 associated with alcohol consumption.     

Mortality study of pathologists and medical laboratory technicians.

Membership lists of professional bodies were used to establish study populations of British pathologists (1955-73) and medical laboratory technicians (1963-73). The standardised mortality ratio (SMR) for pathologists was 60 and for medical laboratory technicians 67. Twenty-seven of the 310 deaths were due to suicide. These numbers gave SMRs of 250 for pathologists and 243 for medical laboratory technicians. Suicide was the commonest cause of death in female technicians. Access to lethal chemicals at work is a possible factor explaining the high proportion of suicide by poisoning compared with the general population. Suicide rates for pathologists exceed those of all medical practitioners; similary medical laboratory have higher rates than all laboratory technicians. Excess deaths from lymphatic and haemopoietic neoplasms were noted in English male pathologists (observed 8, expected 3-3; P less than 0-01). This difference is not due to Hodgkin''s disease or leukaemia and remains unexplained. No other neoplastic diseases were noted as causing excess mortality in either occupational group but a small, possibly spurious, excess number of deaths was noted for aortic aneurysm in male pathologists (observed 4, expected 1-8).     

Consequences of assessment and intervention among elderly people: a three year randomised controlled trial.

Over three years 285 randomly selected subjects aged 75 years or more and living in a suburb of Copenhagen were visited every three months in their own homes (the intervention group) to assess whether scheduled medically and socially preventive intervention would influence the number of admissions to hospitals or nursing homes, the number of contacts with general practice, or mortality. A randomly selected group of 287 people of the same age and sex were visited during the final three months of the study (the control group). Two hundred and nineteen admissions to hospitals (4884 bed days) were registered for the intervention group compared with 271 (6442 bed days) for the control group. Especially during the second half of the study, a significant reduction in the number of admissions to hospitals was seen in the intervention group. Twenty people in the intervention group and 29 in the control group moved into nursing homes (p greater than 0.05). The corresponding numbers of deaths were 56 and 75 (p less than 0.05). No difference was seen in the number of contacts with general practice. Significantly fewer emergency medical calls, however, were registered for the intervention group. Subjects in the intervention group benefited from the regular visits and the increased distribution of aids and modifications to their homes to which these led. The regular visits probably also produced an important increase in confidence.     

Prognosis in adult asthma: a national study.

Although one million people consult their general practitioners for asthma each year, data on the prognosis of this disease are scarce, particularly in adults. Mortality was studied among 2547 adult asthmatics attending a national sample of 60 general practices between 1970 and 1976; they were compared with a matched group of non-asthmatic patients. Mortality from all causes was significantly raised in the asthmatic cohort (189 deaths v 112 among controls; relative risk 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.3 to 2.0), especially in women (92 v 42 deaths; relative risk 2.2 (1.5 to 3.1)), and in the oldest age group (55-59 years). In both sexes the predominant cause of excess mortality was respiratory disease, particularly asthma (25 v 0 deaths) and chronic obstructive airways disease (37 v 4 deaths; relative risk 8.8 (2.8 to 23)). Overall, 94% of the asthmatic cohort survived the mean follow up period of eight years compared with 96% of the controls. In contrast to previous findings, the risk of death due to malignant neoplasms was not significantly reduced overall (34 v 36 deaths), though the risk was significantly reduced among those aged under 45 years (2 v 10 deaths; relative risk 0.2 (0.02 to 0.9)) and there was a significant trend of lowering of relative risk with younger age (p less than 0.01).     

Nationwide study of decisions concerning the end of life in general practice in The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE--To gain insight into decisions made in general practice about the end of life. DESIGN--Study I: interviews with 405 physicians. Study II: analysis of death certificates with data obtained on 5197 cases in which decisions about the end of life may have been made. Study III: prospective study with doctors from study I: questionnaires used to collect information about 2257 deaths. The information was representative for all deaths in the Netherlands. RESULTS--Over two fifths of all patients in the Netherlands die at home. General practitioners took fewer decisions about the end of life than hospital doctors and doctors in nursing homes (34%, 40%, and 56% of all dying patients, respectively). Specifically, decisions to withhold or withdraw treatment to prolong life were taken less often. Euthanasia or assisted suicide, however, was performed in 3.2% of all deaths in general practice compared with 1.4% in hospital practice. In over half of the cases concerning pain relief or non-treatment general practitioners did not discuss the decision with the patient, mostly because of incapacity of the patient, but in 20% of cases for "paternalistic" reasons. Older general practitioners discussed such decisions less often with their patients. Colleagues were consulted more often if the general practitioner worked in group practice. CONCLUSION--Differences in work situation between general practitioners and hospital doctors and differences between the group of general practitioners contribute to differences in the number and type of decisions about the end of life as well as in the decision making process.     

New Findings for Maternal Mortality Age Patterns: Aggregated Results for 38 Countries

Background

With recent results showing a global decline in overall maternal mortality during the last two decades and with the target date for achieving the Millennium Development Goals only four years away, the question of how to continue or even accelerate the decline has become more pressing. By knowing where the risk is highest as well as where the numbers of deaths are greatest, it may be possible to re-direct resources and fine-tune strategies for greater effectiveness in efforts to reduce maternal mortality.

Methods

We aggregate data from 38 Demographic and Health Surveys that included a maternal mortality module and were conducted in 2000 or later to produce maternal mortality ratios, rates, and numbers of deaths by five year age groups, separately by residence, region, and overall mortality level.

Findings

The age pattern of maternal mortality is broadly similar across regions, type of place of residence, and overall level of maternal mortality. A “J” shaped curve, with markedly higher risk after age 30, is evident in all groups. We find that the excess risk among adolescents is of a much lower magnitude than is generally assumed. The oldest age groups appear to be especially resistant to change. We also find evidence of extremely elevated risk among older mothers in countries with high levels of HIV prevalence.

Conclusions

The largest number of deaths occurs in the age groups from 20-34, largely because those are the ages at which women are most likely to give birth so efforts directed at this group would most effectively reduce the number of deaths. Yet equity considerations suggest that efforts also be directed toward those most at risk, i.e., older women and adolescents. Because women are at risk each time they become pregnant, fulfilling the substantial unmet need for contraception is a cross-cutting strategy that can address both effectiveness and equity concerns.     

Increased Respiratory Disease Mortality at a Microwave Popcorn Production Facility with Worker Risk of Bronchiolitis Obliterans

Background

Bronchiolitis obliterans, an irreversible lung disease, was first associated with inhalation of butter flavorings (diacetyl) in workers at a microwave popcorn company. Excess rates of lung-function abnormalities were related to cumulative diacetyl exposure. Because information on potential excess mortality would support development of permissible exposure limits for diacetyl, we investigated respiratory-associated mortality during 2000–2011 among current and former workers at this company who had exposure to flavorings and participated in cross-sectional surveys conducted between 2000–2003.

Methods

We ascertained workers'' vital status through a Social Security Administration search. Causes of death were abstracted from death certificates. Because bronchiolitis obliterans is not coded in the International Classification of Disease 10^th revision (ICD-10), we identified respiratory mortality decedents with ICD-10 codes J40–J44 which encompass bronchitis (J40), simple and mucopurulent chronic bronchitis (J41), unspecified chronic bronchitis (J42), emphysema (J43), and other chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (J44). We calculated expected number of deaths and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) to determine if workers exposed to diacetyl experienced greater respiratory mortality than expected.

Results

We identified 15 deaths among 511 workers. Based on U.S. population estimates, 17.39 deaths were expected among these workers (SMR = 0.86; CI:0.48-1.42). Causes of death were available for 14 decedents. Four deaths among production and flavor mixing workers were documented to have a multiple cause of ‘other COPD’ (J44), while 0.98 ‘other COPD’-associated deaths were expected (SMR = 4.10; CI:1.12–10.49). Three of the 4 ‘other COPD’-associated deaths occurred among former workers and workers employed before the company implemented interventions reducing diacetyl exposure in 2001.

Conclusion

Workers at the microwave popcorn company experienced normal rates of all-cause mortality but higher rates of COPD-associated mortality, especially workers employed before the company reduced diacetyl exposure. The demonstrated excess in COPD-associated mortality suggests continued efforts to lower flavoring exposure are prudent.     

Implications of armed conflict for maternal and child health: A regression analysis of data from 181 countries for 2000–2019

BackgroundArmed conflicts have major indirect health impacts in addition to the direct harms from violence. They create enduring political instability, destabilise health systems, and foster negative socioeconomic and environmental conditions—all of which constrain efforts to reduce maternal and child mortality. The detrimental impacts of conflict on global maternal and child health are not robustly quantified. This study assesses the association between conflict and maternal and child health globally.Methods and findingsData for 181 countries (2000–2019) from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and World Bank were analysed using panel regression models. Primary outcomes were maternal, under-5, infant, and neonatal mortality rates. Secondary outcomes were delivery by a skilled birth attendant and diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus (DPT) and measles vaccination coverage. Models were adjusted for 10 confounders, country and year fixed effects, and conflict lagged by 1 year. Further lagged associations up to 10 years post-conflict were tested. The number of excess deaths due to conflict was estimated. Out of 3,718 country–year observations, 522 (14.0%) had minor conflicts and 148 (4.0%) had wars. In adjusted models, conflicts classified as wars were associated with an increase in maternal mortality of 36.9 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births (95% CI 1.9–72.0; 0.3 million excess deaths [95% CI 0.2 million–0.4 million] over the study period), an increase in infant mortality of 2.8 per 1,000 live births (95% CI 0.1–5.5; 2.0 million excess deaths [95% CI 1.6 million–2.5 million]), a decrease in DPT vaccination coverage of 4.9% (95% CI 1.5%–8.3%), and a decrease in measles vaccination coverage of 7.3% (95% CI 2.7%–11.8%). The long-term impacts of war were demonstrated by associated increases in maternal mortality observed for up to 7 years, in under-5 mortality for 3–5 years, in infant mortality for up to 8 years, in DPT vaccination coverage for up to 3 years, and in measles vaccination coverage for up to 2 years. No evidence of association between armed conflict and neonatal mortality or delivery by a skilled birth attendant was found. Study limitations include the ecological study design, which may mask sub-national variation in conflict intensity, and the quality of the underlying data.ConclusionsOur analysis indicates that armed conflict is associated with substantial and persistent excess maternal and child deaths globally, and with reductions in key measures that indicate reduced availability of organised healthcare. These findings highlight the importance of protecting women and children from the indirect harms of conflict, including those relating to health system deterioration and worsening socioeconomic conditions.

Mohammed Jawad and co-workers report on a global analysis of maternal and child health outcomes in situations of armed conflict.     

Excess mortality associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal, 1980 to 2004

Background

Influenza epidemics have a substantial impact on human health, by increasing the mortality from pneumonia and influenza, respiratory and circulatory diseases, and all causes. This paper provides estimates of excess mortality rates associated with influenza virus circulation for 7 causes of death and 8 age groups in Portugal during the period of 1980–2004.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compiled monthly mortality time series data by age for all-cause mortality, cerebrovascular diseases, ischemic heart diseases, diseases of the respiratory system, chronic respiratory diseases, pneumonia and influenza. We also used a control outcome, deaths from injuries. Age- and cause-specific baseline mortality was modelled by the ARIMA approach; excess deaths attributable to influenza were calculated by subtracting expected deaths from observed deaths during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza was associated with a seasonal average of 24.7 all-cause excess deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, approximately 90% of which were among seniors over 65 yrs. Excess mortality was 3–6 fold higher during seasons dominated by the A(H3N2) subtype than seasons dominated by A(H1N1)/B. High excess mortality impact was also seen in children under the age of four years. Seasonal excess mortality rates from all the studied causes of death were highly correlated with each other (Pearson correlation range, 0.65 to 0.95, P<0.001) and with seasonal rates of influenza-like-illness (ILI) among seniors over 65 years (Pearson correlation rho>0.64, P<0.05). By contrast, there was no correlation with excess mortality from injuries.

Conclusions/Significance

Our excess mortality approach is specific to influenza virus activity and produces influenza-related mortality rates for Portugal that are similar to those published for other countries. Our results indicate that all-cause excess mortality is a robust indicator of influenza burden in Portugal, and could be used to monitor the impact of influenza epidemics in this country. Additional studies are warranted to confirm these findings in other settings.     

Long-term outcome of patients with neurotic illness in general practice.

OBJECTIVE--To determine the 11 year outcome of neurotic disorder in general practice. DESIGN--Cohort study over 11 years. SETTING--Two general practices in Warwickshire England. SUBJECTS--100 patients selected to be representative of those identified nationally by general practitioners as having neurotic disorders. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality, morbidity, and use of health services. RESULTS--At 11 years 87 subjects were traced. The 11 year standardised mortality ratio was 173 (95% confidence interval 164 to 200). 47 were cases on the general health questionnaire, 32 had a relapsing or chronic psychiatric course, and 49 a relapsing or chronic physical course. Treatment for psychiatric illness was mainly drugs. The mean number of consultations per year was 10.8 (median 8.7). A persistent psychiatric diagnosis at one year follow up was associated with high attendance ( > 12 visits a year for 11 years) at follow up after age, sex, and physical illness were adjusted for. Severity of psychiatric illness (general health questionnaire score) at outset predicted general health questionnaire score at 11 year follow up, course of psychiatric illness, and high consultation rate. CONCLUSION--These data support the view that a neurotic illness can become chronic and is associated with raised mortality from all causes and high use of services. Such patients need effective intervention, particularly those with a more severe illness who do not recover within one year.     

Mortality and displaced mortality during heat waves in the Czech Republic

The aims of this study were to assess impacts of hot summer periods on mortality in the Czech Republic and to quantify the size of the short-term displacement effect which resulted in lower than expected mortality after heat waves. The analysis covered the period 1982–2000 when several extraordinarily hot summers occurred in central Europe. Daily total all-cause mortality and mortality due to cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in the entire population of the Czech Republic (approximately 10 million inhabitants) were examined. The daily death counts were standardized to account for the long-term decline in mortality and the seasonal and weekly cycles. Heat-related mortality is better expressed if 1-day lag after temperature is considered compared to the unlagged relationship. With the 1-day lag, both excess total mortality and excess CVD mortality were positive during all 17 heat waves, and in 14 (12) heat waves the increase in total (CVD) mortality was statistically significant (P=0.05). The mean relative rise in total mortality during heat waves was 13%. The response was greater in females than males and similar regardless of whether total or CVD mortality was used. The largest relative increases, exceeding 20% in both total and CVD mortality, were associated with heat waves which occurred in early summer (the first half of July 1984 and June 1994). The mortality displacement effect played an important role since mortality tended to be lower than expected after hot periods. The mean net mortality change due to heat waves was estimated to be about a 1% increase in the number of deaths. The large relative increases during some heat waves were particularly noteworthy since the study (in contrast to most analyses of the heat stress/mortality relationship) was not restricted to an urban area and/or an elderly population.     

Studies of Male Survivors of Myocardial Infarction: IX. Mortality Experience and Insurability

The mortality of a group of Canadians who survived myocardial infarction for at least three months was compared with the mortality of medically selected lives insured in Canada at standard rates. The results were expressed as the ratio of the actual deaths incurred in the infarction group to the deaths expected according to the insured table. There were 120 men, approximately 25 in each decade from the fourth to the eighth inclusive, with no condition other than coronary disease which might affect survival. The severity and number of infarcts did not influence selection.Calculating from the date of entry into the study the mortality ratio after 10 years was 530%. Calculating from the date of first infarction, the mortality ratio from 0 to five years was 980%, from six to 10 years 510% and after 10 years 320%. The mortality ratio was greatest in the fourth decade, 9400%, and decreased progressively: fifth, 2400%; sixth, 1300%; seventh, 400%; eighth, 230%. In the younger groups the high mortality ratios were due to the small number of expected deaths at young ages, not to an increase in the absolute number of actual deaths. In each age group the mortality ratio decreased with time but remained substantially increased even after 10 years. The mortality experience of this coronary group was worse than that of more rigidly selected, insured coronary groups.     

The potential effects of climate change on winter mortality in England and Wales

In Britain death rates from several important causes, particularly circulatory and respiratory diseases, rise markedly during the colder winter months. This close association between temperature and mortality suggests that climate change as a result of global warming may lead to a future reduction in excess winter deaths. This paper gives a brief introductory review of the literature on the links between cold conditions and health, and statistical models are subsequently developed of the associations between temperature and monthly mortality rates for the years 1968 to 1988 for England and Wales. Other factors, particularly the occurrence of influenza epidemics, are also taken into account. Highly significant negative associations were found between temperature and death rates from all causes and from chronic bronchitis, pneumonia, ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease. The statistical models developed from this analysis were used to compare death rates for current conditions with those that might be expected to occur in a future warmer climate. The results indicate that the higher temperatures predicted for 2050 might result in nearly 9000 fewer winter deaths each year with the largest contribution being from mortality from ischaemic heart disease. However, these preliminary estimates might change when further research is able to make into account a number of additional factors affecting the relationship between mortality and climate.     

Mortality of workers at the Sellafield plant of British Nuclear Fuels.

The mortality of all 14,327 people who were known to have been employed at the Sellafield plant of British Nuclear Fuels at any time between the opening of the site in 1947 and 31 December 1975 was studied up to the end of 1983. The vital state of 96% of the workers was traced satisfactorily and 2277 were found to have died, 572 (25%) from cancer. On average the workers suffered a mortality from all causes that was 2% less than that of the general population of England and Wales and 9% less than that of the population of Cumberland (the area in which the plant is sited). Their mortality from cancers of all kinds was 5% less than that of England and Wales and 3% less than that of Cumberland. In the five years after their first employment Sellafield workers had an overall mortality that was 70% of that of England and Wales, probably due to healthier members of the population being selected for employment. Raised death rates from cancers of several specific sites were found, but only for those of ill defined and secondary sites was the excess statistically significant (30 observed, 19.7 expected). For cancers of the liver and gall bladder there was a significant deficit of deaths (four observed, 10.5 expected). Workers in areas of the plant where radiation exposure was likely were issued with dosimeters to measure their external exposure to ionising radiations. Personal dose records were maintained for workers who entered such areas other than infrequently. Workers with personal dose records ("radiation" workers) had lower death rates from all causes combined than other workers but the death rates from cancer in the two groups were similar. Compared with the general population radiation workers had statistically significant deficits of liver and gall bladder cancer, lung cancer, and Hodgkin''s disease. There were excesses of deaths from myeloma (seven observed, 4.2 expected) and prostatic cancer (19 observed, 15.8 expected) but these were not significant and there was no evidence of an excess of leukaemia (10 deaths observed, 12.2 expected) or cancer of the pancreas (15 observed, 17.8 expected). Non-radiation workers had a significant deficit of leukaemia (one death observed, 5.1 expected) and a significant excess of cancers of ill defined and secondary sites (13 deaths observed, 5.8 expected). For no type of cancer was the ratio of observed to expected deaths significantly different between radiation and non-radiation workers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)     

Cognition problems during rehabilitation of stroke patients in a nursing home

In many regions in the Netherlands the care for stroke patients is organised in a coordinated stroke service. Within these stroke services, each year more patients are referred to nursing homes for a period of rehabilitation. A stroke leads to lasting cognitive and emotional consequences in more than half of the stroke patients. These consequences interfere with the daily life of the patients and their caregivers. Due to the nature and severity of these problems specific care is needed in the nursing home. In the present article a procedure for cognitive screening in a nursing home is described and data of a large group of patients are presented. These data clearly show the magnitude of the cognitive problems: high percentages of impairments are found in many cognitive domains. In the discussion therefore arguments are given for specialised care - assessment as well as treatment - in the nursing home for stroke patients with cognitive deficits.     

Late deaths and survival after childhood cancer: implications for cure.

OBJECTIVES--To investigate causes of death and survival in subjects who had survived at least five years after diagnosis of childhood cancer; to compare observed mortality with that expected in the general population; and to compare results with a corresponding cohort diagnosed earlier. DESIGN--Retrospective cohort study. SETTING--Population based National Register of Childhood Tumours. SUBJECTS--9080 five year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed in Britain during 1971-85, of whom 793 had died. Comparison with corresponding cohort diagnosed during 1940-70. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Cause of death established from all available sources of information (including hospital and general practitioner records and postmortem reports) and underlying cause of death coded on death certificate. RESULTS--Of the 781 deaths for which sufficient information was available, death was attributed to recurrent tumour in 578 (74%) cases, treatment related effect in 121 (15%), second primary tumour in 52 (7%), and other causes in 30 (4%). Comparison of observed mortality with that expected in the general population indicated a fourfold excess of deaths from non-neoplastic causes. The risk of dying of recurrent tumour in the next 10 years after surviving five years from diagnosis during 1940-70 and 1971-85 fell from 12% to 8%. The risk of dying from a treatment related effect increased slightly from 1% to 2%. CONCLUSION--Improvements in five year survival after childhood cancer have been accompanied by a reduction in risk of dying from recurrent tumour during the subsequent 10 years and by a slight increase in risk of dying from treatment related effects. The results provide information relevant to decisions concerning balance between effective treatments and their potentially harmful effects.     

COVID-19 and excess mortality in the United States: A county-level analysis

BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) excess deaths refer to increases in mortality over what would normally have been expected in the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several prior studies have calculated excess deaths in the United States but were limited to the national or state level, precluding an examination of area-level variation in excess mortality and excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. In this study, we take advantage of county-level variation in COVID-19 mortality to estimate excess deaths associated with the pandemic and examine how the extent of excess mortality not assigned to COVID-19 varies across subsets of counties defined by sociodemographic and health characteristics.Methods and findingsIn this ecological, cross-sectional study, we made use of provisional National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data on direct COVID-19 and all-cause mortality occurring in US counties from January 1 to December 31, 2020 and reported before March 12, 2021. We used data with a 10-week time lag between the final day that deaths occurred and the last day that deaths could be reported to improve the completeness of data. Our sample included 2,096 counties with 20 or more COVID-19 deaths. The total number of residents living in these counties was 319.1 million. On average, the counties were 18.7% Hispanic, 12.7% non-Hispanic Black, and 59.6% non-Hispanic White. A total of 15.9% of the population was older than 65 years. We first modeled the relationship between 2020 all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality across all counties and then produced fully stratified models to explore differences in this relationship among strata of sociodemographic and health factors. Overall, we found that for every 100 deaths assigned to COVID-19, 120 all-cause deaths occurred (95% CI, 116 to 124), implying that 17% (95% CI, 14% to 19%) of excess deaths were ascribed to causes of death other than COVID-19 itself. Our stratified models revealed that the percentage of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 was substantially higher among counties with lower median household incomes and less formal education, counties with poorer health and more diabetes, and counties in the South and West. Counties with more non-Hispanic Black residents, who were already at high risk of COVID-19 death based on direct counts, also reported higher percentages of excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19. Study limitations include the use of provisional data that may be incomplete and the lack of disaggregated data on county-level mortality by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and sociodemographic and health characteristics.ConclusionsIn this study, we found that direct COVID-19 death counts in the US in 2020 substantially underestimated total excess mortality attributable to COVID-19. Racial and socioeconomic inequities in COVID-19 mortality also increased when excess deaths not assigned to COVID-19 were considered. Our results highlight the importance of considering health equity in the policy response to the pandemic.

Andrew Stokes and co-workers report a county-level analysis of excess deaths owing to COVID-19 in the United States.     

Long-term survival of patients with breast cancer: a study of the curability of the disease.

A retrospective analysis was made of 3878 cases of breast carcinoma first seen in Edinburgh from 1954 to 1964. During this time there was a policy to treat breast cancer by simple mastectomy and x-ray therapy, and over 90% of cases classified as international stages I and II were so treated. The mortality in these women was compared with that in an equivalent normal population using Scottish national age-specific death rates. For every year of follow-up within 20 years of initial treatment there was an excess mortality from all causes. There was an overall excess mortality of 58% among patients with breast cancer 15-20 years after initial treatment, and 20 times more deaths occurred in this period from breast cancer than in a normal population. For patients disease-free after 15 years there was still a 28% excess mortality from all causes. Factors known to be of major prognostic significance for five-year survivorship had less influence than might have been expected when the ratio of observed to expected deaths was considered for longer periods of follow-up. The effect of clinical staging (I, II, or III), though initially marked, largely disappeared by the 10th year of follow-up, and after allowing for age there was no evidence beyond 10 years of an effect on survival of the original stage of the disease. Similarly, the effect of tumour size on survival disappeared after 10 years. Women who were premenopausal at presentation still had a significant excess of deaths in the fourth quinquennium of follow-up. In the menopausal and postmenopausal groups combined there was still a small non-significant excess of deaths from all causes after 15 years but this almost disappeared when patients who had already relapsed were excluded. In terms of overall mortality only patients who have undergone the menopause before presentation and who are disease-free 15 years after primary treatment may prove to be cured by conventional techniques such as simple mastectomy and postoperative radiotherapy.     

Postmarketing surveillance of the safety of cimetidine: mortality during second,third, and fourth years of follow up.

A previous report analysed the pattern of mortality during the first year of follow up among 9928 patients taking cimetidine who were recruited to a postmarketing drug surveillance study in Glasgow, Nottingham, Oxford, and Portsmouth. A further analysis has now been conducted extending the period of follow up to four years. The 12 month report noted that cimetidine was being given, knowingly or unknowingly, in the late stages of many diseases and also to counter the adverse gastric effects of other drugs used in the treatment of serious disorders. This finding was underlined by a steady fall in the excess death rate among cimetidine users with increasing length of follow up, such that by the fourth year the pattern of observed deaths was not much different from that expected on the basis of national rates. Some excess of observed over expected deaths from gastric cancer, lung cancer, and urinary disorders was still apparent after four years of follow up, but there was no evidence that cimetidine was responsible. Indeed, no fatal disorder emerged as being associated with cimetidine during the follow up period. Deaths from the complications of disease related to gastric acid occurred in only 38 of the 9928 subjects over the four years. These findings provide further evidence of the safety of cimetidine.