Weather Variability, Sunspots, and the Blooms of Cyanobacteria

The roles of weather variability and sunspots in the occurrence of cyanobacteria blooms, were investigated using cyanobacteria cell data collected from the Fred Haigh Dam, Queensland, Australia. Time series generalized linear model and classification and regression tree (CART) model were used in the analysis. Data on notified cell numbers of cyanobacteria and weather variables over the periods 2001 and 2005 were provided by the Australian Department of Natural Resources and Water, and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. The results indicate that monthly minimum temperature (relative risk [RR]: 1.13, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02–1.25) and rainfall (RR: 1.11; 95% CI: 1.03–1.20) had a positive association, but relative humidity (RR: 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91–0.98) and wind speed (RR: 0.90; 95% CI: 0.82–0.98) were negatively associated with the cyanobacterial numbers, after adjustment for seasonality and auto-correlation. The CART model showed that the cyanobacteria numbers were best described by an interaction between minimum temperature, relative humidity, and sunspot numbers. When minimum temperature exceeded 18°C and relative humidity was under 66%, the number of cyanobacterial cells rose by 2.15-fold. We conclude that weather variability and sunspot activity may affect cyanobacteria blooms in dams.     

The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk-management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.     

Temperature modifies the health effects of particulate matter in Brisbane, Australia

A few epidemiological studies have examined whether there was an interactive effect between temperature and ambient particulate matter on cardiorespiratory morbidity and mortality, but the results were inconsistent. The present study used three time-series approaches to explore whether maximum temperature modified the impact of ambient particulate matter less than 10 μm in diameter (PM₁₀) on daily respiratory hospital admissions, cardiovascular hospital admissions, respiratory emergency visits, cardiovascular emergency visits, non-external cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in Brisbane between 1996 and 2001. The analytical approaches included a bivariate response surface model, a non-stratification parametric model and a stratification parametric model. Results show that there existed a statistically significant interaction between PM₁₀ and temperature on most health outcomes at various lags. PM₁₀ exhibited more adverse health effects on warm days than cold days. The choice of the degree of freedom for smoothers to adjust for confounders and the selection of arbitrary cut-offs for temperature affected the interaction estimates to a certain extent, but did not change the overall conclusion. The results imply that it is important to control and reduce the emission of air particles in Brisbane, particularly when temperature increases.     

Mortality and cancer incidence in women with extra X chromosomes: a cohort study in Britain

About one woman in 1,000 has an extra X chromosome, but such women have no recognised characteristic somatic features and little is known about their long-term health and cancer risks. We conducted a cohort study of mortality and cancer incidence in 542 women diagnosed with X polysomy at 25 cytogenetic centres in Britain since 1959. Fifty-nine deaths occurred during follow-up to mid-2004. Mortality was significantly raised (standardised mortality ratio (SMR) = 2.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.9–3.2)), with excess deaths due particularly to cardiovascular disease (SMR = 2.5 (95% CI 1.5–3.8)) and respiratory disease (SMR = 4.0 (95% CI 1.7–7.9)). Risks of cancer incidence and cancer mortality overall were not raised, but there was significantly raised mortality from non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL) (SMR = 10.4 (95% CI 1.3–37.6); based on 2 cases). The data indicate that mortality in women diagnosed with X polysomy is considerably raised. The raised risk of NHL is seen also in males with more than one X chromosome, and hence although unexpected and based on small numbers, it might indicate the action of a gene on the X chromosome, possibly in the pseudoautosomal region, that escapes X-inactivation.On behalf of the UK clinical cytogenetics group     

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background

Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.

Method

Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day''s mean temperature minus the previous day''s mean.

Results

In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.

Conclusion

A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.     

Human mortality seasonality in Castile-León, Spain, between 1980 and 1998: the influence of temperature, pressure and humidity

This study was carried out in the region of Castile and Leon, Spain, from 1980 to 1998 and analyzes the relationship between the number of monthly deaths caused by cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases and three meteorological variables: temperature, pressure and humidity. One of the innovations in this study is the application of principal component analysis in a way that differs from its usual application: one single series representing the whole region was constructed for each meteorological variable from the series of eight weather stations. Annual and seasonal mortality trends were also studied. Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of death in Castile and Leon. The mortality related to cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive systems shows a statistically significant rising trend across the study period (an annual increase of 6, 16 and 4‰, respectively). The pressure at which mortality is lowest is approximately the same for all causes of death (about 915 hPa), but temperature values vary greatly (16.8–19.7°C for the mean, 10.9–18.1°C for the minimum, and 24.1–27.2°C for the maximum temperature). The most comfortable temperatures for patients with cardiovascular diseases (16.8°C) are apparently lower than those for patients with respiratory diseases (18.1°C), which are, in turn, lower than in the case of diseases of the digestive system (19.7°C). Finally, the optimal humidity for patients with respiratory diseases is the lowest (24%) among the diseases, and the highest (51%) corresponds to diseases of the digestive system, while the optimal relative humidity for the cardiovascular system is 45%.     

Temperature, air pollution and total mortality during summers in Sydney, 1994–2004

This study investigated the effect of temperature and air pollutants on total mortality in summers in Sydney, Australia. Daily data on weather variables, mortality and air pollution for the Sydney metropolitan area from 1 January 1994 to 31 December 2004 were supplied by Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Bureau of Statistics, and Environment Protection Agency of New South Wales, respectively. We examined the association of total mortality with weather indicators and air pollution using generalised additive models (GAMs). A time-series classification and regression tree (CART) model was developed to explore the interaction effects of temperature and air pollution that impacted on mortality. Our results show that the average increase in total daily mortality was 0.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.6-1.3%] and 22% (95% CI: 6.4-40.5%) for a 1 degrees C increase in daily maximum temperature and 1 part per hundred million (pphm) increase in daily average concentration of sulphur dioxide (SO(2)), respectively. Time-series CART results show that maximum temperature and SO(2) on the current day had significant interaction effects on total mortality. There were 7.3% and 12.1% increases in daily average mortality when maximum temperature was over 32 degrees C and mean SO(2) exceeded 0.315 pphm, respectively. Daily maximum temperature was statistically significantly associated with daily deaths in Sydney during summers between 1994 and 2004. Elevated daily maximum temperature combined with high SO(2) concentrations appeared to have contributed to the increased mortality observed in Sydney during this period.     

Assessment of Heat-Related Health Impacts in Brisbane,Australia: Comparison of Different Heatwave Definitions

Background

There is no global definition of a heatwave because local acclimatisation and adaptation influence the impact of extreme heat. Even at a local level there can be multiple heatwave definitions, based on varying temperature levels or time periods. We investigated the relationship between heatwaves and health outcomes using ten different heatwave definitions in Brisbane, Australia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used daily data on climate, air pollution, and emergency hospital admissions in Brisbane between January 1996 and December 2005; and mortality between January 1996 and November 2004. Case-crossover analyses were used to assess the relationship between each of the ten heatwave definitions and health outcomes. During heatwaves there was a statistically significant increase in emergency hospital admissions for all ten definitions, with odds ratios ranging from 1.03 to 1.18. A statistically significant increase in the odds ratios of mortality was also found for eight definitions. The size of the heat-related impact varied between definitions.

Conclusions/Significance

Even a small change in the heatwave definition had an appreciable effect on the estimated health impact. It is important to identify an appropriate definition of heatwave locally and to understand its health effects in order to develop appropriate public health intervention strategies to prevent and mitigate the impact of heatwaves.     

Thermophilic protease-producing Geobacillus from Buranga hot springs in Western Uganda

Two proteolytic thermophilic aerobic bacterial strains, PA-9 and PA-5, were isolated from Buranga hot springs in western Uganda. The cells were rods, approximately 10–12 μm in length and 3 μm in width. Isolate PA-9 grew at between 38°C and 68°C (optimum, 62°C), and PA-5 grew at between 37°C and 72°C (optimum, 60°C). Both isolates grew optimally at pH 7.5–8.5. Their 16S rRNA gene sequences indicated that they belong to the newly described genus Geobacillus. Zymogram analysis of the crude enzyme extracts revealed the presence of two extracellular proteases for isolate PA-5, and at least eight for isolate PA-9. The optimum temperature and pH for casein-degrading activity were 70°C, pH 6.5 for isolate PA-9, but caseinolytic activity could also be observed at 2°C. In the case of isolate PA-5, optimal activity was observed over a temperature and pH range of 50–70°C and pH 5–10, respectively. Received: 26 November 2001 / Accepted: 12 December 2001     

Long-range ozone transport and its impact on respiratory and cardiovascular health in the north of Portugal

Ozone dynamics depend on meteorological characteristics such as wind, radiation, sunshine, air temperature and precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine ozone trajectories along the northern coast of Portugal during the summer months of 2005, when there was a spate of forest fires in the region, evaluating their impact on respiratory and cardiovascular health in the greater metropolitan area of Porto. We investigated the following diseases, as coded in the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases: hypertensive disease (codes 401–405); ischemic heart disease (codes 410–414); other cardiac diseases, including heart failure (codes 426–428); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and allied conditions, including bronchitis and asthma (codes 490–496); and pneumoconiosis and other lung diseases due to external agents (codes 500–507). We evaluated ozone data from air quality monitoring stations in the study area, together with data collected through HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model analysis of air mass circulation and synoptic-scale zonal wind from National Centers for Environmental Prediction data. High ozone levels in rural areas were attributed to the dispersion of pollutants induced by local circulation, as well as by mesoscale and synoptic scale processes. The fires of 2005 increased the levels of pollutants resulting from the direct emission of gases and particles into the atmosphere, especially when there were incoming frontal systems. For the meteorological case studies analyzed, peaks in ozone concentration were positively associated with higher rates of hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases, although there were no significant associations between ozone peaks and admissions for respiratory diseases.     

Environmental Determinants of Campylobacteriosis Risk in Philadelphia from 1994 to 2007

Campylobacter species infections are a common cause of acute gastroenteritis, and may uncommonly be complicated by renal, neurological, and rheumatologic sequelae. Although excess summertime campylobacteriosis has been observed, environmental mechanisms driving disease seasonality are poorly understood. We sought to evaluate the relationship between environmental factors and campylobacteriosis risk in a major North American metropolitan area. We evaluated 1532 cases of campylobacteriosis reported in Philadelphia between 1994 and 2007. We constructed Poisson regression models with oscillatory smoothers, and also used case-crossover design, to evaluate the associations between environmental exposures and disease risk on weekly and daily time scales. Both methods control for confounding by seasonally oscillating environmental factors. Incidence was greatest in June and July, with annual periodicity. Weekly incidence was associated with increasing relative humidity, (incidence rate ratio (IRR) per % 1.017, 95% CI 1.008–1.025), temperature (IRR per °C 1.041, 95% CI 1.011–1.072), and decreasing Delaware River temperature during the same week (IRR per °C 0.922, 95% CI 0.883–0.962), and at 4-week lags (IRR per °C 0.953, 95% CI 0.919–0.990). No acute associations were identified in case-crossover analyses. Our findings affirm the summertime seasonality of campylobacteriosis in Philadelphia, and the link between warm, humid weather and disease risk. However, the link between low river temperatures and enhanced campylobacteriosis risk in humans described here is novel, consistent with known links between watershed temperature and Campylobacter survival, and implicates local watersheds as epidemiologically important reservoirs for foodborne pathogens.     

Chilling and heat requirements for the prediction of the beginning of the pollen season of Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertner in Ponferrada (León, Spain)

Winter-flowering trees such as the alder (Alnus glutinosa (L.) Gaertner) can survive periods of adverse climatic conditions, entering a period of dormancy in the early fall. The end of dormancy and the start of the pollen season require a period of low temperatures followed by another of warm temperatures. These requirements were studied from 1995 to 2002, in order to develop a model to predict the onset of the alder pollen season in Ponferrada (Spain). Chilling accumulation took place from late October to late December or early January. The best result was obtained with a threshold temperature of 6.5 °C and an average of 848 chilling hours (CH). Heat requirements were calculated at maximum temperature, an average 143 growth degree days (GDD) were needed, with a threshold temperature of 0 °C. In order to validate models, predicted values were compared with real values for 2002–2003, 2003–2004 and 2004–2005, years not used in developing the models. Predictions for the pollen-season start-date differed only slightly from observed dates: in 2002–2003 predicted and observed dates were the same, in 2003–2004 there was a difference of 7 days and in 2004–2005 a difference of 3 days.     

Temperature dependence of seedling establishment of a perennial, Dioscorea tokoro

The temperature dependence of seed germination and seedling growth was analyzed in Dioscorea tokoro, an East Asian summer-green perennial. Seeds were able to germinate fully only at 11°–20°C. At around 17°–20°C the first leaf petiole of the seedling elongated and quickly set the first leaf blade at a position enabling photosynthesis. At temperatures higher than 20°C petiole elongation was retarded, and seedlings formed a rhizome and established as a perennial. The rhizome size increased with temperature up to 29°C. Thus, during growth immediately after germination, temperature appears to be a key factor in determining whether the plant establishes as a perennial or grows rapidly without rhizome thickening. Received: April 6, 2001 / Accepted: September 14, 2001     

A simple heat alert system for Melbourne,Australia

A simple heat alert system, based solely on predicted maximum and minimum daily temperatures, has been developed for the city of Melbourne in southeast Australia. The system is based upon a demonstration that, when mean daily temperature exceeds a threshold of 30°C (mean of today’s maximum temperature and tonight’s minimum temperature), the average daily mortality of people aged 65 years or more is about 15–17% greater than usual. Similar numbers of excess deaths also occur when daily minimum temperatures exceed 24°C (increases of 19–21% over expected death rate), so a heat alert system based solely on this widely available weather forecast variable is also feasible. No strong signal of excess heat-related deaths appears when the data are stratified using daily maximum temperatures. This may be because in Melbourne some days with very high maximum temperatures will be affected by the passage of cool changes and cold fronts in the afternoon, leading to a rapid drop in temperature (i.e., some days with high maximum temperatures will not continue to be hot throughout the day and into the evening). A single day with temperatures exceeding the thresholds noted above is sufficient to cause this increase in mortality, rather than requiring an extended heat wave. The increased daily mortality does not appear to represent a short-term advancement of mortality.     

Higher northern latitude normalized difference vegetation index and growing season trends from 1982 to 1999

Normalized difference vegetation index data from the polar-orbiting National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration meteorological satellites from 1982 to 1999 show significant variations in photosynthetic activity and growing season length at latitudes above 35°N. Two distinct periods of increasing plant growth are apparent: 1982–1991 and 1992–1999, separated by a reduction from 1991 to 1992 associated with global cooling resulting from the volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in June 1991. The average May to September normalized difference vegetation index from 45°N to 75°N increased by 9% from 1982 to 1991, decreased by 5% from 1991 to 1992, and increased by 8% from 1992 to 1999. Variations in the normalized difference vegetation index were associated with variations in the start of the growing season of –5.6, +3.9, and –1.7 days respectively, for the three time periods. Our results support surface temperature increases within the same period at higher northern latitudes where temperature limits plant growth. Received: 25 October 2000 / Revised: 20 August 2001 / Accepted: 22 August 2001     

An improved estimation of daily clear-sky biologically EER from broadband global solar radiation

To establish a relation between biologically effective erythemal radiation (EER) and global solar radiation, the hourly and daily clear-sky broadband (310–2,800 nm) global solar radiation (G) and spectral ultraviolet radiation incident on a horizontal surface at Esfahan, Iran (32°37′N, 51°40′E) were measured during the period 2001–2005. Good correlations at statistically significant levels between the daily values of EER and the daily G were found. The seasonal variability of EER/G is also discussed and the correction factors are determined for inclusion of vertical column ozone and solar zenith angle (SZA) cycles. The comparison of the estimated daily EER against the independent observed EER revealed that under clear sky conditions the estimations are accurate to 10% or better over SZA of 10–60° and column ozone of 250–350 Dobson. The comparison of the results with the similar works that have used shorter period of experimental data showed more accurate estimates. The deduced relations could be used to a rough estimate of the daily EER from G in arid climate regions, where there is no measured UV radiation or there are instrumental and other difficulties encountered in measuring UV radiation.     

Hot weather warning might help to reduce elderly mortality in Hong Kong

While there was evidence on the relationship between extreme hot weather and the increase in mortality, particularly from ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and cerebrovascular disease (stroke), some researchers suggested that early warning systems might reduce mortality. In this study, the relationship between Very Hot Weather Warning (VHWW) and mortality was examined in the context of Hong Kong, which has a sub-tropical climate. An observational study was conducted on the daily number of deaths due to IHD and stroke in the Hong Kong elderly population (aged 65 or above) during summer (May–September) in 1997–2005. Totals of 4,281 deaths from IHD and 4,764 deaths from stroke occurred on days with maximum temperature reaching/exceeding 30.4°C. Multiple linear regression models were used to study the association between VHWW and the daily mortality rates from IHD and from stroke, respectively. Results showed that absence of VHWW was associated with an increase of about 1.23 (95% CI: 0.32, 2.14) deaths from IHD and 0.97 (95% CI: 0.02, 1.92) deaths from stroke among the elderly per day. Public education is required to inform the elderly to take appropriate preventive measures and to remind the public to pay more care and attention to the elderly on days which are not considered to be stressful to the general public. Warning systems tailored for the elderly could also be considered.     

Temperature variation and emergency hospital admissions for stroke in Brisbane,Australia, 1996–2005

Stroke is a leading cause of disability and death. This study evaluated the association between temperature variation and emergency admissions for stroke in Brisbane, Australia. Daily emergency admissions for stroke, meteorologic and air pollution data were obtained for the period of January 1996 to December 2005. The relative risk of emergency admissions for stroke was estimated with a generalized estimating equations (GEE) model. For primary intracerebral hemorrhage (PIH) emergency admissions, the average daily PIH for the group aged < 65 increased by 15% [95% confidence interval (CI): 5, 26%] and 12% (95% CI: 2, 22%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature and minimum temperature in summer, respectively, after controlling for potential confounding effects of humidity and air pollutants. For ischemic stroke (IS) emergency admissions, the average daily IS for the group aged ≥ 65 decreased by 3% (95% CI: −6, 0%) for a 1°C increase in daily maximum temperature in winter after adjustment for confounding factors. Temperature variation was significantly associated with emergency admissions for stroke, and its impact varied with different type of stroke. Health authorities should pay greater attention to possible increasing emergency care for strokes when temperature changes, in both summer and winter.     

Temperature-induced excess mortality in Moscow,Russia

After considering the observed long-term trends in average monthly temperatures distribution in Moscow, the authors evaluated how acute mortality responded to changes in daily average, minimum and maximum temperatures throughout the year, and identified vulnerable population groups, by age and causes of death. A plot of the basic mortality–temperature relationship indicated that this relationship was V-shaped with the minimum around 18°C. Each 1°C increment of average daily temperature above 18°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 2.8%, from coronary heart disease by 2.7%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 4.7%, and from respiratory diseases by 8.7%, with a lag of 0 or 1 day. Each 1°C drop of average daily temperature from +18°C to −10°C resulted in an increase in deaths from all non-accidental causes by 0.49%, from coronary heart disease by 0.57%, from cerebrovascular diseases by 0.78%, and from respiratory diseases by 1.5%, with lags of maximum association varying from 3 days for non-accidental mortality to 6 days for cerebrovascular mortality. In the age group 75+ years, corresponding risks were consistently higher by 13–30%. The authors also estimated the increase in non-accidental deaths against the variation of daily temperatures. For each 1°C increase of variation of temperature throughout the day, mortality increased by 0.3–1.9%, depending on other assumptions of the model.