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1.
Demographic rates are rarely estimated over an entire species range, limiting empirical tests of ecological patterns and theories, and raising questions about the representativeness of studies that use data from a small part of a range. The uncertainty that results from using demographic rates from just a few sites is especially pervasive in population projections, which are critical for a wide range of questions in ecology and conservation. We developed a simple simulation to quantify how this lack of geographic representativeness can affect inferences about the global mean and variance of growth rates, which has implications for the robust design of a wide range of population studies. Using a coastal songbird, saltmarsh sparrow Ammodramus caudacutus, as a case study, we first estimated survival, fecundity, and population growth rates at 21 sites distributed across much of their breeding range. We then subsampled this large, representative dataset according to five sampling scenarios in order to simulate a variety of geographic biases in study design. We found spatial variation in demographic rates, but no large systematic patterns. Estimating the global mean and variance of growth rates using subsets of the data suggested that at least 10–15 sites were required for reasonably unbiased estimates, highlighting how relying on demographic data from just a few sites can lead to biased results when extrapolating across a species range. Sampling at the full 21 sites, however, offered diminishing returns, raising the possibility that for some species accepting some geographical bias in sampling can still allow for robust range‐wide inferences. The subsampling approach presented here, while conceptually simple, could be used with both new and existing data to encourage efficiency in the design of long‐term or large‐scale ecological studies.  相似文献   

2.
This paper is the first to tackle the problem of designing routes in service companies that are responsible for the metrological control of measuring equipments at customer sites. This real-world problem belongs to the well-known Rich Vehicle Routing Problems which combine multiple attributes that distinguish them from traditional vehicle routing problems. The attributes include fixed heterogeneous fleet of vehicles, time windows for customers and depot, resource synchronization between tours, driver-customer and vehicle-customer constraints, customer priorities and unserved customers. This routing and scheduling problem is modeled with linear programming techniques and solved by a variable neighborhood descent metaheuristic based on a tabu search algorithm with a holding list. A real-life case study faced by a company in the region of Andalusia (Spain) is also presented in this work. The performance of the metaheuristic is compared with the literature for the standard fixed heterogeneous vehicle routing problem. Results obtained on a real case instance improve the solutions implemented by the company.  相似文献   

3.
李清良  吴倩  高进波  马军  徐秋芳  俞慎 《生态学报》2015,35(16):5486-5494
人类活动改变流域集水区土地利用方式同时提高了土壤重金属水平,并影响地表水重金属负荷。以具有明确地理边界的流域作为研究单元可能实现计量区别不同人类活动或因其引起的土地利用方式对土壤重金属空间分布及其环境风险的贡献。但不同人类活动及其改变的土地利用方式对土壤和地表水重金属负荷的相对贡献研究缺乏可操作性方法论。以我国典型的山塘水库小流域—福建省厦门市坂头水库流域为例,结合遥感影像解译、野外土壤重金属水平调查和GIS地统计方法,针对小流域尺度土壤重金属空间分布及其环境风险与土地利用方式相关性研究进行方法论的探索。坂头水库流域覆盖205km2,土地利用类型有林地、农业用地、城镇用地、绿地和水面等5大类。按照不同土地利用类型覆盖面积为权重,以统计最小样本数为准则,在该流域内共采集150个表层土壤样品,针对6种具有人为源特征重金属(Cu、Zn、Pb、Cr、Ni、Cd)土壤总量及富集水平进行分析,以潜在生态风险指数评价流域土壤重金属风险,并结合土地利用类型分析了其空间特征。结果表明:与林地和绿地相比,城镇用地和农业用地表层土壤重重金属水平显著较高;土壤重金属富集水平及其潜在生态风险依次为:城镇用地农业用地绿地林地;城镇化加重了流域土壤重金属Cu、Zn和Cd的污染风险;土壤Pb富集水平与土地利用方式无关,可能为大气沉降来源;所有土地利用方式土壤Cr和Ni总量低于区域土壤背景值,但城镇用地的富集指数显著高于林地。基于土地利用方式的反距离加权空间插值(LU-IDW)也清晰地揭示了土壤重金属富集及其潜在生态风险与人类活动密切相关,尤其是城镇化。以野外调查结合遥感卫星图像解译和基于土地利用方式的空间插值的研究方法有效地揭示了研究流域土壤重金属的空间分布特征及其潜在风险评价空间模式,为小流域尺度的环境质量演变研究提供了方法论和案例。  相似文献   

4.
The Verret basin was formerly an overflow area between the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers and contains about 41,000ha of forested wetlands. Water levels are rising at the rate of over 1 cm/year in this area, and the forests are subjected to longer and deeper flooding. Tree growth, litterfall, and species composition were monitored across a flooding gradient during January 1985–December 1986. The driest area was only 20 cm higher in elevation than the wettest area, but the structure of the forest changes greatly over this range. The drier area was dominated by sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.), oaks (Quercus spp.), and sugarberry (Celtis laevigata Willd.), while green ash (Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh.), red maple (Acer rubrum L.), and baldcypress (Taxodium distichum (L.) Rich.) were dominant in the wetter area. Green ash and bitter pecan (Carya aquatica (Michaux. f.) Nutt.) were found in all plots, but these two species are under severe stress in the more flooded area as evidenced by dead and dying trees. Stem wood production increased from 1985 to 1986 in the driest (392 to 473 g/m2/yr) and wettest (199 to 399 g/m2/yr) plots, but remained relatively unchanged in the transitional area (386 to 380g/m2/yr). Leaf litter production decreased across the gradient from dry to flooded plots during both years. Over 40% of the litterfall in the drier plot was from flood-tolerant shrub species. In the flooded plots, red maple and baldcypress were major contributors to total litterfall. Increased flooding of dry bottomland forests in the future could lead to decreased litterfall and increased tree death over the entire watershed.  相似文献   

5.
典型岩溶流域土壤有机质空间变异——以云南小江流域为例   总被引:13,自引:0,他引:13  
以云南小江流域为例,利用地统计学与GIS相结合研究岩溶区土壤有机质的空间变异。统计分析结果表明,研究区内土壤有机质含量的总体水平较高,平均为29.0g/kg,变异系数为60.5%,属强变异;半方差函数分析结果表明,流域土壤有机质含量的空间变异具有各向异向性,长、短轴变程分别为39.8km和22.0km,同时由空间自相关部分引起的空间变异性的程度较大,C0/(C0+C1)值为53.4%,流域土壤有机质含量具有中等的空间相关性;Kriging插值分析结果表明流域土壤有机质含量由东部向西、西南部逐渐降低,其空间分布与流域地质、地貌及土地利用表现出明显的一致性。  相似文献   

6.
典型岩溶流域景观格局动态变化——以云南小江流域为例   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
根据云南小江流域 1982年的航片和 2 0 0 3年的 TM影像及实地调查资料 ,获得流域两期景观类型图 ,利用 GIS、RS和景观生态学的理论和方法 ,分析了典型岩溶流域景观格局的动态变化及驱动机制。结果表明 :流域 6 10 .12 km2的景观类型发生变化 ,占流域景观总面积的 5 9% ;景观类型变化主要由未利用地向耕地和林地以及林地向耕地的转化 ;流域景观变化速度十分迅速 ,综合变化动态度达 2 .95 % ,园地和耕地景观变化动态度达 34.0 9%、10 .5 5 % ;流域景观的斑块数增加 86 .3% ,平均斑块面积减少 4 6 .1% ,流域景观的基本构型由以大斑块为主体 ,中、小型斑块镶嵌其中转变为以中等斑块为主体 ,大、小型斑块镶嵌其中的构型 ;流域景观多样性指数增长 4 .14 % ,破碎度指数增长 84 .6 % ;未利用地、林地的分离度指数分别增加 114 .5 8%和6 9.6 4 % ,而耕地的分离度指数减少 4 5 .86 % ;流域耕地、建设地重心向东北方向迁移 ,而未利用地、林地、重心向南东、南西方向迁移 ;人文因素是流域景观格局变化的直接驱动力 ,人口增长、经济发展是流域耕地景观变化进而导致系列景观变化最根本的原因 ,而比较经济利益和理智的生态环境保护政策是流域林地景观变化的主要原因  相似文献   

7.
Generalized estimating equations (GEE) are extension of generalized linear models (GLM) widely applied in longitudinal data analysis. GEE are also applied in spatial data analysis using geostatistics methods. In this paper, we advocate application of GEE for spatial lattice data by modeling the spatial working correlation matrix using the Moran's index and the spatial weight matrix. We present theoretical developments and results for simulated and actual data as well. For the former case, 1,000 samples of a random variable (response variable) defined in (0, 1) interval were generated using different values of the Moran's index. In addition, 1,000 samples of a binary and a continuous variable were also randomly generated as covariates. In each sample, three structures of spatial working correlation matrices were used while modeling: The independent, autoregressive, and the Toeplitz structure. Two measures were used to evaluate the performance of each of the spatial working correlation structures: the asymptotic relative efficiency and the working correlation selection criterions. The results showed that both measures indicated that the autoregressive spatial working correlation matrix proposed in this paper presents the best performance in general. For the actual data case, the proportion of small farmers who used improved maize varieties was considered as the response variable and a set of nine variables were used as covariates. Two structures of spatial working correlation matrices were used and the results showed consistence with those obtained in the simulation study.  相似文献   

8.
Hydrobiologia - Many of the world’s rivers are dammed, altering the physiology, behaviour, ecology and survival of fish. Integrative research has the potential to improve our understanding of...  相似文献   

9.
We developed a multiplexed label-free quantification strategy, which integrates an efficient gel-assisted digestion protocol, high-performance liquid chromatography tandem MS analysis, and a bioinformatics alignment method to determine personalized proteomic profiles for membrane proteins in human tissues. This strategy provided accurate (6% error) and reproducible (34% relative S.D.) quantification of three independently purified membrane fractions from the same human colorectal cancer (CRC) tissue. Using CRC as a model, we constructed the personalized membrane protein atlas of paired tumor and adjacent normal tissues from 28 patients with different stages of CRC. Without fractionation, this strategy confidently quantified 856 proteins (≥2 unique peptides) across different patients, including the first and robust detection (Mascot score: 22,074) of the well-documented CRC marker, carcinoembryonic antigen 5 by a discovery-type proteomics approach. Further validation of a panel of proteins, annexin A4, neutrophils defensin A1, and claudin 3, confirmed differential expression levels and high occurrences (48-70%) in 60 CRC patients. The most significant discovery is the overexpression of stomatin-like 2 (STOML2) for early diagnostic and prognostic potential. Increased expression of STOML2 was associated with decreased CRC-related survival; the mean survival period was 34.77 ± 2.03 months in patients with high STOML2 expression, whereas 53.67 ± 3.46 months was obtained for patients with low STOML2 expression. Further analysis by ELISA verified that plasma concentrations of STOML2 in early-stage CRC patients were elevated as compared with those of healthy individuals (p < 0.001), suggesting that STOML2 may be a noninvasive serological biomarker for early CRC diagnosis. The overall sensitivity of STOML2 for CRC detection was 71%, which increased to 87% when combined with CEA measurements. This study demonstrated a sensitive, label-free strategy for differential analysis of tissue membrane proteome, which may provide a roadmap for the subsequent identification of molecular target candidates of multiple cancer types.  相似文献   

10.
We apply a method to evaluate the strength of the evidence for deviations from uniform land change in a coastal area, in the context of Intensity Analysis. The errors in the CORINE maps at 1990 and 2006 can influence the apparent change, but the errors are unknown because error assessment of the 1990 map has never been released, while the error of the 2006 map has been checked for only some countries. The 1990 and the 2006 maps of a coastal watershed in Portugal served as the data to compute the intensities of changes among eight categories. We evaluate the sizes and types of errors that could explain deviations from uniform intensities. Errors in 2.0% of the 2006 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform gains. Errors in 1.5% of the 1990 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform losses. Errors in less than 0.7% of the 1990 map can explain all apparent deviations from uniform transitions to each gaining category. We analyse the strength of the evidence for deviations from uniform intensities in light of historical processes of change. Historical processes can explain some transitions that the data show, while the hypothesised errors in the data are the explanation for other transitions that are not consistent with known processes. Inconsistent transitions are an indication of the misclassification errors that could propagate to other land cover change applications, as in the assessment of hydrological processes.  相似文献   

11.
12.
城市湖泊正面临着水体污染和生态系统退化的双重压力 ,对湖泊生态系统的状态进行预警是判定湖泊演化趋势以及制定相应控制对策的重要途径和手段。本文以武汉市汉阳地区的 6个小型城市湖泊为例 ,结合国内外的研究进展 ,从水生生态系统、湖滨生态系统和入湖沟渠生态系统 3方面入手 ,结合生物监测、生物标志物技术 ,综合考虑水文、水质和生态系统以及污染物扩散等因素 ,设计出汉阳地区湖泊生态系统的预警技术体系。该技术体系主要分 5步 :湖泊生态系统现状调研、生物标志物和关键指示因子确定、水质 -生态系统模拟、系统输出和灵敏度检验以及生态系统状态预警及对策、措施  相似文献   

13.
北京市白河和潮河流域生态健康评价   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
徐菲  王永刚  张楠  王旭  范清 《生态学报》2017,37(3):932-942
选取北京市重要的饮用水源密云水库上游白河和潮河流域,结合北京山区流域生态现状,构建了涵盖水域生境结构、水生生物、生态压力和陆域生态格局与功能、生态压力5大类13项指标的评价指标体系,开展了流域生态健康评价。结果表明白河和潮河流域的健康状态整体处于良好等级,但水生生物和陆域生态格局状况相对较差。14个子流域的健康状况差异并不显著,琉璃河、白河下段、汤河上游的健康状况相对较好,潮河中下段和小汤河的健康状况相对较差。流域内不合理的畜禽养殖、岸边带种植及民俗旅游是导致流域生态健康退化的主要原因,建议加强污染负荷排放的控制和监管涉水活动对水生生境的干扰以改善流域健康状况,并重点关注可指示水生态系统早期退化的生物指数,以实现可持续性和适应性的流域管理,保障密云水库的水生态安全。  相似文献   

14.

Purpose

The aim of this study is to develop and test the applicability of a new subcategory assessment method (SAM) for social life cycle assessment using a case study on high-density polyethylene (HDPE) production by Dow Chemical Canada facility in Alberta, Canada.

Methods

The methodology is characterized by six steps: (1) definition of the goal and scope of the assessment; (2) life cycle inventory data collection including context data at country level and company-specific data for foreground processes; (3) impact assessment where the subcategories’ results for foreground processes at company level are evaluated using a new SAM developed and the country social performance in the different subcategories is evaluated using some assessment intervals; (4) comparing the social performance of foreground processes to the social background context in sector or country; (5) evaluating the social performance of background processes using sector performance evaluation from Product Social Impact Life Cycle Assessment (PSILCA) database or country performance evaluation conducted in the study; (6) and discussion and conclusion.

Results and discussion

The method developed was able to identify the subcategories that need high level or some level of improvements along the cradle-to-gate life cycle of HDPE. In addition, the stakeholders with high negative effect were highlighted in every life cycle stage. Through this approach, Dow Chemical Canada is able to prioritize its actions and focus on the areas where its performance is still low compared to its peers in the sector or compared to the situation in the country. Moreover, through using PSILCA database or country performance evaluation to investigate the social performance of background processes, Dow Chemical Canada can determine the social hotspots areas that need more focus from its suppliers.

Conclusions

Applying the new subcategory assessment approach proposed in this study provides an objective way to assess the subcategories while differentiating between two levels of assessment: (1) the commitment to the social subcategory in the company’s policy (defined as cutoff requirement) and (2) the evidence of good/bad practices of the subcategory. In addition, the comparison of performance of the companies in foreground processes to the social background in sector or country has improved the objectivity further.
  相似文献   

15.
Buffer zones along rivers and streams can provide water quality services by filtering nutrients, sediment and other contaminants from the surface. Redundancy analysis was used to determine the influence of the landscape pattern at the entire catchment scale and at multiple buffer zone scales (100 m, 300 m, 500 m, 1000 m and 1500 m) on the water quality in a highly urbanised watershed. Change-point analysis was further applied to estimate the specific locations along a gradient of landscape metric that result in a sudden change in the water quality variable. The landscape characteristics for 100 m buffer zones appeared to have a slightly greater influence on the water quality than the entire catchment. The patch density of urban land and the large patch index of water were recognised as the dominant variables influencing the water quality for a 100 m buffer zone. The result of change-point analysis indicated key interval values of the two landscape metrics within the 100 m buffer zone. When the patch density of urban land was >30–40 n/100 ha and the largest patch index of water was >2.5–3.5%, the watershed water quality appeared to be better protected.  相似文献   

16.
基于水源涵养的流域适宜森林覆盖率研究   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1  
朱志芳 《生态学报》2011,31(6):1662-1668
适宜森林覆盖率的研究是流域防护林空间布局的基础研究,对流域内防护林林种和林分结构调整有着重要的指导意义。以对土壤饱和蓄水量的贡献大小为依据,人力可控和可测为原则进行流域有林地水源涵养功能评价指标筛选。采用群组AHP法剔除因子间相关性较大的指标,筛选出了地形-土壤因子、林分因子、干扰强度因子共计12个指标;用层次分析法(AHP)计算各指标对土壤饱和蓄水量的权重,以此权重计算各有林地小班水源涵养的等级值以及每个等级对应的面积。以流域历年(40a)最大日降雨量147.2 mm计算流域适宜森林覆盖率。结果表明:林分因子 (0.637)>干扰强度因子(0.258)>地形-土壤因子(0.105),即影响平通河流域有林地水源涵养功能最大的因子是林分因子,其次是干扰度因子;流域基于水源涵养的适宜森林覆盖率为57.09%,变幅为43%-73%。  相似文献   

17.
High rates of deformity in wild amphibian populations from north-eastern North America have been increasingly reported since 1995. In the St Lawrence River basin (Canada) elevated frequencies of limb and eye deformities in mudpuppies (Necturus maculosus) and leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) were recorded in the early 1990s. A caging study was conducted during 1998 to verify the rates recorded in leopard frogs and pursue the potential causes of deformities seen in juveniles and adults. Week-old leopard frog tadpoles were collected from a reference wetland and maintained through to metamorphosis in cages in previously identified high risk wetlands. Deformity frequencies were measured and compared with frequencies measured in wild populations of leopard frogs inhabiting the same wetlands. The results of caging studies and sampling of wild populations were also compared with corresponding data collected from a reference wetland. No deformities were observed in caged or wild reference animals. Very low deformity frequencies (up to 2.2%) were observed in frogs caged in high risk wetlands, but greater frequencies (3.4-10%) were observed in wild young-of-the-year frogs captured at the same sites. The types of deformities were similar among groups; they included fused, missing or extra digits and disproportionate hindlimb length or eye pupil size. In addition, mortality rates were elevated in two cages in high risk wetlands. In general, the caging procedure was effective in establishing the potential for production of deformities in the waters of a given wetland, but tended to underestimate the rates calculated for samples of wild populations. The ramifications of the first-year findings for similar assessments of amphibian deformity rates and establishment of cause-effect linkages are discussed.  相似文献   

18.
BACKGROUND:The epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in retirement homes (also known as assisted living facilities) is largely unknown. We examined the association between home-and community-level characteristics and the risk of outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in retirement homes since the beginning of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.METHODS:We conducted a population-based, retrospective cohort study of licensed retirement homes in Ontario, Canada, from Mar. 1 to Dec. 18, 2020. Our primary outcome was an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection (≥ 1 resident or staff case confirmed by validated nucleic acid amplification assay). We used time-dependent proportional hazards methods to model the associations between retirement home– and community-level characteristics and outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection.RESULTS:Our cohort included all 770 licensed retirement homes in Ontario, which housed 56 491 residents. There were 273 (35.5%) retirement homes with 1 or more outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection, involving 1944 (3.5%) residents and 1101 staff (3.0%). Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection were distributed unevenly across retirement homes, with 2487 (81.7%) resident and staff cases occurring in 77 (10%) homes. The adjusted hazard of an outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a retirement home was positively associated with homes that had a large resident capacity, were co-located with a long-term care facility, were part of larger chains, offered many services onsite, saw increases in regional incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and were located in a region with a higher community-level ethnic concentration.INTERPRETATION:Readily identifiable characteristics of retirement homes are independently associated with outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection and can support risk identification and priority for vaccination.

Frail older adults living in congregate care settings have been at the centre of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada and internationally.1,2 Long-term care facilities — whose residents are the congregate living population most affected by COVID-19 — have been the subject of immense scientific and public interest during the pandemic.3 Retirement homes (often known as assisted living facilities) have received far less examination despite also housing many vulnerable older adults.47 In contrast to long-term care facilities, retirement homes are private residential complexes that provide a range of supportive care and lifestyle services that are purchased out of pocket by residents or their families.8 Although residents of retirement homes access supportive care services, they are substantially less frail and dependent than residents of long-term care homes.5 Inconsistent regulation of these facilities throughout Canada and the United States has limited research into the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection in retirement homes.9There are 770 licensed retirement homes in Ontario, Canada’s most populous province, that house more than 50 000 older adults, a population size that approaches the number of Ontario residents of long-term care homes.10 Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ontario, the number of positive cases and deaths in retirement homes has continued to grow. As of Apr. 11, 2021, retirement home residents accounted for about 8% of deaths from COVID-19 in Ontario (596/7552).11 Outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection surged in retirement homes during the first and second waves in Canada and the US,11,12 and there has been limited examination in the literature beyond early reports of case surveillance.13We examined the association between home- and community-level characteristics and the risk of outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in Ontario’s retirement homes. Consistent with our previous population-level work in Ontario long-term care homes,2,14 we hypothesized that home size and regional incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection would be associated with the risk of an outbreak.  相似文献   

19.
The management of a genetic improvement program is based on the knowledge of the genetic parameters and their relationships to determine the genetic gains. Knowledge of the coefficient of coancestry (θ) is a requirement for efficient progeny testing scheme and for estimating additive variance components for any quantitative trait. When using open-pollinated families, most authors assume that the seedlings are related as half-sibs, but this is not always true. Our aim was to estimate a mean value of the coancestry coefficient of the families present in a maritime pine Pinus pinaster Ait. (maritime or cluster pine) progeny trial originating from seed collected in a clonal seed orchard and to study how deviations from the standard assumption of θ = 0.125 affect heritability estimations. Five highly polymorphic microsatellite markers were scored in 125 offspring from a subsample of five families from the progeny trial. The mean value of the coancestry coefficient of the families present in this progeny trial was 0.130. Differences between the unadjusted and adjusted heritability estimates were more pronounced in wood density (0.609 and 0.586, respectively) than in diameter (0.166 and 0.154, respectively). We conclude that in the trial, the associated error in heritability estimates due to the inclusion of full-sibs, when assuming a standard coefficient of relationship among open-pollinated sibs of 0.250, was low and that this result is robust with respect to the number of families sampled, given unbiased estimates of average relationship among offspring within sib families.  相似文献   

20.
Six species of isopods and 18 species of amphipods were collectedin the neuston of the Bay of Fundy and adjacent waters. Collectionswere made over a grid of stations covering 2.4x104 km2 duringthree spring, three summer and two autumn surveys. No isopodsand only five species of amphipods were found in spring surveys.Isopods and amphipods were diverse and plentiful in the neustonin summer and autumn. Dominant isopods were Idotea baltica andI.metallica, and dominant amphipods were Calliopius laeviusculusand Parathemisto gaudichaudi. Amphipods and isopods reach theneuston of the Bay of Fundy in three ways. Idotea metallica,the only euneustonic species present, was probably advectedinto the Bay of Fundy from southern waters in summer, and didnot appear to overwinter in the Bay. Most species, includingI.baltica, were collected with drifting littoral vegetation,and we suggest that transport by surface currents is an importantfactor in dispersal of some shoreline crustaceans. Midwaterplankton, such as Parathemisto gaudichaudi, reached the neustoneither by advection in upwelling waters or by an extension oftheir normal diel vertical distribution.  相似文献   

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