The role of propagule pressure in explaining species invasions

Human-mediated species invasions are a significant component of current global environmental change. There is every indication that the rate at which locations are accumulating non-native species is accelerating as free trade and globalization advance. Thus, the need to incorporate predictive models in the assessment of invasion risk has become acute. However, finding elements of the invasion process that provide consistent explanatory power has proved elusive. Here, we propose propagule pressure as a key element to understanding why some introduced populations fail to establish whereas others succeed. In the process, we illustrate how the study of propagule pressure can provide an opportunity to tie together disparate research agendas within invasion ecology.     

A preliminary assessment of biofouling and non-indigenous marine species associated with commercial slow-moving vessels arriving in New Zealand

Vessel traffic is the primary pathway for non-indigenous marine species introductions to New Zealand, with hull fouling recognised as being an important mechanism. This article describes hull fouling on seven slow-moving commercial vessels sampled over a 1 year period. Sampling involved the collection of images and fouling specimens from different hull locations using a standardised protocol developed to assess vessel biofouling in New Zealand. A total of 29 taxa was identified by expert taxonomists, of which 24% were indigenous to New Zealand and 17% non-indigenous. No first records to New Zealand were reported, however 59% of species were classified as ‘unknown’ due to insufficient taxonomic resolution. The extent of fouling was low compared to that described for other slow-movers. Fouling cover, biomass and richness were on average 17.1% (SE = 1.8%), 5.2 g (SE = 1.1 g) and 0.8 (SE = 0.07) per photoquadrat (200 × 200 mm), respectively. The fouling extent was lowest on the main hull areas where the antifouling paint was in good condition. In contrast, highest levels of fouling were associated with dry-docking support strips and other niche areas of the hull where the paint condition was poor. Future studies should target vessels from a broader range of bioregions, including vessels that remain idle for extended periods (ie months) between voyages, to increase understanding of the biosecurity risks posed by international commercial slow-movers.     

Decomposing propagule pressure: the effects of propagule size and propagule frequency on invasion success

Propagule pressure quantifies the inflow of individuals to a location and appears to be a key driver of invasion success. It is often defined as the average number of individuals introduced per time unit, or equivalently as the product of the average number of individuals introduced per introduction event (propagule size) and the frequency of introduction events (propagule frequency). Here we study how the influence of propagule size, frequency, and their product depends on the underlying ecological conditions. While previous studies have focused on introductions under environmental heterogeneity or a strong Allee effect, we examine a range of ecological scenarios that differ in the type of density dependence and in the sign of per capita growth rate. Our results indicate that the relative influence of propagule size and frequency depends mainly on the sign of per capita growth rate. Given a certain average number of individuals introduced per time unit, a high propagule frequency accelerates invasions under ecological scenarios with positive average per capita growth rate throughout the invasion process (‘easy’ scenarios). If per capita growth rate is negative throughout the invasion process (‘difficult’ scenarios) or if there is both an easy and a difficult stage (‘mixed scenarios’), a high propagule size leads to a faster invasion than a high propagule frequency. To explain this finding, we argue that for a fixed value of the product of propagule size and frequency, an increase in propagule size leads to an increase in demographic variance, which promotes invasion success in difficult and mixed but not in easy scenarios. However, we also show that in many of these cases, the product of propagule size and frequency still correlates more strongly with invasion success than either of the single components. Finally, we illustrate our approach with empirical examples from the literature.     

The risk of establishment of aquatic invasive species: joining invasibility and propagule pressure

Invasive species are increasingly becoming a policy priority. This has spurred researchers and managers to try to estimate the risk of invasion. Conceptually, invasions are dependent both on the receiving environment (invasibility) and on the ability to reach these new areas (propagule pressure). However, analyses of risk typically examine only one or the other. Here, we develop and apply a joint model of invasion risk that simultaneously incorporates invasibility and propagule pressure. We present arguments that the behaviour of these two elements of risk differs substantially--propagule pressure is a function of time, whereas invasibility is not--and therefore have different management implications. Further, we use the well-studied zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) to contrast predictions made using the joint model to those made by separate invasibility and propagule pressure models. We show that predictions of invasion progress as well as of the long-term invasion pattern are strongly affected by using a joint model.     

Life history patterns and ecology of macaque species

Macaques are found both in broadleaf evergreen forest and in more variable habitats. The former group might be expected to be subject to less variability in their environment and hence to suffer lower rates of density independent mortality. Life history evolution models predict that species in such conditions will have lower rates of development and breeding than those found in more variable habitats where density independent mortality is high. This prediction is tested here by comparing the breeding and development rates of nine species of macaque. Although measures of developmental rate are not found to vary in a predictable way with habitat, measures of breeding rate do correlate with habitat categories used. As predicted, species that are found in more variable habitats tend to have higher birth rates and a higher intrinsic rate of natural increase than do species in more stable, forest habitats. Contrary to prediction selection does not always act to produce an early age at first reproduction in macaques living in seasonal environments. This is discussed with relation to physiological and environmental constraints.     

Spatially variable propagule pressure and herbivory influence invasion of chaparral shrubland by an exotic grass

Although numerous studies have identified mechanisms that either resist or facilitate biological invasions, few studies have explicitly tested how resisting and facilitating mechanisms interact to drive invasion success. In California, USA, undisturbed Mediterranean-type shrublands have resisted invasion by the perennial tussock grass Cortaderia jubata. In some cases, however, this resistance has been spectacularly breached even in the absence of large-scale disturbance. I tested the hypothesis that these invasions are facilitated by local reductions in the strength of biotic resistance. I evaluated invasive success using C. jubata seed and seedling additions at different microhabitats: the edge of a chaparral stand, under shrub canopy at different distances from the stand edge, and in canopy gaps within the stand. When left exposed to mammalian herbivores, seedling survivorship decreased sharply from nearly 40% on the stand edge to zero just 10 m into the stand. When transplants were protected from herbivory, however, distance from the edge had no significant influence on transplant survivorship. Seedling emergence was also greater on the edge and in canopy gaps than under the canopy, but these differences were not caused by differences in herbivory. The flux of invasive propagules reaching the soil surface was immense and greater along the edge and within gaps than under the stand canopy. Mirroring these patterns, naturally occurring seedling abundance declined dramatically with distance from the stand edge, and seedlings were far more common within stand gaps than would be expected given gap frequency within the stand. Despite strong biotic resistance to invasion within the stand, the cover of C. jubata has increased 20% over the last 9 years. These results suggest that the relative amount of susceptible edge habitat and the supply of invasive propagules can facilitate invasion even in the face of strong local biotic resistance.     

Assessing the port to port risk of vessel movements vectoring non-indigenous marine species within and across domestic Australian borders

Biofouling of vessels is implicated as a high risk transfer mechanism of non-indigenous marine species (NIMS). Biofouling on international vessels is managed through stringent border control policies, however, domestic biofouling transfers are managed under different policies and legislative arrangements as they cross internal borders. As comprehensive guidelines are developed and increased compliance of international vessels with 'clean hull' expectations increase, vessel movements from port to port will become the focus of biosecurity management. A semi-quantitative port to port biofouling risk assessment is presented that evaluates the presence of known NIMS in the source port and determines the likelihood of transfer based on the NIMS association with biofouling and environmental match between source and receiving ports. This risk assessment method was used to assess the risk profile of a single dredge vessel during three anticipated voyages within Australia, resulting in negligible to low risk outcomes. This finding is contrasted with expectations in the literature, specifically those that suggest slow moving vessels pose a high to extreme risk of transferring NIMS species.     

Community context and the influence of non-indigenous species on juvenile salmon survival in a Columbia River reservoir

Non-indigenous species (NIS) have been called biological pollutants, which implies that reducing their numbers should reduce negative impacts. To test this hypothesis, we used food web models, parameterized with data from field studies, to ask how reducing the number of NIS co-occurring with endangered salmon would affect salmon mortality. Our analyses indicate that predation on Upper Columbia River spring chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and steelhead O. mykiss juveniles was affected very little by NIS reduction. The effects of removing NIS were partly or totally offset by indirect food web interactions, and were subtle compared to effects of native predator management. We predict that the most effective way of reducing predation on salmon smolts will involve managing native predators and targeted removals of specific NIS. Minimizing impact of established NIS thus entails not only reducing NIS prevalence, but also considering background management practices and community context.     

The interaction between propagule pressure,habitat suitability and density‐dependent reproduction in species invasion

Seedling recruitment limitations create a demographic bottleneck that largely determines the viability and structure of plant populations and communities, and pose a core restriction on the colonization of novel habitat. We use a shade‐tolerant, invasive grass, Microstegium vimineum, to examine the interplay between seed and establishment limitations – phenomena that together determine recruitment success but usually are investigated individually. We add increasing amounts of seed to microhabitats containing variable levels of leaf litter thickness – with reduced leaf litter simulating disturbance – to investigate whether reduced seed limitation overcomes the establishment limitation posed by litter cover. We do this across gradients in understory light, moisture and temperature, and quantify germination, survival, and then per capita adult biomass and reproduction in order to understand the implications for invasion across the landscape. We find that the combined effects of seed and establishment limitation influence recruitment; however, propagule pressure overwhelms the inhibitory effects of leaf litter thickness. Leaf litter reduces germination by 22–57% and seedling survival by 13–15% from that observed on bare soil. However, density‐dependent reproduction compensates as 1–3 plants can produce far more seeds (approx. 525) than are required for persistence. As such, just a few plants may establish in understory forest habitat and subsequently overwhelm establishment barriers with copious propagule production. These results, for a widespread, invasive plant, are consistent with the emerging perspective for native plants that seed and establishment limitation jointly influence recruitment. The ability for an exotic plant species to compensate for low population densities with high per capita seed production, that then overrides establishment limitations, makes its invasive potential daunting. Further work is required to test if this is a common mechanism underlying plant invasions.     

Niche based distribution modelling of an invasive alien plant: effects of population status, propagule pressure and invasion history

Forecasting the spatial spread of invasive species is important to inform management planning. Niche-based species distribution models offer a well-developed framework for assessing the potential range of species. However, these models assume equilibrium between the species’ distribution and its ecological requirements. During range expansion, invasive species are not in such equilibrium due to both dispersal limitation and frequent casual occurrence in sites unsuitable to persistent populations. In this article we use the example of the invasive annual plant Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Austria to evaluate if model accuracy can be enhanced in such non-equilibrium situations by taking account of propagule pressure and by restricting model calibration to naturalized populations. Moreover, we test if model accuracy increases during invasion history using distribution data from 1984 to 2005. The results suggest that models calibrated with naturalized populations are much more accurate than those based on the total set of records. Proxies of propagule pressure slightly but significantly improve goodness of fit, accuracy, and Type I and II error rates of models calibrated with all available records but have less consistent effects on models of naturalized populations. Model accuracy did not increase during the recent invasion history, probably because the species is still far from an equilibrium distribution. We conclude that even a coarse assessment of population status with records of invasive species delivers important information for predictive modelling and that proxies of propagule pressure should be included into such models at least during early to intermediate stages of the invasion history.     

Location and interseasonal variation in flowering, propagule setting and propagule size in mangroves species of the family Rhizophoraceae

Three species of mangroves, Rhizophora stylosa, Rhizophora mangle (synonym R. samoensis) and Bruguiera gymnorhiza in the family Rhizophoraceae were studied to understand the flowering pattern, propagule development and the propagule size at maturity prior to dispersal from the mother plant. The study was conducted in the Wet and the Dry zones over two seasons in Viti Levu, the Main Island of Fiji. The flower number, number of propagules and propagule size at maturity were significantly different among three species and within species in the Dry and the Wet zones. Only 1–2% of total flowers in each species became mature propagules. This percentage was significantly lower in the Dry zone for all three species. Rhizophora stylosa produced the biggest size of propagules followed by Rhizophora mangle and Bruguiera gymnorhiza. Relatively longer and heavier propagules were recorded in the Wet zone and shorter and lighter in the Dry zone. Inter-seasonal differences were not significant for these characters. This could be mainly due to almost similar amount of rainfall, relative humidity and temperature regimes over two seasons within each zone.     

Life history adaptations and stress tolerance of four domestic species of Drosophila

Life history traits and stress tolerance were studied in four domestic species of Drosophila–D. melanogaster, D. simulans, D. auraria and D. immigrans– to understand how they adapt to their environments. In all species, larval weight approximately doubled in 1 day. The relative egg weight (egg weight : pupal weight) was smaller and the larval period was longer in D. immigrans than in the other three species. The pupal period was the longest in D. auraria. However, the adaptive significance of these differences in larval and pupal periods was not clear. The pupal case was generally thicker in the larger species, probably to support the larger pupal body. The start of oviposition was earliest and reproductive effort was greatest in female D. simulans, followed by female D. melanogaster. In contrast, starvation tolerance and the increase in bodyweight after eclosion was greater in D. immigrans and D. auraria than in the other two species. Pupal desiccation tolerance was greatest in D. melanogaster and lowest in D. auraria, and the less tolerant species seemed to select more humid sites for pupation. Adult tolerance to desiccation was greatest in D. melanogaster and lowest in D. simulans. In contrast, adult cold tolerance was greater in D. auraria and adult heat tolerance was lower in D. immigrans than in the other species. These differences in life history traits and stress tolerance represent the Drosophila species differential adaptations, and are assumed to allow coexistence of the species.     

Hotspots of plant invasion predicted by propagule pressure and ecosystem characteristics

Aim Biological invasions pose a major conservation threat and are occurring at an unprecedented rate. Disproportionate levels of invasion across the landscape indicate that propagule pressure and ecosystem characteristics can mediate invasion success. However, most invasion predictions relate to species’ characteristics (invasiveness) and habitat requirements. Given myriad invaders and the inability to generalize from single‐species studies, more general predictions about invasion are required. We present a simple new method for characterizing and predicting landscape susceptibility to invasion that is not species‐specific. Location Corangamite catchment (13,340 km²), south‐east Australia. Methods Using spatially referenced data on the locations of non‐native plant species, we modelled their expected proportional cover as a function of a site’s environmental conditions and geographic location. Models were built as boosted regression trees (BRTs). Results On average, the BRTs explained 38% of variation in occupancy and abundance of all exotic species and exotic forbs. Variables indicating propagule pressure, human impacts, abiotic and community characteristics were rated as the top four most influential variables in each model. Presumably reflecting higher propagule pressure and resource availability, invasion was highest near edges of vegetation fragments and areas of human activity. Sites with high vegetation cover had higher probability of occupancy but lower proportional cover of invaders, the latter trend suggesting a form of biotic resistance. Invasion patterns varied little in time despite the data spanning 34 years. Main conclusions To our knowledge, this is the first multispecies model based on occupancy and abundance data used to predict invasion risk at the landscape scale. Our approach is flexible and can be applied in different biomes, at multiple scales and for different taxonomic groups. Quantifying general patterns and processes of plant invasion will increase understanding of invasion and community ecology. Predicting invasion risk enables spatial prioritization of weed surveillance and control.     

Life history theory and dental development in four species of catarrhine primates

Dental development was reconstructed in several individuals representing four species of catarrhine primates--Symphalangus syndactylus, Hylobates lar, Semnopithecus entellus priam, and Papio hamadryas--using the techniques of dental histology. Bar charts assumed to represent species-typical dental development were constructed from these data and estimated ages at first and third molar emergence were plotted on them along with ages at weaning, menarche, and first reproduction from the literature. The estimated age at first molar emergence appears to occur at weaning in the siamang, lar gibbon, and langur, and just after weaning in the baboon. Age at menarche and first reproduction occur earlier relative to dental development in both cercopithecoids than in the hylobatids, suggesting that early reproduction may be a derived trait in cercopithecoids. The results are examined in the context of life history theory.     

Life history trade-offs and relaxed selection can decrease bacterial virulence in environmental reservoirs

Pathogen virulence is usually thought to evolve in reciprocal selection with the host. While this might be true for obligate pathogens, the life histories of opportunistic pathogens typically alternate between within-host and outside-host environments during the infection-transmission cycle. As a result, opportunistic pathogens are likely to experience conflicting selection pressures across different environments, and this could affect their virulence through life-history trait correlations. We studied these correlations experimentally by exposing an opportunistic bacterial pathogen Serratia marcescens to its natural protist predator Tetrahymena thermophila for 13 weeks, after which we measured changes in bacterial traits related to both anti-predator defence and virulence. We found that anti-predator adaptation (producing predator-resistant biofilm) caused a correlative attenuation in virulence. Even though the direct mechanism was not found, reduction in virulence was most clearly connected to a predator-driven loss of a red bacterial pigment, prodigiosin. Moreover, life-history trait evolution was more divergent among replicate populations in the absence of predation, leading also to lowered virulence in some of the 'predator absent' selection lines. Together these findings suggest that the virulence of non-obligatory, opportunistic bacterial pathogens can decrease in environmental reservoirs through life history trade-offs, or random accumulation of mutations that impair virulence traits under relaxed selection.     

Life history predicts risk of species decline in a stochastic world

Understanding what traits determine the extinction risk of species has been a long-standing challenge. Natural populations increasingly experience reductions in habitat and population size concurrent with increasing novel environmental variation owing to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Recent studies show that a species risk of decline towards extinction is often non-random across species with different life histories. We propose that species with life histories in which all stage-specific vital rates are more evenly important to population growth rate may be less likely to decline towards extinction under these pressures. To test our prediction, we modelled declines in population growth rates under simulated stochastic disturbance to the vital rates of 105 species taken from the literature. Populations with more equally important vital rates, determined using elasticity analysis, declined more slowly across a gradient of increasing simulated environmental variation. Furthermore, higher evenness of elasticity was significantly correlated with a reduced chance of listing as Threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List. The relative importance of life-history traits of diverse species can help us infer how natural assemblages will be affected by novel anthropogenic and climatic disturbances.     

Life history traits and abundance can predict local colonisation and extinction rates of freshwater mussels

1. A critical need in conservation biology is to determine which species are most vulnerable to extinction. Freshwater mussels (Bivalvia: Unionacea) are one of the most imperilled faunal groups globally. Freshwater mussel larvae are ectoparasites on fish and depend on the movement of their hosts to maintain connectivity among local populations in a metapopulation. 2. I calculated local colonisation and extinction rates for 16 mussel species from 14 local populations in the Red River drainage of Oklahoma and Texas, U.S. I used general linear models and AIC comparisons to determine which mussel life history traits best predicted local colonisation and extinction rates. 3. Traits related to larval dispersal ability (host infection mode, whether a mussel species was a host generalist or specialist) were the best predictors of local colonisation. 4. Traits related to local population size (regional abundance, time spent brooding) were the best predictors of local extinction. The group of fish species used as hosts by mussels also predicted local extinction and was probably related to habitat fragmentation and host dispersal abilities. 5. Overall, local extinction rates exceeded local colonisation rates, indicating that local populations are becoming increasingly isolated and suffering an ‘extinction debt’. This study demonstrates that analysis of species traits can be used to predict local colonisation and extinction patterns and provide insight into the long‐term persistence of populations.     

Differential effects of tributyltin and copper antifoulants on recruitment of non-indigenous species

Maritime transport is a primary vector for many marine invaders. For the past two decades, most commercial vessels have used tributyltin (TBT) antifouling (AF) paint, whereas recreational vessels have been restricted to alternatives, most commonly containing copper. Settlement plates painted with a collar of copper or TBT AF paint, and unpainted control plates, were deployed in commercial and recreational embayments in Port Jackson, Australia, and sampled photographically after 5 and 10 months. Copper enhanced early recruitment of several non-indigenous species (NIS), whereas recruitment of indigenous species was typically reduced by copper. TBT limited the recruitment of NIS for just 5 months and indigenous species, for the entire study. The results suggest that the use of toxic AF paints, and the possible accumulation of AF biocides in embayments, may be negatively affecting indigenous epibiota. Conversely, copper antifoulants on recreational vessels may be facilitating the transport and establishment of copper tolerant NIS into disturbed estuarine habitats.