Managing water-use trade-offs in a semi-arid river delta to sustain multiple ecosystem services: a modeling approach

Managing trade-offs among water uses in a river basin to sustain multiple ecosystem services is crucial for adaptation to changing river flow regimes. Here we analyze the trade-off between irrigation and fisheries in the Amudarya, a semi-arid river basin in Central Asia, using an optimal control and an agent-based modeling approach. With the optimal control approach (OCA), we identify the economic and ecological conditions for water sharing in a regime where a social manager controls water withdrawals and fish harvesting. With the agent-based model (ABM), we relax some of the assumptions of the OCA to investigate how localized, individual agents with varied water use histories adapt their water use activities to local resource conditions. Variation in the farmers’ initial labor allocations to the two activities results in regimes with only one activity or both. Global returns and income equality are highest in a mixed regime. The mixed regimes also are more robust to water variability because fishing activities can compensate for decreased agricultural performance in the midstream regions. Thus, allowing for multiple uses can improve the coupled social-ecological system’s performance and its resilience. We also observe a lock-in effect similar to the current situation in the Amudarya, where agriculture is the dominant water use and transition to a more balanced allocation has proven to be extremely difficult. As in the ABM, this can to some extent be attributed to the difficulties of achieving sufficient revenues from fishing when agricultural activities upstream are high. Regulations or incentives are needed to overcome those barriers, and to facilitate progress towards integrated water management.     

The bad and the super-bad: prioritising the threat of six invasive alien to three imperilled native crayfishes

Multiple species invasions and limited resources for management require prioritisation of deleterious effects of invaders on imperilled native species. This study prioritises the threat of six non-indigenous crayfish species (NICS) to three indigenous crayfish species (ICS) in southwestern Germany, a European region with high diversity of crayfish species and freshwater habitats. Using multivariate statistical analyses and niche-based species distribution models, the (1) contemporary and potential range overlap, (2) habitat overlap, and (3) rate of spread of the nine species were assessed. Predicted and contemporary range overlap with ICS was consistently the highest for the alien signal crayfish. Environmental niches of ICS tended to be associated with cooler temperatures (except for white-clawed crayfish), lower Human Influence Index, and higher terrain slope than that of alien Orconectes and Procambarus species, but were mostly similar to that of signal crayfish. Habitat overlap was found to be the highest between signal crayfish and ICS. In contrast to Orconectes and Procambarus species, signal crayfish also invade headwaters, where the most ICS populations occur. Range expansion during the past 15 years was the highest for signal crayfish, followed by Orconectes species. Because of the great potential to invade as-yet isolated refuge areas and spread at a high rate, signal crayfish is of the highest concern for conservation of ICS and should be primarily targeted by prevention and control measures. However, it merely represents the ‘worst of the worst’, since all NICS of North American origin are natural reservoirs of crayfish plague, a fatal disease of ICS.     

Accounting for uncertainty in colonisation times: a novel approach to modelling the spatio‐temporal dynamics of alien invasions using distribution data

A novel, yet generic, Bayesian approach to parameter inference in a stochastic, spatio‐temporal model of dispersal and colonisation is developed and applied to the invasion of a region by an alien plant species. The method requires species distribution data from multiple time points, and accounts for temporal uncertainty in colonisation times inherent in such data. Covariates, such as climate parameters, altitude and land use, which capture variation in the suitability of sites for plant colonisation, are easily incorporated into the model. The method assumes no local extinction of occupied sites and thus is primarily applicable to modelling distribution data at relatively coarse spatial resolutions of plant species whose range is expanding over time. The implementation of the model and inference algorithm are illustrated through application to British floristic atlas data for the widespread alien Heracleum mantegazzianum (giant hogweed) assessed at a 10 × 10 km resolution in 1970 and 2000. We infer key characteristics of this species, predict its future spread, and use the resulting fitted model to inform a simulation‐based assessment of the methodology. Simulated distribution data are used to validate the inference algorithm. Our results suggest that the accuracy of inference is not sensitive to the number of distribution time points, requiring only that there are at least two points in time when distributions are mapped. We demonstrate the utility of the modelling approach by making future forecasts and historic hindcasts of the distribution of giant hogweed in Great Britain. Giant hogweed is one of the worst alien plants in Britain and has rapidly increased its range since 1970, yet we highlight that a further 20% of land area remains susceptible to colonisation by this species. We use the robustness of this case study to discuss the potential for modelling distribution data for other species and at different spatial scales.     

An economic assessment of the contribution of biological control to the management of invasive alien plants and to the protection of ecosystem services in South Africa

This study is a first attempt at a holistic economic evaluation of South African endeavours to manage invasive alien plants using biological control. Our focus was on the delivery of ecosystem services from habitats that are invaded by groups of weeds, rather than by each individual weed species. We established the net present value of the weed biological control efforts, and derived benefit:cost ratios by comparing this value (a cost) to the estimated value of ecosystem services protected by weed biological control. We identified four major functional groupings of invading alien plants, and assessed their impact on water resources, grazing and biodiversity. We estimated the area that remained free of invasions due to all historic control efforts in South Africa, and the proportion that remained free of invasion as a result of biological control (which was initiated in 1913). The estimated value of potential ecosystem services amounted to 152 billion South African rands (ZAR—presently, about US$ 19.7 billion) annually. Although an estimated ZAR 6.5 billion was lost every year due to invading alien plants, this would have amounted to an estimated additional ZAR 41.7 billion had no control been carried out, and 5–75% of this protection was due to biological control. The benefit:cost ratios ranged from 50:1 for invasive sub-tropical shrubs to 3,726:1 for invasive Australian trees. Benefit:cost ratios remained positive and our conclusion, that biological control has brought about a considerable level of protection of ecosystem services, remains robust even when our estimates of the economic impacts of key variables (i.e. sensitivity analyses of indeterminate variables) were substantially reduced.     

Invasive alien plants and South African rivers: a proposed approach to the prioritization of control operations

1. A number of parallel initiatives in South Africa have been addressing the prioritization and management of invasive alien plant species, the prioritization of rivers for the conservation of biodiversity, and broad‐scale planning for water resource management. This paper has combined aspects of these approaches to develop a composite index of prioritization of quaternary catchments for alien plant control purposes. 2. We calculated, for each quaternary catchment, a simple composite index that combined estimates of (i) the number of invasive alien plant species present; (ii) the potential number of invasive alien plant species that would be present if they occupied the full range as determined by climatic envelope models; (iii) the degree of habitat loss in rivers; and (iv) the degree of water stress. Each of the four components contributed between one and four to the combined index, which had a range of values between four and 16. 3. We used a geographic information system to map the distribution of priority catchments for invasive alien plant control. Of the 1911 quaternary catchments in South Africa and Lesotho, just over one‐third (650) were in the highest priority category with an index of 13 or more. A relatively small proportion (273, or 14%) of the catchments had the maximum scores of 15 or 16. 4. The approach identified priority areas that have not currently been identified as such, and should provide decision makers with an objective and transparent method with which to prioritize areas for the control of invasive alien plants. We anticipate debate about the way in which components of the index are calculated, and the weight given to the different components, and that this will lead to the transparent evolution of the index. Improvements would also come about through the addition of a more comprehensive list of species, and through the addition of further components.     

基于山地-绿洲-荒漠系统的生态系统服务正负价值测算——以新疆玛纳斯河流域为例

基于不同生态单元分析生态系统服务正负价值有助于全面客观地了解生态系统服务的异质性。选择典型山地-绿洲-荒漠系统(Mountain-Oasis-Desert System,MODS)下的玛纳斯河流域作为研究区,以1990年、1995年、2000年、2005年、2010年及2015年Landsat系列遥感影像为数据源,采用修正后的生态系统服务价值系数对不同生态单元下的生态系统服务正负价值进行估算。结果表明:(1)1990—2015年玛纳斯河流域土地利用/覆被变化较为显著,耕地、水域及建设用地面积呈现增加趋势,林地、草地及未利用地面积呈减少趋势,其中耕地和未利用地面积变化最为剧烈,建设用地增幅最大,林地减幅最大。(2)研究时段内,研究区正向价值远高于负向价值,且净价值小幅度增加。正向价值在经历"增加-减少-减少-增加-增加"的变化过程后呈现增加趋势,并呈现山地区>绿洲区>荒漠区的特征;各负向价值均表现为不同程度的增大趋势,其中温室气体排放、化肥流失及水资源消耗是流域内最为突出的负向生态系统服务,三者价值之和占比在不同时间段上均达90%以上;净价值由研究初期的8947.89×10<...     

Biotic communities cannot mitigate the negative effects of grazing on multiple ecosystem functions and services in an arid shrubland

Plant and Soil - Dryland biotic communities (plants and biocrusts) are known to maintain multiple functions (multifunctionality) and services (multiservices) that decline with overgrazing by...     

Resilience of ecosystem processes: a new approach shows that functional redundancy of biological control services is reduced by landscape simplification

Functional redundancy can increase the resilience of ecosystem processes by providing insurance against species loss and the effects of abundance fluctuations. However, due to the difficulty of assessing individual species’ contributions and the lack of a metric allowing for a quantification of redundancy within communities, few attempts have been made to estimate redundancy for individual ecosystem processes. We present a new method linking interaction metrics with metabolic theory that allows for a quantification of redundancy at the level of ecosystem processes. Using this approach, redundancy in the predation on aphids and other prey by natural enemies across a landscape heterogeneity gradient was estimated. Functional redundancy of predators was high in heterogeneous landscapes, low in homogeneous landscapes and scaled with predator specialisation. Our approach allows quantifying functional redundancy within communities and can be used to assess the role of functional redundancy across a wide variety of ecosystem processes and environmental factors.     

Impacts of habitat heterogeneity on the provision of multiple ecosystem services in a temperate floodplain

The relationships between habitat heterogeneity and the provision of multiple ecosystem services are not well understood. This study investigates the impacts of heterogeneity in surface floodwater inundation on the productive efficiency of ecosystem service provision, and the degree to which the relative provision of these ecosystem services is evenly balanced. We analyse indicators of five services. Field data from 100 floodplain quadrats were first analysed to investigate relationships between ecosystem service indicators and floodplain hydrology. Floodplain mosaics of varying hydrological heterogeneity were then simulated using the empirical data. Simulated floodplains with higher hydrological heterogeneity were generally less efficient in providing the target indicators, because they were adapted to the particular hydrological ranges which best provided the target services. Simulated floodplains that were more heterogeneous generally provided more even levels of the target indicators by segregating provision into different habitat types. Heterogeneity in floodplain hydrology may help to balance provision of multiple ecosystem services. However, management of hydrological heterogeneity to achieve this requires a detailed understanding of the relationships between each service and habitat conditions.     

Broadening the narratives of ecosystem services: Assessing the perceived services from nature and services to nature

Ecosystem services are often conceptualised as a unidirectional flow of services from nature (S_fN) to societies, neglecting services provided by societies to nature (S_tN). Using respondents from four Ga/Dangme communities in the Greater Accra Region of Ghana, this study sought to develop a scale for measuring the dimensions of perceived S_tN and S_fN, assess the interactional effects between them and determine the changes they have undergone over time. Results showed that from 1987 to 2018, the services provided by the Ga/Dangme to nature were predominantly restoring services (through nature-rejuvenating activities like planting and pruning) and protecting services (via safeguarding measures such as taboos and prohibitions) while they received provisioning (food, water, fuel) and cultural services (which satisfy non-material needs including identity and spirituality) from nature. The study found a symbiotic relationship between S_tN and S_fN as provisioning services had a positive interactional effect on cultural and restoring services and a negative effect on protecting services. Cultural services, as well, positively influenced protecting and restoring services. The main determinants of S_tN and S_fN were the level of vegetation cover, the land cover type and the belief that nature is an abode for numinous beings. The effects of the socio-demographic characteristics of respondents on S_tN and S_fN and were marginal. We recommend that to ensure environmental sustainability, environmentalists should concentrate on cultural services that improve restoring and protecting services. Thus, traditional beliefs need to be contextualised and organised for transfer to younger generations through cultural channels.     

Using the ecosystem services approach to link raptors with human well-being in the Southeast Pampas of Argentina

Biodiversity and Conservation - Understanding the link between biodiversity, ecosystem services and human well-being is necessary to work towards a sustainable use of agroecosystems and the...     

Using the ecosystem services approach for better planning and conservation of urban green spaces: a Finland case study

Ecosystem services are vital for humans in urban regions. However, urban development poses a great risk for the ability of ecosystems to provide these services. In this paper we first address the most important ecosystem services in functional urban regions in Finland. Well accessible and good quality recreational ecosystem services, for example, provided by urban nature, are an important part of a high-quality living environment and important for public health. Vegetation of urban regions can have a role in carbon dioxide sequestration and thus in climate change mitigation. For instance, estimates of carbon sinks can be compared to total CO₂ emissions of an urban region, and the municipality can aim at both increasing carbon sinks and decreasing CO₂ emissions with proper land-use planning. Large and contiguous core nature areas, smaller green areas and ecological connections between them are the essence of regional ecological networks and are essential for maintaining interconnected habitats for species and thus biological diversity. Thus, both local and regional level ecological networks are vital for maintaining ecosystem services in urban regions. The impacts of climate change coupled with land-use and land cover change will bring serious challenges for maintaining ecosystem services in urban areas. Although not yet widely used in planning practices, the ecosystem services approach can provide an opportunity for land-use planning to develop ecologically sustainable urban regions. Currently, information on ecosystem services of urban regions is lacking and there is a need to improve the knowledge base for land-use planning.     

基于LUCC的生态系统服务空间化研究——以张掖市甘州区为例

生态系统服务(ES)评价为减缓或阻止人类活动导致的各种复杂生态问题提供了一种可能的方法,同时也有助于解决日益增加的各种土地利用冲突.以张掖市甘州区为例,运用一种新的空间化方法开展生态系统服务研究,并注重实现与土地利用研究的集成分析.首先根据研究区不同的群落生境和土地利用类型划分生态系统服务类型,然后检验不同土地利用类型和方式对各类生态系统服务供给的影响,最后分析该方法和数据的不确定性.结果表明:1)在灌区和甘州区两个尺度上,4类ES生产能力值均表现为:文化服务＞支持服务＞调节服务＞供给服务;2)2000-2009年,4类ES供给都呈递减趋势,同时,城镇用地、路网建设等人类活动驱动的土地利用方式迅速增加,整个绿洲农业区处于过度开发状态;3)该方法可操作性强,多学科的数据和知识分析是ES研究的难点.     

Neighbour-regulated mortality: the influence of positive and negative density dependence on tree populations in species-rich tropical forests

Density‐dependent mortality has long been posited as a possible mechanism for the regulation of tropical forest tree density. Despite numerous experimental and phenomenological investigations, the extent to which such mechanisms operate in tropical forests remains unresolved because the demographical signature of density dependence has rarely been found in extensive investigations of established trees. This study used an individual‐based demographical approach to investigate the role of conspecific and heterospecific neighbourhood crowding on tree mortality in a Panamanian and a Malayan tropical forest. More than 80% of the species investigated at each site were found to exhibit density‐dependent mortality. Furthermore, most of these species showed patterns of mortality consistent with the Janzen–Connell hypothesis and the rarely explored hypothesis of species herd protection. This study presents some of the first evidence of species herd protection operating in tree communities.