Phenology simulation model of Scotinophara lurida (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae)

A phenology simulation model was developed for Scotinophara lurida (Burmeister). The components for the model were a degree-day immigration flight model of overwintered adults, temperature-dependent developmental models of each stage, survival rates of each stage, and an adult oviposition model. A degree-day model for immigration flight of overwintered adults was developed with blacklight trap catch data by a Weibull function. Laboratory experiments using seven constant temperature regimens were conducted to determine the effect of temperature on the development of immature stages. Developmental rates of each immature stage fit well to a linear model. Distribution of developmental time for each immature stage was successfully modeled against physiological age by a Weibull function. To determine the temperature effect on longevity, fecundity, and survival of female adults, laboratory and greenhouse experiments were conducted. The adult developmental rate (1/median longevity) was described by a linear model. The oviposition model was developed incorporating the three components of average total fecundity, cumulative oviposition rate function, and survival rate function. The simulation model predicted the time of peak occurrences of life stages of S. lurida well.     

Simulation models for European corn borer postdiapause morphogenesis and early infestation of maize in Missouri, USA

 The European corn borer is one of the most damaging insect pests to maize in the United States. Different methods exist for the estimation of time of damage to corn by first generation European corn borer. The most commonly used method is the linear thermal constant concept of phenology which by convention calculates cumulative thermal units from January 1 or another arbitrary date. Linear and nonlinear models based on the thermal units concept developed were to predict and simulate postdiapause development of the European corn borer and subsequent infestation of the maize crop using early spring temperatures (May 1–15) in central Missouri. The developmental rates of European corn borer were obtained from growth chamber investigations that simulated those temperatures, the operational temperatures being selected from a compilation of archival meteorological data from 1948 to 1989. The linear and polynomial regression models were developed to predict phenological stages of the European corn borer using thermal units as developmental rates. The models were compared against each other to determine the better predictor of estimation values: each explained 94 and 98% of the variation in developmental stages, respectively. In addition, the models were tested against independent field data and both models gave good predictions of developmental stages, indicating that either model would be a good predictor. Received: 9 September 1994 / Revised: 28 December 1995 / Accepted: 8 August 1996     

Effect of temperature on development and survival of the parasitoid Pnigalio pectinicornis (Hymenoptera: Eulophidae) reared on Phyllocnistis citrella (Lepidoptera: Gracillariidae)

Laboratory studies were conducted to assess the effect of temperature on the development and survival of the indigenous parasitoid Pnigalio pectinicornis L. on the citrus leaf miner Phyllocnistis citrella Stainton as host, fed on leaves of Citrus sinensis L. Osbck cultivar Washington navel and Citrus reticulata Blanco cultivar Clementine. Experiments were conducted at five constant temperatures ranging from 15 to 32.5 degrees C, with 60 +/- 10% RH and a photoperiod of 14:10 (L:D) h. The relationship between the developmental rate and temperature was determined using both linear and nonlinear (Lactin's formula) models. Developmental time of immature stages tended to be shorter as the temperature increased the range from 15 to 30 degrees C. Mortality was greater at the temperatures extreme tested. Both linear and nonlinear models provided a reliable fit of developmental rates versus temperature for all immature stages. Developmental thresholds that were estimated by the linear model for eggs were higher than those estimated by the nonlinear model. However, higher values of the low developmental threshold for larva and pupa stage of P. pectinicornis were estimated by the Lactin-2 model than that by the linear model. The potential of these models to predict the phenology of this parasitoid and its biological characteristics found in this study are discussed for its proper use as a biological control agent.     

On the Formalization of Temperature Dependence of Plant Developmental Rate

Based on the data obtained in the experiments with constant and alternating diurnal temperatures, the temperature dependence of developmental rate was calculated for different photoperiodic groups of plants using the square regression equations. These equations made it possible to calculate the temperature regions of maximum developmental rates of plants under different photoperiods.     

On the problem of formalization of temperature dependence of developmental rate in plants

Based on the data obtained in the experiments with constant and fluctuating diurnal temperatures, the temperature dependence of developmental rate was calculated for different photoperiodic groups of plants using the square equations of regression. These equations made it possible to calculate the temperature areas of maximum developmental rates of plants under different photoperiodic conditions.     

A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate on geographic range and seasonality of the tick Ixodes scapularis

A dynamic population model of Ixodes scapularis, the vector of a number of tick-borne zoonoses in North America, was developed to simulate effects of temperature on tick survival and seasonality. Tick development rates were modelled as temperature-dependent time delays, calculated using mean monthly normal temperature data from specific meteorological stations. Temperature also influenced host-finding success in the model. Using data from stations near endemic populations of I. scapularis, the model reached repeatable, stable, cyclical equilibria with seasonal activity of different instars being very close to that observed in the field. In simulations run using data from meteorological stations in central and eastern Canada, the maximum equilibrium numbers of ticks declined the further north was the station location, and simulated populations died out at more northerly stations. Tick die-out at northern latitudes was due to a steady increase in mortality of all life stages with decreasing temperature rather than a specific threshold event in phenology of one life stage. By linear regression we investigated mean annual numbers of degree-days >0 degrees C (DD>0 degrees C) as a readily mapped index of the temperature conditions at the meteorological stations providing temperature data for the model. Maximum numbers of ticks at equilibrium were strongly associated with the mean DD>0 degrees C (r2>0.96, P<0.001), when the Province of origin of the meteorological station was accounted for (Quebec>Ontario, beta=103, P<0.001). The intercepts of the regression models provided theoretical limits for the establishment of I. scapularis in Canada. Maps of these limits suggested that the range of southeast Canada where temperature conditions are currently suitable for the tick, is much wider than the existing distribution of I. scapularis, implying that there is potential for spread. Future applications of the model in investigating climate change effects on I. scapularis are discussed.     

Survival and development of different life stages of three Ceratitis spp. (Diptera: Tephritidae) reared at five constant temperatures

Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are the most damaging pests on fruit crops on Réunion Island, near Madagascar. Survival and development of the Mediterranean fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann), the Natal fruit fly, C. rosa Karsch and the Mascarenes fruit fly, C. catoirii Guérin-Mèneville were compared at five constant temperatures spanning 15 to 35 degrees C. Durations of the immature stages of C. capitata, C. rosa and C. catoirii ranged from 14.5-63.8, 18.8-65.7 and 16.8-65.8 days, respectively, at 30-15 degrees C. The lower developmental threshold and thermal constant were calculated using the temperature summation model. The thermal constant for total development of the immature stages of C. capitata, C. rosa and C. catoirii were 260, 405 and 356 DD, respectively. Species differed mainly during the larval stages and ovarian maturation period, with smaller differences in the egg stage. Ceratitis rosa appeared to be better adapted to low temperatures than the two other species as it showed a lower larval developmental threshold of 3.1 degrees C compared to 10.2 degrees C for C. capitata and 8.9 degrees C for C. catoirii. Overall, C. catoirii had a low survival rate within the range of temperatures studied. The different responses of the three Ceratitis species to various temperatures explain to some extent their distribution on the island. The results obtained will be used for optimizing laboratory rearing procedures and for constructing computer simulation models to predict fruit fly population dynamics.     

用非线性模型估测恒温和变温下棉铃虫蛹的发育率

为了深入分析和探讨昆虫发育与环境温度的关系, 在恒温（15~37℃）和交替变温（12/18~34/40℃）下测定了棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera蛹的发育历期(d),分别用线性模型和非线性模型（Logan模型﹑Lactin模型和王氏模型）拟合其发育率(1/d)数据。结果表明,这3个非线性模型能更准确地描述发育率与温度之间的曲线关系,判定系数（R2）在0.9878～0.9991之间。对全部观测数据的进一步研究表明,只要有6个分布合适的观测数据,就可以用这些非线性模型获得相当满意的估测效果。如果缺乏高温下的测定数据,用非线性模型预测的昆虫发育率可能失真。分析了蛹在恒温和变温下发育率差异的可能原因,讨论了应用这3个非线性模型预测蛹期发育的优点和缺点,指出用非线性模型取代线性日·度模型进行害虫发生预测和益虫饲养管理的合理性和必要性。     

Length–biomass equations to allow rapid assessment of semi-aquatic bug biomass in tropical streams

Length–biomass equations are relatively easy and cost-effective for deriving insect biomass. However, the exact relationship can vary between taxa and geographical regions. Semi-aquatic bugs are abundant and are indicators of freshwater quality, but there are no studies investigating the effect of habitat disturbance on their biomass, although it is useful in assessing ecological processes. We identified the best-fit length–biomass models to predict the biomass of semi-aquatic bugs (Hemiptera, Gerromorpha) collected from streams in Sabah, Malaysia. We used 259 juvenile and adult semi-aquatic bugs to compare a range of plausible length–biomass functions, and to assess whether relationships differed across the following families and body forms: (1) Cylindrostethinae, Gerrinae, and Ptilomerinae, which are subfamilies within Gerridae consisting of small-to-large bugs that have long and slender bodies, (2) Halobatinae, a subfamily within Gerridae, consisting of small-to-medium bugs with wide heads and thoraxes as well as short abdomens, and (3) Veliidae, which are small bugs with stout bodies. Estimation used five fitting functions – linear regression, polynomial regression order 2, 3, and 4, and power regression – on the following groupings: three body forms combined; each body form with life stages (juvenile and adult) combined; and each body form with life stages separated. Power regressions were the best fit in predicting the biomass of semi-aquatic bugs across life stages and body forms, and the predictive power of models was higher when the biomass of different body forms was calculated separately (specifically for Halobatinae and Veliidae). Splitting by life stages did not always result in additional improvement. The equations from this study expand the scope of possible future ecological research on semi-aquatic bugs, particularly in Southeast Asia, by allowing more studies to consider biomass-related questions.     

Effect of Temperature on Development and Immature Survival in the Scale Insect Predator, Chilocorus nigritus (F.) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Developmental and immature survival rates of the coccidophagous coccinellid Chilocorus nigritus (F.) were examined under constant, cycling and glasshouse temperatures in order to determine its suitability for use as a biological control agent in temperature glasshouses. First instar larvae did not complete development at 18 C. However, within the range 20-30 C, the developmental rate increased with rising temperature. The theoretical lower thermal threshold for development was found to be 16.6 C. Thermal summation and polynomial regression methods were used to predict developmental periods under glasshouse conditions. The predictions were accurate to within a mean of 10% in relation to observed data. Under laboratory conditions, immature survival rates were highest 28 C (52%) and lowest at (and below) 20 C (17%). First instar larvae suffered the highest mortality rates, while pupae had the lowest. Under glasshouse conditions, the survival rates were much lower (9% in the winter months and 20% throughout the remainder of the year), but the species was considered to be a suitable biocontrol agent if mean daily temperatures were maintained at levels above 20 C.     

Rates of development of Hydrotaea rostrata under summer and winter (cyclic and constant) temperature regimes

The black carrion fly Hydrotaea rostrata Robineau-Desvoidy (Diptera: Muscidae) is a muscid, which occurs on approximately one-third of decomposing human corpses involved in homicide cases in south-western Australia. Work to date on its development rates is scant with only one published source available. The current study measured the precise developmental rates of this species using high repetition and sampling rates. A comparison was made of the developmental rates between constant and cyclic temperatures in winter and summer temperature regimes in south-western Australia. Developmental times for 90% of first stage larvae to emerge as adult flies are: summer constant, 21.6days, summer cyclic, 23.5 days, winter constant 64.5days and winter cyclic, 48.3 days. These data will allow forensic entomologists to make more accurate determinations of post-mortem intervals in cases where H. rostrata life history stages are present.     

Effect of temperature on Brettanomyces bruxellensis: metabolic and kinetic aspects

The effect of temperatures ranging from 15 to 35 degrees C on a culture of Brettanomyces bruxellensis was investigated in regards to thermodynamics, metabolism, and kinetics. In this temperature range, we observed an increase in growth and production rates. The growth behavior was well represented using the Arrhenius model, and an apparent activation energy of 16.61 kcal/mol was estimated. A stuck fermentation was observed at 35 degrees C as represented by high cell death. The carbon balance established that temperature had no effect on repartition of the glucose consumption between biomass and products. Hence, the same biomass concentration was obtained for all temperatures, except at 35 degrees C. Moreover, using logistic and Luedeking-Piret models, we demonstrated that production rates of ethanol and acetic acid were partially growth associated. Parameters associated with growth (alpha eth and alpha aa) remained constant with changing temperature, whereas, parameters associated with the population (beta eth and beta aa) varied. Optimal values were obtained at 32 degrees C for ethanol and at 25 degrees C for acetic acid.     

Temperature related effects on embryonic development of the Mediterranean locust, Dociostaurus maroccanus

Laboratory studies were conducted to assess the effect of temperature on the development of the eggs of Dociostaurus maroccanus (Thunberg) (Orthoptera, Acrididae) during anatrepsis (stages I–XIV) and during catatrepsis (stages XV–XX). The developmental rates of anatrepsis were studied at five constant temperatures ranging from 10 to 30°C. Egg development occurred over the entire range but at 10°C the embryos were unable to complete anatrepsis. The relationship between temperature and developmental times for completing anatrepsis was analysed by the non‐linear Logan type III model. The optimal temperature estimated for the development of eggs during anatrepsis was 24.7°C; the lower and upper thermal thresholds were 9°C and 31°C, respectively. Once the embryos completed anatrepsis, only those incubated at 15°C continued morphogenesis beyond stage XIV (diapause stage) without a low‐temperature exposure period. The developmental rate of catatrepsis was studied at four constant temperatures ranging from 15°C to 30°C after exposure to low‐temperature, 10°C, for 30, 60 or 90 days. For catatrepsis, temperature and developmental time were linearly and inversely related. Linear regression was used to estimate the lower developmental threshold and the degree days requirements for catatrepsis. Both decreased with longer exposure to the low temperature; the former from 13.8°C to 10.5°C and the latter from 212.8 to 171.5 degree days, following 30 and 90 days at 10°C, respectively. Our results improve the ability of decision support systems for Mediterranean locust pest management by providing better forecasts to land managers and pest advisors.     

Developmental trait evolution in trilobites

We performed a tree-based analysis of trilobite postembryonic development in a sample of 60 species for which quantitative data on segmentation and growth increments between putative successive instars are available, and that spans much of the temporal, phylogenetic, and habitat range of the group. Three developmental traits were investigated: the developmental mode of trunk segmentation, the average per-molt growth rate, and the conformity to a constant per-molt growth rate (Dyar's rule), for which an original metric was devised. Growth rates are within the normal range with respect to other arthropods and show overall conformity to Dyar's rule. Randomization tests indicate statistically significant phylogenetic signal for growth in early juveniles but not in later stages. Among five evolutionary models fit via maximum likelihood, one in which growth rates vary independently among species, analogous to Brownian motion on a star phylogeny, is the best supported in all ontogenetic stages, although a model with a single, stationary peak to which growth rates are attracted also garners nontrivial support. These results are not consistent with unbounded, Brownian-motion-like evolutionary dynamics, but instead suggest the influence of an adaptive zone. Our results suggest that developmental traits in trilobites were relatively labile during evolutionary history.     

Development, survivorship, and reproduction of Helicoverpa armigera (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) under constant and alternating temperatures

Laboratory studies were conducted to assess the effect of temperature on the survival, development, fecundity, and longevity of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) at 11 constant temperatures ranging from 12.5 to 40 degrees C, as well as at five alternating temperature regimes (25-10, 30-15, 32.5-17.5, 35-20, and 35-27.5 degrees C) and under a photoperiod of 16:8 (L:D) h. H. armigera reared at constant temperatures did not develop from egg to adult (emergence) outside the temperature range of 17.5-32.5 degrees C. The alternating conditions expanded this range from 10 to 35 degrees C. The lowest developmental thresholds of the immature stages were estimated by a linear model and ranged from 10.17 (pupal stage) to 11.95 degrees C (egg stage) at constant temperature regimes and from 1.1 to 5.5 degrees C, respectively at alternating temperatures. The values of developmental thresholds estimated using the nonlinear (Lactin-2) model were lower than those estimated by the linear model for constant and alternating temperature regimes except for larval and pupal stages at constant temperatures. Mean adult longevity fluctuated from 34.4 d at 15 degrees C to 7.6 d at 35 degrees C. Females reared under all alternating temperature regimes laid more eggs than females reared at any, except the 25 degrees C, constant temperature treatment. The intrinsic rate of increase was highest at 27.5 degrees C, at both the constant and the corresponding alternating temperature regimes (0.147 and 0.139, respectively). Extreme temperatures had a negative effect on life table parameters.     

Effects of temperature on the immature development of the stone leek leafminer Liriomyza chinensis (Diptera: Agromyzidae)

The effect of nine constant temperatures (15, 17.5, 20, 22.5, 25, 27.5 30, 32.5, and 35 degrees C) on the development of the stone leek leafminer, Liriomyza chinensis (Kato), on Japanese bunching onion, Allium fistulosum L., was studied in the laboratory. Developmental times for immature stages were inversely proportional to temperature between 15 and 30 degrees C but increased at 32.5 degrees C. Total developmental times from egg to adult emergence decreased from 69.6 to 17.1 d for temperatures from 15 to 30 degrees C, with pupae requiring more time for development than the combined egg and larva stages. Both linear and nonlinear (Logan equation VI) models provided a reliable fit of development rates versus temperature for all immature stages. The lower developmental thresholds that were estimated from linear regression equations for the egg, first, second, and third instars, total larva, egg-larval, pupa, and total combined immature stages were 12.1, 10.6, 13.6, 8, 9.6, 11.3, 11.2, and 11.4 degrees C, respectively. The degree-day accumulation was calculated as 312.5 DD for development from egg to adult emergence. By fitting the nonlinear models to the data, the upper and optimal temperatures for egg, larva, pupa, and total immature stages were calculated as 37.8 and 31.7, 34.9 and 30.1, 35.8 and 30.6, and 35.0 and 30.9 degrees C, respectively. These data are useful for predicting population dynamics of L. chinensis under field conditions and determining the maximum proportion of susceptible individuals for facilitating improved timing of application of control measures.     

利用线性混合效应模型模拟杉木人工林枝条生物量

基于福建省将乐林场45株人工杉木解析木的572组枝条生物量数据,采用线性混合效应模型方法,建立杉木人工林枝条总生物量和枝、叶生物量的预测模型,并利用独立样本数据对模型进行检验.结果表明： 线性混合效应模型比传统多元线性回归模型的拟合精度高.不同随机效应参数的组合,其混合模型的精度不同.考虑异方差结构的混合模型能够消除数据间的异方差性,其精度更高,其中,对于枝条总生物量和叶生物量模型,以指数函数作为异方差结构时的模型精度最高;对于枝生物量模型,以常数加幂函数作为异方差结构时的模型精度最高.模型检验结果表明：对于杉木人工林枝条生物量预测模型,考虑随机效应和异方差结构的线性混合模型的检验精度比传统多元线性回归模型的精度有明显提高.     

Development, survival, and oviposition of the rabbit tick, Haemaphysalis leporispalustris (Packard) (Acari: Ixodidae), at constant temperatures

The relationship between development, survival, and oviposition rates, and five constant temperatures is described for the developing and reproductive life stages of the rabbit tick, Haemaphysalis leporispalustris (Packard). Development was most rapid at 29.7 C for egg and larvae, and 35.6 C for nymphs. Survival was greatest between 14.7 and 29.7 C, but was reduced at 35.6 C for eggs and larvae. Oviposition was optimal between 19.9 and 29.7 C with a maximum mean daily oviposition of 253 eggs/female/day on the third day of oviposition at 29.7 C. Maximum mean total eggs per female produced was 1,157 with a range of 277 to 3,327. The total number of eggs produced per female correlated with the weight of the engorged female. Both linear and sigmoid curve equations were used to approximate the relationship between the temperature and development rates of eggs, larvae, and nymphs. The nymphs had the highest heat requirements of the 3 development stages. Comparisons with field host-parasite data indicate that the rabbit tick has a 2-yr life cycle in southwestern Nova Scotia.