Micro‐evolutionary diversification among Indian Ocean parrots: temporal and spatial changes in phylogenetic diversity as a consequence of extinction and invasion

Almost 90% of global bird extinctions have occurred on islands. The loss of endemic species from island systems can dramatically alter evolutionary trajectories of insular species biodiversity, resulting in a loss of evolutionary diversity important for species adaptation to changing environments. The Western Indian Ocean islands have been the scene of evolution for a large number of endemic parrots. Since their discovery in the 16th century, many of these parrots have become extinct or have declined in numbers. Alongside the extinction of species, a number of the Indian Ocean islands have experienced colonization by highly invasive parrots, such as the Ring‐necked Parakeet Psittacula krameri. Such extinctions and invasions can, on an evolutionary timescale, drive changes in species composition, genetic diversity and turnover in phylogenetic diversity, all of which can have important impacts on species potential for adaptation to changing environmental and climatic conditions. Using mtDNA cytochrome b data, we resolve the taxonomic placement of three extinct Indian Ocean parrots: the Rodrigues Psittacula exsul, Seychelles Psittacula wardi and Reunion Parakeets Psittacula eques. This case study quantifies how the extinction of these species has resulted in lost historical endemic phylogenetic diversity and reduced levels of species richness, and illustrates how it is being replaced by non‐endemic invasive forms such as the Ring‐necked Parakeet. Finally, we use our phylogenetic framework to identify and recommend a number of phylogenetically appropriate ecological replacements for the extinct parrots. Such replacements may be introduced once invasive forms have been cleared, to rejuvenate ecosystem function and restore lost phylogenetic diversity.     

Responses of Metapopulation Dynamics to Two Different Kinds of Habitat Destruction Caused by Human Activities

Habitat destruction can be classified into instantaneous destruction and continuous destruction by the different ways of human destroying habitat. Previous studies, however, always focused on instantaneous destruction. In this study, we develop a universal model, Multi-time scale N-species model, to study and compare the responses of metapopulation dynamics to both kinds of habitat destruction. The model explores that: (1) under instantaneous habitat destruction, species extinction is determined by the proportion of habitat destruction (D) and the structure of metapopulation (q). When D>q, species will go extinct ranked from the best competitor to the worst. When D≤ q, no species will go extinct, but the equilibrium abundances of odd-ranked competitors will decrease, and the equilibrium abundances of even-ranked competitors will increase; (2) under continuous destruction, species extinction is dependent on the speed of habitat destruction and the metapopulation structure. The higher the speed of habitat destruction and the bigger q are, the earlier species go extinct. Usually, there are two possible mechanisms of species extinction: one is that all species go extinct collectively following complete destruction, and the other is that species go extinct in ranked competitive order from best to worst, and the survivals, if they exist, will go extinct collectively following complete destruction. The oscillation amplitudes of inferior competitors are so large as to increase the probability of stochastic extinction under instantaneous destruction. Therefore, it is relatively propitious for the persistence of rare species under slow and continuous destruction, especially when continuous destruction stops.     

Ecological evaluation of local extinction: the case of two genera of endemic Mexican fish, Zoogoneticus and Skiffia

The Goodeidae is a family of endemic fish from central Mexico. Populations of several species are declining in the wild and two have been reported extinct; Skiffia francesae and Zoogoneticus tequila. Both species were native to just one locality in the Ameca basin. It is difficult to infer the causes of extinction, since limnological data from Teuchitlán prior to the extinction events are not available, and there are no replicate populations. As an alternative approach, we explored the potential links between key environmental variables and events of local extinction of any species in the two genera (four Skiffia spp. and two Zoogoneticus spp.). In 14 localities known to harbour populations of fish of at least one of the six focal species, we conducted limnological surveys in the rainy and in the dry season, and quantified population densities of endemic and introduced fish. In addition, we quantified the concentration of agricultural pollutants in water and mud samples taken from every locality in the dry season. We found that all the focal species face some conservation threat, but we also discovered an extremely small population of the reputedly extinct Zoogoneticus tequila; in contrast, Skiffia francesae was not found. Eutrophication and habitat fragmentation appear to be the main threats to the focal species, with habitat fragmentation exponentially reducing population size and driving populations into refuges where they face stochastic extinction.     

Correlates of rediscovery and the detectability of extinction in mammals

Extinction is difficult to detect, even in well-known taxa such as mammals. Species with long gaps in their sighting records, which might be considered possibly extinct, are often rediscovered. We used data on rediscovery rates of missing mammals to test whether extinction from different causes is equally detectable and to find which traits affect the probability of rediscovery. We find that species affected by habitat loss were much more likely to be misclassified as extinct or to remain missing than those affected by introduced predators and diseases, or overkill, unless they had very restricted distributions. We conclude that extinctions owing to habitat loss are most difficult to detect; hence, impacts of habitat loss on extinction have probably been overestimated, especially relative to introduced species. It is most likely that the highest rates of rediscovery will come from searching for species that have gone missing during the 20th century and have relatively large ranges threatened by habitat loss, rather than from additional effort focused on charismatic missing species.     

Systematics and evolution of the Pan‐Alcidae (Aves,Charadriiformes)

Puffins, auks and their allies in the wing‐propelled diving seabird clade Pan‐Alcidae (Charadriiformes) have been proposed to be key pelagic indicators of faunal shifts in Northern Hemisphere oceans. However, most previous phylogenetic analyses of the clade have focused only on the 23 extant alcid species. Here we undertake a combined phylogenetic analysis of all previously published molecular sequence data (～ 12 kb) and morphological data (n = 353 characters) with dense species level sampling that also includes 28 extinct taxa. We present a new estimate of the patterns of diversification in the clade based on divergence time estimates that include a previously vetted set of twelve fossil calibrations. The resultant time trees are also used in the evaluation of previously hypothesized paleoclimatic drivers of pan‐alcid evolution. Our divergence dating results estimate the split of Alcidae from its sister taxon Stercorariidae during the late Eocene (～ 35 Ma), an evolutionary hypothesis for clade origination that agrees with the fossil record and that does not require the inference of extensive ghost lineages. The extant dovekie Alle alle is identified as the sole extant member of a clade including four extinct Miocene species. Furthermore, whereas an Uria + Alle clade has been previously recovered from molecular analyses, the extinct diversity of closely related Miocepphus species yields morphological support for this clade. Our results suggest that extant alcid diversity is a function of Miocene diversification and differential extinction at the Pliocene–Pleistocene boundary. The relative timing of the Middle Miocene climatic optimum and the Pliocene–Pleistocene climatic transition and major diversification and extinction events in Pan‐Alcidae, respectively, are consistent with a potential link between major paleoclimatic events and pan‐alcid cladogenesis.     

The ghosts of mammals past: biological and geographical patterns of global mammalian extinction across the Holocene

Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.     

Orchid conservation in China from 2000 to 2020: Achievements and perspectives

We review achievements in the conservation of orchid diversity in China over the last 21 years. We provide updated information on orchid biodiversity and suggestions for orchid conservation in China. We outline national policies of biodiversity conservation, especially of orchid conservation, which provide general guidelines for orchid conservation in China. There are now approximately 1708 known species of Orchidaceae in 181 genera in China, including five new genera and 365 new species described over the last 21 years. The assessment of risk of extinction of all 1502 known native orchid species in China in 2013 indicated that 653 species were identified as threatened, 132 species were treated as data-deficient, and four species endemic to China were classified as extinct. Approximately 1100 species (ca. 65%) are protected in national nature reserves, and another ~66 species in provincial nature reserves. About 800 native orchid species have living collections in major botanical gardens. The pollination biology of 74 native orchid species and the genetic diversity and spatial genetic structure of 29 orchid species have been investigated at a local scale and/or across species distributions. The mycorrhizal fungal community composition has been investigated in many genera, such as Bletilla, Coelogyne, Cymbidium, Cypripedium, and Dendrobium. Approximately 292 species will be included in the list of national key protected wild plants this year. Two major tasks for near future include in situ conservation and monitoring population dynamics of endangered species.     

Assessing the role of off‐take and source–sink dynamics in the extinction of the amphidromous New Zealand grayling (Prototroctes oxyrhynchus)

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Life-history characters and phylogeny are correlated with extinction risk in the Australian angiosperms

Aim To determine whether life‐history characters that affect population persistence (e.g. habit and life span) and those that influence reproductive success (e.g. sexual system and fruit type) are non‐randomly correlated with extinction risk (i.e. threat category) in the Australian flora (c. 19,000 species, of which c. 14% is threatened). To identify patterns that present useful conservation directions. To understand patterns of extinction risk in the Australian flora at a broad scale. Location Continental Australia. Methods A country‐wide exploration of four life‐history characters in the Australian flora (n = 18,822 species) was undertaken using reference texts, expert opinion, herbarium records and field work. For each character and threat‐category combination, a G‐test (using a log‐linear model) was performed to test the null hypothesis that the two factors were independent in their effects on count. A generalized linear model (GLM) with a logit link and binomial error distribution was constructed with the proportion of taxa in each extinction risk category as the response variable and the habit, sex and fruit‐type characters as explanatory terms. In a separate approach, we investigated patterns across the threat categories of non‐endangered extant, endangered, and extinct using a multinomial model. We examined whether or not species‐poor genera were more likely to contain threatened or extinct species than species‐rich genera. A GLM with a binomial error distribution and logit link function was constructed to obtain a weighted regression on the proportion of species listed as extinct or endangered within a genus versus the log of the size of the genus. We also used a supertree analysis and character tracing to investigate the role of phylogeny on extinction risk. Results We found that the Australian flora is primarily composed of bisexual shrubs with dry‐dehiscent fruits. Dioecious breeding systems (separate female and male flowers on separate plants) in many floras are the predominant unisexual system, but in Australia there are unexpectedly high levels of monoecy (separate female and male flowers on the same plant). Within the extinct data set of 31 species we detected a significant departure from that expected for habit but not for life span, sexual system or fruit type. There are significantly fewer trees on the extinct list than expected. This may reflect the greater resilience of trees than of other growth habits to extinction processes as well as the observation time‐frame. Within the endangered data set of 450 species we found significant differences in the representation of the observed characters from that expected within sex systems and fruit types. We show that, depending on the life form, unisexual breeding systems can be significantly and positively associated with endangered species compared with non‐threatened species. For example, there are more monoecious species than expected by chance among the tree species listed as endangered but fewer among the herbaceous life forms. Threat category was found to be non‐randomly clustered in some clades. Main conclusions Life‐history characters in certain combinations are predictive of extinction risk. Phylogeny is also an important component of extinction risk. We suggest that specific life‐history characters could be used for conservation planning and as an early warning sign for detecting vulnerability in lists of species.     

SHORT COMMUNICATION: A phantom extinction? New insights into extinction dynamics of the Don‐hare Lepus tanaiticus

The Pleistocene to Holocene transition was accompanied by a worldwide extinction event affecting numerous mammalian species. Several species such as the woolly mammoth and the giant deer survived this extinction wave, only to go extinct a few thousand years later during the Holocene. Another example for such a Holocene extinction is the Don‐hare, Lepus tanaiticus, which inhabited the Russian plains during the late glacial. After being slowly replaced by the extant mountain hare (Lepus timidus), it eventually went extinct during the middle Holocene. Here, we report the phylogenetic relationship of L. tanaiticus and L. timidus based on a 339‐basepair (bp) fragment of the mitochondrial D‐loop. Phylogenetic tree‐ and network reconstructions do not support L. tanaiticus and L. timidus being different species. Rather, we suggest that the two taxa represent different morphotypes of a single species and the extinction of ‘L. tanaiticus’ represents the disappearance of a local morphotype rather than the extinction of a species.     

Evenness–invasibility relationships differ between two extinction scenarios in tallgrass prairie

Experiments that have manipulated species richness with random draws of species from a larger species pool have usually found that invasibility declines as richness increases. These results have usually been attributed to niche complementarity, and interpreted to mean that communities will become less resistant to invaders as species go locally extinct. However, it is not clear how relevant these studies are to real‐world situations where species extinctions are non‐random, and where species diversity declines due to increased rarity (i.e. reduced evenness) without having local extinctions. We experimentally varied species richness from 1 to 4, and evenness from 0.44 to 0.97 with two different extinction scenarios in two‐year old plantings using seedling transplants in western Iowa. In both scenarios, evenness was varied by changing the level of dominance of the tall grass Andropogon gerardii. In one scenario, which simulated a loss of short species from Andropogon communities, we directly tested for complementarity in light capture due to having species in mixtures with dissimilar heights. We contrasted this scenario with a second set of mixtures that contained all tall species. In both cases, we controlled for factors such as rooting depth and planting density. Mean invader biomass was higher in monocultures (5.4 g m^?2 week^?1) than in 4‐species mixtures (3.2 g m^?2 week^?1). Reduced evenness did not affect invader biomass in mixtures with dissimilar heights. However, the amount of invader biomass decreased by 60% as evenness increased across mixtures with all tall species. This difference was most pronounced early in the growing season when high evenness plots had greater light capture than low evenness plots. These results suggest that the effect of reduced species diversity on invasibility are 1) not related to complementarity through height dissimilarity, and 2) variable depending on the phenological traits of the species that are becoming rare or going locally extinct.     

Biotic responses of canids to the terminal Pleistocene megafauna extinction

Trophic downgrading is a major concern for conservation scientists. The largest consumers in many ecosystems have become either rare or extirpated, leading to worry over the loss of their ecosystem function. However, trophic downgrading is not a uniquely modern phenomenon. The extinction of 34 genera of megafauna from North America ～13 000 yr ago must have led to widespread changes in terrestrial ecosystem function. Studies that have examined the event address impacts on vegetative structure, small mammal communities, nutrient cycling, and fire regimes. Relatively little attention has been paid to community changes at the top of the food chain. Here, we examine the response of carnivores in North America to the Pleistocene extinction. We employ fossil data to model the climatic niche of endemic canids, including the extinct dire wolf Canis dirus, over the last 20 000 yr. Quantifying the abiotic niche allows us to account for expected changes due to climate fluctuations over the Late Quaternary; deviations from expected responses likely reveal influences of competition and/or resource availability. We quantify the degree of niche conservatism and interspecific overlap to assess species and community responses among canids. We also include in our analyses a novel introduced predator, the domestic dog Canis lupus familiaris, which accompanied humans into the New World. We find that endemic canid species display low fidelity to their climatic niche through time, We find that survivors increasingly partition their climatic niche throughout the Holocene and, surprisingly, do not expand into niche space presumably vacated by the extinction of very large carnivores. These results suggest that loss of megaherbivores and competition with humans likely outweighed advantages conferred from the loss of very large predators. We also find that wolves and dogs decrease their niche overlap throughout the Holocene, suggesting a distinctive relationship between dogs and man.     

Are <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hylobates lar</Emphasis> Extirpated from China?

The Nangunhe Nature Reserve in Southwest Yunnan (PRC) has long been presumed to be the last stronghold of lar (or white-handed) gibbons (Hylobates lar) in China and the likely last place of occurrence of Hylobates lar yunnanensis. We conducted a comprehensive survey to assess the status of lar gibbons at Nangunhe. We found no visual or auditory evidence of them still residing at the reserve and therefore tentatively conclude that lar gibbons have become extinct in China. It appears that large-scale destruction of primary forests in the 1960s and 1970s brought about an initial decline in their numbers, and subsequent uncontrolled hunting has resulted in their extirpation. The situation for the six Chinese ape taxa is nothing less than disastrous, with 1 taxon assumed to have become extinct during the last few years, 1 taxon not having been confirmed since the 1980s, and 2 species at the very brink of extinction with only tens of individuals remaining in China.     

Impacts of climate warming and habitat loss on extinctions at species' low-latitude range boundaries

Polewards expansions of species' distributions have been attributed to climate warming, but evidence for climate‐driven local extinctions at warm (low latitude/elevation) boundaries is equivocal. We surveyed the four species of butterflies that reach their southern limits in Britain. We visited 421 sites where the species had been recorded previously to determine whether recent extinctions were primarily due to climate or habitat changes. Coenonympha tullia had become extinct at 52% of study sites and all losses were associated with habitat degradation. Aricia artaxerxes was extinct from 50% of sites, with approximately one‐third to half of extinctions associated with climate‐related factors and the remainder with habitat loss. For Erebia aethiops (extinct from 24% of sites), approximately a quarter of the extinctions were associated with habitat and three‐quarters with climate. For Erebia epiphron, extinctions (37% of sites) were attributed mainly to climate with almost no habitat effects. For the three species affected by climate, range boundaries retracted 70–100 km northwards (A. artaxerxes, E. aethiops) and 130–150 m uphill (E. epiphron) in the sample of sites analysed. These shifts are consistent with estimated latitudinal and elevational temperature shifts of 88 km northwards and 98 m uphill over the 19‐year study period. These results suggest that the southern/warm range margins of some species are as sensitive to climate change as are northern/cool margins. Our data indicate that climate warming has been of comparable importance to habitat loss in driving local extinctions of northern species over the past few decades; future climate warming is likely to jeopardize the long‐term survival of many northern and mountain species.     

Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka

Background

Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN). The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon.

Methods/Principal Findings

We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species'' range. Of these, 5 (5%) are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67%) and found that 17 of these (27%) are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions.

Conclusions/Significance

Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.     

Extinct or still out there? Disentangling influences on extinction and rediscovery helps to clarify the fate of species on the edge

Each year, two or three species that had been considered to be extinct are rediscovered. Uncertainty about whether or not a species is extinct is common, because rare and highly threatened species are difficult to detect. Biological traits such as body size and range size are expected to be associated with extinction. However, these traits, together with the intensity of search effort, might influence the probability of detection and extinction differently. This makes statistical analysis of extinction and rediscovery challenging. Here, we use a variant of survival analysis known as cure rate modelling to differentiate factors that influence rediscovery from those that influence extinction. We analyse a global data set of 99 mammals that have been categorized as extinct or possibly extinct. We estimate the probability that each of these mammals is still extant and thus estimate the proportion of missing (presumed extinct) mammals that are incorrectly assigned extinction. We find that body mass and population density are predictors of extinction, and body mass and search effort predict rediscovery. In mammals, extinction rate increases with body mass and population density, and these traits act synergistically to greatly elevate extinction rate in large species that also occurred in formerly dense populations. However, when they remain extant, larger‐bodied missing species are rediscovered sooner than smaller species. Greater search effort increases the probability of rediscovery in larger species of missing mammals, but has a minimal effect on small species, which take longer to be rediscovered, if extant. By separating the effects of species characteristics on extinction and detection, and using models with the assumption that a proportion of missing species will never be rediscovered, our new approach provides estimates of extinction probability in species with few observation records and scant ecological information.     

The mechanism of background extinction

Following publication of On the Origin of Species, biologists concentrated on and resolved the mechanisms of adaptation and speciation, but largely ignored extinction. Thus, extinction remained essentially a discipline of palaeontology. Adequate language is not available to describe extinction phenomena because they must be discussed in the passive voice, wherein populations simply ‘go extinct’ without reference to process, specifics, effects, or causality. Extinction is also described typically in terms of its dynamics (including rate or risk), and although correlative variables enhance our ability to predict extinction, they do not necessarily enable an understanding of process. Yet background extinction, like evolution, is a process requiring a functional explanation, without which it is impossible to formulate mechanisms. We define the mechanism of background extinction as a typically long‐term, multi‐generational loss of reproductive fitness. This simple concept has received little credence because of a perception that excess generation of progeny ensures population sustainability, and perhaps the misconception that the loss of reproductive fitness somehow constitutes selection against reproduction itself. During environmental shifts, reproductive fitness is compromised when biotic or abiotic extremes consistently exceed existing norms of reaction. Subsequent selection will now favour individual survival over reproductive fitness, initiating long‐term negative selection pressure and population decline. Background extinction consists typically of two intergrading phases: habitat attenuation and habitat dissolution. These processes generate the relict populations that characterize many species undergoing background extinction. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 255–268.     

695. SALVIA CAYMANENSIS

Originally described by Charles Frederick Millspaugh in 1900, Salvia caymanensis Millsp. & Uline, the cayman sage , is known only from Grand Cayman, a Caribbean UK Overseas Territory; it was thought extinct in the wild until its rediscovery in 2007. Although the species is secure ex situ, its in situ future remains uncertain and it has been red listed as critically endangered. S. caymanensis is illustrated, its botanical history described and conservation measures discussed.     

Ecological Predictors of Extinction Risk in the Flora of Lowland England, UK

We used historical and contemporary records to determine the scale of plant extinction in Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, and to assess whether extinct species share a range of ecological and phytogeographical traits. Since 1700 both counties have lost 94 species (11% of their native floras) with the rate of extinction increasing from 3.8 to 4.8 species per decade in the 19th century to 6–8 species per decade after 1950. The most important predictors of extinction risk were English range size and traits associated with habitat specialisation and competitive ability: poor competitors (i.e. short stress-tolerators) associated with open habitats with very low or high pH and soil moisture (e.g. lowland bogs, dwarf-shrub heath and acid and calcareous grassland) were much more likely to have become extinct in the study region than would have been expected by chance alone. Many of these species have very localised distributions and/or occur at the northern, southern or eastern edges of their range in southern England (i.e. Northern and Oceanic). In contrast, there was no clear or significant relationship between extinction and dispersal ability or reproductive mode. These findings, which parallel national trends, indicate that habitat loss and eutrophication have been the main causes of population extinction in lowland England over the last 300 years. However, more fine-scaled studies are required to assess whether ‘low-level’ stresses, such as habitat fragmentation, climate change and atmospheric pollution, are having additional impacts on populations already severely depleted by habitat loss, as well as to quantify changes in the abundance of more widespread species which are known to have declined over the same period.     

Plant traits and extinction in urban areas: a meta‐analysis of 11 cities

Aim Urban environments around the world share many features in common, including the local extinction of native plant species. We tested the hypothesis that similarity in environmental conditions among urban areas should select for plant species with a particular suite of traits suited to those conditions, and lead to the selective extinction of species lacking those traits. Location Eleven cities with data on the plant species that persisted and those that went locally extinct within at least the last 100 years following urbanization. Methods We compiled data on 11 plant traits for 8269 native species in the 11 cities and used hierarchical logistic regression models to identify the degree to which traits could distinguish species that persisted from those that went locally extinct in each city. The trait effects from each city were then combined in a meta‐analysis. Results The cities fell into two groups: those with relatively low rates of extinction (less than 0.05% species per year – Adelaide, Hong Kong, Los Angeles, San Diego and San Francisco), for which no traits reliably predicted the pattern of extinction, and those with higher rates of extinction (> 0.08% species per year – Auckland, Chicago, Melbourne, New York, Singapore and Worcester, MA), where short‐statured, small‐seeded plants were more likely to go extinct. Main conclusions Our analysis reveals patterns in trait selectivity consistent with local studies, suggesting some consistency in trait selection by urbanization. Overall, however, few traits reliably predicted the pattern of plant extinction across cities, making it difficult to identify a priori the extinction‐prone species most likely to be affected by urban expansion.