共查询到20条相似文献,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
《Fungal Ecology》2021
Hericium flagellum is a highly host-dependent wood-inhabiting fungus in Europe. Its occurrence is strongly connected to the distribution of silver fir (Abies alba). We analysed available data describing ecological factors, especially habitat, substrate preferences and phenology, which are regarded as drivers of H. flagellum occurrence. We also implemented ecological niche modelling to determine the potential range of the fungus. More than half of H. flagellum records (57%) were found in high conservation value areas, on fallen trunks of silver fir trees. The basidiomata were predominantly recorded between August and late November. Distribution of the tree host, precipitation in the driest month, isothermality and annual mean temperature were the most decisive factors influencing H. flagellum occurrence. We conclude that the disjunctive range at present, the risk of tree host extinction linked to habitat loss, and the limited dispersal of H. flagellum propagules are the main threats to this species. 相似文献
2.
《Fungal Biology Reviews》2020,34(2):74-88
Species distribution models (SDMs) are an emerging tool in the study of fungi, and their use is expanding across species and research topics. To summarise progress to date and to highlight important considerations for future users, we review 283 studies that apply SDMs to fungi. We found that macrofungi, lichens, and pathogenic microfungi are most often studied. While many studies only aim to model species response to environmental covariates, the use of SDMs for explicitly predicting fungal occurrence in space and time is growing. Many studies collect fungal occurrence data, but the use of pre-collected records from reference collections and citizen science programs is increasing. Challenges of applying SDMs to fungi include detection and sampling biases, and uncertainties in identification and taxonomy. Further, finding environmental covariates at appropriate spatial and temporal scales is important, as fungi can respond to fine-scale environmental patterns. Fine-scale covariate data can be difficult to gather across space, but we show remote-sensing measurements are viable for fungi SDMs. For those fungi interacting with host species, host information is also important, and can be used as covariates in SDMs. We also highlight that competition among fungi, and dispersal, can affect observed distributions, with the latter particularly prominent for invasive fungi. We show how one can account for these processes in models, when suitable data are available. Finally, we note that environmental DNA records create new opportunities and challenges for future modelling efforts, and discuss the difficulties in predicting invasions and climate change impacts. The application of SDMs to fungi has already provided interesting lessons on how to adapt modelling tools for specific questions, and fungi will continue to be relevant test subjects for further technical development of SDMs. 相似文献
3.
Niche conservatism and niche divergence are both important ecological mechanisms associated with promoting allopatric speciation across geographical barriers. However, the potential for variable responses in widely distributed organisms has not been fully investigated. For allopatric sister lineages, three patterns for the interaction of ecological niche preference and geographical barriers are possible: (i) niche conservatism at a physical barrier; (ii) niche divergence at a physical barrier; and (iii) niche divergence in the absence of a physical barrier. We test for the presence of these patterns in a transcontinentally distributed snake species, the common kingsnake ( Lampropeltis getula ), to determine the relative frequency of niche conservatism or divergence in a single species complex inhabiting multiple distinct ecoregions. We infer the phylogeographic structure of the kingsnake using a range-wide data set sampled for the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b . We use coalescent simulation methods to test for the presence of structured lineage formation vs. fragmentation of a widespread ancestor. Finally, we use statistical techniques for creating and evaluating ecological niche models to test for conservatism of ecological niche preferences. Significant geographical structure is present in the kingsnake, for which coalescent tests indicate structured population division. Surprisingly, we find evidence for all three patterns of conservatism and divergence. This suggests that ecological niche preferences may be labile on recent phylogenetic timescales, and that lineage formation in widespread species can result from an interaction between inertial tendencies of niche conservatism and natural selection on populations in ecologically divergent habitats. 相似文献
4.
Valdeir Pereira Lima Cesar Augusto Marchioro Fernando Joner Hans ter Steege Ilyas Siddique 《Austral ecology》2020,45(3):376-383
Forecasting the impacts of climate change on species distribution has several implications for conservation. Plinia edulis is a rare and threatened tree species from Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest. In this study, we assessed the impact of global climate change on the distribution of P. edulis. Additionally, we evaluated the efficacy of the Brazilian protected network to conserve this species. Ecological niche models were built using the maximum entropy method based on occurrence records and environmental predictors. Models predicted a reduction of climatically suitable areas for P. edulis in all evaluated scenarios in the coming years. Furthermore, we observed that Brazilian protected areas (PAs) are ineffective to conserve this species. Given the fact that P. edulis is a promising tree species rarely found within Brazilian PAs and threatened by global climate change, we strongly recommend the cultivation of this multipurpose species in agroforestry systems, landscaping and homegardens in order to promote its conservation through sustainable use. 相似文献
5.
Modelled spatial distribution of marine fish and projected modifications in the North Atlantic Ocean
The objectives of this work were to examine the past, current and potential influence of global climate change on the spatial distribution of some commercially exploited fish and to evaluate a recently proposed new ecological niche model (ENM) called nonparametric probabilistic ecological niche model (NPPEN). This new technique is based on a modified version of the test called Multiple Response Permutation Procedure (MRPP) using the generalized Mahalanobis distance. The technique was applied in the extratropical regions of the North Atlantic Ocean on eight commercially exploited fish species using three environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, bathymetry and sea surface salinity). The numerical procedure and the model allowed a better characterization of the niche (sensu Hutchinson) and an improved modelling of the spatial distribution of the species. Furthermore, the technique appeared to be robust to incomplete or bimodal training sets. Despite some potential limitations related to the choice of the climatic scenarios (A2 and B2), the type of physical model (ECHAM 4) and the absence of consideration of biotic interactions, modelled changes in species distribution explained some current observed shifts in dominance that occurred in the North Atlantic sector, and particularly in the North Sea. Although projected changes suggest a poleward movement of species, our results indicate that some species may not be able to track their climatic envelope and that climate change may have a prominent influence on fish distribution during this century. The phenomenon is likely to trigger locally major changes in the dominance of species with likely implications for socio‐economical systems. In this way, ENMs might provide a new management tool against which changes in the resource might be better anticipated. 相似文献
6.
Heroen Verbruggen † Lennert Tyberghein † Klaas Pauly † Caroline Vlaeminck Katrien Van Nieuwenhuyze Wiebe H.C.F. Kooistra Frederik Leliaert Olivier De Clerck 《Global Ecology and Biogeography》2009,18(4):393-405
Aim Because of their broad distribution in geographical and ecological dimensions, seaweeds (marine macroalgae) offer great potential as models for marine biogeographical inquiry and exploration of the interface between macroecology and macroevolution. This study aims to characterize evolutionary niche dynamics in the common green seaweed genus Halimeda, use the observed insights to gain understanding of the biogeographical history of the genus and predict habitats that can be targeted for the discovery of species of special biogeographical interest. Location Tropical and subtropical coastal waters. Methods The evolutionary history of the genus is characterized using molecular phylogenetics and relaxed molecular clock analysis. Niche modelling is carried out with maximum entropy techniques and uses macroecological data derived from global satellite imagery. Evolutionary niche dynamics are inferred through application of ancestral character state estimation. Results A nearly comprehensive molecular phylogeny of the genus was inferred from a six‐locus dataset. Macroecological niche models showed that species distribution ranges are considerably smaller than their potential ranges. We show strong phylogenetic signal in various macroecological niche features. Main conclusions The evolution of Halimeda is characterized by conservatism for tropical, nutrient‐depleted habitats, yet one section of the genus managed to invade colder habitats multiple times independently. Niche models indicate that the restricted geographical ranges of Halimeda species are not due to habitat unsuitability, strengthening the case for dispersal limitation. Niche models identified hotspots of habitat suitability of Caribbean species in the eastern Pacific Ocean. We propose that these hotspots be targeted for discovery of new species separated from their Caribbean siblings since the Pliocene rise of the Central American Isthmus. 相似文献
7.
Historical patterns of connection and isolation of the impressive biological diversity of the Amazon Basin have been the subject of extensive debate, based on evidence drawn from distributional patterns of endemic species, vegetation histories from palynological studies, and geological studies. We develop species-specific ecological niche models based on current occurrence patterns of 17 species of birds and woody plants, which we project onto modelled Pleistocene (Last Glacial Maximum) climatic patterns to reconstruct past potential distributions of each species. Forest species' distributions showed fragmentation at Last Glacial Maximum and these fragments were coincident spatially, whereas savanna species showed no clear trends. Our results suggest that past climate changes fragmented forest species' ranges within a matrix of uncertain composition. 相似文献
8.
Nesting beaches have a critical role in the life cycle of sea turtles and their survival. Many different factors affect nest site selection, ranging from the composition of the sand to the vegetation of the beach. These factors are subject to change due to the onset of climate change. We aimed to determine the possible changes in nesting beaches according to the future climate scenarios of Chelonia mydas nesting sites in the Mediterranean by ecological niche modeling. Nineteen bioclimatic variables and Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) were used to generate past, current, and future nesting site projections. The datasets were prepared with ArcGIS v10. and bioclimatic variables were analyzed using the Pearson Correlation Analysis. The ecological niche modeling was made with the MaxEnt v4.1.0. Model outputs, mean temperature of warmest quarter (22.01 %), precipitation of coldest quarter (15.32 %), mean temperature of the driest quarter (13.60 %), isothermality (12.30 %), mean diurnal range (9.22 %), the max temperature of the warmest month (6.60 %), precipitation seasonality (5.87 %) and annual mean temperature (4.73 %) are the parameters that most affect the estimated distribution of the species and the other parameters have the least effect on the estimated distribution (each < 2.60 %). The prediction accuracy of the model is measured by the Area Under the Curve (AUC) values, which is between 0 and 1, where values closer to 1 have a greater prediction accuracy. In our model results, the AUC values vary between 0.961 and 0.990. The majority of current green turtle nesting sites will continue to be suitable for nesting into the 2100′s. But the habitat suitability of the current nesting beaches in Syria and Lebanon will decrease. Conservational efforts should be developed to protect not only the current nesting beaches but also other possible nesting beaches that might become viable in the future. 相似文献
9.
《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2017,10(6):472-482
- Phenotypic change across environmental gradients has been an important topic in evolutionary biology. Members of the tortoise beetle tribe Dorynotini are characterised by an elytral suture adorned with either a tubercle or a large, vertical spine. Overall spine height across species had previously been posited to exhibit a latitudinal gradient of increasing height and decreasing width towards the southern extreme of the tribe's range, and this pattern had been linked to environmental variation.
- We explore the evidence behind such a cline by testing associations between climate and morphology across the clade's geographic distribution using an approach based on ecological niche modelling (ENM) and morphological and environmental hypervolumes. The degree of overlap between the respective hypervolumes was assessed, and the correlation of matrix overlap values was quantified using Mantel tests. Degrees of niche similarity and conservatism at the genus level were also assessed using both Schoener's index and Hellinger distances.
- Overall, we observed that characters defining our morphological hypervolumes were informative, and capable of grouping taxa into discrete units in morphospace. In contrast, environmental hypervolumes were largely homogeneous across the tribe, with high overlap among taxa. No significant correlations were found between environmental and morphological hypervolumes.
- Our results indicate that morphological divergence occurs along with high levels of environmental overlap; perhaps historical biogeographic factors along with sexual selection may have promoted its diversification. Our approach based on ENM and statistical comparisons between environmental and morphological hypervolumes can provide a useful approach to testing the existence of gradients and clines.
10.
Gabriel C. Costa Christina Wolfe Donald B. Shepard Janalee P. Caldwell Laurie J. Vitt 《Journal of Biogeography》2008,35(4):637-646
Aim To investigate the influence of climate variables in shaping species distributions across a steep longitudinal environmental gradient.
Location The state of Oklahoma, south-central United States.
Methods We used Geographical Information Systems (GIS) niche-based models to predict the geographic distributions of six pairs of closely related amphibian and reptile species across a steep longitudinal environmental gradient. We compared results from modelling with actual distributions to determine whether species distributions were primarily limited by environmental factors, and to assess the potential roles of competition and historical factors in influencing distributions.
Results For all species pairs, GIS models predicted an overlap zone in which both species should occur, although in reality in some cases this area was occupied by only one of the species. We found that environmental factors clearly influence the distributions of most species pairs. We also found evidence suggesting that competition and evolutionary history play a role in determining the distributions of some species pairs.
Main conclusions Niche-based GIS modelling is a useful tool for investigating species distribution patterns and the factors affecting them. Our results showed that environmental factors strongly influenced species distributions, and that competition and historical factors may also be involved in some cases. Furthermore, results suggested additional lines of research, such as ecological comparisons among populations occurring inside and outside predicted overlap zones, which may provide more direct insight into the roles of competitive interactions and historical factors in shaping species distributions. 相似文献
Location The state of Oklahoma, south-central United States.
Methods We used Geographical Information Systems (GIS) niche-based models to predict the geographic distributions of six pairs of closely related amphibian and reptile species across a steep longitudinal environmental gradient. We compared results from modelling with actual distributions to determine whether species distributions were primarily limited by environmental factors, and to assess the potential roles of competition and historical factors in influencing distributions.
Results For all species pairs, GIS models predicted an overlap zone in which both species should occur, although in reality in some cases this area was occupied by only one of the species. We found that environmental factors clearly influence the distributions of most species pairs. We also found evidence suggesting that competition and evolutionary history play a role in determining the distributions of some species pairs.
Main conclusions Niche-based GIS modelling is a useful tool for investigating species distribution patterns and the factors affecting them. Our results showed that environmental factors strongly influenced species distributions, and that competition and historical factors may also be involved in some cases. Furthermore, results suggested additional lines of research, such as ecological comparisons among populations occurring inside and outside predicted overlap zones, which may provide more direct insight into the roles of competitive interactions and historical factors in shaping species distributions. 相似文献
11.
Emilio García‐Rosell Cstor Guisande Luis Gonzlez‐Vilas Jacinto Gonzlez‐Dacosta Juergen Heine Elisa Prez‐Costas Jorge M. Lobo 《Ecography》2019,42(9):1613-1622
Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly used to predict species distributions from available presence data. However, SDMs results have been criticized for several reasons mainly related to two basic characteristics of most SDMs: 1) general lack of reliable species absence information, 2) the frequent use of an arbitrary geographical extent (GE) or accessible area of the species. These impediments have motivated us to generate a procedure called niche of occurrence (NOO). NOO provides the probable distribution of species (realized niche) relying solely on partial information about presence of species. It operates within a natural geographical extent delimited by available observations and avoids using misleading thresholds to obtain binary presence–absence estimations when the species prevalence is unknown. In this study the main characteristics of NOO are presented, comparing its performance with other recognized and more complex SDMs by using virtual species to avoid the omnipresent error sources of real data sets. 相似文献
12.
Prantik Sharma Baruah Kishor Deka Lipika Lahkar Bhaskar Sarma S.K. Borthakur Bhaben Tanti 《农业工程》2019,39(1):42-49
Elaeocarpus serratus L., commonly known as ‘rudraksh’ referred in the Ayurveda as a wonderful plant for strengthening body constitutions, has been recognized as a threatened plant of Assam, India. Traditionally, rudraksh beads, its bark and leaves are used to cure various ailments like stress, anxiety, depression, nerve pain, epilepsy, migraine, lack of concentration, asthma, hypertension, arthritis and liver diseases. The population stock of the species has been depleting very fast in its natural habitat due to rapid habitat fragmentation and changing climate altering the structural and functional integrity of the plant. Hence, conservation of E. serratus L. with proper scientific investigation to prevent from extinction in its wild habitat is urgently needed. The present study was emphasized with the specific objectives to study the distribution and population status, predication of suitable sites through ENM, standardization of macropropagation methods and reinforcement/reintroduction into the suitable wild habitat to improve conservation status. In the present investigation E. serratus L. was reported in few locations of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh with population sizes of mean density, frequency of occurrence and abundance in relation to other associated species as 0.333, 13.922 and 2.215 respectively. For improving the conservation status, potential area and habitat for reinforcement was predicted using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm. Subsequently, macropropagation protocol was standardized through seed germination and air-layering; saplings were raised and 1050 saplings were reintroduced to the wild habitats selected on the basis of ecological niche modelling. Survival rate was found significantly high as 68%, suggesting that our approach is effective for changing population status and to conserve the plant. 相似文献
13.
14.
《Fungal Ecology》2019
Soil fungi play essential roles in many terrestrial processes, but our knowledge of the forces governing fungal distribution and community composition along broad-scale environmental gradients is still limited. In this study, we explored biogeographic distribution and composition of soil fungal communities associated with 62 tussock grasslands across different regions of Australia. Climatic parameters had only a limited correlation with fungal community structure, while edaphic variables and spatial distance were significantly associated with changes in fungal community composition. We also observed high variations in composition among fungal assemblages from different ecological regions, suggesting some regional endemism in these communities. The discrete distribution of fungi in soil was further confirmed by indicator analysis, which identified distinct indicator operational taxonomic units associated with grasslands from different climatic regions. Finally, fungi with flexible trophic interactions had a central role in the network architecture of both arid and temperate communities. Taken together, the results from our study confirm the prominent role of soil physico-chemical status and geographic location in determining fungal biogeographic patterns over large scales in Australia. 相似文献
15.
Lei Zhang;Isolde van Riemsdijk;Mu Liu;Zhiyong Liao;Armand Cavé-Radet;Jingwen Bi;Shengyu Wang;Yujie Zhao;Peipei Cao;Madalin Parepa;Oliver Bossdorf;Armel Salmon;Malika Aïnouche;Rui-Ting Ju;Jihua Wu;Christina L. Richards;Bo Li; 《Global Change Biology》2024,30(12):e17622
Biological invasions pose a global challenge, affecting ecosystems worldwide and human societies. Knowledge of the evolutionary history of invasive species is critical to understanding their current invasion success and projecting their future spread. However, to date, few studies have addressed the evolutionary history and potential future spread of invaders simultaneously. In this study, we explored both evolutionary history and spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of the distribution of Reynoutria japonica, known as one of the world's worst plant invaders. We analysed 265 R. japonica samples from its current geographical ranges across three continents, using seven chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) markers to establish the phylogenetic relationships among extant populations. We combined these with ecological niche modelling to infer historical and more recent migration patterns and predict potential future distribution changes under climate change. Our results indicate that climate fluctuations and sea level changes likely facilitated the expansion of R. japonica from southern Japan to continental East Asia in the Pliocene, followed by a contraction in East Asian populations. In the recent Holocene, human activities have then enabled a linage of this species to spread from Japan to Europe and North America, resulting in three major global clades. Future climate scenarios suggest a northward expansion of R. japonica in Europe and North America, but shrinking habitat in China. Our study, thus, demonstrates the complex influences of historical climate-driven migrations, human activities and future climate changes on the global distribution of an invasive species. 相似文献
16.
Climatic changes associated with Pleistocene glacial cycles profoundly affected species distributions, patterns of interpopulation gene flow, and demography. In species restricted to montane habitats, ranges may expand and contract along an elevational gradients in response to environmental fluctuations and create high levels of genetic variation among populations on different mountains. The salamander Plethodon fourchensis is restricted to high-elevation, mesic forest on five montane isolates in the Ouachita Mountains. We used DNA sequence data along with ecological niche modelling and coalescent simulations to test several hypotheses related to the effects of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on species in montane habitats. Our results revealed that P. fourchensis is composed of four well-supported, geographically structured lineages. Geographic breaks between lineages occurred in the vicinity of major valleys and a narrow high-elevation pass. Ecological niche modelling predicted that environmental conditions in valleys separating most mountains are suitable; however, interglacial periods like the present are predicted to be times of range expansion in P. fourchensis . Divergence dating and coalescent simulations indicated that lineage diversification occurred during the Middle Pleistocene via the fragmentation of a wide-ranging ancestor. Bayesian skyline plots showed gradual decreases in population size in three of four lineages over the most recent glacial period and a slight to moderate amount of population growth during the Holocene. Our results not only demonstrate that climatic changes during the Pleistocene had profound effects on species restricted to montane habitats, but comparison of our results for P. fourchensis with its parapatric, sister taxon, P. ouachitae , also emphasizes how responses can vary substantially even among closely related, similarly distributed taxa. 相似文献
17.
Cane is one of the important forest products after timber, form an integral part of a rural and tribal population of many of the tropical countries of South East Asia, Africa and America. Calamus nambariensis Becc. has been recognized as endemic and threatened cane to the North East region of India. The plant is restricted to only two pockets of Assam with a poor population size. Therefore, conservation of this plant through proper scientific investigation is utmost necessary. The present investigation has as its objectives to study the distribution, estimation of population size, standardization of suitable micropropagation methods for reintroduction and reinforcement in suitable wild habitat as determined by ecological niche modelling (ENM) for the purposes of conservation. For improving the conservation status of the species, potential area and habitat for reintroduction was determined using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) distribution modelling algorithm. The population size in both the site was found to be very poor i.e., mean density, frequency of occurrence and abundance in relation to other associated species was 0.600, 29.26 and 2.307 in Nambor Reserve Forest whereas 0.526, 27.407 and 2.112 respectively in Gibbon Wildlife Sanctuary. Macropropagation of C. nambariensis was standardized here through seed germination which was found to be more efficient in terms of time and cost which revealed 87% germination in treated seeds, followed by 61% only for untreated seeds till 90 days. It was also observed that seedlings in the hilly slope of Gibbon Wildlife Sanctuary (reinforcement) showed high survivability than that of the hilly slop of Lahorijan Reserve Forest (reintroduction). Further, survival rate was measured for 24 months, which revealed significantly very high on an average of 97.85% in both the locations, while 1200 numbers of C. nambariensis plantlets were transferred to the field. The present study could change the population size of C. nambariensis in its natural habitat, proving effective means for preventing extinction and improving conservation status of the plant. 相似文献
18.
Barriers to dispersal and resulting biogeographic boundaries are responsible for much of life's diversity. Distinguishing the contribution of ecological, historical, and stochastic processes to the origin and maintenance of biogeographic boundaries, however, is a longstanding challenge. Taking advantage of newly available data and methods--including environmental niche models and associated comparative metrics--we develop a framework to test two possible ecological explanations for biogeographic boundaries: (1) sharp environmental gradients and (2) ribbons of unsuitable habitat dividing two highly suitable regions. We test each of these hypotheses against the null expectation that environmental variation across a given boundary is no greater than expected by chance. We apply this framework to a pair of Hispaniolan Anolis lizards (A. chlorocyanus and A. coelestinus) distributed on the either side of this island's most important biogeographic boundary. Integrating our results with historical biogeographic analysis, we find that a ribbon of particularly unsuitable habitat is acting to maintain a boundary between species that initially diverged on distinct paleo-islands, which merged to form present-day Hispaniola in the Miocene. 相似文献
19.
Michael F. Braby Clo Bertelsmeier Chris Sanderson Brian M. Thistleton 《Insect Conservation and Diversity》2014,7(2):132-143
- Documenting the range size and range boundaries of species, and understanding the factors determining changes in these spatial components, is crucial given current rates of anthropogenic climate change and habitat loss. Here, we document the establishment of the acraeine butterfly, Acraea terpsicore, in South‐East Asia (Indonesian islands south of Malay Peninsula, and Timor) and Australia for the first time. We estimate its rate of colonisation and potential for further range expansion in the Indo‐Australian region according to bioclimatic niche models.
- We modelled the potential distribution of the species in the Indo‐Australian region under current climatic conditions and in 2050 following climate change. The bioclimatic niche models were based on five different modelling techniques, three global circulation models (GCMs) and two CO2 emission scenarios (SRES), yielding 30 individual models that were combined in a consensus model.
- Acraea terpsicore became established in Indo‐China (Thailand) during the 1980s and since that time it has spread to other parts of South‐East Asia. It was first recorded on the Australian mainland in the Northern Territory in April 2012 and within a few months of detection was found to occur at six locations, with an estimated extent of occurrence of 4000 km2. Thus, the range size of A. terpsicore has expanded by approximately 6000 km across the equator (c. 32 degrees latitude) in 28 years, with an average rate of colonisation (from Thailand to Australia) of 200 km year−1 (range: 170–230 km year−1).
- The bioclimatic niche models identified additional regions with favourable climatic conditions, and within Australia it is likely to occupy coastal and subcoastal savannah woodlands of the entire monsoon tropics, indicating potential for further range expansion. Moreover, the species' potential range is likely to increase with climate change.
- We hypothesise that habitat modification, particularly rapid deforestation of tropical forest in South‐East during the past three decades, is a major factor accounting for the range expansion given the species' habitat preference for disturbed and open degraded areas. Climate change may be a contributing factor but is unlikely the sole determinant given the spatial area involved and rate of spread.
20.
The conservation of poorly known species is difficult because of incomplete knowledge on their biology and distribution. We studied the contribution of two ecological niche modelling tools, the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (Maxent), in assessing potential ranges and distributional connectivity among 12 of the least known African and Asian viverrids. The level of agreement between GARP and Maxent predictions was low when < 15 occurrences were available, probably indicating a minimum number below that necessary to obtain models with good predictive power. Unexpectedly, our results suggested that Maxent extrapolated more than GARP in the context of small sample sizes. Predictions were overlapped with current land use and location of protected areas to estimate the conservation status of each species. Our analyses yielded range predictions generally contradicting with extents of occurrence established by the IUCN. We evidenced a high level of disturbance within predicted distributions in West and East Africa, Sumatra, and South-East Asia, and identified within West African degraded lowlands four relatively preserved areas that might be of prime importance for the conservation of rainforest taxa. Knowing whether these species of viverrids may survive in degraded or alternative habitats is of crucial importance for further conservation planning. The level of coverage of species suitable ranges by existing and proposed IUCN reserves was low, and we recommend that the total surface of protected areas be substantially increased on both continents. 相似文献